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#FuturesTrades December 20th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

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In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

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President Bush Speeches and Volatility Reaction

Profit/Loss Blotter

Here's another intraday market tendency about the Emini Futures.

Volatility will decrease, more often than not, when President Bush has a speech that's being broadcast by the major financial networks (Bloomberg, CNBC et cetera).

His speeches produces low volatility price action that results in tight trading ranges and few trade opportunities.

Simply, its a good time to either reduce your position size or not trade.

With that said, I had an entry problem (late entry) in my first trade of the day that resulted as a losing trade.

The result of the late entry affected my next trade that resulted as a losing trade.

However, my third trade had a picture perfect entry with some size that resulted in a nice profitable trading day even though my win:loss ratio was 1:2

Just wanted to emphasize again that its not about win:loss ratios. It's about position size management and the points of the winners versus the points of the losers.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of December...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Wed Dec 20 09:28:36 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:28

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<PapaJon> gm all 09:30

<pat255> gm all..

<Chilly> gm

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 790.40 -> large size 09:31

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 791.0 09:32

<NihabaAshi> I missed an entry @ 790.00

Thus, don't have much wiggle room with the 0.40 lost wiggle room 09:33

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 790.0 --> + 1 09:34

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 789.40 --> - 1 09:35

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 789.40

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 790.0 09:36

Covered all ER2 Short @ 789.5 --> + 0.5 09:37

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 789.90 --> - 0.5 09:38

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 789.90

Long ER2 @ 789.80 -> Add 09:39

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1809.50 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 791.00 --> + 1.2 09:40

A little higher and I'll have my profit target for the day. 09:41

<pat255> vn niha ..

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<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1809.50 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 792.00 --> + 2.1 09:42

Holding a few contracts.

<les> Long ER2 @ 791.1

<szubaark> Nice Reversing Niha until u caught the Long.

<les> late, bu i just got here :)

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 791.6 --> + 0.5

<NihabaAshi> I'm bullish but the bipolar ER2 got me good on the quick reverse back down...the volatility change caught me off-guard and had me reversing my Long into a Short :( 09:43

<pat255> still not good at reversing ..but that one must do...nice niha

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1809.50 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:44

<NihabaAshi> Luckily I was able to get Long again at a cheaper price in comparison to my original Long position...got that wiggle room I had needed initially.

<ItalianSharp> niha, in all honesty when you reversed your short the market looked like it was gonna go down and make a new intraday low...shouldnt blame yourself for reversing there...as long as you catch some big move, you are always fine

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 791.1 --> 0

damn, shoulda stayed there :(( 09:45

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 793.00 --> + 3.1

<szubaark> ES,NQ not doing anything :((

<NihabaAshi> Holding 3 contracts

<ItalianSharp> its all ER2 right now 09:46

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 793.1

<eminitrader> morn all 09:51

<szubaark> gm

<pat255> gm emini

<eminitrader> morn pat 09:52

<les> Long ER2 @ 793.3

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 793.40 --> + 3.5

Holding 2 contracts

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1808.75 «« paper »» 09:53

<PapaJon> Bush gonna be speaking shortly... re: troops and iraq

<NihabaAshi> :(

<PapaJon> just a heads up

<NihabaAshi> Thnx Papa.

<ItalianSharp> is he gonna be on cnbc?

<PapaJon> yw 09:54

prolly.. limme check

<NihabaAshi> Whenever Bush is on TV he usually cause me some trade problems because the "volatility" usually drops.

Hopefully ER2 can reach 794 before Bush is on TV.

<PapaJon> not sure bout cnbc... bloomberg and fox is i believe 09:55

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:57

<NihabaAshi> Volatility dropping...market must be getting ready for Bush :(

<ItalianSharp> bush due to speak in 1min 09:59

<NihabaAshi> Volatility is low enough where I'm now expecting a volatilty spike...hopefully upwards.

<ItalianSharp> lol

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.8 --> + 0.5

<ItalianSharp> whenver you say that, you get your volatility spike niha :)

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 793.7 --> - 0.6

<Chilly> oil inventory in 1/2 hr. too

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1814.50 --> - 5.75 «« paper »» 10:00

:((

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 794.00 --> + 4.1

Holding 1 contract

<pat255> vvn niha ...right bias ..

<PapaJon> vn niha

<ItalianSharp> wow, what a trade niha...you are squeezing out all of the juice out of ER2

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<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1815 «« paper »» 10:01

<PapaJon> bush on now

<ItalianSharp> thanks papa, i am watching 10:02

<PapaJon> yw

<NihabaAshi> Via the 15min chart interval...ER2 in the lower part of a key s/r zone.

The upper limit of the s/r zone is 796.10

Could target for milking the price action. 10:03

<ItalianSharp> looks like ER2 is heading to test it

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 795.7 10:04

<szubaark> hopefully we can get few more spikes to upside so i can go Positive for day

<NihabaAshi> Too bad YM is not participating in this upmove in comparison to the others. 10:05

<ItalianSharp> very good volatility thus far, much better than most days we have seen in december 10:06

<RussellDaytrade> Brut, good probabality that short will work for an hour or more 10:07

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 795.0 --> + 0.7

<AmazingJason> yea think some downside to come here too, waiting for some confirmation

<RussellDaytrade> possible HOM, and or HOD 10:08

<NihabaAshi> Volatility very low again...I'm expecting another volatility spike soon and hopefully upwards. 10:12

I guess Bush is still on TV :( 10:18

<ItalianSharp> he is niha 10:19

"victory in iraq is achievable..."...LOL

<NihabaAshi> That unusual tight range up here indicates such (he's still on TV)...market trying to read him.

<ItalianSharp> actually...i think market is waiting for him to stop talking bull....and get the hell out of the press conference so that we all can resume trading... 10:20

i dont think anyone can read bush...he hardly ever makes sense to me 10:21

<NihabaAshi> Looks like the 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report will be precursor for the next big price movement.

Hopefully Bush is off TV when that report is released. 10:22

I'm always suspicious of Bush when he picks a Wednesday to do is speeches that overlap a key Oil report such at the EIA Petroleum Status Report.

<ItalianSharp> i guess he likes to overlap with the oil report because of all his oil interests...god knows what's going on behind the scene...i dont wanna know... 10:25

<NihabaAshi> exit stop raised ER2 @ 793.10 10:26

<pat255> true ..oil was dropping before elections it is going up now...

<NihabaAshi> exit stop raised ER2 @ 793.20 10:34

Volatility trying to pick up...Bush must be nearing the end of his speech or analysts are analyzing his completed speech. 10:43

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 794.9 10:47

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 10:48

<PapaJon> is long question session by press niha

<NihabaAshi> When its all done...we are going to get a late price reaction to the EIA Petroleum Status Report. 10:50

Had the current price action broke out of the tight range that's above 794.00 10:51

<PapaJon> he's done now

<NihabaAshi> I would have said that's the price reaction to the EIA report.

Good...lets see now what happens to the price.

As soon as volatility dies down a little more in Euro and the U.S. Dollar... 10:54

We should see some action in the Eminis.

<PapaJon> no one wants to commit 10:58

<NihabaAshi> Volatility low enough in other key markets for the Eminis to gain some energy now. 11:04

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:06

<szubaark> just when u think its gonna break upside they pull it back 11:10

<RussellDaytrade> 791.7 11:12

<NihabaAshi> Killer low volatility for those trading in and out of this. 11:15

<les> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 794.4 --> + 0.5 11:18

<ItalianSharp> nice patience there les

<les> more like sweaty balls time here :) 11:19

thx

<PapaJon> buy some baby powder les 11:20

i go thru bout one bottle a week

heh

hehe

<szubaark> heheh

<les> nah

i prefer to smeel and sweat

<ItalianSharp> nothing worse than sweaty balls while holding onto a position...lol

<les> keeps the animals away

<PapaJon> uh oh.. 11:21

<szubaark> i tend to bite my nails LOL

<les> careful what ya hold on to at timnes like that

<PapaJon> ... and the discussion degrades...

lol

<les> as usual

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1810.75 --> - 4.25 «« paper »»

<PapaJon> ur fault les

<les> still got one left

contract i mean

<PapaJon> gfy

<les> none o that smut for me 11:22

<szubaark> shitty december price action continues in NQ,ES

<NihabaAshi> Volatility picked up a little too late...we are now in that 1130am - 1:30pm est "Bermuda Triangle" price action. 11:32

Bermuda Triangle: Those that consistently traded it...many are eventually never seen again...mysteriously vanish from the face of the planet :) 11:33

<PapaJon> lol 11:35

i think you can find them...

down at the homeless shelter

<les> so those that trade it are for the chop?

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 794.6 --> + 0.3 11:36

had enough o this

<RussellDaytrade> great trading indicator and analogy

<PapaJon> wazzat RD?

timeline?

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 794.5 «« paper »» 11:37

thats a bermuda T trade

<PapaJon> ah

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:18

<NihabaAshi> Hopefully some buyers will show up to buy the pullback... 12:35

If not...my remaining Long contract will have its trailing stop pick pocketed :( 12:36

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 793.8 --> + 0.7 «« paper »» 12:44

bermuda triangle pulls thru!

thanks Niha, i'm gonna remeber that. 12:45

<codehead> hm, inverted ghost on YM szu 13:00

been in & out getting kitchen remodeled here

<NihabaAshi> Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 793.20 --> + 3.3 13:11

Gotta do some Xmas shopping...

Take care all and see all tomorrow. 13:12

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<RussellDaytrade> did someone say 791.7, ah shucks, missed it again...by a whole dime 13:26

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:30

<AmazingJason> Shorts ER2 @ 791.50 13:34

<Brutus> Nice one RD

<RussellDaytrade> think it wants to test those early am buyers, think it'll hold 790-90.5, first time down 13:36

good enough for now AJ

<AmazingJason> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 790.50 --> + 1 13:37

<RussellDaytrade> nice trade, yopu'll have more ops from higher levels if you still wanna be short 13:38

up targets now 13:39

possibly as high as 3.5 from lows 13:40

<AmazingJason> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 790.80 --> + 0.7

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<RussellDaytrade> if it does climb, expect stall near 791.5-92, near last breakdown lows 13:45

<AmazingJason> Shorts NQ @ 1799.50 -> small size 13:46

<RussellDaytrade> overall, biggger picture, i personally am more inclined to be short then long, with an outr for bear-market type spikes up, (hopefully to sell into), (like this am's, as example) 13:47

with an eye out for

<AmazingJason> Covered all NQ Short @ 1801.25 --> - 1.75 13:50

<pat255> hi all..@office now..:( 14:07

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1437.50 14:23

excellent set-up ..no follow thru :( 14:28

Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 1436.50 --> + 1 14:29

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1437.50

back later

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:42

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1436 --> + 1.5 14:46

<pat255> vn emini.. 14:47

gotta trade es...er can give u heartbrn..

<grenoblois> Long ER2 @ 792.3 14:57

Exited ER2 Long @ 791.5 --> - 0.8 15:03

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 791.5

Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.5 --> - 1 15:13

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:54

<yo> gn all 16:13

<Brutus> CUL8R 16:19

<NihabaAshi_away> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:38

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Dec 20 16:38:24 2006

Google:

#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.


We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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