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#FuturesTrades November 15th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 









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+11.40 +0.0000
$1,140.00 $0.00

Investors Confident FED is in Control

Profit/Loss Blotter

I watched a trader dig himself out of a deep hole of losses via a short position in reaction to the FOMC minutes.

This is an example of how much of an impact key economic reports or events has on our trading results.

The Emini Futures creeper uptrend reflected that we believe the federal reserve is properly managing inflation...enough to give the Dow record new highs.

As for my own trading, today was the last trading day of a key market seasonal tendency that involved the bullish price action of October through mid-November and I wanted to make sure most of my trades and/or was to the Long side.

However, due to one key position error (my second trade) on a Short position...I was in a deep hole soon out of the gate and the trade had impact on how I was trading until early afternoon.

Anyways, a creeper uptrend developed soon after 10am est and they are the toughest to trade because they move on declining low volatility that can easily fool most traders that are shorting the market.

Emini NQ futures gave a nice short signal around 3:33pm est via the 3min chart.

Although I wasn't trading it...I do know some traders that open a Short position via the pattern signal...a pattern signal discussed in the Swing Trading Report.

Key news of the day

By the way, anybody watching Oil prices and Natural Gas prices going back upwards?

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Wed Nov 15 09:27:53 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:27
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<john99> #'s today= Crude # at 10:30, and FOMC minutes at 2pm EST.09:29
<yo> gm all09:30
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 788.50 -> medium size 09:32
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1797.50 paper 09:35
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 786.60 --> - 1.9 09:36

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 786.60

Shorts ER2 @ 786.90 -> Add
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1799.25 --> - 1.75 paper 09:37
Buys NQ @ 1799.25 paper
Quick Reverse LONG
<PapaJon> er2 is bi-polar today
<NihabaAshi> szu, same here.09:38
Covered ER2 Short @ 788.00 --> - 1.4
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 788.00
I'm at a large postion...will add.
<john99> nq hit 180109:39
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 789.20 -> Add
<szubaark> Waiting on ES
<NihabaAshi> I got the size to easily get me profitable...looking for a minimum of 790.2009:40
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1799.25 paper 09:41
<john99> good vol on everything this morning
nq straight up09:42
9:46 spike ~2min09:43
es 1400 hit
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1803.25 --> + 4 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 790.30 --> + 1.1
Trading Edge: 


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<szubaark> Nice Niha.09:44
<NihabaAshi> szu...I had a little problem on my short position...reversed into the same size instead of into a small size.09:45
<szubaark> Today I had no Bias. Last week we had a strong closing, so on Opening Next day i was looking for followthru, all my trades were Long, WRONG.
<NihabaAshi> Had it not been for that position size error...I would be profitable at this moment.
<john99> my nasdaq tick isn't working, anyone else??09:48
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 789.8
Exited all ER2 Long @ 790.1 --> + 0.3 09:50
<john99> smh selling, nq follow09:51
<PapaJon> tickq fine here john
<john99> thx PJ
<PapaJon> yw
<john99> mine is stuck at 9:31 @ -109
<PapaJon> :(09:52
what charting u using?
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 789.40 --> + 1.4

Still holding a few contracts.
<john99> It's IB data feed prob, not changing in TWS
<PapaJon> ah
<jperl> ER2 VWAP 789.0309:53
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 790.00 -> Add 09:55
<jperl> Here is the bid-ask volume spread for ER2 so far....
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_015.png
doesn't look promising to the upside
<john99> er2 leading indix09:56
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 790.70 --> + 0.70 09:57
<john99> er2 to 794,,r2

r1= 794 I mean
<NihabaAshi> Still holding the initial Long position from 788.00
Exited ER2 Long @ 791.50 --> + 3.5 09:59
<john99> strong trendline under er2 from yesterday
<NihabaAshi> Holding a few contrats.
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1802.50 paper
<john99> trend is up!
saw vol @ 791.610:00
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 790.40 --> + 2.4 10:02
<john99> at 23% retrace
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1802.50 paper

3 Tick Stop
<john99> 790 38% fib
amex tick weak10:03
smh near HOD
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 790.50 -> small size
<john99> lots of vol on er2
<RussellDaytrade> 787.5 in 30 minutes, lets see if the engine is firing right this am.
<john99> TONS of Vol,,,excuse me
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 791.00 --> - 0.5 10:04

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 791.00
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1802.50 --> 0 paper
<john99> if it breaks 791.8, I'm looking long

volume weak, dont like upside10:06
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 791.50 --> + 0.5
<john99> dub top
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 791.40 --> + 0.4 10:09
Exited ER2 Long @ 790.50 --> - 0.5 10:10
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 790.50
<john99> 10:15-10:30 top,,?? Thought we would push higher in the morning, doesn't look that way

792 was 123 fib ext from yesterday rally10:11
<NihabaAshi> Volatility is declining fast...its preparing for the 1030am est EIA Oil report...10:12
Usually the volatility will return again around 1015am est.10:13
Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 791.60 --> - 1.1
That's a Add to the Short.10:14
Will leave the trade post error as is...too much of a problem to correct.
<john99> 791.6 key # just broke10:15
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1802.50 paper
<john99> back to #

I see selling here, we got oil # 14min
<szubaark> looking for a upside, Quick Volatility spike BEFORE Report10:16
<john99> keeps coming back to #,,,???10:17
<NihabaAshi> Shorted some more @ 721.10
<john99> markets waiting for #10:18

trendline still not breached10:19

will only short when crossed10:20
<NihabaAshi> Cover all @ 792.70
Back in the red again :(10:21
<john99> er2 strongest this morning10:23

er2 has been strongest for last 2 weeks

I have bear bias right now think we will retrace to 79010:24
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 791.90 -> medium size
<john99> market pretty much the same since 10am10:26

791.8 support10:27

msft new highs

IBM, HD, WMT down trends

smh looks like dub top10:28
<NihabaAshi> Too close to the numbers.
<john99> axp 52 week high, msft near 52week high
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.60 --> - 0.7 10:29
<john99> hpq selling off from 52week high

<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 792.90 -> small size
<john99> looking short10:31
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 792.00 --> - 0.9
<john99> xle spike up!!10:32
<szubaark> real tight in here
<john99> should roll over

er2 cant break 791.810:33

Shorts ER2 @ 792 Scalp

Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.9 --> + 0.1 Scalp 10:34

entry was 792.1 actually

like it matters :)

just dipping my toes in to test the waters10:35

Going to watch XLE today, last week was uptrend most day

er2 back to 791.6 area,,,10:36

seems bearish to me

smh breaking dub top low
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 791.50 -> large size 10:37
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1800 --> - 2.5 paper
<john99> will join short
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1800 paper
<john99> trend line broke10:38
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<john99> hpq getting beat down10:39
xle breakout highs
Shorts ER2 @ 791.9 Scalp 10:40
xle pausing
stop at 792.710:41
looking for 790 38% retrace
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 792.00 --> - 0.5

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 792.00
<john99> xle new highs
<NihabaAshi> Volatility Index just plunge to the downside.

Reason why I reversed into a Long position.10:42
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1802 --> - 2 paper
<NihabaAshi> Don't see that too often.
<szubaark> :((
<john99> moving stop 793.2
<jperl> update on bid-ask volume spread....
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1802 paper
<john99> got stopped out too many times yesterday
<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_016.png
<john99>  Shorts ER2 @ 792.3 Scalp
<szubaark> widening Stop.. otherwise they will Chop me up with no mercy
<jperl> no direction to it10:43
<szubaark> Again.. 10:30 Report was usesell
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 792.40 --> + 0.4 10:44
<john99> we've been up here for an hour, time to reverse
<szubaark> these chop up periods after quick, sudden volatility spikes are getting longer and longer :((10:45
<john99> xle pausing

buy limit for 1 card set at 791.8
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 792.50 -> large size 10:46
<john99> thanks NIHA
<NihabaAshi> Hopefully not :)
<john99> smh lower10:48
<NihabaAshi> :(10:49
<john99> next 2min is critical
<szubaark> geez.. they not gonna make it easy are they :((
<john99> yawn...10:50


stopped out 792.9 1 card

that's what I was afraid of10:51

ym still weak
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 793.10 --> + 0.6
Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 792.80 --> + 0.3 10:52
<john99> well, now that I got stopped out of 1 we can go down. :)
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 793.00 --> + 0.5 10:53
I'm still in the red for the day :(10:54
<john99> I'm red too!!
<NihabaAshi> I wanted to trade all day today after a good night of rest...10:55
<john99> smh and xle are inverse of each other
<NihabaAshi> Looks like I'm going to get my wish but not the way I had planned.
<john99> ym would have been better short for me10:56

were in a box.
<ItalianSharp> niha, only hope is federal reserve at 2pm
that might bring some decent volatility later on
<NihabaAshi> Italian...yes...I plan on trading hard until 1:45pm est and will watch for a little bit after that to see where volatilty is at.10:57
<john99> xle new highs, smh new lows10:58
really want to add to short, but must stick to rules10:59
Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 792.9 --> - 0.6 Scalp
forgot to post that
<NihabaAshi> Unfortunately...volatility is now dying...have to reduce my overall position size.
<john99> er2 needs to break 791.7 for volume to come in11:00
back to my 2nd short entry,,,11:01
ym best short today
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 792.50 -> medium size 11:02
<szubaark> im in the red also so far :( .. Monday was EVEN and Tuesday was up $30!!11:03
<john99> yesterday I churned

need to break 791.7
<szubaark> im basicly honing my skills on ONE CONTRACT.11:04
<john99> the daily candle charts look bullish

volume on smh and nq11:05

xle trending up11:07
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.00 --> + 0.5 11:08
<john99> lets see if it drops
<NihabaAshi> Still in the red but not by much.
Going to a lunch meeting...be back later and hopefully a big move doesn't happen between now and 1230pm est.11:09
<john99>  Shorts ER2 @ 792.2 Scalp
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch
<john99> will try again

smh may be reversing11:12

staying smh going to MA11:14

Shorts ER2 @ 792.7 Scalp

<szubaark> :((
<john99> I told myself I wouldn't short today11:16

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.7 --> - 1 Scalp
<szubaark> learning from mistakes OVER AND OVER again is part of this Gig. we all have this problem.
<john99> originally got my short stopped out, tried to short again and got stopped out again11:17
<Brutus> ES and ER new highs YM and NQ lagging
<john99> smh did reverse, that's what I was watching, but didn't use to my advantage11:18
<Brutus> When Es has a 1 hr sideways consilidation any breakout is strong11:19
But watch for the fakeout bar to reverse
<john99> NYSE tick above 0 most of the day, could just trend up all day11:20

I will not add to this short, I broke that rule 2x today and have lost $200 because of it11:21

I see volume up here

Shorts ER2 @ 793.5 Scalp 11:23

I cant contain myself
<szubaark> u getting signal or just shooting from the hip?11:24
<john99> ticks look bearish and volume above,

Traders Accounting 

As traders we must treat our trading like a business if we are to succeed as traders and as a business. Therefore, waiting till the last few weeks March to prepare for April's taxes is not good for your trading and could put extra stress on your trading during tax month or the months that follow if your one of those traders that filed an extension.. Therefore, its best to be on top of your taxes throughout the year and Traders Accounting is a great resource for such especially if you want to prevent penalties or an audit several years from now.
<szubaark> ER is notorious to creep up like this all day long.11:25
<john99>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 792.3 --> + 1.2 Scalp


Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.2 --> + 0.3 Scalp

smh coming down a bit11:26
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1800.25 --> - 1.75 paper 11:27
dont like this Long and held it for too Long.. just Chop til 2pm FOMC
Down for day more then i like due to the tough Price Action :((
* szubaark is now known as szubaark_away11:28
<john99> back to 791.6 I'm hoping
could be fake out11:29
more volume up here11:30
es retracing11:31
Shorts ER2 @ 793.4 Scalp 11:33
come on shorts11:36
* codehead_afk is now known as codehead11:38
<john99>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.3 --> + 0.1 Scalp 11:39
792.6 here we come, come on
xle new highs
I'm getting impatient11:42
looks like another box11:43
ym retraced, er2 is just too bullish, should have shorted ym instead
smh flat lining11:44
793.8 resisttance11:45
<Brutus> GOOG should break $500 soon11:46
<john99> yikes
<Brutus> Good chance of market drifting down to 133011:47

Choppy downward bias now11:48
<john99> good chance I'm sucking today. :)
793.2-793.8, 0.6 range
where my shorts at?11:49
<Brutus> Go for 0.5 hits on a sideways down trend channel
<john99> nq needs to break 1800
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:50
<john99> I see bull flag and I'm short11:51
lets hope I'm wrong11:52
trend line still underneath, guess I was wrong earlier
12:06 high??11:54
fingers crossed
793.2 broken11:55
stops should be hit 792.711:56
holding 2 short11:57
choppy, move going to come soon12:02
think were going down12:03
nq new highs er2 barely moving12:09
Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.5 --> - 0.1 Scalp
Shorts ER2 @ 793.4 Scalp
12:10 pop12:10
<Brutus> Naq pushing new highs12:12
<jperl> ER2 at 794.4012:15
believe new high for year
<john99> I always seem to lose money on record days12:16

Shorts ER2 @ 794.1 Scalp 12:17
<Brutus> Since you had your long bias from yesterday, put some sticky tape on the sell short button with a big NO! OK :)12:19
<john99> this pattern happens alot, 12:10 high, that my reason for entry12:21
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 793.9
<john99> fading me Pdays???,,,thanks

I'm already in the hole
<jperl> ER2 chart with VWAP.....
http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_017.png
ER2 has been above VWAP since 9:3812:22
<john99> trend down for next 30min,,,I hope12:23

NYSE tick 0 line breached,
<RussellDaytrade> i'd like to buy a vowel, pat.
<pdays> :}
<john99> sorry, U need money to buy a vowel
<pdays> not looking so good
<RussellDaytrade> th eer has climbed approx 23 points in a little over a day, (24 hour period), maybe it takes a break???12:25
<john99> no kidding pday, that'll tech u to fade me,,,MUHAHA
<pdays>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.7 --> - 0.2
<john99> now join the short side,,,luke,,,it is your destiny
<szubaark_away>  Buys NQ @ 1805.50 paper 12:26
lets go Long!
<john99> thanks guys
<szubaark_away> dont fight the FORCE
<john99> kick a guy when he's down

next 2min will tell the tell12:27
<szubaark_away> Russell u not Shorting this?12:28
<john99> trending up all day,,,great,,go me and my shorts12:29
<szubaark_away> heheh.. thats markets job to throw u off EVERYDAY
<Brutus> Szu you really want this to go up dont you, use the Russell, Szu Use the Russell :)
<RussellDaytrade> i would be, anybody not using their account at the moment? mine is tied up in a short that was TOO EARLY.12:30
<john99> I cant,,,,arggggg,,,my arm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
<szubaark_away> Russell u holding Shorts from yersturday?
<john99> Hey RD buddy, I didn't know u were short,,,what a great friend

the rest of you can,,,,,,

<RussellDaytrade> it's on paper. in real life i would have taken the loss long ago.
<szubaark_away> Scaling into losing positions will get you out of doo-doo most of the time, BUT there will come a day when you WILL PAY. I see it happen to a bunch of hardheads12:32
<john99> when I scale in, is when I lose, happens everytime
this time will be different,,,because,,,ummmm12:33
<RussellDaytrade> that breakout superceded yesterday, carried some today. it'll get reeled in. painfull in the meantime.
<Brutus> Been there Szu, you just have to define it and stick to it. Be willing to take a loss
<szubaark_away>  in this room alone last 4 years 5-10 hardheads busted up that way.

yeah and that loss u take will be YOUR LAST12:34
<john99> I agree
<RussellDaytrade> sounds like you are speaking from experience there szu.12:35
<szubaark_away> scaling in/out gives u false sense of security then WHAM!
<Brutus> No I dont let is go that much. Last big one Sept 19th $2300 loss for the day

But the first was really $160012:36

i should have stopped then
<szubaark_away> Russell im a one contract schmuck.12:37
<Brutus> The second trade was in the afternnon and I was not in sound state to trade
<john99> what's everyone think, where we goin in next 15min
<Brutus> So I now know better:)12:38
<pdays> sideways
<Brutus> But happy to takea 2k loss
<RussellDaytrade> some days chicken, some days feathers. tomorrow may be the shorts day in the sun, or perhaps even later today.12:39
<john99>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.8 --> + 0.3 Scalp 12:40
<Brutus> You just have to pick a style that suits your personality12:41
I am not a revenge trader
I just call it quits for the day
<john99> I told myself no short today,,,12:42
* NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi
<Brutus> Tie a piece of string around your finger John, No Shorting :)
<john99> just going to hold these last 2 cards, see how much more pain I can take12:43
xle rolling over12:44
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 793.80 -> small size 12:45
<john99> we've gone no where in last 90min
thanks NIHA
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 794.20 --> - 0.4 12:48

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 794.20
<john99>  Shorts ER2 @ 794.1 Scalp
<NihabaAshi> Position at a large
<john99> as soon as I entered it spike another .2 pts12:49
<NihabaAshi> john...why do you say "thanks NIHA" ???12:51
<john99> u joined me on the short side12:52
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 794.80 --> + 0.6
<john99> oh, u did for a second there12:53
<NihabaAshi> The size fixed the prior trade...rest just extra.
<john99> tick above 0, never should have shorted12:54
<Brutus> ES holding the 20 ema nicely today
<john99> counter trend trading today, I told myself yesterday not to12:55
I'm too stubburn
1pm reversal,,,12:56
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:59
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 794.30 --> + 0.1
<john99> 1hr till minutes13:00
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 794.40 -> small size 13:05
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 794.3 13:07
<john> hhello13:10
<pdays>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 794.5 --> + 0.2 13:12
<john> if we dont go down, I'm done
tons of volume here, big block trade on IWM13:13
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 794.70 --> + 0.3 13:14

ER2 and ES has been in a "creeper uptrend" since 10am est that's marked by declining volatility = Lots of false impressions on the Short side.13:16
<john> think that was the top13:18
40min to minutes
I need to get out of my position
<NihabaAshi> John...you countdown feels like there's a bomb in here :)13:20
<john> before the #
there is, and I'm sitting on it, getting ready to blow up my account, I had a bad feeling about today13:21
<NihabaAshi> What's your definition of a "blow up" ???

My definition equals more than 1/2 of my monthly profits or similar like.
<john> 1k loss for the day will be real bad, 2/3 the way there13:22
<NihabaAshi> Thus, if I only have 2k profits for the month and I lose 1/2 or more in one trading day...

It's a blow up day for me.
<john> sorry to hear that, I'm going to join u it looks like13:23
I need er2 to drop 2pts to come close to break even
<NihabaAshi> john...I'm in the green but not with commissions.
<john> Oh,
more volume up here13:24
<NihabaAshi> I've gotten to the point that a "blow up" is when NOTHING went right for that particular trading day.13:25

I can have bad losing day and if it occurred via sticking to the plan...13:26

It doesn't feel as bad.
<john> 1k here13:27
just trend line never broke
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 795.70 -> small size 13:28
<john> anticipating I'll cover
I see too much volume up here to cover
30min to #,
xle rolling over13:29
smh new high
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 795.40 -> Add 13:31
<john> crap13:33
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 796.10 --> + 0.7
<john> way to go Niha
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 79630 --> + 78834.3 13:34

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 796.30 --> + 0.6
<john> er2 to 800????????
<NihabaAshi> Today is the last trading day of the "BULLISH" market seasonal pattern that ends mid November.13:35
<john> 25min
er2 strongest
<NihabaAshi> I'm now green for the day and hopefully the FOMC minutes can help me reach my profit target for today.
<john> good luck, I'm stupid13:36
<NihabaAshi> john...your chart analysis still has you with a Short bias ?13:37
<john> no, I'm just too stubburn
I was never short biased, I took a short scalp and dug a deep hole13:38
<NihabaAshi> Scalp or position trade ?
<john> scalp
which I added to, this is how I screw up
I'm done13:39
lots of volume here
I'm shorting
Shorts ER2 @ 796.8 Scalp
<NihabaAshi> How long do your scalps typically last and can you use that average time as a time stop?13:40
<john> should last no more than 6min
I screwed up
<NihabaAshi> Ok...than any trade beyond 6mins long is a warning sign.

What's your average scalp profit?13:42
<john> thanks
<NihabaAshi> On trading days where your struggling bad...that's when you need to stick with your "stats" just in case you lose your perspective of what the market is doing.

Example, if your average profitable scalp is 4 ticks and your having a bad trading day...13:43

As soon as you reach a 4 tick profit...take the profit.

It gives you a profit, gets you out of the trade and allows for you to take a deep breadth before the next trade.13:44
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 796.6 paper
<NihabaAshi> I got into a hole today but went back to my stats about the overall November volatility and the afternoon rallies...13:45

It's the only reason why I'm green at the moment.
<yo> tx niha13:47



Mentally getting away from trading is much harder to do in comparison to physically getting away from trading when its time for some rest and relaxation. Personally, one of my favorite ways to mentally rest is to watch movies I've copy & recorded from the local video store via my Slysoft software that copies any copyright protected dvd's and cd's.
   Slysoft - Copy and DVD or CD
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 797.00 -> small size 13:49
<yo> indd stick too your plan en no emotion, but ooh so difficult
<john> 99min13:51


I'm still in the trade, crap
<NihabaAshi> I will add quickly to this contract to bring it to a very large size position if volatility moves prices upwards.13:53
<Brutus> Should pull back in the next 5 mins, I would not be short going into this.
<john> 6min
<NihabaAshi> If it drops drastically...no big deal and I'm still profitable for the day.
<john> I'm scared,,,,real scared13:54
4min before blow up13:56
3pts to 800
<NihabaAshi> Still no volatility spike and volatility is declining since my entry.13:57
<pdays> 2 min13:58
<john> Im short 4
<Brutus> I'm starting to think short hmmm13:59
<john> I'm in the hole big time already fade me
<pdays> out14:00
<john> sell off baby
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 796.20 --> - 0.8
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 796.20
<john> leets gooo
<NihabaAshi> 3 contract short
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 795.1 --> - 13.4 paper 14:01
<john> holding this piece of crap
<RussellDaytrade> that was supposed to be cover one.
<NihabaAshi> I'm keeping it on the light side...in profit protection mode.14:02
<RussellDaytrade> (should have covered the others long ago.
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 795.40 --> + 0.8
<RussellDaytrade> do we now have a trend change???14:03
<john> lower!!!!!!!!!
<Brutus> Sox bullish div14:04
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 795.70 --> + 0.5
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 795.3 paper 14:05
<john> still short
<NihabaAshi> Its getting jumpy...tightning up my trailing stop.14:07
<john> need to retrace 2pts more14:08
this is consolidation before 2nd leg
<NihabaAshi> You can always tak some profits...reenter on a bounce back up is your analysis is sure it will drop further.14:09
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 796 -> Add paper
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 796.10 --> + 0.1
<john> we dropped to 23% fib
we are bouncing
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 796.50 -> small size 14:10
<john> no volume on the bounce
<NihabaAshi> 1 contract only
<Brutus> NQ new highs
<john> ym near high
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:11
<Brutus>  Long ER2 @ 796.3 paper
<RussellDaytrade>  Shorts ER2 @ 796.8 -> Add paper 14:12
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 796.90 --> - 0.4

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 796.90
<john> ccrap
<NihabaAshi> 3 contract long
<john> ym and es new highs, russel weak14:13
<NihabaAshi> ER2 not following the others right now :(
<john> yep
<NihabaAshi> It's got some catching up to do.
<john> tons of voume on ym14:14
we could selloff at dub top here
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 796.70 --> - 0.2 14:15
<john> ticks bearish
needs to break 796.4 for short14:16
<Brutus>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 796.4 --> + 0.1 paper 14:17

Exited all ER2 Long @ 796.4 --> + 0.1 paper
<john> needs more volume14:19
smh lower
needs to break 795
ym showing support
looks bearish14:22
needs volume
<szubaark_away>  Exited all Long NQ at 1808 --> + 2.5 paper 14:24
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 796.00 -> small size 14:25
<john> 793.6 is 38% fib retrace from todays high14:26

slow MA acting as support14:27

ym not bouncing like er2

looking for 793.614:28
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 795.3 --> + 1.5 paper
<NihabaAshi> Geeesh...
<john> I could go positive today,,,it is possible
<RussellDaytrade> trend change
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 794.60 --> + 1.4
<szubaark_away>  Shorts NQ @ 1805 paper 14:29
<john> buy limt at 793.1
volume here
we will go to 38% guranteed
<RussellDaytrade> that trade was meant to represent covering the lower short sale, 795.3, and keeping higher ones on.
<john> holding 4
22more min14:31
2more min I mean
<NihabaAshi> I feel like the Bears vs. Cardinals...horrible first half and nice second half to win the game.
<john> I might win today, I was freaking out all day14:32
need to foucs
good time to short
<NihabaAshi> My data just stopped :(14:33

I'm done for the day when I exit my last contract in this short position.
<RussellDaytrade> 94.3
still down?
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<john> 794.2 breaking pt14:35
<RussellDaytrade> measured move down14:36

take a little off john14:37
<john> ym moving down 38% hit
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi14:38
<RussellDaytrade>  Covered all ES Short @ 793.1 --> + 2.2 paper 14:39
<john> positive for the day,,,,TAKE BOW,,,,,14:43
<szubaark_away>  Covered all Short NQ at 1802.50 --> + 2.5 paper
<john>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.8 --> + 4 Scalp
<RussellDaytrade> tough way to make a buck john, you must be ready for the showers!14:44
<john> I haven't eatin anything all day
<szubaark_away> Im BREAKEVEN but commissions make me DOWN FOR DAY.. those damn commissions!
<RussellDaytrade> goos way to lose weight, trade thge russell.
<Brutus> John "I live for PAIN" :)
<john> I stuck to my short, just couldn't accept this slow trend up without a reverse reaction, I was freaking out before the # came, but decided to take the gamble14:45
<RussellDaytrade> rephrase that to, 'I live for victory!'
<szubaark_away> yeah John... Longevitity is the name of the game.. dont want to take too many hits to give some

"The Raging Bull" LOL14:46
<Brutus> Victory through pain, I'm happy your positive today.
<john> Thanks GUYS,,,you all were telling me the right things today, and I should have listening

I should have stopped shorting, I'm lucky today14:47

Lucky to live another day

at 1pt I was -$1,500,,,know I'm at $62,,,,:)14:48

Going for some food
<RussellDaytrade> 2 lucky days, close dthat short yesterday in the nick of time.
<john> sorry, my grammar is bad when brain is low on food,

Agreed RD, tried counter trend trading yesterday and almost got my head handed to my14:49

<RussellDaytrade> out for 20 minutes.
<john> looks like a short setup, however we are too close to 3pm14:52

3:06 could be interesting, if we continue down trend, we could see some good selling14:55

today we saw a 3 phase move, 1 down(correct direction) 2 up, and 3 down.14:57

If we go down more, 791.6 would be 61% and also key # from this morning14:59

anyone still trading15:01

buy bots15:02
<NihabaAshi> This thing has a chance to do a volatility spike either continuing downward into the 7941.50 price are or make new intraday highs in the last 45mins of trading.15:08
<john> I think higher
<GoodMood> I think lower
<NihabaAshi> john...you covered your short ?15:09
<john> yep, I'm positive now, did you hear..:)
buying pullbacks15:10
<NihabaAshi> I saw a post that said you were "AT" $62 profit.
<john> yep,,,OHHHH,,,,,YEAHHH!!
<NihabaAshi> However, the way it was worded was as if it was still an Open position.
<john> nope, closed all positions15:11
<NihabaAshi> Ok...good.
<john> looking for pullback
<NihabaAshi> I'm still short a contract...playing with house money sort'uv speak to see if I can keep this trade by the close without my trailing stop being hit for a 1 tick profit at 795.9015:12

If volatility picks up...I'll dump it.

At whatever price prior to my trailing stop being pick pocketed.15:13
<john>  Long ER2 @ 795 Scalp 15:17
bought a little while ago, in the hole now,15:18
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:23
<john99> buying15:27
ym will pop
large block trade IWM15:28
ssmh trending up15:30
need to break 79515:31
should come soon
2min 2 target15:32
big drop on smh15:33
<GoodMood> smh = ?
<john99> sox
<GoodMood> thx15:34
<john99> er2 strongest right now15:38
stopped out15:40
<jperl> for those of you interested.....15:42

I've posted a TotalMarkets chart overlayed withe the ER2 chart here...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_018.png15:43

the light blue bars are ER2 data....
<GoodMood> thx jperl !
<jperl> the red/green bars are the TotalMarket data....
<GoodMood> I appreciate it
<jperl> You will note how closely ER2 follows the TotalMarket

regardless of whether you are a scalper or a trend follower trader....15:44

The totalmarket movement is worth knowing before your entry
<yo> gn all15:52
<NihabaAshi> volatility picking up15:59
<john99> I went short when my long failed, now it back to my buy pt16:00
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 594.70 --> + 201.3 16:01


Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 794.70 --> + 1.3

I'm done for the day and a good finish on a trading day that was tough out of the gate.16:03
<john99> I did terrible today, but made some back
<NihabaAshi> John...its ok to have a tough trading day a few times per month.16:05

Just make sure you give everything a good review tonight.
<john99> I know, I felt bad going into today, I'm short 1 card right now at 793.816:06
<NihabaAshi> Go over your trading plan and make notes for your daily journal about what how you interacted in the market today.
<john99> I will
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:32
<NihabaAshi> Today officially ends the October to mid November bullish rally via the market seasonal tendency.16:41
For the remainder of the month...volatility will be a big issue and low volatility trading conditions can easily setup false Short signals.16:42
Take care and see all tomorrow.
* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Nov 15 16:42:57 2006

Think Geek


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