#FuturesTrades November 15th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log
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In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.
Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.
Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
ER2 EuroFX EC +11.40 +0.0000 $1,140.00 $0.00
Investors Confident FED is in Control
I watched a trader dig himself out of a deep hole of losses via a short position in reaction to the FOMC minutes.
This is an example of how much of an impact key economic reports or events has on our trading results.
The Emini Futures creeper uptrend reflected that we believe the federal reserve is properly managing inflation...enough to give the Dow record new highs.
As for my own trading, today was the last trading day of a key market seasonal tendency that involved the bullish price action of October through mid-November and I wanted to make sure most of my trades and/or was to the Long side.
However, due to one key position error (my second trade) on a Short position...I was in a deep hole soon out of the gate and the trade had impact on how I was trading until early afternoon.
Anyways, a creeper uptrend developed soon after 10am est and they are the toughest to trade because they move on declining low volatility that can easily fool most traders that are shorting the market.
Emini NQ futures gave a nice short signal around 3:33pm est via the 3min chart.
Although I wasn't trading it...I do know some traders that open a Short position via the pattern signal...a pattern signal discussed in the Swing Trading Report.
By the way, anybody watching Oil prices and Natural Gas prices going back upwards?
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of November...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Wed Nov 15 09:27:53 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:27 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <john99> #'s today= Crude # at 10:30, and FOMC minutes at 2pm EST. 09:29 <yo> gm all 09:30 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 788.50 -> medium size 09:32 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1797.50 «« paper »» 09:35 <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 786.60 --> - 1.9 09:36 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 786.60 Shorts ER2 @ 786.90 -> Add <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1799.25 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 09:37 Buys NQ @ 1799.25 «« paper »» Quick Reverse LONG <PapaJon> er2 is bi-polar today <NihabaAshi> szu, same here. 09:38 Covered ER2 Short @ 788.00 --> - 1.4 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 788.00 I'm at a large postion...will add. <john99> nq hit 1801 09:39 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 789.20 -> Add <szubaark> Waiting on ES <NihabaAshi> I got the size to easily get me profitable...looking for a minimum of 790.20 09:40 <szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1799.25 «« paper »» 09:41 <john99> good vol on everything this morning nq straight up 09:42 9:46 spike ~2min 09:43 es 1400 hit <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1803.25 --> + 4 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 790.30 --> + 1.1 Trading Edge: If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading and swing trading with a money back guaranteed policy...click here. Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <szubaark> Nice Niha. 09:44 <NihabaAshi> szu...I had a little problem on my short position...reversed into the same size instead of into a small size. 09:45 <szubaark> Today I had no Bias. Last week we had a strong closing, so on Opening Next day i was looking for followthru, all my trades were Long, WRONG. <NihabaAshi> Had it not been for that position size error...I would be profitable at this moment. <john99> my nasdaq tick isn't working, anyone else?? 09:48 <pdays> Long ER2 @ 789.8 Exited all ER2 Long @ 790.1 --> + 0.3 09:50 <john99> smh selling, nq follow 09:51 <PapaJon> tickq fine here john <john99> thx PJ <PapaJon> yw <john99> mine is stuck at 9:31 @ -109 <PapaJon> :( 09:52 what charting u using? <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 789.40 --> + 1.4 Still holding a few contracts. <john99> It's IB data feed prob, not changing in TWS <PapaJon> ah <jperl> ER2 VWAP 789.03 09:53 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 790.00 -> Add 09:55 <jperl> Here is the bid-ask volume spread for ER2 so far.... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_015.png doesn't look promising to the upside <john99> er2 leading indix 09:56 <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 790.70 --> + 0.70 09:57 <john99> er2 to 794,,r2 r1= 794 I mean <NihabaAshi> Still holding the initial Long position from 788.00 Exited ER2 Long @ 791.50 --> + 3.5 09:59 <john99> strong trendline under er2 from yesterday <NihabaAshi> Holding a few contrats. <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1802.50 «« paper »» <john99> trend is up! saw vol @ 791.6 10:00 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 790.40 --> + 2.4 10:02 <john99> at 23% retrace <szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1802.50 «« paper »» 3 Tick Stop <john99> 790 38% fib amex tick weak 10:03 smh near HOD <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 790.50 -> small size <john99> lots of vol on er2 <RussellDaytrade> 787.5 in 30 minutes, lets see if the engine is firing right this am. <john99> TONS of Vol,,,excuse me <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 791.00 --> - 0.5 10:04 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 791.00 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1802.50 --> 0 «« paper »» :( <john99> if it breaks 791.8, I'm looking long volume weak, dont like upside 10:06 <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 791.50 --> + 0.5 <john99> dub top <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 791.40 --> + 0.4 10:09 Exited ER2 Long @ 790.50 --> - 0.5 10:10 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 790.50 <john99> 10:15-10:30 top,,?? Thought we would push higher in the morning, doesn't look that way 792 was 123 fib ext from yesterday rally 10:11 <NihabaAshi> Volatility is declining fast...its preparing for the 1030am est EIA Oil report... 10:12 Usually the volatility will return again around 1015am est. 10:13 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 791.60 --> - 1.1 Ooopps... That's a Add to the Short. 10:14 Will leave the trade post error as is...too much of a problem to correct. <john99> 791.6 key # just broke 10:15 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1802.50 «« paper »» <john99> back to # I see selling here, we got oil # 14min <szubaark> looking for a upside, Quick Volatility spike BEFORE Report 10:16 <john99> keeps coming back to #,,,??? 10:17 <NihabaAshi> Shorted some more @ 721.10 <john99> markets waiting for # 10:18 trendline still not breached 10:19 will only short when crossed 10:20 <NihabaAshi> Cover all @ 792.70 Back in the red again :( 10:21 <john99> er2 strongest this morning 10:23 er2 has been strongest for last 2 weeks I have bear bias right now think we will retrace to 790 10:24 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 791.90 -> medium size <john99> market pretty much the same since 10am 10:26 791.8 support 10:27 msft new highs IBM, HD, WMT down trends smh looks like dub top 10:28 <NihabaAshi> Too close to the numbers. <john99> axp 52 week high, msft near 52week high <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.60 --> - 0.7 10:29 <john99> hpq selling off from 52week high #...... <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 792.90 -> small size <john99> looking short 10:31 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 792.00 --> - 0.9 <john99> xle spike up!! 10:32 <szubaark> real tight in here <john99> should roll over er2 cant break 791.8 10:33 Shorts ER2 @ 792 «« Scalp »» Covered all ER2 Short @ 791.9 --> + 0.1 «« Scalp »» 10:34 entry was 792.1 actually like it matters :) just dipping my toes in to test the waters 10:35 Going to watch XLE today, last week was uptrend most day er2 back to 791.6 area,,, 10:36 seems bearish to me smh breaking dub top low <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 791.50 -> large size 10:37 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1800 --> - 2.5 «« paper »» <john99> will join short <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1800 «« paper »» <john99> trend line broke 10:38 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <john99> hpq getting beat down 10:39 xle breakout highs Shorts ER2 @ 791.9 «« Scalp »» 10:40 xle pausing stop at 792.7 10:41 looking for 790 38% retrace <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 792.00 --> - 0.5 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 792.00 <john99> xle new highs <NihabaAshi> Volatility Index just plunge to the downside. Reason why I reversed into a Long position. 10:42 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1802 --> - 2 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Don't see that too often. <szubaark> :(( <john99> moving stop 793.2 <jperl> update on bid-ask volume spread.... <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1802 «« paper »» <john99> got stopped out too many times yesterday <jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_016.png <john99> Shorts ER2 @ 792.3 «« Scalp »» <szubaark> widening Stop.. otherwise they will Chop me up with no mercy <jperl> no direction to it 10:43 <szubaark> Again.. 10:30 Report was usesell <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 792.40 --> + 0.4 10:44 <john99> we've been up here for an hour, time to reverse <szubaark> these chop up periods after quick, sudden volatility spikes are getting longer and longer :(( 10:45 <john99> xle pausing buy limit for 1 card set at 791.8 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 792.50 -> large size 10:46 <john99> thanks NIHA <NihabaAshi> Hopefully not :) <john99> smh lower 10:48 <NihabaAshi> :( 10:49 <john99> next 2min is critical <szubaark> geez.. they not gonna make it easy are they :(( <john99> yawn... 10:50 :) stopped out 792.9 1 card that's what I was afraid of 10:51 ym still weak <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 793.10 --> + 0.6 Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 792.80 --> + 0.3 10:52 <john99> well, now that I got stopped out of 1 we can go down. :) <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 793.00 --> + 0.5 10:53 I'm still in the red for the day :( 10:54 <john99> I'm red too!! <NihabaAshi> I wanted to trade all day today after a good night of rest... 10:55 <john99> smh and xle are inverse of each other <NihabaAshi> Looks like I'm going to get my wish but not the way I had planned. <john99> ym would have been better short for me 10:56 were in a box. <ItalianSharp> niha, only hope is federal reserve at 2pm that might bring some decent volatility later on <NihabaAshi> Italian...yes...I plan on trading hard until 1:45pm est and will watch for a little bit after that to see where volatilty is at. 10:57 <john99> xle new highs, smh new lows 10:58 really want to add to short, but must stick to rules 10:59 Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 792.9 --> - 0.6 «« Scalp »» forgot to post that <NihabaAshi> Unfortunately...volatility is now dying...have to reduce my overall position size. <john99> er2 needs to break 791.7 for volume to come in 11:00 back to my 2nd short entry,,, 11:01 ym best short today <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 792.50 -> medium size 11:02 <szubaark> im in the red also so far :( .. Monday was EVEN and Tuesday was up $30!! 11:03 <john99> yesterday I churned need to break 791.7 <szubaark> im basicly honing my skills on ONE CONTRACT. 11:04 <john99> the daily candle charts look bullish volume on smh and nq 11:05 xle trending up 11:07 <NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.00 --> + 0.5 11:08 <john99> lets see if it drops <NihabaAshi> Still in the red but not by much. Going to a lunch meeting...be back later and hopefully a big move doesn't happen between now and 1230pm est. 11:09 <john99> Shorts ER2 @ 792.2 «« Scalp »» * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_lunch <john99> will try again smh may be reversing 11:12 staying smh going to MA 11:14 Shorts ER2 @ 792.7 «« Scalp »» crap 11:15 <szubaark> :(( <john99> I told myself I wouldn't short today 11:16 Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.7 --> - 1 «« Scalp »» <szubaark> learning from mistakes OVER AND OVER again is part of this Gig. we all have this problem. <john99> originally got my short stopped out, tried to short again and got stopped out again 11:17 <Brutus> ES and ER new highs YM and NQ lagging <john99> smh did reverse, that's what I was watching, but didn't use to my advantage 11:18 <Brutus> When Es has a 1 hr sideways consilidation any breakout is strong 11:19 But watch for the fakeout bar to reverse <john99> NYSE tick above 0 most of the day, could just trend up all day 11:20 I will not add to this short, I broke that rule 2x today and have lost $200 because of it 11:21 I see volume up here Shorts ER2 @ 793.5 «« Scalp »» 11:23 I cant contain myself <szubaark> u getting signal or just shooting from the hip? 11:24 <john99> ticks look bearish and volume above, Sponsor: As traders we must treat our trading like a business if we are to succeed as traders and as a business. Therefore, waiting till the last few weeks March to prepare for April's taxes is not good for your trading and could put extra stress on your trading during tax month or the months that follow if your one of those traders that filed an extension.. Therefore, its best to be on top of your taxes throughout the year and Traders Accounting is a great resource for such especially if you want to prevent penalties or an audit several years from now. <szubaark> ER is notorious to creep up like this all day long. 11:25 <john99> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 792.3 --> + 1.2 «« Scalp »» oops Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.2 --> + 0.3 «« Scalp »» smh coming down a bit 11:26 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1800.25 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 11:27 dont like this Long and held it for too Long.. just Chop til 2pm FOMC Down for day more then i like due to the tough Price Action :(( * szubaark is now known as szubaark_away 11:28 <john99> back to 791.6 I'm hoping could be fake out 11:29 more volume up here 11:30 es retracing 11:31 Shorts ER2 @ 793.4 «« Scalp »» 11:33 come on shorts 11:36 * codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:38 <john99> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.3 --> + 0.1 «« Scalp »» 11:39 rollover,,, 11:41 792.6 here we come, come on xle new highs I'm getting impatient 11:42 looks like another box 11:43 ym retraced, er2 is just too bullish, should have shorted ym instead smh flat lining 11:44 793.8 resisttance 11:45 <Brutus> GOOG should break $500 soon 11:46 <john99> yikes <Brutus> Good chance of market drifting down to 1330 11:47 Choppy downward bias now 11:48 <john99> good chance I'm sucking today. :) 793.2-793.8, 0.6 range where my shorts at? 11:49 <Brutus> Go for 0.5 hits on a sideways down trend channel <john99> nq needs to break 1800 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:50 <john99> I see bull flag and I'm short 11:51 lets hope I'm wrong 11:52 trend line still underneath, guess I was wrong earlier 12:06 high?? 11:54 volume fingers crossed 793.2 broken 11:55 stops should be hit 792.7 11:56 holding 2 short 11:57 choppy, move going to come soon 12:02 think were going down 12:03 nq new highs er2 barely moving 12:09 Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.5 --> - 0.1 «« Scalp »» Shorts ER2 @ 793.4 «« Scalp »» 12:10 pop 12:10 <Brutus> Naq pushing new highs 12:12 <jperl> ER2 at 794.40 12:15 believe new high for year <john99> I always seem to lose money on record days 12:16 Shorts ER2 @ 794.1 «« Scalp »» 12:17 <Brutus> Since you had your long bias from yesterday, put some sticky tape on the sell short button with a big NO! OK :) 12:19 <john99> this pattern happens alot, 12:10 high, that my reason for entry 12:21 <pdays> Long ER2 @ 793.9 <john99> fading me Pdays???,,,thanks I'm already in the hole <jperl> ER2 chart with VWAP..... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_017.png ER2 has been above VWAP since 9:38 12:22 <john99> trend down for next 30min,,,I hope 12:23 NYSE tick 0 line breached, <RussellDaytrade> i'd like to buy a vowel, pat. <pdays> :} <john99> sorry, U need money to buy a vowel lower 12:24 <pdays> not looking so good <RussellDaytrade> th eer has climbed approx 23 points in a little over a day, (24 hour period), maybe it takes a break??? 12:25 <john99> no kidding pday, that'll tech u to fade me,,,MUHAHA <pdays> Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.7 --> - 0.2 <john99> now join the short side,,,luke,,,it is your destiny <szubaark_away> Buys NQ @ 1805.50 «« paper »» 12:26 lets go Long! <john99> thanks guys <szubaark_away> dont fight the FORCE <john99> kick a guy when he's down next 2min will tell the tell 12:27 <szubaark_away> Russell u not Shorting this? 12:28 <john99> trending up all day,,,great,,go me and my shorts 12:29 <szubaark_away> heheh.. thats markets job to throw u off EVERYDAY <Brutus> Szu you really want this to go up dont you, use the Russell, Szu Use the Russell :) <RussellDaytrade> i would be, anybody not using their account at the moment? mine is tied up in a short that was TOO EARLY. 12:30 <john99> I cant,,,,arggggg,,,my arm!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! <szubaark_away> Russell u holding Shorts from yersturday? <john99> Hey RD buddy, I didn't know u were short,,,what a great friend the rest of you can,,,,,, :) 12:31 <RussellDaytrade> it's on paper. in real life i would have taken the loss long ago. <szubaark_away> Scaling into losing positions will get you out of doo-doo most of the time, BUT there will come a day when you WILL PAY. I see it happen to a bunch of hardheads 12:32 <john99> when I scale in, is when I lose, happens everytime this time will be different,,,because,,,ummmm 12:33 <RussellDaytrade> that breakout superceded yesterday, carried some today. it'll get reeled in. painfull in the meantime. <Brutus> Been there Szu, you just have to define it and stick to it. Be willing to take a loss <szubaark_away> in this room alone last 4 years 5-10 hardheads busted up that way. yeah and that loss u take will be YOUR LAST 12:34 <john99> I agree <RussellDaytrade> sounds like you are speaking from experience there szu. 12:35 <szubaark_away> scaling in/out gives u false sense of security then WHAM! <Brutus> No I dont let is go that much. Last big one Sept 19th $2300 loss for the day But the first was really $1600 12:36 i should have stopped then <szubaark_away> Russell im a one contract schmuck. 12:37 <Brutus> The second trade was in the afternnon and I was not in sound state to trade <john99> what's everyone think, where we goin in next 15min <Brutus> So I now know better:) 12:38 <pdays> sideways <Brutus> But happy to takea 2k loss <RussellDaytrade> some days chicken, some days feathers. tomorrow may be the shorts day in the sun, or perhaps even later today. 12:39 <john99> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 793.8 --> + 0.3 «« Scalp »» 12:40 <Brutus> You just have to pick a style that suits your personality 12:41 I am not a revenge trader I just call it quits for the day <john99> I told myself no short today,,, 12:42 * NihabaAshi_lunch is now known as NihabaAshi <Brutus> Tie a piece of string around your finger John, No Shorting :) <john99> just going to hold these last 2 cards, see how much more pain I can take 12:43 xle rolling over 12:44 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 793.80 -> small size 12:45 <john99> we've gone no where in last 90min thanks NIHA <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 794.20 --> - 0.4 12:48 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 794.20 <john99> Shorts ER2 @ 794.1 «« Scalp »» oops <NihabaAshi> Position at a large <john99> as soon as I entered it spike another .2 pts 12:49 <NihabaAshi> john...why do you say "thanks NIHA" ??? 12:51 <john99> u joined me on the short side 12:52 crap <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 794.80 --> + 0.6 <john99> oh, u did for a second there 12:53 <NihabaAshi> The size fixed the prior trade...rest just extra. <john99> tick above 0, never should have shorted 12:54 <Brutus> ES holding the 20 ema nicely today <john99> counter trend trading today, I told myself yesterday not to 12:55 I'm too stubburn 1pm reversal,,, 12:56 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:59 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 794.30 --> + 0.1 <john99> 1hr till minutes 13:00 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 794.40 -> small size 13:05 <pdays> Long ER2 @ 794.3 13:07 <john> hhello 13:10 <pdays> Exited all ER2 Long @ 794.5 --> + 0.2 13:12 <john> if we dont go down, I'm done tons of volume here, big block trade on IWM 13:13 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 794.70 --> + 0.3 13:14 ER2 and ES has been in a "creeper uptrend" since 10am est that's marked by declining volatility = Lots of false impressions on the Short side. 13:16 <john> think that was the top 13:18 795.1 13:19 40min to minutes I need to get out of my position <NihabaAshi> John...you countdown feels like there's a bomb in here :) 13:20 <john> before the # there is, and I'm sitting on it, getting ready to blow up my account, I had a bad feeling about today 13:21 <NihabaAshi> What's your definition of a "blow up" ??? My definition equals more than 1/2 of my monthly profits or similar like. <john> 1k loss for the day will be real bad, 2/3 the way there 13:22 <NihabaAshi> Thus, if I only have 2k profits for the month and I lose 1/2 or more in one trading day... It's a blow up day for me. <john> sorry to hear that, I'm going to join u it looks like 13:23 I need er2 to drop 2pts to come close to break even <NihabaAshi> john...I'm in the green but not with commissions. <john> Oh, more volume up here 13:24 <NihabaAshi> I've gotten to the point that a "blow up" is when NOTHING went right for that particular trading day. 13:25 I can have bad losing day and if it occurred via sticking to the plan... 13:26 It doesn't feel as bad. <john> 1k here 13:27 just trend line never broke <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 795.70 -> small size 13:28 <john> anticipating I'll cover ?? I see too much volume up here to cover 30min to #, xle rolling over 13:29 smh new high <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 795.40 -> Add 13:31 <john> crap 13:33 <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 796.10 --> + 0.7 <john> way to go Niha <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 79630 --> + 78834.3 13:34 Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 796.30 --> + 0.6 <john> er2 to 800???????? <NihabaAshi> Today is the last trading day of the "BULLISH" market seasonal pattern that ends mid November. 13:35 <john> 25min er2 strongest <NihabaAshi> I'm now green for the day and hopefully the FOMC minutes can help me reach my profit target for today. <john> good luck, I'm stupid 13:36 <NihabaAshi> john...your chart analysis still has you with a Short bias ? 13:37 <john> no, I'm just too stubburn I was never short biased, I took a short scalp and dug a deep hole 13:38 <NihabaAshi> Scalp or position trade ? <john> scalp which I added to, this is how I screw up crap I'm done 13:39 lots of volume here I'm shorting Shorts ER2 @ 796.8 «« Scalp »» <NihabaAshi> How long do your scalps typically last and can you use that average time as a time stop? 13:40 <john> should last no more than 6min I screwed up <NihabaAshi> Ok...than any trade beyond 6mins long is a warning sign. What's your average scalp profit? 13:42 <john> thanks <NihabaAshi> On trading days where your struggling bad...that's when you need to stick with your "stats" just in case you lose your perspective of what the market is doing. Example, if your average profitable scalp is 4 ticks and your having a bad trading day... 13:43 As soon as you reach a 4 tick profit...take the profit. It gives you a profit, gets you out of the trade and allows for you to take a deep breadth before the next trade. 13:44 <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796.6 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> I got into a hole today but went back to my stats about the overall November volatility and the afternoon rallies... 13:45 It's the only reason why I'm green at the moment. <yo> tx niha 13:47
Mentally getting away from trading is much harder to do in comparison to physically getting away from trading when its time for some rest and relaxation. Personally, one of my favorite ways to mentally rest is to watch movies I've copy & recorded from the local video store via my Slysoft software that copies any copyright protected dvd's and cd's. <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 797.00 -> small size 13:49 <yo> indd stick too your plan en no emotion, but ooh so difficult <john> 99min 13:51 9min I'm still in the trade, crap <NihabaAshi> I will add quickly to this contract to bring it to a very large size position if volatility moves prices upwards. 13:53 <Brutus> Should pull back in the next 5 mins, I would not be short going into this. <john> 6min <NihabaAshi> If it drops drastically...no big deal and I'm still profitable for the day. <john> I'm scared,,,,real scared 13:54 4min before blow up 13:56 3pts to 800 <NihabaAshi> Still no volatility spike and volatility is declining since my entry. 13:57 <pdays> 2 min 13:58 <john> Im short 4 <Brutus> I'm starting to think short hmmm 13:59 <john> I'm in the hole big time already fade me <pdays> out 14:00 <john> sell off baby <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 796.20 --> - 0.8 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 796.20 <john> leets gooo <NihabaAshi> 3 contract short <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 795.1 --> - 13.4 «« paper »» 14:01 <john> holding this piece of crap <RussellDaytrade> that was supposed to be cover one. <NihabaAshi> I'm keeping it on the light side...in profit protection mode. 14:02 <RussellDaytrade> (should have covered the others long ago. <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 795.40 --> + 0.8 <RussellDaytrade> do we now have a trend change??? 14:03 <john> lower!!!!!!!!! <Brutus> Sox bullish div 14:04 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 795.70 --> + 0.5 <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 795.3 «« paper »» 14:05 <john> still short <NihabaAshi> Its getting jumpy...tightning up my trailing stop. 14:07 <john> need to retrace 2pts more 14:08 this is consolidation before 2nd leg <NihabaAshi> You can always tak some profits...reenter on a bounce back up is your analysis is sure it will drop further. 14:09 <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796 -> Add «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 796.10 --> + 0.1 <john> we dropped to 23% fib we are bouncing <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 796.50 -> small size 14:10 <john> no volume on the bounce <NihabaAshi> 1 contract only <Brutus> NQ new highs <john> ym near high <X> 14:11 <Brutus> Long ER2 @ 796.3 «« paper »» <RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 796.8 -> Add «« paper »» 14:12 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 796.90 --> - 0.4 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 796.90 <john> ccrap <NihabaAshi> 3 contract long <john> ym and es new highs, russel weak 14:13 <NihabaAshi> ER2 not following the others right now :( <john> yep <NihabaAshi> It's got some catching up to do. <john> tons of voume on ym 14:14 we could selloff at dub top here <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 796.70 --> - 0.2 14:15 <john> ticks bearish needs to break 796.4 for short 14:16 <Brutus> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 796.4 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 14:17 Exited all ER2 Long @ 796.4 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» <john> needs more volume 14:19 lower 14:21 smh lower needs to break 795 ym showing support looks bearish 14:22 needs volume <szubaark_away> Exited all Long NQ at 1808 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 14:24 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 796.00 -> small size 14:25 <john> 793.6 is 38% fib retrace from todays high 14:26 slow MA acting as support 14:27 ym not bouncing like er2 looking for 793.6 14:28 <RussellDaytrade> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 795.3 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» <NihabaAshi> Geeesh... <john> I could go positive today,,,it is possible <RussellDaytrade> trend change <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 794.60 --> + 1.4 <szubaark_away> Shorts NQ @ 1805 «« paper »» 14:29 <john> buy limt at 793.1 volume here we will go to 38% guranteed <RussellDaytrade> that trade was meant to represent covering the lower short sale, 795.3, and keeping higher ones on. <john> holding 4 22more min 14:31 2more min I mean <NihabaAshi> I feel like the Bears vs. Cardinals...horrible first half and nice second half to win the game. <john> I might win today, I was freaking out all day 14:32 need to foucs focus good time to short <NihabaAshi> My data just stopped :( 14:33 I'm done for the day when I exit my last contract in this short position. <RussellDaytrade> 94.3 94.4 14:34 still down? 94.7 * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away <john> 794.2 breaking pt 14:35 <RussellDaytrade> measured move down 14:36 take a little off john 14:37 <john> ym moving down 38% hit * NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 14:38 <RussellDaytrade> Covered all ES Short @ 793.1 --> + 2.2 «« paper »» 14:39 <john> positive for the day,,,,TAKE BOW,,,,, 14:43 <szubaark_away> Covered all Short NQ at 1802.50 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» <john> Covered all ER2 Short @ 792.8 --> + 4 «« Scalp »» <RussellDaytrade> tough way to make a buck john, you must be ready for the showers! 14:44 <john> I haven't eatin anything all day <szubaark_away> Im BREAKEVEN but commissions make me DOWN FOR DAY.. those damn commissions! <RussellDaytrade> goos way to lose weight, trade thge russell. <Brutus> John "I live for PAIN" :) <john> I stuck to my short, just couldn't accept this slow trend up without a reverse reaction, I was freaking out before the # came, but decided to take the gamble 14:45 <RussellDaytrade> rephrase that to, 'I live for victory!' <szubaark_away> yeah John... Longevitity is the name of the game.. dont want to take too many hits to give some "The Raging Bull" LOL 14:46 <Brutus> Victory through pain, I'm happy your positive today. <john> Thanks GUYS,,,you all were telling me the right things today, and I should have listening I should have stopped shorting, I'm lucky today 14:47 Lucky to live another day at 1pt I was -$1,500,,,know I'm at $62,,,,:) 14:48 Going for some food <RussellDaytrade> 2 lucky days, close dthat short yesterday in the nick of time. <john> sorry, my grammar is bad when brain is low on food, Agreed RD, tried counter trend trading yesterday and almost got my head handed to my 14:49 me <RussellDaytrade> out for 20 minutes. <john> looks like a short setup, however we are too close to 3pm 14:52 3:06 could be interesting, if we continue down trend, we could see some good selling 14:55 today we saw a 3 phase move, 1 down(correct direction) 2 up, and 3 down. 14:57 If we go down more, 791.6 would be 61% and also key # from this morning 14:59 anyone still trading 15:01 buy bots 15:02 <NihabaAshi> This thing has a chance to do a volatility spike either continuing downward into the 7941.50 price are or make new intraday highs in the last 45mins of trading. 15:08 <john> I think higher <GoodMood> I think lower :) <NihabaAshi> john...you covered your short ? 15:09 <john> yep, I'm positive now, did you hear..:) buying pullbacks 15:10 <NihabaAshi> I saw a post that said you were "AT" $62 profit. <john> yep,,,OHHHH,,,,,YEAHHH!! <NihabaAshi> However, the way it was worded was as if it was still an Open position. <john> nope, closed all positions 15:11 <NihabaAshi> Ok...good. <john> looking for pullback <NihabaAshi> I'm still short a contract...playing with house money sort'uv speak to see if I can keep this trade by the close without my trailing stop being hit for a 1 tick profit at 795.90 15:12 If volatility picks up...I'll dump it. At whatever price prior to my trailing stop being pick pocketed. 15:13 <john> Long ER2 @ 795 «« Scalp »» 15:17 bought a little while ago, in the hole now, 15:18 <X> 15:23 <john99> buying 15:27 ym will pop large block trade IWM 15:28 ssmh trending up 15:30 need to break 795 15:31 should come soon 2min 2 target 15:32 big drop on smh 15:33 <GoodMood> smh = ? <john99> sox <GoodMood> thx 15:34 <john99> er2 strongest right now 15:38 stopped out 15:40 <jperl> for those of you interested..... 15:42 I've posted a TotalMarkets chart overlayed withe the ER2 chart here... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-11-15/JP ERL_018.png 15:43 the light blue bars are ER2 data.... <GoodMood> thx jperl ! <jperl> the red/green bars are the TotalMarket data.... <GoodMood> I appreciate it <jperl> You will note how closely ER2 follows the TotalMarket regardless of whether you are a scalper or a trend follower trader.... 15:44 The totalmarket movement is worth knowing before your entry <yo> gn all 15:52 <NihabaAshi> volatility picking up 15:59 <john99> I went short when my long failed, now it back to my buy pt 16:00 <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 594.70 --> + 201.3 16:01 ooops 16:02 Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 794.70 --> + 1.3 I'm done for the day and a good finish on a trading day that was tough out of the gate. 16:03 <john99> I did terrible today, but made some back <NihabaAshi> John...its ok to have a tough trading day a few times per month. 16:05 Just make sure you give everything a good review tonight. <john99> I know, I felt bad going into today, I'm short 1 card right now at 793.8 16:06 <NihabaAshi> Go over your trading plan and make notes for your daily journal about what how you interacted in the market today. <john99> I will <X> 16:32 <NihabaAshi> Today officially ends the October to mid November bullish rally via the market seasonal tendency. 16:41 For the remainder of the month...volatility will be a big issue and low volatility trading conditions can easily setup false Short signals. 16:42 Take care and see all tomorrow. * DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Nov 15 16:42:57 2006 Sponsor:
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