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#FuturesTrades October 26th Thursday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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Trading Perspective

Profit/Loss Blotter

One of the disadvantages of being a retail trader that's trading from home are family distractions.

Today was one of those trading days where there was more important things occurring than trading.

These are realities of trading that most vendors or retail traders do not talk about and such should be talked about to prevent illusions that every trading day is a smooth ride.

Anyways, I missed a Long Signal that probably would have had me in a trade with 3-6 contracts and would have resulted in a good profitable trading day instead of the profits shown above (commissions not deducted but weren't much).

Further, I'm still looking for a trend day and we still have Friday (tomorrow) and Monday (next week) trading session for such.

In addition, if you look at the above Profit/Loss Blotter you'll see I was in a private trader consultation.

I just want to tell those that regularly read my blog chat log commentary that if your a struggling trader or a trader not reaching your goals after giving the trial-n-error a good try.

You need help and my Swing Trading Report (STR) can help along with some private consultation especially if your also having some discipline problems or feel that your trade methodology isn't able to exploit current market conditions.

I have plenty of testimonials, references along with posting my trades in realtime and my PnL Blotter.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of October...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

  

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Session Start: Thu Oct 26 09:28:30 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now  #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here.09:28
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<pat255> gm all...gap up..09:29

mkt wont quit..
<PapaJon> gm all09:30
<eminitrader> morn all09:32
<asuni> gm emini, gm all
<eminitrader> hi asuni09:35

;0
<ItalianSharp> pretty quiet open thus far
<eminitrader> yep ...looks like mrkt will pullback over the next few sessions after some consolidation09:36

expecting correction on the es ....1350 after a few more highs09:37
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 775.10 -> small size
2 contracts only09:38
Exited ER2 Long @ 774.10 --> - 1 09:40
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 774.10
3 contracts short
ER2 volatility is declining suspiciously too soon...09:41
If I'm taken out with a loss on this Short...I will sit on the sidelines for awhile because declining volatility this early is not good.
<asuni> neutral bias at the moment niha?09:42
<NihabaAshi> Yes...neutral bias for the Open but I have an overall bullish bias for the trading day.09:43
  
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<asuni> thks
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1739.25 paper 09:44
<pat255> thks niha ...09:45
<eminitrader> anyone on the tradestation platform having pbs ?09:46
<pat255> IB here..:(09:47
<eminitrader> k
<asuni> y eminiu

i just wrote a mail09:48
<pdays>  Shorts YM @ 12194
<eminitrader> k so its just not me
<NihabaAshi> There's a 10am est New Home Sales key economic report09:49
I'm now in a high risk trade with the low volatilty going into the report.
<pdays>  Covered all YM Short @ 12187 --> + 7
<NihabaAshi> In comparison to it being low risk upon entry :(
Shorts ER2 @ 774.90 -> Add 09:51
<pdays> and help wanted @ 10, Nat Gas 10:30
<ItalianSharp> niha, if you are in a high-risk trade just before the news...why would you add to your position? i'd usually do the opposite heading into an economic announcement...any particular reason why you added to your short?09:52
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1739.50 paper
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 773.80 --> + 1.1 09:53
Pattern change and I took advantage of it.
Position is no longer high risk...will just sit on it now.
<ItalianSharp> yep, guess i spoke a little early...:)09:54
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1737.50 --> + 1.75 paper
<NihabaAshi> Volatility has picked up when in prior...it was declining.

Volatility slowly rising now.09:55
<ItalianSharp> ok...basically you saw volatility picking up in your direction and took advantage of it for quick profit...yet in your mind you were consciuos it was gonna be a quick trade and you'd dump a couple of contracts before the news?
<NihabaAshi> If it suddenly drops...I'll dump my Short remainders.
<WannaBeBOS> pretty slow out there09:56
<NihabaAshi> Volatility declining again :(

Expectiing a volatility spike and I don't want to be around going into the New Home Sales.09:57
<pat255> these reports...better stay out ...can cause grief..09:58
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 775.40 --> - 1.3 10:00
<pdays> new homes sales 5.3 , helpwanted 30 est 31
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 773.60 -> large size 10:02
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1736.50 paper
<eminitrader> back online now10:03
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 772.90 --> + 0.7
<pdays> yup
<pat255> emini ..:)10:04
<NihabaAshi> I"m back to neutral again...will try to hold the remainders of this Short...

Will reverse into a Long position is a signal appears.
<eminitrader> yep patcharts down till now
<szubaark> feels like a lot of selling pressure since opening10:05
<NihabaAshi> Oil gave me the clue to load up on the Short...a clue I missed earlier.10:06
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1389.75
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 773.30 --> + 0.3 10:09
:(
<yvberj> emini - Just curious. What are you basing your ES trade on?10:10
<eminitrader> this one is a intuion trade ..no signal from system10:11
<NihabaAshi> ER2 Volatility dropping alot again :(
<yvberj> Thanks. I just couldn't see any signal. Thought I was missing something.10:12
<NihabaAshi> Not normal volatility action again...
<eminitrader> :)
<NihabaAshi> I'm sidelined...will just watch.
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1390.75 --> + 1
Exited ES Long @ 1391.50 --> + 1.75 10:16
Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1391.50
* codehead-afk is now known as codehead10:19
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1389.50 --> + 2 10:20
<pat255> emini on a roll...
<eminitrader> :) thx
<Chilly> EM got that s&r to the tick ... very impressive!10:21
<eminitrader> yep the entry worked real well...thats why i love limits10:22
<PapaJon> yes.. nice trading et.. :)

you makin it look easy bro10:23
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1388 --> + 3.5
thx pj ..needed this10:24
<NihabaAshi> Nice patience emini.
<eminitrader> thx niha
will exit ar around 1385 ...see a long there10:25
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1737 paper
<eminitrader> if it sets up
<szubaark> i want exit 1730.. so far missed it by 1 Tick10:26
<PapaJon> et.. that have to do with a poc?
<eminitrader> no 1384 - 1386 ...retracement levels of yest..upmove...also poc level ...so make ita high probability10:27
<PapaJon> ah.. gotcha... thnx10:28
<eminitrader> 86.25 =40% 85 = 50% and 84 = 60%
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1731 --> + 5.5 paper 10:29
<eminitrader>  Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1386.25 --> + 5.25 10:30
  
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<pdays> Nat gas 19
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1386 10:31
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 768.50 -> small size 10:32
3 contracts only...keeping my risk exposure low...10:33
I don't like the price action so far today except for about 5mins worth :(
<PapaJon> agree niha.. i havent gotten one completely valid signal for my system... :(10:34
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<NihabaAshi> I had only one valid signal today and that was in OIH (Oil)...wasn't interested in trading the Oil ETF.10:35
<PapaJon> couple of partials.. but that only counts in hand grenades
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1387 --> + 1
<ItalianSharp> well done emini
<eminitrader> thx IS
<WannaBeBOS> esignal just dies10:36
*died
<ItalianSharp> WB, its working here
<WannaBeBOS> crap
<PapaJon> lost data here too wb
<WannaBeBOS> ok
<PapaJon> connection
<WannaBeBOS> same here10:37
<PapaJon> but my ib connection is fine
<ItalianSharp> at least its working for me :)
<PapaJon> :)
<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility just died again after showing brief signs of hope.
<PapaJon> maybe you and I are on same server wb

just came back10:38
<NihabaAshi> Has anyone ever thought about the fact that even if the Exchange themselves aren't having problems...10:39
If the data vendors like Tradestation and eSignal et ceteera are having problems...
It affects the volatility because traders aren't trading and spending their time trying to resolve their data problems.
Was just curious if anyone thought about that.10:40
<WannaBeBOS> ok, its back up
<NihabaAshi> Simply, I wonder if the lack of volatility today is due to the fact alot of traders are have data problems.
<WannaBeBOS> niha, i think about that. however, we are all pretty small
<yvberj> Hadn't thought of it, but now that you mention it, it makes sense. Especially if it's one of the lgr. brokers.
<NihabaAshi> Wanna...its all over.
<WannaBeBOS> even on ER2, there are players moving 1000s of contracts10:41
<NihabaAshi> I"m in a few other rooms on the FinancialChat server and they are having problems too.
<WannaBeBOS> it wouldnt surprise me
<NihabaAshi> I also see messages this morning at EliteTrader.com by others having problems.
<WannaBeBOS> well there you go
<PapaJon> yah.. agree.. i have noticed in the past that data probs coincide with lulls in the volatiility10:42
<NihabaAshi> AA few more ticks on this short and I really can take a break and go do some personal stuff.10:43
<pat255> vn niha ... to take that S...
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 767.80 --> + 0.7
I'm profitable for the day...not near my goal...but satisfied now especially with all the "consistent poor volatility" I've seen today.10:45
<yvberj> 3

Error Sorry
<szubaark> anyone seen silo?10:47
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 768.40 --> + 0.1
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1385.25 -> Add 10:48
<NihabaAshi> No...he may have found a good stock IRC chat room.10:49

I think he was looking for one.

ER2 average trade size for the month of October is 3.310:50

Today its 2.9

Usually when it drops below 3.0 it verifies what I see as "volatility" I'm not comfortable in trading.10:53
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1731.50 paper 10:54
<NihabaAshi> Average Trade Size (ATS) for ES YM and NQ are also lower.
<szubaark> we are at FOMC announcment Range now10:55
<PapaJon> niha.. when you say ATS.. are you refering to the avg profit you take ?10:57
<NihabaAshi> Papa...no11:00
ATS are not my numbers...they are numbers the data vendors get from the exchange.11:01
ATS equal average size of the position taken in each trade that goes through the exchange.11:02
I believe (not sure)...it includes the overnight data too.11:03
I'm sure the number would be much higher if it was based upon the "regular session only".
<PapaJon> ok.. so it means the actual "avg" number of contracts taken ?
<NihabaAshi> Yes11:04
<PapaJon> or moved rather

gotcha

where do you get that info?
<NihabaAshi> QCharts and Futuresource.
<PapaJon> is it a chart symbol?
<NihabaAshi> No.11:05
<PapaJon> ok
<NihabaAshi> Not a symbol nor an indicator...just a number I can include in one of my data boxes below my Bid Size and Ask Size.
<PapaJon> right.. i understand..11:06
<szubaark> emini that 1385 is holding so far11:10
<eminitrader> yep

thats a 50% pullback from yest..
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1733.25 --> + 1.75 paper
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1386.25 --> + 1 11:11
<szubaark> was looking for that Volatility spike to bail..
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1386.50 --> + 0.5 11:14
<NihabaAshi> Be back later...have some distractions here at home...11:20
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:46
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1737.25 paper 12:00
<pat255> c u all later ..ty12:03
les is missing these days?
<szubaark> later pat
<pat255> later szu
<PapaJon> pat.. les is on vacation to S. A. for approx 3 weeks12:06
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1740.50 --> - 3.25 paper 12:09
Buys NQ @ 1740.50 paper
FOMC range held as Support12:15
thats Bullish in my book
Exited all Long NQ at 1743 --> + 2.5 paper 12:29
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:58
<Chilly> well, that's some uptrend line forming ... anybody going to break it today ;)14:01
<eminitrader> me and szu ...if only we had held ...i got in right at the bottom :((((14:02
<Chilly> :)14:03
possible double test of top on ER .. or it might keep cruising14:06
  

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<szubaark> emini.. those pullbacks/late day reversals dont happen often, you just cant time them14:08
is it gonna be small pullback or Rveresal? heheh.. its isnt easy14:09
[12:15] > FOMC range held as Support14:10
[12:15] > thats Bullish in my book
hehe..
<eminitrader> yep ..very true szu...the clue/ hint i had was that if a retrace from 40 or 50% pull back of a larger move breks the 60% pullback of the smaller move ( todays initial down) then a high probability of breking the old highs14:11

failed to followthru with it though :((14:12
<szubaark> But these are Larger market forces pushing this up (FOMC,Seasonals) so any Techinical Analysis crap has to used with CAUTION
<eminitrader> dont mistake these pullbacks with indicators szu...its mrkt pysocholgy ...fear and greed in play ..works anytime any mrkt14:13

proven repetive patterns14:14
<substanz>  Shorts YM @ 12186
<szubaark> yes.. like right now my Indicator (CCI) is going Nuts giving my Short signals (had about 4 so far) ALL LOSERS hehe14:15

thing is ALL amateurs like at that indicator crap14:16
<eminitrader> :) ...agree thats why i ignored my short signals 1387-89
these again were based on todays initial swing...but gotto look at the big picture14:17
nice chart for a long now...if it meets my set-up criteria
<szubaark> they giving No pullbacks..14:18
<eminitrader> :(
the NQ upmove is crazy compared to the es
<szubaark> it looks good.. but its going up in a frikin 1-2 Point wide channel.. good luck getting in :)))14:19
<eminitrader> ES test of global highs 1393.75 ..
global=globex14:20
if no pullback now ...can expect a large downmove before close14:21
<szubaark> FOMC is the wildcard.. they could be buying to the Moon14:22
<eminitrader> yep...we never know14:23
<szubaark> u did some nice trades today.. prorect yur Profits
<eminitrader> :))
sure will szu...specially after last wk14:24
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi14:27
<NihabaAshi> Just got back...14:28
looks like a creeper price rise since the lows.\
<substanz>  Covered all YM Short @ 12196 --> - 10 14:29
<szubaark> Niha u agree with my comment?14:30
[12:15] > FOMC range held as Support
[14:10] > [12:15] > thats Bullish in my book
<NihabaAshi> It did bounce off some support but the FOMC support area was much lower and it didn't test that area of the FOMC support.14:32
<ItalianSharp> YM is being kept in check...weaker market of all today15:00
when this thing comes down, its gonna make some noise
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:19
* WBAT is now known as WannaBeBOS15:26
<codehead> naz looks like it'll close high of year15:31
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:31
<NihabaAshi> Take care all...the family distractions kepted me from getting Long off the lows today :(16:33
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Oct 26 16:48:58 200616:48
  
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