#FuturesTrades October 11th Wednesday 2006 Trade Log
#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.
Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.
In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.
Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.
Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.
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ER2 EuroFX EC +16.40 +0.0000 $1,640.00 $0.00 Trading Perspective
The above PnL blotter (profit/loss statement) shows my profits at $2,200.00
However, it includes a profitable 1 contract Long position (swing trade) that's still open.
Thus, I will input the results of that position upon closing the trade.
With that said, I got off to a rough start.
First, I reversed a Long position into a Short position when I wanted to add to the Long.
Next, after clicking the wrong entry button, I was too large on the Short.
Later on in the trading day I got a horrible fill.
Yet, with all the trading problems today...I didn't have too many problems in bouncing back to get profitable for the trading day.
The chat log below show my thoughts as I traversed from one trade to the next trade.
Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of October...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.
Session Start: Wed Oct 11 09:30:10 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now 09:30 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <eminitrader> morn chilly,asuni.jazz all <NihabaAshi> Good morning all. <asuni> gm emini hi niha <yo> gm all 09:32 <silo1> sup niha <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 746.80 -> large size 09:36 <szubaark> gm 09:40 <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 745.40 --> - 1.4 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 745.40 <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1356 09:42 <NihabaAshi> I need to reverse this but I'm trying to get a better price :( 09:43 :9 09:46 :( Covered ER2 Short @ 746.80 --> - 1.4 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 746.80 Long ER2 @ 746.60 -> Add 09:47 <eminitrader> nq holding its own ...will give ES a bit more time <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 746.50 -> Add 09:48 I now got the size I want...lets see what happens. <eminitrader> exit stop raised ES @ 1355.25 09:49 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1700.50 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:50 <deepitm> FYI Pres.Bush press conference at 9am cst 09:53 <pat255> gm all.. <szubaark> gm pat.. 09:54 <pat255> gm szu <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1356.50 -> Add <NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 748.40 --> + 1.9 09:55 That gets me profitable for the day and I'm still loaded :) Meant...I'm at my profit target for the day and I still have some remainders. 09:56 Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <pat255> vn niha...late today @office <szubaark> Nice Niha..u went small on Shorts? <NihabaAshi> szu...no...I went large on the Short and it was a big time position size mistake for me because this is October. 09:57 When I reversed that Long into a Short...it should have been a small size reversal. I screwed up and went large size. Bush on TV...that guy always messes with my profits :( 10:01 <eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1356.25 --> + 0.25 10:03 Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1356.25 no thats b/e on the long ..avg price <NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility is declining...expecting a WRB spike if that continues. 10:05 <szubaark> hopefully to the Upside :) ooppss.. sorry emini is Short 10:06 <eminitrader> no pb szu ... 10:07 <szubaark> emini that gap is causing problems again 10:08 <eminitrader> prolly right szu...see lot of sellers ..no buyers in yet ... 10:09 <NihabaAshi> Volatilty still declining. <szubaark> NQ possible gap close 10:10 <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 748.60 --> + 1.8 Holding 4 contracts <eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1357.25 --> - 1.75 thats 1 pt 10:11 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1703.75 --> + 3.25 <eminitrader> nice one :)) <NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 748.80 --> + 2 Holding 2 contracts... 10:12 <szubaark> NQ gao closed. gap <NihabaAshi> By the way...there's no EIA Petroluem Report today at 1030am est... <eminitrader> long way to go ... ES may not fill gap till the fomc mins 10:13 <NihabaAshi> Yet, still expect a price reaction at/near 1030am est because many retail traders forget that when there's a Monday holiday...the report is moved to Thursday. Another key market event today is a FED speech @ 1:30pm est and the 2pm est FOMC minutes 10:15 <eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1357.50 10:23 <pat255> c u all later back to work.. 10:27 ty all <eminitrader> later pat <Chilly> ES 2 day low not too far from LOD ... could be a nice one Emini <eminitrader> lets wait and see chilly <Chilly> ;) 10:28 <eminitrader> sell set-ups not working the last few days shows the strenght of the mrkt <szubaark> emini but they going up in a grind up mode.. tough to trade it 10:30 4ticks up, 2 ticks down :)) <eminitrader> true szu ...but the short term charts show such good setups on the sell side ...hard to ignore 10:31 <NihabaAshi> Geesh...another one of those crazy ER2 reversals. 10:32 <asuni> i lost my connection niha, u are flat, long or short? 10:33 <szubaark> Niha what u mean? <eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1358.50 --> - 1 :( shorts getting killed... <NihabaAshi> Look at the price...its spiking upwards and if I don't know why... 10:34 I call it crazy :) <szubaark> i never "know" why it spikes i just know it spikes <eminitrader> best not to try figuring it out...no piont going crazy 10:35 <szubaark> i hate getting my Stop hit on a Volatility spike..its usually couple more points 10:37 <eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1358.75 2 tick stop ...large size ...lets see if this one works 10:38 a good sell set-up as per my method 10:39 Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1357.25 --> + 1.5 10:45 <NihabaAshi> There's a range like or chop price action since 0956am est 10:47 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1701.50 <NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 747.00 --> + 0.2 10:48 Volatility declining again...expecting another volatility spike. 10:51 <eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1358.25 --> + 0.5 10:53 <szubaark> another grind up day 10:54 Covered all Short NQ at 1707.75 --> - 6.25 10:55 :(( Volatility spike Buys NQ @ 1708 <eminitrader> tough making money on sell side today szu.. 10:56 <NihabaAshi> Bad fill...gotta live it :( Long ER2 @ 749.50 -> small size Last trade of the day after a 1 point fill difference :( <szubaark> looking for ES,YM,ER to close gap <NihabaAshi> Sucks...I saw the volatilty coming a mile away...went Long on some downticks around 748.40 with a market order and got filled at 749.50 :( 10:59 When that happens...something is wrong...call it a day. <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <PapaJon> Bush on now 11:01 <NihabaAshi> Like I said...that guy takes away profits...when he's on TV...strange stuff happens in the price action. 11:02 <jperl> done for the morning.... 11:03 glad to see IB back without problems.... 11:04 <NihabaAshi> I'm still bullish and still think this market can go higher for the day. However, I won't be around if it does fill the overnight gap. <jperl> lots of executions this morning due to ER2 reversals... so did numerous reversals with position sizing.... 11:05 here are the executions.... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-11/JP ERL_011.png profitable morning <NihabaAshi> :) sometimes at the end of the trading day...it boils down to what were the results. 11:06 ER2 volatility declining again...expecting another volatility spike...hopefully upwards. 11:07 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1706 --> - 2 11:09 Shorts NQ @ 1706 <NihabaAshi> When 1130am est arrives...its the dead zone when volatility analysis is difficult due to many key participants heading out the door for lunch until around 1pm est. 11:11 <silo1> szu, how are you doing today <szubaark> down now :(( 11:12 quick spikes got my last stop shitty price action again 11:13 <jperl> There were 5 2-point reversals this morning for ER2 making trading difficult for the trend followers... http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-11/JP ERL_012.png the chart is a 2-point range bar chart.... 11:14 each bar is 2 points <NihabaAshi> jperl...isn't that a normal chart for most of ER2 trading days ? 11:15 <jperl> don't think so <NihabaAshi> Thus, ER2 is not a suitable trend trading instrument for intraday trading? <eminitrader> ?????? 11:16 <NihabaAshi> Meant...not suitable for a trend following methodology. <eminitrader> just when i was thinking of looking into it : cant be true though ... we r just taking abt wider stops right 11:17 <NihabaAshi> Not really...good trend following methods are trading the markets every trading day. 11:18 Good trend following methods are trading the markets when the markets have a high probability to trend... That's about 5 trading days per month. <jperl> From what I can tell looking back at ER2 data... 11:19 5 2-point reversal before noon is not the normal state of affairs <eminitrader> well here we r taking abt strong trend days .right ...meaning w/o any sufficient pullbacks <NihabaAshi> Meant to say that good trend following methods "are not" trading the markets every trading day. <eminitrader> k now i understand 11:20 <NihabaAshi> I think that's why I prefer a "trend reversal" (not a counter-trend) methodology and then cross my fingers that I caught a trend on a few days per month (usually the case). 11:22 <eminitrader> yep know what u mean niha 11:23 <NihabaAshi> Yep...my goal out of about 20 trading days per month is to survive 15 of them as small profits or better and catch a trend on 3 of them for bigger profits while the remaing 2 days are losses. 11:25 Yet, those 17 trading days are stressful while the other 3 days are stress free because everything plus the moon has lined up in my favor :) 11:26 ER2 volatility now DEAD...not declining. 11:27 Expecting a volatility spike...hopefully upwards. Are the financial networks still following Pres. Bush right now? 11:31 <Chilly> yes on cnbc 11:32 Sponsor: <NihabaAshi> :( <eminitrader> TRYING REAL HARD TO HYPE THE MRKTS...JOBS,GAS DOWN. LOW INFLATION ..TAX CUTS........ 11:33 xcuse the caps <NihabaAshi> I prefer if he doesn't mention anything about the "economy"...that's when the markets are stable during his speeches. 11:34 <eminitrader> lol <szubaark> they holding market up as hes speaking and im SHORT 11:36 getting Short signals right and left 11:37 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 749.60 --> + 0.1 <Chilly> Long ER2 @ 749.10 11:38 exit stop set ER2 @ 749.10 if it goes, it goes 11:39 <NihabaAshi> Escaped that Long position with the horrible 1.10 market fill. I'm don't trading for the day...will just watch. <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1711.50 --> - 5.5 11:40 :((.. getting screwed so far <Chilly> Exited all ER2 Long @ 750.20 --> + 1.1 <NihabaAshi> 1 bad market order fill, 1 incorrect trade reversal and 1 position size error today. Up today by $1600 dollars and I'm considering it lucky with the three major trade problems I've had. <eminitrader> when the mrkts fall ...i'm sure its goinfg to be a big one...can't go on forever like this 11:41 <szubaark> i make trade errors i pay dearly. This grind up is too tough to trade 11:42 <eminitrader> no more shrting in this mrkt till i see a downturn...will just be on the long side earnings suck...oil up...mrkts at the top ...dont see why its moving up today ..other than to fill the gap 11:44 <NihabaAshi> ER2 filled in the overnight GAP. <eminitrader> one more tick in the es <szubaark> the way its going up is untradable, thats what makes me sick about it. No pullbacks just GRIND 11:45 <eminitrader> best to lie low after 10:30 est 11:46 and wait for the pm moves 11:47 <szubaark> Today my Stops on my Shorts got hit by 2 Volatility spikes to upside.. that hurts 11:49 <NihabaAshi> szu...try to keep in mind that the odds in October are in favor of volatilty spikes to the UPSIDE. 11:57 Those odds continue into the month of November until at least mid-November. <eminitrader> nice tip niha thx..is this evey oct or just this yr given the mrkts 11:58 <NihabaAshi> Yes...has been that way since 1990 except for 1994 and 2000. <eminitrader> k <NihabaAshi> This is also a good time (late October - mid-November) for swing trading. 12:00 However, things started a little early this month and is the reason why I'm looking for a 1 contract Long position for a swing trade ONLY when a new intraday low is made AFTER a intraday high has been made. 12:01 <jperl> Is that swing trade symmetrical....short when a new intraday high is made after intrade low 12:03 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:11 <NihabaAshi> jperl... 12:12 No...I'm only looking for Swing positions as Longs. 12:13 <jperl> k <jazz1> this looks like it could drop 12:17 resistance all over the place 12:18 <szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1709.25 12:20 Covered all Short NQ at 1713.75 --> - 4.5 12:51 Buys NQ @ 1713.50 fomc minutes Leak? heheh 13:10 Exited all Long NQ at 1713.50 --> 0 13:13 Shorts NQ @ 1713.50 13:14 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:23 <szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1710.50 --> + 3 13:55 <Chilly> nice szu ... 5 minutes to FOMC ... if anyone's still awake :) <szubaark> thanx.. still in a hole hmm.. havent seen les in a while 13:56 Buys NQ @ 1712 13:59 Exited all Long NQ at 1705.75 --> - 6.25 14:01 :(( Shorts NQ @ 1705.75 im thinking slime took it up so they can sell on top 14:02 Covered all Short NQ at 1710.50 --> - 4.75 14:13 Buys NQ @ 1710.50 <codehead> whew nasty euro 14:22 <eminitrader> szu ..these real trades ? <szubaark> yup :(( <eminitrader> oh man... 14:23 <szubaark> wacko price action so far looking back todays chart isnt even tradable in this doesnt matter if u go Long or Short u gonna get stopped out 14:25 Exited all Long NQ at 1703.50 --> - 7 <eminitrader> :( <szubaark> im done... too frikin tough * szubaark is now known as szubaark_away 14:26 <codehead> long QM 57.625 <paper> 14:27 <pat255> code what month ctrct? oct <codehead> only traded it once for real, a little iffy here 14:28 hm--tight stop--6 ticks on Qm paper trade 14:30 oh, Qm floor just closed 14:31 too late for this that's why signal didn't follow thru--time ran out 14:32 exit Qm long +0.125<paper> 14:34 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:35 <codehead> oops wrong increment, +.025 14:37 yeah wait... let me check, nov i think... X6 that's nov i think ya <NihabaAshi> Just got back... 14:39 <pat255> kty code <NihabaAshi> Wow...the 2pm est FOMC minutes did this. <pat255> yup ...sell off since 14:40 <NihabaAshi> [10:15] <NihabaAshi> Another key market event today is a FED speech @ 1:30pm est and the 2pm est FOMC minutes I'll be taking a 1 contract Long position because its a new intraday low which is what I was looking for to initiate a Swing Trade as a long position. 14:41 Prefer something (as mentioned yesterday) near to 740.00 14:42 That price area looks good. * Retrieving #futurestrades modes... 14:50 <NihabaAshi> YM just lost its lunch. 14:51 Another big WRB drop for it. 14:52 <asuni> niha look at ec crazy 14:53 Sponsor:
<NihabaAshi> Yep...its been awhile since a 2pm FOMC minutes produced this much volatility. I'm long at 741.80 14:54 Will post it in a minute. Long ER2 @ 741.80 -> 1 contract Swing Trade 14:55 <codehead> 3.80 candle there on ER, closed a tick off the high--5 min candle whew YM bounced in the usual place--loves to try 50 support bounce 14:56 <NihabaAshi> Adjusting my initial 5 point stop/loss into a profitable trailing stop. 14:57 Didn't think it would bounce back up like this. exit stop raised ER2 @ 742.00 Was there a news alert about a airplane or helicopter crash in New York ??? 15:00 <jazz1> a plane <NihabaAshi> Before or after 2pm est ? <jazz1> a small plane, no event 15:01 <NihabaAshi> Ok...thanks. If my Long gets "pick pocketed"... I'll wait for ER2 to make a new intraday low to re-initate the swing trade. 15:02 I just went upstairs to check my Satelite TV... 15:09 That plane crash hit a high rise building. It's on all the news networks. 15:10 Anybody know what time this thing hit the news ??? I just need to properly time line this price drop to better understand it. If the price drop is news related... It WILL retrace all the way back to where the price was at prior to the story hitting the networks. 15:11 If the price drop is related to the 1:30pm or 2pm est key economic events... 15:12 It WILL NOT retrace today. Someone just gave me a timeline of 2:45pm est. 15:14 If so...its not related to the initial drop. 15:15 <asuni> niha i have the new at 1453 15:22 in a realtime site 15:23 http://www.marketwatch.com/news/newsfind er/default.asp?siteid=mktw&doctype=806&s elCount=20&property=&value=&nx=39001.622 4329861-882968041 <Chilly> yeah, definitely after 2:30 and after the FOMC drop <asuni> in this site when report comes out, few seconds later u have numbers 15:24 <NihabaAshi> Wow...plane hit the 20th floor of the high rise. 15:29 Geesh...talk about being traumatized again for those near that area in New York. 15:30 <Chilly> indeed ...FBI saying not terror related 15:32 <NihabaAshi> Price action like today is what scare most traders away from the markets. :( 15:39 I was so mesmerized by the price action...I almost forgot my goal of trying to get a Long position down near the 740 price area. 15:40 <pat255> nice Niha ..dang @office forgot about your comment on 740...vn trade tho 15:43 <Chilly> why do you think price came back so strongly from 740? .. short covering ... new Long positions taken 15:44 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:47 <pat255> c u all am ..ty all 16:00 <NihabaAshi> Take care all and it was a crazy trading day. 16:20 One worth documenting. 16:21 * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away * DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Oct 11 16:27:55 2006 16:27 Sponsor:
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