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#FuturesTrades January 25th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

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In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+19.30 +0.0000

$1,930.00 $0.00

Treasury Yields and Emini Futures Correlation ???

Profit/Loss Statement

All the experts are blaming today's steep downtrend on the sharp decline in existing home sales and or higher Treasury yields.

I'm not buying into that logic because if you take a look at the price action of the Treasury yields and the Emini Futures since the first few days of December 2006...

Treasury yields, Eurex Futures and Euronext Futures have been rising nicely to help support the Emini Futures because the Eminis has been struggling to keep any gains since December 2006.

However, if your trading the Treasury Bonds, Notes or Eurex Fixed Income Futures...its been very nice if you've been shorting since December 2006.

Also, since we're on the topic of intermarket analysis and looking for correlation...read my commentary below in the chat log about Gold and Oil especially if you trade either of them.

As for my trading today, I nailed my first trade and called it quits early.

Key news of the day

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of January...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Thu Jan 25 08:13:12 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 08:13

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<eminitrader> hi all 08:27

<Brutus> Mornin 1/20 Jobless Claims released on 1/25 at 8:30 AM; 310K 08:28

<ItalianSharp> morning all 08:42

<NihabaAshi> Nothing so far for me :( 08:43

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> I cancel my appointment this morning to tomorrow morning. 09:31

Simply, I'm trading this morning :)

<pat12> k... :)

<NihabaAshi> However, I currently don't have an charts :( 09:32

* codehead_afk is now known as codehea 09:34

* codehea is now known as codehead

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 798.20 -> large size 09:36

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 797.9 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.7 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 09:39

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 796.50 --> + 1.7

Covered ER2 Short @ 796.00 --> + 2.2 09:40

Holding 2 contracts

<ItalianSharp> we have an important housing economic release at 10am 09:41

we should have decent volatility for another 30-45 mins at least

<pat12> nice grab there niha...was L biased.. 09:44

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 796

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 795.60 --> + 2.6

<ItalianSharp> NQ the most bullish of all indices...tech stocks pushing higher right now...

<NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract 09:45

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<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 795.1 --> + 0.9

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is obviously "over-reacting" to whatever is in the market. 09:46

<pat12> vn les

<les> thx

<NihabaAshi> Especially with NQ just sitting there as if nothing is happening.

<pat12> yes...strange 09:47

<ItalianSharp> niha, thats the beauty of ER2...which i have been missing for a while

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 795.2 «« paper »»

<ItalianSharp> well, NQ is composed of over 65% tech stocks...and the tech sector is the only one in the green...this is why NQ is holding up right now 09:48

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 795.7 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 09:49

<ItalianSharp> NQ making intraday highs...lol 09:50

my guess is: either NQ carries all other indices in the green...or if NQ turns south, we are gonna see a bad day for the markets 09:51

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1821 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> my guess is we have two days of giveback, =/-. 09:52

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1821 «« paper »» 09:53

Covered all Short NQ at 1818.50 --> + 2.5 «« paper »» 09:55

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<pat12> reports coming.. 09:56

reports in 3 minutes... 09:58

<pdays> out...better than est 10:00

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1816 «« paper »» 10:03

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is setup for a counter-thrust attempt... 10:04

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1814.50 «« paper »»

<ItalianSharp> well, the report didnt bring the expected volatility...the news is that NQ finally came off the highs...

<NihabaAshi> Hopefully, its a weak attempt and eventually drops back down to new intraday lows.

<ItalianSharp> niha, what makes you think that?

<NihabaAshi> AD lines found a little stability. 10:05

May be enough to convince some Longs to show up.

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1816 «« paper »»

moving to breakeven

<NihabaAshi> How long the stay is a different story :)

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 794.6 «« paper »» 10:06

<PapaJon> Niha... see pm 10:07

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 795.1 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:09

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1818.25 --> + 2.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 793.90 --> + 4.3 10:12

<pat12> vvn Elite .. 10:13

<NihabaAshi> I caught a WRB pt4 level trade.

When that happens...I call it quits for the day.

I'm done.

<szubaark> Nice Niha. 10:14

<RussellDaytrade> another rough day at the office!

<pat12> niha makes money & then goes to bank & deposit it ...lol

nice trade niha

<szubaark> dont be fooled, Niha just makes it look easy. Its TOUGH

<pat12> got to tak ethe trade when the pain is the most 10:15

<NihabaAshi> Thanks and szu is right...its tough and some of my difficult trading days in here is witness to that.

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 794 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> My goal each month is to capture 2-3 trading days like today.

The other trading days...I don't mind if they are difficult, stressful or a struggle... 10:16

Just as long as I keep my losses small in relationship to my profits.

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.4 --> - 0.6 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1810.25 «« paper »» 10:17

<NihabaAshi> Many years ago I met a trader that average about 5 winning trading days out of 20 trading days each month.

However, each month he was averaging about 3k in profits. 10:18

<ItalianSharp> NQ with a nasty spike making intraday lows...

<NihabaAshi> Those losing trading days were minimized to small losses while those winning trading days were big.

<PapaJon> wow... niha.. thats fortitude... i dont think i would deal with many losing days 10:19

<ItalianSharp> niha, thats the key to making money in this business...lose small and win bigger

<NihabaAshi> That's when I stopped worring about my win:loss ratio and started spending more time with position size management.

<ItalianSharp> niha, you are absolutely right.

<RussellDaytrade> Niha, you ever hold yourself to only taking trades in a specific direction?

<NihabaAshi> However, I don't have a poor win:loss ratio but his win:loss ratio taught me a knew thing. 10:20

<ItalianSharp> sometimes, you have a win:loss ration much lower than 50% and you still end up in the green

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 792.3 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> RD...yes...during key market seasonal cycles.

<pat12> slow drip down.. 10:21

best trades are over..

<NihabaAshi> Simply, those are the times I'm looking for a swing trade (holding more than one day) or a position trade (holding more than a few weeks).

<RussellDaytrade> will stop at 792, in case i'm typing, etc...could be couple point bounce pat... 10:22

<pat12> ty RD

<PapaJon> RD... why do you pick 792.. what do you see? 10:23

<RussellDaytrade> was refering to days like today, for example, in limiting to only shorts, etc. days when it seems and feels like it is more apparent then usual the market retreast some, (though i gotta admit the er is giving back more then the others by a wide margin. 10:24

PJ, just wanna keep it tight, and not lose much if entry is wrong, etc 10:25

<PapaJon> ok... thnx

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 793.5 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 10:31

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<NihabaAshi> ER2 last interval just did a Volatility Spike. 10:32

Via the 2min chart. 10:33

<RussellDaytrade> probably more upside in it, just taking my usual exit. 10:34

possible 796 in another half hour. 10:35

if it takes a retest dive, it may be just that.

<NihabaAshi> Here's a big hint that I won't elaborate on... 10:36

Anybody trading anything involving Gold or Oil...

You better be monitoring both because there is a "intermarket relationship" between the two.

<pat12> not me ..

<Brutus> Niha is there a gold ETF? 10:37

<pat12> yes GLD

<NihabaAshi> Yep

<Brutus> thx

glglod

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1806 --> - 4.25 «« paper »» 10:41

<werner> gm all 10:43

<Brutus> er hammer 5m 10:44

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1805.50 «« paper »» 10:46

exit stop set NQ @ 1805.50 «« paper »» 10:47

Exited all Long NQ at 1809.50 --> + 4 «« paper »» 10:49

<RussellDaytrade> late and third tier shorts gotta begin to cover 10:53

<pat12> yes rd 10:54

<RussellDaytrade> i do not expect my full targets to be achieved (796, with another 15 min left) today, as it is the 'first' in what may be a series of up tagets derived from down setups. likely more of my interpretation, but i gotta go with it... 10:57

nice call on that low Brut.

fairly actoin-packed hour and a hlf, all in all. 10:59

<Brutus> Yeah 2 hammers there RD and couple of tails in that zone

didnt load, didnt hold :( 11:02

<RussellDaytrade> yes, thx for caling attention to them, switche dto 5 M chart to see them, and thought the lower wick may not have extended deep enough... just looked again, and swithed it to a 10 M chart, and the hammer shows up more prominent there... that's ok Brut, you're looking for, and finding them, nice. 11:04

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<RussellDaytrade> maybe price will take a last stab at 796 after all, if so, this would be the (usual) point at which it does. always nice to see targets mostly work out. calling it 'close enough'. 11:07

<pat12> S 93.5 paper 11:46

c u all laer ..ty 11:48

back to office ..

<Brutus> 11:37 EST *DJ Treasurys Prices Head Lower; 10-Yr Yield At 5-Mo High 11:50

<RussellDaytrade> Brut, care to take a guess at waht's coming up, (seasonally), (that relates to rates)/ 11:51

<Brutus> No idea RD, u? 12:00

<RussellDaytrade> yes. my htinking goes like this, and it is derived, and i have noted that, in a general way rates go up 'leading into' the seasonally stronger home sales months, which begin about htis time of year. on the 'balancing' side of the pendulum, they often hit a nadir near about the seasonally weak sales months... 12:03

interesting, huh? it's (almost) like the lenders know there'll be demand coming on line, and preceding that demand, they can access capital for cheaper, and then lend it out for 'retail rates' just around the bend. wholesale, retail. 12:05

happens quite a bit. almost like, clockwork. 12:06

my current down targets, in a general way over the next day or two is near 785ish. 12:07

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:16

<RussellDaytrade> ah, they're gonna tease the 790's longs stops, (or is that torture) before they break them, looks like'll it bounce first, saving the break for later on sometime. 12:18

<pdays> Shorts YM @ 791. 12:21

<RussellDaytrade> i'm itchin to buy it, but am exercising restraint today, trying to turn attention more to going with it, managed to the first trade of day, though i din't extract or exact much from it. happy about it all the same. 12:27

<pdays> Covered all YM Short @ 790.4 --> + 0.6 12:28

<RussellDaytrade> seems like its nearing a point of finding a little shelf of support.

<pdays> ER2

<RussellDaytrade> from back a couple days.

<Brutus> 12.30 turn ? 12:30

<RussellDaytrade> its gone down for 3 hours now, seems lioke enough. all the sellers that were slated/interested in selling this am oughtta be doen about now. 12:31

countermove for an hour-hour/half or so? resumed selling into close today? from a bit higher, say 793ish/slow move up, strained ,ove up?? 12:33

793 is near the point of last 'failure', may get challenged. 12:34

<Brutus> Come on Rd BUY 12:35

<RussellDaytrade> would have built up lots more sell stops by then at 790, (if occurs, the bounce up, etc). earlier break of 790 (before a bounce) alters dynamic of above scenario 12:36

Long ER2 @ 790.9 «« paper »»

ok, thx Brut

t near 792

little late on that buy, gonna have to go into 'suffer some'mode 12:38

those thugs in chicago better've got the script right. 12:40

<Brutus> well RD the difference is that you brought from Oversold conditions with at leas some buy volume and price confirmation 12:41

<RussellDaytrade> attributes of midday moves: they take longer to fulfill, allowing more time to trade it. drawbacks of midday moves: they take longer to fulfill, so gotta wait it out.

and, i bought on the 'sunny side of the vally'. it;s daybreak, and the sun's coming up in that region of the world. 12:43

<Brutus> With also TL break etc etc etc, which is different to past entries right?

<RussellDaytrade> i noramlly try and buy into the teeth of a decline, yes, and vice-versa. you know me well. by now you likely can 'feel' when i wanna get involved, and how i wanna play. 12:44

gonna sell it on next burst up, if it happens in here. 12:45

came you jokers in chicago, thats enough retest, lets get it in gear 12:46

<Brutus> Beauty of it is you had a stop at entry on the low 7 ticks and now a BE stop if you want

<RussellDaytrade> Brut, get this, this is a great 'tell'. prices are at lows of day, and, i am,and likely most everyone else is, reluctant to buy, and itchin to sell. even i am itchin to sell this long. great tell to play it opposite of how 'feeling'. 12:49

Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.56 --> + 0.66 «« paper »»

Exited all ER2 Long @ 791.6 --> + 0.7 «« paper »» 12:50

watch it go up more...t = 793-793.5 in 58 from lows 12:51

in reference to the above 'tell', waht i believe is the salient point, is that buyers have 'reached an uncle-point', in hte case of a selloff, and vice-versa in the case of a rally, ie, shorts unwilling to keep shorting, even as prices at at high levels!! 13:09

in addition, i think the counterparites to the trading can 'sense' those areas/that dynamic and complexion, and exploit it accordingly. 13:11

in reference to the above trade style, going for the jugular on a swift move, as opposed to 'grinding it out', my thinking is like this; over the past few weeks have grinded out 3500 or so, and figure there's a cushion to risk with, and, doing so represents a move/shift in trading style, and or at least an incorporation of an additional style, or gear, and to do so one must be willing to pony up an ante to sit at table and ge 13:19

grinding it out helps to point out that it is just that. it can be tiring and wearisome 'always' grinding it out. who the heck wants to shoulder the burden all the time, like some fkn pack mule, fktht, thats too much like work, (still pays well, but tiring). 13:22

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:28

<Brutus> 13:25 EST *DJ OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Falls $1/Bbl On OPEC Doubts 13:30

10-Yr Yield still screaming up 13:42

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 789.3 «« paper »» 13:48

late entry

better to have palyed the break, this trade will require 'work' 13:49

gonna give this one a wide berth, 788.5 13:50

alright,they gonna hold 'em here, good boys. 13:54

Exited all ER2 Long @ 788.7 --> - 0.6 «« paper »» 13:57

spoke too soon, bunch of dinks. 13:58

didn't think the 785 zone would be approached quite this fast, had figures it would take into tomorrow's am. 14:01

no (more) longs for me today, been there. 14:02

bth, what is 'happening now' i believe, is the 'real' response to the SOTU speech. i was expecting this to have occured yesterday, but, it was deferred, and in actuality, provided a great shorting day, for those with the fortitude, and foresight. 14:27

<NihabaAshi> I hope someone in here rode this trend day from top to bottom so far. 14:32

I can't remember the exact date but I remember getting a +10 point per contract on a 9 contract position in ER2. 14:33

I exited the entire position at +10 points in thinking I've milked the trend as far as it will go.

Guess what, it moved another 10 points :( 14:34

<ItalianSharp> lol

<NihabaAshi> My point, don't knock your self if you don't capture most of a big move.

<RussellDaytrade> thats something, when you can say you did that, and have also forgotten the day!, touche'!

<NihabaAshi> Only knock yourself if you didn't stick to the trading plan.

<ItalianSharp> true

as a rule, i should be satisfied with my trading if i can catch 50% of the move 14:35

thats already great if you think about it

nobody can get in at the top and exit at the bottom...so nobody can catch a 100% move

<NihabaAshi> RD...it was at a time when we had another trader that made +10 point profits look easy and his IRC name is Jazz. 14:36

He did it often each week it was kind'uv scary.

<ItalianSharp> jazz...the guy from israel

<NihabaAshi> Yes.

<ItalianSharp> he was back a few weeks ago

<RussellDaytrade> let's get him back here.

<ItalianSharp> disappeared again

<RussellDaytrade> where's he at, i'll go fetch him.

<ItalianSharp> how did he do that niha? 14:37

<NihabaAshi> That's when I was determine to stop taking these small profits and try to capture more points per move even if it meant getting a few more extra small losers.

<RussellDaytrade> up targets, i don't wanna play long.

<NihabaAshi> ItalianSharp, he took parts of my method and blended in with some indicator he was using.

I can't remember the name of the indicator. 14:38

<RussellDaytrade> great transition. you are a very good role model in that same regard.

<ItalianSharp> is he still trading eminis now?

<NihabaAshi> Last I heard he was...he's also a pilot.

<ItalianSharp> why did he disappeared again? he doesnt like the chatroom? 14:39

<NihabaAshi> He doesn't like any chatroom...sees them as a big distraction.

<RussellDaytrade> you recall the approx timeframe he was active on SL, so ican review his posts, etc?

<NihabaAshi> He does show up in the room called #eminis sometimes...more there than in here.

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:40

<RussellDaytrade> he must have deep pockets, to ride out the wavelets, while riding the 'tides' 14:41

<NihabaAshi> RD, it was during the time we had a writers in here from Active Trader mag, Barron's newspaper and three EliteTrader.com moderators... 14:43

I would say before early 2005

However, many of those logs have not been edited (they are either txt or image files) to look like the logs you see today.

<RussellDaytrade> will go on a hunt for them later, thanks. (i wonder if he traded the er while piloting some transatlantic EL AL flights???) 14:46

had special 'indicator' light on console. 14:47

<NihabaAshi> :) 14:49

<RussellDaytrade> gates of hell opening up, lets see if they keep battering them 15:08

<NihabaAshi> Misery likes company...look at Oil and Gold. 15:19

<RussellDaytrade> reversal? bullish divergence(s) ocuring near here, (short term)? 15:29

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:52

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:16

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Jan 25 16:16:39 2007

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