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#FuturesTrades
April 30th Monday 2007 Trade Log
#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.
Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades to be among profitable traders that fulltime or part-time as day traders, swing traders or position traders.
In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.
Therefore, do not use #FuturesTrades to judge the merits of TheStrategyLab.com strategies due to the fact that members of #FuturesTrades are using their own trade methodology.
Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab, #SwingTradingTSL or their own private chat room to post their trades with commentary.
Further, you'll find below the #FuturesTrades chat room text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) to be timestamp to help correlate the trades with your charts and the is eastern standard time (est).
Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.
Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.
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Intermarket Analysis
Intermarket Analysis is a valuable trading tool and prevents getting tunnel vision on trading day's like today where the market is in a tight trading range to only breakout strongly (up or down) into a parabolic price action.
Further, at first appearance there's no news or the market has already priced in any key market event.
So what happen today?
If you pull up your charts in the Oil and Gold markets, you'll see that they were dumping today and the Emini Futures and Eurex Futures soon followed.
However, if you don't have access to any futures charts of Oil and Gold or Treasuries, use their respected index charts.
In fact, I prefer to monitor their index charts instead of the actual futures charts.
Simply, next time when the price action is in a tight trading range and feels like your watching paint dry...pull up the charts of other key markets like Oil, Gold and Treasuries to monitor their price action for clues into the Emini Futures via intermarket analysis.
As for my own trading, I was slowly becoming bearish in the Emini Futures via intermarket analysis of Oil and Gold markets but decided to take a lunch break at the wrong time that caused me to miss the initial stage of the big drop in the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures.
However, I was able to use intermarket analysis after I couldn't find any breaking news source to exploit the remainder of the big drop until I called it quits for the day (it did drop further after I stopped trading).
Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.comNote: Position Size Management is very important in my trading and my position size varies from one trading day to the next trading day or from one trade to the next trade. Also, I'm currently exclusively trading the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though my strategies are applicable and profitable on all the trading instruments listed towards the bottom of this webpage along with my past trade journals showing consistent profits in other trading instruments prior to exclusively trading ER2.
Further, I can switch and trade any trading instrument that's listed below at the bottom of this webpage for any trader that request such mainly because I do a lot of intermarket analysis while trading ER2.
However, if you want to see up-to-date pattern signals in other trading instruments...click here.
Session Start: Mon Apr 30 09:29:21 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades * Now talking in #futurestrades 09:29 <X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm <PapaJon> gm all <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 833.40 -> medium size 09:32 trade error :( <les> Shorts ER2 @ 833.6 <jperl> ER2 Friday VWAP 833.38 09:33 1 week VWAP 832.83 <les> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 833.1 --> + 0.5 09:34 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 832.80 --> + 0.6 Covered ER2 Short @ 832.10 --> + 1.3 09:35 Holding 1 contract <les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 831.8 --> + 1.8 09:36 <eminitrader> nice start guys <NihabaAshi> Nice to start the day with a profitable "lucky trade". :) <les> it was :)) Trading Edge: Trading Strategies -> These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1499.50 09:38 Exited all ES Long @ 1499 --> - 0.5 09:39 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 831,5 09:40 Shorts ER2 @ 831.5 <Brutus> Long ES @ 1499 «« testing »» <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1499 09:41 Exited all ES Long @ 1498.50 --> - 0.5 09:43 <les> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 831 --> + 0.5 <pdays> PMI 52.9 <Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1498.25 --> - 0.75 «« paper »» <pdays> est was 54 <eminitrader> last day of the month ...dont want to give back ...tight stops and min # of contracts <les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 831.4 --> + 0.1 09:46 <NihabaAshi> Things will start to get very interesting around 10am - 11am est. 09:51 <pat255> may touch Fri low on er 09:52 <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1498.50 <NihabaAshi> We are currently in the middle of the price reaction to the 0830am and 0945am est key economic reports. 09:53 There's another key report at 10am est and Fed Chairman Bernanke speeck at 11am est. <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1895.50 «« paper »» 09:55 <les> Long ER2 @ 831.5 <jperl> ER2 VWAP 831.82 and still dropping 09:56 <Brutus> 1000/1400 Mar Construction Spending +0.3% 09:59 <pdays> Construction # est .1 in @ .2 10:00 <eminitrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1500 --> + 1.5 <RussellDaytrade> not much of a reaction, may continue to bounce up more for a bit 10:03 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1895.50 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:05 <eminitrader> Long ES @ 1498.50 10:06 <NihabaAshi> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 833.00 10:11 <RussellDaytrade> just closed the remaining short from friday. :) only had one open, small size...still am relauctant to 'sell into a hole'...just need a little practice i think. net 400, met days goal with just one contract, on one acct, no trades in l/s acct thus far/ <eminitrader> nice rd to hit ur target so early in the trading day 10:12 <szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1895.75 «« paper »» <RussellDaytrade> still think they get taken down to 825, before it sees 835 again 10:13 <Brutus> Nice RD what I'm looking for as well. 10:15 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <RussellDaytrade> thx EM, (may have to raise that goal!...actually happy with it). looking to improve on 'posturing more agressively"...little at at a time...plenty of day yet remaining, may get a healthy bounce 10:16 <eminitrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1500.50 --> + 2 10:17 <szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1898 --> + 2.25 «« paper »» 10:18 <eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1501.25 <RussellDaytrade> thx B...i want to thank you again for linking that article by Carol Dweck, her book "Mindset" is a very good book. <Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1501.5 «« paper »» 10:19 np RD :) 10:21 1030/1430 Apr Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index 27.2 <jperl> this mornings trades.... 10:25 <NihabaAshi> ER2 is in a s/r zone adn if it breaks above it...I'll dump my remainder short. <jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-30/JP ERL_011.png <NihabaAshi> Breaking above the s/r zone could tempt it to test the 833.50 price area. <jperl> ER2 cycling around VWAP 831.38 10:26 <les> Exited ER2 Long @ 831.5 --> 0 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 831.5 <eminitrader> looks like new lows :) 10:29 <Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1501 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:30 <eminitrader> the ES is what i'm refering to...high probability now <NihabaAshi> Looks like the market is waiting for Bernanke to show up. 10:32 <Brutus> I dont see a reference to him Niha on DJ news 10:33 <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 832.50 --> + 0.9 10:36 <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 832 --> - 0.5 <eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1502.25 --> - 1 10:38 :(( <Brutus> YM new highs 10:40 <pat255> yeah everyday new high mkt will never go again EVER..lol 10:41 <Brutus> in ref to 0830 high <pat255> down .. <eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1502.75 10:45 Covered all ES Short @ 1501.25 --> + 1.5 10:51 Shorts ES @ 1502.25 10:53 <werner> gm all 10:54 <eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1503.25 --> - 1 10:59 <Brutus> Fed Reserve Chrmn Bernanke speaks on Free Trade at Univ of Montana 11am 11:08 <ItalianSharp> wow, the dollar continues to get hammered...unreal 11:11 <NihabaAshi> It's rare to see a no reaction in the Eminis when Bernanke is speaking :( 11:14 Volatility levels has not changed. <pat255> mkt in a funk ... <les> if bernie tells em interest rates going up 5% tomorrow... 11:21 they'll wake up quick <pat255> lower interest rates affect the elderly -ve as most of them live on ineterest almost 100 mil retiress.. 11:23 <NihabaAshi> The pattern as of lately (hopefully some in here have noticed)... 11:27 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <NihabaAshi> The markets tend to drop in the first 30min - 1hr of trading before fighting its way back upwards. <pat255> u mean sell first hour & then move up...for the last week or so.. <les> its done that most of april 11:28 <pat255> yup... <NihabaAshi> Yep...that's been the theme...the markets have shaken off any negativity in the first 30mins - 1hr of trading. <Brutus> They are just training you, the break is coming :)) <NihabaAshi> :) 11:29 <les> is bernanke still talking? <pat255> yes it is not easy to stop him...lol 11:30 <les> these mkts want up... wish he'd shut up <RussellDaytrade> its great pa for a while...was thinking the same B being lulled into a sense of security...I have peferenced the short side for a couple of weeks, although the long trades opps have worked equally well 11:33 my work suggests a possible up target of 836.66, although I personallt hink it losing steam daily, the past couple days, and that objective will fall short/will not be met...re-building a small short on a rising scale, that includes a time component, ie, not selling much, at either same prices, and allowing the trading day to progress (time) to see how it 'shapes up'. 11:37 both trades just closed, 1 @ 831.2, the other @ 830.7...began early on both, both worked out, flat now 11:42 * codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:48 <WannaBeBOS> test <pat255> vn RD... c u all later back to office ty all 11:49 <RussellDaytrade> thx pat...hoping for as bounce/rally, since I know that establishing a short trade into a rise is my preference...if drops, will be sitting out...that 836.66, if happens, is still gotr two or more hours to manifest, I hope it does 11:55 <Fleneer> Fib on the day range 1497.25 to 1503.50 then .382 = 1501.00 .618 = 1499.50 market holding that line so far. but with the .382 broken the bias is down IMO 12:02 <AmazingJason> man, market stuck in this small range, approaching 20 MA on 2-min chart 12:11 <RussellDaytrade> mkt feels like its at a balance point in here...a possible downtrendline break to the upside, if happans, could manifest into a day or so of rounding upside 12:21 <les> loks increasingly likey RD 12:27 looks, likely...jeez :) a move past 831 could see it tilt 12:28 i mean 832 <RussellDaytrade> yeah, I don't quite know just how to 'rate it', that is , the likelyhood of either direction...I am looking at a 5 day chart, and the er has worked itself into a 'corner' right about here...while my inclination is to think it will manifest tot he downside, I am ackowledging that it may make a 'suprise-type' move up...on a bigger pic quick nalysis, the volatility has 'compressed', (that same tf, 5 day), and a volatility spike 12:32 the downtrendline I refered to is drawn from the highs from late Thurs, down along the tops from Fri and today...it kinda hugging along that line now...could 'make a break for it'. 12:34 <les> i was referring to the mkt making a pivot around 831.7 12:36 thats the tilt area for today <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:39 <Fleneer> took -1.00 hit on the 1499.75 short whipsawed now lunch slop. 12:40 <Brutus> China stock index up 1.2 pct despite reserve hike. "The reserve ratio rise won't hurt the market a lot. The index is still in an uptrend," said Haitong Securities analyst Zhang Qi, although he added that risks remained high with the market up more than 40 percent so far this year. 13:13 The central bank's announcement on Sunday that it would raise reserve ratios by 0.5 percentage point was taken as mildly positive, implying it saw no need to hike benchmark interest rates -- a harsher monetary tightening step -- in the short term. Many investors had feared a rate hike over the holiday. A market selloff could be blamed on dollar weakness and this news, watch closely the next few days 13:15 YM leading the way look at MMM, GE, IBM last few days 13:24 http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglan ce.php?T,MMM,GE,BA,MSFT,PG,INTC,c,IBM,WM T|B|B14 13:25 with that said could be time for some downside 13:27 <RussellDaytrade> the Chinese, and their mkts, are in heat...no telling when that 'lovers embrace' may climax...rates over there seem low to me, ie, their growth is approx 10-11%, and their rates are near 7%...seems like a good deal to borrow, and grow...damn, still flat. stockcharts also has a great tool for comparison charts...perfcharts they call it 13:28 <Brutus> Im not looking that deeply into it RD just how market responds to 'potential' headlines 13:29 <NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 830.60 -> small size 13:30 <Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1501.5 «« paper »» 13:31 <RussellDaytrade> thats good though B, I have noticed the mkt has a tendency to react in a delyed fashoin to headline news...on many days and many insatnces, just reading Yahoo's headlines, will alert me to news that the mkts may react to over the following 24 hours or so, ie, a great heads up...for those that can anticipate such. 13:32 <jperl> ER2 VWAP 831.50 13:33 price action now sitting on -1 std dev 830.70 <NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 830.90 --> + 0.3 13:40 <Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1501.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 13:51 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <jperl> I'm done for the day....trades here... 14:20 http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-30/JP ERL_012.png <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 827.00 -> small size 14:25 <les> late post Shorts ER2 @ 828.1 <RussellDaytrade> nice litle bout of the 'summer squirts' there 14:26 <les> is that what its called 14:27 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 827.30 --> - 0.3 14:28 Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 827.30 <RussellDaytrade> I gotta learn that pile-on trade, letting too many of these kinds of trades go by without being a participant...did a little long trade 826.6 to 827.2...I still smell 825 14:30 <NihabaAshi> I waited all day for volatility like this and when I finally got tired of watching around 2:15pm est... 14:32 I go upstairs to take a break and have a sandwich... 14:33 <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 826.9 --> + 1.2 <NihabaAshi> Come back and see it had dropped on good volatility :( <cmr> Long ER2 @827.80 Stop <jperl> they saw you leave....word got out <les> Long ER2 @ 827.7 14:34 <NihabaAshi> If I can muster a profit between these two trades...it ain't all bad :) Exited ER2 Long @ 827.40 --> + 0.1 14:35 Shorts ER2 @ 827.10 -> small size 14:36 <RussellDaytrade> may be tomorrow before it trades there..if today, doubt it pierces it, amy just trade close and bounce negligibly. 14:37 <NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 826.00 --> + 1.1 14:38 <RussellDaytrade> 825, that is <les> Exited ER2 Long @ 828 --> + 0.3 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 828 Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 823.9 --> + 4.1 14:39 <NihabaAshi> Geeesh... <cmr> 19:38 ER2=825.5 Short at 828 ? 14:41 <NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 822.70 --> + 4.4 14:42 <les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 822.5 14:44 <jperl> ER2 @ monthly VWAP 822.00 <les> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 822.4 --> + 5.6 14:45 personally... 14:46 i'de appreciate a return match going the other way :)) Shorts ER2 @ 821.7 14:47 <NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 821.10 -> small size 14:48 1 contract only and last trade of the day. <les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 821.2 --> + 0.5 <NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 820.00 --> + 1.1 14:50 <les> Shorts ER2 @ 820.6 Covered all ER2 Short @ 820.4 --> + 0.2 14:52 Sponsor: <NihabaAshi> Oil, Gold and Eminis took a dive around the same time... 14:53 <les> what caused all this?? <NihabaAshi> However, there's been a "flight to quality" all morning to the Treasury Futures. 14:54 <GoodMood> any news ? <NihabaAshi> Anybody know what time Bernanke stop speaking or is he still speaking??? <les> if he is... 14:55 he's been banging on for hours <NihabaAshi> Someone said he has been speaking on and off since 11am est... I'm just trying to confirm that. <les> Long ER2 @ 822.3 14:56 late entry 14:58 this'll prob go lower before it comes back up :) 15:00 mazybe not Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 822.8 --> + 0.5 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) <les> now i would love it to retrace that dark wrb at 14:28 nowt but fresh air to stop it :) 15:01 <GoodMood> les <- better be a "hopeless" trader 15:05 <cmr> 15:07 <les> o - i'm hopless all right :) <cmr> les, Where can we see the WRB at 14:28 ? <les> 14:38, sorry 15:08 <cmr> Yes, but what you mean by WRB, where can we find it. What's the link ? <les> its the real body of the candle at that time, 2,min interval 15:09 <cmr> OK. Thanks <les> WRB = Wide range Body <cmr> got it! <les> ask niha about that - he's the real expert on them :) <Brutus> Long ES @ 493.5 «« paper »» 15:13 <cmr> 15:14 <NihabaAshi> cmr...you can find out basic info about WRB at this link http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysi s.htm 15:16 <RussellDaytrade> eked out a positive result in the l/s acct, scaled buys beginning near 825, flat now both acct. I htink the drop I've expected for soem days just happened. :) One of these days, I will be 'more on board'. <cmr> Thanks Nihaba ! <NihabaAshi> There's also a thread at Traderslaboratory by some guys that have integrated WRB's into their VBC charts and VSA method... 15:18 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/ f34/wide-range-bodies-big-candles-1480.h tml They don't have access to my methods but do have a decent understanding of what a WRB is and they have figure out a way to use it a little differently than I do. 15:19 Take care all...I'm done for the trading day. Heading out to look for a new mountain bike. 15:20 <GoodMood> Niha, what is VBC and VSA ? <cmr> Yes - good question <NihabaAshi> VBC is a particular type of chart and VSA is Volume Spread Analysis. <GoodMood> ok, thanks 15:21 <NihabaAshi> I don't have access to either so I really can't say if they are good or not. However, from what I have seen about VSA...looks interesting. <les> hmmm 15:31 forgot to post my exit from last trade... sorry Exited all ER2 Long @ 821.7 --> - 0.6 now in another long 15:32 Long ER2 @ 819.9 15:33 Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 819.4 --> - 0.5 <Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 493.25 --> - 0.25 «« paper »» 15:34 <les> thats wrong Long ER2 @ 819.5 15:35 Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 819.9 --> + 0.4 Exited ER2 Long @ 819.7 --> + 0.2 15:39 Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 819.7 Covered all ER2 Short @ 818.9 --> + 0.8 15:40 i guess i'm done for today 15:41 cya all tomorrow <Brutus> Long ES @ 1489.75 «« paper »» 15:43 Exited all ES Long @ 1489.75 --> 0 «« paper »» 15:51 com: Barton Biggs says Dow may gain 18%-19% this year-Bloomberg 15:55 Says U.S. economy is not headed for a recession and shares of largest U.S. companies are "cheap." :theflyonthewall <werner> gn all 16:01 <RussellDaytrade> wow, days like this make me wanna be constantly short 16:04 mkt got too one-sided 16:05 <X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:12 <Brutus> cul8r 16:14 * DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Apr 30 17:11:05 2007 17:10 Sponsor:
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#FuturesTrades past logs can be searched via using Google. For example, pretend you want to research what has been said about volatility analysis. Go to the Google search window below and type in "volatility analysis" site:thestrategylab.com (exactly as I typed it including the quotation marks) and you will find everything associated with those key words that were used by any member of #FuturesTrades.
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Last of all, if you have any questions about the above blog like commentary, listing of our favorite trader blogs, above realtime posted trades or about the strategy discussion chat rooms associated with our fee-based strategies (#TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL)...
Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.
Sincerely,
M.A. Perry and Associates
TheStrategyLab.com
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