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#FuturesTrades October 18th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+13.40	+207.20	+2877.70
$1,340	$20,720	$287,770

Profitable Trade

1016am - 1041am est

Losing Trade

0955am - 1002am est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Thu Oct 18 09:30:01 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:30

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<werner> gm all

<bern> anyone knows what news has moved the european markets at 0700 et / 1300 cet ?

<PapaJon> gm all

<Dmi776> gm all

<bern> ok, now I know : thanks 09:31

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 824.80 -> small size 09:32

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<werner> sorry bern dit not see your question ,but i dont now :) 09:34

know 09:35

<bern> oh, thanks anyway werner: it was Bank of America poor results

<werner> ok bern 09:36

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 825.20 --> + 0.4 09:42

Going no where...market seems confused. 09:43

<ItalianSharp> leading index comin up in 8mins 09:53

<NihabaAshi> 2min chart just produced a White Hammer Line followed by a Dark Hammer Line in ER2 09:54

Long ER2 @ 823.50 -> small size 09:55

<ItalianSharp> how do you interpret that niha? guess bullish since you're long

<NihabaAshi> Yes... 09:56

Not a valid pattern signal but it does kick in my "intuition" that its worth the risk to go Long.

More importantly, other key markets have temporarily found some footing (not threatening to drop). 09:57

<Brutus> 1000/1400 Sep Conference Board Leading Econ Indicators 09:59

Leading Index

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 823.20 --> - 0.3 10:02

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 823.20

added 2 contracts on the reversal

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 822.9 «« paper »» 10:03

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 821.90 --> + 1.3

So far...looks like that 7am est key news event involving BAC has sapped the steam out of the 10am est Leading Indicator report. 10:05

That report is often a market mover in that it creates a lot of volatility.

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 822.60 --> + 0.6 10:07

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Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 10:09

<NihabaAshi> I got scared out of my Short by the price action of Oil and Gold.

<Nesi> hi all 10:10

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 824.6 -> Add «« paper »» 10:14

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 825.40 -> small size 10:16

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 825.2 --> - 2.9 «« paper »» 10:17

i misread that completely :((

<NihabaAshi> same here via not reversing my Short into a Long when I exited the prior Short position :( 10:18

Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 827.50 --> + 2.1 10:19

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1545.25 «« paper »»

<Pepe> nice Nihaba 10:20

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1547 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 10:27

Buys ES @ 1547 «« paper »»

<jperl> done for the morning....

lots of good scalps this mornning....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-10-18/JP ERL_016.jpg 10:28

<Pepe> nice

<les> Long ER2 @ 827.4 «« paper »»

late, sorry - damn doorbell again

Long ER2 @ 828 -> Add «« paper »» 10:30

<NihabaAshi> 1030am Canad Monetary Policy report and U.S. EIA Natural GAS report just released. 10:31

REMINDER: We have a Philly FED Survery 12pm est today. 10:32

<Nesi> thx

<NihabaAshi> So far as expected...we've had some strong morning price movements during key reports after that recent range day (contracting volatility). 10:33

I hope these types of price movements continue tomorrow and into early next week before the next range day of low volatility. 10:34

<les> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 828.5 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 10:38

<NihabaAshi> Yet, if that weird price chop returns...I'll be quicker to take a break from trading.

<Tim_a> i'm trying to work on 'out' as a deliberate and valid position 10:41

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 828.30 --> + 2.9

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 828.2 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

<Tim_a> vn, nih 10:42

<bern> vn

<NihabaAshi> I wanted out at 829.60 that represents a lower price area of a important prior WRB.

When I saw it miss by 1 tick and quickly pull back... 10:43

I dumped my remainder.

One lousy little tick :)

* les is now known as lesAway 10:44

<NihabaAshi> I'm officially in profit protection mode to ensure my trading day completes as a profit. 10:45

Thus, 1 - 2 contracts only for me for the remainder of the day even though I know the 12noon est Philly Fed Survey generates enough volatility to merit increasing my position size. 10:46

* bern is now known as bern_away 11:05

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1544.25 --> - 2.75 «« paper »» 11:11

:((

Shorts ES @ 1544.25 «« paper »»

Looks like wants down, hopefully well get Followhtru and no Chop 11:12

<Nesi> buy ER 825 11:23

1c 11:24

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 825.30 -> small size 11:30

1 only

Slowly losing my support from other key markets after I got Long :( 11:33

volatility declining too

If I get a volatility spike upwards instead of a volatility spike downwards...I'll quickly dump my Long because of the lacking in support for the Long. 11:34

<szubaark> Why woudnt you Reverse to Short? 11:35

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Lacking in Support = Bearish price action

It means ER2 is on its own if it wants to go higher.

More importantly, to short requires a Bearish price action. 11:36

ER2 not Bearish just yet.

<szubaark> ok..im watching ES and NQ. 11:37

my SHort not looking good :(

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 825.70 --> + 0.4

caught the early stages of a volatility spike and a WRB pt1 target 11:38

<szubaark> so far, move for move, tick for tick is being Retraced 11:39

<NihabaAshi> Around 1145am est I'm expecting volatility to get interesting.

<szubaark> my moving average is FLAT Horizontal Line=STAY Away from Market right now. 11:40

<NihabaAshi> If it doesn't...it should setup a nice volatility spike on the 12pm est key market event.

<jperl> ER@ sitting at VWAP 825.78....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-10-18/JP ERL_017.jpg

<NihabaAshi> [11:35] <NihabaAshi> Lacking in Support = Bearish price action

That's suppose to say the following...

Lacking in Support = Doesn't Imply Bearish price action 11:41

Once again...it means ER2 is on its own if it wants to go higher.

Long ER2 @ 825.80 -> small size 11:59

1 only

Lost my support again after entry :( 12:00

<szubaark> Covered 1/2 Short ES at 1543 --> + 1.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> I'm on my own :) 12:01

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1544.25 --> 0 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Currently a WRB pt1 has been reached

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1544.50 «« paper »» 12:02

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 826.50 --> + 0.7

Volatility slowly rising and that can easily lead into chop if the volatility starts to drop again. 12:03

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1542.50 --> - 2 «« paper »» 12:05

:((

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 824.80 -> small size

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1542.50 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> 1 only

<szubaark> coudnt hold my Original Short as the Report shakes were too much

again, that last small WRB is getting retraced :(( 12:07

geez, real jerky Price Action, Impossible to hold on to any trades 12:08

<NihabaAshi> oh oh...Dark Hammer Line 12:09

They make me a little extra nervous

volatility declining fast... 12:11

I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon

<szubaark> Hopefully downside, we are Short 12:14

<NihabaAshi> I just got support on my Short. Thus, no need to reverse into a Long position if my Short doesn't work.

szu...its trying hard 12:15

Just did it

<szubaark> support via Gold and Oil?

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 824.00 --> + 0.8 12:16

szu...yes.

Not anymore...

Oil trying to retrace at the moment.

If that's all the volatility the 12noon est Philly FED Survey can do... 12:18

I'm going to take a break from trading.

<Nesi> zzzzzzzzz 12:24

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 12:34

* lesAway is now known as les 12:45

<Brutus> ER descending triangle 12:49

breakout holding 12:51

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 826.1 12:52

Covered all ER2 Short @ 825.7 --> + 0.4 12:54

<Brutus> OK boys are back from lunch, maybe they'll makea run for new lows 13:01

<Nesi> buy ER 824.70 13:15

out 826 13:19

all sleeping? 13:40

<werner> nono lol

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 13:41

<yayaa> g'day all 14:10

<Brutus> Shhh everyone on afternoon nap 14:13

<Nesi> :/ 14:14

buy ER 830

<ripsboy> Long ER2 @ 829.10 14:17

<Brutus> 10/18/2007 14:20 *DJ OIL FUTURES: Nymex Crude Hits Record $89.20/Bbl 14:21

<yayaa> Here in the N.E. many will suffer with heating oil pricing 14:22

when refineries shift emphasis to heating oil gas prices will spike at these crude levels. Then what? 14:24

<Brutus> may see the impact in retail sales next year 14:25

<ripsboy> Exit ER2 @ 828.50 -.6 14:26

<yayaa> retail already shakey from Xmas reports I read,when the consumer leaves whatch out 14:30

<ripsboy> Long ER2 @ 829.10 14:34

<yayaa> Long YM 943

covered 1/2 YM long @ 958 14:41

Out remaining YM's @ 955:) 14:44

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<ripsboy> Exit ER2 @ 827.9 - 1.20 14:47

<jperl> done for the day..... 14:48

<yayaa> long YM 934

<jperl> lots of good trades....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-10-18/JP ERL_018.jpg

<Tim_a> today was a good day for quick scalps 14:50

<jperl> indeed it was

<szubaark> Small Range days continue to be problematic for me. 14:52

Covered all Short ES at 1546 --> - 3.5 «« paper »»

real Badly managed trade..extremely difficult day for me trading. 14:53

* szubaark is now known as szubaark_Away

<yayaa> Out YM 938 14:54

<ItalianSharp> szu, today wasnt a very small range day...i think it was an average day 14:58

ES range is above 10pts...YM is around 100...not that bad

perhaps you got stucj in the chop we've had for a few hrs...that was killer

<yayaa> +17 YM's last hour,gotta be quick for sure 14:59

<NihabaAshi> Looks like the best price move of the trading day occurred soon after I left :( 15:01

<yayaa> Short YM's @ 955 15:05

<rainer> Shorts YM @ 13955 15:17

Covered all YM Short @ 13945 --> + 10 15:24

<yayaa> covered 1/2 YM's @ 947

covered remaining YM's @ 947 here + 8 more pts. 15:25

<rainer> Long YM @ 13950 15:28

Exited all YM Long @ 13945 --> - 5 15:29

<NihabaAshi> Just to create a discussion in here... 15:37

I notice a few Emini traders at ET posting P/L statements that show consistent profits over 15k per trading day.

<Nesi> that was NOT me :) 15:38

<Brutus> well I wasn't trying to braf Niha

brag

<NihabaAshi> I feel a little "small" with my goal of 1k per day :)

<Brutus> :))

time to step on the gas

<NihabaAshi> I agree but my personal life doesn't allow me to jump up on the position size to "attempt" to make profits like that. 15:39

<Tim_a> well, at leastg your 1k is real

<NihabaAshi> I'm no longer single...got a family now and need to keep the risk low in my trading. 15:40

<Brutus> what risk? u practically make a profit every day

<NihabaAshi> O 15:41

<yayaa> Nih,you mentioned @ ET. ET? 15:42

<Brutus> # of cortracts should not effect your fills on the ER and you just increment contracts risking profits only

<yayaa> Short YM here @ 956 15:43

<Brutus> + u r having a great year so if not now ???

<Tim_a> i think where size matters is when handling the 'really wrong' trade 15:44

too big & over your head can lead to disaster

<NihabaAshi> Brutus...size to affect the fills in ER2. 15:45

<yayaa> Covered YM short @ 944 + 11 more pts.

<NihabaAshi> I've done size in ER2 5x larger than I do on average now...

<Brutus> yes OK 15:46

<NihabaAshi> Split fills, increased spreads et cetera.

In fact, if I was going to do really big size like I did many years ago... 15:47

ES it the trading instrument for such

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> I use to push 30 contracts in ES without any problems.

<Nesi> wowze

did you trade anything today..Niha? 15:48

<Brutus> so whats holding you back?

<NihabaAshi> I remember the first time I did a 30 contracts in ER2 and I got a split fill.

<yayaa> With tuitions prices.maybe you need to go a little bigger:)

<NihabaAshi> Nesi...I was done trading by 1216pm est.

<Nesi> oh

<Tim_a> size changes should be made gradually 15:49

<Pepe> Nihaba, Why do not trade DAX? There is no probelm 60 contract. Big size no problem

<NihabaAshi> Pepe...that's a frequent question in here and the answer will NEVER change.

I live in the U.S.

Not Europe.

<Pepe> And DAX is tarde now. 15:50

<NihabaAshi> Thus, to properly trade the DAX I need to start preparing around 1AM est.

Pepe...best time to trade the DAX is before 0930am est.

<Brutus> Do whats comfortable to you, I just cannot understand your reasons people seem to set there own limits 15:51

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<NihabaAshi> Second best time is between 0930am - 11am est.

After that...not worth it unless there's a key FED event.

Such only happens a few times per month.

Besides...try trading the DAX between 2am - 11am est with a family. 15:52

<Pepe> and what do you think about DAX contarct size.What size on DAX is OK?

<NihabaAshi> You'll be lucky to mentally survive for one month.

I wouldn't push more than 10 contracts in the DAX.

<Pepe> only 10 contract on DAX.? 15:53

Do you think 20 contract on DAX is OK?

<NihabaAshi> I wouldn't trade more than that.

<Pepe> why?

<NihabaAshi> That's my risk tolerance level for the DAX.

Anything more and I'm violationg my money management. 15:54

<Pepe> ok, thank you very much

<NihabaAshi> My guess is that the average size per trade in the DAX I see must be around 3 contracts. 15:55

I'm going to check now for today's stats on that...

Just a minute...

Ok...average size today for the DAX = 7 15:56

<Pepe> why?

<yayaa> NIH,OK to ask question about the script? 15:58

<NihabaAshi> I have a golden rule to try and keep my "OWN" average size per trade near what the average size is.

For example...average size today for ES is 27.

If I was trading ES...I wouldn't go over 27.

Meant...I would like to see my average size by the end of the day no more than 27. 15:59

Not that I wouldn't have a trade like 30 or more.

<Brutus> I have a better formula keep average size to average ask/Bid size :)

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is around 6 contracts on average per trade 16:00

<Brutus> ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION =========== 16:01

DJIA down 9.11 points to 13884.57

NASDAQ up 6.20 points to 2799.47

S&P 500 down 1.46 points to 1539.77

10-year T-note up 14/32 at 101 30/32 yield 4.502

NYMEX Spot Crude up $2.07 at $89.47/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro up 0.0078 at 1.4293

<NihabaAshi> I'm easily under that today and I still got my 1.2k profit goal for the day.

<Brutus> 10/18/2007 16:01 *DJ Google 3Q Rev $4.23B Vs $2.69B, +57% >GOOG

<NihabaAshi> My average size today in ER2 was 2.14 16:02

Simply, the big picture, I'm a very conservative trader :) 16:03

<Nesi> how many trades did you make today...Niha, if i may ask

<NihabaAshi> 7

<Nesi> thx 16:04

<NihabaAshi> One loser

<Pepe> nice

<yayaa> Nice 2 hrs. YM for me +25pts.,need to get a handle on the scripts here:( 16:05

OT: Joe Torre out,nice guy even though I'm in Red Sox camp 16:07

<NihabaAshi> Chicago Cubs can use Joe Torre...great Italian community nearby too :) 16:08

<yayaa> Well he has said he was not ready to retire 16:09

BTW, Who ownes that Bud house in left field???

<werner> gn all 16:10

<zik_> hey, anyone here use Tradestation for futures trading 16:23

<yayaa> zik I use IB 16:24

<zik_> i heard a lot of good things about ib 16:25

and a lot of bad as well

<Tim_a> yayaa, do you think ib's standalone java can be kinda slow?

<yayaa> no problems for me,however I consider myself to be a relative novice re:computers 16:26

Fills for me are instantaneous 16:27

point and click for me seems to work

<Tim_a> execution/fills are great, but navigation around the trader workstation can be sluggish

<yayaa> Tim can you expand on your statement regarding navigation? 16:30

<Tim_a> sometimes clicking on a limit price to change it either by entering the price or using drop down box has a slight delay 16:32

<yayaa> I see, I personally have no experience with other brokers for future trading 16:34

<Tim_a> i still think ib is hard to beat

<yayaa> I'll have to try and simulate your example to see what you are referring to. 16:35

As a new member I am humbled with the breadth of trading knowledge manifested through the posts I have read here. I hope to add to my learning curve as a trader and someday make a meaningful contribution to the room. Cheers all and GO Sox! 16:42

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 16:55

* sep34 is now known as sep34_away 17:33

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 17:53

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Oct 18 22:06:02 2007 22:06

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In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures EMD, ER2, ES and NQ

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC and ZG

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

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