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#FuturesTrades October 1st Monday 2007 Trade Log

 

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year
+22.80 +22.80 +2693.30
$2,280 $2,280 $269,330

Profitable Trade

0937am - 1010am est

Losing Trade

1209pm - 1220pm est

click on image to view actual size

 

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

 

Trading via WRB Analysis: The big WRB story of the day occurred in the first few minutes after the open (0930am est) in which a White WRB (811.60 - 810.40) occurred also as a volatility breakout.

Volatility breakouts is much more reliable in comparison to other types of breakouts. In fact, one of the main problems traders have with breakouts is that they don't understand there are many different types along with the fact that they don't understand that to be a good breakout trader you must also be a good fade breakout trader.

As for my own trading, the key trade of the day for me was a late entry in reaction to the volatility breakout and my initial profit target was only a WRB pt1 because of that late entry.

However, luckily other key markets (intermarket analysis) and market breadth (Oil, Gold, DAX, VIX and Advance Decline Lines) provided support for my late entry and gave me much more profits than I expected.

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log. 

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

  Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

   
  #FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Session Start: Mon Oct 01 09:29:09 2007Session Ident: #FuturesTrades
* Now talking in #FuturesTrades09:29
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<Dmi76> gm all
<eminime68> gm
<GoodMood> gm all
<pat255> gm all09:34
@office :(
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1541.25 09:36
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 814.10 -> large size 09:37
<les>  Long ER2 @ 814 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> strange price action or my new chart setup is a little confusing for me.09:38
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1542.50 -> Add
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 815.00 --> + 0.9 09:39
<werner> es and nq res here imo09:44
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 816.30 --> + 2.2
Holding 2 contracts09:45
<werner> very nice
<eminitrader>  Covered all ES Short @ 1544.25 --> - 4.75
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 814.5 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 817.00 --> + 2.9
Holding 1 contract
  
Trading Edge: 

Strategies

If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.
   Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit,  exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) 
  
<eminitrader> be back
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 817 «« paper »» 09:47
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1544.75 «« paper »» 09:48
<les>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 818.2 --> + 4.2 «« paper »»
<werner> nice les
<les> thx
<Brutus> Excellent start Niha and Les09:49
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1546.75 --> - 2 «« paper »»
<les> i'm not convinced longs will be such a gfood idea today...09:50

but looked like it would at least test the upper end of the current daily range09:51
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1545.245 «« paper »»
<Brutus> 1000/1400 Sep ISM Mfg Index

Manufacturing Business Index 53 52.9
<szubaark>  Shorts ES @ 1545.25 «« paper »» 09:53
<pdays> ISM est 52.6 in @ 5210:00
<les>  Long ER2 @ 818.8 «« paper »»
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1545.25
<NihabaAshi> Wow...
DAX just popped big time to the upside but its starting to lose its volatility.
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1546.75 --> - 1.5 «« paper »» 10:01

Buys ES @ 1546.75 «« paper »»
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1547.75 --> + 2.5
Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1546.75 --> + 1.5 10:04
<les>  Long ER2 @ 819.8 -> Add «« paper »» 10:05

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 820.8 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:07

wow10:08

looks like its gonna try hit on the upper end of this range10:09

still, be surprised of it breaks out
<szubaark>  Exited all Long ES at 1548.75 --> + 2 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 822.30 --> + 8.2
<les> vn niha
<pat255> wow vvn N10:10
<szubaark>  exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1546.75 «« paper »»
Nice nIha
<NihabaAshi> Thanks
<les> that should pay for yr software upgrade
:)
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1549.25 --> + 4
<szubaark> good emini
<pat255> vn nem
<eminitrader> thx guys..10:11
<NihabaAshi> The best part was that I was only looking for a +0.8 to +1.2 per contract or the first WRB pt1.

I got much more :)
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 820.4 «« paper »»
i know, nihe.. that was a cracker of a trade
<ItalianSharp> looks like the long awaited trend-day is in full force now10:13
<les> looks like
Long ER2 @ 822.2 -> Add «« paper »» 10:15
<NihabaAshi> Only sad part with the new upgrade is that I have more data problems :(10:17

I no longer get my market breadth info...sometimes I get a few quotes here and there instead of continuous as before :(10:18

That takes away a big part of my trade management after entry :(
<Widgetman> MKTS 1 WAY TODAY10:25
<les>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 821.6 --> + 2.2 «« paper »» 10:28
* les is now known as lesAway
<szubaark>  Exited all Long ES at 1546.75 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:32

Buys ES @ 1547.25 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 821.10 -> small size 10:34
3 only
<szubaark> looking for a real re-test of high10:36
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)
<NihabaAshi> :(10:37

Exited all ER2 Long @ 821.30 --> + 0.2

Without my Gold data, AD Lines data et cetera...10:38
<szubaark>  exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1547.25 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> I'm like a sitting duck in my trades after I enter them.

Knowing when to reverse losing positions prior to their stops being hit is a "critical" aspect of my trading.

The missing info prevents me from knowing when to reverse or when to take a small profit instead of waiting for my WRB target.10:39

On that note...I'm done trading for the day and will try to find a substitute for the missing info.
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1549 10:40
<NihabaAshi> Damn eSignal for taking over QCharts and Futuresource...
<szubaark> Niha sounds like u look at a lot of stuff.
<NihabaAshi> They are making in "extremely difficult" for traders that do Intermarket Analysis.
<szubaark>  Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1548.25 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:41
exit stop set ES @ 1547.25 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> By the way, eSignals Advance Decline info is "incorrect" and missing ticks from each interval :(10:42
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1548 --> + 1
<szubaark>  Exited all Long ES at 1547.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:43
<NihabaAshi> They also correct the info after the market close so that the charts viewed at night look accurate...giving a false impression it was correct during the trading day :(
<eminitrader>  Covered ES Short @ 1547.50 --> + 1.5

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1547.50
<NihabaAshi> [10:40] <szubaark> Niha sounds like u look at a lot of stuff.10:45
I only look at what the big boys look at.
<szubaark>  Buys ES @ 1547.75 «« paper »» 10:46
<NihabaAshi> If the big boys don't use it...there's no need for me to try and reinvent the wheel to find something else.
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1548.50 --> + 1 10:48
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away10:49
<pat255> back s ..ty alllater gu10:54
<eminitrader> be back11:01
Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1549 --> + 1.5 11:18
<NihabaAshi_away> I got back my market breadth info along with figuring out a way to get my Gold info.

Simply, I'm back to trading again.
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi
<szubaark>  Exited 1/2 Long ES at 1549 --> + 1.25 «« paper »» 11:19

exit stop set ES @ 1547.75 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> Everything works as long as I don't change chart intervals...others I've talked to having same problems.
:(11:20
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1548.50 -> Add 11:21
<Pepe> wow11:22
<eminitrader> high probability new highs looks like a creey one11:23
<szubaark> yes.. need ton of patience
<eminitrader> key support for this move 154611:24
<intowin> just made it back to the house..11:25
<eminitrader> major support for the day ..1542 as of pa at this moment
<intowin> looks like we might have a creeper today11:26
Long ES @ 1548.50 11:29
exit stop set ES @ 1546 11:30
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1550 --> + 1.5
<intowin> so far its doing today what I thought it would do Friday : (11:31
<eminitrader>  exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1548 11:33
<NihabaAshi> I was expecting either a trend day or strong price movement this past Friday.11:34
Part of the equation got qualified on Friday
<lesAway>  Long ER2 @ 823.3 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> Resistance up here.11:35
<eminitrader> yep in the ES too 1551-1553 area11:36
<Tim_a> 1541 still valid spx resistence emini?
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 823.30 -> small size

2 only
<eminitrader> 1541 was never res on the SP yim..11:37
it was 1530...which was taken out this am ...after several attemots last week...hence the brek out11:38
yim - tim :))
apologies11:39
<Tim_a> ok, i see now loking at the jul 23 area, dont know where i got the 1541 in my head
<NihabaAshi> volatility spike along with jumpy prices...11:44
<Tim_a> on closer examination, 140.93 was the jul 23 close, that's where i got it
<NihabaAshi> Oil not supporting it so far.
<Tim_a> 1540.93
<szubaark>  Exited all Long ES at 1551.50 --> + 3.75 «« paper »» 11:46
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1552 --> + 4.5
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 823.80 --> - 0.5 11:47
Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 823.80
<eminitrader> holding 2
<Tim_a> NICE, e
<eminitrader> thx tim
<NihabaAshi> Oil joining in now
<Tim_a> 4.5 es is bat-to-the-ball
<eminitrader> lol11:49
<ItalianSharp> well, this was the shortest bear market i've ever witnessed to...lol11:50
<Widgetman> what bear mkt
hehe
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 825.40 --> + 1.6
<eminitrader> that was a 10 lot tim so out with 5 @ 1552 certainly helped me for today:))
<lesAway>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 823.9 «« paper »»
<Tim_a> i'd say so11:51
* lesAway is now known as les
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 825.20 --> + 1.4
Oil and Gold no longer providing support
<eminitrader> looks like the ES lost its co-relation with oil for some time now niha...looks like both r in in bull mrkts11:52

not sure abt the er2 though11:53
<NihabaAshi> ES looked good all morning with Oil11:54
Oil and Gold gave one more push upwards together.11:55
<eminitrader> which means ...es shld have retraced...but it didn't ..seeing new highs11:56
<NihabaAshi> What Oil instrument are you looking at ???
<eminitrader> dont follow any commodities niha...just whats shown on cnbc ..11:57

looks like crude
<les>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 825.6 --> + 2.3 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> ok11:58
<eminitrader> but i remember a while back where when gas was up es tanked and when it was down es went up...the relation is not so strong now
<NihabaAshi> I don't look for tick to tick correlation.
<eminitrader> well even end of day ...days now when all 3 are up..gas gold and es11:59
<les> done for today

till tomorrow..
<eminitrader> had an exit @ 1554 ..no fill :((12:00
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 825.80 -> small size 12:01

1 only

I'm slowly losing my support on this Long...12:02
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1554 --> + 6.5
<NihabaAshi> should be an easy position reversal if I'm wrong and should get Short.

DAX losing volatility12:03
<Brutus> WTG EMT
<NihabaAshi> ER2 too

expecting a volatility spike here soon...
<eminitrader> thx B..hope u got in too
<NihabaAshi> Hopefully upwards
<werner> do you trade market orders niha?12:05
<Brutus> not today E, just some scalps
<eminitrader> k12:06
<NihabaAshi> werner...I use everything including the kitchen sink.12:07
<werner> :)
<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility dropping more now12:08

preparing to reverse

Exited ER2 Long @ 825.30 --> - 0.5 12:09

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 825.30

volatility now gone but I still have Oil and Gold supporting my Short12:10
<Widgetman> k12:12
<NihabaAshi> weak support forming as prices tries to stalize here.

Other key markets trying to stabilize here too :(12:15
<Brutus> anyone got esignal data probs?12:18
OK now, 2nd time today12:19
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 826.50 --> - 1.2 12:20

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 826.50

I have QCharts and Futuresource data problems after I upgraded to eSignal data servers12:21
<base> ER2 has just crossed the R2 level.
<NihabaAshi> They have something called the "eSignal Data Manager" that works in the background causing minor problems on my other charting programs and other journal stuff I never had problems with.12:22

Simply, eSignal starting to look like a program I need to put on its own dedicated computer :(12:23

Exited ER2 Long @ 827.00 --> + 0.5 12:24

I also know (heard) that since eSignal took over QCharts...QCharts subscribers are down by 25%12:26

Futuresource subscribers are down a whopping 33%
<base> Hm, nice. Not a good piece of software if it does need a dedicated system.12:27
<NihabaAshi> Prior QCharts and Futuresource programs continue to work almost as if nothing changed when eSignal took over.12:28
<Brutus> It should not be allowed on anti competative grounds12:29
<NihabaAshi> However, recently in the past 2 weeks the message is if you don't upgrade to the latest versions that utilizes eSignal structure...QCharts and Futuresource prior version will cease to work :(

Well, CQG - Bloomberg and other top tier programs are out there still but they are mainly utilize by the pros.12:30

Anyways, soon I'm moving over to CQG after I test Bloomberg with a trading pal nearby that recently signed up with Bloomberg.12:31

I'll be switching too to one of the top tier programs.
<sep34> Niha, i don't think CQG ( 6 month ago when i checked they did not have it )has the market breadth data that you use for your trading..12:35
<NihabaAshi> They told me about a year ago and a few months ago that they had every market breadth imaginable.12:36
<sep34> did you ask specifically for A/D lines?
<NihabaAshi> Yes and AD volume
<Brutus> hard to imagine they would not have the most common ones12:37
<sep34> thats odd i had them double check and they said they dont have it...12:38
<NihabaAshi> There are lot of different type of AD lines.
<sep34> ADV minus DECL is what i asked for...12:39
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)
<sep34> i was not interested in a line on close indicator
<Tim_a> i think e-signal makes money best for e-signal
<NihabaAshi> They they say you couldn't create it via chart merging via typing in both symbols and then using whatever code they had to produce the merged image/data?12:40

I won't be signing up with them until the end of the year.12:41
<sep34> yes they told me that i could create an indicator via costume code
<NihabaAshi> I'll double check about what they have soon.
<sep34> since i can already do that with tradstation i stayed with TS
however i don't think you can plot it with candles12:42
<NihabaAshi> Ahhh...I see.

I'll make sure I ask them about AD Lines as a candlestick chart.
<sep34> in tradesstation i can plot it as bars12:43
and i assume it will be the same with CQG
<NihabaAshi> It's hard to find out the names of all the top tier programs unless you visit different institution firms or brokerage firms.12:46

Most of the top folks don't have high search engine rankings and that's because they cater to a small niche of professionals.

eSignal and the other low tier programs pop up in the search engines.12:47
<Tim_a> .12:59
<intowin>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1556 --> + 7.5 13:19

heading out... WIll hold the balance for a HOD close or +2 exit
<ItalianSharp> niha, what happened to jperl?13:40
anyone knows?
<werner> no IS13:45
<szubaark> yes havent seen jperl in a while14:04
Shorts ES @ 1558 «« paper »»
exit stop set ES @ 1559 «« paper »» 14:05
<ItalianSharp> perhaps Niha can shoot him an email and see what he's been up to
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1559 --> - 1 «« paper »» 14:10
Shorts ES @ 1558.25 «« paper »»
<NihabaAshi> Just got back...14:34

I'll send jperl a quick email tonight.14:35
<ItalianSharp> that's great niha14:39
<Brutus> Is jperl back from his holiday in China?14:41

I think he's there for a month
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)14:45
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 828.50 -> small size

2 only and poor entry

Covered all ER2 Short @ 829.60 --> - 1.1 14:49
<szubaark>  Covered all Short ES at 1559.75 --> - 1.5 «« paper »» 14:50
amazingly strong
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 830.20 -> small size

3 only

I think I'm having some data problems because the volatility bursts are in sync via every 15 secs.14:51

data burst14:53

burtst again up to 830.7014:54

730.30

:(14:55

Exited all ER2 Long @ 830.60 --> + 0.4 14:59
<werner> that entry is that based on the wrb in the 3 min chart niha?
was
<NihabaAshi> which one ?15:02

Last one was a reversal entry
<intowin> taking profits early.. Have to run..15:03
Exited all ES Long @ 1560.50 --> + 12
  
WRB Analysis
  
<NihabaAshi> Meant it was suppose to have been reversed from 829.60
<intowin> still expect hod close
<Brutus> well done IT
<intowin> thanks
<Tim_a> yes

12 es very tough to get15:04
<werner> ok thx niha
<intowin> we were ripe for a move so I held them.
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 830.60 -> medium size 15:06
punks15:12
<base> :)15:13
<NihabaAshi> be right back
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<Guest35179> long 827.4015:40
cover 828.40 +115:42
short 828.3015:43
cover 826.50 +1.815:45
long 826.70
cover 828 +1.315:47
short 828.2015:51
cover 829 -.815:55
short 830.115:58
<Brutus>  ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========16:01

DJIA up 183.47 points to 14079.10

NASDAQ up 34.21 points to 2735.71

S&P 500 up 18.71 points to 1545.46

10-year T-note up 11/32 at 101 12/32 yield 4.545

NYMEX Spot Crude down $1.49 at $80.17/bbl close.

Dollar/Euro down 0.0032 at 1.4236

============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========

DJIA up 183.47 points to 14079.10

NASDAQ up 34.21 points to 2735.71

S&P 500 up 18.71 points to 1545.46

10-year T-note up 11/32 at 101 12/32 yield 4.545

NYMEX Spot Crude down $1.49 at $80.17/bbl close.

Dollar/Euro down 0.0032 at 1.4236

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={4526a c80-a3cf-477d-8b5c-807a01fc1140}
<Guest35179> cover 829.50 +.616:12
<NihabaAshi_away> Take care all...I'm busy in the middle of reinstallation of my QCharts on a separate computer after uninstalling it from my main system due to the extreme data problems after the software upgrades.16:21

Will watch closely tomorrow how things go with via switching charting programs (futuresource on main system and Qcharts on backup system).16:22
* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Oct 01 16:42:03 200716:42
  
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Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

 questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig

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