August 14th Monday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, NihabaAshi is the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com strategies.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est). 

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room. 

 

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ER2 EuroFX EC
+1.30 +0.0000
$130.00 $0.00

Bill Announcements or Bill Auctions

A common question I see asked at different forums...

Are there ways to determine which trading days are most likely to chop (range days) prior to the market opens?

Newbie traders or inexperience traders will say no and that you can't predict.

Experience or profitable traders will say yes.

I say yes because of probabilities. One such is Bill Announcements or Bill Auctions on Mondays for the first hour of trading when there's no key market events nor breaking world news.

Then if there is a breaking world news event...the market will usually over-react and break out of that chop to produce a parabolic trend to only retrace it all back later in the trading session.

This is a repeatable price action that will occur more often than not on trading days occupied by Bill Announcements or Bill Auctions when there's no other key market event for that particular trading day.

Simply, next time someone ask that commonly asked question...send them a link to a good economic calendar.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of August...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)  
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com

Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and you can view the charts associated with the key price action along with their stories at our key chart story archives.

  

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Session Start: Mon Aug 14 09:32:45 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:32
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<szubaark> gm
<PapaJon> gm all09:33
<jperl> A green opeining....09:35

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-08-14/JP ERL_011.png
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 686.90 -> small size 09:41
2 contracts only.
I have a neutral bias that changed down from a bullish bias.09:42
The middle-east situation over the weekend caused a lot of interesting gaps in key markets.09:43
I expect the market is a little confused right now and waiting for a particular key trading instrument to make a move.09:44
Confusion is seen in all the gaps in different key markets.
Exited ER2 Long @ 686.10 --> - 0.8 09:46
Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 686.10
Since I've returned back from vacation...I've only had "one" trading day where I was willing to do "normal trading size"...09:47
<szubaark>  Shorts NQ @ 1505.50
<NihabaAshi> All other trading days has been small size only due to all the mixed messages in the markets or my own inability to understand what's going on.
That one trading day where I traded with my normal size was the FOMC Announcement day.09:48
<pat255> gm all
<NihabaAshi>  #FuturesTrades Purpose -> No gurus here, no signal calling by a head trader and no intentions to educate. This room is being used by you as a realtime trade journal of trades (real money or simulator) and discussions are for you to add additional info to your brokerage statements. Do not mimic (shadow) the trades by others without their consent as stated at http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm09:49
<szubaark>  exit stop set NQ @ 1509 09:50
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1276.50 09:53
* subq_ is now known as subq09:55
  
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<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1505.50 --> 0 09:58
<eminitrader> expecting retest of hod from this level ......depends on the strenght of the bounce
<szubaark> Will wait for something Clear to develop
emini.. thinking of Shorting re-test of high IF develops09:59
<eminitrader> yes szu ..

depending on the set-up

gap fill prolly after retest of hod

Exited all ES Long @ 1276.75 --> + 0.25 10:04
<NihabaAshi> :(10:05
<asuni> EC is died10:07
<NihabaAshi> I think I had the price direction correct but ER2 just didn't want to drop to a WRB target for me :(10:08
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1277 10:10
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 686.60 --> - 0.5
<marklc> Long DAX 9010:12
<eminitrader> nice bullish formation on the es
3 min
<marklc> should be 8910:13
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1277 -> Add
<marklc> out b/e10:15
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 685.60 -> small size
3 contracts only
Geessh :(10:18
EuroFX just did a volatility spike :(10:21
<marklc> short DAX here and out -.5
<les>  Long ER2 @ 685.5 10:22
<marklc> YM still looking strong here10:23
<les>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 685.6 --> + 0.1
wrong entry
<marklc> long DAX 8910:24
<les>  Long ER2 @ 685.7
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1276 -> Add 10:25

will be my last add10:26
<marklc> out -4
<eminitrader>  exit stop raised ES @ 1275 10:30
<les>  Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 686.2 --> + 0.5 10:31
<NihabaAshi>  Covered ER2 Short @ 686.20 --> - 0.6

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 686.20
<eminitrader> long @ 76.50 avg
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 684.8

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 686.4 --> + 0.7 10:32
<eminitrader> price action sucks this am...so far
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 685.8 10:33

exit stop raised ER2 @ 686.3 10:34
<NihabaAshi>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 686.90 --> + 0.7 10:35
Had a little problem...tried to exit all and only did 1/3 before I realized I was still long 2 contracts...then dumped the remainders at the same price :(10:36
<eminitrader>  the mrkts not giving much so far :(10:37
<NihabaAshi> On that note...I'm really not getting anywhere and will go do something more productive.
<eminitrader> lol
<NihabaAshi> Be back later...going to cut the grass :)
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away10:38
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)
<marklc> happy mowing
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1277 --> + 1
thats a b/e actually
<les>  exit stop raised ER2 @ 686.7
<eminitrader> holding 2 from 1276
<les>  Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 686.7 --> + 1 10:39
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1276.25 --> - 0.75 10:41
thats a +.25
brokers must be the happiest guys today !
Shorts ES @ 1276.25 10:45
be back10:46
* les is now known as lesAway10:48
<asuni> which is your target emini?10:52
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1506.75
<eminitrader> gap fill asuni
<asuni> thks

when u enter u have a fixed stoploss?10:54

or changing trade by trade?
<eminitrader> stop depends on the set-up and entry fill...may change trade by trade ..10:56
but i try to max out my stop at 4 pts againg depending on lot size and reward ratio10:57
ex; i dont do anything more than 2 pt stops in this type of price action10:58
<szubaark> NQ close to testing High11:00
<eminitrader> price has hit my mental stop 1277.75 so now i have physical stop there11:01
waiting for nq retest11:03
Covered all ES Short @ 1278.25 --> - 2 11:04
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1512 --> + 5.25
<eminitrader> very nice szu :)11:05
Shorts ES @ 1279
<szubaark> thanks. they made a sneaky breakout again. Made Niha cut the grass :)
<eminitrader> lol
will add till 1282..stop @ 1283.5011:06
<szubaark> emini.. Im keeping in my head something u said about not having to trade all the time. I need to cut my trades down.11:07
<pdays> oil down $1.60
<eminitrader> specially after a good winner szu

or cut sze if u are trading multiples11:08
<szubaark> Ive been whacking 6-10 Trades before 2pm average. thats way too many in this stingy,chop market
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1280 -> Add 11:09

all 1 size lots11:10

see major res 1281-128311:12

Shorts ES @ 1281 11:16
<aym>  SHORT11:26
Short ER2 @ 691.8 risk 211:27
<jszymona> ping11:39
* lesAway is now known as les11:40
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)11:47
<Chilly> gm folks, bit of a rising wedge on YM 5m, adx almost at 50, bull flag hitting target ... humm11:50
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1282 11:56

thats a add

holding 4 avg 1280.5011:59
<asuni> your stop at?12:00
<eminitrader> mental stop 1284.50

will have physical stop after mrkt is back from lunch12:01
<Chilly>  Shorts YM @ 11220 12:03
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1283 -> Add 12:22

5 short avg 128112:23
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi12:58
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)12:59
<asuni> niha, no new post in STR Q&A13:11
<szubaark>  Buys NQ @ 1518.50 13:35
<Chilly>  exit stop set YM @ 11219 13:41
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 691.00 -> small size

2 contracts only

I'm not trading well today and I missed the best move of the trading day so far...13:42

Keeping my position size on the light side.13:43
<asuni> but u cut your grass :-)
<Chilly> I was too chicken to buy a gap up at test of the 2 day high this morning ... cluck, cluck13:46
<NihabaAshi> asuni...it was a fast cut and I still didn't make it back in time to catch any of that price move. :(13:47
<szubaark>  Exited all Long NQ at 1515 --> - 3.5 13:52

:((

Shorts NQ @ 1515 13:53
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 689.50 --> + 1.5 13:54
  
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<szubaark> playing for the gap close attempt
<asuni> nice trade
<eminitrader>  exit stop set ES @ 1282.50
<NihabaAshi> That's a volatility spike...something is going on if it makes another volatility spike.
Meant as in back to back volatility spikes especially in ER2.13:55
<eminitrader> aexpecting a bounce from here and then a tank--gap fill..

;00

:))
<szubaark> so much for "trend is your friend" buying pullback :))13:57
<eminitrader> makes it trickly on gap days szu ...otherwise perfect entry here on a trend pullback13:58
<Chilly> wonder if the market will get the pre-PPI and CPI jitters even though oil is down ??13:59
<szubaark> emini i read some books,articles on playing gap days but they all failed in the long run :). i havent touched a book on trading in a long time.
<eminitrader> unlike what others say gap days are the most difficult to trade in the long run..14:00
<szubaark> we've had a lot of gap days lately14:03
<NihabaAshi>  Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 688.90 --> + 2.1 14:04
<eminitrader> yep

nice niha
<szubaark>  Go Niha!
<NihabaAshi> Caught a WRB on the first contract and then caught a second WRB on the second lot...that gets me profitable for the day.

Whenever I can catch WRBs...its a good trade.
<eminitrader>  Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 1277.50 --> + 5.5 14:06
thats actuall 3.5 0n 3 cotracts
holdingig 2 for gap fill from 1281 avg.14:07
<szubaark> emini.. thats a lot of ES Points!
<eminitrader> thx szu ...made it woth the wait
<asuni> great Mr ET :-)
<eminitrader> thx asuni
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:08
<Chilly>  exit stop lowered YM @ 11196
<eminitrader> my charts showed stiff res today 1281-83 ..and with the gap opening ..made me hold for so long14:09
<pat255> sorry had to leave in ahurry...@office...:(14:11
wow gave it all back since am14:13
<szubaark> yeah pat trend IS NOT your friend. LOL14:14
<pat255> nice trade this am emini...could not take it..was looking L...dang meeting..
<szubaark> pat i should be like "excuse me guys, do u mind if i go watch the market?" LOL14:15
<Chilly>  exit stop lowered YM @ 11186
<eminitrader> always a next time pat14:16
<pat255> lol ...right ..
yes emini...
:)
<szubaark> meetings suck!
<pat255> yes ..but this was technical meeting so something to discuss but i agree...14:17
they suck...the boss has to feel the power ..14:18
so meeting is the best way to do it..
emini u guys are S?14:21
<marklc> short stoxxx 371614:22
<szubaark> think WHOLE room is SHort right now. Go Room!
<Chilly>  exit stop lowered YM @ 11176 14:23
<pat255> vn guys
<marklc> out +114:25
<eminitrader> yes pat short from 128114:26
<pat255> vn emini..14:27
<eminitrader> took some out @ 3.5pts ..holding some for the gap fill
<pat255> wtg ...
<eminitrader> :)
<marklc> short DAX 5687.5014:31

out -2.514:34
<szubaark>  Covered all Short NQ at 1511.25 --> + 3.75 14:35
some support here
<eminitrader> prolly just stalling at today's lod14:36
<Chilly>  Trailing Stop Hit YM @ 11176 --> + 44 14:38
<pat255> vn chilly14:39
<Chilly> thanks, now it will clunk another 30 points :)14:40
<eminitrader> excellent :)
<Chilly> thanks, you too
  

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<szubaark> im pretty happy. i rode it up then down with only 1 Stop out in between14:41

didnt even have to catch the frikin top or bottom
<Chilly> nice work! swing master!!
<eminitrader> missed ur exit ...nice day szu14:42
<szubaark> yeah.. im the Master Of Disaster. loool14:44
<eminitrader> pullback to 1278 -1280 would be nice
<pat255> does not look like14:46
<eminitrader> u prolly right
<pat255> no energy14:47
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1275 --> + 7 14:52

thats actaually 6pts
<pat255> wow excellent
<eminitrader> holding 1 more target 1271

thx pat14:53

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1272 --> + 10 15:06

gap filled

would have loved a tenner ...actaually thats 9 pts15:07

done for the day ...see u all tommorow
<Chilly> super trade , c ya
<NihabaAshi> Excellent trade eminitrader...very nice.15:08

Ooops...didn't realized eminit was gone already.15:10
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)15:20
<marklc> short dax 567415:32
<Chilly> what are the dax electronic trading hours?15:33
<marklc> 2:00 AM et TO 9:00 PM ET15:35
<Chilly> ok, thanks
<marklc> out +2.515:37
<Chilly> gn folks15:47
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:32
<NihabaAshi> Take care all...tomorrow through Friday we shouldn't see that chop like we saw today in the hour of trading today.16:33
See all tomorrow.
* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Aug 14 16:33:51 2006
  
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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:  

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2 

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ and SPY

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

Last of all, if you have any questions about either #EminiFutures general market chat room, #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting room or the two realtime strategy discussion rooms used by traders with access to our fee-based strategies called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.

Sincerely,

M.A. Perry and Associates

TheStrategyLab.com

questions@thestrategylab.com

"The point of this whole exercise is to make money. Everything else is just conversation." --Jonathan Hoenig


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