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#FuturesTrades July 11th Wednesday 2007 Trade Log

 

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year
+12.50 +79.20 +1767.70
$1,250 $7,920 $176,770

Not Available

click on image to view actual size

 

Current Performance Record

July 12th ER2 Key WRB S/R Zones

Profit/Loss Statement

 

General Chat Room/Log Info: The above points along with profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Also, #FuturesTrades is free to any trader and I am the only trader in #FuturesTrades that represents TheStrategyLab.com

My main function in #FuturesTrades is to be the moderator and I use the chat room as more eyes on the markets to help prevent missing critical market info that have impact on my trades.

#FuturesTrades is not a signal calling chat room and all users are required to post at least one trade (real money or simulator) per day of use or participate in the market discussions.

  Lurking (not participating) in #FuturesTrades will not allow you to reach your trading goals nor will it answer your questions that you need answered to help with your trading. Therefore, it's to your benefit to participate in #FuturesTrades to prevent us from thinking you don't need any help.

General Strategy Info: Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

  Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, trade signal and seasonal tendencies.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets in the world.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

   
  #FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.
Session Start: Wed Jul 11 09:29:11 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades
* Now talking in #futurestrades09:29
<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm
<pat255> gm all
<NihabaAshi> Good morning all.09:30
Two days in a roll as a down gap at the open.
<base> gm all09:31
<NihabaAshi> ER2 Gap filled.09:33
Long ER2 @ 844.10 -> small size 09:34
3 contracts only
As long as I got Market Breadth support...its worth the risk to go Long when the GAP fills instead of trying to fade it.09:35
<Awash> mornign all
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 844.80 --> + 0.7 09:36
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 844.30 --> + 0.2 09:39
Shorts ER2 @ 843.40 -> small size 09:42
Very low volatility :(
Trying to do size in such market conditions is high risk.09:43
There are a 10am and 11am est FED member speeches today.09:45
There's also the 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report today.
Hopefully they generate some volatility.09:46
If not...I'll keep my position size small for the entire trading day.
<Brutus> 09:39 *DJ Trichet: Policy Still On Accommodative Side09:47
<NihabaAshi> ER2 price action has changed after my entry :(
  
Trading Edge: 

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   Trading Strategies ->   These strategies, from entry to exit,  will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI) 
  
<jperl> ER2 @ 1 week VWAP 2nd STdDev 843.8609:49
<NihabaAshi>  Covered all ER2 Short @ 843.30 --> + 0.1 09:51
Staying on the sidelines...until after 10am est because the "extremely low volatility" is very suspicious to me.09:52
<jperl> you can see that here (2nd stddev now moved to 843.47)...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-11/JP ERL_015.jpg
<NihabaAshi> Volatility picking up now.09:53
Is ECB Tichet still speaking ???09:58
Long ER2 @ 840.30 -> small size 10:03
<Brutus> Cant see any comments on DJ
<NihabaAshi> Thanks
Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 841.50 --> + 1.2 10:04
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1519.50 10:07
<jperl> ER2 VWAP 842.22, PVP 840.50...10:09
looking for return to VWAP
<NihabaAshi> jperl...good call.10:11
<jperl> usually does it
<NihabaAshi> I would like for it to go a little higher to around 843.10
<pat255> sorry jper what is PVP..?10:12
<jperl> sec
<eminitrader>  Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 1521.50 --> + 2 10:13
<szubaark> good call emini
<NihabaAshi> Oil has been making some noise the past week or so.
<jperl> PVP is peak volume price......see here for definitions and discussion....10:14

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/ f6/trading-with-market-statistics-i-volu me-1962.html
<NihabaAshi> Thus, I'm expecting some volatility here soon starting no later than 1020am est.
<pat255> ty jper
<eminitrader> thx szu
<jperl> yw
<NihabaAshi> Hopefully the volatility can take me up to my profit target.
Instead of dropping down to me trailing stop.10:15
Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 843.80 --> + 3.5 10:16
Caught a WRB above my profit target zone.
<base> Nice one.10:18
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1524.50 --> + 5 10:19
<pat255> vn guys ..
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1525
Shorts ES @ 1525 -> Add 10:23
<Awash>  Shorts ES @ 1525
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1524 --> + 1 10:25
Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1523 --> + 2 10:28
Shorts ES @ 1525 -> Add 10:30
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 843.80 -> small size

1 contract only10:31
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1523 --> + 2
<NihabaAshi> I didn't like how fast Oil popped and then began retracing...looking for a possible position reversal now.

Exited ER2 Long @ 843.00 --> - 0.8 10:32
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1522 --> + 3
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 842.70 -> small size 10:38
2 contract only
<Awash>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1521.50 --> + 3.5 10:39
<eminitrader>  Covered ES Short @ 1521 --> + 4
Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1521
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 842.20 -> Add 10:40
<jperl> ER2 @ VWAP 842.5010:41
<eminitrader>  Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1522 --> + 1 10:42
<NihabaAshi>  Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 842.70 --> + 0.5
<jperl> I need a break.....trades here...10:43

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-11/JP ERL_016.jpg
<eminitrader>  Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1522 --> + 1
think i.m done for now..see u all in the pm10:44
<RONDOE> e-minigood job this AM10:45
<PapaJon> yes.. remarkable trading et
<eminitrader> thx R pj

just that supp/res areas worked out good today10:46
<Awash> yep
they did
<eminitrader> :)
<Awash> still short from HOD
<eminitrader> k..
<Awash> i expect a lot more movement today10:47
<eminitrader> i wld go long around 1519-1521 for a retest of highs
<pdays>  Long ER2 @ 842 10:48
<NihabaAshi>  Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 842.90 --> + 0.2 10:50
<pdays>  Exited all ER2 Long @ 842.5 --> + 0.5 10:52
<ItalianSharp> trichet still talking10:54

wow, that guys is pretty talkative

[10:54:40] <iNews> 10:54ET TRICHET - "IT WON'T WORK" FOR EUROPEAN GOVTS TO TELL TRICHET WHAT TO DO ON FX [RTR]

almost all european prime ministers hate trichet...i am sure he'll be the ruin of european economy10:55
<losfer> Long NQ@1996.7511:03
<NihabaAshi> Ok guys/gals...you know what usually happens when I go to lunch :)11:11

I'm going to lunch now so be on the look out for those parabolic price moves while I'm gone.

Be back later in about an hour.
<losfer> exit NQ@1996
* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
<ItalianSharp> thanks for leaving niha...we'll enjoy the volatility while you eat sushi...:P11:12
plosser's speech isn't producing any volatility at the moment...11:16
<Awash> visible resistance in ES Pivot area of 1527.7511:49
<Brutus> 07/11/2007 11:52 *DJ Fed's Plosser: Will Continue To Be Vigilent On Inflation11:52
07/11/2007 11:52 *DJ Fed Plosser: Far From Certain Inflation Will Moderate In '0811:53
<Awash>  Shorts ES @ 1528 12:01
<pat255> ty all c u all later12:03
<Awash> double top, failure to set new high, and slowing momentum confirmed12:20
* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi12:27
* sep34 is now known as sep34_away12:29
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 844.40 -> small size 13:01

That wasn't a good entry especially since the entry interval closed as a WRB.13:05

Exited all ER2 Long @ 844.60 --> + 0.2 13:06

Hi adas12...welcome :)13:07
<adas12> hi
<Fleneer>  trading range mid day. flip your favorite trading coin. Jump in. Hang on.13:21
<Awash> failed breakout at HOD on ES13:55
some selling taking us lower13:56
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1526.50 13:57
<Awash> looked like good distribution at highs
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1525 -> Add 13:59
<Awash> here is support for the longs14:00
if this tanks, the sellers will make there point aggressively
<eminitrader>  Long ES @ 1525 -> Add 14:04

holding 1514:05
<Awash> k
isn't this the change of trend point
<eminitrader> not yet14:06
<Awash> we're at the 50% retracement area for the trend
<jperl> trend is donw for ER2....price action is below VWAP14:07
<eminitrader> add 15 more
Long ES @ 1523 -> Add
just avg down ...never do it...
<Awash> k
<eminitrader> avg 30 @ 1524.2514:08
Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 1524.75 --> + 1.75 14:10
no out 20 with 0.5
holding 10 from avg 1524.25
<Awash> some buying came in at 1523 area
<eminitrader> cause its a retrace level
well one of the reasons :)14:11
anyways bad trade management..
<Awash> i know

i know about the retracement area
<eminitrader> shld have had a stop...14:12
<Awash> one question, at what point would you say the morning and afternoon uptrend has changed?
<eminitrader> now will sell heavily ...lloks like a brek down of the mrkt14:13
Exited ES Long @ 1525.25 --> - 1.25 14:14
holding 5
my sell area is 1526-1527
A + to answer ur Q ...trend change - 1st step was brek 1524 next was retrace from 1523 as expected and then confirmed @ 2:15 by my ma's ...so trend is now down ...need to find optimal entry14:18
Exited ES Long @ 1526 --> - 0.5
Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1526
<Awash> k
<eminitrader>  Shorts ES @ 1626.50 -> Add 14:19
holding 10
Shorts ES @ 1527 -> Add 14:20
now i'm well positioned for the move..14:21
need to see if it works out as per the flow so far
<Awash> agree

we need to retest 1523 area14:22
<eminitrader> the earlier trade was a bad example...was lucky to make some money out of it ...shld have been out and then taken this trade once the set-up was confirmed14:23
<Awash> E, you generally short the HOD
<eminitrader> thats true A ...but trend can change anytime...so its do the best with what the flow is saying right now and right now its saying test of lod and maybe new lows14:24
no A ..not w/o any set-up
<Awash> k, understandable14:25

good commentary
<szubaark> :)
<Awash> you know what i saw at the HOD, which i don't see frequently14:26

YM & NQ kept advancing

kept advancing
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 843.60 -> small size
<Awash> however, when ES touch 1529, just a couple of ticks above HOD, Volume started increasing and no price advancement higher, but YM kept moving up14:27
<jperl> ER2 @ VWAP 843.61
<eminitrader> jhappens when watching too many indicators...kinda messes up the true picture and sends conflicting signals14:28
<NihabaAshi>  Shorts ER2 @ 844.40 -> Add 14:29
Covered all ER2 Short @ 844.60 --> - 1.2 14:31
Shorts ER2 @ 844.20 -> small size 14:32
2 contracts only
Shorts ER2 @ 843.40 -> Add 14:33
<Awash> what do you mean "[13:28] <eminitrader> jhappens when watching too many indicators...kinda messes up the true picture and sends conflicting signals"14:34
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1524.50 --> + 2.5
mean like today ...ym and nq not moving like ES or not in alignment...this makes u second guess14:36
<Awash> k14:37
* sep34_away is now known as sep3414:38
<eminitrader> be back14:39
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)14:43
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 843.00 --> + 0.4

Got a second chance on that cover of the ADD after messing it up the first time.14:44

:(14:46

This WRB s/r zone is like "glue"...it doesn't want anything to break out of the zone.14:48
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1523.50 --> + 2.5 14:50
<NihabaAshi>  Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 842.50 --> + 1.7 14:52

caught a Dark WRB just below the s/r zone.14:53

exit stop lowered ER2 @ 842.80 14:54
<eminitrader>  Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1522.50 --> + 3.5
holding 5 ...will hold for test of lows
<NihabaAshi>  exit stop lowered ER2 @ 842.60 14:55
<eminitrader> anyone else take the short on ES ?
<Awash> i'm still short14:56
<eminitrader> from the am ?
<NihabaAshi> Does it count that ES helped me on my ER2 short :)
<Awash> yes
<eminitrader> k

sure N..any sell volume helps :))
<szubaark> Niha havent seen u trade the ES in Ages
<NihabaAshi> szubaark...actually I monitor more closely other key trading instruments than I do ER2.14:57

Simply, I only have one chart on my screen for ER2 and multiple charts of everything else.14:58

Just got picked pocketed :(14:59

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 842.60 --> + 1.6

Still reached my profit goal for the day.15:00

1 contract only fro the remainder of the day.
<venedom> g afternoon15:01
lost the morning was good?
<jperl> done for today.....trades here...15:02

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-11/JP ERL_017.jpg
<venedom> you see the morning I am busy you kill the mkt and dont call
<eminitrader> i have been way too aggresive this week in terms of size...kinda hurting my emotions and making me do stupid things...things i wld do when i started....need to put an end on this...

only max of 5 lots rest of the wk for me...15:03

more than 150 contracts traded so far this wk...15:04
<NihabaAshi>  Long ER2 @ 842.00 -> small size
<venedom> broker happy em?15:05
<eminitrader> guess so v :))...lobster dinners all around
<venedom> new car for him
<eminitrader> lol15:06
<venedom> he is even thinking of changing wife on your comm15:07
<NihabaAshi>  Exited ER2 Long @ 843.10 --> + 1.1
<venedom> n1 n
<NihabaAshi> Thanks especially since my profit target was only 3 ticks.15:08
<Awash>  Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1523.50 --> + 4.5
<szubaark> nice A
<venedom> homerun
<eminitrader> yes real nice :))
<venedom> with bases loaded
<Awash> Exit half at 1523.50 from initial short at 1525, + 1.5015:09
<eminitrader> good patience
<NihabaAshi> You guys look like tag team wrestling on ES :)
<Awash> still short from second short at 1528
<eminitrader> what was ur stop A ...looks like it went abt 5 pts from ur entry
<venedom> and I was away... had daughther year end school act so it was in a good cause
<eminitrader> :))15:10
<szubaark> The Dynamic Duo
<eminitrader> thats the other thing this proffession is helping me in ---spending more time with my kids
<Awash> had a wide stop because it is a longer term play
<venedom> what was your "old "proffesion
<eminitrader> k

enginnering --15:11
<venedom> here 2 but I still have my office trade from there
<eminitrader> best of both the worlds :)
<venedom> civil engeeneer15:12
here
<eminitrader> k...automobile
<Fleneer> I retired from Engineering. Just not yet got the trading Biz working to my liking.15:25
<eminitrader>  Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1526 --> 0 15:26

take some time F...15:27

tooke me quite a while
<Fleneer> Getting there E. Trading a live Sim for about 18 months now. This ES game like poker. Gotta play a lot of plastic chip poker before ante up the greenbaacks.15:28
<eminitrader> :))
<Fleneer> Almost there. Today a good day 9-2-0 +4.50 net 444.40 and a green week working. So....15:29
<venedom> its never the same with paper money Fl
<eminitrader> tell u the truth...i went straight skipping the simulator...wanted to feel first hand the emotions...winning or losing....actually more losing
<venedom> stop in paper are easier, holding also doubling losing trades very easy let see real money15:30
<eminitrader> agree with you V ...
<Fleneer> I been there. Got the backlog of tax losses to prove it. Then switched. Sim is very close to the reasl market. I traded them both.
<eminitrader> [15:30:25] <venedom> stop in paper are easier, holding also doubling losing trades very easy ---JUST DID IT TODAY :))
<Fleneer> Doubling loosing tradeds sometimes OPK if the numbers keep you within the chart expectation and your money management guidelines.15:31
<eminitrader> true f ...but the pb comes when its not planned for15:32
thats what i meant
<Fleneer> If you keep dopubling up the position and dragging the profitable exit along you can make ewvery trade a winner eventually. But that's unrealistic. Not a video game to me. Serious business.15:33
<eminitrader> did it randomly today...thats why i;m cribbing
<Fleneer> Ooooo. Dart board trading. Not my idea of a successful strategy.
<eminitrader> exactly...
not mine either...
<Fleneer> I've eveolved to moving averages trend lines and Fib numbers.15:34

And my trusty ouige' board. LOL15:35
<eminitrader> i do ma's and fibs....works out for me
<Fleneer> You have a preferred Fib level? I tend to focus on the .382 more than the others.15:36
<eminitrader> 40-60 f...i look more at this area15:39
it depends on the initial swing too...if the swing is really large..i go with 40 and 60
<venedom> c u all tomorrow also a little late, tomorrow grandaughther year end school play
<eminitrader> later v15:40
granddaughter ?
<venedom> y
<Fleneer> similar .382 to .618 so we both swinging around the 50% levl.
<eminitrader> :)
<venedom> 6 daughther 3 granddaughther 1 more in the opven
  
WRB Analysis
  
<eminitrader> lol15:41

looks like pj got company :)
<Fleneer> V Is Time for a Boy
<venedom> let c
<eminitrader> looks like its abt time
good luck anyways :)
<venedom> ty15:42
<eminitrader> actuaaly there is no 50% fib level f...15:44
its the avg
.382 + .618 / 215:45
<Fleneer> yep. And some folks use 50%15:48
<eminitrader> actually i do :))15:49
<Fleneer> which begs the ? do Fibs (or 50%) or pivots or whatever work because of some natural function. Or because so many use them becaomes self fullfilling? Personally I don't care. So long as they work more than they don't. :o)15:51
<eminitrader> simply...it works for me f...not that ti dont watch the fibs ...i use it mainly for adding on15:53
i dont why though ..but its become so much a part of my trading along with the fibs15:54
<Fleneer> I only addon one time with a goal of getting out BE net. Elsewise I take a hit and move on.15:55

I watch the Fibs to decide where I addon. I want the target to be .

0.382 to 0.61815:56
<ItalianSharp> fleener, do you only add to a losing position?
<Fleneer> Mostly Yes I. I tend to take a profit and look for the next one. Will occasionally add to a green trade if I have a channel line or target that makes it a good diea.15:58

diea = idea
<eminitrader> IS when adding on fibs ...the first/second add always is beyound the initial entry ...assuming initial entry was at the 38% leve...so its always moving away when u add16:00
<ItalianSharp> thanks F & E16:01
<eminitrader> urw
<ItalianSharp> i happen to add to a slightly losing position if it's within the area of my pattern until i reach my ideal position size

sometimes, when markets are chopping around and i find myself at the wrong side of the range, i do add to my position...that's when i will be happy to get out at BE net16:02
<Fleneer> I simply want enough room I do NOT get margin liquidations. I want to control my exit.
<ItalianSharp> fleener, absolutely...i would never ever even get close to a margin call16:03
<Awash> taking off, holding two contracts overnight from (1528)16:05
good night all
<ItalianSharp> night awash16:06

jees...it's already closing time16:07

i lost track of time and i wasnt even trading

gotta go now...see you all guys tomorrow, good night16:08
<NihabaAshi> Take care
<Fleneer> all cash at the close. Very seldom carry overnight.16:11
<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow.16:33
<X>  #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)16:49
* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Jul 11 17:02:03 200717:02
  
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In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:  

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2 

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

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Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

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Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD  

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

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TheStrategyLab.com

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