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| Session Start: Wed Jul 11 09:29:11 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades |
* Now | talking in #futurestrades | 09:29 |
<X> | [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm |
<pat255> | gm all |
<NihabaAshi> | Good morning all. | 09:30 |
| Two days in a roll as a down gap at the open. |
<base> | gm all | 09:31 |
<NihabaAshi> | ER2 Gap filled. | 09:33 |
| Long ER2 @ 844.10 -> small size | 09:34 |
| 3 contracts only |
| As long as I got Market Breadth support...its worth the risk to go Long when the GAP fills instead of trying to fade it. | 09:35 |
<Awash> | mornign all |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 844.80 --> + 0.7 | 09:36 |
| Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 844.30 --> + 0.2 | 09:39 |
| Shorts ER2 @ 843.40 -> small size | 09:42 |
| Very low volatility :( |
| Trying to do size in such market conditions is high risk. | 09:43 |
| There are a 10am and 11am est FED member speeches today. | 09:45 |
| There's also the 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report today. |
| Hopefully they generate some volatility. | 09:46 |
| If not...I'll keep my position size small for the entire trading day. |
<Brutus> | 09:39 *DJ Trichet: Policy Still On Accommodative Side | 09:47 |
<NihabaAshi> | ER2 price action has changed after my entry :( |
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<jperl> | ER2 @ 1 week VWAP 2nd STdDev 843.86 | 09:49 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered all ER2 Short @ 843.30 --> + 0.1 | 09:51 |
| Staying on the sidelines...until after 10am est because the "extremely low volatility" is very suspicious to me. | 09:52 |
<jperl> | you can see that here (2nd stddev now moved to 843.47)... |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-11/JP ERL_015.jpg |
<NihabaAshi> | Volatility picking up now. | 09:53 |
| Is ECB Tichet still speaking ??? | 09:58 |
| Long ER2 @ 840.30 -> small size | 10:03 |
<Brutus> | Cant see any comments on DJ |
<NihabaAshi> | Thanks |
| Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 841.50 --> + 1.2 | 10:04 |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1519.50 | 10:07 |
<jperl> | ER2 VWAP 842.22, PVP 840.50... | 10:09 |
| looking for return to VWAP |
<NihabaAshi> | jperl...good call. | 10:11 |
<jperl> | usually does it |
<NihabaAshi> | I would like for it to go a little higher to around 843.10 |
<pat255> | sorry jper what is PVP..? | 10:12 |
<jperl> | sec |
<eminitrader> | Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 1521.50 --> + 2 | 10:13 |
<szubaark> | good call emini |
<NihabaAshi> | Oil has been making some noise the past week or so. |
<jperl> | PVP is peak volume price......see here for definitions and discussion.... | 10:14 |
| http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/ f6/trading-with-market-statistics-i-volu me-1962.html |
<NihabaAshi> | Thus, I'm expecting some volatility here soon starting no later than 1020am est. |
<pat255> | ty jper |
<eminitrader> | thx szu |
<jperl> | yw |
<NihabaAshi> | Hopefully the volatility can take me up to my profit target. |
| Instead of dropping down to me trailing stop. | 10:15 |
| Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 843.80 --> + 3.5 | 10:16 |
| Caught a WRB above my profit target zone. |
<base> | Nice one. | 10:18 |
<eminitrader> | Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1524.50 --> + 5 | 10:19 |
<pat255> | vn guys .. |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1525 |
| Shorts ES @ 1525 -> Add | 10:23 |
<Awash> | Shorts ES @ 1525 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1524 --> + 1 | 10:25 |
| Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1523 --> + 2 | 10:28 |
| Shorts ES @ 1525 -> Add | 10:30 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 843.80 -> small size |
| 1 contract only | 10:31 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1523 --> + 2 |
<NihabaAshi> | I didn't like how fast Oil popped and then began retracing...looking for a possible position reversal now. |
| Exited ER2 Long @ 843.00 --> - 0.8 | 10:32 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1522 --> + 3 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 842.70 -> small size | 10:38 |
| 2 contract only |
<Awash> | Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1521.50 --> + 3.5 | 10:39 |
<eminitrader> | Covered ES Short @ 1521 --> + 4 |
| Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1521 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 842.20 -> Add | 10:40 |
<jperl> | ER2 @ VWAP 842.50 | 10:41 |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1522 --> + 1 | 10:42 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 842.70 --> + 0.5 |
<jperl> | I need a break.....trades here... | 10:43 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-11/JP ERL_016.jpg |
<eminitrader> | Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1522 --> + 1 |
| think i.m done for now..see u all in the pm | 10:44 |
<RONDOE> | e-minigood job this AM | 10:45 |
<PapaJon> | yes.. remarkable trading et |
<eminitrader> | thx R pj |
| just that supp/res areas worked out good today | 10:46 |
<Awash> | yep |
| they did |
<eminitrader> | :) |
<Awash> | still short from HOD |
<eminitrader> | k.. |
<Awash> | i expect a lot more movement today | 10:47 |
<eminitrader> | i wld go long around 1519-1521 for a retest of highs |
<pdays> | Long ER2 @ 842 | 10:48 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 842.90 --> + 0.2 | 10:50 |
<pdays> | Exited all ER2 Long @ 842.5 --> + 0.5 | 10:52 |
<ItalianSharp> | trichet still talking | 10:54 |
| wow, that guys is pretty talkative |
| [10:54:40] <iNews> 10:54ET TRICHET - "IT WON'T WORK" FOR EUROPEAN GOVTS TO TELL TRICHET WHAT TO DO ON FX [RTR] |
| almost all european prime ministers hate trichet...i am sure he'll be the ruin of european economy | 10:55 |
<losfer> | Long NQ@1996.75 | 11:03 |
<NihabaAshi> | Ok guys/gals...you know what usually happens when I go to lunch :) | 11:11 |
| I'm going to lunch now so be on the look out for those parabolic price moves while I'm gone. |
| Be back later in about an hour. |
<losfer> | exit NQ@1996 |
* NihabaAshi | is now known as NihabaAshi_away |
<ItalianSharp> | thanks for leaving niha...we'll enjoy the volatility while you eat sushi...:P | 11:12 |
| plosser's speech isn't producing any volatility at the moment... | 11:16 |
<Awash> | visible resistance in ES Pivot area of 1527.75 | 11:49 |
<Brutus> | 07/11/2007 11:52 *DJ Fed's Plosser: Will Continue To Be Vigilent On Inflation | 11:52 |
| 07/11/2007 11:52 *DJ Fed Plosser: Far From Certain Inflation Will Moderate In '08 | 11:53 |
<Awash> | Shorts ES @ 1528 | 12:01 |
<pat255> | ty all c u all later | 12:03 |
<Awash> | double top, failure to set new high, and slowing momentum confirmed | 12:20 |
* NihabaAshi_away | is now known as NihabaAshi | 12:27 |
* sep34 | is now known as sep34_away | 12:29 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 844.40 -> small size | 13:01 |
| That wasn't a good entry especially since the entry interval closed as a WRB. | 13:05 |
| Exited all ER2 Long @ 844.60 --> + 0.2 | 13:06 |
| Hi adas12...welcome :) | 13:07 |
<adas12> | hi |
<Fleneer> | trading range mid day. flip your favorite trading coin. Jump in. Hang on. | 13:21 |
<Awash> | failed breakout at HOD on ES | 13:55 |
| some selling taking us lower | 13:56 |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1526.50 | 13:57 |
<Awash> | looked like good distribution at highs |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1525 -> Add | 13:59 |
<Awash> | here is support for the longs | 14:00 |
| if this tanks, the sellers will make there point aggressively |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1525 -> Add | 14:04 |
| holding 15 | 14:05 |
<Awash> | k |
| isn't this the change of trend point |
<eminitrader> | not yet | 14:06 |
<Awash> | we're at the 50% retracement area for the trend |
<jperl> | trend is donw for ER2....price action is below VWAP | 14:07 |
<eminitrader> | add 15 more |
| Long ES @ 1523 -> Add |
| just avg down ...never do it... |
<Awash> | k |
<eminitrader> | avg 30 @ 1524.25 | 14:08 |
| Exited 2/3 ES Long @ 1524.75 --> + 1.75 | 14:10 |
| no out 20 with 0.5 |
| holding 10 from avg 1524.25 |
<Awash> | some buying came in at 1523 area |
<eminitrader> | cause its a retrace level |
| well one of the reasons :) | 14:11 |
| anyways bad trade management.. |
<Awash> | i know |
| i know about the retracement area |
<eminitrader> | shld have had a stop... | 14:12 |
<Awash> | one question, at what point would you say the morning and afternoon uptrend has changed? |
<eminitrader> | now will sell heavily ...lloks like a brek down of the mrkt | 14:13 |
| Exited ES Long @ 1525.25 --> - 1.25 | 14:14 |
| holding 5 |
| my sell area is 1526-1527 |
| A + to answer ur Q ...trend change - 1st step was brek 1524 next was retrace from 1523 as expected and then confirmed @ 2:15 by my ma's ...so trend is now down ...need to find optimal entry | 14:18 |
| Exited ES Long @ 1526 --> - 0.5 |
| Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1526 |
<Awash> | k |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1626.50 -> Add | 14:19 |
| holding 10 |
| Shorts ES @ 1527 -> Add | 14:20 |
| now i'm well positioned for the move.. | 14:21 |
| need to see if it works out as per the flow so far |
<Awash> | agree |
| we need to retest 1523 area | 14:22 |
<eminitrader> | the earlier trade was a bad example...was lucky to make some money out of it ...shld have been out and then taken this trade once the set-up was confirmed | 14:23 |
<Awash> | E, you generally short the HOD |
<eminitrader> | thats true A ...but trend can change anytime...so its do the best with what the flow is saying right now and right now its saying test of lod and maybe new lows | 14:24 |
| no A ..not w/o any set-up |
<Awash> | k, understandable | 14:25 |
| good commentary |
<szubaark> | :) |
<Awash> | you know what i saw at the HOD, which i don't see frequently | 14:26 |
| YM & NQ kept advancing |
| kept advancing |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 843.60 -> small size |
<Awash> | however, when ES touch 1529, just a couple of ticks above HOD, Volume started increasing and no price advancement higher, but YM kept moving up | 14:27 |
<jperl> | ER2 @ VWAP 843.61 |
<eminitrader> | jhappens when watching too many indicators...kinda messes up the true picture and sends conflicting signals | 14:28 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 844.40 -> Add | 14:29 |
| Covered all ER2 Short @ 844.60 --> - 1.2 | 14:31 |
| Shorts ER2 @ 844.20 -> small size | 14:32 |
| 2 contracts only |
| Shorts ER2 @ 843.40 -> Add | 14:33 |
<Awash> | what do you mean "[13:28] <eminitrader> jhappens when watching too many indicators...kinda messes up the true picture and sends conflicting signals" | 14:34 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1524.50 --> + 2.5 |
| mean like today ...ym and nq not moving like ES or not in alignment...this makes u second guess | 14:36 |
<Awash> | k | 14:37 |
* sep34_away | is now known as sep34 | 14:38 |
<eminitrader> | be back | 14:39 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 14:43 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 843.00 --> + 0.4 |
| Got a second chance on that cover of the ADD after messing it up the first time. | 14:44 |
| :( | 14:46 |
| This WRB s/r zone is like "glue"...it doesn't want anything to break out of the zone. | 14:48 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1523.50 --> + 2.5 | 14:50 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 842.50 --> + 1.7 | 14:52 |
| caught a Dark WRB just below the s/r zone. | 14:53 |
| exit stop lowered ER2 @ 842.80 | 14:54 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1522.50 --> + 3.5 |
| holding 5 ...will hold for test of lows |
<NihabaAshi> | exit stop lowered ER2 @ 842.60 | 14:55 |
<eminitrader> | anyone else take the short on ES ? |
<Awash> | i'm still short | 14:56 |
<eminitrader> | from the am ? |
<NihabaAshi> | Does it count that ES helped me on my ER2 short :) |
<Awash> | yes |
<eminitrader> | k |
| sure N..any sell volume helps :)) |
<szubaark> | Niha havent seen u trade the ES in Ages |
<NihabaAshi> | szubaark...actually I monitor more closely other key trading instruments than I do ER2. | 14:57 |
| Simply, I only have one chart on my screen for ER2 and multiple charts of everything else. | 14:58 |
| Just got picked pocketed :( | 14:59 |
| Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 842.60 --> + 1.6 |
| Still reached my profit goal for the day. | 15:00 |
| 1 contract only fro the remainder of the day. |
<venedom> | g afternoon | 15:01 |
| lost the morning was good? |
<jperl> | done for today.....trades here... | 15:02 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-07-11/JP ERL_017.jpg |
<venedom> | you see the morning I am busy you kill the mkt and dont call |
<eminitrader> | i have been way too aggresive this week in terms of size...kinda hurting my emotions and making me do stupid things...things i wld do when i started....need to put an end on this... |
| only max of 5 lots rest of the wk for me... | 15:03 |
| more than 150 contracts traded so far this wk... | 15:04 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 842.00 -> small size |
<venedom> | broker happy em? | 15:05 |
<eminitrader> | guess so v :))...lobster dinners all around |
<venedom> | new car for him |
<eminitrader> | lol | 15:06 |
<venedom> | he is even thinking of changing wife on your comm | 15:07 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited ER2 Long @ 843.10 --> + 1.1 |
<venedom> | n1 n |
<NihabaAshi> | Thanks especially since my profit target was only 3 ticks. | 15:08 |
<Awash> | Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1523.50 --> + 4.5 |
<szubaark> | nice A |
<venedom> | homerun |
<eminitrader> | yes real nice :)) |
<venedom> | with bases loaded |
<Awash> | Exit half at 1523.50 from initial short at 1525, + 1.50 | 15:09 |
<eminitrader> | good patience |
<NihabaAshi> | You guys look like tag team wrestling on ES :) |
<Awash> | still short from second short at 1528 |
<eminitrader> | what was ur stop A ...looks like it went abt 5 pts from ur entry |
<venedom> | and I was away... had daughther year end school act so it was in a good cause |
<eminitrader> | :)) | 15:10 |
<szubaark> | The Dynamic Duo |
<eminitrader> | thats the other thing this proffession is helping me in ---spending more time with my kids |
<Awash> | had a wide stop because it is a longer term play |
<venedom> | what was your "old "proffesion |
<eminitrader> | k |
| enginnering -- | 15:11 |
<venedom> | here 2 but I still have my office trade from there |
<eminitrader> | best of both the worlds :) |
<venedom> | civil engeeneer | 15:12 |
| here |
<eminitrader> | k...automobile |
<Fleneer> | I retired from Engineering. Just not yet got the trading Biz working to my liking. | 15:25 |
<eminitrader> | Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1526 --> 0 | 15:26 |
| take some time F... | 15:27 |
| tooke me quite a while |
<Fleneer> | Getting there E. Trading a live Sim for about 18 months now. This ES game like poker. Gotta play a lot of plastic chip poker before ante up the greenbaacks. | 15:28 |
<eminitrader> | :)) |
<Fleneer> | Almost there. Today a good day 9-2-0 +4.50 net 444.40 and a green week working. So.... | 15:29 |
<venedom> | its never the same with paper money Fl |
<eminitrader> | tell u the truth...i went straight skipping the simulator...wanted to feel first hand the emotions...winning or losing....actually more losing |
<venedom> | stop in paper are easier, holding also doubling losing trades very easy let see real money | 15:30 |
<eminitrader> | agree with you V ... |
<Fleneer> | I been there. Got the backlog of tax losses to prove it. Then switched. Sim is very close to the reasl market. I traded them both. |
<eminitrader> | [15:30:25] <venedom> stop in paper are easier, holding also doubling losing trades very easy ---JUST DID IT TODAY :)) |
<Fleneer> | Doubling loosing tradeds sometimes OPK if the numbers keep you within the chart expectation and your money management guidelines. | 15:31 |
<eminitrader> | true f ...but the pb comes when its not planned for | 15:32 |
| thats what i meant |
<Fleneer> | If you keep dopubling up the position and dragging the profitable exit along you can make ewvery trade a winner eventually. But that's unrealistic. Not a video game to me. Serious business. | 15:33 |
<eminitrader> | did it randomly today...thats why i;m cribbing |
<Fleneer> | Ooooo. Dart board trading. Not my idea of a successful strategy. |
<eminitrader> | exactly... |
| not mine either... |
<Fleneer> | I've eveolved to moving averages trend lines and Fib numbers. | 15:34 |
| And my trusty ouige' board. LOL | 15:35 |
<eminitrader> | i do ma's and fibs....works out for me |
<Fleneer> | You have a preferred Fib level? I tend to focus on the .382 more than the others. | 15:36 |
<eminitrader> | 40-60 f...i look more at this area | 15:39 |
| it depends on the initial swing too...if the swing is really large..i go with 40 and 60 |
<venedom> | c u all tomorrow also a little late, tomorrow grandaughther year end school play |
<eminitrader> | later v | 15:40 |
| granddaughter ? |
<venedom> | y |
<Fleneer> | similar .382 to .618 so we both swinging around the 50% levl. |
<eminitrader> | :) |
<venedom> | 6 daughther 3 granddaughther 1 more in the opven |
| |
WRB Analysis
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<eminitrader> | lol | 15:41 |
| looks like pj got company :) |
<Fleneer> | V Is Time for a Boy |
<venedom> | let c |
<eminitrader> | looks like its abt time |
| good luck anyways :) |
<venedom> | ty | 15:42 |
<eminitrader> | actuaaly there is no 50% fib level f... | 15:44 |
| its the avg |
| .382 + .618 / 2 | 15:45 |
<Fleneer> | yep. And some folks use 50% | 15:48 |
<eminitrader> | actually i do :)) | 15:49 |
<Fleneer> | which begs the ? do Fibs (or 50%) or pivots or whatever work because of some natural function. Or because so many use them becaomes self fullfilling? Personally I don't care. So long as they work more than they don't. :o) | 15:51 |
<eminitrader> | simply...it works for me f...not that ti dont watch the fibs ...i use it mainly for adding on | 15:53 |
| i dont why though ..but its become so much a part of my trading along with the fibs | 15:54 |
<Fleneer> | I only addon one time with a goal of getting out BE net. Elsewise I take a hit and move on. | 15:55 |
| I watch the Fibs to decide where I addon. I want the target to be . |
| 0.382 to 0.618 | 15:56 |
<ItalianSharp> | fleener, do you only add to a losing position? |
<Fleneer> | Mostly Yes I. I tend to take a profit and look for the next one. Will occasionally add to a green trade if I have a channel line or target that makes it a good diea. | 15:58 |
| diea = idea |
<eminitrader> | IS when adding on fibs ...the first/second add always is beyound the initial entry ...assuming initial entry was at the 38% leve...so its always moving away when u add | 16:00 |
<ItalianSharp> | thanks F & E | 16:01 |
<eminitrader> | urw |
<ItalianSharp> | i happen to add to a slightly losing position if it's within the area of my pattern until i reach my ideal position size |
| sometimes, when markets are chopping around and i find myself at the wrong side of the range, i do add to my position...that's when i will be happy to get out at BE net | 16:02 |
<Fleneer> | I simply want enough room I do NOT get margin liquidations. I want to control my exit. |
<ItalianSharp> | fleener, absolutely...i would never ever even get close to a margin call | 16:03 |
<Awash> | taking off, holding two contracts overnight from (1528) | 16:05 |
| good night all |
<ItalianSharp> | night awash | 16:06 |
| jees...it's already closing time | 16:07 |
| i lost track of time and i wasnt even trading |
| gotta go now...see you all guys tomorrow, good night | 16:08 |
<NihabaAshi> | Take care |
<Fleneer> | all cash at the close. Very seldom carry overnight. | 16:11 |
<NihabaAshi> | Take care all and see all tomorrow. | 16:33 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 16:49 |
* DisconnectedSession | Close: Wed Jul 11 17:02:03 2007 | 17:02 |
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