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#FuturesTrades April 12th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades to be among profitable traders that fulltime or part-time as day traders, swing traders or position traders.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Therefore, do not use #FuturesTrades to judge the merits of TheStrategyLab.com strategies due to the fact that members of #FuturesTrades are using their own trade methodology.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab, #SwingTradingTSL or their own private chat room to post their trades with commentary.

Further, you'll find below the #FuturesTrades chat room text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) to be timestamp to help correlate the trades with your charts and the is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

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Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year

+3.30 +67.80 +1010.70

$330 $6,780 $101,070

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Profit/Loss Statement

There's no insightful commentary today due to the fact that I'm mentally tired.

However, as usual, the below chat log contains all the trades by members of #FuturesTrades.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to produce big price movement as the result of other key trading instruments in its own market or within other markets (intermarket analysis).
You can view the charts and a few clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Thu Apr 12 06:21:50 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 06:21

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

#FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 08:46

<pat255> gm all.. 09:19

hmmm more dump this am ..oil up..

* subq market profile charts for today 09:21

<NihabaAshi> I'm lowering my position size for today due to the volatilty expansion yesterday along with the fact a key s/r zone (April 3rd) was filled. 09:22

* subq http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/1 2/MP_ER2_S2.png

<pat255> thks niha..

<NihabaAshi> In fact, I think today's price action will provide clues for tomorrow's Friday price action. 09:24

* subq http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/1 2/MP_NQ_S2.png

<NihabaAshi> Therefore, I'm going to become more of an "observer today" and limit my number of trades.

* subq http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/1 2/MP_YM_S2.png

<NihabaAshi> Thus, hopefully today's price action sets an opportunity tomorrow for me to do some size. 09:25

<PapaJon> gm all 09:27

<asuni> gm niha, can u take a look a t strroom? 09:28

<NihabaAshi> ok 09:29

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 811.2 «« paper »» 09:31

Exited all ER2 Long @ 812.3 --> + 1.1 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 811.7 «« paper »» 09:32

my hope is for lower prices

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1446.75 09:33

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 811.30 -> small size

:( 09:34

Looking to dump this...too many mixed messages already.

Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 810.80 --> + 0.5

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1445.25 --> + 1.5 09:35

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1809.50 «« paper »» 09:37

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 811.00 --> + 0.3

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<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1807 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 809.7 -> Add «« paper »» 09:40

<NihabaAshi> So far it looks like the issue of "inflation and rate hikes" is controlling things right now. 09:42

:(

I think its something that will be on the minds of the big boys (institutional traders and floor traders). 09:43

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1807 --> - 2.5 «« paper »»

:((

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1444.25 --> + 2.5 09:44

<NihabaAshi> Volatility picking up 09:45

<szubaark> looks like a Globex low Flush 09:49

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1444.25 --> + 2.5

Long ES @ 1443.50 09:52

<jperl> ER2 peak volume 808.10 09:53

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1806.75 «« paper »»

exit stop set NQ @ 1802 «« paper »» 09:54

<Brutus> Long ES @ 142.5 «« paper »» 09:55

<NihabaAshi> Volatility declining a little and I see some weak support here for ER2. 09:56

<Brutus> Exited ES Long @ 142.5 --> 0 «« paper »»

Long ES @ 1442.5 «« paper »» 09:57

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 808.20 -> small size

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1443.25

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:58

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 808.60 --> + 0.4 10:00

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1439.5 «« paper »»

<pat255> niha very cautious today! 10:01

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1444.50 --> + 1

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...I'm keeping the size small, few trades today and taking profits earlier prior to a WRB pt target.

<RussellDaytrade> i like the price action, very predictable 10:03

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead

<RussellDaytrade> normal, typical, pa

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1810.25 --> + 3.5 «« paper »» 10:04

<Chilly> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1445.50 --> + 2.25

<NihabaAshi> Good patience Chilly. 10:05

<eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1445.50 --> + 2

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1445.50

<RussellDaytrade> all flat now, up 400, added on the drop i both expected and hoped for. :) 10:06

Exited all ER2 Long @ 810.4 --> - 0.6 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 810.2 «« paper »» 10:09

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1444 --> + 1.5 10:10

be back 10:12

<szubaark> nice emini

Shorts NQ @ 1809.75 «« paper »» 10:17

<Chilly> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1444.25 --> + 1

<eminitrader> thx szu 10:20

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1445.50 --> 0 10:21

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1813 --> - 3.25 «« paper »»

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1445.50 10:22

late post

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1447.00 --> + 1.5

<eminitrader> missed sell @ 47.75 :(( 10:23

<Chilly> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1447.25 --> + 1.75 10:25

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1815.50 «« paper »» 10:26

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1447.75

<jperl> ER2 yesterdays VWAP 813.11 10:28

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1449 --> + 6.5 «« paper »» 10:29

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1818 --> - 2.5 «« paper »»

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1448.75 «« paper »» 10:30

late

Covered ES Short @ 1447.75 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:34

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 812 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» 10:35

<NihabaAshi> Looks like ER2 has hit another s/r zone and there's some resistance at the current price levels. 10:36

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1447.5 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> up targets met and exceeded. :)

swwwweeeeeeeeeeet! 10:37

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1447 -> Add «« paper »» 10:39

back to original long size 10:40

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1446.75 --> + 1

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 811.4 «« paper »» 10:41

way way early

Exited all ER2 Long @ 812.7 --> + 1.3 «« paper »» 10:47

<NihabaAshi> ER2 reached another S/R Zone and there's some resistance. 10:49

<eminitrader> Covered ES Short @ 1448.50 --> - 0.75

Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1448.50

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is above the high of the zone 813.60 10:51

The low of the zone is 813.00

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1449.5 --> + 4.5 «« paper »»

thats +2.25 10:52

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 814.10 -> small size 10:53

<Brutus> dang knew the long was not over

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1450.50 --> + 2

<Brutus> lost my position!

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 813.50 --> + 0.6 10:55

<jperl> done for the morning..... 11:02

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-12/JP ERL_019.png

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1`450.50 --> + 1`450.50 - 1448.50 11:04

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:07

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1450.75 «« paper »» 11:09

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1450.50 -> Add 11:10

<NihabaAshi> The s/r zone for ER2 at current levels is no longer intact... 11:11

Thanks to the price action changing in some of the market breadth indexes. 11:12

<pat255> 814 not going thru ..

<NihabaAshi> In addition, ER2 volatility has been declining...

<RussellDaytrade> mks going up

<NihabaAshi> I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon (up or down) that should produce a WRB interval.

<pat255> vn em ...was thinking S ...hmmm not a good idea 11:13

<RussellDaytrade> http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view&current=er 4-12-07-1.jpg 11:14

http://s138.photobucket.com/albums/q277/ RussellDaytrade2/?action=view&current=er 4-12-07.jpg

there's my mornings activity, in the l/s acct

http://www.sound-effect.com/trackinfo.ph p?songId=159 11:19

<naked> NIhabaAshi: do you ever add to your losing trades? 11:21

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1448.75 --> + 2 «« paper »» 11:23

Going short again on next pullback up 11:24

<pat255> did not have the guts to S 1551...

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1448.50 -> Add 11:25

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1448.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> [11:21] <naked> NIhabaAshi: do you ever add to your losing trades? 11:28

Yes... 11:29

However, its planned prior to the trade and here's what I mean by such...

Lets say I want to trade 6 contracts.

For whatever reason I decide to take a trade within an s/r zone and I go into that trade with 4 contracts (position size error, intentionally or whatever)... 11:30

I'm 2 contracts smaller than I want to be.

If the price moves against me (I'm at a loss) and if it stays within that s/r zone... 11:31

I'll ADD to the losing position to bring it to the correct position size level.

Therefore, had I open the position with the 6 contracts I wanted...

I don't ADD to a losing position.

I do the same for ADDing to a profitable position. 11:32

<naked> got it

thanks for the clarification

<NihabaAshi> Here's something else that's important. 11:33

I don't adjust me stop/loss protection.

That reason alone differientates what I do compare to those that "Average Down" into a loser because usually they don't have a hard stop/loss protection (mental stops your using). 11:34

<naked> what are your usual stop/losses?

<NihabaAshi> I don't use fix stops...stops are ALWAYS differenct from trade to trade and it depends on the current price action.

For example... 11:35

My last trade today occur above a s/r zone I talked about earlier...

The next s/r zone above that Short position was around 816.00 - 815.30 11:36

My initial stop/loss was at 816.00

Had it started going against me...I most likely would not have allowed it to reach the 816.00 price area and would have dumped it as soon as it crossed above 815.30 11:37

My point is this...that s/r zone based upon "current price action" will be different in the next trade. 11:38

Usually my initial stops are place in a prior Hammer S/R Zone or a prior WRB S/R Zone. 11:39

<naked> that's good -- you stop when your trade premise is invalidated

<NihabaAshi> Yep.

Some trades when I'm stopped out (stop is hit)...its a - 3 ticks or - 15 ticks or - 20 ticks. 11:40

I rarely let something go to more than - 30 ticks on a ER2 trade but it has happen.

<naked> Since rallying 7 points this morning to the 814.00 area, we have since rejected that high. It is notable that the selloff yesterday morning accelerated at the 814 area. Sellers that still have more to do might consider it advantageous to sell in this area. A/D is approximately 1:1, which usually implies a ranging day. A break of 810.00 will likely bring in new lows. Prints above 813.70 will likely bring in new highs 11:42

<NihabaAshi> Also, I don't use risk:rewards and that's because my profit targets are independent of my initial stop/loss protection.

The only thing they (profit targets and stops) have in common is that they are based upon WRB Analysis.

<Nana_CO> late post

* Nana_CO ----[ Shorts ER2 @ 813.4 ]---- 11:43

----[ Covers ER2 @ 812.3 +1 ]----

<Nana_CO> sorry, was on phone

<NihabaAshi> Summary, I'm not a fan of fixed stops, fixed profit targets nor fix risk:rewards ratios. 11:45

They are usually in contradition with the price action because your trade signal at 0932am est is in a different price action with different volatility at 1115am est.

Fixed profit targets and fixed stops imply that the price action is ALWAYS the SAME. 11:46

That's not true and problematic.

Reason why I stopped using them in the late 1990's.

Also, just as important, if I feel my stop is too wide (too much risk)... 11:47

I lower my position size to bring the risk back into a comfortable area for me. 11:48

Another option for situations like that (too wide of a stop via the current price action)...

I stay on the sidelines.

Thus, not trading is a strategy itself.

<pat255> sure & sometimes the best 11:49

<naked> your values on trading are very similar to mine. i think i'll really enjoy this room 11:51

we should also continue that discussion on pairs :) 11:52

<pat255> k guys back to office ty all

<NihabaAshi> :) 11:57

<Brutus> Exited ES Long @ 1449.5 --> + 1 «« paper »»

<naked> i'm looking for the er2 to trade (then reject) 813.40, then for supply to reassert itself. Other markets should see a similar event occur. 12:00

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1551 «« paper »» 12:02

<naked> traded 813.40, but no rejection

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1451 --> + 2.5

<Brutus> Covered ES Short @ 1551 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:03

Shorts ES @ 1451 «« paper »» 12:04

Shorts ES @ 1552 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> ER2 within another s/r zone. 12:08

<RussellDaytrade> large up target just fulfilled 12:09

actually exceeded it by a few ticks 12:10

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1452.50 --> + 4

holding 2 12:11

<RussellDaytrade> still looks up to me, though it may come in first

* naked shorts ER2 aggressive 815.80

<eminitrader> uptrend was confirmed @ 10:49 on the ES 12:12

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1454 «« paper »» 12:13

<AmazingJason> Shorts ER2 @ 815.80

<Brutus> This is a great short at these levels imo, you can use a tight stop 12:14

<eminitrader> why fight the trend ?

u'll see buyers come in on every dip 12:15

<Brutus> true, maybe.

<eminitrader> unless u r pretty good at calling tops and bottoms :)) 12:16

<NihabaAshi> Whenver I see price action like that since 12noon est...

The trend is obvious especially when it has support from all the market breadth info. 12:17

If shorting this...tight stops only as Brutus said.

I would rather not short it and go Long or stay on the sidelines to continue watching.

<eminitrader> true niha ...but profit potential is not much ...piont is is it worth the risk or r u better off buying the dips and staying with the trend 12:18

now the trend mmay change anytime...but then wait till u recognize it to go ct 12:19

<NihabaAshi> The last two big profitable trading days has allowed me to relax like in the shade like a lion does after a big kill...

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<eminitrader> :))

<NihabaAshi> All those antelopes strolling by are in no danger unless they want to be eaten :)

<eminitrader> u hunt ? 12:20

he he he

<Brutus> I'm looking for a larger short move so the R to R is acceptable

<NihabaAshi> No :)

<eminitrader> no misunderstanding here B ..i'm sure u know what u r doing...just ranting some thoughts 12:21

<Brutus> thats fine, I learn from u :) 12:22

<eminitrader> :))

<NihabaAshi> Many of the market breadth info has retraced all their movement from yesterday except for the VIX. 12:23

<naked> vix closed positive for the first time since march yesterday. bullish imo 12:24

<AmazingJason> Covered all ER2 Short @ 815.80 --> 0

<naked> I am looking for a transitional move from net demand to net supply at this trendline. Specifically, for us o trade 814.50, then to sell on the first pullback. www.nakedinvestments.com/er2-tl-resistan ce.jpg 12:30

*813.50, not 14.50

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1450.5 --> + 102 «« paper »» 12:31

<RussellDaytrade> my work sez 812.87 on this p/b by 11;14 mnt 12:33

<Brutus> Thats a +1 on that short

will re short the 1452 region

<RussellDaytrade> with a possible downside of 808.57, if this doesn't find it's legs 12:35

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1450.50 -> Add

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<RussellDaytrade> today, i think both are unlikely to fully fulfill, as i think the mkt has an up bias 12:36

Shorts ER2 @ 815.9 «« paper »» 12:50

Covered all ER2 Short @ 815 --> + 0.9 «« paper »» 12:51

first trades in the s/o acct today

<Brutus> sell limit to enter short ES @ 1452.25 «« paper »» 12:52

exit stop set ES @ 1453.5 «« paper »» 12:53

<eminitrader> Exited 3/4 ES Long @ 1452.50 --> + 2 13:02

still holding the 2 13:03

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1452.25 «« paper »» 13:04

<RussellDaytrade> short again 13:05

if price drops into 816 in the next minute, it will coincide perfectly with my longer term pricetime projection trendline terminus of about 3 hours ago. i like it when that happens. ;) 13:09

looks more likely to exceed it, i suppose thats ok 13:10

ooohh, that nice, closed short

<naked> markets are trading at their highs for the day with advancers improving over decliners. The volume-at-price profile for the day is forming a distribution from 814.60 to 816.80. If we maintain this range, prices above 816.30 are advantageous for selling while prices below 815.00 are advantageous for buying. A decisive breakout up will attempt to re-test the 820 prices the er2 failed at earlier this week. A breakdown b 13:20

supported by the heavy volume flows in the 814.00 to 813.00 range. A breakdown below this range will definitely bring in sellers. VWAP @ 812.20. notable that thus far, we have been slowly trending higher. Buying is more probable than selling imo. 13:22

<Brutus> Covered ES Short @ 1453.5 --> - 1.25 «« paper »» 13:23

<NihabaAshi> A few more points upwards and today's price action will bypass the range of yesterday's price action. 13:24

However, today's price action is a lot more boring (more creeping) in comparison to the price action yesterday that had more hype. 13:25

Simple analogy...if wrong yesterday in your trades...it felt like getting hit by a train. 13:27

If wrong today in your trades...it feels like getting hit by a scooter.

<naked> for traders that add to losers, today would be the train whereas yesterday would be the scooter imo. this is much more trending -- so shorts that continuously add are in serious pain. if we continue trending up until the end of the day, we might notice an interesting phenomena caused by continuous short-adds. The phenomena is an acceleration of buy paper to meet margin requirements. 13:30

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:31

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1454.75 --> + 6.25 13:33

holding 1

<RussellDaytrade> s 2 ap 817.9, in the s/o acct 13:35

<NihabaAshi> To put this into perspective via today's price action and yesterday's price action... 13:37

Yesterday there were 3 Dark WRBs not retraced and today so far we have 8 White WRBs not retraced. 13:39

Based upon WRB Analysis...today is stronger than yesterday.

It's only because yesterday had that decent counter-thrust upwards between 11am - 1:45pm est. 13:40

<naked> nihabaAshi: interesting analysis of WRBs. i usually analyze the volume-profile to look at the "depth" of volume at each price level. today, we have a good amount of volume trading to "support" the markets 13:42

nihabaAshi: can you pls post a chart with your WRB observations?

<NihabaAshi> Give me a minute.

<RussellDaytrade> i expect a drop into 815.5 area 13:44

provided it does not mount another launch 13:45

<NihabaAshi> Sorry about the delay...there was a questionable WRB that's a little different when I switch servers at my data vendor... 13:59

http://www.thestrategylab.com/charts/041 207ChartTalkFT.png

<RussellDaytrade> closed one

<NihabaAshi> ER2 just retraced what's label on the chart as WRB 8. 14:00

Today now only has a 7 to 3 advantage.

<naked> what timeframe is that? 14:01

<NihabaAshi> 3min chart

<RussellDaytrade> thqats a skewed bvalance that in my opinion will now manifest in a nice giveback

which has just now begun

<naked> nihaba: where are the 7 wide ranging bars today? 14:02

<NihabaAshi> They are the ones labeled as White WRBs 1-8 with one of them being retraced leaving only 7. 14:09

<RussellDaytrade> one down, 4 or so to go

<NihabaAshi> Also, from a volatilty point of view... 14:10

Today, all the volatility between each White WRB was "contracting volatility" except for the price action between WRB 7 - WRB 8. 14:11

Ooops...also except for the price action between White WRB 4 - White WRB 5.

When that happens...consecutive WRBs without any contracting volatility...that's a lot of pressure on counter-trend traders. 14:12

<RussellDaytrade> yes, pressure on counter-trend traders, thats what i like, thats where i live. :) 14:17

let me guess, i would estimate that we achieved a ppoint of 2.75 SD of vwap, just shy of the 3SD, and only due to the length of time for the move to fully manifest, as opposed to a 'dynamic' rise. 14:19

anyone out there care to confirm and substantiate that guesstimate?

<eminitrader> ?><+@#!$%^&*????????? 14:20

sorry way beyond me

<jperl> ER2 climbing up the 2 nd STDEv since 10:30 this morning 14:21

<eminitrader> u seious abt that rd

<RussellDaytrade> thx JP, what was the max value at 818.8?

<eminitrader> well there u go ...jper1 is the expert on this one :))

<jperl> 2 std devs

std dev has been rising all morning 14:22

<RussellDaytrade> absolutely serious, as i said it is an estimate, i thought it had gottten closer to 3SD, my favorite place

<jperl> rarely happens 14:23

<RussellDaytrade> that may be why i like it so much. :)

i am now expecting 813, 812.99 to be exact 14:26

<jperl> return to VWAP would be 813.20 14:27

<RussellDaytrade> closed #2 at 817.1, flat now 14:30

* naked buys ER2 817.20 14:34

<RussellDaytrade> trendline terminus on 813 pricetime projection is.......13:07 mnt 14:39

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:40

* naked scalps some 817.90 14:43

<RussellDaytrade> short agin 14:44

* naked flattens 818.00

<RussellDaytrade> this is the point where moses is standing in front of the red sea,with the egyptian armies about to mow 'em down.... let's part them waters with a spike into 813, oh mighty one! 14:56

Moses

Oh Mighty One!

<naked> Notable that in recent ER2 activity, we have firmly rejected the 819 marker, again! Recall in recent days we have firmly rejected 820 - 822 area. Sellers are re-asserting control at this price area. Probability in my opinion has now rotated to the short-side. 15:02

<jperl> ER2 peak volume now 818.20 15:12

VWAP 813.64 15:13

<RussellDaytrade> is that refelctive of where the most agragated vol has transacted, or the largest volume bar? i have the largest vol bar at 2500 @8:05 mnt, =/- 15:14

* naked shorts ER2 very aggressive 818.00

<jperl> peak volume price is price with max aggregated volume for the day.... 15:15

POC for market profilers 15:16

<RussellDaytrade> ok, thx, maybe we'll test their resolve with a push down

don target is now 814.37 15:19

EM, you mulling a 'sleep-over' with that last contract? 15:42

<NihabaAshi> Very impressive two day price action. 15:44

<eminitrader> no rd ...will exit 1458 or eod 15:45

<NihabaAshi> Swing traders must be scratching their heads.

<RussellDaytrade> you gona have to teach me that trick of holding, my best trades were the early buys todays, which i released for relatively small gains, although i am happy and have no complaints whatsoever, just observing the relative merits, etc. 15:48

<eminitrader> thats the only advantage i have rd ...once u recognize the change in trend get into the very begining of the trend ...then wait for the buyers to come in and once this becomes obvious the trend i mesn . others who think they missed the move come in pushing the mrkt higher ... 15:51

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:52

<eminitrader> by then u r out at least part of ur position and hold the remaining ...safe trade with a very low risk and huge margin of profit 15:53

by change in trend i refer to todays price action....intial downswing and then a change in the flow 15:55

<RussellDaytrade> yes, indeed...i suspect that that is not the only advantage you have, but your point is taken...that is an advantage you trade well, and make very good use... i have taken notice of that, :) ... 15:56

<eminitrader> thx for tyhe compliment:))

<RussellDaytrade> i am still anticiapting 'new' changes of direction...otherwise reffered to as counter t.. and by usual profile am usually early, so that in practice, when i am relatively making profits, i usually close them early, etc 15:57

<eminitrader> same here though Rd ... i usually target 2 to 4 pts ...avg abt 3 on a normal trading day ...actually more like 2 ...days like thses where i hold for such a llong time are few 15:59

<RussellDaytrade> trying to prject into the future, and come up with ways to transition into holding some trades for bigger legs, even if smaller size, etc. it helps to talk about it.

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1456.50 --> + 8 16:00

<RussellDaytrade> you are demonstrating remarkably good consistency. good trading / holding again today. 16:02

<eminitrader> well was kina pissed at missin a tenner yest :)) 16:03

<RussellDaytrade> i am going into close short 1 in the s/o acct, flat in the l/s

did the es have a ten point swing yes? 16:04

<eminitrader> yes was in @ 56.25 ...low was 44.50 ..20 pt move and i managed around 8 pts ...

<RussellDaytrade> that is a great ratio of overall potential relative to the potential capture 16:06

<eminitrader> 50% i wld say is being a good trader

<RussellDaytrade> yes, very good....all that, and i didn't even see you take a smoke break! :) 16:07

<eminitrader> actually i did take some just dont mention it to the room :)) 16:08

<RussellDaytrade> thats where laptops with wireless come in handy. 16:09

<eminitrader> doest help much unless ur scalping for ticks

my orders are 95% limit so...npt much help here 16:10

<RussellDaytrade> yes, at times, there are advantages to just getting up and removing oneself from the screen, get a bigger perspective, fresh thoughtstreams, etc 16:11

<eminitrader> well u maybe right there ...

but i usually do a viaual in my mind during the smpke :) 16:12

<RussellDaytrade> alrighty, i am doing same thinking about employing longer holds, such as you do, doesn't always involve buying the low prints, etc. 16:14

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:17

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Apr 12 16:42:27 2007 16:42

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