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#FuturesTrades April 9th Monday 2007 Trade Log

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Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year

-14.30 +9.90 +952.80

($1,430) $990 $95,280

Post Easter Holiday Strong Trend Day

Profit/Loss Statement

I enter the trading day with a trading plan that today or tomorrow will produce a trend day and that I'm willing to ignore my normal trading plan to try and catch a big trading day.

Unfortunately, a trend day did not appear and I ended the trading day at a loss.

Other than that, a lot of little things I did wrong that could have produced a small profit for the day had I done those things correctly.

Nothing else to say other than that I will trade a lot better tomorrow especially since I know exactly what I did wrong today along with knowing how to prevent such problematic trading from occurring tomorrow.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to produce big price movement as the result of other key trading instruments in its own market or within other markets (intermarket analysis).
You can view the charts and a few clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Mon Apr 09 08:58:14 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 08:58

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTra desChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrad es.htm

* subq MP charts with delta coloring today 09:22

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 9/MP_ER2_S2.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 9/MP_ES_S2.png 09:23

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 9/MP_NQ_S2.png

http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/04/0 9/MP_YM_S2.png

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:25

<pat255> gm all 09:27

@office..:( 09:28

<PapaJon> gm all

<pat255> bulls not giving up.. 09:30

<jperl> ER2 Thursday VWAP 817.81 09:31

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 818.30 -> large size 09:32

<RussellDaytrade> i am still short one at ap 816.8. will wait to add if price rises sharply, significantly into the 20's

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 818.00 -> Add 09:35

<RussellDaytrade> looks like the es may have a couple points of pullback this am...1453 area??? 09:36

<eminitrader> think we close beow 1456 today...cld see a huge swing down ...high probability 09:37

cld be powerful if this downswing happens in the pm 09:38

<pat255> looks like em ...slow vol move up last 3-4 days

<RussellDaytrade> seems abt time for a move down again, maybe not real big, just enuf to turn them down for a couple days. 09:40

Iran sqauwking abt nukes again today, yet to be fully reflected in pcs, may be more down on that news 09:41

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.80 -> Add 09:43

Long ER2 @ 817.70 -> Add 09:47

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1455.75 09:53

<AmazingJason> little bit whippy here 09:54

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 818.05 09:56

<NihabaAshi> If it drops through the support area...it will be a no-brainer easy position reversal for me. 10:02

Exited ER2 Long @ 816.70 --> - 1.6 10:07

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 816.70

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1453.75 --> + 2 10:09

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<NihabaAshi> Reminder about what I said on Thurs last week... 10:10

I'm looking for a strong trend day (up or down) within the 1 - 2 trading days after Easter Holiday. 10:11

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 815.4 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:12

<NihabaAshi> I'm willing to take a loss or two to catch a big trend.

<RussellDaytrade> + 1.4

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1452.75 --> + 3 10:18

gap closed on the ES

high probability trade to sell on the bounce off here 10:19

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility dropping fast...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon... 10:22

Hopefully, it goes my way.

Covered all ER2 Short @ 815.50 --> + 3.4 10:23

That's incorrect math by the script... 10:24

Should have said +1.20 and not +3.4

Shorts ER2 @ 815.30 -> large size 10:26

<RussellDaytrade> i have an up t of 817.5

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 815.60 -> Add 10:31

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1454.25 -> Add

<RussellDaytrade> this is usually the point at which it splikes up and begins to gaff the shorts 10:35

<NihabaAshi> Whatever it does...I hope if does it with some "volatility" and not via one of those "creeper price action".

Its just too tough to get follow-through on the trades when doing a "position reversal" when its a "creeper price action" instead of a volatility spike. 10:36

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:37

<RussellDaytrade> yes, volatilty has really dried up, and compressed ranges ove the past 3 days, if one excludes that early am spike the thrid day back

could be more of the same today

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 815.70 -> Add 10:39

<RussellDaytrade> also, as an indicator / tell, if it does not spike up right about now...as it usually does, may be indicative that 'something is different' today, and to no longer ecpectt he usual

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility declining steadily now...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon. 10:40

<Brutus> RD if you are expecting lower prices the next couple of days why did you cover all of your shorts?

<RussellDaytrade> thats my style of trading, looking to go short again at higher prices, which i am expecting to see 10:41

very muted follwthru on that spike just now, no vim or vigor to it 10:43

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 816.00 --> - 1 10:44

Shorts ER2 @ 815.90 -> large size

It's time to abandon my goal of catching a trend day for today and go back to day trading instead of trying to hold a position trade all day. 10:48

Will try again tomorrow to catch a trend day with some size and hold it most of the day.

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 816.93

peak volume 815.57 10:49

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1454.25 --> + 1.5 10:51

still a good probability of new lows 10:52

Shorts ES @ 1454.75 10:53

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 816.2 «« paper »» 10:54

still very early in the life-cycle of this setup to be going short, buts thats alright, i want it to go higher, even as i am short. 10:55

<Brutus> sell limit to enter short ES @ 1455.25 «« paper »» 10:56

<eminitrader> es i think has reached its puyllback level ...hopefully continue its down move...unless there is a chop

<pdays> Shorts ER2 @ 816.3

<RussellDaytrade> time has just expired on the 817.5 call. possibility of a bigger up target of 822.6. hope so. 10:57

<eminitrader> i dont think er will touch 819 again today 10:59

i dont think = very low probability 11:00

<jperl> ER2 back to VWAP...

time for a break....

this mornings trades here.... 11:01

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-09/JP ERL_014.png

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 817.90 --> - 2

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1455.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.00 -> large size

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1455.75 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Back to day trading mode of a range...will look for a trend tomorrow. 11:02

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1455.75 -> Add 11:04

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 817.20 --> + 0.2 11:05

<RussellDaytrade> i guess it was just a few minutes late, no biggie, missed it by a tick again, not unusual, may still get it, either way, close enuf, i'm satisfied with my price and time projections 11:06

<pat255> em still feel down on es? 11:13

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1457.25 «« paper »» 11:14

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.40 -> large size 11:15

<pdays> Covered all ER2 Short @ 817.3 --> - 1 11:17

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1455.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:23

With current PA, Im thinking after 1130 we could hit 1458 before heading down 11:27

<NihabaAshi> 15mins of a 4 tick range with contracting volatility :(

<Brutus> Many stops in the 1457 range 11:28

<jperl> ER2 price action hanging aroun Peak Volume 817.40 11:30

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 817.80 --> + 0.4 11:31

<RussellDaytrade> the er stopped, and has hesitated, right at my target. like a 'good dog' it is waiting for further instructions from me, and standing obediantly by. :)

'go boy', onward to 822.6! 11:32

<Brutus> Each minute reduces the probability for my outlook 11:40

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:46

* Nana_CO ----[ shorts ER2 @ 818.0 ]---- 11:47

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 817.80 -> large size 11:49

I don't like price action putting pressure on me when I'm hungry to go to lunch. 12:03

:)

<RussellDaytrade> if mkt gets moving to dnside, my t for er is 811.22 12:05

* Nana_CO is now known as Nana_afk 12:06

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 817.02 12:07

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 818.20 --> - 0.4

I'm not sure what the heck is going on with my "script math code" but its been incorrect on many trades today. 12:08

Will repost to see if my numbers get changed again...

Shorts ER2 @ 817.80 12:09

Covered ER2 Short @ 817.20 --> + 0.6

Going to lunch...be back later.

<RussellDaytrade> correction to above..dn t = 811.63

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 12:10

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1456 «« paper »» 12:33

exit stop set ES @ 1456.75 «« paper »» 12:35

Covered all ES Short @ 1456.75 --> - 0.75 «« paper »» 12:41

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi 12:46

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1457.75 -> Add 12:49

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 818.50 -> large size 12:51

* Looking up thn user info... 12:55

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:58

<NihabaAshi> Looks like it doesn't want to give me a 818.10 13:00

<eminitrader> Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 1456.50 --> + 1.25 13:05

thats a 0.25 on the avg

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 819.00 --> - 0.5 13:20

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 819.00

:( 13:31

Exited all ER2 Long @ 818.20 --> - 0.8 13:33

* Nana_afk is now known as Nana_CO

* Nana_CO ----[ Shorts ER2 @ 818.7 Add ]----

----[ Covers ER2 @ 818.1 +.6 partial ]---- 13:35

<AmazingJason> think it's just going to be choppy for rest of day 13:41

bouncing back and forth between support and resistance

<Brutus> buy limit to enter long ES @ 1455.5 «« paper »» 13:47

<NihabaAshi> Geeesh... 13:54

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1455.75 --> - 1

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<szubaark> the trend is NOT your friend 13:55

<eminitrader> + 1 from avg

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1455.5 «« paper »» 13:56

exit stop set ES @ 1454.25 «« paper »» 13:58

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1455.25 13:59

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 817.30 -> large size 14:01

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1454.25 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> nice little decline 14:02

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 816.80 --> + 0.5 14:04

Long ER2 @ 816.40 -> large size 14:05

That's a short...not a long...sorry.

Shorts ER2 @ 816.40 -> large size

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 816.2 --> 0 «« paper »» 14:06

gonna see if i can put it back out at a better/higher price, not being agressive enuf today in building a short, had a favorable prive action profile for doing so 14:07

<NihabaAshi> Volatility lost again :( 14:09

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:10

* Nana_CO ----[ Covers ER2 @ 815.9 +2.1 ]----

<NihabaAshi> I got the volatility I wanted but not a cover at 815.50 :( 14:13

<codehead> long QM 61.650 <paper> 14:20

Qm maybe too slammed to bounce at all into the close 14:21

target 61.750 on QM <paper> 14:23

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 816.20 --> + 0.2 14:28

Don't want to do battle with those Hammers

It came within 1 tick of my order getting filled at 815.50 14:29

<codehead> wow, i was about to type exit for 2 ticks on paper trade and it plunged--nasty crude close

<NihabaAshi> Looks like its one of those trading days :(

<codehead> you think tomorrow a trend day? 14:31

<eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1453.75 --> - 1.5

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1453.75

<NihabaAshi> Codehead...there's a high probability for tomorrow to be a trend day considering today was not. 14:32

My seasonal cycle has today or tomorrow as a strong trend day.

<codehead> that's what i was thinking

<NihabaAshi> Wish I had a crystal ball to tell me today was the day to stay in bed :) 14:33

<codehead> hehe, yeah

well, i kinda did stay in bed

<Brutus> 143PB? 14:34

OIL FUTURES:Nymex Crude Tumbles Almost $3; Iran Worries Ease

Shorts ES @ 1454 «« paper »» 14:35

<NihabaAshi> Oil started getting hit hard around 1243pm est

<RussellDaytrade> stocks should gain some on that, all things being equal, especially that they didn't react much, negatively, on that nuke banner-waving by Iran this am 14:36

if they don't, that in itself may be indicating something, which or course is also a possibility 14:37

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1454.25 --> - 0.5 14:38

<szubaark> s stayed in bed.. gave myself a 4 DAY WEEKEND LOL 14:41

Have Cash will Play :)))

<codehead> exit QM flat <paper> 14:42

<Brutus> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1453.5 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 14:48

<eminitrader> looks like a nice hold B...good call 14:49

<Brutus> thx, stop at BE 14:50

<eminitrader> shld break the low ...high probability

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1454 --> 0 «« paper »» 14:56

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1455 14:58

<jperl> no good fishing today.....only nibbles.... 14:59

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-09/JP ERL_015.png

ER2 back to VWAP 817.14 15:00

<RussellDaytrade> late post, short 1 817 15:05

Shorts ER2 @ 817 «« paper »»

i doubt that'll be the high for the move, but you never know 15:06

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1455 --> 0 15:15

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:22

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 818.3 -> Add «« paper »» 15:45

another early salvo

according to my work, 818.45 oughtta about do it 15:46

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 817.4 --> + 0.9 «« paper »» 15:55

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 816.60 -> large size 15:59

<codehead> crude finally gave me the bounce i was looking for--sheesh 16:10

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 817.30 --> - 0.7 16:11

<RussellDaytrade> ending the day short one, up 330 or so, less comm. slow day, didn't trade much, kept exposure very light.

thats over 2 accts

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:22

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:34

* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Apr 09 16:52:39 2007 16:52

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