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#FuturesTrades March 15th Thursday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+13.60 +0.0000

$1,360.00 $0.00

Rest and Relaxation

Profit/Loss Statement

Oil, Gold and Treasury Yields helped me nail my first trade of the day to give me enough confidence to carry it to the last trade of the trading day.

Also, I expected some tight trading range after the 1030am est Natural Gas Report until FOMC policy meetings next week.

In addition, the Thursday and Friday of a Quadruple Witching week tends to be less impressive in comparison to trading of Mon, Tues and Weds.

Yet, there was a bullish pattern signal @ 2:26pm est via the Trading Manual that has also been discussed many times for the STR users in the #SwingTradingTSL strategy discussion room.

Unfortunately I wasn't at the computer at the time when that profitable trade signal appeared.

Regardless, overall, I expect declining volatility between now and next week's FOMC announcement.

Simply, this weekend will be a good time to catch up on some mental rest and get some personal stuff done.

In fact, I got plenty of rest last night to help with the mental game today because I haven't been sleeping too well the past few days (sleep problems for the toddlers).

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of March...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Thu Mar 15 09:23:10 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:23

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<pat255> gm all 09:25

<jperl> ER2 VWAP data: 09:26

yesterday: 775.61

1 week: 784.85

1 month: 796.98

1 year: 751.01 09:27

looks like open will be between yesterday and 1 week VWAPS

9 point range

<PapaJon> thnx jp 09:28

<RussellDaytrade> in one week, prices have traded at both ends of yearly vwap

<jperl> yw 09:29

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 784.10 -> small size 09:31

<DevilDog> GM all 09:33

<NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 785.30 --> + 1.2

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 786.1 «« paper »» 09:34

<venedom> n1 N

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 787.40 --> + 3.3 09:35

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<pat255> vn start

<venedom> wow fast moves

<NihabaAshi> Thanks to Treasuries, Gold, Oil and Eurex :) 09:36

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 787.6 -> Add «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 788.2 -> Add «« paper »»

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 787 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 09:38

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1765 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 787.8 -> Add «« paper »» 09:40

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 787 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 786.1 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:41

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1761 --> + 4 «« paper »» 09:42

<venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 787.30 -> medium size 09:48

Covered all ER2 Short @ 787.50 --> - 0.2 09:49

Long ER2 @ 787.50 09:52

<jperl> ER2 back to 09:54

VWAP 786.58 09:55

<venedom> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 787.30 --> - 0.2

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 786.60 -> small size 09:56

<venedom> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 787.30 --> - 0.2

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 787.60 --> - 1 09:58

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 787.60

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 789.30 --> + 1.7 09:59

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 789.4 -> Add «« paper »» 10:00

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 788.6 --> + 0.8 «« paper »» 10:01

Shorts ER2 @ 789 -> Add «« paper »» 10:07

<venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 788.70 -> medium size 10:08

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 788.10 --> + 0.5 10:09

:(

Shook me out.

<venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 788.50 -> Add 10:10

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility declining...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon.

Shorts ER2 @ 787.80 -> small size 10:13

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 787.15 10:14

<RussellDaytrade> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 787.5 --> + 1.5 «« paper »»

<szubaark> 10:30 Natural gas report should produce Volatility spike 10:16

Hopefully ill get a good signal 10:17

<venedom> Covered all ER2 Short @ 787.50 --> + 2.2

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1765.50 «« paper »» 10:20

maybe we'll get a spike BEFORE the 10:30 report to UPside since im long 10:21

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 787.00 --> + 0.8

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 787.70 --> + 0.1 10:23

<szubaark> got disconnected suddenly 10:27

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 788.3 -> Add «« paper »» 10:28

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1765.50 «« paper »»

Exited all Long NQ at 1768.25 --> + 2.75 «« paper »» 10:29

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 787.80 -> small size 10:33

<szubaark> so far all Volatility spikes have been to Upside 10:34

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1407 10:35

think we are near HOD 10:36

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 788.10 -> Add

<Brutus> Es target 1395 10:37

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 788.10 -> Add 10:38

Shorts ER2 @ 788.40 -> Add 10:39

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1408 -> Add 10:41

<RussellDaytrade> you guys are starting to trade like me 10:42

<NihabaAshi> ER2 volatility drying up...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon.

<asuni> c 10:46

<NihabaAshi> oh oh 10:47

<pdays> Shorts YM @ 12272 10:48

<szubaark> this is getting intresting.

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:49

<NihabaAshi> Creeper price rise via the declining volatility :(

<pat255> yes ...tuff day ..

<NihabaAshi> I'm surprised ER2 hasn't tested 788.00 before attempting a new intraday high. 10:50

Nevermind...it just did :) 10:51

Covered 1/4 ER2 Short @ 787.80 --> + 0.6

<Brutus> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1405.5 --> + 2.5

<szubaark> good Shorts. 10:52

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/4 ER2 Short @ 787.80 --> 0

<pdays> Covered all YM Short @ 12261 --> + 11

<Brutus> Covered 1/4 ES Short @ 1405 --> + 2

<NihabaAshi> That's a +0.30 on that 1/4 (not zero)

<RussellDaytrade> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 787.3 --> + 1 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/4 ER2 Short @ 787.30 --> + 0.5 10:53

<RussellDaytrade> i got a little impatient

i expect lower

<NihabaAshi> That's a +0.80 on that 1/4 and not a +0.50

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1405 --> + 2 10:54

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 787.70 --> + 0.1 10:55

<Brutus> Shorting 1407.5

Dont hold me to it :) 10:56

<RussellDaytrade> may not get the op to again this am

<Brutus> Yeah thats right RD 10:57

<RussellDaytrade> had fairly good hangtime as it was

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 787.60 -> small size 10:58

<RussellDaytrade> i dare say, i saw a couple guys in here 'adding to losers', for some winning trades.

<NihabaAshi> :(

<Brutus> RD did a quick count, had about 8 factors supporting that short 11:00

<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 787.47

<RussellDaytrade> i am short from 785.6, but have traded around several times to be pftable in that acct, even with that sell 2 above that sale.

name a few of them B 11:01

<Brutus> Divergences for a start ES, NQ ER 11:02

<RussellDaytrade> ok, what else?

just missed my short add by a couple ticks 11:03

<NihabaAshi> Another tough trade in which the volatility spike will dictate the next decent price move. 11:05

<RussellDaytrade> all those buys that looked crazy yesterday, er up 20 plus points from those levels. :) 11:06

Shorts ER2 @ 788.3 -> Add «« paper »» 11:07

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 788.20 --> - 0.6

Shorts ER2 @ 788.30 -> medium size 11:11

<Chilly> Shorts ES @ 1405.00 «« paper »» 11:13

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:16

<RussellDaytrade> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 786.7 --> + 1.6 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered 3/4 ER2 Short @ 786.80 --> + 1.5

<RussellDaytrade> still waiting on that 785.6 to come in 11:17

<Chilly> Philly Fed at 12:00est ... has been a factor recently

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 786.6 --> - 0.5 «« paper »» 11:18

oh well, net pftable both accounts, took the loss, still expecting lower prices 11:20

Shorts ER2 @ 787.7 «« paper »» 11:22

got filled 11:23

<jperl> rather slow morning.....here are the trades.... 11:26

<NihabaAshi> Creeper price rise on declining volatility...expecting a volatility spike here soon unless that little burst was it until the next one.

<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-15/JP ERL_017.png

<venedom> Shorts ER2 @ 787.80 -> large size 11:27

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1406.25 11:28

<venedom> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 787.30 --> + 0.5

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 787.10 --> + 0.7 11:32

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1408.25

come and get it :) 11:33

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<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 786.9 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 786.50 --> + 1.8 11:35

Holding 1 contract

:( 11:42

<pat255> c u all later ...back to ofice ty all

<NihabaAshi> Got some distractions here at home and right before the Philly FED Survery Report...

Dumping my remaining contract. 11:43

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 787.10 --> + 1.2

<RussellDaytrade> an apex right here

<NihabaAshi> Be back later and hopefully soon to take advantage of the volatility to the Philly FED Survery.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<Chilly> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1402.00 --> + 3 «« paper »» 11:48

<Brutus> You are observing the Niha affect :) 11:49

<Chilly> exit stop set ES @ 1404.75 «« paper »»

<Brutus> NQ broke LOD MAny stocks looking weak 11:50

Covered ES Short @ 1402.25 --> + 4 11:53

Had a order entry error was trying to enter 1401.75

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:58

<venedom> REBOOT TIME HERE

<Brutus> Breifing traders saying chatter of a weak Philly fed 11:59

Contrarian indicator? 12:00

<asuni> c 12:01

<Brutus> Treasuries prices rise ahead of Philly Fed, traders cite rumor of weak number 12:02

This is being reported by Reuters.

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<Brutus> U.S. March Philadelphia Fed Factor Index at 0.2 after 0.6 12:03

New Orders Index 1.9 after -0.5. Fed Future Index 17.4 after 20.3

<Chilly> Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1404.75 --> + 0.25 «« paper »» 12:04

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 786.40 -> small size 12:08

1 contract only

Covered ER2 Short @ 786.20 --> + 0.2 12:11

:(

<Brutus> I'm thinking a 1405.75 short 2pt stop for continued follow through weaknes in the PM 12:23

Dax closing up 2% 12:24

Shorts ES @ 1405.75 «« paper »» 12:25

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 788.2 «« paper »» 12:31

missed the target sell at 788.5 by a tick, lowered entry to get short

<Brutus> Covered ES Short @ 1406 --> - 0.25 «« paper »» 12:32

probably no fill on that but its paper :) 12:33

<RussellDaytrade> does MB have a paper trade account?

looking for 787.6, no fill yet 12:34

<Brutus> Im sure they do, they give it to evaluate the software.

their hotkeys are good but quotes lag so make them ineffective when you need it the most 12:36

Already cost be about $60 today in delayed order entry for the ER 12:37

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 788.2 --> - 788.2 «« paper »» 12:52

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:10

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 787.2 «« paper »» 13:53

<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 787.15 13:54

<RussellDaytrade> any insight as to what that may indicate at this specific point in time JP? 13:55

<jperl> It indicates what it has always indicated....

Volume to the upside same as volume to the downside

no edge for a trader 13:56

<RussellDaytrade> right, equilibrium.

<jperl> if you trade here.... 13:57

you might as well just flip a coin

<RussellDaytrade> let me ask the question in another manner, do you view it as support, or as res?

<jperl> both

<RussellDaytrade> yes, have seen many instances where it is both. 13:58

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1403.75 «« paper »» 14:06

<jperl> ER2 back to vWAP 787.16 14:11

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 787.1 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 14:12

<Chilly> Exited ES Long @ 1401.25 --> - 2.5 «« paper »» 14:15

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1401.25 «« paper »»

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:22

<Chilly> exit stop set ES @ 1404.75 «« paper »» 14:24

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 787.00 -> small size 14:35

2 contracts only

<szubaark> Niha expecting Volatility spike here? 14:36

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 786.60 --> + 0.4 14:37

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 786.30 --> + 0.7 14:38

szu...I shorted within the volatility spike. 14:39

<szubaark> ok..im no longer watching ER chart as i feel it distracts me too much. Only have ES and NQ now

<NihabaAshi> Tried something new...possible future edge I plan on trading heavily in the near future to get find its weakness and fix them. 14:40

I'm done for the day. 14:41

<RussellDaytrade> looks like i got short again while napping 14:51

Shorts ER2 @ 787.5 «« paper »»

<Chilly> Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1404.75 --> - 3.5 «« paper »» 14:53

b/e on day .. terrible entries and exits today .. definitely not in the flow 14:54

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<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 787.6 --> - 0.1 «« paper »» 14:55

up 950 over 2 accounts, less 65 com. i'm going to be trading some new strategies that will expand my current trading styles. 15:01

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1405.25 «« paper »» 15:03

good work RD 15:04

<RussellDaytrade> thx Chilly, most all those were shorts today, except the pre-open long. good activity you're having. 15:05

<Chilly> I'm taking second tier trades today .. just not focused or asleep at the wheel 15:08

exit stop set ES @ 1403.75 «« paper »» 15:09

maybe it's working on my taxes inbetween trades that's causing the trouble :)) 15:10

<RussellDaytrade> worked on mine the other night, what a pain in the neck 15:11

<Chilly> Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1403.75 --> - 1.5 «« paper »»

Long ES @ 1405.25 «« paper »» 15:18

whatever I do, you all do the opposite 15:20

ES small traingle just expanding .. no breakout 15:21

<RussellDaytrade> Chilly, the volatility has compressed today. it has swung from expanded ranges, to tightened range, like most of today. your trading today maybe based in part on the level of volatility of the past several days. may involve either more patience, or some adjustments that help to coincide with the days character of trade. 15:24

being called away for a 'honey-do'. 15:26

<Chilly> good observation. I like also to watch Avg. True Range to see how much I can expect to get from a bar, but w/0 volatility it sure can be misleading.

Exited all ES Long @ 1405.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 15:27

late post .. typing above

c u all Fri 15:28

<jperl> todays trades here.... 15:29

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-15/JP ERL_018.png

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:34

<RussellDaytrade> JP, what indicators you have on your vwap chart. if memory serves, you use some deviation parameters? 15:40

<jperl> only thing I use is VWAP and its 1st 2nd and 3rd Standard Deviations 15:41

<RussellDaytrade> ok. will you let me know next time it trades at 2 deviations or beyond? 15:43

<jperl> sure....just remind me

<RussellDaytrade> as i recall, that S Dev varies depending on the ranges it trades. you know if the ranges within the S Dev's include prior days activities? 15:44

<jperl> I start the VWAP computation at the 9:30 EST open.... 15:45

so VWAP and StDev's includes only todays data

<RussellDaytrade> ok. in your experience, does it trade often, regulary, or frequently att he extrems of 2 SD or beyond? 15:47

<jperl> sure does

Here is what today's VWAP data looks like on a 2 minute chart

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-15/JP ERL_019.png 15:48

blue line is VWAP

red green lines are 1st 2nd and 3rd StDev 15:49

<RussellDaytrade> wow, those SD's seem close in! i had thought they would be wider. thats a nice chart. 15:53

<jperl> they weren't very wide today

about 12 ticks

on a good day they can be 20 ticks or more 15:54

<RussellDaytrade> yeah, was wondering how they may have looked on some of the days with the highest volatility of the past week / half

musta hit 8 -9 SD levels, or something.

<jperl> no that never happens....max about 3 devs 15:55

you have to realize that the stdev is dynamic...changes with price action

<RussellDaytrade> even on a 3 plus pct day? or a day when it moves peak to trough or vice versa 3%? 15:56

<jperl> yes

it just means the stdevs are wider

<RussellDaytrade> wow. next time we getta day like that, i'd like to see a chart of it. 15:57

<jperl> how about yesterday? 15:58

<RussellDaytrade> yeah, that was a 20 pointer move trough to peak, including today, about 23 or so. 15:59

<jperl> here it is....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-03-15/JP ERL_0111.png

<RussellDaytrade> sold them longs too early!

<jperl> stdev spread was almost 40 ticks 16:00

<RussellDaytrade> well, i was buying down in the 2-3 downzones of the day, doing waht i would look to do if i had that chart in front of my nose. thx for sharing. 16:02

<jperl> yw

<DevilDog> nite all 16:16

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:17

* DisconnectedSession Close: Thu Mar 15 16:17:45 2007

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