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#FuturesTrades February 23rd Friday 2007 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+13.40 +0.0000

$1,340.00 $0.00

Federal Reserve Member Speeches (leading indicator)

Profit/Loss Statement

I often mention how important it is to understand what really is moving the market so that you will know when the market moves.

These causes of market movement are the real leading indicators.

With that said, federal reserve member speeches will often cause volatility that pushes prices to move further than a WRB pt1 level. These are the times when you stay in a profitable trade, keep a profitable trailing stop and try to capture a WRB pt2 - pt5 level exit and that's exactly what occurred in my last trade of the day that allowed me to reach my profit goal for the day (see chat log below).

Also, I don't recommend traders that are new to trading or new to a particular trading instrument to be using dollars nor points as profit goals when their goals should involve following their trading plan and such can be quantified.

Next, if you become a profitable trader, that's when you can start using dollar or point numbers as profit goals.

Trading Tip of the Month: CME EuroFX EC provides clues to when the volatility will decline in the Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ and YM) and this is one aspect of not getting tunnel vision via monitoring only your trading instrument (intermarket analysis).

The chat log below contains a few realtime use examples of using EuroFX EC to help with my volatility analysis.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of February...click here. To see results for the months of 2007 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Fri Feb 23 09:28:53 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:28

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<Chilly> gm folks 09:29

<jperl> ER2 VWAP data....

yesterday: 827.50

1 week: 822.17

<pat255> jp u find 3 min or some tf vwap more useful?

<jperl> 1 month: 809.26

1 year: 747.86 09:30

You can use VWAP on any time scale you like....

for scalping...I use it on a 15 second chart

<pat255> byt from your experience .. 09:31

k..

<RussellDaytrade> beginning the day short 2, 1 at 828.9, and 1 from 816.5. damn that 816.5 is an albatross. f thing. 09:35

<NihabaAshi> I have a neutral bias at the moment. 09:36

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 828.7 «« paper »»

<pat255> fell right ut ofthe gate .. 09:37

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 828.70 -> small size 09:38

<pdays> Long ER2 @ 828.7 09:39

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 828.2 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 828.00 --> - 0.7 09:41

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 828.00

Shorts ER2 @ 827.80 -> Add

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 827.6 --> + 1.1 «« paper »» 09:42

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Trading Strategies ->   These strategies will reveal and explain specific strategies from entry to exit that exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<jperl> ER2 at yesterdays vwap 827.50

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 828.4 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> thats a fib level too from yest late up trend ...can expect a bounce here 09:43

<les> er2 still looks weak 09:44

<eminitrader> not say change in trend ...just saying a bounce from here...now the strenght of the bounce is what u have to figure 09:45

<les> yeah i understood u to mean that :))

<eminitrader> :) 09:46

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 828.1 «« paper »»

<jperl> ER2 pause at yestedays VWAP

<les> looks like pushing straight tho right now

<szubaark> yup..going thru like butter 09:47

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<les> market delta shows very aggressive sells, and quite weak bounces on volumes

<RussellDaytrade> stalling in here, for whatever eason. 09:48

<les> so there are some folk out there r not happy bunnies with their stocks right now

shorters taking profits i guess 09:49

<eminitrader> if it does not touch 829 on this rebound than high probability of new lows

true les...

<les> there it goes

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 826.70 --> + 1.1 09:50

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 827.5 «« paper »»

we now in some downcreep channel 09:51

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 827.5 --> + 1.2 «« paper »»

thats probably it for this fall

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 827.90 --> + 0.1

<jperl> yesterday's vwap is a magnet today 09:58

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 827.20 -> large size

<les> Shorts ER2 @ 862.3 «« paper »» 10:01

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 826.70 --> + 0.5 10:02

I'm having some trouble with understanding the price action here... 10:03

I thought it was best to dump it all.

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1846.50 «« paper »»

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 827.3 --> + 35 «« paper »»

ooooops

<pat255> tricky here ...

827 will not break down much 10:04

<szubaark> feels like more then just Shorts covering

<les> oic, my entry post was wrong

-1.0 for that trade

<szubaark> ES at Yersturdays low 1453

<les> looks like it may trade sideways awhiles 10:05

no reports today so that may mean it levels off after this initial action

<RussellDaytrade> i am beginning to ge the sense we will / may break the lows of past two days, and rip down another 4-6 points lower, or approx to 817-819. 10:07

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1848.25 --> + 1.75 «« paper »»

this could be my last trade of the day as i got other crap to do 10:08

<NihabaAshi> Volatility Analysis: It's declining for ER2 and I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon. 10:12

I was too slow to catch it :( 10:13

Usually I'm on top of those especially since I can see it coming a few minutes prior. 10:14

<jperl> Here is a 2 min chart of ER2 with yesterdays VWAP on it.... 10:15

<NihabaAshi> Kind'uv like someone telling you they are going to throw an uppercut and I just stand there without moving nor counter-punching :(

<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-02-23/JP ERL_013.png

Notice how price action oscillates about the VWAP line 10:16

<pat255> nice cahart 10:17

<jperl> I'm done for the morning..... 10:20

trades here...

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-02-23/JP ERL_014.png

<pdays> Exited all ER2 Long @ 827.1 --> - 1.6 10:21

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 826.6 --> + 2.2 «« paper »» 10:22

really tried to hold that one, in case it doesn't bounce again, and don't get another chance at selling a higher priced one. 10:23

seller above 828.5 10:24

<les> Long ER2 @ 827.1 «« paper »» 10:25

<RussellDaytrade> may try a 'nose-dive sell' if get the sense it will break 826 'con gusto'.

which i think it will, at some point.

Shorts ER2 @ 826 «« paper »» 10:27

Covered all ER2 Short @ 826.1 --> - 826 «« paper »» 10:28

<les> Exited ER2 Long @ 826 --> - 1.1 «« paper »» 10:29

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 826 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> thats a style that i find challenging to trade.

and thats ok. 10:30

plenty of room in the pool for everybody.

<eminitrader> :)) 10:32

<pat255> vn em...

<eminitrader> still holdin some pat

<pat255> vn hand it to u...good entry 10:33

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 825.1 --> + 0.9 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> thx ...but days like yest and today ...back to back r a rarity 10:34

<RussellDaytrade> residual short is now at ap 819.5, 200 gain this am, and residual 100 or so from yesterdays trades. sum of loss / drawdown now satnds at approx 600, and improving daily

with risk reduced to 1 open short. plenty of ammo to tradea round it to keep gaining. i'm going to free that captured comrade. 10:36

<eminitrader> dont mean for the mrkt ..but for me as a trader :)

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 825.90 -> small size 10:38

<RussellDaytrade> much as i want the mkt to keep sliding, i think we may have an up target working now. thats actuallu ok with me, as i want it to climb to sell at higher prices. 10:39

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 825.50 -> small size 10:41

<les> going down i think

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 825.00 --> - 0.5

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 825.00

<les> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 824.8 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 10:42

<NihabaAshi> Reversed from a small Long position into a large Short position...position size managment of my bearish bias.

By the way...that loser was posted incorrect...-0.90 on 1/2 and -0.50 on the other 1/2 (ADD). 10:45

<RussellDaytrade> that was a shallow-enough pentration of lows that it may not have negated an temporary up target countermove, though if so, (an up t countermove), i think it'll be somewhat small...oops, looks like thats off.

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 826.1 «« paper »» 10:46

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 824.40 --> + 0.6 10:47

:(

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 824.80 --> + 0.2 10:48

<RussellDaytrade> they're at the gates of hell, and they didn't like the looks of it!, so they're going the other way for a little while, (presumable to say their prayers real good) before revisiting it. 10:50

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 825.8 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> t = 828.1 10:51

<les> paste it i guess 10:52

oops

<RussellDaytrade> by 11:25 or so. think it'll be lucky to see 827. 10:54

if breaks 824 with a vol push, it may become self-fulfilling to downside real quick 10:55

<les> exit stop lowered ER2 @ 825.4 «« paper »» 10:57

Trailing Stop Hit ER2 @ 825.4 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 10:58

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:59

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1452.25 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> should race up some in here 11:07

Shorts ER2 @ 826.9 «« paper »» 11:37

startin early again

:)

<Chilly> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1454.25 --> + 2 «« paper »» 11:38

<RussellDaytrade> another .5 up fulfills 828.1 t

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:39

<RussellDaytrade> calling 827.4 close enough for practical purposes. 11:42

oops i meant 827.7 11:43

possible longer-term t of 832.4 11:50

asuni, i wonder if there is away you can fix being disconneted so often and repeatedly? 11:59

it seems needlessly annoying, to me, can't imagine you like it much. 12:00

<Chilly> exit stop set ES @ 1453.25 «« paper »» 12:03

for 1/3 12:04

exit stop set ES @ 1452.25 «« paper »»

for last 1/3

bbl .. guess we'll see if ES 45m double test of bottom holds ;) 12:05

Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1452.25 --> 0 «« paper »»

that's +1 ... next stop at b/e ... bbl 12:06

<RussellDaytrade> will cover that last short near 826 if busy elsewhere. 12:09

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:11

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 826.3 --> + 0.6 «« paper »» 12:12

wanted more outta that one, but since i started a little early.. 12:16

seller near 828, if gets there 12:22

EM, you there? 13:01

Shorts ER2 @ 827.2 «« paper »» 13:02

<Chilly> Trailing Stop Hit ES @ 1452.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 13:17

late post .. just back

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:23

<RussellDaytrade> will close that last sale if drops below 826 14:06

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 828.30 -> small size 14:19

<pat255> mkt in a funk.. 14:21

<Chilly> Long ES @ 1455.00 «« paper »» 14:30

<pat255> later guys ...wish u all a good weekend ...ty 14:31

<Chilly> c ya Pat

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:32

<NihabaAshi> Weird price action :( 14:33

<Chilly> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1456.00 --> + 1 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> It should have tested 829.00 by now with all the support it got :( 14:34

<Chilly> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1455.00 --> 0 «« paper »» 14:37

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 827.70 --> - 0.6 14:40

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 827.70

Pending volatility spike coming soon...ER2 volatility has dropped low enough for such.

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<Chilly> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1454.25 --> - 0.75 «« paper »» 14:41

<NihabaAshi> Volatility just increased in the EuroFX...usually a signal that volatility will further decline in the Eminis. 14:43

Expecting another volatility spike here soon in ER2.

CME EuroFX, Forex EurUsd, U.S. Dollar Index volatility has dropped. 14:47

Hopefully I get some more follow-through on the current volatility spike because the other key markets have lost their volatility. 14:48

Feels like there's an institutional battle going on in ER2...one house against the house. 14:53

Volatility spikes and WRBs are quickly retraced. 14:54

<RussellDaytrade> no real follow-thru tothe downside...yet.

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 828.10 -> Add 14:55

Lets see it this gets retraced back downwards.

Shorts ER2 @ 828.50 -> Add 14:58

I'm at a large position now. 14:59

It's at a WRB right now as a volatility spike...need to be careful about a retrace back upwards since that's been the price action all day so far. 15:04

There's a FED speech around 3:35pm est I think. 15:05

<ItalianSharp> i confirm one of the fed guys is due to speak at 3.35pm 15:06

<RussellDaytrade> feels like a win for the bulls, even withthe mkts down, with this lack of downside foloow-thru 15:07

<ItalianSharp> surprisingly, the best price action occured between 11am and 12pm...what i usually thought of as lunch break...

<RussellDaytrade> seems a bit early for lunch, evemn on the eastcoast 15:09

<ItalianSharp> it's not uncommon to eat lunch around 12pm...is it?

<RussellDaytrade> i tend to think of lunch as between 12-2 et

<ItalianSharp> ok...

i usually think of it as between 11.30 and 1.30 15:10

however, given no news due out today and markets kinda stuck early after 10am...

i didn't expect the upmove to occur right after 11am... 15:11

<RussellDaytrade> that sounds about right IS, with my approx timeframes also.

i actually considered that move, from 823.9 to 829 as still within part of the customary morning structure, as noted in t of 828.1 earlier, that was subsequently fulfilled 15:13

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 829.00 --> - 1.3 15:14

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 829.00

<RussellDaytrade> can't buy a downday, closes up every gdf afternoon.

<ItalianSharp> true....this market is not done with going up yet... 15:15

dont really know what's keeping it from correcting a bit...

<RussellDaytrade> f ah's starting to ps me off.

oooooh. :)

<ItalianSharp> guess they are waiting for all retail liquidity to be in the market before dumping everything

<RussellDaytrade> just don't let me buy on the first down day this things really strarts going the other way, you remind me IS. 15:16

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 829.00 -> Add 15:17

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 829.60 --> + 0.6 15:20

<ItalianSharp> niha, you might have been right when you said there is a battle between two investment houses 15:21

every upthrust is followed by a downthrust

worst type of price action to trade

<eminitrader> just gotto be patient IS ... 15:24

put the trades and stops in and wait

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 829.70 --> + 0.7 15:27

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 829.70

Long ER2 @ 829.80 -> large size

Exited ER2 Long @ 829.50 --> - 0.3 15:31

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 829.50

<jperl> pretty crummy day for trading....here are my results...weak profits 15:35

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-02-23/JP ERL_015.png

<NihabaAshi> I need to reach 829.00 on this short so I can be profitable for the day :( 15:36

<GoodMood> here we are 15:37

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 828.70 --> + 0.8

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:44

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 828.40 --> + 1.1

Holding 3 contracts

Crazy swing in my P/L window thanks to the Federal Reserve Speech :) 15:45

<Chilly> have a good weekend all 15:46

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 829.00 -> Add 15:50

It retraced and filled in that prior WRB...

Decided it's been doing it all day and it burnt me once on that...

<GoodMood> 2min ? 15:51

<NihabaAshi> Figure I'll re-short it at the WRB fill and exploit what's been occurring all day.

Yes via the 2min chart.

<RussellDaytrade> token consolidation prize for the bears, every little bit helps.

<NihabaAshi> Just 2 more ticks down...that's what I want... 15:55

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 828.00 --> + 1 15:58

Holding 4 contract remainders

<RussellDaytrade> holding any overnight? 15:59

overweekend?

<NihabaAshi> No...I don't hold overnight over the weekend due to all the possible "geopolitical" events occurring.

Covered ER2 Short @ 827.60 --> + 1.9 16:00

Holding 3 contract remainders

<RussellDaytrade> o/n shorts seem like a better risk proposition, in my view, for that same regard.

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 827.50 --> + 2 16:04

Holding 2 contract remainders

Covered ER2 Short @ 827.10 --> + 2.4 16:12

Holding 1 contract remainder

<RussellDaytrade> good hold Niha.

<ItalianSharp> well...you got 3 more mins for some extra profits niha... 16:13

<RussellDaytrade> nice trading, i think you may like trading the afternoons, after all.

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 827.10 --> + 2.4

I was only in the green this morning with small profits... 16:14

Then I got a little conservative along with underestimating those WRB retracements and suddenly saw myself in the red for the day :(

I figure then figure I can exploit their game too. 16:15

However, as soon as I got GREEN for the day...I started smelling a little blood and got greedy.

<eminitrader> lol ..nice way to end the day wk niha 16:16

<NihabaAshi> Thus, instead of being in the green by 6-7 points...

I got my goal for the day and closed out at +13 points.

<RussellDaytrade> well, you made up for it. from where i sit, and from waht i have seen, you are just as effective, and have just as good a read on the afternoons as the mornings.

<NihabaAshi> Russell...the afternoon trading sessions is my "weakness"...it has always been that way. 16:17

However, the past few months I've been paying more attention to the "market breadth" due to the fact that I tend to have problems reading the volatility in the p.m. trading session. 16:18

<ItalianSharp> niha, if you start being as efficient in the afternoons as you are in the mornings...i guess you are gonna kill the RUSSELL

<NihabaAshi> Italian...if I can get as effective in the afternoons without the swings in my account...

That's when I'll start bumping up my size dramatically.

Until then...I really don't have the confidence level at where I need to be for consistent (smoother) afternoon trading. 16:19

It's that reason alone why I tend to do a lot of "personal stuff" in the afternoon. 16:20

Trying to get something accomplish when I "feel" I won't be able to do the same in my trading.

Today's account swing is a good example of my problems in the afternoon.

I could very easy close the day down 13 points instead of up 13 points. 16:21

<RussellDaytrade> have a good one everyone. 16:29

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:56

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and have a nice weekend. 17:50

* DisconnectedSession Close: Fri Feb 23 17:50:27 2007

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Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

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