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#FuturesTrades February 6th Wednesday 2008 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+40.80	+111.90	+529.40
$4,080	$11,190	$52,940

Profitable Trade

0933am - 0941am est

Losing Trade

1514pm - 1515pm est

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Key Trades of the Day (see chat log below)

Profit/Loss Statement

General Strategy Info: The above profit/loss info represents trades by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi) only and all trades were posted in realtime as shown in the below chat log.

Although I'm not familiar with the trade methods used by most members of #FuturesTrades, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology that involves WRB Analysis.

There is some subjectivity involved with some of my trades when I'm developing a new strategy (hence the name TheStrategyLab.com) that uses WRB Analysis.

In fact, many of my trades or profit targets will occur within key WRB support/resistance zones because these price areas gives me a better understanding of key changes in supply demand.

Traditional pivot point analysis or traditional s/r levels are inadequate in understanding changes in supply/demand of the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 or any other trading instrument of today's markets in comparison to WRB Analysis.

WRB Analysis is also a key aspect in my use of intermarket analysis (ex. Oil and Gold), market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis and custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

Further, position size management is a key aspect of my trading and I trade any where between 1 to 9 contracts per trade depending upon the volatility, pattern signal, seasonal tendencies or intuition.

All of my trades and commentary for today's market action (posted below) are via the user name NihabaAshi (Japanese Candlestick term) and I exclusively trade the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though I closely monitor other key markets so that I'll have a better understanding of ER2 price action.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Wed Feb 06 08:41:33 2008Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 08:41

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<NihabaAshi> Good morning all.

<Brutus> gm Niha and everyone 08:44

<Andy> gm Niha, Brutus, all 08:46

<nqcruiser> gm andy, brutus and Mr Ninja 08:47

<Pepe> gm all

<base> GM all 08:49

<nqcruiser> i am crusing one minutes today 08:51

on nq

<rickf> gm all 08:52

<drt> gm everyone 09:18

<futurible> gm all 09:20

* sep34_away is now known as sep34 09:23

<ItalianSharp> we have 4 fed members speeches today...should be either interesting or very noisy 09:26

is bernie speaking right now?

<pat255> i think fed scrwed up .. 09:27

<ItalianSharp> i read that bernie press conference is due at 9.45am 09:28

perhaps this explains the little reaction to the 8.30am news

<PapaJon> gm all 09:29

<NihabaAshi> #FuturesTrades Poll -> What futures broker/platform do you prefer? Thoughts, comments, recommendations will be collected, anonymized and made available for all next week both on the web and in the TSL forums. Please send responses to rickf (#FuturesTrades member) at rickf@attrition.org 09:31

<ripsboy> gm folks...

<pat255> with this kind of drop who is going to buy..

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 706.90 -> large size 09:33

Late entry...short signal @ 707.80 09:34

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1344 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 703.40 --> + 3.5 09:35

Holding 1 contract

<Pepe> very very nice

<NihabaAshi> be careful...she's moving "extremely fast" this morning

Yesterday...took me awhile to realize when that type of speed occurs... 09:36

It usually retraces.

<pat255> ty N ..yes

<NihabaAshi> Reason why I didn't dump all my contracts below 703.40 09:37

<szubaark> Niha looks like its just the ER moving nuts

<NihabaAshi> Could be another day of ER2 doing its own little thing.

I hope not...I prefer ER2 when its in snync with all the other key markets. 09:38

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1344 «« paper »» 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 701.70 --> + 5.2 09:41

Trading Edge:
Strategies
If your an independent trader looking for an edge to help you traverse around obstacles to profitable trading...a method that's well defined, gives you a better understanding of the markets, applicable for day trading, position trading, swing trading, market seasonal tendencies, position size management, intermarket analysis with a money back guaranteed policy...click here.

Trading Strategies ->   Strategies used by NihabaAshi, from entry to exit, exploit inefficiencies in the price action for profits of the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis and Intermarket Analysis: Emini Index Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), COMEX Metals Futures (GC), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<szubaark> Nice Niha.

<pat255> wtg N ...

dang missed it & did not want to chase

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...I'm a quick study after having problems with the speed of the price action yesterday.

:)

<Pepe> yeah 09:42

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1339.75 --> + 4.25 «« paper »»

<KiwiRoo> gm .. 09:44

* subq market profile charts for today - take note of new URL - http://www.charthub.com/chart/search/mpc hart 09:49

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1339.25 «« paper »» 09:53

<Andy> Shorts ER2 @ 700.9 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 700.10 -> small size 09:55

<Andy> Covered 3/4 ER2 Short @ 700.1 --> + 0.8 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> 2 only

WRB target reached

<Andy> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 699.7 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 09:56

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 700.00 --> + 0.1

got greedy after my target was reached...

Should'uv covered :(

<robert> Long ES @ 35.50

<startrader> nice grab robert! 09:57

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 700.50 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1339.25 --> 0 «« paper »» 09:58

<robert> Exited all ES Long @ 39.25 --> + 3.75

tnx!

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 701.40 -> small size 09:59

<Nesi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 701.20 --> + 0.7 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> :(

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 701.60 «« paper »» 10:00

<NihabaAshi> moving fast again

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 702.20 -> Add «« paper »» 10:01

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1341.25 «« paper »» 10:02

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 703.30 --> - 1.9

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 703.30

<Nesi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 704.00 --> + 1.8 «« paper »» 10:03

Exited all ER2 Long @ 704.70 --> + 3.1 «« paper »» 10:05

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1341.25 «« paper »» 10:06

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 705.20 --> + 1.9 10:07

<szubaark> retracing again :((

so far no followthru like tersturday, could be a Long day 10:08

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 704.50 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 705.50 -> Add «« paper »» 10:09

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 706.90 --> + 1.4 «« paper »» 10:10

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 707.00 -> small size

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<szubaark> hopefully i can catch a WRB on this next pop

<NihabaAshi> Poor entry because signal @ 705.80 10:11

<szubaark> was it just a "signal

or "entry" as well?

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 706.30 --> - 0.7

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 706.30

* cwellsi shorts ES 1345 10:12

<Nesi> some pinball again

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1343.50 --> + 2.25 «« paper »»

tough to get nice targets as its frikin all over

<Nesi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 705.50 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:13

<szubaark> Bernake still speaking?

<rickf> short es 1343.50 paper

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 705.50 «« paper »» 10:14

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 705..20 --> + 706.30 - 705..20

ooops

that's a split 10:15

Covered ER2 Short @ 705.30 --> + 1

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 706.00 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> wanted to post the worst price of the two on that Short.

* cwellsi covers ES 1345 flat 10:16

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 13467 «« paper »»

<rickf> reverse and enter long es 1344 paper

<szubaark> Buys ES @ 1346 «« paper »»

* cwellsi shorts ES 1346.25

<rickf> exit es 1346 +2 paper 10:19

<szubaark> tough "pinball" action 10:20

<NihabaAshi> #FuturesTrades Purpose -> No gurus, no head traders...you're here to document your own trades and thoughts as you traverse from one trade to the next trade because it provides critical information you cannot get from your broker statements (real money or simulator)...use this room as your trade journal. 10:21

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1344 --> - 2 «« paper »»

Shorts ES @ 1344 «« paper »»

<rickf> short es 1343.75 paper

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 10:22

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 704.6 «« paper »» 10:23

Exited all ER2 Long @ 704.0 --> - 0.6 «« paper »» 10:24

<rickf> exit es 1342 +1.75pts paper 10:27

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 703.5 «« paper »»

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1344 «« paper »» 10:28

<cwellsi> Lacker speaking 10:29

<Andy> Exited all ER2 Long @ 703.4 --> - 0.1 «« paper »» 10:30

<Nesi> oil out

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1344 --> 0 «« paper »»

<Andy> :( 10:31

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 704.30 -> Add «« paper »»

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1342 «« paper »»

<Nesi> nasty

<szubaark> just like yersturday 10:32

<Nesi> but so far..imho, it feels "higher"

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1342 «« paper »» 10:33

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 703.3 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1342 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:34

Buys ES @ 1342.25 «« paper »»

* NihabaAshi_away is now known as Nihabaashi

* Nihabaashi is now known as NihabaAshi 10:37

<Nesi> vol breakout 10:38

<Andy> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 705.1 --> + 1.8 «« paper »»

<Nesi> one more pursh, and becomes continuation

there it is 10:39

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 705.30 -> small size

<szubaark> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1342.25 «« paper »» 10:40

<Nesi> vol spike again 10:42

looks vol breakout now

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 707.30 --> + 2

<robert> nice 10:43

<szubaark> nice niha.

<Andy> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 707 --> + 3.7 «« paper »»

<Nesi> i feel ER will try for 708.50 710 area

<Andy> holding 1

<Pepe> nice 10:44

<Andy> thanks Pepe

<Nesi> coiling

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 708.00 --> + 3.7 «« paper »» 10:45

<szubaark> Exited all Long ES at 1347.50 --> + 5.25 «« paper »»

<Nesi> PRESS RELEASE: Moody's Affirms Citimortgage Rtg Of Sq2 As A Master Servicer 10:47

(Dow Jones 02/06 10:46:49)

<pat255> hi em ...good to c u ..back 10:48

<Nesi> contracting vol now..imho

feels like upside... i hope

feels something has to give soon 10:51

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 707.00 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 10:57

<szubaark> Shorts ES @ 1346 «« paper »»

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 706.70 «« paper »» 10:58

Covered all ER2 Short @ 707.50 --> - 0.8 «« paper »» 10:59

<Andy> exit stop set ER2 @ 706.2 «« paper »» 11:00

normally I would be long gone from this long, but I wanted to feel what it felt like to hold onto a contract

for more than six nanoseconds

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 708.50 «« paper »» 11:02

<Andy> hit those stops... 11:03

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 708.50 -> small size

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 709.00 -> Add «« paper »»

<KiwiRoo> ES resistance at 51.50

<NihabaAshi> 2 only and after this trade...I go to 1 contract only for the remainder of the trading day. 11:04

<KiwiRoo> 51.50, 52, 53 are my areas...on chart.

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 710.10 --> + 1.6

<pat255> geez vn strike at the right time ...

wtg N.. 11:05

<Andy> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 710.2 --> + 6.9 «« paper »»

<KiwiRoo> Nice trade Andy.

<Pepe> Nice Andy

<Andy> thanks Kiwi, Pepe

<NihabaAshi> Yeah...amazing considering most of my trades today have been "chasers" which means I didn't enter the trade when the pattern signal appeared nor did I attempt to get a better entry price in comparison to my pattern signal price. 11:06

That's a sign that volatity is good.

volatity = volatility

<KiwiRoo> they'll try to push for 53....but 51.50 did held..... 11:07

<NihabaAshi> Another way to look at it...I can't trade like this "missed entries" during low volatility trading conditions.

I'll get killed.

<KiwiRoo> watch 51.50 again... look for 53 still :) 11:09

no buyers above... too bad... 11:10

* cwellsi shorts ES 1351

<KiwiRoo> Papers stepping in to sell now... hmmhmm....

<Nesi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 709.50 --> + 1.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Yep...I was hoping some more buying would occur above the 710 price area of ER2 11:11

<Nesi> Shorts ER2 @ 709.50 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> HOwever, ER2 doing a good job on its own in comparison to what Gold and Oil was doing a few intervals ago.

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 709.40 --> + 0.1 «« paper »» 11:14

Long ER2 @ 710.00 «« paper »» 11:15

<NihabaAshi> I need a push from Gold and Oil to get ER2 to test the 711 price level

<Nesi> dax helping

<NihabaAshi> Yep...that's 1/3 of the help right there 11:16

Hopefully the others won't be too shy :)

<Nesi> one more push 11:17

<szubaark> feels exhausted to upside

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 709.80 --> + 1.3

<Nesi> on the nick of time

<NihabaAshi> Gold and Oil temporary spoiled the party.

<Nesi> Exited ER2 Long @ 708.60 --> - 1.4 «« paper »» 11:18

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 708.60 «« paper »»

<KiwiRoo> boy oh boy..... 11:20

-X- The BANNER Frequency has been set to 60:minutes

<KiwiRoo> they need momentum to push through 51.50...

<Nesi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 708.60 --> 0 «« paper »» 11:21

<KiwiRoo> this thing gonna reverse short under 48..maybe?

<Brutus> good analysis KR

<KiwiRoo> tx.

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 709.00 «« paper »» 11:22

YM high

<startrader> would live 52.25-53.75 for a short. 11:24

<pat255> thks styar for the heads up..

<KiwiRoo> above 53 I'll say price would explode :P

again.... too many resistance at this area.. 51.50,52,53. 11:25

<szubaark> 4th push up, i see sellers jumping on like flies

<Nesi> Long ER2 @ 710.10 -> Add «« paper »»

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1352.25 11:26

<KiwiRoo> above 53 and they'll push for 60....

look at the DOM.. lol.

here come.. 11:27

25 % ???????????? 11:29

sorry.. wrong window..lol.

No Calvary yet, too bad. 11:32

<codehead> both the authorsszu--note potential mittens ghosts forming on YM, especially the 3 min

hm, the start of that line had some garbage on the line, sorry 11:33

<KiwiRoo> sup KN. :) 11:34

<KN-ES> Shorts ES @ 51

out 3/4 50 +1.00 11:36

<KiwiRoo> making some bucks already.. nice.

<KN-ES> hi KiwiRoo :)

<startrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1349.75 --> + 2.5 11:37

<szubaark> nice entry star

<pat255> vn star ...u guys have guts & great trdaers ..

<robert> wtg star

<startrader> ty 11:39

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1349.25 --> + 3

<KN-ES> out 3/5 49 +2.00 11:40

<startrader> holding 1 for be or lower.

<KN-ES> out 1/5 49 +2.00 11:44

s/L 51

<startrader> 52.50 was 62% of yesterdays h to todays l rth + swing high just after 2:30 yesterday+ foor pivot at 53.75= good short. 11:45

now we are in messy pa for awhile. 11:47

<KiwiRoo> lunch hour fight... 11:49

anyone using pitt squawk service?

<szubaark> didnt think would go to 1353 as yersturday was so Weak

<KiwiRoo> 53 is the price magnet level on my chart.. 11:50

<KN-ES> t/p around 45 11:52

<KiwiRoo> BRB.. leaving my trailer in for short.... target at 45.

t/p ?

target profit ?

<KN-ES> yes

<KiwiRoo> oh what coincidence.. lol. same number.

<KN-ES> its all about numbers :) 11:53

<KiwiRoo> actually i got 47, 46.75 as support 1st . :P

<KN-ES> yes, and most likely you will have a spike

and if not just get out by 51, no loss 11:54

<KiwiRoo> yep..anyway.. i'll let the market do what ever it wants to do.. i'm gonna take a Nap.. LOL. 11:55

<KN-ES> well with last con...... you just try push your luck

well with last con...... you just try to push your luck 11:56

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 12:13

<startrader> Long ES @ 1346.25 12:19

<codehead> ES exactly .382 retrace on that low, so far 12:21

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1346.25 --> 0 12:25

<KN-ES> out 1/5 44.75 ........ + 6.25 12:28

<robert> nice

<Brutus> Good trade KN

<KN-ES> thanks robert

thanks Brutus

<ripsboy> great trade KN.. 12:29

<KN-ES> thanks ripsboy

that was the last con/ out all 12:30

<codehead> ES got within 2 ticks of the .500 retrace, cash hours 12:31

<cwellsi> headed lower 12:34

<nqlove> is there a trendline tool for NT 12:36

<szubaark> Covered all Short ES at 1346.25 --> - 0.25 «« paper »» 12:37

bad managment of this trade, Ill just label it as " 12:38

lucky exit"

<KN-ES> short 44.75 12:46

sm

sz

out 1/2 43.75 +1.00 12:47

<codehead> YM and ES at .500 retrace on the day, gettign some fight here

<startrader> Long ES @ 1344 12:48

<KN-ES> out 1/4 43.50 +1.25 12:50

a/l 44.75

s/l 44.75

<startrader> Long ES @ 1342.50 12:52

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 706.0 «« paper »» 12:53

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 706.20 -> small size 12:55

1 only

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1344 --> + 1.5

<NihabaAshi> volatility contracting 12:56

WRB pt1 reached and it was shallow...only a 3 tick profit had I exited there. 12:59

:(

<Andy> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 706.5 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 13:01

<KN-ES> s/l hit 44.75 0.00

<Andy> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 706 --> 0 «« paper »» 13:02

:( 13:03

<Pepe> WRB pt2

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 707.30 --> + 1.1 13:04

<codehead> vegas possible here on YM 5 min

<Pepe> nice

<NihabaAshi> got more than my WRB pt1...caught a pt2 exit :) 13:05

<codehead> ES and YM both got within 2 ticks of .618 retrace on the day

<KN-ES> short 45.25 1 con 13:07

out 43 + 2.25 13:13

srt 44.75 13:16

1 con

<Brutus> http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={8d7f7 4d9-1135-4c4f-93bf-e233c3f0d176} 13:18

48 dead in tornadoes

<KN-ES> out 45.25 -.50 13:19

<Brutus> 02/06/2008 13:33 *DJ Plosser: Fed Can't Ignore Inflation During Slow Econ Growth 13:34

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 705.90 -> small size

Covered ER2 Short @ 705.20 --> + 0.7 13:37

now it picks up momentum after I cover :( 13:38

<KN-ES> long 41.75

1 con

<NihabaAshi> The train has left the station... 13:40

Those short...ticket please :)

I will try to catch the next departure. 13:41

<KN-ES> out 40.75 -1.00

out 40.75 13:46

long 40.75

7/8 out 41.75 + 1.00 13:50

s/l 40.75 13:51

t/p +/- 43 13:53

s/l hit 40.75 0.00 13:54

lng 39.75 13:55

1 con

<NihabaAshi> starting to look like a fade 13:56

* cwellsi covers ES 1339 +12, +7.25 13:57

<KN-ES> out 38.75 -1

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 702.30 -> small size

Exited ER2 Long @ 701.70 --> - 0.6 13:59

<KN-ES> Lng 36.50

1 con 14:00

<NihabaAshi> DAX back to back hammer lines

Long ER2 @ 701.70 -> small size 14:01

:( 14:02

* cwellsi buys ES 1337.5 14:03

<NihabaAshi> support is in...can ER2 exploit it

<Razor> what support ? 14:04

<KN-ES> 36.50 is a big support

<cwellsi> yes it sure is :)

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 701.90 --> + 0.2 14:05

<cwellsi> will see if it can hold today

<NihabaAshi> ER2 doesn't look too convinced.

<KN-ES> out 38.75 +2.25 14:06

with just one contract it wasnt a winning game at all 14:07

* cwellsi sells ES 1339.25 +1.75 14:09

<KN-ES> srt 38 14:10

2 con

out 1 at 37 +1.00 14:11

s/l 39

* cwellsi shorts ES 1338

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 701.3 «« paper »» 14:12

Exited all ER2 Long @ 700.6 --> - 0.7 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> support on ER2 violated and more hammer lines forming

* cwellsi covers ES 1334 +4 14:13

<KN-ES> out 33.25... + 4.75 14:14

LONG 33.25 14:15

<cwellsi> next support on SPX aound 1320

around

<KN-ES> OUT 7/8 AT 34.25 + 1.00

<Razor> KN-ES I assume you trade off of pure price with no indicators ?

<KN-ES> S/L 33 14:16

Razor . just volume at this moment

<Razor> thx

<KN-ES> u welcome 14:17

<cwellsi> sorry ... another support around 1326

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 700.5 «« paper »» 14:18

<KN-ES> S/L 33.25 b/e

<szubaark> came back and my quotes froze for last 40 minutes :((

<Andy> Exited all ER2 Long @ 699.6 --> - 0.9 «« paper »» 14:19

<KN-ES> s/l hit 33.25 0.00

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY)

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 699.80 -> small size

<startrader> Long ES @ 1333 14:20

<KN-ES> srt 33 14:21

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1332 --> - 1

<KN-ES> out 7/8 32.00 +1.00

s/l 34 14:22

t/p 27

<cwellsi> adv-dec went from +1400 to -220 14:24

<startrader> Long ES @ 1331.50

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 699.10 --> + 0.7

volatility contracting 14:25

I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon

<KN-ES> s/l hit 34 out 0.00

<NihabaAshi> oooops...

already occurring :)

<KN-ES> srt 34.00

1 con

<startrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1334.75 --> + 3.25 14:27

<KN-ES> out 35 -1

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1335.50 --> + 4 14:28

not enough volume to keep me in. 14:29

<NihabaAshi> sneaky little booger 14:31

won't chase ER2 this time...high risk of volatiliyt contracting on a retrace

* cwellsi shorts ES 1335.25 14:32

covers ES 1334 +1.25 14:35

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 699 «« paper »»

<cwellsi> chop here...no clear direction 14:36

consolidation...trade the break 14:37

<KN-ES> srt 36.50 14:38

2 con

out 37.50 -1 14:40

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1337.50

<Andy> Exited all ER2 Long @ 701.1 --> + 2.1 «« paper »» 14:42

<KN-ES> srt 36.50

<startrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1336.50 --> + 1 14:43

<Nesi> *DJ Fed's Plosser: Chances Of US Recession Have Risen 14:45

(Dow Jones 02/06 14:45:14)

<KN-ES> out 38 -1.50 14:46

* cwellsi shorts ES 1338.5 14:47

<startrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1337 --> + 0.5 14:48

got some more off at 38.50 and out of everything. 14:49

* cwellsi covers ES 1337 +1.5 14:50

<codehead> interesting: 12252 was the previous lod that got broken down on that dump to lod, so 12250 was resistance on getting it to pop back to green--12249 is exactly .500 of the range form lod to top of that pop 14:53

<NihabaAshi> volatility contracting

<codehead> so a pretty key area, 12250

low of that move 12251, accordingly--it's now a bit of a support again 14:54

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 701.70 -> small size 14:55

1 only

<startrader> Shorts ES @ 1339.25 14:56

* cwellsi shorts ES 1339

<KiwiRoo> ... 14:57

<codehead> don't forget, CSCO tonight 14:58

<KiwiRoo> market tanked hard today.... .

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 702.20 --> + 0.5

<startrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1337.75 --> + 1.5

<NihabaAshi> Gold and Oil no longer providing support

<startrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1336.75 --> + 2.5 14:59

holding 1 and could push higher. 15:00

* cwellsi covers ES 1337 +2

<codehead> now, H8 is march contract, right? i dont' understand why no premium in it

trading in lock-step with dow

(YM)

<cwellsi> the spread includes interest rates ans since interest rates have been reduced substancially so has the spread 15:01

<codehead> ic

<cwellsi> ans=and

<codehead> but there is none :-?

<startrader> libor and time to expiration, when rates drop premium so does prem

<codehead> 0-2 ticks 15:02

<cwellsi> spx/es same...

<codehead> yeah

<startrader> I don't even watch fair value, but if it is trading under their is a discount for a reason, big arb players. 15:03

<cwellsi> premium, interest rates and dividends+ spread

=

<KiwiRoo> Nice stop placement u had going earlier.. KN.. (51)... the market pops up to take me out at 50.50 be4 dumping off to the target.... unfair.. rofl.

<codehead> about a year ago, Ym was trading under so i went long... then they fixed the problem with dow computers and it dropped like a rock to catch up with futs, but futs dropped like a rock cuz dow was dropping... that was last feb's big dump day--i got dinged pretty good 15:05

<cwellsi> that's why the big boys use computers for arbs :))

<codehead> ic

<KiwiRoo> bullies... 15:06

small sym triangle on ES. 15:07

<codehead> Ym broke .382 retrace off the bottom by 9 ticks, which would lead one to believe it should try 12305 next and see how it does there 15:08

<cwellsi> seems no one wants to make a move here 15:09

last half hour will be telling

<codehead> yeah, CSCO could be a market mover tomorrow 15:10

<cwellsi> see what JC has in store for us...always exciting to watch 15:11

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 700.60 -> small size 15:12

3 tick chaser

<startrader> Long ES @ 1336.50 15:13

1 only, something new.

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 701.50 --> - 0.9 15:14

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 701.50

* cwellsi shorts ES 1337.5

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1335 --> - 1.5

<NihabaAshi> pin ball machine and sucker punched :( 15:15

<startrader> ha!

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 699.60 --> - 1.9

another support area 15:16

* cwellsi covers ES 1330.5 +7

<startrader> Long ES @ 1330.75

<cwellsi> that was fast :)

<startrader> Long ES @ 1329.75 15:17

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 698.00 -> small size

<startrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1332 --> + 2.25 15:18

<NihabaAshi> Gold, Oik and DAX trying hard to find some support

<startrader> Exited 1/4 ES Long @ 1333 --> + 3.25 15:20

holding 1.

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 697.90 --> + 0.1 15:21

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 698 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 698.30 -> small size 15:22

tough trade with the pin ball machine price action 15:23

* cwellsi covers ER from last week 697.4 - > +31.9, +30.3, +30.9, +14, +6.5, +2.1, -1.8, -.8, +.5, -3.3

<KiwiRoo> cracy stuff.

<Nesi> WOW

<NihabaAshi> volatility contracting 15:24

Covered ER2 Short @ 699.30 --> - 1 15:25

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 699.30

pin ball machine

<startrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 2 --> - 1327.75

<NihabaAshi> I have only 1 ball in play :)

<startrader> that was 1334.25 15:26

<NihabaAshi> This thing can easily retrace and be -1 point against me in a matter of a few seconds :(

Exited ER2 Long @ 699.60 --> + 0.3 15:28

<Andy> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 699.9 --> + 1.9 «« paper »»

<startrader> 15 and 60 min closes look good but end of day, don't buy it. 15:29

<cwellsi> CME got crushed today

<Nesi> =DJ OPTIONS REPORT:Justice Dept Shake-Up Spurs CME, Nymex Volume 15:30

(Dow Jones 02/06 15:30:00)

NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--A potential shake-up in the financial-futures

exchanges by the Justice Department has traders snapping up positions in CME

Group Inc. and Nymex Holdings Inc.

The department is calling for an end to futures exchanges owning or

controlling the business of "clearing," or the trade processing in which

third parties help guarantee payments on each transaction. The call for

reform could jeopardize the potential merger between CME and Nymex.

contracting vol again 15:31

* cwellsi shorts ER 698.8 15:32

covers ER 697. +1.4 15:34

<startrader> Long ES @ 1331

<cwellsi> 697.4

* cwellsi shorts ES 1331.5 15:35

covers ES 1329.5 +2

<startrader> Long ES @ 1329.50 -> Add 15:36

<cwellsi> CME broke 500

<startrader> Long ES @ 1328.50 -> Add 15:39

* cwellsi buys ER 694.1

<startrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1331.50 --> + 3

WRB Analysis

Learn More

* cwellsi sells ER 694.1 +2 15:40

<cwellsi> 694.1

696.1 sorry

<startrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1330.25 --> - 0.75 15:41

Long ES @ 1328.50

cmon guy's hit the number and let's go.

* cwellsi shorts ER 696 15:42

<startrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1330.25 --> + 1.75

* cwellsi covers ER 694.9 +1.1 15:44

shorts ES 1329 15:45

<startrader> Long ES @ 1328.25

* cwellsi covers ES 1328.5 +.5 15:46

<startrader> Long ES @ 1327.75

<Brutus> 1327.75 is 50% retrace from 1255.50 to 1400. 15:47

<Nesi> Lehman CFO: No Need For Equity From Outside Sources >LEH

(Dow Jones 02/06 15:47:20)

<cwellsi> no panic selling although yesterday was a 90%+ down day 15:50

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1329 --> + 1.25

* cwellsi shorts ER 694.1

<cwellsi> lol spoke too soon on ES haha 15:51

<startrader> charts froze completely on the spike. they are going to push it down a bit looks like. eod crap.

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 693.80 -> small size

* cwellsi covers ER 693 +1.1 15:52

<startrader> Long ES @ 1326 15:53

<cwellsi> i'm sensing some panic here

<NihabaAshi> volatility contracting 15:54

<Brutus> Thursday, February 7, 2008 EST

0700 UK Feb BOE interest rate decision

0745 EU ECB interest rate decision

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 693.50 --> + 0.3 15:55

geeesh

<Andy> Long ER2 @ 693.4 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 693.4 «« paper »»

<codehead> YM 12173 is .500 retrace from rate cut low to peak of bounce 15:56

<Andy> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 697.9 --> + 4.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 693.60 -> small size 15:57

<Andy> forget that above

* cwellsi shorts ER 693.4

<NihabaAshi> be careful...we are in that 4pm est rush hour traffic zone

<Andy> computer/screen problems

<codehead> 6 ticks away from the .500 retrace 15:58

getting a little support

* cwellsi covers ER 691.7 +1.7

<cwellsi> think i'm done...thanks guys 15:59

<codehead> nice

<startrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1327 --> + 1

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 692.90 --> + 0.7 16:00

Bargain hunters showed up :(

<startrader> on the close.

<KiwiRoo> paper bidding big.

<NihabaAshi> Thought they would be too scared to show their face :(

<Brutus> ============ U.S. MARKETS ACTION ===========

DJIA down 73.24 points to 12189.78

NASDAQ down 30.98 points to 2278.59

S&P 500 down 11.60 points to 1325.08

10-year T-note down 9/32 at 105 9/32 yield 3.603

NYMEX Spot Crude down $1.32 at $87.09/bbl at close

Dollar/Euro down 0.0028 at 1.4617

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tda meritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={81477 012-e6a2-49ed-80e1-b48ad6414be6} 16:01

<cwellsi> also could be just short covering

<codehead> dang, had a hunch we'd get the cash-close bounce again

<Razor> gn

<NihabaAshi> Great volatility today...can't complain.

<KiwiRoo> merrill bought about 500 big contracts at the close . 16:02

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all tomorrow.

<KiwiRoo> c ya..

<cwellsi> JC will show us the way ...lol

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<KiwiRoo> Cramer?

<cwellsi> john chambers

ceo csco 16:03

<Trader_To> wwjc do

<KiwiRoo> oh thoughtu meant. Jim Cramer.... not that fool. rofl.

<cwellsi> lolol

CSCO selling 16:05

SPX hit the 1326 # 16:14

<codehead> CSCO trding even on the day after headfake 16:16

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for traders and intermarket analysis of Emini Futures (EMD, ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, XLE, QQQQ, SPY) 16:22

<Brutus> gn all 16:23

<cwellsi> lol, JC used the "cautious" word 17:01

<ItalianSharp> WOW, more selling going on 17:14

YM just dropped 100 pts in 30mins...unreal

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Feb 06 18:34:15 2008 18:34

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