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#FuturesTrades May 15th Tuesday 2007 Trade Log

Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today	Month	Year
+14.50	+144.10	+1275.30
$1,450	$14,410	$127,530

click on image to view actual size

Current Performance Record

Intermarket Analysis

Profit/Loss Statement

Today's WRB Analysis: Parabolic price movement is tough on traders as in that some will freeze and take big losses while others will average down into the losing position.

The parabolic price movement between 0952am - 1020am est was almost shocking to some of the traders I knew had short positions. It reminded me of a recent news story about ipods being dangerous for those with heart pacemakers.

This made me think about stress caused by all those White WRBs in that parabolic price action for all those traders with short positions.

In fact, I counted three pulsating White WRBs during that fast price rise that would concern any trader.

Yet, the shorts got their revenge soon after 1245pm est via a bigger price decline in comparison the early morning price rise.

As shown in the chat log below, I caught one nice trade in the strong a.m. price action and one nice trade in the strong p.m. price action that reached at least a WRB profit target 2 on both trades.

General Strategy Info: Currently, I'm exclusively trading the Russell 2000 Emini ER2 futures even though my strategies are applicable and profitable on all the trading instruments listed towards the bottom of this webpage along with my past trade journals showing consistent profits in other trading instruments prior to exclusively trading Emini Futures ER2.

In addition, I use a rule based (no subjectivity) methodology via my best strategies involving WRB Analysis. However, there are other key variables integrated with WRB Analysis that involves simple concepts of intermarket analysis, market seasonal tendencies, volatility analysis, support/resistance zones and position size management along with custom Japanese Candlestick patterns to complete my trading plan that results in consistent profits.

With that said, today's trade posting chat log is below and it contains all my trades that were posted in realtime along with the trades of other members of #FuturesTrades. Also, I use the user name NihabaAshi in the below trade posting chat log.

Further, if you want the instructions for gaining access to our free #FuturesTrades chat room...click here.

#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info for day traders, swing traders and position traders...click here.

Session Start: Tue May 15 09:23:34 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:23

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<jperl> My ER2 trading chart for today with VWAP pivots.... 09:28

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-15/JP ERL_014.png

<pat255> gm all

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 824.8 «« paper »» 09:33

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 825.00 -> small size 09:35

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 825 -> Add «« paper »»

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Trading Strategies -> These strategies, from entry to exit, will exploit inefficiencies in the price action of your trading instrument for profits in the following trading instruments via WRB Analysis: Emini Index Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Index Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Index Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Energy Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM), Forex Currencies (EurUsd, EurYen, UsdCdn), Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, OIH, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, XLE) and Hang Seng Index Futures (HSI)

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1512.50

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 824.10 --> - 0.9 09:36

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 824.10

Shorts ER2 @ 823.70 -> Add

<Brutus> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 823.1 --> + 1.9 «« paper »» 09:37

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1510.50 --> + 2

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 822.90 --> + 0.8

<Brutus> Covered 1/4 ER2 Short @ 822.8 --> + 2 «« paper »» 09:38

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 824.00 --> + 0.1 09:42

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1511.50 -> Add 09:43

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 823.9 -> Add «« paper »»

<szubaark> Shorts NQ @ 1892.25 «« paper »» 09:44

<RussellDaytrade> I guess you guys are expecting some more downside today...make that a table for four 09:45

<eminitrader> table for 4 ?

<Brutus> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 822.3 --> + 1.6 «« paper »» 09:46

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 822.50 -> medium size

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1509.50 --> + 2

<jperl> yesterdays VWAP -2nd STdDev @ 821.32 09:47

<Brutus> Covered 1/4 ER2 Short @ 821.8 --> + 3 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1889.50 --> + 2.75 «« paper »»

<Brutus> Covered all ER2 Short @ 822 --> + 2.8 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> table for 4 refers to me also thinking it goes lower

<eminitrader> :)

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 821.60 --> + 0.9

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1508 --> + 4.5 09:50

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 819.90 --> + 2.6

<eminitrader> holding 3

<NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract

<eminitrader> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1512.50 09:51

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 821.6 «« paper »» 09:56

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 822.55 09:57

peak volume 823.50

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 821.80 --> + 0.7

<Brutus> Covered all ER2 Short @ 821.8 --> - 0.2 «« paper »»

Shorts ER2 @ 823.2 «« paper »» 09:59

<kei> long es @10.50 10:00

<Brutus> Covered all ER2 Short @ 823.5 --> - 0.3 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1511.25

2add of 2

<kei> cover es @ 11.5 10:02

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 823.90 -> small size

2 contracts only

<jperl> quick morning....done for now....trades here... 10:03

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-15/JP ERL_015.png

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1512.50 --> - 1.25

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 825.60 --> + 1.7

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 827.3 «« paper »» 10:04

<ItalianSharp> did any news come out at 10am to produce this volatility? 10:05

my calendar says nothing... 10:06

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 828.3 --> - 1 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> just buying i guess

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 829.10 --> + 5.2

<pat255> vn niha...

never thot it will go back up like that ...

<eminitrader> cool niha :)

<NihabaAshi> That's one hell of a bounce off the lows.

<pat255> yes .. 10:07

<ItalianSharp> this is what i'm getting from my live news service:

May IBD/TIPP economic optimism index is 48.0 vs. exp. 44.0 and prior 45.5

is that about the US economy?

jeees...these markets dont wanna hear about going down...looks like november and december, when every dip is a good excuse to buy...:) 10:09

<NihabaAshi> Amazing that I missed the initial Long signal around 0954am est @ 821.10 in comparison to my late entry around 1002am est @ 823.90

The price reaction is definetly related to the 0830am est report. 10:10

Also, is FED Chairman Bernanke still speaking ??? 10:11

<ItalianSharp> niha, the 8.30am report was below expectations...and still mkts going up...

<NihabaAshi> The volatility isn't high enough to merit a price move like that bounce off the lows. 10:16

In fact, the market has been putting in some very nice price moves for a week or so on very low volatility. 10:17

<les> Long ER2 @ 829.8 10:19

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1517 «« paper »» 10:31

exit stop set ES @ 1516 «« paper »»

Exited ES Long @ 1516 --> - 1 «« paper »» 10:32

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 829.7 --> - 0.1 10:37

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1515.50 10:42

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1516.75 «« paper »» 10:47

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1516.50 --> + 1 10:48

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1516.75 «« paper »» 10:49

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1515.75 --> + 1 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1515.50 --> 0 10:50

Long ES @ 1516 10:52

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1516.75 --> 0 «« paper »»

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<ItalianSharp> anyone knows why the dollar is getting hammered again?

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1514.75 «« paper »» 10:57

exit stop set ES @ 1513.75 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1514 -> Add

<Brutus> Exited ES Long @ 1513.75 --> - 1 «« paper »» 10:58

<RussellDaytrade> well, that was a hell of a scenic detour down the crimson highway, back in the black again 10:59

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1512.50 -> Add 11:00

Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1513.50 --> + 1 11:02

Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1514 --> - 2 11:03

thats b/e on 1 lot

<NihabaAshi> If Forex UsdCdn keeps on performing poorly... 11:04

<RussellDaytrade> I will refer to the last time I posted the 'hangtime' effect, and for anyone that may recall, how I also expected that the last time it occured, the duration of it would beigin to be less. well the last time, about a week and a half or so ago, it wasn't, but today it was and is. while this may seem to be a minor shift, alomost imperceptible, it is nonetheless present, and detectable... 11:05

<NihabaAshi> I'll soon be switching from doing everything in U.S. currency to doing it in Canadian currency considering I have bank accounts in both countries.

<RussellDaytrade> slowly, the dynamics are altering, the upward juice is being extracted. 11:06

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 826.17

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1513 -> Add 11:07

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1513.25 «« paper »» 11:08

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1512 -> Add 11:11

<Brutus> Exited ES Long @ 1512.5 --> - 0.75 «« paper »»

<pat255> exit all es -2 11:13

<les> Long ER2 @ 825.5 11:14

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1513.50 --> + 1.5 11:15

<Brutus> ES stopped at the 0.61 retrace 11:17

<eminitrader> yep exactly to the tick

was surprised u had ur stop there

<Brutus> Wasnt paying attention to it :( 11:18

Was trying some paper scalps on another setup

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1514.50 --> - 1.5 11:19

<les> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 827.1 --> + 1.6

* Litman is now known as Littman 11:28

WRB Analysis

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<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1516 --> 0 11:39

holding 3

<les> exit stop raised ER2 @ 825.8

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1517.50 --> + 1.5 11:40

<les> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 828.6 --> + 3.1 11:41

<pat255> vn guys ... 11:42

<eminitrader> thx pat

<les> Long ER2 @ 829 11:43

thx

<jperl> ER2 peak volume 829.20 11:45

<les> Exited all ER2 Long @ 829.4 --> + 0.4 11:51

Shorts ER2 @ 828.4 11:53

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:04

<les> Covered all ER2 Short @ 827.6 --> + 0.8 12:06

* les is now known as lesAway

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 12:14

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1516.75 12:18

<pat255> c u all ater ty all.. 12:22

<eminitrader> later pat

<pat255> later em & others

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1519.25 --> + 2.5 12:42

<Brutus> nice entry e

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1516.75 --> 0 12:46

thx b

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 827.50 -> small size 12:48

1 contract only

Covered ER2 Short @ 825.40 --> + 2.1 12:57

<Brutus> May Housing Market Index released on 5/15 at 1:00 PM :theflyonthewall 12:59

<NihabaAshi> I wasn't sure how much of an impact that economic report will have... 13:00

<Brutus> not much on ER

<NihabaAshi> So I decided to hold until a WRB formed near that release time.

Well, with econ reports that price action can start as early as 15mins prior to a release. 13:01

Reason why we need to be alert of any volatility changes "prior" to a economic report release. 13:02

I saw the volatility change around 1247pm est (something was going up) in relationship to that 1pm est report. 13:03

Price action now at a WRB pt3 level in reaction to the report. 13:04

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1514.75

<NihabaAshi> Key s/r zone between 823.30 - 822.00 13:06

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1516.75 --> + 2 13:12

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:13

<karsat> nice bounce in ER2 13:15

<RussellDaytrade> Niha, thanks for answering my question late yesterday...I had already logged off when you had, but saw it later last night...I am paying attention to how I frame questions, if you recall, about a week ago, I posted a question in frustration, and it was phrased thusly. afterwards, it occurde to me that a much more productive manner to phrase the question, is 'how do I improve', or, 'how can i improve, in this area', etc... 13:34

<eminitrader> Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1515.75 --> + 1

<RussellDaytrade> which led to last nights question, 'how can I stay in my directional trades longer? 13:35

I think by posing the questions in the proper maner, the answers will come. :) 13:36

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1514.75 13:41

Exited all ES Long @ 1514.25 --> - 0.5 13:43

<codehead> dam, 35 points and still going 13:47

oops wrong room

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1511.75 13:48

-X- The BANNER Frequency has been set to 120:minutes 13:49

-X- The BANNER Frequency has been set to 120:minutes 13:51

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1513.75 --> + 2 13:53

Long ES @ 1511.75 -> Add 13:54

Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1513.25 --> + 1.5 13:56

<Brutus> Could be new highs from here e 13:57

<eminitrader> i dont think so ...change of trend confirmed ...sld see new lows 13:58

<Brutus> OK ic, Im looking for a few tests of this level then 1400 it may move to the upside 13:59

mean 1430 14:00

<eminitrader> well we never know...but the flow as of now has a low probability of new highs but a high probability of new lows

<RussellDaytrade> feels lower than higher..all them string of days to the upside may have lulled many into a false sense of more upside. 14:02

feels like a sell the rallies type of mkt

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1513.75 --> + 2 14:07

Exited ES Long @ 1512.75 --> + 1 14:12

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1512.75

<Brutus> Some nasdaq stocks look very weak

question is - is the selling about to be done? 14:13

<eminitrader> just started :)

i hope 14:14

<RussellDaytrade> ditto

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1512.75 --> 0

not good entry ...

<RussellDaytrade> contrary to popular opinion, the mkt can go down more than one day in a row! 14:15

<eminitrader> nq did not confirm it ...will prolly have one more move to stop the momemtum shorts

Shorts ES @ 1512.25 14:17

Covered all ES Short @ 1511.75 --> + 0.5 14:25

my original entry was to be on a reversal @ around 1515.50 14:26

looks like mrkts trying to ease the selling presuure ..so hopefully will seea better entry 14:28

if not ..had a very good dya compared to the last 10 days or so ...no regrets on missing this short 14:29

looks like i missed the move :(( 14:38

did anyone catch this move ...? 14:46

<Chilly> I was short at 1517 and bailed all at 1514.75 ... sigh ... it's the story of my trading life :) 14:48

<ItalianSharp> wow, they are selling heavy 14:49

<Brutus> Yes e.....

<eminitrader> well by then the mrkt had not confirmed its downmove...so u did good with taking some off

<Brutus> I tried to catch the the bottom :))

<eminitrader> u mean long? 14:50

<Chilly> that was my thinking E .. so I took what the market gave me at the time

<Brutus> Just JK, one ER long for couple ticks pft

<eminitrader> k B

<RussellDaytrade> just a little bit of it...did a ss at 820.8, in anticiapation of a break...a break I usually miis since my prefernce is to sell into ralies. covered at 818

<eminitrader> good one RD 14:51

<RussellDaytrade> thank you Sir. may I have another?!

<eminitrader> i was scaling in my entries all day...

<Brutus> Did not expect new highs only to be sold off so heavily, was also thinking a possible trend day due to options exp week 14:52

<eminitrader> when i recognized the change in trend i was so excited ...that i took a ct expecting a bounce of the major suppbut failed to scale in on my reverse ... 14:53

mby the time i did it was an area where i was not comfortable given my entry was supposed to be more than 2 pts from there... 14:54

was hoping for a bounce back ...but shit happens...but this cld have been the icing on the cake ..for me today

<ItalianSharp> emini, when did trend change according to your analysis? 14:55

<eminitrader> possible change @ around 1 50 est confirmed @ 1:56 14:57

<RussellDaytrade> well, sometimes in these kinds of setups, the mkts will have a false gap up open, providing another opportunity to sell...I have an up of 821.78, and a second up 826.43...the first could easily fulfill today 15:01

<eminitrader> u mean for tommorow 15:02

<RussellDaytrade> no, for today, but the higher t is too far away, in my opnion, to fulfill this late in the day, and with the mkt weakening (as I percieve it) 15:03

<eminitrader> k thx

<jperl> I'm done for the day....P/L here 15:10

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-15/JP ERL_016.png

That last trade group starting at 816.40 required a scale in to get a graceful exit 15:11

<RussellDaytrade> here's another question. while I do not expect an answer, certainly answers from anyone here are welcome..I am asking moire from the standpoint of 'thinking out loud', and training myself to ask questions in a manner that helps me to find answers, phrased such that it is implied that 1) there are answers, and 2) that I can and will find them... 15:18

how can I remain aggessively postured thru-out the entire trading day, and continue to trade actively into the afternoon sessions, when opportunity still abounds? 15:19

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 817.50 -> small size 15:27

2 contracts 15:28

<RussellDaytrade> bounces seem to be becoming more lackluster, relative to the action of the past month or so 15:30

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 816.20 -> Add 15:31

Ooops... 15:32

That's suppose to show 817.20

I'll correct it n the exit.

<werner> gn all 15:34

<NihabaAshi> Volatility declining...I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon...hopefully in the direction of my trade.

Exit 1/3 ER2 Long @ 817.60 -> +0.40 15:35

Exit 1/3 ER2 Long @ 817.80 -> +0.30 15:39

Exit 1/3 ER2 Long @ 817.90 -> +0.40 15:40

I'm done for the day. 15:42

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:55

<NihabaAshi_away> Take care all and see all tomorrow. 16:28

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue May 15 16:28:31 2007

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In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about any of the above commentary, specific trades et cetera...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.