Post subject: April 30th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +13.80
Posted: Sat May 01, 2010 8:41 pm
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm Posts: 2831 Location: Canada
Trade Journal By M.A. Perry Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.
Today's results are 15 wins : 7 losses : 4 breakevens. A very high number of trades today but it wasn't overtrading considering all were valid trades. Simply, I only consider overtrading when I take trades that are not part of the methodology. However, the reason for the high number of trades was that it took me awhile to understand the price action. Further, when I did understand the price action, I wanted to exploit that understanding even knowingly that it will increase my number of trades above the average. Unfortunately I did have an usual number of breakeven trades. In fact, at one point I had 3 consecutive breakeven trades and the last time that happen was back in the late 90's.
Trading Tip: If you're going to use technical analysis...don't use it alone nor make it the most important part of your trading plan.
FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Friday after reports that Goldman Sachs is facing a criminal probe sparked analyst downgrades and a selloff in the financial sector. Worries about Greece's lingering debt problems also weighed.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 159 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 index (SPX) lost 20 points, or 1.7%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 51 points or 2%.
Stocks had seesawed in the early going but soon turned lower after ratings agency Standard & Poor's downgraded Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) following reports it is the target of a criminal investigation by federal prosecutors.
S&P downgraded the stock to "sell." Bank of America/Merrill Lynch also downgraded it to "neutral" from "buy" before the start of trading. Goldman shares fell 10%.
A number of financial shares slipped, including JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) and Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) sector index lost 1.4%.
But the declines were broad based, with all 30 Dow shares retreating. In addition to the financial components, other big losers included Boeing (BA, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), McDonald's (MCD, Fortune 500) and Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500).
The stock selling propelled the CBOE Volatility (VIX) index by almost 20%. Seen as the investor fear gauge, the VIX spiked to just short of the two-month highs it touched earlier in the week. Fed: Economy improving
Strong quarterly profit reports propelled markets Thursday, with the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining over 1% each. But investors were cautious Friday at the end of a choppy week in which worries that Greece might default on its debt sent the major indexes tumbling by more than 2% on Tuesday.
Stocks finished April with a monthly gain, but the Dow broke its 8-week winning streak, its longest up stretch in 6 years. The Nasdaq also broke its 8-week up streak. The S&P 500 had risen in 7 of the last 8 weeks.
GDP: The economy grew at a 3.2% annual rate in the first quarter, the Commerce Department reported Friday. It was short of the 3.3% economists were predicting, according to a Briefing.com survey, but was still the third quarter in a row that U.S. gross domestic product grew.
GDP rose at a 5.6% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2009.
Sentiment and manufacturing: The University of Michigan's final reading on April consumer sentiment was revised up to 72.2 from 69.5, beating forecasts for a revision to 71.
The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, rose to 63.8 in April from 58.8 in March, versus forecasts for a rise to 59.9.
Company news: Continental (CAL, Fortune 500) and UAL Corp.'s (UAUA, Fortune 500) United Airlines are in late-stage negotiations to merge, according to reports, with a deal expected as soon as this weekend. Continental shares fell 1.5% and UAL shares rose 0.6%.
Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500) was little changed after reporting quarterly sales and earnings that rose from a year earlier and topped forecasts.
With 67% of the S&P 500 having reported results, earnings are on track to have grown 53% from a year earlier and revenues 11%, according to the latest info from tracker Thomson Reuters.
World markets: In overseas trading, European markets fell, with France's CAC 40 down 0.6%, Germany's DAX down 0.2% and London's FTSE down 1.2%.
Asian markets fell, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index down 1.5% and Japan's Nikkei down 2.6%.
The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained versus the yen.
U.S. light crude oil for June delivery settled up 98 cents to $86.15 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for June delivery rose $11.90 to settle at $1,180.70 per ounce.
Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.66% from 3.73% Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
4:35 pm : Stiff selling on Friday resulted in the stock market's worst weekly loss since January and marked a weak finish to April. Still, the stock market was able to book its third straight monthly gain.
The early tone of trade tepid as market participants made little response news that the first quarter GDP hit an annualized rate of 3.2%. The headline number was essentially on par with the 3.3% increase that had been widely expected, but more pleasing was that personal consumption increased 3.6%, which was stronger than the 3.3% increase that had been widely anticipated.
The failure of the report to bring buyers into trade eventually gave way to widespread weakness. The selling effort was initially focused on financial plays and tech plays.
Financials fell 2.5% as investment banks dropped 6.3% amid news that Goldman Sachs (GS 145.20, -15.04) will be part of a federal criminal probe and tech stocks tumbled 2.2% as semiconductor names fell 4.5%.
Such steep losses among the two sectors, which combine to make up some 35% of the S&P 500 market weight, imbued the broader market, such that by the close declining issues outnumbered advancers by nearly 7-to-1 in the broader market.
Volatility spiked as a result of the stiff selling effort. In turn, the Volatility Index, often dubbed the "fear gauge," spiraled nearly 20% higher.
Utilities stocks were able to gain, though. The sector settled 0.5% higher as many participants sought the sector's relative safety and the support of the sector's plus-4% dividend yield, based on current prices.
Gold also gained as a result of the increased volatility and weakness in the equity market. The yellow metal settled 1.0% higher to $1180.70 per ounce, a 2010 closing high. That actually helped gold stocks in the face broader market weakness.
Conviction among gold buyers was strong enough to disregard an upturn by the dollar against competing currencies. The greenback closed with a slight loss after it had turned up from a loss of 0.5% amid a stronger euro, which benefited from further contraction in the bond yields of Greece and Portugal.
The dollar still finished the week with a 0.6% gain, which puts it up 0.5% for the month and up some 5% for the year. As for the S&P 500, it fell 2.5% this week, but it still managed to close April with a 1.1% gain. The stock market is still up more than 6% year-to-date and less than 3% off of its 52-week high.
3:30 pm : A sharp increase in volatility and widespread weakness among stocks sent many market participants into gold this session. That drove the yellow metal 1.0% higher to $1180.70 per ounce, a 2010 closing high.
Silver was also up, but not quite as strong. The precious metal settled pit trade at $18.64 per ounce, up 0.3%.
Oil garnered considerable support of its own. As such, crude prices climbed 1.2% to $86.15 per barrel.
Natural gas extended its slide from the prior session. The steady selling pressure sent contract prices 1.7% lower to $3.91 per MMBtu. DJ30 -108.45 NASDAQ -37.34 SP500 -15.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 669/2.13 bln/2004 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 862/982 mln/2165
3:00 pm : Stocks have fallen another leg lower to trade at fresh session lows as they head into the final hour of trade. The S&P 500 now stands just above 1190. At its weekly low, the S&P 500 traded only slightly above the 1180 line.
With stocks at their session lows, volatility is near its session high as the Volatility Index, oftend dubbed the "fear guage," spikes almost 15%. DJ30 -104.07 NASDAQ -38.22 SP500 -15.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 673/1.93 bln/1969 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 868/885 mln/2135
2:30 pm : The pace of trade has slowed considerably. That has made for rather lackluster action.
Broad-based losses persist. Stocks are less than 2% off of their 52-week highs, which were set earlier this week.
As things currently stand, the stock market is on pace for a weekly loss of 1.8%. That would make for only its second weekly loss in nine weeks. However, a weekly loss of 1.8% would be the worst weekly slide since January. DJ30 -82.53 NASDAQ -32.93 SP500 -11.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 745/1.78 bln/1900 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 950/810 mln/2033
2:00 pm : Stocks have pulled up a few points from their session lows, but losses remain broad based as seven of the 10 major sectors remain in the red. Consumer staples (+0.1%), telecom (+0.2%), and utilities (+0.9%), all traditionally defensive oriented, make up the only sectors to sport gains.
Trading volume remains strong, but it isn't quite as robust as what it was during the past few sessions, when the NYSE saw some of the highest volumes of a non-options expiration session this year. DJ30 -81.09 NASDAQ -33.47 SP500 -11.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 738/1.66 bln/1892 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 912/750 mln/2067
1:30 pm : The stock market is stuck near its session low. Weakness remains widespread as declining issues outnumber advancers by 4-to-1.
Volatility has spiked amid the selling pressure. In turn, the Volatility Index is up 12.5% at the moment. DJ30 -83.28 NASDAQ -293.72 SP500 -11.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 767/1.53 bln/1849 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 914/695 mln/2053
1:00 pm : Despite a solid first quarter GDP report, weakness among financial and tech issues has intensified and bled into the broader market, which is mired near session lows.
Market participants were generally unmoved by the advance first quarter GDP report, which indicated that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2% from January to March. Though that was slightly less than the 3.3% increase that had been expected, the report featured a stronger-than-expected increase of 3.6% in personal consumption.
Following the upbeat first quarter consumption numbers, the University of Michigan released its final Consumer Confidence Index for April. It came in at 72.2, which was stronger than expected.
While the data has failed to attract buyers, sellers have stepped up their efforts against Goldman Sachs (GS 145.41, -14.83) amid word that the firm will be examined in a federal criminal probe. The news has sent shares of GS to a new multimonth low. Its slide has triggered selling in the rest of the sector, which is now down 2.2%.
Tech is also down sharply. The sector currently contends with a 1.9% loss as large-cap tech plays come under pressure. Semiconductor stocks are especially weak, though; they are down 4.1%, according to the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index.
With tech and financials, the two heaviest sectors by market weight, under so much pressure, the stock market has fallen sharply and now trades at a fresh session low.
An improved dollar has added to the stock market's weakness. The Dollar Index had been down as much as 0.5% as the euro benefited from further contraction in the bond yields of Greece and Portugal, but the greenback is now flat.
Despite the greenback's upturn, gold has held on to a strong gain. The yellow metal is currently up 0.9% to $1179 per ounce. That has helped shares of precious metals stocks in the face of broader market weakness. DJ30 -93.71 NASDAQ -33.70 SP500 -12.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 759/1.39 bln/1851 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 881/640 mln/2069
12:30 pm : Stocks have rolled over in recent trade. The pressure has put stocks at fresh session lows.
Telecom and utilities have held up well against the slide, though. They sport respective gains of 0.4% and 0.9%. The two represent the worst performing sectors this year; year-to-date they are down 5.9% and 1.9%, respectively. Their failure to stage gains has kept their yields robust, however. The telecom sector sports a 5.8% dividend yield at current stock prices, while the utilities sector sports a 4.4% dividiend yield at current stock prices.
Support for Treasuries has increased with the market's recent move lower. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up 17 ticks and its yield now stands just above 3.65%. DJ30 -73.46 NASDAQ -27.14 SP500 -10.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 879/1.25 bln/1705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1034/575 mln/1889
12:00 pm : The Dollar Index continues to make its way up from its morning low, which saw it trade with a 0.5% loss. It is now down just 0.1% for the session.
Despite the greenback's upturn, precious metals continue to trade with strength. More specifically, gold and silver prices are both up 1.0% to $1180.50 per ounce and $18.73 per ounce, respectively. The higher prices have helped underpin a strong gain for shares of Newmont Mining (NEM 56.68, +0.88), Yamana Gold (AUY 11.07, +0.29), and Barrick Gold (ABX 44.36, +1.49), despite lackluster action in the broader market. DJ30 -9.60 NASDAQ -11.74 SP500 -3.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1004/1.08 bln/1558 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1249/504 mln/1649
11:30 am : The Nasdaq 100 is down 0.8% at the moment -- that's more than double the loss of the broader market and four times the size of the Dow's loss. Its weakness is primarily the result of losses among Apple (AAPL 266.32, -2.32), Intel (INTC 23.11, -0.38), and Microsoft (MSFT 30.81, -0.19), among other large-cap tech issues.
Meanwhile, the broader market continues to chop along with a moderate loss. Its decliners currently outnumber its advancing issues by less than 2-to-1. Tech, the largest sector by market weight, is a primary source of weakness within the broader market as well. The tech sector is down 0.9% at the moment. DJ30 -8.50 NASDAQ -12.13 SP500 -4.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 967/990 mln/1564 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1188/460 mln/1699
11:00 am : Stocks have trimmed their losses after regaining support following the S&P 500's dip below the 1200 line.
Financials continue to hamper the broader market, though. The sector is down 0.9% at the moment. Goldman Sachs (GS 147.10, -13.14) is a primary source of weakness in the sector; the stock is now at a new multimonth low.
Utilities are strongest this session. The sector is currently up 1.0%. The traditionally defensive-oriented sector has been a laggard for most of this year. As such, it currently trades with a year-to-date loss of 1.8%, while the S&P 500 is up nearly 8% year-to-date. DJ30 -15.34 NASDAQ -11.50 SP500 -3.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 936/830 mln/1550 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1161/388 mln/1693
10:30 am : Precious metals prices have pushed to impressive gains, such that gold prices are now up 0.9% to $1179.70 per ounce and silver prices are now up 0.5% to $18.65 per ounce. The gains come even though the dollar has started to improve its position so that it now trades with a 0.2% loss.
Within the energy complex, oil prices are up 0.6% to $85.70 per barrel. Natural gas prices have extended their slide from the prior session; the commodity is now down 0.8% to $3.95 per MMBtu.
In terms of the overall commodity picture, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.3% and on its way to a weekly loss of 1.1%. DJ30 -24.11 NASDAQ -13.34 SP500 -5.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 905/640 mln/1523 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1029/298 mln/1763
10:00 am : Stocks have slipped a bit in recent trade. A better-than-expected consumer confidence reading hasn't done much to help stop the dip.
The final Consumer Confidence Index for April from University of Michigan came in at 72.2, which is up from the preliminary reading of 69.5 and above the 71.0 that had been widely forecast.
Financials remain a primary source of weakness in the early going. The sector has extended its morning slide to a 0.8% loss. Tech is also down markedly, though. The sector currently contends with a 0.7% loss. As an aside, tech and financials are the two heaviest sectors by market weight.
09:45 am : Stocks are a bit mixed in the early going. Financials, which had been a primary source of leadership during the course of the prior two sessions, are under a bit of pressure at the moment. The sector is currently down 0.4% as insurers slip and Goldman Sachs (GS 151.88, -8.36) tumbles amid reports that a federal criminal probe will examine the firm.
The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index came in at 63.8, which is not only above the 60.0 that had been widely forecast but it is also the highest reading since 2005.
Coming up in a few minutes is the final Consumer Confidence Index for April from University of Michigan. DJ30 +18.36 NASDAQ +1.13 SP500 +0.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1048/225 mln/1183 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1497/115 mln/1147
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.30. Stock futures have surrendered a few points and now point to a relatively flat start to the session. The tepid tone follows the advance first quarter GDP report, which indicated that the economy chugged along at an annualized rate of 3.2% from January to March. Though the headline number was slightly short of the consensus call for a 3.3% increase, consumer spending accounted for plenty of the growth and was actually stronger than expected. Meanwhile, the report's inflation measures cooled from the fourth quarter, so the dollar has remained under pressure. Most of the dollar's weakness comes as a result of continued strength by the euro, which has benefited amid further contraction in the bond yields of Greece and Portugal as expectation builds for a firm solution to Greece's fiscal woes. Despite that expectation, Europe's major bourses are mixed. Asia's major market averages traded with strength in its final session of the week, though.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. U.S. stock futures have slipped a bit more in recent trade. Meanwhile, European stocks are mixed at the moment, despite further contraction in the yields of Greek and Portuguese bonds. The tightening marks an increase in confidence regarding the potential for the proper handling of a bailout for Greece. Germany's DAX is currently up 0.2%. It is led by Siemens (SI), but BASF is acting as a counterbalance. In France, the CAC is up 0.2% as energy giant Total (TOT) comes under pressure. Meanwhile, energy play Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) has helped support Britain's FTSE, which is down 0.5%. Barclays (BCS) is a primary drag in the wake of its first quarter results, which featured increased profit and fewer impairments. Asia's major market averages were mostly higher Friday. Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.2% amid a 1.2% year-over-year drop in consumer prices for March. Financials were a primary source of support. Tech issues were also strong. However, Takeda Pharmaceutical was a primary leader. Hong Kong's Hang Seng climbed to a 1.6% gain, bolstered by strength among financials. Chinese banks were among the biggest gainers as China Construction Bank climbed more than 4%. China's Shanghai Composite Index lagged, but still finished 0.1% for the better. However, Chinese bank stocks were generally strong, and casino plays saw large gains after Wynn Macau reported a 32% surge in first quarter revenue.
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.50. Stock futures have eased back a bit in response to the advance first quarter GDP report, which indicated that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 3.2%. However, that was slightly less than the 3.3% increase that had been expected and down from the 5.6% annualized increase that was registered in the fourth quarter. Personal consumption for the first quarter climbed 3.6%, which was stronger than the 3.3% increase that many economists had forecast. It was also a stronger than the 1.6% increase that had occurred in the fourth quarter. Core personal consumption expenditures increased 0.6% quarter-over-quarter. That was slightly better than the 0.5% quarterly increase that had been expected.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.30. First quarter GDP is the primary item on this morning's calendar. The advance reading is due at the bottom of the hour and economists, on average, are looking for an annualized growth rate of 3.3%. After the report's release comes the latest Chicago Purchasing Manager Index at 9:45 AM ET, then the final consumer confidence reading for April from University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET. For now, though, premarket traders are taking note of a weaker dollar, which has shed 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies this morning but is still up 0.5% week-to-date. Europe's major bourses are mixed, but Hong Kong's Hang Seng and Japan's Nikkei were strong in the wake of Wall Street's prior session climb. As for corporate news, quarterly results generally remain strong, but the wrong kind of attention has come back upon Goldman Sachs (GS) with CNBC's announcement that a federal criminal probe will examine the firm. Its shares are down nearly 4% ahead of the opening bell, but broader market stock futures are modestly higher.
06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80.
06:27 am : Nikkei...11057.40...+132.60...+1.20%. Hang Seng...21108.59...+329.70...+1.60%.
06:27 am : FTSE...5600.56...-17.60...-0.30%. DAX...6168.26...+23.70...+0.40%.
Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries.
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