TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Written By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip involving WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis) because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=67&t=380



FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market experience, discipline, money management, team collaboration, proper trading enviornment (home or office), market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +7.25 Emini ES ($ES_F) points


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Stocks Slip On Dubai Debt Woes
Worries about Dubai World's reluctance to pay off its debt rattle markets worldwide.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: November 27, 2009: 3:36 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks tumbled Friday afternoon as fears about the fallout from Dubai's debt problems rattled Wall Street in a thinly-traded half-day session following Thanksgiving.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 155 points, or 1.5%, after closing Wednesday at a 13-month high. The Dow had lost as much as 233 points in the morning.

The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 19 points or 1.7% after closing Wednesday at a 13-month high.

The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 37 points, or 1.7% after ending Wednesday just short of a 13-month high.

All financial markets were closed Thursday for Thanksgiving, and the stock market closed at 1 p.m. Friday. Trading volume was very light with many Wall Street pros taking a five-day weekend.

"The veneer of Black Friday has been eclipsed by Dubai on a light volume day," said Karl Mills, chief investment officer at Jurika, Mills & Keifer. "It will probably work itself out and is probably a containable fire at this point, but it also makes people wonder what else is out there."

Middle East fallout: The Dubai government shocked global investors late Wednesday by saying it needed at least a six-month deferment on the $60 billion in debt owed by Dubai World and Nakheel.

Dubai World is the government-owned holding company for Dubai, the most populous of the seven Emirates that make up the United Arab Emirates. Nakheel is its real estate arm.

Dubai's construction boom has helped transform the Emirate into one of the world's financial centers, as well as a tourist hot spot. But Dubai has not been immune to the real estate collapse that has hit the rest of the world, with values plummeting even as pricey projects continue to get underway.

"It's an unexpected event and it reminds us that there is still a lot of debt and underlying problems out there," said Mills.

Black Friday: Initial reports suggest that although Black Friday appears to be milder than in recent years, consumers are indeed out in droves to take advantage of discounts on toys, clothes, games and entertainment.

Black Friday, the first shopping day of the critical holiday retail period, is seen as a key barometer of how the next six weeks will play out. In a year fraught with rising joblessness - the unemployment rate is at a 26-year high of 10.2% - Black Friday is also being dissected for clues on the health of the consumer.

Retailers including Toys R Us, which opened its doors at midnight on Thanksgiving, were seeing shoppers take advantage of "doorbuster" deals. Wal-Mart Stores (WMT, Fortune 500), Best Buy (BBY, Fortune 500) and Sears were among the other retailers benefiting from a consumer that is strained, but willing to take advantage of substantial price cuts on key items. (For details, click here.)

World markets: European markets erased early losses on Dubai World to turn higher late in the session. London's FTSE 100, Germany's DAX and France's CAC 40 all gained at least 1.3%. Asian markets tumbled, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng losing 4.8%.

Currency and commodities: The dollar rallied versus the euro and the yen, following the Dubai news. The greenback's rally pummeled dollar-traded oil and gold prices.

COMEX gold for December delivery fell $13 to $1175 after ending Wednesday's session at a record $1,187 an ounce.

U.S. light crude oil for January delivery fell $1.91 to $76.05 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury pricesrose in a classic flight-to-quality move amid the weakness in stocks. The rally lowered the yield on the 10-year note to 3.20% from 3.27% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Market breadth was positive and volume was light. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers six to one on volume of 655 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers four to one on volume of 970 million shares.



Yahoo! Finance

1:05 pm : Many had expected a shortened session of subdued trade to follow the Thanksgiving holiday, but sellers moved concertedly to pressure stocks amid news of credit troubles in Dubai. Their actions gave the stock market its worst single-session percentage drop of the month and caused volatility to spike.

News that the Dubai government took charge of restructuring its corporate flagship, Dubai World, and asked creditors to defer payments of some $20 billion of debt due in the next 18 months sent U.S. stock futures reeling. Though pressure eased prior to the opening bell, stocks still started the session sharply lower.

The weakness reflected that of Europe's major indices during Thursday's trade, when U.S. markets were closed in observance of Thanksgiving, and Asia's weakness in its final session of the week. The news of Dubai was the primary focus for the entire session. Updates for the progress of "Black Friday" promotional sales were secondary.

Financials felt considerable pressure in the wake of the Dubai debacle. The sector shed 2.8% as bank stocks and diversified financial services stocks were imbued with weakness associated with news that the likes of Lloyds Group (LYG 5.71, -0.49) and HSBC (HBC 58.46, -3.61) and other European banks are closely tied to lending to Dubai.

The news also gave broader market participants a nudge to lock in gains from the market's multimonth rally. Losses were broad based, too. In fact, all 30 Dow components logged a loss, while roughly 95% of the listings in the S&P 500 finished in negative territory.

Amid the pressure, many global participants looked for quality. That favored the U.S. dollar, which exacerbated weakness among stocks. The dollar surrendered more than half of its early advance to settle with a gain of just 0.3%.

The greenback's initial advance also pressured commodities, which had already been suffering from global selling pressure, too. The CRB Commodity Index had been down roughly 4% in the early going, but finished with a loss of 2.0%.

Broader market pressure and weakness among commodities took their toll on the materials sector and the energy sector. The two led declines for most of the session and both finished with a 2.4% loss.

Though stocks slumped, volatility spiked this session. As such, the Volatility Index surged 20%. That's its biggest single-session percentage advance since a 23% spike late last month.DJ30 -154.48 NASDAQ -37.61 NQ100 -1.6% R2K -2.5% SP400 -2.0% SP500 -19.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 453/947 mln/2108 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 424/653 mln/2528

12:30 pm : After a steady, upward march that helped the Dow halve its losses, stocks are now making a gradual descent deeper into negative territory. Stocks are off of their lows, but the persistent pessimism has made for some rather sizable losses.DJ30 -146.09 NASDAQ -32.86 SP500 -17.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 504/734 mln/2011 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 437/445 mln/2492

12:00 pm : Stocks have stemmed their losses, but weakness persists as they start to drift sideways. Losses are least severe among defensive-oriented sectors like health care and telecom, both of which are down 0.8%.

Conversely, energy continues to contend with the worst selling pressure. The sector is down 2.2%. It had been down 3.3% at its session low, though. The sector's move off of its session low has been accompanied by oil's lift. Oil futures prices had been down some 6% in early pit trade, but it was last quoted at $75.95 per ounce, down 2.8%. DJ30 -123.20 NASDAQ -25.63 SP500 -14.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 545/640 mln/1946 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 428/386 mln/2463

11:30 am : Stocks have been gradually trimming their losses, but recently pulled back a bit as they take a breather from the ascent, which took the Dow from a loss of roughly 2.2% to a loss of 0.9%. Still, all 30 Dow components are trading with a loss.

As stocks have trimmed their losses, the dollar has trimmed its gains. The greenback had been up approximatlye 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies, but it is now up a more tame 0.3%. DJ30 -145.48 NASDAQ -28.01 SP500 -16.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 490/588 mln/1975 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 400/361 mln/2481

11:00 am : Stocks are gradually trimming their losses. That has put them at morning highs, but weakness remains widespread as 98% of the companies in the S&P 500 log losses.

Retailer Sears Holding (SHLD 73.07, +0.61) is one of the few advancers in the braoder market. Medical equipment and supplies outfit Baxter International (BAX 55.13, +0.38) is also putting together a gain.

Amid weakness in the broader market, volatility has spiked. In turn, the Volatility Index, or VIX, is up more than 13%. However, that is only half of the spike that the VIX had traded with at its morning high, which was reached at the open.DJ30 -108.98 NASDAQ -24.93 SP500 -12.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 433/482 mln/1994 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 382/306 mln/2467

10:30 am : The CRB Commodity Index is down 2.6% in its worst single-session slide since August. It had been down roughly 4% at its morning low. The drop in commodities comes as participants flee from riskier holdings for relative safe havens. That has helped lift the U.S. dollar, which has only exacerbated weakness among commodities -- the greenback had been up as much as 0.8% against other currencies earlier, but it has eased back to sport a more modest gain of 0.3% and take some of the pressure off of commodities.

Oil prices are under particular pressure. Oil is currently being priced at $74.90 per barrel. It had been down more than 6% in early pit trade.

Natural gas prices are also down sharply. Contracts were last quoted at $4.93 each, down 4.5%.

As for precious metals, gold is trading hands at $1170 per ounce, down 1.4%. Meanwhile, silver is off by 2.8% at $18.24 per ounce.

On a similar note, the Baltic Dry Index has now followed up its 17-session advance with six straight down sessions. On Thursday it lost 2.7%, but came back to drop 3.5% on Friday. DJ30 -150.92 NASDAQ -36.06 SP500 -17.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 338/399 mln/2060 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 247/257 mln/2600

10:00 am : Stocks continue to trade with steep losses. Declines are worst among energy stocks and materials stocks as oil prices and basic commodities and materials prices plummet. More specifically, the energy sector has lost 2.6% as oil prices drop 4.1% to $74.75 per barrel; oil prices had been down more than 6% in the first few minutes of pit trade. Materials stocks are down 2.8% as the CRB Commodity Index drops 2.9% in its worst single-session percentage slide in seven months.

Though still considerable, losses are least severe among defensive-oriented sectors. Telecom is down 1.1%, health care is down 1.3%, and the consumer staples sector is down 1.4%.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Materials (-2.8%), Energy (-2.6%), Industrials (-2.2%), Financials (-2.1%), Tech (-1.9%), Consumer Discretionary (-1.8%), Utilities (-1.7%), Consumer Staples (-1.4%), Health Care (-1.3%), Telecom (-1.1%)DJ30 -160.90 NASDAQ -44.46 SP500 -19.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 271/270 mln/2074 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 176/185 mln/2624

09:45 am : Stocks have started the session with steep, broad-based losses that took nearly every major sector in the S&P 500 to a loss of at least 2%. The Nasdaq has trimmed a small portion of its losses, but weakness in the broader market remains widespread as declining issues outnumber advancers by more than 15-to-1 in the NYSE.

Small-caps and mid-caps are down steep. As such, the Russell 2000 is off by 2.3%, while the S&P 400 has dropped 2.4% in the opening minutes of this session.

Amid the weakness in equities, participants are pursuing Treasuries. That has the benchmark 10-year Note up 14 ticks and sent its yield down to 3.22%, which hasn't been seen since early October. DJ30 -194.61 NASDAQ -47.25 SP500 -24.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 227/1.54 bln/2066 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 155/124 mln/2594

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -28.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -43.00. Concern stemming from news that officials in Dubai will take over Dubai World and are looking to defer payments on some $20 billion due in the next 18 months has led many global participants to dump stocks and pursue less risky holdings. That has helped to prop up both U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar, which is currently up 0.8% against a basket of major foreign currencies. However, interest in the greenback has exacerbated pressure against commodities and U.S. stock futures, which currently point to a considerably lower start for the session. Such a start would make up for the losses that hit overseas markets while the U.S. celebrated its Thanksgiving holiday.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -29.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -44.50. An advancing U.S. dollar and a downbeat bias among global participants has put commodities under a stiff spell of selling pressure. Oil prices are down 5.2% to $73.90 per barrel in the opening moments of pit trade. Gold prices are down 2.3% to $1159.20 per ounce. The collective weakness of commodities has the CRB Commodity Index down 3.3%, which makes for its worst single-session percentage drop in seven months.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -26.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -39.50. U.S. stock futures are off of their morning lows, but they continue to contend with considerable selling pressure as they catch up with the losses made by foreign markets in the previous session. After sliding more than 3% in the previous session, Britain's FTSE has stabilized so that it trades with a modest 0.5% gain. However, Lloyds Banking (LYG) and Standard Chartered remain under considerable pressure after reports indicated that they have exposure to the credit troubles in Dubai. France's CAC has made its way to a 0.8% gain after a drop of more than 3% in the previous session. Its advancing issues currently outnumber its decliners by 3-to-1. Germany's DAX is up 0.6% in broad-based fashion after shedding some 3% on Thursday. Deutsche Bank (DB) dropped some 6% in the previous session, but has rebounded to trade as a primary leader this session; the stock is up 3% at the moment. In Asia, losses are considerable. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 4.8% as all 42 of its components logged losses. HSBC (HBC) came under the heaviest pressure. In Japan, the Nikkei dropped 3.2% with some 95% of its components falling into negative ground. Fast Retailing was the session's primary laggard.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -27.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -43.00. Stock futures are trading sharply lower as sellers return from the Thanksgiving holiday to sell stocks. The pressure comes amid news that the Dubai government will take charge of restructuring its corporate flagship, Dubai World, and has asked creditors to accept delayed payments. That has kept shares of several European and Asian banks under pressure for the past couple of sessions. Their weakness has imbued U.S. equity futures in general, but shares of major U.S. financial institutions are showing particular weakness. A stronger dollar hasn't helped sway the tone of things this morning, either. The Dollar Index is currently up 0.6%. There aren't any economic reports out today, so the primary focus of the financial media will be on retail sales updates as shoppers seek after-Thanksgiving and preholiday specials.

06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -33.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -54.00.

06:20 am : Nikkei...9081.52...-301.70...-3.20%. Hang Seng...21134.50...-1075.90...-4.80%.

06:20 am : FTSE...5171.09...-22.70...-0.40%. DAX...5587.36...-26.80...-0.50%.

M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
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