TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The price action (key change in supply/demand) that had the most impact on today's price action ocurred @ 1000am est via providing support and confirming two Long signals and it could have impact on tomorrow's trading session.

With that said, I missed almost the entire trading day except for the last few minutes before the close due to personal appointments.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradingReports.htm

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=60&t=218

My Trading Performance: +0.25 Emini ES points


-------------------------------



Blue Chips Scratch Out A Gain
Dow and S&P 500 gain after jobless claims, leading indicators and Philly Fed surprise economists. Nasdaq little changed.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: June 18, 2009: 5:45 PM ET

NEW YORK�(CNNMoney.com) -- Blue chips managed to advance Thursday after encouraging signs in the day's labor market and manufacturing reports, but the gains were modest and tech selling kept the Nasdaq from joining the advance.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 58 points, or 0.7%. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 7 points, or 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) was barely changed.

A three-month market rally has lost steam over the last week as bets that the pace of the recession is waning have turned to worries the market has gotten ahead of itself.

Reports on Thursday provided some reassurance, but stocks remain vulnerable to further pullbacks in the near term. The only economic report on tap for Friday is state-by-state unemployment reports.

"We've already priced in an end of the recession and the start of the recovery," said Bill Webb, deputy chief investment officer at Gluskin Sheff. "And with the market up 40%, it's a little bit vulnerable in the short term."

The S&P 500 rallied 40% between March 9, when it hit a 12-year low, and the end of last week. But it has pulled back so far this week. As of Thursday's close, the S&P 500 was up 35.5% off of the lows. Markets in Europe and Asia have pulled back too.

"The rally has eased up globally and investors want to lock in some gains," said Joe Arnold, founder and president of Foundation Wealth Advisors. "That's not to say it was a phantom bull run, but I think we'll see sideways trading for now."

He said after the sprint, investors are now in a transition phase as they absorb big changes in the auto industry, the banking industry and the way firms are regulated by the government.

Trading was also being influenced by quadruple options expiration, a quarterly event on a Friday in which stock index futures and options and individual stock futures and options all expire at the same time.

BlackBerry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) was likely to slide Friday morning. After the close Thursday, the company reported higher quarterly earnings that topped estimates and higher quarterly revenue that missed estimates. The company also forecast current-quarter earnings that are above forecasts and sales at the low end of forecasts. Shares slumped 5% in after-hours trading.

The Nasdaq managed gains Wednesday, but the Dow and S&P slipped after S&P cut the credit ratings on 22 banks and President Obama announced a major overhaul of the financial regulatory system.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner testified before lawmakers Thursday, defending Obama's plan.

Economy: The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment rose slightly last week to 608,000 from a revised 605,000 in the prior week, the Labor Department reported. Economists expected 604,000 claims, according to a Briefing.com survey.

But continuing claims slumped for the first time since the week ended Jan. 3. Continuing claims refer to people who have been collecting claims for a week or more.

The Philadelphia Fed index, a reading on regional manufacturing, improved to negative 2.2 from negative 22.6 last month. Economists expected a reading of negative 17. In addition, the index's measure of future activity surged to its highest level since September 2003.

An index of leading economic indicators (LEI) rose 1.2% in May, the Conference Board reported. LEI gained 1.1% in April and was expected to increase 1% last month.

Bonds: Treasury pricestumbled, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.83% from 3.69% Wednesday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: U.S. light crude oil for July delivery rose 34 cents to settle at $71.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for August delivery fell $1.40 to settle at $934.60 an ounce.

In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

In global trading, Asian markets ended lower and European markets mostly ended higher.

Market breadth was positive and volume was moderate. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners topped losers four to three on volume of 1.09 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers beat decliners seven to six on volume of almost 2.12 billion shares.



Yahoo! Finance

4:15 pm : The stock market slipped in the first few minutes of trading, but was able to recover and log its best single-session advance by percent in two weeks. The advance was broad-based as six of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 posted a gain.

There wasn't any individual leader behind the move. Instead, health care (+2.2%), financials (+2.5%), utilities (+2.3%), and consumer staples stocks (+1.9%) all made impressive gains.

Health care stocks outperformed the broader market for the third straight session. The latest advance came via support from managed care (+6.2%) and healthcare facilities (+3.9%) amid an increased possibility that healthcare reform is going to be costlier and less expansive than expected.

The financial sector was helped by regional banks (+3.2%), which snapped back from the prior session's marked decline, and consumer finance stocks (+1.0%), which followed the lead of Discover Financial (DFS 9.28, +0.37). Discover issued a pleasing quarterly report and had a relatively encouraging conference call, during which the company stated it will repay its TARP funds when it is prudent to do so.

Amid ongoing chatter regarding its intended offer for NRG Energy (NRG 23.81, +1.06) and recent efforts to restructure its executive lineup and reduce costs, Exelon (EXC 50.42, +1.99) was a leader among utilities.

Consumer staples stocks were led by J.M. Smucker (SJM 47.88, +4.24), which posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings and raised its guidance.

Retailers traded with weakness for the entire session and finished 1.3% lower. Semiconductor stocks also lagged, leading the Semiconductor Index to a 1.8% loss. Weakness among semiconductors weighed on tech stocks (-0.5%) and caused the Nasdaq to underperform the other headline indices.

Trading volume in the broader market was exceptionally low this session. Hardly 1 billion shares exchanged hands on the NYSE this session. Trading volume has averaged 1.5 billion shares during the course of the last 50 sessions.

Nonetheless, this session's solid, broad-based gains came on the back of the latest jobless claims report, which indicated that 608,000 initial claims were filed for the week ending June 13. Continuing claims came in at 6.69 million. Initial claims were in-line with expectations and continue to trend lower, but continuing claims made a surprise pullback from record highs. However, both numbers remain at disconcerting levels.

In other economic news, the Philadelphia Fed Index for June came in with a less dismal-than-expected reading and leading economic indicators for May increased slightly more than expected.

Treasuries were knocked sharply lower after the Treasury Department announced a series of auctions for next week. The auction will carry amounts that exceed what was expected, which pressured the benchmark 10-year Note and sent its yield up above 3.8%.

Treasury Secretary Geithner provided testimony to Congress about financial regulatory reform. His comments didn't have any meaningful impact on trading.DJ30 +58.42 NASDAQ -0.34 NQ100 -0.1% R2K +0.5% SP400 +0.7% SP500 +7.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1403/2.08 bln/1239 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1741/1.09 bln/1263

3:30 pm : Equities continue to trade with healthy gains. The Nasdaq is lagging the broader market, trading fractionally above the flat line.

Commodities as a whole were largely unchanged on the session.

Natural gas was the major exception. Natural gas futures sank following bearish inventory data, which showed a greater-than-expected build. The July natural gas contracts finished at $4.08 per contract, just a penny above their session low.

Crude oil, on the other hand, traded around the flat line for most of the session. July crude oil hit a session low of $70.22 per barrel early in the morning and a session high of $71.75 per barrel late in the afternoon. The July crude oil contract closed at $71.31 per barrel, up 0.3%.

Meanwhile, after hitting a session high of $944 per ounce in the middle of the morning, the August gold futures sold off and closed down 0.2% at $934.50 per ounce.

July silver traded in negative territory for almost the entire session and closed at $14.23 per ounce, down 0.4%.DJ30 +67.80 NASDAQ +1.96 SP500 +8.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1388/1.72 bln/1210 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1776/748 mln/1213

3:00 pm : Stocks are back to moving sideways after driftng modestly lower. Gains remain broad-based as advancers outnumber declining issues by almost 2-to-1.

Financials, health care, consumer staples, and utilities are all up 2% or more. Tech (-0.2%) and energy (-0.1%) are the only two sectors still in the red.

There isn't much trading going on today, making for a slow-moving session. Heading into the final hour of trading, volume on the NYSE is less than half of the totals that have been averaged during the last few weeks.DJ30 +70.44 NASDAQ +4.42 SP500 +9.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1403/1.57 bln/1204 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1813/684 mln/1164

2:30 pm : On a fairly slow news day, the major averages are currently holding onto gains, but are drifting lower as we near the end of the session. The Nasdaq continues to underperform, and is now essentially flat for the day.

Several industries within the healthcare sector, including health/life insurance, managed healthcare, and healthcare facilities, are stronger today. Although there doesn't appear to be any specific news out to account for the outperformance, stocks in this sector are likely higher due to an increased possibility that healthcare reform is going to be costlier than expected, and may cover less individuals than originally thought. UnitedHealth (UNH) is up ~4%, Wellpoint (WLP) is higher by ~4%, and Aetna (AET) is up nearly 5%.DJ30 55.5 NASDAQ +0.43 SP500 +6.5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1358/2712/2339 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1700/3071/1249

2:00 pm : Semiconductor stocks are slumping despite gains in the broader market. While the S&P 500 is up more than 1%, the Semiconductor Index is down 1.5%.

Declining issues outnumber advancers by 5-to-1 in the Semiconductor Index. Sandisk (SNDK 14.28, -0.77) and Broadcom (BRCM 25.22, -0.74) are casting the heaviest drag on the group. Taiwan Semicondutor (TSM 9.32, +0.10) is working to offset the weakness, however.

Despite this session's weakness, the Semiconductor Index is up more than 23% this year. The S&P 500, meanwhile, is up less than 2% year-to-date.DJ30 +82.61 NASDAQ +5.79 SP500 +10.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/1.34 bln/1167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1797/563 mln/1150

1:30 pm : Oil prices have tracked higher to trade with a 0.8% gain at $71.60 per barrel. Meanwhile, the energy sector is trading with just a 0.2% gain.

Hess (HESS 54.39, +1.26) and Pride International (PDE 25.25, +0.91) are providing the energy sector with solid support. Shares of PDE were actually upgraded by analysts at Citigroup.

Undercutting the energy sector has been a marked decline in Anadarko Petroleum (APC 46.31, -1.11), however. DJ30 +87.37 NASDAQ +6.59 SP500 +10.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1402/1.25 bln/1148 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1860/526 mln/1068

1:00 pm : Despite a weak start, the S&P 500 is on course for its best single-session percentage gain in two weeks. The upward move comes on the back of some pleasing economic data.

Stocks garnered a bit of support in premarket trading when initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 totaled 608,000, which is in-line with expectations and a confirmation that the pace of layoffs has slowed. Meanwhile, continuing claims pulled back from record highs seen in the prior week. Still, the 6.69 million continuing claims is hardly a number to get excited about.

Though the jobless claims report provided support ahead of the opening bell, stocks slipped in the first few minutes of trading. They caught a bid, though, when the Philadelphia Fed Index for June came in with a -2.2 reading, which was far less dismal than the -17.0 that was expected. Though the data is regional, it often correlates with the more closely watched ISM. At the same time, leading economic indicators for May increased 1.2%, which is slightly better than the 1.0% increase that was expected, and up a bit from the 1.1% increase seen in April. Gains are relatively broad-based this session.

Financial stocks are showing particular strength as they climb 2.3%. Regional banks are up a handsome 3.0% as they recover from the prior session's hit, which stemmed from Standard & Poor's decision to lower its ratings for 22 banks. Fifth Third Bancorp (FITB 7.15, +0.34) is showing particular strength; it announced that its tender offer has satisfied its commitment to increase its Tier 1 common equity by $1.1 billion.

Consumer finance stocks (+1.6%) are also providing support to the broader financial sector, thanks to a pleasing quarterly report from Discover Financial (DFS 9.43, +0.52). Specifically, the company's managed net charge-off rate increased, but to a lesser degree indicated during its conference call that reform will make the industry smaller, but less risk will result.

Health care stocks are showing leadership for the third straight session. The sector is currently up 2.4%.

Tech stocks and industrial stocks have spent the entire session lagging, but both have managed to pare their losses to trade down fractionally as the broader market turns higher.

Retailers remain materially in the red, though. Retailers in the S&P 500 are down 0.6%, collectively. However, the widely followed SPDR Retail ETF (XRT 27.14, +0.29) is up.

Treasuries are trading with weakness. As such, the 10-year Note is down one full point, which has pushed its yield up to 3.82%. The move comes after the Treasury announced a series of auctions for next week, which carries amounts that exceed what the market had been expecting.

Treasury Geithner provided a testimony to Congress about financial regulatory reform. His comments haven't had any meaningful impact on trading.DJ30 +78.60 NASDAQ +5.31 SP500 +9.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1369/1.15 bln/1164 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1796/479 mln/1124

12:30 pm : Stocks have entered a relatively narrow trading range, in which the S&P 500 has spent the last two hours between 915 and 919.

Telecom and utilities stocks have made a steady ascent to their best levels of the day, though. They are up 1.1% and 1.8%, respectively.

Tech stocks have been mired in a fit of weakness, however. In turn, the sector is trading just above its session low with a 0.4% loss.DJ30 +69.16 NASDAQ -1.30 SP500 +7.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1250/1.05 bln/1265 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1703/438 mln/1206

12:00 pm : Shares of retailers are having a tough time today. The group is currently down 1.2% as shares of Macy's (M 10.79, -0.44) and Best Buy (BBY 34.61, -1.26) go on the retreat. Though Best Buy reported earlier this week upbeat earnings, the stock has been challenged ever since that announcement; week-to-date, shares of BBY are down 11%.

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF 26.79, -0.18) is also trading lower. The stock actually started the session in positive territory, but has since fallen into the red. Analysts at Credit Suisse actually raised their estimates for the stock after the company announced it will shutter its Ruehl concept stores.DJ30 +69.84 NASDAQ -2.40 SP500 +7.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1222/948 mln/1268 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1663/396 mln/1217

11:30 am : Stocks have made an upward turn, but remain off of their session highs. Still, the advance has taken the S&P 500 above the prior session's high.

Gains are broad, but most impressive among financial stocks (+2.1%). Discover Financial (DFS 9.61, +0.70) is among the primary leaders in the group. The company has garnered support after posting its latest quarterly results, which included some encouraging metrics.

Utilities stocks are also having a strong session, despite their traditionally defensive characteristics. The sector is up 1.5% as Exelon (EXC 50.40, +1.97) spikes after announcing some major cost reductions and a restructuring of its senior executive team. American Electric (AEP 28.06, +0.27) is sporting a solid gain of its own; the company reaffirmed an in-line forecast for fiscal 2009.DJ30 +63.87 NASDAQ -3.30 SP500 +6.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1181/852 mln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1652/356 mln/1215

11:00 am : The major indices are drifting downward after climbing to a solid gain. The drift has taken the Nasdaq Composite back into negative territory.

The Nasdaq's decline comes as large-cap tech names like Microsoft (MSFT 23.41, -0.27) and Cisco (CSCO 19.04, -0.16) push lower. The Nasdaq is receiving some support from biotech and drug outfits Celgene (CELG 46.05, +1.11) and Gilead Sciences (GILD 46.51, +0.98), though.DJ30 +55.02 NASDAQ -3.90 SP500 +5.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1068/707 mln/1313 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1417/296 mln/1380

10:30 am : Natural gas prices have dropped after the latest batch of weekly inventory data showed a larger-than-expected build. Contracts for natural gas are now at $4.15 each, down 2.4%.

Crude oil prices are trading a modest 0.4% higher at $71.30 per barrel. Year-to-date, oil prices are up 60%.

Precious metals are mixed as the U.S. dollar makes a modest pullback. With the greenback down 0.1% against a basket of major foreign currencies, gold prices are up 0.5% to $940.20 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver is down 0.5% to $14.22 per ounce.DJ30 +75.58 NASDAQ +1.56 SP500 +8.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1122/534 mln/1186 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1651/232 mln/1110

10:00 am : The stock market is on the mend after slipping in the first few minutes of trade. The advance has been broad-based.

The improved tone comes after the Philadelphia Fed Index showed a much smaller-than-expected decline for June. According to the data, the regional report came in with a -2.2 reading. It was expected to come in at -17.0.

Financial stocks (+2.1%) continue to show particular strength as regional banks (+2.9%), diversified banks (+1.9%), and diversified financial services stocks (+2.6%) snap back after getting hit in the prior session by ratings downgrades from Standard & Poor's.

Early movers: Trading up -- NPBC +35.6%, NNI +20.2%, PIR +15.5%, SLM +10.1%, SJM +9.9%, ARM +9.7%, IRE +7.8%, FSYS +7.8%, DFS +7.7%, VICL +7.6%, MPEL +7.2%, MIPI +7.2%, LGF +6.7%, ING +6.3%, YRCW +5.1%; Trading down -- SOA -13.8%, ACAS -13%, LIZ -10.7%, IMGN -9.9%, HPT -8.7%, HIMX -6.8%, GNTX -6.2%, QLTI -6%, JAZZ -5.6%, PCX -4.9%, RTP -4.9%DJ30 +55.70 NASDAQ +1.90 SP500 +8.59 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1106/342 mln/1115 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1584/157 mln/1077

09:45 am : Stocks are trying to find their direction in the early going. After dropping precipitously in the first few minutes, stocks are now rebounding.

The recent upward move has been led by the financial sector, which is up 1.2%, more than any other sector.

Industrials are trading as primary laggards. The sector has already shed 1.5% as General Electric (GE 11.65, -0.50) comes under pressure in the wake of an article from The Wall Street Journal suggesting that President Obama's proposed regulatory reform for financial markets could bring GE's capital arm under stricter scrutiny. GE's capital arm had already been a source of considerable problems for the conglomerate.DJ30 +5.07 NASDAQ -8.58 SP500 +0.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 752/207 mln/1409 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/98 mln/1591

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Stock futures have improved from earlier levels and now point to a modestly higher start to the session. The improved tone follows an in-line initial jobless claims report, which seemed to confirm that the pace of layoffs has slowed. Moreover, continuing claims made a surprise pullback from record highs. Still, there haven't been many other upbeat headlines or trading catalysts this morning, which could potentially open the door for sellers to push back. If that scenario plays out, the S&P 500 could face its fourth straight loss. Week-to-date, the stock market is down nearly 4%.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. European stocks are to overcome their recent fit of weakness. Britain's FTSE is currently down 0.5%, marking its fourth decline in five sessions. BP PLC (BP) is among the primary laggards, as is Rio Tinto (RTP). According to The Wall Street Journal, a proposed iron-ore joint venture between BHP Billiton (BHP) and Rio Tinto won't lessen competition between the two companies, Australia's trade minister said. France's CAC had been down for the fifth straight session, but recently reversed course to trade with a 0.1% gain. Energy giant Total (TOT) is weighing heavily on the index. In Germany, the DAX is working to make its way into positive ground; it is currently down 0.1%, and down 5.5% week-to-date. In Asia, the MSCI Asia-Pacific Index closed 1.3% lower and Japan's Nikkei shed 1.4%. A stronger yen hit exporters like Honda (HMC) and Canon (CAJ). Banks were hit after their U.S. counterparts fell the previous day on a broad downgrade from Standard & Poor's. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 1.7%, dragged down by banks. HSBC (HBC) and China Construction Bank were among those that dropped. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite managed to make a 1.6% advance. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, the country's biggest commercial lender, gained, as did China Construction Bank.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.30. Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 13 totaled 608,000 which is a tad more than the 604,000 initial claims that were expected. The latest figures marked an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's moderately upwardly revised data. Continuing claims came in at 6.69 million, which marks a pullback from last week's record high. On average, economists had expected continuing claims to total 6.84 million after the data for the previous week was revised upward to 6.84 million. Stock futures have improved moderately in the wake of the news, and now point to a mixed start for the session.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.80. There isn't much news for traders to act on this morning, but the latest dose of weekly jobless claims data should offer a catalyst when it is released at the bottom of the hour. The consensus calls for initial claims of 604,000 for the week ending June 13. Participants will also be keeping an eye on Treasury Secretary Geithner as he testifies before Congress throughout the day. Stock futures currently point to a moderately lower start for the session.

06:28 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50.

06:28 am : Nikkei...9703.72...-137.10...-1.40%. Hang Seng...17776.66...-307.90...-1.70%.

06:28 am : FTSE...4270.19...-8.30...-0.20%. DAX...4799.19...-1.40...0.00.

Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage