TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Archive Real-Time Chat Logs (timestamp, entries/exits, position size): http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewforum.php?f=20
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $14062.50 dollars or +281.25 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $14062.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my live trades are posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. The live trade is posted 3.2 seconds on average after the trade confirmation via an auto script. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in the free ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=156&t=2363

The free chat room is not a signal calling chat room. I do not mentor (never have) and there's no education in the free chat room although I occasionally give real-time WRB Analysis. Yet, members are allowed to ask questions. The free chat room is on IRC via users request but I also use two other different communication software (e.g. Skype) for other users that do not like IRC simple text format.


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Daily Trading Plan Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=291&t=3143 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market ended the Wednesday affair on a flat note as the major averages rebounded following a hawkish reading of the FOMC's April minutes. Other focal points of today's action included continued weakness from the retail sub-group, a rebound in the dollar, and the outperformance of the heavily-weighted financial (+1.9%), technology (+0.5%), and health care (+0.3%) groups. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) finished ahead of the S&P 500 (UNCH) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (UNCH).

The major averages began their day on a choppy note as overseas indices responded to raised expectations regarding the timing and speed of interest rate normalization in the U.S. Meanwhile, a weaker-than-expected outlook from Target (TGT 67.84, -5.77) pressured the retail sub-group and big box names. However, equities recovered from their opening-hour weakness as strength from the oil patch extended into the broader market.

Equity indices climbed through the afternoon as support from oil and the heavyweight financial (+1.9%), technology (+0.5%), and health care (+0.3%) spaces bolstered the broader market. The major averages notched session highs shortly before the release of the FOMC Minutes from the April meeting.

The minutes from the April FOMC meeting indicated that a June rate hike remains wholly on the table. The committee did note that it would continue to assess incoming economic data and whether it was consistent with the Fed's dual mandate. As a result, the fed funds futures market ended the day with a 33.8% likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, compared to yesterday's 15.0% probability.

Seven sectors ended in the red with utilities (-1.9%), materials (-1.5%), telecom services (-1.4%) and consumer staples (-1.0%). Conversely, the heavyweight financial (+1.9%), technology (+0.5%), and health care (+0.3%) groups finished with the only gains.

In the financial sector (+1.9%), money center banks demonstrated relative strength as the group responded to the increased likelihood of an interest rate hike in the short term. Bank of America (BAC 14.69, +0.68) and Citigroup (C 45.87, +2.17) ended with gains of 4.9% and 5.0%, respectively. Conversely, interest-rate sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) underperformed in the space.

The high-beta chipmakers outperformed in the technology space (+0.5%), evidenced by the 1.6% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Micron Technology (MU 10.05, +0.38) and Cavium Networks (CAVM 47.77, +1.30) finished at the top of the price-weighted index. In the broader sector, Apple (AAPL 94.56, +1.07) gained 1.1% after announcing it would establish a Design and Development Accelerator in Bengaluru, India.

In the health care space (+0.3%), biotechnology outperformed, evidenced by the 1.4% gain in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 262.77, +3.60). The ETF sports a loss of 1.9% for the month of May.

Big box names weighed in the consumer staples space (-1.0%) as the group traded lower with consumer discretionary (-0.6%) name Target. The company disappointed investors with its guidance, but topped bottom-line estimates for the quarter. Elsewhere, Wal-Mart (WMT 63.15, -1.95) lost 3.0% ahead of tomorrow morning's earnings report.

A downturn in Treasuries weighed on the interest-rate sensitive utilities (-1.9%) sector as yields rose throughout the complex. The yield on the 10-yr note ended its day higher by seven basis points at 1.85%.

The Dollar Index (95.22, +0.67) spiked following the release of the FOMC minutes, which could breathe new life into the policy divergence trade. The euro/dollar pair ended lower by 0.9% (1.1216) while the dollar/yen pair finished at 110.22 (+1.0%).

Today's volume on the NYSE floor came in below the recent average with fewer than 758 million shares changing hands. However, a trading unit at the NYSE experienced technical issues, which temporarily suspended trading in 199 symbols.

Today's economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index:

The weekly MBA Mortgage Index showed a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.6% in mortgage applications.

Tomorrow's economic data will include weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 278k) and the Philadelphia Fed Survey for May (Briefing.com consensus 2.7), which will both cross the wires at 8:30 ET. Finally, April Leading Indicators (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite -5.4% YTD
Russell 2000 -3.1% YTD
S&P 500 +0.2% YTD
Dow Jones +0.6% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index sees a notable afternoon spike after the release of the Fed Minutes stating a June rate hike is on the table, index is up +0.6% around the 95.14 level
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are down -0.4% at 85.40
Crude oil closes lower following the release of EIA storage data that showed an unexpected build compared to estimates for a draw
June crude oil futures fell $0.15 (-0.3%) to $48.15/barrel
Crude oil inventories had a build of +1.31 mln (consensus called for a draw of about -2.7 mln)
Gasoline inventories had a draw of -2.496 mln
Distillate inventories had a draw of -3.17 mln
Contributing factors affecting the price of oil include:
Goldman Sachs has made bullish comments about WTI crude, suggesting the oil market has gone to a supply deficit situation
Nigerian supply concerns after Nigerian output has been curtailed substantially on unrest there
Venezuelan oil production concerns amid political instability in the region
Oil investor T. Boone Pickens believes supply & demand are now balanced, expects $50-$60/barrel oil prices as early as 2 months from now
API inventory data released yesterday after the bell showed a build of +3.5 mln barrels compared to expectations for a draw of about -3.2 mln barrels
The next OPEC meeting is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2016
Natural gas declines for the fourth consecutive trading session, closing near the lows of the day
June natural gas closed $0.05 lower (-2.4%) at $2.00/MMBtu
EIA natural gas inventory data is scheduled to be released tomorrow at 10:30 am ET
In precious metals, gold plunges to finish pit trading at fresh lows of the day
June gold ended today's session down $2.00 (-0.2%) to $1274.60/oz
Silver moved in tandem with gold, finishing at fresh lows of the day in afternoon pit trading
July silver closed today's session $0.10 lower (-0.6%) at $17.14/oz
Base metal copper continues its initial morning decline in afternoon pit trading
July copper closed $0.01 lower (-0.5%) at $2.08/lb

3:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] As the stock market enters its final hour of trade, the S&P 500 (-0.2%) trades in-line with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and behind the Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%).

Seven sectors trade in the red with countercyclical utilities (-1.9%) and telecom services (-1.5%) leading the downside. The two sectors are followed by materials (-1.2%) and consumer staples (-1.2%).

Interest rate-sensitive utilities (-1.9%) are reeling as Treasury yields continue to rise. The yield on the 10-yr note has risen ten basis points to 1.87%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-yr note is higher by seven basis point at 0.90%. This represents a 12-basis point move from the 2-yr yield's April settlement at 0.78%. Comparatively, the 10-yr yield has ticked higher by four basis points since its April settlement at 1.83%.

On the commodities front, WTI crude ended its day lower by 0.3% ($48.15/bbl) while gold continues to sport a loss in electronic trading ($1,264.10/ozt; -12.90; -1.0%).

Today's volume on the NYSE is lighter than what could be expected at this hour. Technical issues at the exchange caused a temporary suspension of trading in 199 symbols. However, those listings remained active as other exchanges including the Nasdaq and BATS stock exchange were unaffected.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The Federal Reserve has released its latest policy minutes, providing some insight into the April meeting.

The minutes indicated that the FOMC opted to leave the door open to a possible fed funds rate hike at the June FOMC meeting. Specifically, the committee will be looking for firming inflation and employment data that points to stronger second-quarter growth. The committee also noted that steady improvements to the labor market could indicate that the pace of economic activity has not deteriorated.

However, several committee members voiced concerns whether the incoming data would send a clear signal about a rate hike in the near term. Furthermore, some policymakers cited concerns about a potential British exit from the E.U.

Equities slipped to new session lows following the release of the minutes. Currently, the S&P 500 trades lower by 0.6%. Meanwhile, the Dollar Index (95.10, +0.55) spiked to a new high following the minutes. The euro/dollar pair has tumbled 0.8% (1.1226) while the dollar/yen pair has jumped 0.7% to 109.85. On the commodities front, gold ended its pit session prior to the release, but fell to the $1,265.30/ozt. level in electronic trading. Treasuries have succumbed to selling pressure as the yield on the 10-yr note rises seven basis points to 1.84%.

1:55 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have pulled back from their session highs as the Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) leads the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.5%).

Five sectors trade in the red with consumer staples (-0.4%), telecom services (-0.3%), materials (-0.2%), and utilities (-0.2%) rounding out the board.

In the health care space (+0.7%), biotechnology displays relative strength, evidenced by the 1.6% gain in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 263.37, +4.20). The ETF remains down 1.7% in May, compared to a gain of 0.1% in the broader health care sector. Elsewhere, Mylan Labs (MYL 42.31, +1.29) has gained 3.2% after the company updated its timetable on its public offer to shareholders of Meda Aktiebolag (MDABY 18.07, +0.25). Mylan plans to complete its offer for the company by the end of the third quarter of 2016.

On the commodities front, gold ended its day lower by 0.2% at $1,274.60/ozt while WTI crude trades higher by 0.9% ($48.75/bbl).

The FOMC minutes from the April meeting will cross the wires at 14:00 ET and the release will be summarized in our next update.

1:35 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices have spiked higher in recent trading as investor await the FOMC minutes due out at the bottom of the hour.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that JPMorgan (JPM 63.70, +2.04), Goldman Sachs (GS 158.84, +4.27) and Apple (AAPL 95.20, +1.71) are outperforming. JPM and Goldman are higher as financials rally ahead of the Fed release. Also helping, JP Morgan announced last night an increase to its quarterly dividend. Apple is trading in line with the entire tech sector after announcing it would establish a Design and Development Accelerator in Bengaluru, India to support engineering talent and accelerate growth in the country's iOS developer community.

Conversely, Wal-Mart (WMT 63.72, -1.38) is the worst-performing Dow component as shares fall under pressure ahead of tomorrow's earnings report amid poor retail sentiment following a light quarterly report from Target (TGT 68.45, -5.16).

For the week, the DJIA is currently up 0.5%, but still down 0.9% this month.

1:05 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades on a higher note at midday as investors look ahead to the release of the FOMC Minutes from the April meeting. Today's trade has featured weakness from the retail sub-group, an uptick in oil, and relative strength from the heavily-weighted financial (+1.8%), technology (+0.9%), and health care (+0.7%) sectors. The Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%) leads the S&P 500 (+0.4%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%).

Equity indices began the session under pressure as global bourses followed U.S. futures lower overnight. The negative bias in equities has been attributed to yesterday's hawkish remarks from a string of FOMC members. Taken as a whole, the group emphasized that a June rate hike remains on the table. Additionally, disappointing guidance from Target (TGT 68.29, -5.32) has weighed on big box names and the already beleaguered retail sub-group.

The major averages shook early weakness as investors shifted their attention towards the latest inventory data from the Department of Energy. The results were mixed with crude oil inventories (+1.31 million barrels; est. -2.83 million) missing the mark while gasoline inventories (-2.49 million barrels; est. -0.15 million) showed a larger-than-expected draw. As a result, traders momentarily stymied the advance in oil. However, the energy component has since recovered and currently trades higher by 1.0% at $48.79/bbl.

The S&P 500 (+0.4%) trades at its best level of the day as the broader market receives support from the heavily-weighted financial (+1.8%), technology (+0.9%), and health care (+0.7%) sectors. Conversely, countercyclical consumer staples (-0.5%), telecom services (-0.4%), and utilities (-0.2%) sport the largest losses.

The economically-sensitive financial sector (+1.8%) displays relative strength as money center banks and investment brokerages respond to increased expectations regarding the number of rate hikes for the year. Currently, the fed funds futures market shows an 18.8% likelihood of a rate hike at the June meeting, compared to yesterday's 15.0% probability. Dow component JPMorgan Chase (JPM 63.72,+ 2.06) has gained 3.3% and tops the price-weighted index. JPMorgan is also benefiting from its decision to raise its stock's dividend to $0.48 per share from $0.44.

In the technology sector (+0.9%), Apple (AAPL 94.92, +1.43) has extended its weekly advance to 4.9%. Meanwhile, the high-beta chipmakers outperform, evidenced by the 2.2% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. In the sub-group ARM Holdings (ARMH 41.22, +1.33) has gained 3.4% after announcing the acquisition of Apical for $350 million. The broader PHLX Semiconductor Index continues to sport a year to date loss of 1.5%, compared to an uptick of 0.6% in the benchmark index over that period.

Disappointing guidance from consumer discretionary (-0.2%) name Target has weighed on big box retailers as Costco (COST 141.08, -2.51) and Wal-Mart (WMT 63.58, -1.52) slip 1.8% and 2.4%, respectively. Elsewhere, Hormel Foods (HRL 35.41, -3.39) has tumbled 8.8% despite reporting a bottom-line beat on in-line revenue.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.72, +0.17) trades higher as the greenback gains against the euro and the yen. The euro has lost 0.3% against the dollar (1.1278) while the dollar/yen pair trades higher by 0.5% at 109.73.

The Treasury complex trades lower with the yield on the 10-yr note rising five basis points to 1.82%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-yr note trades higher by one basis point at 0.85%. This represents a seven basis point move from the 2-yr yield's April settlement at 0.78%. Comparatively, the 10-yr yield has declined one basis points since its April settlement, ticking down from 1.83%.

Today's economic data was limited to the weekly MBA Mortgage Index:

The weekly MBA Mortgage Index showed a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.6% in mortgage applications.

The FOMC Minutes from the April meeting will be released at 14:00 ET.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have ticked lower in recent action as the S&P 500 (+0.2%) trades ahead of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.1%).

Seven sectors trade in the red with industrials (-0.1%) and energy (-0.2%) showing the slimmest losses. The two are followed on the board by utilities (-0.3%) and telecom services (-0.5%).

In the consumer staples sector (-0.8%), big box retailers continue to show steep losses as the group trades lower with consumer discretionary name Target (TGT 67.98, -5.63). Costco (COST 140.88, -2.72) and Wal-Mart (WMT 63.39, -1.70) have lost a respective 2.0% and 2.6% after Target lowered its outlook for the second quarter.

Elsewhere in the group, Hormel Foods (HRL 35.46, -3.34) has declined by 8.6% after reporting a bottom-line beat on in-line revenue. The company also announced that it is acquiring Justin's LLC. However, Hormel's stock sports a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.0. For reference, fellow food product name Tyson Foods (TSN 65.51, -0.99) shows a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.4 while Mondelez International (MDLZ 43.38, +0.13) registers in at 9.3.

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market hovers in the neighborhood of its session high as the S&P 500 (+0.3%) trades two points below its best level of the day.

Five sectors trade in the green with financials (+1.5%), technology (+0.7%), and health care (+0.3%) leading the advance.

In the technology sector (+0.7%), the high-beta chipmakers lead, evidenced by the 2.1% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. The index is rebounding from a 1.7% loss in 2016. Elsewhere, large cap Apple (AAPL 94.66, +1.17) has pulled back from the $95.00 price level, but continues to sport a gain of 1.3%. The stock now trades 5.8% above its 52-week intraday low (89.47). Data storage names continue their recent rebound as Seagate Technology (STX 20.24, +0.60) and Western Digital (WDC 38.33, +1.58) gain 3.1% and 4.3%, respectively.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades higher by 0.7% ($48.65/bbl) after slipping from a new session high ($48.94/bbl). Elsewhere, gold has declined 0.2% to $1,274.60/ozt.

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have ticked higher since the last update as the tech-heavy Nasdaq (+0.5%) continues to lead the S&P 500 (+0.2%).

Six sectors trade in the red as materials (-0.8%) and consumer staples (-0.7%) trade neck-and-neck while telecom services (-0.6%) and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) follow.

In the financial sector (+1.2%) money center banks and investment brokerages outperform as the groups respond to increased speculation that interest rates will rise faster than the market expects. On that note, the fed funds futures market now reflects the probability of an interest rate hike resulting from the June FOMC meeting at 18.8%. This compares to a 15.0% likelihood yesterday and only a 3.8% probability on Monday. Conversely, interest-rate sensitive real estate investment trusts (REITs) demonstrate relative weakness in the space.

The Treasury complex trades on a lower note with the yield on the 10-yr note rising four basis points to 1.81%. Meanwhile, the yield on the 2-yr note trades flat at 0.84%. This represents a six basis point move from the 2-yr yield's April settlement at 0.78%. Comparatively, the 10-yr yield has declined by two basis points since its April settlement, ticking down from 1.83%.

11:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has ticked off a session high as the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) trades ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.1%). The major averages slipped from their highs following the release of the Department of Energy's weekly inventory report.

The report showed that crude inventories rose by 1.31 million barrels compared to the estimated draw of 2.83 million barrels. However, gasoline inventories declined by 2.49 million barrels, which beat estimates of a 0.15 million barrel draw. Currently, WTI crude trades higher by 0.2% ($48.41/bbl) after moving off its session high at $48.66/bbl.

On the leaderboard, energy (UNCH) flirts with its flat line as it trails industrials (+0.2%) and health care (+0.3%). For the year, the commodity-sensitive energy space trades higher by 10.2%. In the group, refiners demonstrate relative strength with Valero Energy (VLO 56.77, +1.52) and Marathon Petroleum (MPC 37.24, +1.17) gaining a respective 2.7% and 3.3%. Elsewhere, oilfield service names underperform with Halliburton (HAL 40.73, -0.44) and Schlumberger (SLB 73.86, -1.01) losing 1.0% and 1.4%, respectively.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index stages an early morning rally, currently up +0.3% around the 94.78 level, weighing on select commodities
Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, are currently down -0.4% at 85.39
Crude oil briefly falls below the previous day's closing price after the release of EIA inventory storage data, quickly recovered and trading at the highs of 2016
June crude oil futures are currently up $0.13 (+0.3%) at $48.43/barrel
Crude oil inventories had a build of +1.31 mln (consensus called for a draw of about -2.7 mln)
Gasoline inventories had a draw of -2.496 mln
Distillate inventories had a draw of -3.17 mln
Contributing factors to the recent rally in oil include:
Goldman Sachs has made bullish comments about WTI crude, suggesting the oil market has gone to a supply deficit situation
Nigerian supply concerns after Nigerian output has been curtailed substantially on unrest there
Venezuelan oil production concerns amid political instability in the region
Oil investor T. Boone Pickens believes supply & demand are now balanced, expects $50-$60/barrel oil prices as early as 2 months from now
API inventory data released yesterday after the bell showed a build of +3.5 mln barrels compared to expectations for a draw of about -3.2 mln barrels
The next OPEC meeting is scheduled to take place on June 2, 2016
June natural gas futures plummet for the fourth session in a row ahead of tomorrow's EIA natural gas inventory data
June natural gas futures are currently down $0.03 (-1.7%) at $2.01/MMBtu
In precious metals, gold sees a steep drop as the dollar strengthens
June gold futures are currently down $5.40 (-0.4%) at $1271.50/oz
Silver sees a modest rally off its lows of the day, still in the red as the dollar rises in morning pit trading
July silver futures are currently down $0.12 (-0.7%) at $17.13/oz
Base metal copper inches lower in morning pit trading, resuming its downtrend
July copper futures are currently down $0.01 (-0.7%) at $2.08/lb

10:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The major indices have inched higher in recent action as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2) trails the S&P 500 (-0.1%).

Seven sectors show losses with countercyclical consumer staples (-1.2%) and utilities (-1.1%) continuing to show weakness. Conversely, heavily-weighted financials (+0.9%), technology (+0.3%), and health care (+0.2%) outperform.

In company specific news, Discovery (DISCA 26.57, -0.88, -1.00) has declined by 3.2% after being downgraded to "Sell" from "Neutral" at Citigroup. The firm noted weakness resulting from the possible exclusion of the media name's content from a potential Hulu sports service.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.76, +0.21) has slipped lower in recent action as commodity-sensitive currencies gain against the greenback. Separately, the euro shows a loss of 0.3% against the dollar (1.1275) while the dollar/yen pair trades higher by 0.5% at 109.65.

The Treasury complex has slipped lower with the yield on the 10-yr note rising three basis points to 1.80%.

9:45 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] The stock market began its day on a mixed note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.3%) tailing the S&P 500 (-0.2%) and the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%).

Eight sectors trade beneath their flat lines with consumer staples (-1.5%), utilities (-1.0%), and consumer discretionary (-0.6%) leading to the downside. The remaining decliners sport losses between 0.1% (energy) and 0.5% (telecom services). Financials (+0.6%) and technology (+0.3%) show the only gains.

In the consumer discretionary space (-0.6%), Target (TGT 66.70, -6.91) demonstrates relative weakness as investors respond to the company's disappointing outlook.

Meanwhile, the high-beta chipmakers outperform, evidenced by the 1.0% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. In the sub-group, ARM Holdings (ARMH 40.90, +1.02) has gained 2.6% after announcing the acquisition of Apical for $350 million. The deal closed on May 17.

On the commodities front, WTI crude trades higher by 0.4% at $48.51/bbl while gold has dipped 0.1% to $1,275.90/ozt.

9:17 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -11.10.

The stock market is on track for a lower open as the S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value. Global bourses demonstrated a negative bias overnight as investors ruminated over yesterday's hawkish commentary from Fed speakers. Taken as a whole, the FOMC Presidents reinforced the fact that June is not off the table in terms of the possibility of a fed funds rate hike. Investors will receive more insight into the FOMC when the Committee releases its minutes from the April meeting at 14:00 ET.

Futures slipped to session lows in recent action as weakness in the retail sub-group weighs on the broader market. Earlier this morning Target (TGT 67.87, -5.74) disappointed investors by lowering its comparable store sales and second-quarter earnings guidance below analysts' estimates. As a result, the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 40.01, -0.71) has declined 1.7%.

Elsewhere on the corporate front, Lowe's (LOW 77.50, +1.43) has trimmed its gain to 1.9% after initially rising as much as 3.0%. The company beat top- and bottom-line estimates for the quarter and offered above-consensus earnings guidance for full-year 2017. Meanwhile, Andersons (ANDE 32.57, +6.63) remains higher by 25.6% after receiving an offer to be acquired by HC2 Holdings (3.99, +0.00) for $37.00 per share. Andersons has previously rejected two offers from HC2.

WTI crude trades flat ($48.29/bbl) ahead of the Department of Energy's weekly report. The inventory data is expected to show that crude stockpiles declined by 2.83 million barrels, compared to last week's reading of a 3.41 million barrel draw. Gasoline reserves are projected to decline by 0.15 million barrels after last week's 1.23 million barrel decline.

8:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -5.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.60.

Equity futures continues to extend their losses with the S&P 500 futures trading six points below fair value.

Asian markets ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note with Japan's Nikkei shedding 0.1% after the release of a better than expected reading of first-quarter GDP (+0.4%; expected +0.1%). The yen retreated modestly, trading lower by 0.2% against the dollar near 109.40.

In economic data:
China's April House Prices +6.2% year-over-year (previous 4.9%)
Japan's Q1 GDP +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.1%; last -0.4%); +1.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.2%; last -1.2%). GDP Price Index +0.9% year-over-year (consensus 1.0%; last 1.5%).
Australia's Q1 Wage Price Index +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%); +2.1% year-over-year (consensus 2.2%; last 2.2%). Separately, MI Leading Index +0.2% month-over-month (last -0.1%)
New Zealand's Q1 Input PPI -1.0% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; last -1.2%) and Output PPI -0.2% quarter-over-quarter (consensus 0.4%; last -0.8%)

---Equity Markets---

Japan's Nikkei shed 0.1%. Four sectors registered gains with energy (+3.4%) and financials (+1.3%) showing relative strength while communications (-0.9%) and utilities (-0.9%) lagged. Suzuki Motor, Nisshin Seifun Group, Dentsu, Isuzu Motors, Sony Financial, and Honda Motor lost between 1.2% and 9.4%. On the upside, Haseko, Alps Electric, Sumitomo Metal Mining, and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial gained between 3.4% and 5.4%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 1.5% amid broad weakness. Tingyi and Belle International both lost near 3.4% while Bank of East Asia, Bank of China Hong Kong, and HSBC surrendered between 1.4% and 2.3%.
China's Shanghai Composite surrendered 1.3%. Pengxin International Mining sank 7.7% while Hareon Solar and Hainan Airlines lost 3.9% and 2.1%, respectively.

Equity indices across Europe began the day in negative territory and most markets continue holding modest losses at this juncture. The British pound has charged higher in recent action, reacting to poll that showed the 'Remain' camp has the edge heading into the Brexit referendum in June. The pound is higher by 0.6% against the dollar at 1.4545.

In economic data:
Eurozone April CPI 0.0% month-over-month (previous 1.2%); -0.2% year-over-year, as expected (previous -0.2%). Core CPI 0.0% month-over-month (previous 1.5%); +0.7% year-over-year, as expected (previous 0.8%)
UK's March Average Earnings Index + Bonus +2.0% (expected 1.7%; last 1.9%), April Claimant Count Change -2,400 (expected 4,300; previous 14,700), and March Unemployment Rate held at 5.1%, as expected

---Equity Markets---

UK's FTSE is lower by 0.7% amid weakness in mining names. Anglo American, Glencore, Antofagasta, Rio Tinto, and BHP Billiton are down between 3.0% and 5.0%. Financials have shown relative strength as Barclays, Lloyds Banking, RBS, and Standard Life are up between 0.8% and 1.7%.
France's CAC has slipped 0.5%. Veolia Environnement is the weakest performer, down 2.7%, while industrials Airbus Group, Safran, Peugeot, and Renault hold losses between 0.5% and 1.3%. Nokia Oyj outperforms, trading higher by 2.0%.
Germany's DAX trades lower by 0.3%. Infineon, Henkel, Fresenius, and Linde are up between 0.7% and 1.5% while Deutsche Bank trades flat. On the downside, RWE has given up 2.0% while Continental, Daimler, and BMW show losses between 0.9% and 1.5%.

8:28 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.20.

Equity futures have ticked lower with the S&P 500 futures trading four points below fair value.

In company specific news, Analog Devices (ADI 54.75, -0.62) has slipped 1.1% after disappointing investors with its earnings guidance for the third quarter. However, the company did beat analysts' estimates for the second quarter on in-line revenue. Big box names are pulling back alongside Target (TGT 67.88, -5.73) after the company lowered earnings and comparable store sales estimates below consensus. Costco (COST 140.40, -3.20) has fallen 2.2% while Wal-Mart (WMT 62.85, -2.25) has fallen 3.5%. Wal-Mart is scheduled to report first-quarter earnings tomorrow morning.

The U.S. Dollar Index (94.78, +0.23) has inched higher in recent action as the greenback extends its gain over the euro and the yen. The euro/dollar pair trades higher by 0.3% (1.1275) after slipping from the 1.1290 level. Separately, the dollar has gained 0.3% against the yen (109.43).

8:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.20.

U.S. equity futures trade lower with the S&P 500 futures hovering three points below fair value. Overnight, global bourses tilted to the downside as markets responded to yesterday's apprehensions regarding a sooner-than-expected increase to the fed funds rate. Investors have adopted a wait-and-see stance ahead of the release of the Federal Open Market Committee's minutes from its April 27 meeting.

In Asia, uncertainty rose regarding further stimulus measures after Japan posted an above-consensus reading of Q1 GDP (+0.4% year-over-year; consensus +0.1%). China continued the trend after China's April House Prices (+6.2% year-over-year; prev. 4.9%) also surprised to the upside. For its part, WTI crude trades on a flat note ($48.37/bbl) ahead of the Department of Energy's weekly inventory report.

The Treasury complex trades lower with the yield on the 10-yr note rising one basis point to 1.78%.

On the economic front, was limited to the 7:00 ET release of the weekly MBA Mortgage Index, which showed a seasonally adjusted decrease of 1.6%. However, the Federal Open Market Committee will release the minutes from the April 27 meeting at 14:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Hormel Foods (HRL 38.65, -0.15): -0.4% after beating bottom-line estimates for the quarter on in-line revenue and announcing the acquisition of Justin's LLC for an undisclosed amount
Lowe's (LOW 76.45, +0.38): +0.5% following the company reporting above-consensus results for the first quarter and guiding earnings estimates for FY17 above-consensus
Staples (SPLS 8.50, +0.22): +2.7% after beating bottom-line estimates on in-line revenue for Q1
JPMorgan Chase (JPM 61.84, +0.18): +0.3% following the company raising its stock's quarterly dividend to $0.48 per share from $0.44 per share
Target (TGT 69.38, -4.23): -5.8% after the company lower its Q2 earnings guidance below-consensus

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended their day lower with Hong Kong's Hang Seng -1.5%, China's Shanghai Composite -1.3%, and Japan's Nikkei -0.1%.
In economic data:
China's April House Prices +6.2% year-over-year (previous 4.9%)
Japan's Q1 GDP +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.1%; last -0.4%); +1.7% year-over-year (consensus 0.2%; last -1.2%). GDP Price Index +0.9% year-over-year (consensus 1.0%; last 1.5%).
Australia's Q1 Wage Price Index +0.4% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%); +2.1% year-over-year (consensus 2.2%; last 2.2%). Separately, MI Leading Index +0.2% month-over-month (last -0.1%)
New Zealand's Q1 Input PPI -1.0% quarter-over-quarter (expected 0.3%; last -1.2%) and Output PPI -0.2% quarter-over-quarter (consensus 0.4%; last -0.8%)
In news:
In Japan, the Nikkei ticked lower by 0.1% after the release of a better than expected reading of first-quarter GDP (+0.4%; expected +0.1%).
The yen retreated modestly, trading lower by 0.2% against the dollar near 109.30.

European indices trade lower with the U.K.'s FTSE -0.6%, France's CAC -0.3%, and Germany's DAX-0.3%.
In economic data:
Eurozone April CPI 0.0% month-over-month (previous 1.2%); -0.2% year-over-year, as expected (previous -0.2%). Core CPI 0.0% month-over-month (previous 1.5%); +0.7% year-over-year, as expected (previous 0.8%)
UK's March Average Earnings Index + Bonus +2.0% (expected 1.7%; last 1.9%), April Claimant Count Change -2,400 (expected 4,300; previous 14,700), and March Unemployment Rate held at 5.1%, as expected
In news:
The British pound has charged higher in recent action, reacting to poll that showed the 'Remain' camp has the edge heading into the Brexit referendum in June.
The pound is higher by 0.6% against the dollar at 1.4550.

5:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.80.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...16645...-8.10...-0.10%. Hang Seng...19826...-292.40...-1.50%.

5:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6147.48...-20.30...-0.30%. DAX...9862.72...-27.50...-0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

http://www.thestrategylab.com
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