TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $6625.00 dollars or +132.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $6625.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=147&t=2180


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=271&t=2883 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The new week got off to a very poor start for the major indices, which experienced steady selling pressure from the opening bell in a trend-down day. Global growth concerns were at the heart of Monday's pullback along with another dastardly performance by the biotechnology sector.

The growth concerns were triggered anew by a caustic research note on the business prospects for commodity producer Glencore (GLCNF 1.07, -0.41), an 8.8% year-over-year decline in China's industrial profits, a disappointing 1.4% monthly decline in pending U.S. home sales for August, and a declaration from International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde that the IMF's forecasts for global growth of 3.3% this year and 3.8% next year are no longer realistic due principally to the weakness in emerging markets.

These factors, and an allegation from famed investor Carl Icahn that there could be another financial catastrophe looming with the persistence of the Federal Reserve's policy rate near the zero bound, cast a pall on investor sentiment that hung over the capital markets all day.

To that end, oil (-2.7% to $44.47 per barrel) and other commodity prices got knocked back noticeably, high-yield bond prices continued to weaken, cyclical sectors like the energy (-3.6%), materials (-3.2%), and consumer discretionary (-2.9%) sectors were among the hardest hit areas, and Treasuries rallied in a flight-to-safety bid.

In turn, investors sought downside protection, evidenced by the 17% surge in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 27.58, +3.96), and generally shied away from buying much of anything in the equity market.

All ten sectors finished lower. The health care sector (-3.8%) fared the worst as price control concerns continued to percolate on the back of reports that lawmakers in Washington are working to get a subpoena to obtain documents from Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX 166.50, -32.97) that discuss big price increases for two heart drugs.

That news compounded the recent selling pressure in the biotech group, which had to contend with the double whammy of valuation concerns. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 290.61, -19.63) dropped 6.3% and is now down 27.5% from its July high.

The weakness in the biotech space took a heavy toll on the Nasdaq Composite (-3.0%) and Russell 2000 (-2.9%). Separately, the weight of large losses in market darlings Facebook (FB 89.21, -3.56), Amazon.com (AMZN 504.06, -20.19), Netflix (NFLX 99.47, -2.77), and Google (GOOG 594.89, -17.08) -- the so-called "FANG" stocks -- took a big bite out of the Nasdaq and the broader market.

Today's negative disposition was cemented in the fact that Apple (AAPL 112.44, -2.27) couldn't escape the selling pressure even though it announced record sales of more than 13 million units of its iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus just three days after launch.

The Personal Income and Spending report for August was decent, showing a 0.3% increase in income (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) and a 0.4% jump in spending (Briefing.com +0.3%) on top of modest upward revisions to July's data for both series. The report also revealed subdued inflation pressures, which were painted by a miniscule 0.3% year-over-year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) and a modest 1.3% year-over-year increase excluding food and energy.

The latter news also helped underpin the Treasury market and particularly the back end of the curve. The 10-yr note yield dropped seven basis points to 2.09%.

There were two Fed officials who gave speeches today during market hours -- New York Fed President Dudley and Chicago Fed President Evans. Both men are voting members on the 2015 Federal Open Market Committee, yet their somewhat opposing views failed to alter today's downtrend. To wit, stocks traded lower after both presentations in which Mr. Dudley said he thinks the Fed should be able to raise rates before the end of the year and Mr. Evans said a later liftoff would create better positioning for economic challenges.

The major indices closed just off their worst levels of the day on heavy volume. Reflecting the entrenched negative bias, decliners led advancers by nearly a 9-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a nearly 6-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

3:45 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities sold off today and held losses. Commodities, as measured by the Bloomberg Commodity Index, extended losses from this morning and are now -1.3%
Nov crude oil finished today's session -2.7% at $44.47/barrel. In other energy, Nov nat gas rose +1.5% to $2.67/MMBtu
Metals lost steam today, led by silver
Dec silver closed up today's pit session -3.6% at $15.08/oz
Dec gold fell -1.2% to end at $1131.40/oz, while Dec copper ended -1.3% at $2.28/lb.

3:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Heading into the final hour the major indices are off their lows but have been unable to establish a higher high to break the downtrend. That could set things up for another extension to new lows. We'll just have to wait and see.

What has been seen so far today has been a broad-based selloff that has ensnared most stocks, including the market darlings of Facebook (FB 88.88, -3.89), Amazon.com (AMZN 499.16, -25.09), Netflix (NFLX 98.81, -3.43), and Google (GOOG 592.70, -19.27) -- the so-called "FANG" stocks.

Their weakness has helped drive the Nasdaq down 3.0% and has contributed to the reluctance to buy into today's weakness.

Worries about further downside have been evident in the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 27.30, +3.68), which has surged 15.6% today, leaving it up 50% quarter-to-date.

2:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Slowly but surely the major indices keep trending lower amid a dearth of leadership and growing concerns about the global economy.

It doesn't appear that monetary policy considerations today are having much to do with things. To that end, New York Fed President Dudley said he expects the Fed should be able to raise rates before the end of the year and the market traded down. Conversely, Chicago Fed President Evans said he thinks a later liftoff positions the economy better for challenges and the market still traded lower after his remarks. Both men are voting members on the 2015 Federal Open Market Committee.

Today has been one of those days where a selling trend has remained intact and where buyers have been slow to step up to the plate. It might be related in part to some "window un-dressing" at the end of the quarter, but whatever it is, the negative bias has been unmistakable to this point.

The bloodletting in the biotech space has been an influential drag. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 288.17, -22.07) is down another 7.1% today and is in a bear market of its own. Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX 168.50, -30.97) has been at the center of today's selling interest in the health care sector (-4.4%) as reports suggest lawmakers are aiming to secure a subpoena that will force the company to turn over documents that discuss big price increases the company enacted for two heart drugs.

2:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The trend hasn't changed. The major indices continue to drift lower and, subsequently, continue to set new session lows.

A bit of an upward surprise in August personal spending gives hope for future consumption growth.

Personal income increased 0.3% in August after increasing an upwardly revised 0.5% (from 0.4%) in July. The Briefing.com Consensus expected personal income to increase 0.4%.

Personal spending rose 0.4% for a second consecutive month in August following a small upward revision (from 0.3%) to the July data. The consensus expected spending to increase 0.3%.

The big news in August was the modest decrease in the personal savings rate, from 4.7% to 4.6%. A continued shift toward lower savings would be a bonus for consumption growth.

A disappointing August retail sales report suggested that consumers were again holding off on spending in order to keep a higher savings rate. While goods spending growth did slow in August to 0.4% after increasing 0.7% in July, the softness was offset by an unexpectedly strong 0.5% increase in services spending.

1:30 pm:
Related Quotes

[BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices continue to be pressured on the downside, setting new session lows in recent trade.

A look inside the Dow Jones Industrial Average shows that UnitedHealth Group (UNH 111.79, -4.58), Goldman Sachs (GS 173.12, -6.71), and Visa (V 68.44, -2.25) are underperforming. UNH is the worst performing Dow component amid continued weakness in the health care sector while Goldman and its finance peers slump on a decline in treasury yields.

Conversely, Intel (INTC 28.96, +0.15) is the best-performing Dow component as it and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 91.07, +0.07) display impressive strength as the only Dow gainers on the day.

With today's decline, the DJIA is now down almost 3% this month, and 10% this year.

1:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Thus far, it has been a very disappointing day for the bulls as the major indices have trended lower since the opening bell, plagued by global growth concerns predominately and valuation concerns generally.

Those concerns have manifested themselves in the sharp selling of cyclical sectors and the continued unraveling of the biotechnology sector. At this juncture, there isn't anything that is working.

Every sector is down for the day. The health care (-3.9%) and materials (-2.9%) sectors are the worst-performing areas and five of the ten economic sectors are down at least 2.0%. The best-performing area has been the utilities sector, which is down 0.3%.

The steady selling pressure has dropped the S&P 500 below a number of technical support levels and it is currently testing its August 24 closing level of 1893.21, the penetration of which on a closing basis will feed concerns about a retest of the August 25 low at 1867.08.

Today's broad-based weakness follows on the heels of a report that industrial profits in China declined 8.8% year-over-year in August and an acknowledgment from International Monetary Fund (IMF) head Christine Lagarde that the IMF's global growth forecasts of 3.3% this year and 3.8% next year are no longer realistic.

Her contention and a weak showing from European markets overshadowed a decent Personal Income and Spending report for August out of the U.S, which showed a 0.3% jump in income (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) and a 0.4% increase in spending (Briefing.com consensus +0.3%).

The same report also showed no real inflation pressure. To that end, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) was up just 0.3% year-over-year while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, was up just 1.3% and falling well short of the Fed's 2.0% inflation target.

Separately, the Pending Home Sales Index for August proved to be a disappointment, showing a 1.4% decline versus the Briefing.com consensus estimate, which called for a 0.5% increase.

The mixed data coupled with the poor showing from equity markets, a notable slide in commodity prices, and a warning from famed investor Carl Icahn that the persistence of the Fed's low policy rate could potentially lead to another financial catastrophe have fostered a flight-to-safety bid in the Treasury market. Gains have been registered across the curve, but have been concentrated at the back end, which has greater sensitivity to the growth/inflation outlook.

Oil and copper prices are down 2.8% and 1.5%, respectively, to $44.43 per barrel and $2.25 per pound.

In other developments, Williams Cos. (WMB 37.51, -4.09) agreed to be acquired by Energy transfer Corp., an affiliate of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE 20.75, -2.49), in a deal with an enterprise value of $37.7 billion and an implied price of $43.50 per WMB share. Investors don't look all that impressed given the approximate 10% decline in both stocks.

Looking elsewhere, Intel (INTC 28.90, +0.09) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 91.44, +0.44) are the only two Dow components showing a gain at this time.

There really aren't many stocks overall showing a gain. Decliners lead advancers by a 7-to-1 margin at the NYSE and a 5-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

12:30 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] The opening bell rang at 9:30 a.m. ET and it has been pretty much a trend-down day ever since that has seen the S&P 500 slice through a number of technical support levels.

The 1900 level gave way about an hour ago and now the S&P 500 is testing an important support zone in the 1893 area, which marks the closing level on August 24 (1893.21). A violation there would raise the market's antennae for a retest of the August 25 low of 1867.08.

So far, support is holding, yet it can understandably be labeled as tenuous seeing the all ten sectors are showing a loss at this juncture and five sectors are down at least 2.0% -- materials (-3.0%), health care (-2.7%), energy (-2.7%), consumer discretionary (-2.1%), and financials (-2.0%).

Separately, 28 out of the 30 Dow components are registering a loss at this time. The only two winners are Intel (INTC 28.90, +0.09) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 91.41, +0.41)

12:00 pm:

[BRIEFING.COM] Still no hurry up effort to wage a rebound try as the major indices continue to plumb their lows for the day.

Strikingly, oil prices have rolled over again. They are currently down 2.4% at $44.62 per barrel. The renewed selling there has pressured the broader market, especially since an earlier recovery try didn't succeed much in lifting the broader market.

The energy sector (-2.6%) is down big today, bringing its quarter-to-date loss to a whopping 19.2%.

The only sector that has not lost ground in the third quarter has been the utilities sector (+3.0%), which has lived up to its reputation for exhibiting relative strength in volatile (and negative) markets. In comparison, the S&P 500 is down 8.1% quarter-to-date.

11:30 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Nine out of ten economic sectors were showing a loss for the session. Now it is ten out of ten sectors as the utilities sector (-0.5%) has joined the pack after sporting modest gains for most of the day.

The only real big mover of the day so far, aside from the Treasury market, has been CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 25.62, +2.00). It is up 8.5% as investors hedge for downside protection.

On a related note, famed investor Carl Icahn indicated to CNBC that he is "more hedged now than he has been in years." That declaration was made following a tease of a video he produced which touches on the potential for another financial catastrophe to unfold given the persistence of interest rates near the zero bound.

Mr. Icahn's view has contributed to the negative sentiment that is weighing on today's market, which is at new lows for the session that have the S&P 500 below the 1900 level.

10:55 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] Buyers continue to be a reluctant bunch as the major indices trade near their lows for the day. Losses have been extended in just about every sector.

The materials sector (-2.4%) remains the worst-performing group with falling commodity prices contributing to the slump. Alcoa (AA 9.47, +0.40) is bucking the sector trend, however, after announcing a plan to separate into two independent, publicly-traded companies.

Interestingly, crude oil futures (-1.1%) at $45.21/bbl) have cut their losses roughly in half, yet the energy sector (-1.9%%) has been slow to respond. Market participants will keep a close eye on oil's recovery effort and whether it can help turn the tide of negative sentiment that is weighing heavily on the broader market.

Notwithstanding the earlier contention from New York Fed President Dudley that he thinks the Fed will be able to raise rate before the end of the year, the 2-yr note yield has dipped two basis points to 0.68% in a flight-to-safety bid that has shown up across the yield curve.

10:00 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] A half-hearted recovery try from the opening weakness was greeted with renewed selling interest that carried the major indices to new session lows in the last 15 minutes, which has the S&P 500 seemingly on a glide path to challenge the 1900 level if it can't hold the line at 1910/1908.

The weakness is broad-based and has been accented by notable losses in some of the market's most influential areas, namely health care (-1.9%), energy (-1.5%), and financials (-1.1%).

Remarkably, Apple (AAPL 112.81, -1.90) has not been exempt from the early selling interest despite the company's indication that iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus sales exceeded 13 million units over the weekend, marking a new record for the company.

As losses in the equity market have mounted, the Treasury market has regained some footing. The 10-yr note yield has slipped three basis points to 2.13%.

The Pending Home Sales report at the top of the hour showed a 1.4% decline in pending home sales for August (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%; prior +0.5%).

9:40 am:

[BRIEFING.COM] There's a lot of red on stock monitors to begin the day. Every sector is down at the moment with the exception of the defensive-oriented utilities sector (+0.1%).

Reflecting the worries about global economic growth, the materials (-1.3%) and energy (-1.1%) sectors are among the weakest links in the early going. The weakest link, however, is the health care sector (-1.4%), which continues to feel the weight of ongoing selling pressure in the biotech space.

The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 304.36, -5.88), which has fallen 22% from its July high, is down another 1.9% off the open.

9:07 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.80.

The stage remains set for a weaker open, although the tide of negative sentiment seen earlier has ebbed following a report from Apple (AAPL) that it had a record weekend of sales of its new iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus models. Specifically, Apple said it sold more than 13 million units.

That news and a solid, if not spectacular, Personal Income and Spending report for August helped the futures market recover some lost ground in overnight action.

The Pending Home Sales report for August (Briefing.com consensus +0.5%; prior +0.5%) will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET.

In other developments, New York Fed President Dudley said in a speech this morning that he remains data dependent, but that it his expectation that rates can be raised later this year.

Oil prices (-2.0% to $44.79/bbl) are on the defensive and the yield on the 10-yr note is down one basis point to 2.15% after hitting 2.12% earlier.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -12.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -25.80. August personal income increased 0.3% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 0.4%. Meanwhile, personal spending rose 0.4% while the consensus expected a reading of 0.3%. Core PCE prices rose 0.1% while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%.

8:11 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -14.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -27.50.

The futures market is pointing to a weak open for the U.S. stock market. Currently, the S&P futures are about 0.6% below fair value. The negative disposition is a byproduct of weak sentiment following Friday's disappointing finish and ongoing concerns about the state of the global economy, which are hitting commodity prices in early action.

Those worries about growth and a general risk-off approach at this point have triggered buying interest in sovereign bond markets. The yield on the German bund has dropped five basis points to 0.60% while the yield on the 10-yr note has dropped four basis points to 2.12%.

On the economic front, August Personal Income, Personal Spending and Core PCE data will be released at 8:30 ET while August Pending Home Sales will be announced at 10:00 ET.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Alcoa (AA 9.07): Trading up 6.3% following company's announcement that it plans to split into two independent, publicly-traded companies.
Williams Cos. (WMB 41.60): Down 1.4% in wake of news that it will be acquired by Energy Transfer Corp, an affiliate of Energy Transfer Equity (ETE 23.24), in a $37.7 billion deal with an implied buyout price of $43.50 per share.
Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A 47.30): Down 1.7% on weak oil prices and news that it has ceased further exploration of its Burger J well in Alaska and will cease further exploration activity in offshore Alaska for the foreseeable future.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. Japan's Nikkei -1.3%; China's Shanghai Composite +0.3%; Hong Kong's Hang Seng was closed for the day following the Mid-Autumn Festival
In economic data:
China's industrial profits -8.8% year-over-year (prior -2.9%)
In news:
Reports pointed to prospect of China providing more policy stimulus in the fourth quarter
Major European indices are mostly lower. Germany's DAX Index -1.7%; UK's FTSE 100 -1.6%; France's CAC 40 -2.4%
In economic data:
Italy's September Consumer Confidence 112.7 (expected 108.7; previous 109.3) and September Business Confidence 104.2 (consensus 102.7; last 102.7)
Among news of note:
Investec issued a caustic note suggesting Glencore's equity value could be wiped out if commodity prices remain where they are and the company doesn't restructure
Audi said 2.1 million of its cars worldwide were fitted with "defeat devices"

7:36 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17645.11...-235.40...-1.30%. Hang Seng...Holiday.........

7:36 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6023.66...-85.40...-1.40%. DAX...9558.12...-130.40...-1.40%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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