TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $1,040.00 dollars or +10.40 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $5,287.50 dollars or +105.75 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $6,327.50 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=139&t=1978


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=255&t=2625

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

4:20 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 began the first full week of 2015 with a slide below its 50-day moving average (2045) and found itself that level once again on Friday. The benchmark index settled just below the 50-day average, losing 0.8% to lock in a 0.6% decline for the week while the Nasdaq (-0.7%) outperformed slightly, falling 0.5% for the week.

Friday's affair was a bit of a roller coaster with the first downswing coming in the early morning hours when futures retreated in reaction to a Bloomberg report indicating the European Central Bank remains unsure of a format for its QE program. The news rattled U.S. futures and markets in Europe considering a QE announcement in two weeks was all but priced in.

The early morning slip was followed by a swift recovery of the losses when the December Nonfarm Payrolls report beat expectations (252K; Briefing.com consensus 245K) on the headline level. The resulting rebound rally was short-lived, fading as soon as the cash market opened and, we would contend, as soon as participants finished reading the report.

Specifically, the lack of payroll growth took the shine off what would have been a decent report. Hourly wages declined 0.2% and November growth was slashed in half (to +0.2% from +0.4%). Once the realization that without payroll growth there can be no consumption growth sank in, equities retreated. In addition to pressuring stocks, dimming growth prospects weighed on crude oil ($48.40/bbl, -$0.41) while boosting Treasuries. The benchmark 10-yr yield fell four basis points to 1.97% after bouncing off the 1.95% level.

Cyclical sectors bore the brunt of today's losses with four of six growth-oriented groups ending in-line with or behind the broader market. Notably, the implications stemming from the absence of wage growth kept financials (-1.3%) and consumer discretionary shares (-1.1%) behind the broader market throughout the session.

The financial sector finished at the bottom of the barrel while the discretionary sector ended just above with retailers fueling the weakness. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 95.25, -1.74) lost 1.8%. However, the widespread selling in retail stocks masked the relative strength among homebuilders. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.61, +0.07) gained 0.3%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, industrials (-1.1%) finished among the laggards while energy (-0.8%), materials (-0.5%), and technology (-0.3%) outperformed.

The relative strength of the technology sector prevented the S&P 500 from revisiting its morning low. Several large cap names like Apple (AAPL 112.01, +0.12), Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.79, +0.28), IBM (IBM 159.11, +0.69), and Oracle (ORCL 43.39, -0.02) held their own while chipmakers eked out gains with the PHLX Semiconductor Index adding 0.1%.

Similar to chipmakers, the high-beta biotechnology group spent the day ahead of the broader market. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 313.32, -1.12) shed 0.4%, helping the Nasdaq Composite finish a bit ahead of the broader market.

Although biotechnology was able to underpin the Nasdaq, the group failed to lift the health care sector (-0.8%) ahead of the broader market as large cap components weighed.

Outside of healthcare, the remaining countercyclical groups ended near the broader market with consumer staples, telecom services, and utilities losing between 0.7% and 0.8%.

Today's participation was below average with roughly 713 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data included Nonfarm Payrolls and Wholesale Inventories:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 in December after adding an upwardly revised 353,000 (from 321,000) in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 245,000
The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in December from 5.8% in November (consensus 5.7%), but that resulted from a large decline in labor force
Average hourly wages in December contracted 0.2% after increasing a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in November
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November after increasing an upwardly revised 0.6% (from 0.4%) in October while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
Durable wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November, up from a 0.1% increase in October. Large gains in professional equipment (1.3%), machinery (0.9%), and automotive (0.6%) offset declines in lumber (-0.5%) and furniture (-0.3%)
Nondurable wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in November, down from a 1.5% increase in October. Low oil prices pushed petroleum inventories down 3.7%. That loss was more-than-offset by a 5.7% increase in farm product inventories

Monday's session will be free of economic data.

Dow Jones Industrial Average -0.5% YTD
S&P 500 -0.7% YTD
Nasdaq Composite -0.7% YTD
Russell 2000 -1.6% YTD

Week in Review: S&P 500 Bouncing Off Technical Levels

The stock market began the first full week of 2015 on a cautious note. The S&P 500 lost 1.8% while the Russell 2000 (-1.3%) outperformed. Stocks began sliding at the sound of the opening bell amid weakness in Europe that was brought on by renewed fears of a potential Greek exit from the eurozone. With the January 25 Greek snap elections fast approaching, voices out of Germany have tried to calm investors, but those calls have fallen on deaf ears so far. Over the weekend, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that a Greek exit from the eurozone would be manageable, but the comments did not stop the euro from falling below the 1.1900 level against the dollar immediately after the foreign exchange market opened on Sunday evening. Interestingly, the dollar rallied against the euro, but surrendered almost 100 pips to the yen (119.60), suggesting a sense of caution was present among foreign exchange traders.

Equity indices ended the Tuesday session in the red with the Russell 2000 (-1.7%) pacing the retreat. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lost 0.9% with eight sectors registering losses. The stock market held up relatively well through the first hour of action, but the return of some recent concerns pressured cyclical sectors and the broader market into negative territory. Specifically, the S&P 500 reversed from its session high after The Financial Times reported, citing Oxford Economics research, that Syriza party in Greece is on track to win enough votes that would translate into a mandate to push back against austerity policies imposed by the European Union. In addition to hitting U.S. stocks, the news knocked European markets off their highs and set a fire under U.S. Treasuries. The resulting safe-haven flows underpinned Treasuries, sending the benchmark 10-yr yield lower by seven basis points to 1.96% after marking a low just under the 1.89% level.

The major averages rebounded from their recent swoon on Wednesday with the S&P 500 (+1.2%) posting its first gain in six sessions. The benchmark index settled just behind the Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+1.2%) and Russell 2000 (+1.2%) ended in-line with the S&P 500. The midweek advance occurred in two stages with the market climbing out of the gate amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 notched its morning high 30 minutes after the opening bell, but returned to its opening level two hours after the start of the session. Equity indices then charged to new highs after Bloomberg reported that German officials are expected to show willingness to restructure Greek debt. The report said that a debt write-off is not being discussed, but repayment terms may be eased. Stocks caught a second wind following the Bloomberg report and spent the remainder of the session near their afternoon highs, all but ignoring the FOMC minutes from the December meeting. The lack of reaction was understandable, considering the document did not introduce anything 'new' in particular.

The S&P 500 spiked 1.7% on Thursday, continuing its rebound that began on Wednesday when the index found support at its 100-day moving average (2005). The benchmark index surged past its 50-day moving average (2044) on Thursday and returned to unchanged for the year. Equity indices didn't waste any time after the prior day's rebound, extending higher in the futures market in reaction to evening comments made by Chicago Fed President, and more importantly, 2015 FOMC voting member Charles Evans. Presenting at the University of Chicago, Mr. Evans reiterated his belief that due to low inflation, the Fed should not rush to raise rates, adding for good measure that such move would be a "catastrophe." Interestingly, Fed insider Jon Hilsenrath of the Wall Street Journal wrote that the Fed could indeed raise rates soon if it is believed that low yields at the long end of the curve reflect an influx of capital into dollar-denominated assets, which could spark a surge in prices. Mr. Hilsenrath added that this was the view espoused by NY Fed President and this year's voting member William Dudley, who argued a similar situation presented itself in 2000s, leading to the housing bubble. The signs of an impending tug-of-war at the Fed over when to pull away the punchbowl did not stop the stock market from spiking out of the gate and adding to its advance in afternoon action. Meanwhile, Treasuries retreated, sending the 10-yr yield higher by six basis points to 2.01%.

3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities ended the day mixed
WTI lost some steam in afternoon action and finished with a modest loss
Nat gas held on to a little upside, closing 2 cents higher at $2.695/MMBtu
Feb gold rallied today and finished with a $7.70 gain at $1216.20/oz.
Mar silver, meanwhile, rose 4 cents to $16.41/oz

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain near their recent levels going into the last hour of action. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.7% with the financial sector (-1.2%) representing the weakest performer. The second-largest sector has been a big drag on the market, but the S&P 500 has been held above its session low by the relative strength in the largest sector by weight-technology (-0.2%).

Digging deeper into the sector reveals outperformance among large cap names like Apple (AAPL 112.14, +0.25), Cisco Systems (CSCO 28.03, +0.52), Oracle (ORCL 43.49, +0.08), and Intel (INTC 36.89, +0.20).

However, the outperformance of technology may not be able to save the benchmark index from finishing with a sizable loss considering other large sectors like consumer discretionary (-1.1%), industrials (-1.1%), and energy (-0.8%) continue trading behind the broader market.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.7%) continues struggling with its 50-day moving average (2045), which resides just below the current level. Meanwhile, biotechnology is trying to make a sustained move into the green with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 314.54, +0.10) grappling with its flat line.

Interestingly, the relative strength of biotechnology has not been able to lift the overall health care sector (-0.6%) as large cap names remain weak, leaving the sector just a step ahead of the broader market. However, the relative strength of biotech has helped the Nasdaq Composite (-0.5%) spend the day ahead of the broader market. Similarly, high-beta chipmakers outperform with the PHLX Semiconductor Index trading lower by 0.2%, which has helped the technology sector (-0.3%) stay ahead of the S&P 500.

The relative strength of high-beta groups in the face of broad market weakness could prove to be a supportive factor in the home stretch of the session, but if the benchmark index loses its battle with the 50-day average, these groups will suffer accordingly.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 hovers about three points above its 50-day moving average.

At first blush, the employment report seemingly looks positive. Payrolls exceeded expectations and upward revisions to previous months showcase a strengthening labor market. Yet, those numbers are actually masking what we would determine as a decidedly weak report.

The key is wage growth. With strong payroll growth and a downward-moving unemployment rate, the labor market would seem to be gather strength. But the average hourly wages in December actually contracted, falling 0.2% after increasing a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in November.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major US indices continue to trade noticeably lower with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.9%.

Following yesterday's strong gains, all S&P sectors remain in the red, led by energy (-1.1%). WTI crude oil futures have dropped 2.15% on the day to $47.74/bbl. Futures prices for WTI crude have not been up for two consecutive days since late November. In related news, Baker Hughes (BHI 56.45, -0.57) released its weekly rig count which demonstrated a further reduction in US rigs, as they declined by 61 to 1,750.

Richmond Fed President Lacker is currently speaking at the Virginia Chamber of Commerce on the economic outlook. Early headlines quoted the official as saying he sees only tentative evidence of wage growth and is leaning toward higher growth in 2015. Mr. Lacker is a 2015 FOMC voter.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market trades lower across the board at midday with the S&P 500 down 0.8%. The benchmark index trades just ahead of the Dow (-0.9%), but behind the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%).

Equity investors have endured whipsaw action that began with overnight weakness in the futures market. The selling stemmed from caution in Europe amid reports the European Central Bank has yet to decide on a format for its QE program. However, futures surged back to unchanged after the December Nonfarm Payrolls report indicated that payrolls grew by 252,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 245,000.

Although the headline figure beat expectations and stirred up buying interest, wage growth was unimpressive, contracting 0.2% in December after increasing a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in November. Once that nuance sank in, risk tolerance took a hit while Treasuries rallied. The 10-yr note sits near its low with the benchmark yield down six basis points at 1.96%.

As for equities, all ten sectors hold midday losses with four of six cyclical groups trailing the broader market, suggesting continued presence of selling pressure as the S&P 500 battles with its 50-day moving average (2045).

The energy sector (-1.1%) is the weakest performer with crude oil dropping near its worst level of the month. WTI Crude trades lower by 2.2% at $47.72/bbl after marking a session low in the $47.25/bbl area. The dollar-denominated commodity has fallen even though the Dollar Index trades lower by 0.4% with the yen holding a 100-pip gain against the greenback.

Elsewhere, the financial sector (-1.1%) sports a comparable decline to energy due to weaker growth prospects stemming from the lack of wage growth. Similarly, the consumer discretionary space (-0.9%) has underperformed for the same reason. Retail stocks have shown broad-based weakness with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 95.46, -1.53) down 1.6% at midday. However, retailers have masked the outperformance of homebuilders, resulting from lower yields. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.72, +0.18) is higher by 0.7% at midday.

Countercyclical sectors have only fared a bit better than their growth-sensitive counterparts, but most notably, the heavily-weighted health care sector (-0.7%) trades just ahead of the broader market. Biotechnology weighed in the early going, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 313.31, -1.13) has narrowed its loss to 0.4%.

Economic data included Nonfarm Payrolls and Wholesale Inventories:

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 252,000 in December after adding an upwardly revised 353,000 (from 321,000) in November while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 245,000
The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% in December from 5.8% in November (consensus 5.7%), but that resulted from a large decline in labor force
Average hourly wages in December contracted 0.2% after increasing a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in November
Wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November after increasing an upwardly revised 0.6% (from 0.4%) in October while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 0.3%
Durable wholesale inventories increased 0.8% in November, up from a 0.1% increase in October. Large gains in professional equipment (1.3%), machinery (0.9%), and automotive (0.6%) offset declines in lumber (-0.5%) and furniture (-0.3%)
Nondurable wholesale inventories increased 0.7% in November, down from a 1.5% increase in October. Low oil prices pushed petroleum inventories down 3.7%. That loss was more-than-offset by a 5.7% increase in farm product inventories

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have continued their rebound that has placed the S&P 500 (-0.7%) roughly in the middle of its trading range. At this juncture, the index is back above its 50-day moving average (2045), which could end up as an area of support or resistance when the session ends. In fact, the S&P 500 has spent the entire week flirting with that technical level.

On Monday, the S&P 500 tumbled below its 50-day average and continued retreating on Tuesday when the 100-day average (2006) proved to be an area of short-term support. The benchmark index rocketed off that level on Wednesday and continued its surge on Thursday, spiking back above the 50-day average, where the index finds itself once again today.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have pulled away from their lows after spending the first two hours of the session in a steady retreat. The S&P 500 remains lower by 0.8% with four of six cyclical sectors showing relative weakness.

Although the market has been able to climb almost ten points above its session low, the continued underperformance among growth-sensitive sectors presents a headwind for the market. The top-weighted technology sector (-0.6%) trades just ahead, but the second and fourth largest sectors-financials (-1.0%) and consumer discretionary (-0.9%)-remain in a position of relative weakness. Retail stocks have contributed to the underperformance of discretionary shares with the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 95.50, -1.49) trading lower by 1.5%.

The slight rebound in stocks has been accompanied by a modest downtick in Treasuries, but the 10-yr note remains near its high with the benchmark yield at 1.96%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Continued selling pressure has forced the S&P 500 (-1.1%) back below its 50-day moving average (2045) just one day after the index reclaimed that level.

The equity market has slid to new lows alongside crude oil, which is now down 2.8% at $47.45/bbl. This puts the commodity just above its 2015 low in the $46.85/bbl area. Meanwhile, the energy sector (-1.6%) is the weakest performing group at this juncture.

Over on the countercyclical side, the health care sector (-1.1%) trades in-line with the market while other defensively-oriented groups sport losses between 0.7% and 0.9%.

Although the market has suffered from broad weakness, homebuilders have been able to buck the trend. The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 26.60, +0.06) is higher by 0.2%, with the group likely supported by lower interest rates. The 10-yr yield is lower by six basis points at 1.95%.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have extended their losses amid broad-based weakness. The S&P 500 is lower by 0.7% with all ten sectors trading in the red. Of the ten sectors, five trail the broader market, suggesting selling pressure remains palpable.

Financials (-0.9%) and consumer discretionary (-0.9%) have dropped to the bottom of the leaderboard, while industrials (-0.8%) and energy (-0.8%) have not fared much better. The technology sector trades ahead of the remaining cyclical groups, but the top-weighted sector is still down 0.7%.

A sense of caution is also present in the commodity market with crude oil falling 1.4% to $48.11/bbl.

Treasuries have jumped back into the neighborhood of their highs, pressuring the 10-yr yield to 1.97% (-4 bps).

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Commodities are trading higher overall today, as measured by the CRB Index, which is +0.1%
In recent activity, precious metals rallied to new highs on the day.
In the energy space, oil and natural gas futures are mixed with oil prices sliding lower and natural gas holding a modest gain
Feb crude oil rose as high as $49.36/barrel in overnight trade, but just hit a new LoD at $48.15/barrel at 10am EST.
Feb crude is now -0.7% at $48.44/barrel. Feb nat gas is +1.2% at $2.96/MMBtu
Precious metals rallied to new highs for today in recent trade.
Feb gold is now +0.9% at $1218.60/oz, while Mar silver is +1.1% at $16.56/oz

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has extended its decline to 0.4% while the Nasdaq (-0.2%) trades a bit ahead.

Just released, November wholesale inventories rose 0.8%, while the Briefing.com consensus expected an uptick of 0.3%. Today's report followed last month's revised increase of 0.6% (from 0.4%).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the Friday session with slim gains before sliding into the red. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.1% with only three sectors showing early gains. Materials (+0.2%), technology (+0.1%), and utilities (+0.3%) have displayed some early strength while consumer discretionary (-0.6%), energy (-0.4%), and health care (-0.4%) lag.

Notably, the health care sector has been pressured by biotechnology after the group struggled to keep pace with the market yesterday. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 312.48, -1.96) is lower by 0.6%.

Treasuries have continued inching higher after failing to turn negative after the jobs report. The 10-yr yield is lower by a basis point at 2.01%.

The Wholesale Inventories report for November (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.20. The stock market is on track for a slightly higher open thanks to a recent boost provided by a better than expected Nonfarm Payrolls report for December. According to the report, payrolls grew by 252,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase of 245,000. The Unemployment Rate fell to 5.6% from 5.8% (consensus 5.7%). Despite positive looking headline figures, wage growth was unimpressive, contracting 0.2% in December after increasing a downwardly revised 0.2% (from 0.4%) in November.

That being said, equity futures surged in reaction to the news, erasing overnight losses that were brought on by reports of continued indecision at the ECB with regards to the format of its QE program. Conversely, payroll news from the U.S. helped markets in Europe spike off their lows, but European indices have stayed out of positive territory for the time being.

More data remains on today's schedule with the November Wholesale Inventories (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) set to be released at 10:00 ET.

Treasuries have surrendered most of their overnight gains during the past hour, returning the 10-yr yield to 2.01% (-1 bps).

8:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.70. The S&P 500 futures trade two points above fair value.

Markets across Asia finished the week on an upbeat note while China's Shanghai Composite (-0.2%) underperformed.

In economic data:
China's CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 1.5% year-over-year, as expected. Separately, PPI fell 3.3% year-over-year (expected -3.1%; previous -2.7%), representing the 34th consecutive negative reading
Japan's Leading Index fell to 103.8 from 104.5 (consensus 104.9)
Australia's Retail Sales ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 0.4%)

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Japan's Nikkei added 0.2% to settle just above its session low. Exporters Mazda Motor and Pioneer weighed, falling close to 4.0% apiece. Kawasaki Heavy Industries ended among the leaders, up 2.6%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng also retreated into the close, narrowing its gain to 0.4%. Heavyweights CNOOC and China Mobile both gained near 1.5%. Casino names retreated with Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China falling 2.1% and 0.9%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite slipped 0.2% into the weekend after failing to hold its intraday gain. COSCO Shipping and Shanghai Zhangjiang High-Tech Park Development both lost near 5.0%.
India's Sensex climbed 0.7% and settled on its session high. Hindustan Unilever paced the advance with a 5.8% spike while Infosys followed, climbing 5.1% in reaction to better than expected earnings.

Major European indices trade lower across the board following reports of continued indecision at the ECB concerning the format of a widely-expected QE program. It is worth mentioning that European markets have spiked off their lows following the better than expected U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Economic data was plentiful:
Germany's Industrial Production fell 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.6%). Separately, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR17.70 billion from EUR20.80 billion (expected surplus of EUR20.70 billion)
UK's Industrial Production fell 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous -0.3%) while Manufacturing Production rose 0.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous -0.7%). Separately, the trade deficit narrowed to GBP8.85 billion from GBP9.84 billion (expected deficit of GBP9.40 billion)
French Industrial Production fell 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous -0.7%) while the trade deficit narrowed to EUR3.20 billion from EUR4.60 billion (expected deficit of EUR4.50 billion)
Spain's Industrial Production was flat year-over-year (expected 0.7%; previous 1.1%)
Swiss CPI fell 0.3% year-over-year (expected -0.2%; prior -0.1%) while the Unemployment rate held at an upwardly revised 3.2% (expected 3.1%)

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Germany's DAX remains lower by 0.1%. Utilities E.On and RWE are the two weakest components, down 1.8% and 1.5%, respectively. Merck leads, trading higher by 3.0%.
France's CAC has narrowed its decline to 0.3%. Consumer names Accor, Kering, and Pernod Ricard are up between 1.2% and 1.8%. Energy-related name Total lags, down 1.6%.
UK's FTSE is lower by 0.3%. Homebuilders Barratt, Persimmon, and Taylor Wimpey are all down near 5.0% after Jefferies downgraded nine members of the sector.
Spain's IBEX has given up 2.6% amid weakness in financials. Santander has tumbled 11.0% after selling shares to raise capital. Other financials like Bankia, Caixabank, Banco Sabadell, and Banco Popular hold losses between 1.4% and 2.3%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +0.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.40. The S&P 500 futures have returned to fair value.

December nonfarm payrolls came in at 252,000 while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 245,000. Nonfarm private payrolls added 240,000 against the 235,000 expected by the consensus. The unemployment rate fell to 5.6% from 5.8% while the consensus expected a decline to 5.7%.

Hourly earnings fell 0.2% while the consensus expected growth of 0.2%. The average workweek was reported at 34.6, which is what the consensus expected.

7:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.80. U.S. equity futures trade modestly lower amid cautious action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover seven points below fair value after sliding in reaction to reports indicating the European Central Bank remains undecided on the format for a quantitative easing program.

More volatility is expected around 8:30 ET when the December Nonfarm Payrolls report (Briefing.com consensus 245K) crosses the wires. The day's final data point-November Wholesale Inventories-will be released at 10:00 ET (consensus 0.3%).

Treasuries hold modest gains with the 10-yr yield down two basis points at 2.00%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY 75.54, -3.91): -4.9% after reporting in-line results and guiding Q4 revenue on the low end of estimates.
Infosys (INFY 33.60, +1.49): +4.6% after beating bottom-line estimates and reaffirming guidance.
Yelp (YELP 55.50, +1.67): +3.1% after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Neutral.'

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly higher. Japan's Nikkei +0.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.4%, and China's Shanghai Composite -0.2%
In economic data:
China's CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month and 1.5% year-over-year, as expected. Separately, PPI fell 3.3% year-over-year (expected -3.1%; previous -2.7%)
Japan's Leading Index fell to 103.8 from 104.5 (consensus 104.9)
Australia's Retail Sales ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous 0.4%)
In news:
China's 3.3% decline in PPI represented the 34th consecutive negative reading, pressuring 2014 PPI down to -1.9% from -1.8%

Major European indices trade lower across the board. Germany's DAX -0.6%, France's CAC -0.7%, and UK's FTSE -0.7%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -1.2% and Spain's IBEX -2.8%
Economic data was plentiful:
Germany's Industrial Production fell 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.4%; previous 0.6%). Separately, the trade surplus narrowed to EUR17.70 billion from EUR20.80 billion (expected surplus of EUR20.70 billion)
UK's Industrial Production fell 0.1% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; previous -0.3%) while Manufacturing Production rose 0.7% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous -0.7%). Separately, the trade deficit narrowed to GBP8.85 billion from GBP9.84 billion (expected deficit of GBP9.40 billion)
French Industrial Production fell 0.3% month-over-month (consensus 0.3%; previous -0.7%) while the trade deficit narrowed to EUR3.20 billion from EUR4.60 billion (expected deficit of EUR4.50 billion)
Spain's Industrial Production was flat year-over-year (expected 0.7%; previous 1.1%)
Swiss CPI fell 0.3% year-over-year (expected -0.2%; prior -0.1%) while the Unemployment rate held at an upwardly revised 3.2% (expected 3.1%)
Among news of note:
Reports of continued indecision at the ECB concerning the format of a widely-expected QE program have pressured European equities after the market had all but priced in a QE announcement later this month.

7:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.00.

7:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,197.73...+30.60...+0.20%. Hang Seng...23,919.95...+84.40...+0.40%.

7:03 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,528.18...-42.50...-0.60%. DAX...9,767.60...-70.00...-0.70%.

U.S. Stocks End Down for the Week on the Wildest Swings Since 2009

By Callie Bost and Michelle F. Davis Jan 9, 2015 5:10 PM ET

The wildest trading to start a year since 2009 left the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) lower for the week after three straight annual gains of more than 10 percent.

Investors were whipsawed as the S&P 500 had up and down swings of more than 1 percent on three separate days, with an average move of 1.3 percent for the full five days. The volatility stands in contrast to 2014, when the gauge fluctuated 0.53 percent on average each day for the calmest year in U.S. stocks since 2006.

Speculation that central banks will support global growth and signs of strength in the U.S. economy spurred the biggest two-day equities rally in three weeks. That optimism gave way to concern over falling U.S. wages and Europe’s ability to fight low inflation. Looming throughout the week was the selloff in oil and its potential to spoil corporate earnings.

“They talk about the early days of January being a forecast for the year,” Bruce McCain, who helps oversee in excess of $25 billion as chief investment strategist at the private-banking unit of KeyCorp in Cleveland, said by phone. “When you look at the trading that we’ve seen -- the rapid shift from worries about what the data mean to at least less worry if not some enthusiasm -- that’s probably a pretty good template for what we’re going to see.”

The S&P 500 lost 0.7 percent to 2,044.81 in the five days for its first back-to-back weekly declines since October. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) fell 95.62 points, or 0.5 percent, to 17,737.37.

Volatility Bouts

The broader index tumbled 2.7 percent on the first two days of the week, capping a five-day slide for the worst start to a year since 2008. The gauge rebounded 3 percent in the next two sessions to erase its loss in 2015 before dropping 0.8 percent in the final day.

Strategists are telling equity derivatives clients to prepare for more frequent bouts of volatility as the bull market approaches its seventh year with a gain of about 200 percent in the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank AG, for one, predicts the end of Federal Reserve stimulus and intermittent panic about the rate of global growth will lead to more equity upheaval.

The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), the gauge of investor anxiety known as the VIX, rose as much as 12 percent and slid as much as 12 percent, mirroring moves in the equity gauge. The VIX finished the week lower by 1.4 percent.

$48 Oil

The rout in oil prices weighed on the S&P 500 to start the week, as crude sank below $48 for the first time since 2009. Selling spread from the energy industry to the broader equities market amid concern that cuts in capital spending will hurt corporate results.

Caterpillar Inc. declined 4.6 percent and an index of railroad stocks lost 3.8 percent on speculation the crude slump may hurt spending on energy-services equipment and oil transportation.

“Earnings season is kicking off next week and any signs of stress with oil prices turning down is causing investors to be more nervous,” Steven Rees, who helps oversee about $1 trillion as global head of equity strategy at JPMorgan Chase Bank, said via phone. “There’s general anxiety. The overall tone for earnings might be a little more tempered.”

West Texas Intermediate crude ended the week at the lowest in more than five years on growing evidence OPEC won’t pare output to reduce a global supply surplus.

Earnings Season

Schlumberger Ltd., the oil-services firm that plunged 5.2 percent in the five days, is among the S&P 500 companies that will disclose fourth-quarter earnings next week, after Alcoa Inc. unofficially kicks off the reporting season on Jan. 12. Results for companies in the index will show earnings per share grew 2 percent in the period, analysts tracked by Bloomberg estimate.

Stocks broke their five-day slide after minutes from the Fed’s last meeting indicated no change in policy makers’ approach to rates. Optimism in the economy grew as data showed a drop in weekly jobless claims and the best year for consumer confidence since 2007.

The rally got a boost from overseas, where European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said in a letter that central bank stimulus measures may include sovereign-bond buying, while lawmakers in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party signaled Germany will take a more flexible stance in debt negotiations with Greece.

Europe Concern

The Stoxx 600 Europe erased a gain for the week on the final day of trading on speculation that the ECB’s bond-buying plans won’t be enough to shore up the economy. People familiar with the situation said the central bank is studying models for buying investment-grade assets at amounts less than analysts say is needed.

U.S. equities dropped 0.8 percent on the week’s last day, as concern over Europe and the biggest drop in American wages since 2006 overshadowed better-than-forecast employment growth and a decline in the jobless rate to 5.6 percent in December.

“What we experienced this week was a lot like what we saw in the fourth quarter, which was heightened volatility,” Ron Sanchez, executive vice president and chief investment officer at New York-based Fiduciary Trust Co. International, said by phone. “There’s a lot of uncertainty about global growth and lack thereof and as a result, the volatility we exhibited in late 2014 is here to stay. We have some sorting out to do.”

Equity Movers

Eight of 10 main industries in the S&P 500 declined in the week. Energy shares in the index sank the most, plunging 3.6 percent for a third weekly decline.

Nabors Industries Ltd., Oneok Inc. and Transocean Ltd. retreated at least 11 percent for the biggest losses in the group. Chevron Corp. lost 3.9 percent, while Exxon Mobil Corp. sank 0.8 percent for a third weekly decline.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. sank 5 percent to lead financial shares lower, while Caterpillar’s slide dragged down industrial stocks. Merck & Co. rallied 9.4 percent for the biggest advance in the Dow, while Boston Scientific Corp. surged 11 percent for the best performance in the S&P 500.

“What we saw this week was a lot of nervous Nellies that were worried about anything and everything,” Bob Pavlik, who helps oversee $4.5 billion as chief market strategist at Banyan Partners LLC in New York, said by telephone. “There’s volatility -- let it scare the traders but don’t let it scare the long-term investor. There’s nothing in the overall concerns that has me changing my outlook. This year is going to continue to improve.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Callie Bost in New York at cbost2@bloomberg.net; Michelle F. Davis in New York at mdavis194@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeff Sutherland at jsutherlan13@bloomberg.net Jeremy Herron

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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