Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)
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click on the above image to view today's performance verification
Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ ($830.00) dollars or -8.30 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $8,500.00 dollars or +170.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $7,670.00 dollars
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
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All of my real-time posted trades involves price action concepts from the WRB Analysis free study guide, Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 4 - 12 and the Volatility Trading Report (VTR) trade signal strategies. Analysis -----> Trade Signals
Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.
##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164 Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718 Analysis -----> Trade Signals
Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).
Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=252&t=2585 -----------------------------
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The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.
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Oil slump leads Wall Street to worst week in 2-1/2 years
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell sharply on Friday, leaving the benchmark S&P 500 with its worst weekly performance since May 2012, as investors pulled back from the markets in response to oil's free-fall and more weak data out of China.
Oil's declines have underscored concerns about global demand, and with the S&P 500 having hit a record high only last week, investors were loath to fight the downward pressure on stocks, which accelerated in the final minutes of trading. The S&P dropped 3.5 percent on the week after seven straight weeks of gains.
The S&P energy sector was down 2.2 percent on the day. It is down 16.5 percent this year, the worst performing of 10 S&P sectors. Dow components Exxon Mobil and Chevron Corp both hit 52-week lows as U.S. crude oil fell below $58 a barrel, hitting five-year lows, on expectations of reduced worldwide energy demand.
"Certainly as midday came the market did not stabilize at all, so sellers knew that," said Kenny Polcari, director of the NYSE floor division at O’Neil Securities in New York. "Energy is at the top of the list in terms of the names getting crushed."
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 315.51 points, or 1.79 percent, to 17,280.83, the S&P 500 lost 33 points, or 1.62 percent, to 2,002.33 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 54.57 points, or 1.16 percent, to 4,653.60.
Disappointing data that suggested China's economy softened in November pushed the materials sector down 2.9 percent, making it the worst-performing S&P sector on the day.
The drop in oil and weakness in China overshadowed strong U.S. consumer sentiment, which hit an eight-year high.
Some investors hope declining gas prices will boost consumer spending enough to offset the energy sector's woes.
However, there is concern that rising volatility in the energy market will migrate to equities as investors worry about slack demand worldwide. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, rose 5 percent to 21.08 on Friday as investors paid up to hedge against losses.
Polcari, however, noted that the S&P 500's declines came to within a whisper of the 50-day moving average at 2,000, where he expects to see buyers emerge next week.
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Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Ex …
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange December 10, 2014. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
Adobe Systems rose 9 percent to $76.02, making it the biggest gainer on the S&P 500 after it announced plans to buy stock photography company Fotolia, along with a stronger quarterly report.
Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by 2,468 to 647, for a 3.81-to-1 ratio on the downside; on the Nasdaq, 1,949 issues fell and 790 advanced for a 2.47-to-1 ratio favoring decliners.
The broad S&P 500 index posted 15 new 52-week highs and 35 new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 52 new highs and 160 new lows.
About 7.6 billion shares were traded on U.S. exchanges on Friday, compared to the 6.9 billion daily average so far this month, according to BATS Global Markets data.
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4:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages ended the week on a broadly lower note with the S&P 500 registering its first weekly decline in more than two months. The benchmark index fell 1.6% to widen its weekly loss to 3.5% while the Nasdaq Composite (-1.2%) displayed relative strength, but still lost 2.7% for the week.
Last evening, the House of Representatives passed a $1.1 trillion spending bill to fund the government through September, but that news took the back seat to today's main event, which took place in the oil trading pits with other markets responding to the happenings there.
Overnight, the International Energy Agency issued its fourth global demand forecast cut in five months, which kept the pressure on crude oil ($57.80/bbl). The energy component ended the pit session lower by 3.7% for the day and lost nearly 11.0% for the week.
Furthermore, the decline widened oil's slide from the mid-year high of $107.73/bbl to 46.3%, thus rekindling concerns about how this drop will be handled by energy companies and other entities that rely on a higher price of the commodity. This was most notable in the energy sector (-1.9%), which ended the week lower by 7.8%.
Of course there is another side to lower oil prices, and the benefit that consumers are expected to receive from cheaper gasoline did not go unnoticed. However, the broader implications of the big plunge in crude price caused a reduction in overall risk exposure. Understandably, the consumer discretionary sector (-0.6%) was a spot of relative strength with retailers and restaurant names showing strength. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.28, +0.57) gained 0.6%.
However, the remaining cyclical sectors ended in-line with or behind the broader market. Equities tried to stage a comeback from their opening lows with a near-record high reading of the Michigan Sentiment Index providing a short-lived confidence boost that evaporated over the next hour. A fresh round of selling in the afternoon sent the major averages to new lows into the close.
Outside of energy, commodity-linked sectors like industrials (-1.8%) and materials (-2.8%) bore the brunt of the pressure while influential groups like financials (-2.0%) and technology (-1.5%) did little to stem the bleeding.
Among industrials, transport stocks held up relatively well with the Dow Jones Transportation Average losing 'only' 0.9%, but defense contractors kept the sector behind the broader market. The PHLX Defense Index lost 2.9% with Dow components Boeing (BA 120.77, -2.60) and General Electric (GE 24.89, -0.52) each tumbling 2.1%.
Elsewhere, the technology sector ended in-line with the market. Apple (AAPL 109.85, -1.77) and IBM (IBM 155.38, -5.69) lost 1.6% and 3.5%, respectively, with the latter weighing on the Dow. On the upside, Adobe Systems (ADBE 76.06, +6.32) surged 9.1% after reporting better than expected results.
Shares of Adobe helped the Nasdaq Composite end a bit ahead of the broader market, but the index was also kept from sliding deeper into the red by the outperformance of biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 306.10, -3.95) lost 1.3% after making a brief intraday appearance in the green. As for health care, the sector ended just a step ahead of the market.
Safe haven demand gave a boost to Treasuries with the 10-yr yield ending lower by eight basis points at 2.10%, which represented a 21-basis point decline for the week.
Also of note, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 21.82, +1.74) spiked almost 9.0% to its highest level since late October as participants showed demand for downside protection.
The sell-off invited above average participation with more than 940 million shares changing hands at the NYSE floor.
Economic data included PPI and Michigan Sentiment:
Producer prices declined 0.2% in November after increasing by 0.2% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline of 0.1%
As expected, energy prices fell for the fifth consecutive month with total costs declining 3.1% in November, which followed a 3.0% decline in October
Gasoline prices dropped 6.3%
After increasing 1.0% in October, food prices declined 0.2%
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged in November after increasing 0.4% while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 93.8 in the preliminary December reading from 88.8 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 89.5
The December reading marked the highest point in consumer sentiment since the index reached 96.9 in January 2007
Strong improvements in the labor market and lower gasoline prices offset a slightly downward trending stock market, which helped boost sentiment
On Monday, the Empire Manufacturing Index for December (Briefing.com consensus 14.0) will be released at 8:30 ET while November Industrial Production (consensus 0.7%) and Capacity Utilization (consensus 79.3%) will cross the wires at 9:15 ET. The NAHB Housing Market Index for December (expected 58) will be reported at 10:00 ET and the Net Long-Term TIC Flows for October will cross at 16:00 ET.
Week in Review: All Eyes on Crude
The stock market slumped on Monday as the S&P 500 ended lower by 0.7% with seven sectors in the red. The price-weighted Dow (-0.6%) finished a little ahead of the benchmark index while the Nasdaq (-0.8%) and Russell 2000 (-1.3%) lagged. Equity markets around the world started the new week on a mostly lower note. However, continued hopes for stimulus from the PBoC sent China's Shanghai Composite higher by 2.8% to extend its gain over the past month to 25.0%. The advance took place after the latest trade data showed a better than expected surplus of $54.47 billion, which resulted from a 6.7% drop in imports (expected +3.5%). Hopes for additional stimulus were also present in Europe, but the key indices there could not stay out of the red amid weakness in growth-sensitive listings. Fittingly, cyclical sectors were responsible for the weakness in the U.S. with energy (-3.9%) taking it on the chin amid another decline in crude oil.
The major averages ended the Tuesday session on a mixed note after starting the day with sharp losses. The Russell 2000 and Nasdaq Composite paced the rebound, climbing 1.7% and 0.5%, respectively, while the S&P 500 settled just below its flat line. Equity futures were pressured in the morning after the overnight session featured a 5.4% plunge in China's Shanghai Composite, which endured its biggest one-day decline since 2009. The dive occurred after the index soared 25.0% in a month and was catalyzed by the People's Bank of China taking measures to tighten liquidity conditions. The central bank fixed the USDCNY exchange rate at its highest level since July and imposed stricter collateral rules on short-term loans. The cautious sentiment carried over to the European session with Greece's ASE Index sinking 12.8% while the country's 10-yr yield surged 91 basis points to 7.95% after Prime Minister Antonis Samaras called for a presidential election. This took place right after the country was granted a two-month extension to meet its bailout requirements and the early indications suggest the election could put the Coalition of the Radical Left (Syriza) in power, which rattled markets. Adding insult to injury, Germany reported a 3.1% decline in November imports, which was the biggest drop in almost two years. Despite the global weakness, U.S. equities did not spend much time near their early lows. In fact, the Russell 2000, which led the rebound, marked its low five minutes into the session and never looked back.
Equities ended the Wednesday session on a broadly lower note. The S&P 500 lost 1.6% with all ten sectors ending in the red while the Russell 2000 (-2.1%) underperformed. For the second day in a row, the major averages slumped at the start, but unlike Tuesday, the key indices could not stage a comeback on Wednesday with a big drop in the energy sector (-3.1%) keeping the market under pressure throughout the session. The energy sector widened its fourth-quarter loss to 15.9% with crude oil settling lower by 4.5% at $60.92/bbl. The slide took place after China reported its lowest year-over-year growth in CPI (1.4%) and OPEC cut its demand forecast. In addition, crude stockpiles showed an unexpected build.
Stocks rebounded from Wednesday's broad-based weakness on Thursday, but the key indices slipped on an oil patch ahead of the close as WTI crude fell to $60/bbl. The S&P 500 added 0.5% after being up as much as 1.5% intraday. The Thursday rebound likely included a short covering element as the key indices rallied through the first hour and respected narrow ranges into the afternoon. However, selling into the close pressured the indices from their highs. Investors received a pre-market confidence boost from a better than expected Retail Sales report and a larger than expected decline in weekly initial claims. In turn, the data helped the Dollar Index (88.59, +0.33) rebound from three consecutive declines. However, the dollar strength wasn't entirely due to economic data as the greenback entered the morning with a solid overnight gain against the yen. The dollar/yen pair climbed to 119.00 (+1.1%), and retraced most of its decline from Wednesday.
3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]
Oil prices were at it again
WTI crude sold off below $58/barrel today and finished $2.22 lower at $57.80/barrel.
Natural gas put in a nice rally today on current weather outlooks, closing the day $0.16 higher at $3.80/MMBtu
In the metals space, there was a lot of modest price action at the end of the day
Feb gold fell $3.20 to $1222.40/oz, while Mar silver fell $0.06 to $17.06/oz
Mar copper rose one cent to $2.93/lb
3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.8% with one hour remaining in the trading week. The benchmark index is set to snap an impressive streak of seven consecutive weekly gains, and is on course to end the week lower by 2.8%. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq (-0.5%) has held up a bit better, but that is a small victory considering the index is tracking a 2.0% loss for the week.
The drop in equities has come amid relentless selling in the oil market with WTI crude ending the week lower by 10.8%. That plunge has resonated with the energy sector, which has given up 7.1% since last Friday.
With oil continuing its slide, the resulting growth concerns have fueled safe-haven demand with the 10-yr yield dropping 21 basis points since last Friday to 2.10%.
2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain pressured with the consumer discretionary sector (unch) as the only group able to withstand the broad-based selling. Elsewhere, biotechnology continues holding up well with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 310.38, +0.33) trading higher by 0.1%. This in turn has helped the Nasdaq Composite (-0.4%) stay ahead of the S&P 500 (-0.8%).
The tech-heavy Nasdaq has also drawn support from a handful of large cap components like Cisco Systems (CSCO 27.02, +0.04), Microsoft (MSFT 47.57, +0.40), Facebook (FB 78.52, +0.79), and Intel (INTC 36.62, -0.08).
Elsewhere, Treasuries continue hovering near their highs with the 10-yr yield down eight basis points at 2.10%.
2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages hover near their rebound highs with the Nasdaq just below its flat line.
Producer prices declined 0.2% in November after increasing by 0.2% in October.
As with last month, an increase in the prices of services staved off a bigger decline in overall prices. Services prices rose 0.1% in November after increasing 0.5% in October.
Using the old PPI methodology, which does not include the services price component, finished goods prices fell 0.7% in November after declining 0.3% in October. That was the largest decline since July 2009.
Strong improvements in the labor market and lower gasoline prices offset a slightly downward trending stock market, which helped boost the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index to its highest point since the index reached 96.9 in January 2007.
1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] US equities maintain their heavy decline on the day, but have rallied back in recent trade with the S&P 500 down 0.5%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.9%, and the Nasdaq down 0.1%. The DJIA continues to be weighed down by a notably weak performance from IBM (IBM 156.67, -4.40).
The consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) is displaying relative strength today following the highest reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report (93.8 since January 2007 and the drop in oil prices below $58.00/bbl.
Materials (-2.1%) remains the weakest sector on the day, pulled lower by the underperformance of chemical and mining companies such as Dow Chemical (DOW 43.89, -2.12), DuPont (DD 69.95, -1.68), and Freeport-McMoRan (FCX 22.06, -0.92).
The U.S. Dollar Index also remains weak, down 0.4% to 88.30
12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market has endured a rough first half of the session amid a continuation of some of the recent concerns. The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.8% while the Nasdaq Composite (+0.5%) outperforms.
Equity indices have faced selling pressure from the start after the International Energy Agency cut its global demand forecast. The lowered outlook pressured crude oil and led to worries about how energy companies will handle the continued weakness.
Stocks were able to climb off their opening lows with a better than expected Michigan Sentiment survey providing a confidence boost, but the rebound was [c]rudely interrupted by another drop in oil, which rekindled the same concerns about the broader implications of such a move that led to the opening plunge. At this juncture, crude oil is lower by 2.7% at $58.36/bbl after testing the $57.50/bbl level earlier.
Strikingly, the energy sector (-0.5%) is one of just two outperformers at midday, but the relative strength is a function of the sector being oversold on a short term basis. The growth-sensitive group was down as much as 1.6% at the start, but despite a small rebound, the sector remains on track to end the week lower by 6.5%. Despite the relative strength of the sector, Dow components Chevron (CVX 103.68, -1.23) and ExxonMobil (XOM 88.11, -1.09) underperform with losses close to 1.2% apiece.
Meanwhile, the other cyclical outperformer-consumer discretionary (+0.1%)-has been boosted by retailers. Presumably, that strength can also be traced to crude oil. With gasoline prices sliding in a hurry, retailers are expected to benefit from consumers having a bit more discretionary income in their pockets. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.65, +0.94) trades higher by 1.0%.
For the time being, concerns stemming from crashing oil prices have overruled the expected boost to consumers from lower gas prices. Cyclical sectors have reflected the worries with financials (-1.1%), industrials (-1.1%), and materials (-2.0%) trailing the broader market.
Countercyclical sectors haven't fared much better with health care (-0.8%) trading in-line with the market while consumer staples (-0.6%) and utilities (-0.4%) outperform slightly. It is worth mentioning that the broader health care sector has overshadowed relative strength in biotechnology as evidenced by the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 309.24, -0.81) trading lower by 0.3%.
Treasuries hover near their highs with the 10-yr yield down eight basis points at 2.09%.
Economic data included PPI and Michigan Sentiment:
Producer prices declined 0.2% in November after increasing by 0.2% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a decline of 0.1%
As expected, energy prices fell for the fifth consecutive month with total costs declining 3.1% in November, which followed a 3.0% decline in October
Gasoline prices dropped 6.3%
After increasing 1.0% in October, food prices declined 0.2%
Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged in November after increasing 0.4% while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index increased to 93.8 in the preliminary December reading from 88.8 while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 89.5
The December reading marked the highest point in consumer sentiment since the index reached 96.9 in January 2007
Strong improvements in the labor market and lower gasoline prices offset a slightly downward trending stock market, which helped boost sentiment
12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have yet to find steady support with the S&P 500 (-0.9%) testing how thick the ice is around the 2,017 level.
The consumer discretionary sector (unch) remains the lone bright spot among the ten economic groups while four of the remaining five cyclical sectors trade in-line with or behind the market. Strikingly, the energy sector (-0.8%) hovers a bit ahead of the market, but that likely stems from the sector being oversold after falling nearly 7.0% this week alone.
On a separate note, biotechnology remains ahead of the market, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 308.83, -1.22) has widened its loss to 0.4%.
11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Dow (-1.2%) and S&P 500 (-1.0%) remain near their worst levels of the session, but there are some bright spots in the market that have helped the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) display relative strength.
Specifically, the index has benefitted from the relative strength in biotechnology with the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology (IBB 309.89, -0.16) hovering just below its flat line. That strength has given a small boost to the health care sector (-0.8%), but the countercyclical group remains pressured by large cap names like Baxter (BAX 72.02, -1.09) and Merck (MRK 58.26, -1.09).
Also of note, the consumer discretionary sector trades flat with apparel retailers showing considerable strength. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 92.36, +0.65) is higher by 0.7% with retailers presumably expected to benefit from consumers spending less on gas.
11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have extended their losses amid broad weakness on the cyclical side of the market. With the price of crude oil continuing its tailspin ($58.11/bbl, -1.84), investors are showing concerns about the broader implications of such a move. The resulting global growth concerns have pressured growth-sensitive sectors like financials (-1.2%), industrials (-1.2%), materials (-1.9%), and even the technology sector (-0.8%), which had shown relative strength earlier, has now caught down to the market.
Also of note, markets across Europe have made new lows into the close with Germany's DAX down 2.6% and Italy's MIB lower by 2.7%.
Treasuries have continued their advance with the 10-yr yield down almost eight basis points with the benchmark yield dipping below the 2.10% mark.
11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.8% after failing to extend its opening rebound.
Following an opening stumble, the benchmark index was able to recover as much as 2/3 of the early slide, but that move did not last long, and was followed by a drop to a fresh low. Interestingly, the energy sector (-1.2%) has trimmed its early loss, but other influential groups like financials (-1.0%) and industrials (-0.9%) have made new lows.
In the industrial sector, transport stocks now trade in-line with the market while defense contractors have been a big drag with the PHLX Defense index down 2.5%. Esterline Technologies (ESL 100.62, -16.91) weighs, trading lower by 14.3% after missing earnings estimates, but more notably, heavily-weighted sector components General Electric (GE 25.18, -0.23) and Boeing (BA 121.29, -2.08) hold respective losses of 0.9% and 1.7%.
After a brief retreat Treasuries climbed to new highs with the 10-yr yield now down seven basis points at 2.10%.
10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]
Commodities are mixed this morning with agriculture futures mostly higher and energy and metals mostly lower
Oil prices have been at it again
In electronic trade yesterday, WTi crude fell below $59/barrel, near $58/barrel.
This morning, WTI crude is seeing a little recovery and is now -2% at $58.78/barrel
Natural gas futures are strong on weather forecasts. Jan nat gas is now +3.2% at $3.75/MMBtu
Feb gold is currently trading 0.6% lower at $1218.70/oz, while Mar silver is -0.2% at $17.08/oz
Mar copper is +0.3% at $2.93/lb
Dollar index is -0.3% at 88.40
10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades lower by 0.2% after recovering about five points from its opening low. The benchmark index remains weighed down by the energy sector (-1.6%) while top-weighted groups trade mixed with respect to the market. Health care (-0.2%), technology (-0.1%), and consumer discretionary (+0.4%) have shown some relative strength while financials (-0.3%) and industrials (-0.5%) lag.
Notably, the industrial sector has been pressured by top components like Boeing (BA 121.52, -1.86) and General Electric (GE 25.27, -0.14) while transport stocks have shown relative strength with the Dow Jones Transportation average higher by 0.1%.
Just released, the preliminary reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey for December jumped to 93.8 from the reading of 88.8 that was reported in November. The Briefing.com consensus expected the index to improve to 89.5.
The better than expected reading has boosted risk tolerance in the foreign exchange market with the dollar/yen pair climbing to 119.00 from 118.60 at the start of the session.
9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] As expected, the major averages began the session under pressure with the energy sector (-1.4%) responsible for a large portion of the early decline. As for crude oil, the energy component has inched up off its low, but remains down 2.1% at $58.70 after the International Energy Agency issued its fourth global demand forecast cut in five months.
Although the energy sector fueled an opening drop, the market has already moved off its opening low. Energy and materials are the only two sectors with losses of 1.0% or more while the remaining cyclical sectors are holding up relatively well. Technology (-0.3%) and financials (-0.3%) trade just ahead of the broader market while the consumer discretionary sector (-0.1%) hovers near its flat line.
Treasuries remain in the green with the 10-yr yield down five basis points at 2.12%.
The preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for December will be released at 9:55 ET (Briefing.com consensus 89.5).
9:09 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.80. The stock market is on track for a lower open with futures on the S&P 500 trading seven points below fair value. Index futures held their ground through the early portion of the overnight session after the U.S. House of Representatives passed a spending bill to fund the government through September; however, investors began reducing their risk exposure around the start of the European session after the International Energy Agency lowered its global demand forecast for the fourth time in the past five months. The lowered outlook rekindled concerns about global growth and increased worries how some energy companies will handle continued weakness in crude oil. Currently, the energy component is lower by 2.4% at $58.53/bbl.
The continued crude weakness has been the focal point this morning while news on the corporate front has been scarce. Adobe Systems (ADBE 73.50, +3.76) is on track to open higher by 5.3% after beating bottom-line expectations and reporting above-consensus subscriber growth in its cloud business.
In economic news, producer prices declined 0.2% in November after increasing by 0.2% in October while the Briefing.com consensus expected the PPI to decline 0.1% with energy prices fueling the drop. Excluding food and energy, core PPI was unchanged in November after increasing 0.4% in October while the consensus expected an increase of 0.1%.
One more data point remains with the preliminary reading of the Michigan Sentiment survey for December scheduled for a 9:55 ET release (Briefing.com consensus 89.5).
Treasuries hold gains with the 10-yr yield down five basis points at 2.12%.
8:59 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -29.70. The S&P 500 futures trade eight points below fair value.
Asian markets ended the Friday session on a mixed note. Press reports in China speculated about the potential for the country's government to cut its GDP target for 2015, but the official figure will not be known until March. Elsewhere, Japan will hold its Lower House election on Sunday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's LDP expected to receive very strong support
In economic data:
China's Industrial Production rose 7.2% year-over-year (expected 7.5%; prior 7.7%) while Retail Sales increased 11.7% (consensus 11.5%; last 11.5%). Also of note, Fixed Asset Investment spiked 15.8% (expected 15.7%; prior 15.9%) and new loans expanded by CNY852.70 billion (expected CNY644.50 billion; last CNY548.30 billion)
Japan's Industrial Production ticked up 0.4% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%; last 0.2%) while Capacity Utilization rose 0.7% month-over-month (last 3.6%)
India's CPI eased to 4.38% from 5.52% (expected 4.63%) while Industrial Production fell 4.2% year-over-year (expected 2.4%; previous 2.5%)
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI fell to 55.2 from 59.3
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Japan's Nikkei added 0.7% after ending in the middle of its trading range. Mitsumi Electric and Tokyo Electric Power ended among the leaders with respective gains of 5.9% and 4.0%. Pioneer and J Front Retailing lagged with losses close to 2.2% apiece.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 0.3% and ended on its low. Consumer names lagged with Belle International and Want Want China Holdings falling 3.3% and 1.4%, respectively. Property names held up well with Sino Land and China Resources Land climbing 2.5% and 1.2%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite pulled away from its flat line ahead of the close to add 0.4%. Brokerage names displayed strength with Southwest Securities up 10.0%. Real estate-related financials lagged with China Vanke tumbling 2.8%.
India's Sensex ended near its session low, down 0.9%. Growth-sensitive names weighed with Oil & Natural Gas Corp, Reliance Industries, and Tata Steel falling between 2.6% and 3.8%.
Major European indices trade lower across the board with Italy's MIB (-1.6%) pacing the slide that began after the IEA cut its global demand forecast.
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Industrial Production rose 0.7% year-over-year (expected 0.5%; previous 0.2%) while Employment Change came in at 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, as expected
Germany's Wholesale Price Index fell 0.7% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; prior -0.6%)
UK's CB Leading Index declined 0.3% month-over-month (last -0.3%)
French Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR900 million from EUR1.20 billion o Spain's CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month, as expected
Italy's CPI slipped 0.2% month-over-month, as expected
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Germany's DAX trades lower by 1.4% with basic materials names leading the retreat. BASF, Lanxess, and Linde are down between 1.3% and 2.5%.
UK's FTSE trades down 1.5% amid weakness in energy names. Petrofac, Royal Dutch Shell, and Tullow Oil are down between 1.7% and 4.2%. United Utilities Group is the top performer, up 3.1%.
In France, the CAC has given up 1.6%. Oil services company Technip is lower by 3.1% while other growth-sensitive names like Schneider Electric, Legrand, and ArcelorMittal sport losses between 0.9% and 2.6%.
Italy's MIB underperforms with a loss of 1.6%. Saipem is among the weakest performers, down 4.7%, while financials Banco Popolare, BMPS, and Unicredit display losses close to 2.5% apiece.
8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -36.10. The S&P 500 futures trade ten points below fair value.
November producer prices slipped 0.2% while the Briefing.com consensus called for a downtick of 0.1%. Core producer prices were unchanged while the consensus expected an uptick of 0.1%.
7:57 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -28.10. U.S. equity futures trade in the red amid defensive action overseas. The S&P 500 futures trade seven points below fair value after sliding from their highs at the start of the European session.
Last evening, the House of Representatives passed a $1.1 trillion spending bill to keep the government funded through September, but the bill faced stiff opposition from the Democratic side. However, the passage was not enough to provide support to index futures, which tumbled after the International Energy Agency cut its global demand outlook, thus fueling concerns about the strength of global growth.
The cautious sentiment has led to demand for Treasuries with the 10-yr yield down almost six basis points at 2.12%.
November PPI (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%) will be released at 8:30 ET while the preliminary reading of the December Michigan Sentiment Survey will be reported at 9:55 ET (consensus 89.5).
In U.S. corporate news of note:
Adobe Systems (ADBE 75.06, +5.32): +7.6% after beating bottom-line expectations and reporting above-consensus subscriber growth in its cloud business.
Staples (SPLS 16.24, +0.14): +0.9% after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch upgraded the stock to 'Buy' from 'Underperform.'
Reviewing overnight developments:
Asian markets ended mixed. Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.3%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.4%, and Japan's Nikkei +0.7%
In economic data:
China's Industrial Production rose 7.2% year-over-year (expected 7.5%; prior 7.7%) while Retail Sales increased 11.7% (consensus 11.5%; last 11.5%). Also of note, Fixed Asset Investment spiked 15.8% (expected 15.7%; prior 15.9%) and new loans expanded by CNY852.70 billion (expected CNY644.50 billion; last CNY548.30 billion)
Japan's Industrial Production ticked up 0.4% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%; last 0.2%) while Capacity Utilization rose 0.7% month-over-month (last 3.6%)
India's CPI eased to 4.38% from 5.52% (expected 4.63%) while Industrial Production fell 4.2% year-over-year (expected 2.4%; previous 2.5%)
New Zealand's Business NZ PMI fell to 55.2 from 59.3
In news:
Press reports in China speculated about the potential for the country's government to cut its GDP target for 2015, but the official figure will not be known until March
Japan will hold its Lower House election on Sunday with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's LDP expected to receive very strong support
Major European indices trade lower across the board. Germany's DAX -1.2%, UK's FTSE -1.2%, and France's CAC -1.4%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB -1.3% and Spain's IBEX -1.2%
Participants received several data points:
Eurozone Industrial Production rose 0.7% year-over-year (expected 0.5%; previous 0.2%) while Employment Change came in at 0.2% quarter-over-quarter, as expected
Germany's Wholesale Price Index fell 0.7% month-over-month (expected 0.3%; prior -0.6%)
UK's CB Leading Index declined 0.3% month-over-month (last -0.3%)
French Current Account deficit narrowed to EUR900 million from EUR1.20 billion
Spain's CPI slipped 0.1% month-over-month, as expected
Italy's CPI slipped 0.2% month-over-month, as expected
Among news of note:
Energy and commodity-related names have paced the retreat in Europe following IEA's global demand forecast cut
7:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -16.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -38.50.
7:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,371.58...+114.20...+0.70%. Hang Seng...23,249.20...-63.30...-0.30%.
7:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,368.03...-93.60...-1.40%. DAX...9,733.60...-128.50...-1.30%.
Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.
Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
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