TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $120.00 dollars or +1.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $2,125.00 dollars or +42.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $2,245.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=127&t=1724

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading or you do not document (journal) your own thoughts from trade to trade...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=232&t=2209

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Techs Keep Sizzling As Broader Market Stalls


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The broader market barely budged Tuesday, as investors digested the latest corporate earnings and a notable drug company merger. But tech stocks remain on a hot streak.

In the first day of trading this week, the Dow finished a tad lower, while the S&P 500 ticked up a bit. The Nasdaq gained for the eighth straight day and closed at its highest level since January 2000. The U.S. market was closed Monday for the Presidents Day holiday.

While the start of the year was rocky for investors, stocks roared back to life last week. The S&P 500 is now only a few points away from its record closing high.

But further gains are only expected if earnings impress Wall Street.

* Worst over for stocks? Depends on earnings

The holiday-shortened week is not off to a good start in that regard though. Coca-Cola (KO, Fortune 500) dropped almost 4% after the beverage giant reported revenue below analyst estimates. The company's global footprint makes it a good barometer for consumer spending around the world, including emerging markets.

"$KO now u know why they wanted the $GMCR deal, USA soda sales declining. Coffee where its at," said danbetz on StockTwits, pointing to the company's recently announced partnership with Green Mountain Coffee Roasters.

BlackBerry (BBRY) shares spiked over 5% after activist hedge fund manager Dan Loeb disclosed that he acquired a stake in the struggling smartphone maker. The stock was the biggest gainer on CNNMoney's Tech 30 Index Tuesday. Despite a turnaround effort, BlackBerry shares are down over 33% in the last year. But they have rallied this year on hopes that new CEO John Chen will be able to stop the bleeding.

"$BBRY Bumpy it will be, it's a much hated BlackBerry...But that is changing since John Chen climbed on board," commented StockTwits trader JohnLBair1.

"$BBRY Loeb definitely trusting Chen management to turn around BB just like he did with Marissa when she took over Yahoo," said StockTwits user TwitsTrader, referring to Loeb's success in helping to install Yahoo! (YHOO, Fortune 500) CEO Marissa Mayer to try and rejuvenate the online media company.

In other corporate news, Actavis (ACT, Fortune 500)agreed to buy Forest Laboratories (FRX) for $25 billion in a deal announced Tuesday. Shares of both pharmaceutical companies surged on the news. Forest jumped 30% while Actavis was up 7%.

The deal is yet another big win for activist investor Carl Icahn, who is a major shareholder in Forest Labs and helped spur changes in the company's management last year.

"Great result for ALL $FRX (Forest Labs) shareholders - proves again that activism works," Icahn tweeted Tuesday.

"I'm beginning to kinda like this Icahn guy. $FRX," quipped BeyondPale on StockTwits.

1-800-Flowers (FLWS) shares plunged after the delivery service spent the weekend apologizing to customers whose flowers and candy never showed up.

Shares of Netflix (NFLX), another member of CNNMoney's Tech 30 Index, moved slightly higher Tuesday despite reports that the company's move to strike a deal with Time Warner Cable (TWC, Fortune 500) for a place on the cable company's set-top boxes has slowed. Investors are hoping the success of season two of Netflix's hit series "House of Cards" will continue to lift the stock.

King Media Entertainment, the maker of the popular online puzzle game Candy Crush, filed to for an initial public offering. Shares of Zynga (ZNGA), another developer of mobile and online games, rose about 4% on the news.

But one trader felt Zynga can stand on its own.

"$ZNGA Forget Candy Crush IPO news, Zynga the one to watch in mobile gaming," said BullzNBearz.

European indexes and Asian markets both closed mixed. The Nikkei added 3.1% after Japan's central bank doubled the size of two programs designed to encourage bank lending.





4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices kicked off the abbreviated trading week on a relatively quiet note. Small caps finished in the lead (Russell 2000 +1.0%) while the S&P 500 added 0.1%.

The benchmark index saw a brief dip at the open, but the weakness was erased promptly thanks to the early strength of the health care sector (+0.9%). The group surged out of the gate after Actavis (ACT 201.47, +9.59) agreed to acquire Forest Laboratories (FRX 91.04, +19.65) for $25 billion. Biotechnology also factored into the sector's strength as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 264.24, +6.73) jumped 2.6%.

Outside of health care, gains in other sectors were much more subdued. Energy (+0.3%) was the second-best performer, aided by crude oil, which surged 2.2% to $102.52/bbl.

Similar to crude, precious metals enjoyed another strong session. Gold futures rose 0.4% to $1324.60/ozt while silver futures saw their ninth day of gains, spiking 2.2% to $21.91/ozt. This underpinned miners, sending the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX 26.46, +0.11) higher by 0.4%.

Elsewhere among cyclical sectors, financials (+0.2%) outperformed while consumer discretionary (+0.1%) and technology (+0.1%) ended in-line. Also worth noting, the industrial sector (-0.2%) lagged due to the underperformance of transports.

The Dow Jones Transportation Average (-1.0%) fell below its 50-day moving average (7277) as 16 of its 20 components registered losses. Most notably, Kansas City Southern (KSU 91.67, -4.29) lost 4.5% after JP Morgan downgraded the stock to 'Neutral' from 'Overweight.'

Countercyclical groups were mixed as health care and utilities (+0.3%) outperformed while consumer staples (-0.7%) and telecom services (-0.9%) lagged. Dow component Coca-Cola (KO 37.47, -1.46) pressured the staples sector after reporting in-line earnings on below-consensus revenue.

Even though equities ended higher, there was some demand for volatility protection, which pushed the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.87, +0.30) higher by 2.2%.

Treasuries ended near their best levels of the day with the 10-yr yield down four basis points at 2.71%.

Participation was a bit below average with only 709 million shares changing hands at the NYSE.

Among overseas news of note, the Bank of Japan made no changes to its interest rate or the purchase program; however, the bank did double its bank lending facility to JPY7 trillion. The yen weakened in reaction to the news, but erased about half of the decline during today's session. The dollar/yen pair traded near 102.35 at the New York close after notching an overnight high of 102.75.

Today's data was limited to three reports:
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The February NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 46 from 56 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to hold at 56.
The Empire Manufacturing Survey for February registered a reading of 4.5, which was down from the prior month's unrevised reading of 12.5. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to decline to 7.5.
Lastly, the December net long-term TIC flows report indicated a $45.9 billion outflow of foreign capital from U.S. denominated assets. This followed the prior month's $28.0 billion outflow.

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET while January Housing Starts, Building Permits, and PPI will all be reported at 8:30 ET. Also of note, the latest minutes from the January FOMC meeting will cross the wires at 14:00 ET.

Nasdaq Composite +2.3% YTD
Russell 2000 -0.1% YTD
S&P 500 -0.4% YTD
Dow Jones Industrial Average -2.7% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

Precious metals traded higher as the dollar index traded in the red. Apr gold extended gains for a seventh consecutive session, trending higher after lifting from its session low of $1317.00 per ounce set at pit trade open. It eventually settled with a 0.4% gain at $1324.60 per ounce.
Mar silver came off its session low of $21.51 per ounce and settled 2.2% higher at $21.90 per ounce, just below its session high of $21.91 per ounce.
Mar crude also got a boost from the weaker dollar index. Prices lifted from a session low of $101.16 per barrel and touched a session high of $102.54 per barrel moments before settling at $102.52 per barrel, or 2.2% higher.
Mar natural gas traded in positive territory, climbing as high as $5.59 per MMBtu in late afternoon floor action. It settled at $5.54 per MMBtu, booking a solid 6.3% gain.

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades higher by 0.2% with one hour remaining in today's session. Outside of a brief morning dip, the benchmark index has spent the entire trading day in a narrow three-point range.

True to recent form, the Nasdaq outperformed throughout the session with biotechnology making a significant contribution to the strength. Including today's 0.8% gain, the Nasdaq is now higher by 2.4% in 2014 versus a 0.3% decline for the S&P 500.

Despite the gains among equities, Treasuries also sit near their best levels of the session. The benchmark 10-yr yield is lower by four basis points at 2.71%.

2:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) trades less than two points away from its session high while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.1%) remains challenged by its flat line.

With 90 minutes left in the trading day, the price-weighted Dow has yet to make a sustained move into positive territory. There are 17 decliners within the Dow with Coca-Cola (KO 37.46, -1.46) showing the largest loss; however, the stock has little influence over the index due to its relatively low share price. Other notable laggards include AT&T (T 32.78, -0.37) and Procter & Gamble (PG 77.94, -1.46) while the most influential index component, Visa (V 226.90, +0.90), trades higher by 0.4%.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has slipped from its recent levels, trimming its gain to less than two points. The health care sector (+1.0%) continues to outperform notably while the next-best group-utilities-trades higher by 0.2%.

On the downside, the consumer staples sector (-0.7%) remains pressured by Coca-Cola (KO 37.40, -1.53) while the industrial sector (-0.4%) continues to struggle due to broad weakness among transports. The Dow Jones Transportation Average trades lower by 1.1% after falling back below its 50-day moving average (7277).

Also of note, the S&P 500's recent retreat from highs took place as the yen continued working its way back from overnight lows. The dollar/yen pair hovers at its intraday low, near 102.28, after starting the session at 102.40.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Since the S&P 500 hit its intraday low of 1737.92 on February 5, it has gained as much as 6.0%. It has been an impressive move, yet it still pales in comparison to the Nasdaq Composite, which has risen as much as 7.7%.

Few things have changed today. The S&P 500 continues to press its case higher, but the Nasdaq continues to outperform, aided by many of its largest components like Apple (AAPL 549.14, +5.15) and Google (GOOG 1210.06, +7.26).

With the robust gains across the market over the last eight sessions, it is not unreasonable to think that it is due for some profit-taking activity. Notwithstanding the sharp reversal in stock prices over the last eight sessions, it is certainly interesting that both gold prices and Treasuries have hung in there just fine over the same period, suggesting risk aversion hasn't necessarily fallen by the wayside.

Gold prices ($1323.60/troy oz.) are up 5.3% since February 5 while the yield on the 10-yr Treasury note has risen just two basis points to 2.69%.

1:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages trade in mixed fashion. The Russell 2000 (+1.1%) leads while the Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to struggle near its flat line. For its part, the S&P 500 trades higher by 0.2% with seven of ten sectors displaying gains.

Equities began the abbreviated trading week with the health care sector (+1.0%) providing leadership. The group received support from M&A activity after Actavis (ACT 205.11, +13.23) agreed to acquire Forest Laboratories (FRX 92.28, +20.89) for $25 billion in stock and cash. The sector has also drawn strength from biotechnology as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 264.07, +6.56) trades higher by 2.6%. Notably, the outperformance of biotech has given a boost to the Nasdaq, which trades up 0.7%.

Outside of health care, most other influential sectors trade little changed. Financials (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) trade in-line with the broader market while the discretionary space (+0.1%) lags.

Homebuilders are partially responsible for the underperformance following the disappointing NAHB Housing Market Index reading for December (46 versus 56 expected). The iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.93, -0.28) trades down 1.1%.

Elsewhere, the industrial sector (-0.3%) remains in the red due to considerable losses among transports. Kansas City Southern (KSU 90.48, -5.47) holds a loss of 5.7% following a JP Morgan downgrade to 'Neutral' while the broader Dow Jones Transportation Average trades down 1.2%.

Among overseas news of note, the Bank of Japan made no changes to its interest rate or the purchase program, but did expand its bank lending facility. The yen weakened in reaction to the news, but has already erased about half of the decline. The dollar/yen pair trades near 102.40 after notching an overnight high at 102.75. The currency pair is likely to remain in focus over the coming days due to the popularity of the yen-based carry trade that benefits from rising stocks and a weakening funding currency.

Interestingly, Treasuries sit on their highs despite the S&P 500 trading near its best level of the session. The benchmark 10-yr yield is lower by five basis points at 2.70%.

Today's data was limited to three reports:

The February NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 46 from 56 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to hold at 56.
The Empire Manufacturing Survey for February registered a reading of 4.5, which was down from the prior month's unrevised reading of 12.5. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to decline to 7.5.
Lastly, the December net long-term TIC flows report indicated a $45.9 billion outflow of foreign capital from U.S. denominated assets. This followed the prior month's $28.0 billion outflow.

12:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] After failing to build on its session high, the S&P 500 has returned near its flat line. With stocks maintaining narrow ranges, we would like to shift focus to the foreign exchange market where the yen has been inching higher since notching overnight lows.

Last evening, the yen weakened after the Bank of Japan announced its bank lending facility will be doubled to JPY7 trillion from JPY3.50 trillion. However, the Japanese currency has nearly erased its entire decline. The dollar/yen pair hovers near 102.33 after marking an overnight high at 102.75.

In all likelihood, concerns surrounding forced unwinds of yen-based carry trades have kept a lid on equities. Even though seven of ten sectors trade with gains, the S&P 500 remains little changed.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much has changed since our last update as the S&P 500 remains just below its best level of the session. Interestingly, outside of the health care sector (+0.9%), other groups have yet to extend their gains past 0.3%.

Financials (+0.2%) and technology (+0.2%) trade just ahead of the broader market while another influential group, consumer discretionary (unch), lags. Homebuilders are partially responsible for the underperformance following the disappointing NAHB Housing Market Index reading for December (46 versus 56 expected). DR Horton (DHI 23.16, -0.46) is lower by 2.0% while the broader iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 24.92, -0.29) trades down 0.7%.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+0.2%) has climbed to a fresh session high in a move that received help from most sectors. At this juncture, only consumer staples (-0.5%), industrials (-0.1%), and telecom services (-0.9%) remain in the red.

Elsewhere, the health care sector has extended its gain to 1.0% thanks in part to biotechnology. The iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 263.93, +6.42) trades up 2.5%, which has also factored into the outperformance of the Nasdaq Composite (+0.6%).

In addition to biotech, the tech-heavy Nasdaq has benefited from gains among top components like Apple (AAPL 548.60, +4.61), Google (GOOG 1208.61, +5.81), and Visa (V 227.04, +1.04).

11:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages continue to trade in mixed fashion with small caps maintaining their lead. The Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and Nasdaq (+0.6%) outperform while the S&P 500 (+0.1%) remains just above its flat line. For its part, the Dow (-0.1%) sits in the red as 16 of its 30 components register losses.

With the S&P 500 trading just north of its flat line, individual sectors are split down the middle. Health care (+0.9%) remains in the lead while other advancing sectors like consumer discretionary (+0.2%), financials (+0.1%), technology (+0.2%), and utilities (+0.1%) display more modest gains.

On the downside, consumer staples (-0.7%), industrials (-0.3%), and telecom services (-1.2%) lag notably while energy (-0.1%) and materials (-0.1%) trade little changed.

Even though the broader market is little changed, demand for downside protection has been healthy. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 14.14, +0.57) is higher by 4.2%.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Commodities are mostly higher this morning, led by gains in natural gas and coffee futures.

The catalyst for both is weather, but different types of weather. In short, the unusual cold weather in the U.S. has been providing price support for nat gas, while a dry spell in Brazil has been giving coffee futures a real boost in recent sessions.

Mar natural gas is now +5.6% at $5.50/MMBtu, while coffee futures are up 5.7% at $1.50/lb.

Gold and silver futures have been climbing higher this morning and received an additional boost following this morning's housing data. Apr gold is now +0.3% at $1322.20/oz, Mar silver is +1.5% at $21.75/oz.

Crude oil futures have been in positive territory all day so far and remain just under session highs, now at $101.38/barrel, up 1.1%.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has slipped into the red while the Nasdaq (+0.2%) continues to hold a modest gain.

Just reported, the February NAHB Housing Market Index fell to 46 from 56 while the Briefing.com consensus expected the reading to hold at 56.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session with small caps in the lead. The Russell 2000 holds an early gain of 0.6% while the S&P 500 trades higher by 0.2% with seven of ten sectors registering gains.

The health care sector (+0.8%) began in the lead with support from Actavis (ACT 92.27, +20.88), which trades higher by 6.9% after agreeing to acquire Forest Laboratories (FRX 92.37, +20.99) for $25 billion in cash and stock.

Outside of health care, other influential sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, and technology hold gains of no more than 0.2%.

The NAHB Housing Market Index for February will be announced at 10:00 ET.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.20. The stock market is on track to begin the abbreviated trading week on a quiet note as futures on the S&P 500 trade right above fair value. Index futures climbed overnight, but surrendered their gains as the European session got underway. The early strength came about after the Bank of Japan concluded its latest policy meeting. Although the central bank made no changes to its interest rate or the purchase program, it did expand its bank lending facility. The news gave a boost to the Nikkei (+3.1%) while weighing on the yen. The dollar/yen pair jumped from 102.00 to the 102.75 area immediately following the announcement. Currently, the pair hovers near 102.50.

Participants received a handful of quarterly reports this morning. Most notably, Coca-Cola (KO 38.10, -0.83) holds a pre-market loss of 2.1% after reporting in-line earnings on above-consensus revenue.

Treasuries are modestly higher to start the day with the 10-yr yield off one basis point at 2.74%.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.20. The S&P 500 futures trade one point above fair value.

Markets across Asia finished mostly higher after the Bank of Japan responded to Monday's soft GDP reading (0.3% quarter-over-quarter actual versus 0.7% expected) by maintaining its monetary policy while increasing a special loan program. The BoJ held its asset purchase program at an annual pace of JPY60-70 trillion while extending a special loan facility and doubling the pool of money available to banks. Elsewhere, the latest Reserve Bank of Australia minutes indicated the central bank is likely to remain on hold as annual inflation sits at 2.7%. Also of note, Hong Kong's unemployment rate ticked down to 3.1% from 3.2% and Taiwan's Q4 final GDP came in at 3.0%.

Japan's Nikkei rallied 3.1% in response to the Bank of Japan action. Financials were in focus with Sumitomo Mitsui Financial and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial both adding 5.0%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng ticked up 0.2%, climbing to its best level in more than three weeks. Casino stocks posted solid gains as Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China both gained 1.5%.
China's Shanghai Composite fell 0.8%, slipping off two-month highs as trade was rejected at the 200-day moving average. Brokerage names were weak with Haitong Securities falling 3.7%.

Major European indices trade modestly higher with Great Britain's FTSE (+0.4%) in the lead. Participants received several economic data points. Eurozone current account surplus narrowed to EUR21.30 billion from EUR23.30 billion (EUR21.00 billion expected) and ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 68.5 from 73.3 (73.9 expected). Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment decreased to 55.7 from 61.7 (61.7 expected). ZEW Current Conditions improved to 50.0 from 41.2 (44.0 forecast). Great Britain's CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.5% expected, 0.4% prior) while the year-over-year reading rose 1.9% (2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous). Separately, input PPI fell 0.9% month-over-month (-0.5% consensus, 0.2% last) while the year-over-year reading decreased 3.1% (-2.9% expected, -1.0% prior). Also of note, Spain's industrial new order increased 7.8% year-over-year (-3.0% expected, -3.1% prior).

In news, European Central Bank governing council member, Ewald Nowotny, said the central bank will not lower its deposit rate without reducing the key refinance rate.

Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.4% as financials provide support. Barclays, Royal Bank of Scotland, and Standard Chartered are all up between 0.7% and 2.1%. InterContinental Hotels trades lower by 3.5% after reporting disappointing results.
Germany's DAX trades up 0.1% with RWE in the lead. The utility stock is higher by 1.3%. Carmakers lag with BMW and Volkswagen both down near 0.9%.
In France, the CAC is lower by 0.2% as materials and industrials lag. Alstom, Bouygues, Lafarge, and Vallourec are all down between 2.5% and 3.9%. Electricite de France outperforms with a gain of 0.9%.

8:32 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +0.50. The S&P 500 futures have returned below their flat line.

The Empire Manufacturing Survey for February registered a reading of 4.5, which was down from the prior month's unrevised reading of 12.5. Economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to decline to 7.5.

Separately, the December net long-term TIC flows report indicated a $45.9 billion outflow of foreign capital from U.S. denominated assets. This followed the prior month's revised $28.0 billion outflow.

8:02 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.20. U.S. equity futures trade little changed amid subdued overseas action. The S&P 500 futures hover less than three points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. China's Shanghai Composite -0.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.2%, and Japan's Nikkei +3.1% while the dollar/yen pair climbed to 102.50.
In economic data:
China's M2 money stock expanded 13.2% year-over-year (13.3% expected, 13.6% prior) while new loans increased CNY1.32 trillion (CNY1.10 trillion expected, CNY483 billion prior). Separately, FDI increased 16.1% (5.3% prior).
Japan's GDP rose 0.3% quarter-over-quarter (0.7% expected, 0.3% prior) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.0% (2.8% consensus, 1.1% last). Separately, GDP price index fell 0.4% year-over-year (-0.2% expected, -0.3% prior). Also of note, industrial production ticked up 0.9% month-over-month (1.1% expected, 1.1% last) and capacity utilization increased 2.2% month-over-month (-0.5% prior).
Hong Kong's unemployment rate slipped to 3.1% from 3.2% (3.2% expected).
New Zealand's retail sales rose 1.2% quarter-over-quarter (1.6% consensus, 0.2% prior) while core retail sales increased 0.7% (1.2% forecast, -0.2% last).
Australia's new motor vehicle sales fell 3.5% month-over-month (1.4% prior).
Among news of note:
The Bank of Japan made no changes to its interest rate policy or the asset purchase program, but doubled the ceiling on its bank lending facility to JPY7 trillion from JPY3.50 trillion.

Major European indices trade in mixed fashion. Great Britain's FTSE +0.5%, Germany's DAX +0.2%, and France's CAC -0.1%. Elsewhere, Spain's IBEX -0.6% and Italy's MIB +0.2%.
Participants received several economic data points:
Eurozone current account surplus narrowed to EUR21.30 billion from EUR23.30 billion (EUR21.00 billion expected) and ZEW Economic Sentiment fell to 68.5 from 73.3 (73.9 expected).
Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment decreased to 55.7 from 61.7 (61.7 expected). ZEW Current Conditions improved to 50.0 from 41.2 (44.0 forecast).
Great Britain's CPI fell 0.6% month-over-month (-0.5% expected, 0.4% prior) while the year-over-year reading rose 1.9% (2.0% forecast, 2.0% previous). Separately, input PPI fell 0.9% month-over-month (-0.5% consensus, 0.2% last) while the year-over-year reading decreased 3.1% (-2.9% expected, -1.0% prior).
Spain's industrial new order increased 7.8% year-over-year (-3.0% expected, -3.1% prior).
In news:
European Central Bank governing council member, Ewald Nowotny, said the central bank will not lower its deposit rate without reducing the key refinance rate.

In U.S. corporate news:

Coca-Cola (KO 38.75, -0.18): -0.5% after reporting in-line earnings on below-consensus revenue.
Forest Labs (FRX 97.00, +25.61): +35.9% after Actavis (ACT 218.50, +26.62) agreed to acquire the company for $25 billion.
Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 35.17, 0.00): flat after reporting a one-cent beat on above-consensus revenue.

The Empire Manufacturing report for February will be released at 8:30 ET while the December net long-term TIC flows will be announced at 9:00 ET. The day's data will be capped by the February NAHB Housing Market Index, which will be released at 10:00 ET.

6:52 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.20.

6:52 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...14743.24...+450.10...+3.10%. Hang Seng...22587.72...+51.80...+0.20%.

6:52 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6738.13...+2.10...0.00. DAX...9637.89...-18.90...-0.20%.

Dollar Drops to 7-Week Low per Euro Before Fed; Aussie Weakens

By Mariko Ishikawa and Kristine Aquino Feb 18, 2014 8:49 PM ET

The dollar fell to a seven-week low versus the euro before the Federal Reserve releases minutes of its January meeting as investors look for the stance of policy makers on recent economic data.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index headed for its lowest close since December before data today forecast to show U.S. housing starts and building permits fell in January. The pound traded near the highest in more than four years before figures forecast to show the U.K. jobless rate held at the lowest since March 2009. Australia’s dollar retreated from the highest this month as Asian stocks declined and ahead of a gauge of Chinese manufacturing tomorrow forecast to show continued contraction.

“The dollar is being sold especially against the euro,” said Yuki Sakasai, a currency strategist at Barclays Plc in New York. “We need to remain wary of the downside risks to U.S. data. Investors will be looking for Fed’s view on the economy.”

The dollar was little changed at $1.3771 per euro at 10:44 a.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, after earlier touching $1.3773, weakest since Jan. 2. The pound traded at $1.6685 from $1.6684, after reaching the highest since November 2009 at $1.6823 on Feb. 17.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, was little changed at 1,017.01 from 1017.34 yesterday, set for the lowest close since Dec. 17.

Japan’s currency added 0.1 percent to 102.22 per dollar. The yen was at 140.74 per euro from 140.83 yesterday, when it touched 141.03, the weakest since Jan. 29.

Housing Market

U.S. housing starts probably fell 4.9 percent to a 950,000 annualized rate in January following December’s 9.8 percent drop, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the Commerce Department report today. Economists in a separate Bloomberg poll predict building permits decreased 1.6 percent to a 975,000 pace last month from December.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo sentiment gauge slid to 46 this month, from 56 in the prior period, a report showed yesterday. A reading of 50 means the same number of respondents report poor conditions as good.

The Fed Bank of New York’s Empire State manufacturing index fell to 4.48 in February from 12.51 the month before.

The U.S. central bank announced in December it would start paring stimulus by cutting its monthly bond purchases by $10 billion per month, and policy makers decided on another reduction of the same size last month, to $65 billion.

U.K. Labor

In the U.K., the unemployment rate held at 7.1 percent in December from the previous month, matching the lowest since March 2009, the median estimate of economists polled by Bloomberg shows before the Office for National Statistics releases the data today.

The Bank of England will today release minutes of its Feb. 5-6 meeting when policy makers kept the interest rate at a record-low 0.5 percent. Governor Mark Carney last week put spare capacity at the center of interest-rate policy now that unemployment is close to breaching the 7 percent threshold for considering a rate increase, two years earlier than officials projected when forward guidance was introduced in August.

“We may see another tick down in unemployment to the 7 percent level,” Mark Beecroft, the London-based chairman and senior market analyst at Saxo Capital Markets U.K. Ltd. said in a video posted on the company’s website. “I continue to have faith in the strength of the U.K. recovery. That is going to become incredibly startling in profile compared to the flat-line euro zone recovery as the year goes on. So I’d really be pretty positive for sterling over the euro.”

The Aussie fell 0.2 percent to 90.07 U.S. cents from yesterday, when it reached 90.81, the highest since Jan. 13. New Zealand’s dollar slid 0.1 percent to 82.98 U.S. cents.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks declined as much as 0.3 percent.

A flash estimate of China manufacturing PMI was unchanged at 49.5, HSBC and Markit Economics will say tomorrow according to economists in a Bloomberg survey. A reading below 50 indicate contraction.

China is the biggest trading partner of both Australia and New Zealand.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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