TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $480.00 dollars or +4.80 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $480.00 dollars.

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

In addition, all of my trades were posted real-time in the chat room. You can read today's chat room logs for details about each one of my trades via price action trading from entry to exit (e.g. time, price, contract size) along with price action commentary as the trade traversed to its completion...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=126&t=1702

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) my thought process from trade to trade so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell. If you join the chat room and then you do not ask any questions about WRB Analysis in your own trading...the chat room will not be useful to you. Chat room access instructions @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=229&t=2165

-----------------------------

Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

Weak Outlooks Make Investors Nervous


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
The Dow Jones industrial average tumbled Tuesday on cautious guidance from three blue chip companies, but the broader market was supported by shares of two big industrial companies.

Although the Dow ended the day lower, it pared its losses during the afternoon. Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500), Travelers (TRV, Fortune 500) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) all weighed on the 30-stock index. The S&P 500 edged higher thanks to gains in shares of Dow Chemical (DOW, Fortune 500) and former Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500). The Nasdaq also moved higher.

BlackBerry (BBRY) surged amid hopes the smartphone maker's new CEO John Chen will turn the company around. After last year's drubbing, BlackBerry is the best performing stock in CNNMoney's Tech30 Index so far in 2014. The Tech 30 was higher Tuesday, largely due to BlackBerry's big pop.

* Top stock picks from top pros

Stocks have been off to a rocky start in 2014. After last year's big rally, investors are looking for signs the economy will be strong enough to keep the bull market going. But with little economic data on the agenda this week, investors are turning their attention to fourth quarter reports from big U.S. corporations.

Earnings not good enough? Johnson & Johnson reported quarterly results that topped expectations, but shares fell on the company's cautious outlook for 2014. Earnings at Verizon were also better than expected, while revenue growth was in line. Travelers reported strong earnings thanks to lower catastrophe losses.

Delta (DAL, Fortune 500) shares gained after the airline's earnings came in above forecasts. Shares of Halliburton (HAL, Fortune 500) fell despite better-than-expected results. Alcoa shares gained after analysts at JPMorgan upgraded the stock.

After the market closed, IBM (IBM, Fortune 500) reported earnings that topped analysts' expectations. But the stock fell in extended trading as sales missed forecasts. Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Netflix (NFLX) are among the companies due to report results this week.

* Snow can't stop hot airline stocks

Overall, earnings are expected to be up 5.9% in the fourth quarter for the companies in the S&P 500, according to FactSet Research. A few weeks ago, the forecast was for earnings growth of 6.3%, but the estimate was revised lower this week due to disappointing reports, including lower profits in the energy sector.

"So far earnings results have been overall supportive of stock prices even as the market has come under some degree of pressure after a spectacular performance in the year just ended," said John Stoltzfus, chief investment strategist at Oppenheimer.

On the move. BlackBerry's huge surge made it a trending stock on StockTwits, where some investors were feeling vindicated.

* Video - Back in Black-Berry

"$BBRY Patient longs are smiling today as others begin to see the value which was so obvious to some earlier," said zamphir.

Other traders were still dubious.

"$BBRY Can't believe this trash is up," said CramericaSucks.

Expedia (EXPE) shares fell on reports the online travel company has lost 25% of its "search visibility" on the web. But at least one trader was skeptical about the report.

"I don't think it is wise to exit any existing positions in $EXPE based on news from 1 blog. Especially two weeks before earnings," said DanStarr.

Dow Chemical shares jumped after activist investor Dan Loeb's Third Point Capital announced a "significant" stake in the company.

Loeb wants Dow to spin off its petrochemicals business, which he thinks should be cashing in on the U.S. shale gas boom, according to a letter posted on hvst.com. But one trader warned that investors who are blindly following Loeb's lead are being duped.

"$DOW Following one active investor is a 'Sheep Behavior'. He is taking your money," said scottsdalem.

Under Armour (UA) shares jumped after the sports apparel maker announced a 10-year contract as the exclusive outfitter of the University of Notre Dame's 26 varsity teams.

European markets ended mixed. Asian markets rose Tuesday, supported by China's central bank injecting billions into the financial system to boost liquidity. Chinese stocks were also supported by a spate of initial public offerings, which come after Beijing ended a 14-month IPO ban.





4:10 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the abbreviated week on a mixed note as the Nasdaq added 0.7% while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 0.3%. For its part, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% as eight of ten sectors finished in the green.

Stocks began the day with solid gains but the early strength faded quickly when the S&P 500 was unable to extend above the 1850 level during the opening minutes. That rejection emboldened sellers, who promptly drove the indices to their lows. Adding insult to injury was the fact that today's mostly better-than-expected earnings failed to entice buyers.

On that note, 16 out of the 17 companies that reported this morning met or exceeded their Capital IQ consensus estimates. Forest Laboratories (FRX 68.00, -0.74), Halliburton (HAL 49.78, -0.88), and Dow components Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 94.03, -1.03), Travelers (TRV 85.00, -1.47), and Verizon (VZ 47.68, -0.68) all beat estimates but settled lower.

The notable weakness among the three Dow members pressured the price-weighted index, which had to contend with losses in 18 of its 30 components. The second-largest member, IBM (IBM 188.43, -1.66), lost 0.9% ahead of its earnings report set for an after-hours release.

One name that rallied following its earnings beat was Delta Air Lines (DAL 32.08, +1.01). The stock jumped 3.3%, which provided support to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.6%). However, the industrial space was unable to keep pace with the broader market as the top sector component, General Electric (GE 26.29, -0.29), lagged after announcing a pair of acquisitions.

Similar to industrials, consumer discretionary (-0.2%) and financials (+0.1%) lagged while the remaining cyclical groups-energy (+0.5%), materials (+0.6%), and technology (+0.5%)-finished ahead of the broader market. Notably, the materials sector was boosted by Dow Chemical (DOW 45.93, +2.86), which surged 6.6% after Third Point took a big stake in the company and called for a spinoff of its petrochemical business.

On the countercyclical side, telecom services (-0.7%) lagged while consumer staples (+0.3%), health care (+0.5%), and utilities (+1.2%) outperformed. The health care sector received support from biotechnology as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 251.99, +4.56) rose 1.9%. In turn, this also factored into the outperformance of the Nasdaq Composite.

Treasuries ended modestly lower with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 2.83%.

Participation was a bit above average as 740 million shares changed hands at the NYSE.

Tomorrow, the weekly MBA Mortgage Index will be released at 7:00 ET.

Nasdaq +1.2% YTD
Russell 2000 +1.1% YTD
S&P 500 -0.3% YTD
DJIA -1.0% YTD

3:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Commodities were mixed today, with energy trading higher while precious metals chopped around in negative territory.

Feb gold traded lower despite a decline by the dollar index. The yellow metal brushed a session low of $1235.10 per ounce in morning pit trade and spent the remainder of the session trading slightly above that level. It eventually settled with a 0.8% loss at $1241.70 per ounce.

Mar silver also spent the floor session in the red, slipping to a session low of $19.66 per ounce in early morning action. It then trended higher, trimming losses to 2.2% for the day as it settled at $19.85 per ounce.

Mar crude oil chopped around in positive territory, extending Friday's gains. It touched a session high of $95.46 per barrel in morning floor action and eventually settled 0.4% higher at $94.98 per barrel.

Feb natural gas also traded higher, rising as high as $4.45 per MMBtu. With momentum holding steady, it settled with a 2.3% gain at $4.43 per MMBtu.

3:05 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain near their recent levels with one hour remaining in today's session. This morning, investors received seventeen quarterly reports with sixteen matching or exceeding analyst estimates. Despite the majority of above-consensus results, the stock market has not responded in kind.

Following today's closing bell, another seventeen names will release their earnings report with IBM (IBM 189.05, -1.04) headlining the list.

Tomorrow morning, Abbott Labs (ABT 39.09, -0.31), Coach (COH 52.80, +0.24), and United Technologies (UTX 115.27, +1.06) are among the names set to report their results ahead of the open.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices are holding their recent levels as the afternoon continues. Today's session was free of economic data and tomorrow will not be much different with only the weekly MBA Mortgage Index on the schedule.

Participants will receive a fair dose of data on Thursday as four reports appear on the docket. Weekly initial claims (Briefing.com consensus 327,000) will be reported at 8:30 ET while the November FHFA Housing Price Index will be released at 9:00 ET. December Existing Home Sales (consensus 4.90 million) and Leading Indicators (consensus +0.2%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

Similar to today, Friday's session will not include any economic reports.

2:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages find themselves in the midst of a rebound effort that has pushed the S&P 500 ten points off its session low. Despite the recovery, heavily-weighted financials (+0.1%), industrials (-0.1%), and discretionary shares (-0.1%) continue to lag. Similarly, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has yet to claw its way back into positive territory as 19 components remain in the red.

With respect to individual sectors, utilities (+1.0%) and materials (+0.6%) remain in the lead.

1:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] It is a mixed affair today with the broader market struggling to gain upside traction. As noted throughout the day, the noticeable weakness has been concentrated within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, yet the lack of convincing leadership in the broader market has kept buying efforts in check.

Today's best-performing sector is the defensive-oriented (and low weighted) utilities sector (+0.8%), which is behaving well as long-term rates stay down and the rest of the market stays somewhat discombobulated. The utilities sector is up 1.0% year-to-date versus the S&P 500, which is down 0.5%.

The best-performing sector year-to-date, though, is the health care sector (+3.1%), which is up again today (+0.3%).

The 10-yr note is little changed, but that is an underpinning influence as its yield holds at 2.83% versus 3.02% at the end of 2013.

1:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] At midday, the major averages trade in mixed fashion. The Nasdaq holds a modest gain of 0.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%) hovers in the red while the S&P 500 sits near its flat line.

The equity market returned from a three-day weekend on an upbeat note but that did not discourage sellers from making their presence known shortly after the opening bell. The broader market retreated from its opening high even as the vast majority of quarterly reports released today met or beat expectations.

On that note, Delta Air Lines (DAL 31.95, +0.88), Halliburton (HAL 49.92, -0.74), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 93.35, -1.71), Travelers (TRV 84.95, -1.52), and Verizon (VZ 47.22, -1.12) all beat their earnings estimates but Delta is the only name that sports an advance at this juncture.

The relative strength of Delta has given a boost to the Dow Jones Transportation Average (+0.3%), but the broader industrial sector (-0.2%) remains in the red as its largest component (and Dow member), General Electric (GE 26.20, -0.39), weighs.

Speaking of the Dow, the price-weighted index has lagged since the open as 20 of its 30 components display losses. The second-largest index member, Goldman Sachs (GS 172.37, -3.91), has been a notable laggard, trading lower by 2.2%. Fittingly, the financial sector (-0.1%) has struggled to keep pace with the broader market.

Also of note, IBM (IBM 187.76, -2.33) trades lower by 1.2% ahead of this evening's quarterly report.

With stocks trading mixed, participants have shown some demand for volatility protection as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.97, +0.53) trades higher by 4.3%.

Treasuries are little changed after erasing their overnight losses. The benchmark 10-yr yield sits at 2.83%.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has inched back to its flat line but there are still some soft spots among three cyclical sectors-consumer discretionary (-0.4%), financials (-0.2%), and industrials (-0.5%). Meanwhile, the materials sector (+0.6%) outperforms the remaining groups.

Notably, the industrial sector is being pressured by its largest component, General Electric (GE 26.18, -0.40), which trades lower by 1.5%. The remainder of the sector has held up relatively well and the Dow Jones Transportation Average trades higher by 0.1% with support from airlines after Delta Air Lines (DAL 31.89, +0.82) reported above-consensus results.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have recovered all of their overnight losses, pressuring the 10-yr yield back to 2.83%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have ticked up from their worst levels of the day, but the rebound has been anything but robust so far. The Dow (-0.8%) continues to lag while the Nasdaq (+0.1%) outperforms.

The tech-heavy index has received support from some top components and biotechnology. Apple (AAPL 545.27, +4.60), Google (GOOG 1155.64, +5.11), and Qualcomm (QCOM 75.11, +0.38) are up between 0.4% and 0.9% while the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 249.37, +1.94) trades higher by 0.8%.

Thanks to the relative strength of biotech, the health care sector hovers right near its flat line.

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the major averages slide to new lows in a move that put the S&P 500 below Friday's session low. The retreat was broad-based and has been reflected by all ten sectors. Three groups-energy (+0.1%), materials (+0.3%), and utilities (+0.3%)-continue to hover in the green while the remaining seven sectors display losses.

Notably, the discretionary sector (-0.6%) trails the remaining cyclical groups as retailers and homebuilders weigh. The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 82.59, -0.38) trades lower by 0.5%, extending its January loss to 6.3%. Meanwhile, the iShares US Home Construction ETF (ITB 23.85, -0.24) holds a loss of 1.0%.

With stocks on lows, participants have shown considerable interest in volatility protection as the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 13.29, +0.85) trades higher by 6.8%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices remain mixed with the Dow Jones (-0.3%) holding a modest loss while the Nasdaq (+0.4%) and S&P 500 (+0.2%) hover just above their respective flat lines. Broadly speaking, however, all three indices sit at their lowest levels of the session.

Even though earnings reported today were mostly better-than-expected, that has not translated into strength for many of the underlying stocks. On that note, Halliburton (HAL 49.53, -1.13), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 93.00, -2.06), Travelers (TRV 84.70, -1.77), and Verizon (VZ 47.54, -0.81) hold losses between 1.8% and 2.2% despite reporting above-consensus results.

On the downside, SAP (SAP 80.56, -1.76) is the only name that reported a bottom-line miss with the shares trading lower by 2.0% at this juncture.

10:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Commodities are mixed this morning, with precious metals trading lower while energy posts gains.

Feb gold has been in the red all morning, with prices slipping to a floor session low of $1235.10 moments before equity markets opened. It is currently down 1.0% at $1239.70.

Mar silver touched a session low of $19.66 in early morning pit trade but has since inched slightly higher to new session highs. Still, it is down 1.9% at $19.92.

Feb crude oil rose to a session high of $95.20 shortly after pit trade opened and has been chopping around just below that level. It is now at $94.97, or 0.6% higher.

Feb natural gas trended higher to a session high of $4.45 but has pulled back slightly in recent action. It is now up 2.2% at $4.42.

9:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The Nasdaq (+0.7%) and S&P 500 (+0.5%) continue to hover near their early highs while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has trimmed its advance to just 0.1%. Interestingly, the index is being pressured by Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 93.60, -1.46), Travelers (TRV 85.10, -1.37), and Verizon (VZ 47.58, -0.77), all of which display losses in excess of 1.0% despite beating on earnings.

Outside of the three, there are other notable laggards in the Dow. Goldman Sachs (GS 174.01, -2.27) is lower by 1.3% while IBM (IBM 188.96, -1.13) trades down 0.6% ahead of its quarterly report this evening.

9:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages began the session on an upbeat note with nine of ten groups registering opening gains. The telecom sector (-0.7%) is the lone decliner as Verizon (VZ 47.58, -0.77) weighs despite beating on earnings.

The materials sector (+1.2%) has climbed into an early lead with help from a major component, Dow Chemicals (DOW 46.20, +3.13), which trades higher by 7.2% after Third Point announced a $1.30 billion stake in the company. Elsewhere, the other commodity-related sector, energy, outperforms with an advance of 0.7%.

Meanwhile, the remaining cyclical groups trade mixed with respect to the broader market. Industrials (+0.5%) trade just ahead of the S&P 500 while the discretionary sector (+0.2%) lags. Also of note, financials and technology trade in-line with the benchmark index.

9:13 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +10.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.50. The major averages are on track to begin today's session with solid gains as participants return from an extended weekend that was headlined by the release of China's fourth quarter GDP, which rose 1.8% quarter-over-quarter (2.0% expected, 2.2% prior) while the annualized reading increased 7.7% (7.6% forecast, 7.8% last).

The S&P 500 futures trade ten points above fair value with investors reacting to several better-than-expected quarterly reports. On that note, Baker Hughes (BHI 55.35, +1.21), Delta Air Lines (DAL 32.08, +1.01), Halliburton (HAL 51.22, +0.56), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 95.40, +0.34), and Travelers (TRV 86.49, +0.02) all reported above-consensus results. On the downside, SAP (SAP 81.60, -0.72) holds a pre-market loss of 0.9% after coming up short of estimates.

Treasuries trade modestly lower with the 10-yr yield up nearly two basis points at 2.84%.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +8.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.70. The S&P 500 futures trade nine points above fair value.

Markets across Asia ended mostly higher as only Taiwan's Taiex (-0.3%) saw losses. Tuesday trade was supported by a large CNY255 billion injection by the People's Bank of China as the central bank looks to flood the system with liquidity ahead of the Lunar New Year. The long weekend saw the release of the China's latest GDP figure, which pointed to a fourth-quarter rise of 1.8% (2.0% forecast) while the annualized reading increased 7.7% (7.5% expected). In other regional data, Hong Kong's inflation rate held steady at 4.3% year-over-year and Malaysia's unemployment rate ticked up to 3.4% from 3.3%.

Japan's Nikkei gained 1.0% with added support coming from the weaker yen. Exporters were in favor as Toyota Motor added 1.5% and Nikon climbed 1.7%.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng added 0.5% amid a choppy trade. PC maker Lenovo continued its recent outperformance, climbing 2.8%. Meanwhile, financials were strong as Construction Bank of China and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China rallied 3.0% and 2.7%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite advanced 0.9%, marking its first gain in three days as shares edged off five-month lows. Financials were strong after the PBOC action with Shanghai Pudong Development adding 1.0%. On the downside, oil giant CNOOC plunged 5.4% after their production forecast fell well short of previous estimates.

Major European indices hold modest gains after ending the Monday's session little changed. Since Monday, participants received several economic data points. Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 73.3 from 68.3 (70.2 forecast). Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment slipped to 61.7 from 62.0 (64.0 consensus) while the Current Conditions component ticked up to 41.2 from 32.4 (34.1 expected). Separately, PPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (-0.1% previous) while the annualized reading fell 0.5% (-0.8% prior). Both figures met expectations. Italy's Industrial New Orders rose 2.3% month-over-month (1.5% expected, -2.3% previous) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.0% (1.2% last). Spain's Industrial New Orders fell 2.2% year-over-year (0.7% consensus, -4.0% prior). Great Britain's CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -2 from 12 (10 consensus).

Among news of note, Deutsche Bank released its quarterly results ahead of schedule, reporting a larger-than-expected loss and saying it expects headwinds to continue in the coming months. Elsewhere, the leader of Italy's Democratic Party, Gianni Cuperlo, has resigned.

Great Britain's FTSE trades higher by 0.1% with consumer names in the lead. Associated British Foods, Coca-Cola, and Unilever are all up between 2.0% and 3.0%. Miners lag with Anglo American, Randgold Resources, and Rio Tinto all down close to 2.2%.
In France, the CAC holds a gain of 0.3% as financials outperform. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale trade higher by 2.8% and 1.1%, respectively. Industrial name Alstom lags with a loss of 12.8% after cutting its guidance.
Germany's DAX is higher by 0.4% with banks contributing to the advance. Commerzbank trades up 0.8% and Deutsche Bank holds a gain of 1.1%.

8:27 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.20. U.S. equity futures continue to sport solid gains with the S&P 500 futures trading nearly eight points above fair value. With no economic data on today's schedule, participants are reacting to several quarterly reports that have crossed the wires this morning.

Unlike last week, most of the results reported today have come in ahead of expectations. Delta Air Lines (DAL 31.99, +0.92), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 95.61, +0.55) and Travelers (TRV 86.69, +0.23) all beat expectations while software company SAP (SAP 81.52, -0.80) was the only name to report below-consensus results.

8:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +7.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.20. U.S. equity futures hold modest gains with the S&P 500 futures trading seven points above fair value.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng +0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite +0.9%, and Japan's Nikkei +1.0% (Monday: Nikkei -0.6%, Shanghai -0.7%, Hang Seng -0.9%).
Economic data released on Monday:
China's GDP rose 1.8% quarter-over-quarter (2.0% expected, 2.2% prior) while the annualized reading increased 7.7% (7.6% forecast, 7.8% last). Industrial Production rose 9.7% year-over-year (9.8% expected, 10.0% previous), Retail Sales increased an in-line 13.6% year-over-year (13.7% last), and Fixed Asset Investment rose 19.6% year-over-year (19.8% consensus, 19.9% prior). Separately, House Prices jumped 9.9% year-over-year (9.9% prior).
Japan's Industrial Production ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (0.1% forecast, 0.1% last) and Capacity Utilization fell 0.5% month-over-month (1.2% last).
Hong Kong's Unemployment Rate slipped to 3.2% from 3.3% (3.3% expected).
South Korea's PPI ticked up 0.2% month-over-month (-0.2% last) while the year-over-year reading slipped 0.4% (-0.9% last).
Australia's MI Inflation Gauge rose 0.7% month-over-month (0.2% prior).
Tuesday's data:
Hong Kong's CPI rose 4.3% year-over-year, as expected.
New Zealand's CPI ticked up 0.1% quarter-over-quarter (-0.1% expected, 0.9% last) while the year-over-year reading increased 1.6% (1.5% forecast, 1.4% prior).
In news:
The People's Bank of China conducted its largest liquidity injection since February 2013 ahead of next month's Lunar New Year. The one-week Shanghai Interbank Rate eased 79 basis points to 5.535%.

Major European indices hold modest gains. Great Britain's FTSE +0.1%, France's CAC +0.3%, and Germany's DAX +0.3%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +0.5% and Spain's IBEX -0.3% (Monday: FTSE +0.1%, MIB UNCH, IBEX -0.1%, CAC -0.1%, DAX -0.3%).
Economic data from Monday's session:
Germany's PPI ticked up 0.1% month-over-month (-0.1% previous) while the annualized reading fell 0.5% (-0.8% prior). Both figures met expectations.
Italy's Industrial New Orders rose 2.3% month-over-month (1.5% expected, -2.3% previous) while the year-over-year reading increased 3.0% (1.2% last).
Spain's Industrial New Orders fell 2.2% year-over-year (0.7% consensus, -4.0% prior).
Tuesday's data:
Eurozone's ZEW Economic Sentiment rose to 73.3 from 68.3 (70.2 forecast).
Germany's ZEW Economic Sentiment slipped to 61.7 from 62.0 (64.0 consensus) while the Current Conditions component ticked up to 41.2 from 32.4 (34.1 expected).
Great Britain's CBI Industrial Trends Orders fell to -2 from 12 (10 consensus).
Among news of note:
Yesterday's light-volume session was highlighted by Deutsche Bank releasing its quarterly results ahead of schedule. The bank reported a larger-than-expected loss and said it expects headwinds to continue in the coming months.

In U.S. corporate news:

Delta Air Lines (DAL 32.17, +1.10): +3.5% after beating the Capital IQ consensus estimate by one cent.
Forest Laboratories (FRX 72.45, +3.71): +5.4% after reporting better-than-expected results and increasing its fiscal year 2014 guidance above consensus.
Halliburton (HAL 51.48, +0.82): +1.6% following an earnings beat on above-consensus revenue.
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ 95.90, +0.84): +0.9% after the company reported above-consensus earnings and revenue.
SAP (SAP 81.40, -0.92): -1.1% after reporting in-line results.
Travelers (TRV 87.49, +1.02): +1.2% after beating earnings estimates by 52 cents.
Verizon (VZ 48.81, +0.46): +1.0% following its four-cent beat on in-line revenue.

There is no economic data of note on today's schedule.

6:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +18.50.

6:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...15795.96...+154.30...+1.00%. Hang Seng...23033.12...+104.20...+0.50%.

6:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6854.40...+17.70...+0.30%. DAX...9761.01...+45.40...+0.50%.

Gold Target Cut by Morgan Stanley Seeing ‘More Pain to Come

By Glenys Sim Jan 21, 2014 9:26 PM ET

Gold will extend declines this year as gains in equity markets reduce the need for haven assets and increased regulation hurts risk appetite, according to Morgan Stanley, which lowered its bullion forecasts.

The 2014 target was cut 12 percent to $1,160 an ounce and the prediction for 2015 reduced 13 percent to $1,138, analysts Peter Richardson and Joel Crane wrote in a report today. Gold remains under pressure as the global recovery gains traction, increasing the risk of higher interest rates, they wrote.

Bullion’s 12-year bull run ended in 2013 as Federal Reserve policy makers decided to cut monthly bond purchases that fueled gains in asset prices while failing to stoke inflation. Prices sank 28 percent last year, capping the biggest annual decline since 1981. Morgan Stanley’s view adds to bearish forecasts for gold from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to ABN Amro Group NV.

“Price performance will continue to suffer as long as risk assets in general and U.S. equities in particular continue to perform strongly, undermining the need for portfolio managers to hold more than a modicum of safe-haven assets,” the analysts wrote. There’s “more pain to come,” they said.

Gold for immediate delivery traded at $1,242.86 at 10:22 a.m. in Singapore, after averaging $1,410.89 in 2013 and $1,668.75 in 2012. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index posted its biggest annual gain since 1997 last year as holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products shrank 33 percent, or 869 metric tons, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Goldman’s Outlook

Bullion will fall to $1,050 in the next 12 months as the U.S. central bank reduces monetary stimulus, Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a Jan. 12 report. Gold may end 2014 at $1,000 an ounce, ABN forecast Jan. 10.

Assets in ETPs will contract a further 200 tons this year and 150 tons in 2015, said Morgan Stanley. While lower prices may boost physical demand in China, that won’t reverse the slump spurred by investors reducing their net-long position in futures and cutting ETP holdings, Richardson and Crane wrote.

Increased demand in China, which probably overtook India as the world’s largest consumer last year, helped gold rebound from a six-month low of $1,182.52 on Dec. 31. China imported 1,017 tons of gold from Hong Kong in the first 11 months of 2013, almost double 2012’s total, Hong Kong government data show.

Federal Reserve policy makers meet Jan. 28-29 after deciding at their gathering last month to cut monthly bond purchases as the U.S. economy improved. The Fed’s benchmark interest rate will rise in 2015, Olivier Blanchard, the International Monetary Fund chief economist said yesterday.

London Fixing

Banks are considering an overhaul of London’s century-old gold benchmark, according to a person with knowledge of the process, as Deutsche Bank AG last week said it will withdraw from fixings as it scales back its commodities business. The method has faced scrutiny in recent months, with regulators in London, Bonn and Washington investigating how prices are set.

“Mounting regulatory pressures on investment banks operating in commodity markets, with an anticipated reduction in large-scale speculative activity and turnover, have also been increasingly reflected in lower gold prices” as risk appetites decline, said the Morgan Stanley analysts.

Goldman expects further downside for gold prices this year as the U.S. central bank continues to reduce its accommodative monetary policy, analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin wrote in the Jan. 12 report. Currie said in October that gold is a slam-dunk sell for this year.

Morgan Stanley lowered its 2014 silver forecast 10 percent to $19 an ounce, and trimmed the 2015 estimate 13 percent to $18.86, according to the report. Palladium remains the “stand-out preference” among precious metals as supply is expected to lag behind consumption, the analysts wrote.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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