TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)


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Trade Performance for Today: +2.50 points or $125 dollars in the S&P 500 Emini ES ($ES_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and to find out more contract information about the S&P 500 Emini ES...click here.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=84&t=697

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=128&t=854

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

CNNMoney.com - Stocks Give Up Gains, End Mixed

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By Ben Rooney, staff reporter
December 7, 2010: 9:26 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks gave back earlier gains to end mixed Tuesday, as investor optimism over the extension of Bush-era tax cuts gave way to speculation about a widening federal probe into insider trading.

A spike in Treasury yields also tempered enthusiasm.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 3 points, or less than 0.1%, to close at 11,359. The S&P 500 (SPX) ended little changed at 1,224, after climbing to a 2-year high during active trading. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (COMP) rose 3 points, or 0.1%, to 2,598.

Stocks held gains for most of the day as investors welcomed news that President Obama had reached a deal with Republican lawmakers Monday that would extend Bush-era tax cuts for two years and unemployment benefits for 13 months. It would also lower the payroll tax by two percentage points for a year.

But the momentum faded late in the day after Obama, who had wanted the cuts for high-earning taxpayers to expire, said in a press conference that he would push to have them eliminated after the two-year extension is over.

"This gives us the time to have this political battle without having the same casualties for the American people," he said.

Obama said the compromise was necessary to prevent taxes from going up for middle-class taxpayers. But it also reflects the newfound clout Republicans have on Capitol Hill following last month's upset in the midterm elections.

Peter Boockvar, chief market strategist with Miller Taback & Co., said the market turned lower following a report that the government's crackdown on insider trading is accelerating. But he said investors were also nervous about a major sell-off in the bond market.

"I think it has more to do with the shellacking in the bond market," he said. While the deal to extend tax cuts was a positive, "investors can't ignore the spike in interest rates," he added.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to its highest level since June, stoking worries that a rising interest rates could slow the sluggish economic recovery.

Stocks ended Monday's session mixed after drifting around breakeven for most of the day. Investors spent most of the day mulling over Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke's pessimistic comments about the nation's economy.

Companies: Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) agreed to pay $137 million in fines to federal and state regulators to settle charges of bid rigging in the municipal bond derivatives market. Shares rose 0.5%.

The Treasury Department said Monday afternoon it planned to sell 2.4 billion Citi (C, Fortune 500) common shares, priced at $4.35 a share.

That gives the government a $12 billion profit, including dividends and interest payments, on its $45 billion Citi bailout. Company stock rose 14 cents, or 4%, to $4.60 per share.

3M (MMM, Fortune 500) said it expects full-year earnings will be between $5.90 and $6.10 per share in 2011, on sales of up to $30.5 billion. Analysts had been expecting earnings of $6.20 per share, according to consensus estimates from Thomson Reuters. Shares of the company fell 3%.

AGL Resources (AGL) and Nicor Inc. (GAS) announced a merger creating a leading U.S. natural gas distribution company. The combined company will be known as AGL Resources. Shares of AGL were down 5.8%, while shares of Nicor rallied 4%.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose versus the euro and the yen, but remained weak against the U.K. pound.

Oil for January delivery fell 69 cents to end at $88.69 a barrel. Earlier, prices rose above $90 a barrel for the first time since October 2008.

Gold futures for February delivery fell $7.10 to settle at $1,409 an ounce, after reaching a new intraday high of $1,432.50 earlier in the session. Gold settled at a record $1,416.10 an ounce Monday.

Silver for March delivery gained 51 cents, or 1.7%, to $30.25 an ounce. Earlier in the session, silver topped $30.75 an ounce -- a new 30-year high.

* Video - Red Hot Metals Could Burn Investors

World markets: European stocks ended higher. Britain's FTSE 100 added 0.9%, the DAX in Germany gained 0.8%, and France's CAC 40 surged 1.9%.

Asian markets ended the session mixed. The Shanghai Composite added 0.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong jumped 0.8%, while Japan's Nikkei shaved 0.3%.

Economy: Consumer credit increased $3.3 billion in October, according to the Federal Reserve. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected a $2.5 billion decrease. This follows September's $2.1 billion increase in consumer credit.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell, pushing the yield up to 3.16% -- a level not seen since late June.



Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:15 pm : News of extended tax cuts helped send the stock market to a new two-year high in the first few minutes of trade, but gains were eventually slashed so that stocks settled flat.

Last evening the White House made preliminary agreements with congressional officials to extend income and dividend tax cuts, as well as payroll taxes and unemployment benefits. Although the legislative process still has to play out, the reaction among market participants this morning was decidedly positive. Improved confidence on the part of investors rekindled the risk trade.

Support for stocks sent both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to new two-year highs, but the Dow stalled just a point below its November peak. Natural resource plays made some of the biggest bounces this morning; both the materials sector and the energy sector were up as much as 1.4%. Buying therein was further bolstered by strength among commodities.

The CRB Commodity Index was up more than 1% to a new two-year high during early trade, but it didn't take long for traders to take profits and send the Index to a 0.5% loss. Gold prices ended the day down 0.5% to $1409.00 per ounce after the continuous gold contract hit a new all time high of $1431.10 per ounce. Silver prices settled with a 0.5% gain at $29.78 per ounce after they had been at a 30-year high of $30.75 per ounce. Oil prices were clipped from a two-year high of $90.76 per barrel to settle pit trade with a 0.8% loss at $88.69 per barrel.

Stocks also fought sellers through the morning, but pressure didn't really intensify until the final hour of trade. A near eight-point drop in the S&P 500 during the course of about 40 minutes coincided with the dollar's push to a session high, or gain of 0.3%, which is right about where it was at the close. The greenback had been down 0.6% at its session low.

The stock market's afternoon slide began just before the release of consumer credit data for October. Total consumer credit climbed $3.4 billion, which is a surprise since the consensus among economists surveyed by Briefing.com had called for a $2.5 billion decline. Consumer credit for September was revised downward to reflect a $1.2 billion increase.

Though support for stocks waned late in the session, Treasuries were spurned for the entire day. So severe was the selling effort that the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note surged more than 25 basis points before it eased back a bit to 3.13%, which makes for its highest closing level since July.

There were no corporate announcements of broad consequence today, although it is worth mention that NICOR (GAS 48.79, +2.03) and AGL Resources (AGL 34.98, -2.15) will merge in an $8.6 billion transaction. Meanwhile, auto parts retailers AutoZone (AZO 260.15, -1.76) and Pep Boys (PBY 13.57, +0.61) posted pleasing quarterly results, though their shares finished mixed.

Share volume was robust this session. In fact, more than 1.6 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. That's the greatest tally since September and more than 50% greater than the 50-day moving average on the Big Board.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+0.5%), Consumer Staples (+0.4%), Telecom (+0.4%), Materials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Utilities (-0.5%), Energy (-0.3%)
Unchanged: Tech, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, FinancialDJ30 -3.03 NASDAQ +3.57 NQ100 +0.0% R2K +1.1% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +0.63 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1485/1.91 bln/1162 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1496/1.63 bln/1485

3:30 pm : Commodities finished lower today, led lower by soft commodities. Orange juice shed 2.1%, following yesterday's 4.8% move. Concerns about a potential freeze in Florida have caused volatility in orange juice futures the past two sessions.

Precious metals finished with a modest 0.1% gain today, after both gold and silver sold off from their respective highs, pressured by a rally in the dollar. Feb gold finished lower by 0.5% to $1409.00 per ounce. The continuous gold contract traded to a new all time high, earlier today, at $1431.10. March silver ended up 0.5% to $29.78 per ounce. Earlier in the session, silver traded to a fresh 30-yr high at $30.75.

Energy finished the session with a 0.8% decline. Jan crude oil closed off 0.8% to $88.69 per barrel. It traded to its best levels at $90.76, in morning trade, before selling off. It extended that sell off into the afternoon and closed just above its lows at $88.34. Jan natural gas closed off 1.9% to $4.39 per MMBtu, after selling off from the flat line into afternoon trade. DJ30 +7.79 NASDAQ +6.63 SP500 +1.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1490/1.5 bln/1145 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1532/984.8 mln/1441

3:00 pm : Stocks have been sliding in the past few minutes, though there has been no headline to account for the move lower. Nonetheless, the downturn has taken the S&P 500 and the Dow to new session lows, but the Nasdaq has yet to breech the depths that were set this morning.

Consumer credit data for October were just released. Total consumer credit climbed $3.4 billion, which is a surprise since economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that consumer credit would decline by $2.5 billion. Consumer credit for September was revised downward to reflect a $1.2 billion increase. DJ30 +31.41 NASDAQ +15.00 SP500 +4.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1615/1.39 bln/1006 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1733/888 mln/1222

2:30 pm : Following news this morning that President Obama has made efforts to extend Bush tax cuts and unemployment benefits, the President is currently holding a press conference. So far, he has stated that the extension of high end tax breaks is temporary, not permanent. Obama reiterated that he will still fight to end high end tax breaks in two years. Stocks have not shown any reaction to the statements. DJ30 +61.14 NASDAQ +21.66 SP500 +8.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1724/1.26 bln/889 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1947/812 mln/1020

2:00 pm : Small-cap stocks are outperforming for the second straight session as the Russell 2000 sports a 1.7% gain. That's more than double what the S&P 500 has managed to put together.

Small-cap plays are currently led by Gerova Financial (GFC 27.58, +6.08), which announced a definitive agreement to acquire Seymour Pierce. The newly formed entity will be renamed Seymour Pierce & Co and will trade under ticker SPI. Borders Group (BGP 1.36, -0.03) had been a leader in the prior session, but it has eased back today. DJ30 +65.24 NASDAQ +21.03 SP500 +8.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1712/1.16 bln/877 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1934/765 mln/995

1:30 pm : Stocks are reclaiming gains in broad-based fashion. Industrials are still out in front as the sector now sports a 1.2% gain.

Treasuries have moved even lower in recent trade. Their slide has sent the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note up past 3.10% to 3.13% for the first time since mid-July. The Note's yield is up close to 20 basis points today.

Treasuries certainly haven't been helped by the latest Treasury auction, which had its results posted at 1:00 PM ET. Dollar demand for the auction of 3-year Notes totaled $93.1 billion, which is the weakest since July 2009. The auction's bid-to-cover came in at 2.9 and the indirect bidder participation rate hit 36.7%. For comparison, the average of the three past auctions had dollar demand on the order of $101.6 billion, a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.14 and an indirect bidder participation rate of 35.5%. DJ30 +62.66 NASDAQ +18.33 SP500 +7.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1665/1.07 bln/910 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1920/718 mln/1016

1:00 pm : Both stocks and commodities were bid to new highs in the early going. However, while strength among equities has waned, sentiment in the commodity pits has almost completely soured.

The S&P 500 shot up about 1% to a new 26-month high in the first few minutes of trade as the risk trade turned back on after a pause in the prior session. The buying came largely in response to news that President Obama has made agreements with congressional officials to extend income and dividend tax cuts, as well as payroll taxes and unemployment benefits.

Commodities also caught a strong bid in early trade. As gold advanced to a new record high, silver set a 30-year high, and crude oil climbed to a two-year high, the CRB Commodity Index registered its own two-year best.

However, both stocks and commodities have been getting clipped over the past couple of hours. Selling has been partly fueled by a bounce in the Dollar Index, which had been down as much as 0.6%, but has since erased that loss so that it is now flat. The dollar's upturn has cut the stock market's gain in half while the CRB Commodity Index has fallen to a 0.5% loss after it had been up as much as 1.1%.

Even as stocks surrender gains and commodities slide into the red, safety seekers have yet to provide any support to Treasuries. Persistent pressure has kept the benchmark 10-year Note down for about a point or more all day. That has its yield approaching 3.10%, which has not been seen since July. DJ30 +53.62 NASDAQ +17.02 SP500 +6.99 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1643/995 mln/929 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1836/664 mln/1078

12:30 pm : Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have slipped to fresh session lows. The Nasdaq has also been pushed down a bit, but it still isn't yet back to its worst level of the day.

Industrial stocks have been resilient in the face of the broader market's backslide. Collectively they are still up 0.8%, which is double the S&P 500's gain. Deere & Co. (DE 81.15, +2.11) has been a steady leader in the group today. It even set a new two-year high less than an hour ago. In contrast, 3M (MMM 83.95, -2.93) has been one of the sector's worst laggards after the company reaffirmed its fiscal 2010 outlook, but issued a disappointing forecast for 2011. DJ30 +40.22 NASDAQ +14.89 SP500 +5.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1630/920 mln/927 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1789/618 mln/1127

12:00 pm : Stocks in the broader market continue to plod along near session lows. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to make up ground as it now trades with only a fractional loss against competing currencies.

The tone has weakened much more considerably in the commodity pits. The general deterioration of sentiment there has the CRB Commodity Index down to a 0.3% loss, which marks a session fresh low, after it had been up more than 1% earlier. DJ30 +50.06 NASDAQ +16.91 SP500 +6.45 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1696/530 mln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1856/549 mln/1045

11:30 am : The broader market has eased back a couple of more points so that its gain has become more moderate. Still, all 10 major sectors remain in positive territory, providing the stock market with wide ranging support.

Though the S&P 500 is back near its session low, Treasuries have yet to secure any kind of relief from their dive today. Steady pressure in the space has the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note approaching 3.10%, which has not been seen since summer. DJ30 +52.03 NASDAQ +15.86 SP500 +6.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1679/733 mln/833 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1888/489 mln/998

11:00 am : Stocks have stabilized since seeing their opening gains slashed in half. Though stocks are well off of their session highs, the overall tone of trade remains positive as advancing issues outnumber decliners by more than 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

Part of the stock market's recent pullback is owed to a bounce by the dollar. At its morning low the greenback trailed a basket of competing currencies by as much as 0.6%, but it has since pared that loss to less than 0.2%.

The dollar's upward push has also clipped commodities. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is now up just 0.2% after it had been up more than 1% to a new two-year high earlier this morning. DJ30 +61.91 NASDAQ +16.65 SP500 +7.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1643/620 mln/844 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1901/410 mln/931

10:35 am : Weakness in the dollar index has sent most commodities higher this morning with copper and silver the top two best performers in the CRB Commodity Index this morning.

January crude oil has pulled back off its session highs of $90.76 per barrel, hit just before the open of pit trade, giving back all of its morning gains. It's now 0.4% lower at $89.00 per ounce. January natural gas has been choppy in the last few hours, trading close to the unchanged line. It's currently barely above the flat line at $4.50 per MMBtu.

Precious metals pulled back hard in recent activity, coming down from new highs. February gold has given back all of its gains after hitting a new contract high of $1432.50 per ounce earlier this morning. Continuous gold futures traded to a new all-time high of $1431.10 per ounce. February gold, the most active gold contract, is now in the red, down 0.2% at $1413.80 per ounce. The continuous silver futures contract put in a new 30-year high at $30.69. Currently, March silver is now 1.5% higher at $30.17 per ounce.DJ30 +55.21 NASDAQ +12.61 SP500 +5.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1624/511.5 mln/813 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1867/350.2 mln/955

10:00 am : The Nasdaq Composite has handed back some of its early gain. It is still up nicely since the prior session's close, though.

The Nasdaq is currently led by large-cap tech issues like Google (GOOG 590.52, +12.16), Apple (AAPL 322.18, +2.03), Cisco (CSCO 19.58, +0.15), and Oracle (ORCL 29.05, +0.31). However, some of the biotech and biopharmaceutical plays in the Index have displayed early weakness. Specifically, Geron (GERN 5.08, -1.04) is down sharply after it announced last evening that it is willing to sell shares in an underwritten public offering and also disclosed a licensing agreement with Angiochem.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+0.9%), Tech (+0.8%), Consumer Staples (+0.7%), Financials (+0.7%), Utilities (+0.7%), Health Care (+0.6%), Telecom (+0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.6%), Energy (+0.5%), Materials (+0.5%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +74.17 NASDAQ +18.52 SP500 +8.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/300 mln/642 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2031/240 mln/722

09:45 am : A gap up at the open put the S&P 500 at a new two-year high of 1235. Buying has been broad based with all 10 major sectors in higher ground.

Materials stocks, up 1.2%, make up the best performing sector. That space is currently led by steel stocks (+2.6%) and diversified metals and mining plays (+3.0%).

Retailers are also sporting some strong gains in early action. Collectively they are up 1.2%. AutoZone (AZO 267.32, +5.41) is a standout in the space after the firm posted for its latest quarter better-than-expected earnings. Fellow auto retailer Pep Boys (PBY 13.70, +0.74) is also up big after it posted pleasing quarterly results of its own. DJ30 +86.39 NASDAQ +24.91 SP500 +11.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/178 mln/486 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2209/180 mln/488

09:15 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +24.30. Stock futures suggest that the broader equity market will start the session with a gain of about 1%. Such a heady move would put the S&P 500 at a new two-year high. Commodities are collectively putting in a two-year high, too, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index. The want for riskier holdings follows President Obama's announcement of plans to extend income and dividend tax cuts, as well as payroll taxes and unemployment benefits. Confidence among morning participants has, as a result, fueled renewed selling pressure against the dollar and a marked drop among Treasuries. More specifically, the greenback is off by 0.5% against a basket of competing currencies and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note has approached 3.05%, which makes for its highest level since July.

09:05 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +26.00. Renewed weakness in the dollar has stoked further buying among commodities. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.0%, which puts the CRB at a fractionally improved two-year high. Underpinning that move is a 1.0% gain by gold prices to trade at $1431 per ounce, which makes for a record high in the continuous contract. Meanwhile, continuous contracts for silver are pricing the precious metal 3.3% higher at $30.69 per ounce, a new 30-year high. Oil has caught a bid after it lagged in the prior session. The energy component is currently up 1.3% to $90.50 per barrel in the continuous contract. The price marks a new two-year high.

08:35 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +12.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +25.80. Futures for the S&P 500 are at their best level of the morning. Europe's major bourses also continue to build on their gains. As such, Germany's DAX is now up 1.1%. It has been led by basic materials plays, which are collectively up 2.1%. Consumer staples stocks have lagged as they make up the only major sector to trade with a loss. They are collectively down 0.2%. In France, the CAC is up 2.1% as all 40 of its components sports a gain. The strongest moves have been made by Total (TOT), BNP Paribas, and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY). Britain's FTSE is up 1.2% as natural resource plays Rio Tinto (RIO), BHP Billiton (BHP), BP Plc (BP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) stage strong gains. Their leadership has the materials sector up 2.9% and the energy sector up 1.9%. Declining issues are limited in scope and weakness. In data, United Kingdom industrial production during October slipped 0.2% after a 0.4% increase in September. However, manufacturing production in October increased 0.3% after a 0.2% increase in September.

Overnight action in Asia was more mixed. Japan's Nikkei fell to a 0.3% loss. Honda Motor (HMC) was a primary source of weakness, which offset strength in Advantest. The Shanghai Composite of mainland China put together a 0.7% gain. Zijin Mining and Yanzhou Coal were leading issues while Industrial & Commercial Bank and China Petroleum (SNP) hampered action. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced for a 0.8% gain. Heavyweights China Construction Bank, Bank of China, and China Mobile provided the necessary leadership to offset weakness in Swire Pacific, Esprit Holdings, and Sino Land.

08:05 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +11.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +21.50. Stock futures are up sharply after a strong, early morning ascent. The bid follows an agreement last evening at the White House to extend both Bush tax cuts and unemployment benefits. Additionally, payroll taxes will be reduced and business investments will receive better tax treatment. Meanwhile, the dollar has given back its gain from the prior session. Its slide to a 0.4% loss has come largely against the euro. Europe's major bourses are also currently in strong shape. Outside of an $8.6 billion merger between Nicor (GAS) and AGL Resources (AGL), corporate news has been mostly inconsequential. There isn't much on the economic calendar today - only the latest in consumer credit will be released at 3:00 PM ET. Before that, though, results from an auction of 3-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

06:44 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +11.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +20.80.

06:44 am : Nikkei...10141.10...-26.10...-0.30%. Hang Seng...23428.15...+190.50...+0.80%.

06:44 am : FTSE...5836.90...+66.60...+1.20%. DAX...7032.92...+78.60...+1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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