Post subject: May 17th Monday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +61.00
Posted: Tue May 18, 2010 1:01 am
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm Posts: 4341 Location: Canada
Trade Journal By M.A. Perry Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.
Today's results are 11 wins : 4 losses. The VXX (iPath exchange traded fund) gap at the open to the upside. This is one key to my position size management and the VXX gap gives me clues that volatility will be high enough to allow either increased position size, increased trade opportunities, bigger profits via letting trades go beyond profit targets or any combo just mentioned. Today I was aggressive and caught a few runners in my position size management as a reaction to the VXX gap. However, I had two trade management errors that kepted me from making about 15 points more.
The key trade of the day was my first trade (see #FuturesTrades log) and it was a trade signal via the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).
Trading Tip: Position size management is a key to increasing profits without making any changes to the entry/exit strategy.
FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks erased losses and finished higher Monday after the euro rebounded from a four-year low and gained ground against the dollar, despite lingering worries about Europe's financial crisis.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) erased its 184-point loss and added 6 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1 point, or 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) gained 7 points, or 0.3%.
Before posting gains, all three indexes were more than 1% lower but began to trim losses with an hour left in the session.
Earlier on Monday, the euro sank below $1.23, as debt concerns weighed on investors. But the currency recovered its losses late in the afternoon.
U.S. stocks tumbled Friday, as the Dow lost 1.5%, and S&P 500 and Nasdaq slipped about 2% on a weak euro.
Investors remained concerned about soaring deficits throughout Europe despite the $1 trillion aid package for Greece and other debt-ridden nations that had triggered a rally in stocks early last week. Despite Friday's decline, the three major indexes ended higher for the week. Why Europe may kill the U.S. recovery
"Investors are trying to figure out how appropriately a slowdown in the euro zone is priced in," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.
Hogan expected stocks to move into positive territory as investors digest strong corporate earnings and a steady stream of economic data, which has been overshadowed by Europe's sovereign debt problems.
But the afternoon turnaround was also spurred by bargain hunting, said Kenny Landgraf, founder of Kenjol Capital Management.
"Stocks went down to the lows they saw last week, but didn't break break below those technical levels as money came back into the market," Landgraf said.
But stocks will continue on their roller coaster through the summer as Europe manages its fiscal crisis said Clark Capital Management Group Chief Executive Harry Clark. He doesn't expects U.S. markets to begin trending upward until the fall.
Economy: A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York showed that manufacturing growth slowed in the region in May. The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's index fell to 19.1 from 31.9 in April. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected the index to slip modestly to 30.
The Treasury said China boosted its holdings of U.S. debt in March for the first time in six months, increasing them by 2% to $895.2 billion. With mounting concerns over European debt and a strengthening U.S. economy, overall foreign holdings of Treasury securities rose by 3.5% to $3.88 trillion.
Companies: General Motors posted its first quarterly profit in nearly three years, earning $865 million on revenue of $31.5 billion. After emerging from bankruptcy last July, the company has trimmed costs and increased sales thanks to an improving economy and recall troubles at rival Toyota.
Hope improvement retailer Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500) posted a profit that rose 2.7% from a year earlier and topped expectations as demand for big-ticket items improved. But the company's forecast for the second quarter came in lower than expectations, and shares of the retailer finished 3% lower. Bad news for Europe, good news for U.S. tourists
World markets: European stocks finished mixed, with France's CAC 40 down 0.5%, Germany's DAX 0.2% higher and Britain's FTSE 100 lower less than 0.1%. 0:00 /2:04Gold ATM debuts in Abu Dhabi
Asian markets finished the session lower. The decline was led by China, where the Shanghai Composite sank 5.1%. Japan's Nikkei ended 2.2% lower and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 2.1%.
Dollar and commodities: : After holding firm against the euro most of the day, the dollar fell 0.3% late in the afternoon. But the greenback was 0.3% higher against the the British pound and rose 0.1% versus the Japanese yen.
U.S. light crude oil for June delivery slid $1.53, or 2.1% to settle at $70.08 a barrel -- a five-month high.
Gold prices continued to rise, gaining 70 cents, or 0.1%, to settle at $1,228.50 per ounce.
Bonds: Treasury prices gave up gains Monday afternoon. The price of benchmark 10-year note edged lower, and its yield edged up to 3.49%. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.
4:30 pm : The stock market drifted from a modest gain in the early going to a loss of more than 1%, but market participants gradually bid stocks higher in the second half of the session. In the end, the three major indices settled with slight gains.
Sellers showed strength for the first part of the session. Their efforts had taken more than 80% of the names in the S&P 500 into negative territory. Cyclical stocks seemed to be their primary target as materials, industrials, and financials all fell to a loss of more than 1%. Energy stocks saw some of the worst price action as they dropped more than 2% -- the energy sector's slide was exacerbated by continued weakness in oil prices, which fell to a three-month low and closed pit trade with a 2.1% loss at $70.08 per barrel.
However, buyers started to step back in and helped energy stocks cut their losses. The sector still finished with a 1.0% loss, but that was less than half the loss that the sector had seen at its session low.
Meanwhile, materials stocks settled with just a 0.2% loss. Industrials closed 0.3% lower and financials finished flat. Financials were helped by strength among consumer finance plays, a few of which reported improvements in their monthly delinquency metrics. A few big banks also saw some improvement in their monthly credit card metrics.
Shares of home improvement retailers had been down almost 4%. They were hurt by broader market weakness and what was deemed a lackluster latest quarterly report Lowe's (LOW 25.08, -0.99). The company posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings, but its guidance was uninspiring. However, shares home improvement retailers were able to finish with a modest 0.4% loss.
While support for cyclical plays eventually surfaced, buyers still favored defensive-oriented telecom (+1.2%) and consumer staples (+0.9%).
The afternoon recovery came as the greenback gave up nearly all of its gain for the session. It had set a fresh 52-week high in overnight trade, but it finished with only a fractional gain. Its pullback was partly owed to the euro's rally from a multiyear low of 1.2235 per dollar to a 0.3% gain against the dollar at 1.2397 per dollar.
3:30 pm : Commodities came under sharp pressure this session. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index fell 2.1% to a new seven-month low.
Oil prices were particularly weak. The energy component set a fresh three-month low of $69.27 per barrel before it closed pit trade with a 2.1% loss at $70.08 per barrel.
Natural gas prices garnered support, though. Contracts for the commodity closed pit trade priced at $4.34 per MMBtu, up 0.5%.
As for precious metals, silver prices slumped to a 1.7% loss at $18.91 per ounce. Gold had a lackluster finish to pit trade, though it moved in a $15-trading range this session; the yellow metal settled flat at $1227.30 per ounce. DJ30 -63.71 NASDAQ -11.58 SP500 -7.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 964/1.95 bln/1733 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 792/1.07 bln/2275
3:00 pm : Stocks recently chopped their way to afternoon highs. The broader market now trades with a loss that is roughly one quarter of the loss that it had contended with at its session low. Despite that, energy stocks are still down 1.2%, financial issues contend with a 1.0% loss, and industrial stocks trade 0.9% lower.
Volume has been strong. In fact, nearly 1 billion shares have already exchanged hands on the NYSE and there is still an hour left in this session -- the final hour often ushers in a strong rush of share volume. DJ30 -54.49 NASDAQ -9.18 SP500 -6..05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 973/1.75 bln/1700 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 776/957 mln/2263
2:30 pm : The stock market has run into resistance during each of its past few attempts to make an upward turn. That has kept stocks well into negative territory with broad-based losses. Still, stocks are up from their session low.
Treasuries have given up their gains. The benchmark 10-year Note is now flat after it had sported a doulble-digit tick gain and the 30-year Bond is also flat after it had been up nearly one full point. DJ30 -87.44 NASDAQ -17.33 SP500 -9.78 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 769/1.62 bln/1893 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 598/880 mln/2452
2:00 pm : Consumer staples stocks and telecom stocks make up the only two sectors that currently trade with gains. They are up 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Though they both trade with modest strength this session, their year-to-date performance is quite different in that consumer staples stocks are up nearly 3% since the start of the year and telecom stocks are down more than 8% in 2010.
Volatility has increased amid this session's selling effort. In turn, the Volatility Index is up more than 5% at the moment. DJ30 -102.56 NASDAQ -19.80 SP500 -11.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 740/1.49 bln/1913 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 537/809 mln/2500
1:30 pm : A recent flurry of buying has pushed the stock market up to its best level of the afternoon. However, weakness remains widespread.
Treasuries have pared their gains. More specifically, the benchmark 10-year Note is now up just five ticks so that its yield is up to 3.43% after it had been below 3.40% earlier this morning. DJ30 -100.44 NASDAQ -21.88 SP500 -11.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 723/1.37 bln/1919 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 562/745 mln/2466
1:00 pm : Stocks staged a modest advance in the first few minutes of trade, but the move proved unsustainable as sellers quickly stepped in to re-establish their control.
Keeping with the recent trend of trade, stocks are down firmly with broad-based losses. This session's slide marks the third straight loss of at least 1% for the S&P 500.
The latest round of selling has targeted cyclical plays, like materials stocks (-1.9%), financial issues (-2.1%), and energy stocks (-2.4%).
The energy sector's loss is the worst of any major sector in the S&P 500. Its slide has been exacerbated by continued pressure against oil prices, which now stand near new three-month lows with a 2.4% loss at $69.90 per barrel.
Consumer staples, regarded as defensive oriented, have managed to hold up relatively well this session. The sector is currently flat while more than 80% of the broader market contends with a loss.
There haven't been any direct headlines to account for the latest string of weakness, but concerns about the health of the eurozone and the viability of the euro continue to loom. Amid such concern the euro actually retreated to a multiyear low of 1.2235 per dollar this morning. It recovered that loss later in the morning, but it is now back to a 0.3% loss at 1.2315 per dollar.
The British pound continues to come under pressure, too. It was last quoted with a 0.8% loss at 1.4420 per dollar.
Such weakness among overseas currencies continues to drive the dollar to new highs. The Dollar Index is currently up 0.5%, though that is a bit off of its overnight high. The dollar has set new 52-week highs in three straight sessions.
Corporate news has been generally shrugged off. Lowe's (LOW 25.08, -0.99) stood out from a small set of earnings announcements with better-than-expected earnings, but its guidance was uninspiring. Meanwhile, there were several small-scale mergers and acquisitions, including an acquisition of OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP 57.34, -2.46) by Astellas Pharma and an acquisition of GLG Partners (GLG 4.34, +1.43) by Man Group Plc. DJ30 -135.85 NASDAQ -32.08 SP500 -16.80 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 617/1.27 bln/2003 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 426/692 mln/2599
12:30 pm : The S&P 500 has bounced up from the 1115 line, but it continues to trade with a stiff, broad-based loss. Even consumer staples stocks, which had traded with enviable gains in the early going have fallen to a fractional loss.
Cyclical plays remain under the most pressure. As such, energy stocks are down 2.4%, materials stocks are down 2.0%, and financials are down 2.0%. DJ30 -136.72 NASDAQ -29.53 SP500 -15.66 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 651/1.14 bln/1956 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 432/612 mln/2571
12:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently steadied at the 1125 line, but it has since fallen under renewed pressure. Such selling has taken the stock market to a fresh session low and its lowest level in exactly one week.
Treasuries have garnered support amid the stock market's slide. The benchmark 10-year Note is now up 14 ticks so that its yield is below 3.40%. DJ30 -157.80 NASDAQ -33.63 SP500 -17.20 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 718/963 mln/1874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 486/515 mln/2497
11:30 am : Choppy trade has given way to a broad-based slide. The major indices now sit at fresh session lows, which align with the lows that were registered this past Friday.
Commodities have also come under a wave of selling. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is down 1.6%. Oil has been the primary target of many commodity traders; the energy component is now down 2.4% to $69.90 per barrel, which marks a three-month intraday low.
Weakness in the broader market and sharply lower oil prices have put considerable pressure on energy stocks. The energy sector is now down 1.8%, which makes it the worst performing sector. DJ30 -76.48 NASDAQ -15.75 SP500 -8.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 862/825 mln/1693 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 713/430 mln/2224
11:00 am : Action in the stock market has become quite choppy. Without any sort of clear direction, the major indices are mixed.
Consumer staples stocks are up an enviable 0.7%. The sector's strength comes as market participants prop up shares of Procter & Gamble (PG 63.27, +0.73) and Colgate-Palmolive (CL 84.13, +1.36).
Selling against shares of financials has eased a bit, but the sector is still down a considerable 0.8%. That makes it the worst performing sector at the moment. DJ30 -27.96 NASDAQ +1.57 SP500 -2.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1302/642 mln/1202 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1259/330 mln/1613
10:30 am : The US Dollar Index has continued to trend lower, but remains in positive terriory. However, the downtrend has continued to provide price support to most commodities.
June crude oil hit session highs of $72.25 per barrel, around an hour before pit trading began. However, crude fell back into negative territroy following that and is now trading at $70.78, 1.2% lower. June natural gas remained on an uptrend from around 2am ET until 10am ET, setting today's session high currently at $4.41 per MMBtu. Natural gas has since lost more than half of its gains and barely remains trading in positive territory at $4.34 per MMBtu.
Precious metals moved back into positive territory recently. June gold is currently trading 0.6% higher at $1235.50 per ounce, while July silver is 0.5% higher at $19.32 per ounce. DJ30 -6.5 NASDAQ +8.17 SP500 +0.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1427/485.52 mln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1479/245.83/1330
10:00 am : The financial sector has fallen under a sudden bout of selling pressure; it is now down 1.0%, which makes it the worst performer of the major sectors in the S&P 500.
Diversified banks and diversified financial services plays are among those that appear to be most targeted by the flurry of selling. The two groups are down 2.2% and 1.8%, respectively. Banking and financial services giant Bank of America (BAC 16.16, -0.18) reported this morning that in April its credit card default amount net of recoveries hit 12.71%, which is up from the 12.54% that was registered in the prior month. However, Bank of America reported that total delinquencies for April were 6.73%, down from 7.07% in March. DJ30 -27.81 NASDAQ -2.43 SP500 -2.72 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1232/289 mln/1125 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/149 mln/1399
09:45 am : Stocks put together a rather solid start despite relatively lackluster action ahead of the opening bell, but pressure has picked up to push the major indices backward.
Still, seven of the 10 major sectors are in higher ground. Basic materials plays are up the most -- they currently sport a 0.6% gain. Strength among materials stocks is rather broad, but metals plays are under a bit of pressure, such that diversified metals and miners are down a collective 1.5%.
Energy stocks are the weakest. The sector has shed 0.3% as oil prices are pushed to a 0.8% loss at $71.00 per barrel, a new three-month intraday low. DJ30 -6.43 NASDAQ +4.29 SP500 +0.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1473/196 mln/883 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1619/98 mln/1058
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00. Stock futures overcame some overnight weakness to push moderately above fair value earlier this morning, but they have since weakened as they try to find direction in the few minutes ahead of the bell. The dollar remains strong, though. It made its way to a fresh 52-week high earlier this morning. Consequently that came as the euro retreated to a four-year low against the greenback. The euro has since recovered from that downturn, but the British pound remains weak. Economic data hasn't had much of an impact on premarket trade, nor has corporate news.
09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat. Total Net TIC flows for March hit $140.5 billion, which is far more than the $40.0 billion that had been widely expected and up from the $47.1 billion that had been recorded in the prior month. The data has done little to lift stock futures. Meanwhile, action in Europe has cooled a bit since earlier this morning. Britain's FTSE is now up 0.7%. Banks are leaders at the moment. BP (BP) has found support after it indicated that some progress has been made to contain the Gulf oil spill. Germany's DAX is up 0.8%. Financial issues are also strong there. France's CAC is currently up just 0.1%, but bank stocks have provided a boon against waning interest in the broader market. The euro has retraced some of its losses from earlier trade. At its low, the currency touched 1.2235 per dollar, which marked a four-year low. It is now down 0.1% to 1.2344 per dollar. Asia's major market averages fell sharply. The slide was led by the Shanghai Composite, which dropped 5.1% as property stocks were pressured amid escalating concerns over the government's restrictive measures to stem asset prices and contain inflation. Hong Kong's Hang Seng sank 2.1%. Hong Kong Electric and CLP Holdings were the only names in the 43-member index to stage gains. In Japan, the Nikkei fell 2.2%. Fast Retailing was a downside leader.
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.30. Stock futures have taken a negative turn in recent action. News that the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to 19.1 in May from 31.9 in April to record its worst reading since January hasn't helped the tone. However, the dollar continues to advance against competing currencies -- it now sports a 0.5% gain as it reclaims the gains that it registered over night.
08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. Stock futures currently point to a moderately higher start amid solid gains in Europe and sharp losses in Asia. Meanwhile, the dollar continues to climb, such that it now stands at a fresh 52-week high against a basket of major foreign currencies.
In corporate news, Lowe's (LOW) was a standout in a small set of earnings announcements. The home improvement retailer brought in better-than-expected earnings for its most recent quarter. Its guidance was a bit uninspiring, though. Astellas Pharma is to acquire OSI Pharmaceuticals (OSIP) for $57.50 per share in cash. Though that is an increase from its previous offer of $52 per share, it is below OSIP's closing price of $59.80 last week. GLG Partners (GLG) has agreed to be acquired by Man Group Plc for $4.50 per share. Shares of GLG closed last week's trade at $2.91 per share.
The economic calendar is light with the Empire State Manufacturing Survey at 8:30 AM ET, then Net Long-term Treasury International Capital (TIC) flow data for March at 9:00 AM ET.
06:27 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80.
06:27 am : Nikkei...10235.76...-226.80...-2.20%. Hang Seng...19715.20...-430.20...-2.10%.
06:27 am : FTSE...5306.71...+43.80...+0.80%. DAX...6108.61...+51.80...+0.90%.
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