TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=66&t=335



FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their efforts in trade signals while ignoring the impact on their trading results via market psychology, trader psychology (trading habits/routine and personal lifestyle). If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.

My Trading Performance: +0.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points (no trades today)

------------------------------

Dow Finishes Higher - But No 10,000 Yet
Major indexes rose to the highest point in nearly a year on earnings optimism, but the market rally peters out late in the day.
By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer
Last Updated: October 12, 2009: 6:01 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow inched closer to the 10,000 level Monday, carving out a fresh one-year high despite a choppy day on Wall Street as strength in banks and commodities vied with weakness in technology.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 20 points, or 0.2%, after rising as high as 9931.82 in the morning.

The S&P 500 (SPX) index gained nearly 5 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) was barely changed.

Stocks had posted bigger gains through the early afternoon but lost steam as the session wore on. Cisco (CSCO, Fortune 500), Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) and Dell (DELL, Fortune 500) were among the big tech decliners, while heavy-weight Dow stocks such as Boeing (BA, Fortune 500) and United Technologies (UTX, Fortune 500) also retreated.

The Dow is moving closer to 10,000, a key psychological level that could trigger a more aggressive wave of buying -- or a big selloff.

The Dow last crossed 10,000 on Oct. 7, 2008, when it briefly touched 10,124.03. The Dow last closed above 10,000 on Oct. 3, 2008, when it ended at 10,325.38.

Analysts say it could hit that point later this week, depending on how the third-quarter reporting period goes. In particular, investors are looking for another roundd of better-than-expected earnings and even some stabilization in revenue.

"We're likely to see continued improvement on the heels of the increases we saw in the second quarter," said Dan Genter, president and CEO at RNC Genter Capital Management.

He said that the results may not show topline growth yet, but they are likely to show that it is more than just cost cutting driving the broad profits recovery.

"Assuming the earnings story doesn't blow up, stocks should keep moving higher," he said.

Stocks have already seen a massive surge this year, with the S&P 500 spiking 58% through Friday's close after bottoming out at a 12-year low in March.

Despite repeated calls for a big 10% to 15% selloff, the market hasn't given up more than 5% without buyers rushing back in. Genter said the market is likely to continue to avoid a big selloff, as many people remain under invested, with plenty of cash on the sidelines and no better place to put in than in stocks.

Results: This week brings results from a number of market-moving companies, including Dow components Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), IBM (IBM, Fortune 500), Intel (INTC, Fortune 500), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ, Fortune 500) and General Electric (GE, Fortune 500).

Google (GOOG, Fortune 500), Nokia (NOK), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500) and Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) are among the other big names due to report.

Dow component Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) started things off on a positive note last week, reporting earnings and revenue that were better than expected.

The aluminum maker's strong revenue results were especially notable, with investors focused on possible revenue growth after a quarter of little to none.

In the second quarter, there was little topline growth, and any improvement in earnings was driven mostly by cost cutting.

That trend could continue in the third quarter, but if Alcoa is an indication, some sectors and companies may see improvement. Year-over-year profits are expected to have fallen more than 20% from the third quarter of 2008.

World markets: Global markets were mixed. In Europe, London's FTSE 100 gained 0.9%, while France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX both gained 1.4%. Asian markets ended lower, with the Hong Kong Hang Seng down 0.9%. The Japanese Nikkei was closed for a holiday.

Currency and commodities: The dollar fell versus the euro and gained against the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for November delivery rose $1.50 to settle at $73.27 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for December delivery rose $8.90 to settle at $1,057.50 an ounce, the fourth straight record high for the precious metal.

The bond market was closed for the Columbus Day holiday.

Market breadth was mixed. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers eight to seven on volume of 946 million shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners seven to six on volume of 1.79 billion shares.



Yahoo! Finance

4:25 pm : A breakdown in technical support caused stocks to rollover midsession, but the S&P 500 successfully fended off sellers to log its sixth straight gain, which is the best streak this year for the stock market.

Strong gains by European markets and renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar helped stocks start the session on strong footing and the S&P 500 climb above its 2009 closing high, which had represented significant resistance late last week.

Early gains were broad-based, but energy stocks were easily the best performers for the entire session. The sector settled with a 1.2% gain as oil and gas drillers (+2.5%) and oil and gas equipment stocks (+1.9%) responded to a 1.9% gain in crude oil prices, which closed pit trade at $73.15 per barrel.

Financial stocks lagged for most of the session and even dipped into negative territory in the early going. However, the sector was able to regroup and finish at a session high with a 0.9% gain, second only to the energy sector.

Within the financial sector, diversified banks (+2.8%) showed particular strength. Their gains came amid comments from widely followed analyst Dick Bove during a CNBC interview that Wells Fargo (WFC 30.28, +1.07) will most likely provide a positive surprise for the latest earnings reporting season. Bove also said that Morgan Stanley (MS 31.76, -0.33) and Goldman Sachs (GS 190.15, +0.85) should do pretty well, but 60% of regional banks will probably post losses this quarter and next quarter.

Despite strength in the broader market, the S&P 500 could not push through its 2009 intraday high, which stands near the 1080 level. Stocks traded sideways just below that technical hurdle, but a sudden fit of selling pressure soon snowballed and dropped the S&P 500 way back to neutral line, where it garnered support and reclaimed gains into the close.

Meanwhile, the Dow finished with a modest gain, but the Nasdaq settled with a fractional loss.

Trading volume was paltry this session. Not even 950 million shares exchanged hands on the NYSE this session. That's the lowest level two months.

Treasury markets reopen Tuesday. They were closed this session for Columbus Day.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.2%), Financials (+0.9%), Utilities (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.4%), Tech (+0.3%), Materials (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (-0.1%), Industrials (-0.1%)DJ30 +20.86 NASDAQ -0.14 NQ100 +0.1% R2K -0.2% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +4.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/1.79 bln/1438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1640/946 mln/1352

3:30 pm : The market has rebounded from session lows, which were just above Friday's closing level. Still, the market is trading below the tight range from earlier in the session.

Energy commodities saw healthy gains during today's pit session, helped by weakness in the dollar. In turn, the energy sector is the clear leader in the stock market this session. Energy stocks are currently up 1.2%.

Crude oil and natural gas futures traded comfortably in positive territory for the entire session. November crude oil futures closed up 1.9% at $73.15 per barrel. November natural gas futures closed up 2.1% at $4.87 per contract. Cabot Oil & Gas (COG 37.75 +0.97) is reflecting energy's strength this session. Shares of the oil and gas company are currently up 2.6%.

Precious metals saw modest gains this session as the dollar continued its weak trend. After hitting a session high at $1060.50 per ounce, December gold futures closed up 0.9% at $1057.80 per ounce. Gold futures are now up almost 7% over the last nine pit sessions. December silver futures closed at $17.81 per ounce, up 0.7%. Silver futures are now up over 70% since year-to-date lows were struck on January 15.DJ30 +78.07 NASDAQ +15.35 SP500 +6.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1784/1.94 bln/825 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1829/990 mln/1188

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently slipped all the way back to the neutral line, but was able to secure support there. Still, the downturn has stocks well off of their highs and holding on to fractional gains.

The major sectors in the S&P 500 are now evenly split between gainers and decliners. The 10 sectors had all been sporting gains ahead of the recent selling effort.DJ30 -12.70 NASDAQ -8.56 SP500 +0.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1151/1.38 bln/1475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1529/629 mln/1422

2:30 pm : Stocks had spent the last couple of hours trading sideways, but a sudden rush of selling pressure caused stocks to roll over. The turn has left the Nasdaq Composite in negative territory and the Dow at the unchanged mark. The S&P 500 has managed to hold on to a modest gain, though.

There wasn't any immediate news item or announcement to account for the downturn. However, the selling effort snowballed after the S&P 500 broke below this session's range. Support for the S&P 500 stands at 1071, which is the 2009 closing high that was eclipsed earlier this session.DJ30 -1.74 NASDAQ -5.17 SP500 +2.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/1.24 bln/1389 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1560/571 mln/1384

2:05 pm : Stocks continue to trade in a narrow range, unable to break above technical resistance at 1080, but unwilling to retreat any further. Stocks have been stuck in their range for more than two hours.

Ford (F 7.68, +0.56) is up sharply and providing primary support to the broader market. The automaker has exhibited strength for the entire session, following news this morning that the company's European division reported September sales increased 12.3%. DJ30 +37.56 NASDAQ +6.13 SP500 +6.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1443/1.10 bln/1147 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1844/513 mln/1090

1:30 pm : The stock market has entered into a narrow trading range that is just a couple of points below the 1080 level, which marks the S&P 500's intraday high. As such, gains remain steady and solid.

Telecom has actually joined the other major sectors in positive territory. Though still a relative laggard, the sector is now up 0.1%.

Energy remains the best performing sector. It is up 1.6% and is the only sector to sport a gain in excess of 1%.DJ30 +37.96 NASDAQ +7.13 SP500 +6.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1461/1.00 bln/1100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1825/464 mln/1086

1:00 pm : Another drop by the U.S. dollar has helped stocks move closer to their sixth straight gain, but the advance has been capped by technical resistance.

With the Dollar Index down 0.4% to trade fractionally above its 52-week low, participants have pushed stocks higher in broad-based fashion. The dollar's decline has been particularly helpful to energy stocks, though. Since a weaker greenback has helped oil prices march 2.3% higher to $73.40 per barrel, energy stocks have managed to ascend to a 1.6% gain, better than any other sector.

Leadership from the energy sector has been somewhat limited, however. Though its strength helped the S&P 500 push through its 2009 closing high, which had represented a significant resistance zone late last week, the broad market measure has failed to push through its 2009 intraday high near the 1080 level.

The financial sector, which has often been a leader for the broader market, has traded as a laggard this session. Though the sector is up a solid 0.5%, it has steadily lagged this session. The performance comes after widely followed analyst Dick Bove stated during a CNBC interview that 60% of regional banks will probably post losses this quarter and next quarter, but that Morgan Stanley (MS 31.75, -0.34) and Goldman Sachs (GS 190.18, +0.88) should do pretty well, while Wells Fargo (WFC 29.85, +0.64) will most likely provide a positive surprise. Amid those comments, regional bank stocks are up 0.9% and investment banks and brokerages are down 0.2%.

Meanwhile, payment processing companies Visa (V 73.67, +0.73) and MasterCard (MA 216.61, +2.19) have both seen interest in their shares dwindle since the opening, despite an upgrade from analysts at Credit Suisse.

Telecom stocks are lagging once again. The sector is currently flat, but is down more than 4% in four sessions, while the broader market is up more than 2% during the same course of time.

Treasury markets are closed for Columbus Day.DJ30 +46.25 NASDAQ +8.16 SP500 +7.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1453/921 mln/1095 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1859/428 mln/1049

12:30 pm : The U.S. dollar continues to trade with weakness, which has taken the Dollar Index to a 0.4% loss. The dollar's doldrums continue to provide support for stocks, but the broad equity averages haven't been able to make their way back to their session highs, which were reached midmorning.

Weakness in the dollar has also helped commodity prices this session. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up 1.1% this session. DJ30 +42.02 NASDAQ +7.33 SP500 +6.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1466/842 mln/1062 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1819/393 mln/1066

12:00 pm : The major indices continue to drift off of their session highs after the S&P 500 failed to push above its 2009 intraday highs, which stand near 1080.

Energy stocks continue to make up the best performing major sector. As a group, energy stocks are up 1.5%, just a bit off of their session high. Oil prices are also a bit off of their session high, however. Crude futures are currently up 2.0% at $73.25 per barrel after trading just shy of $73.85 per barrel.

As a reminder, Treasury markets are closed for Columbus Day.DJ30 +40.20 NASDAQ +9.87 SP500 +6.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1451/744 mln/1050 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1805/350 mln/1073

11:30 am : The stock market has dipped a bit after moving sideways near resistance levels associated with the S&P 500's 2009 intraday high near the 1080 level.

The financial sector has been a noticeable laggard this session. Though the sector is currently up 0.4%, it is still trailing the broader market. Further, in terms of relative percent gained, it is in the bottom half of the S&P 500's 10 major sectors.DJ30 +46.17 NASDAQ +11.51 SP500 +6.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/652 mln/988 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1794/311 mln/1041

11:00 am : The S&P 500 is flirting with its 2009 high, which stands just above 1080, but the Dow Jones has registered a fresh high for the year and is now just 70 points or so away from 10,000. The Nasdaq still has a bit of ground to make up before it challenges its 2009 high, which is pegged at 2168.DJ30 +66.28 NASDAQ +14.23 SP500 +7.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1518/518 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1851/246 mln/945

10:30 am : After trading around the $72.00-72.50 range overnight, October crude pushed higher early this morning to session highs of $73.84 per barrel. Crude is currently just off those highs, up 2.3% at $73.42 per barrel.

Natural gas is tracking crude this morning and is just off its own morning highs of $4.936 per MMBtu, up 3.1% at $4.918 per MMBtu.

Recent weakness in the US Dollar Index pushed December gold to fresh highs of $1060.30 per ounce in recent activity and December silver back near early morning highs of $17.99 per ounce. Gold is currently trading 0.8% higher at $1057.20 per ounce, while silver is up 0.9% at $17.855 per ounce as the Dollar Index remains just above session lows.DJ30 +53.05 NASDAQ +12.65 SP500 +6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1466 /404.2 mln/919 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1843/187.9 mln/907

10:00 am : The broader stock market has recently added to its opening gain so that the S&P 500 now trades above its 2009 closing high, which represented a significant resistance zone late last week.

Energy stocks continue to show the most strength. The sector is now up 1.8%. However, telecom stocks are lagging once again. Telecom has been out of favor for several straight sessions and is currently the only sector to trade with a loss -- it is down fractionally.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+1.8%), Materials (+1.3%), Industrials (+0.8%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.8%), Tech (+0.7%), Consumer Staples (+0.6%), Financials (+0.5%), Health Care (+0.4%), Utilities (+0.4%)
Declining Sectors: Telecom (down fractionally)

Early Movers: Trading up -- RPTPD +25.1%, LEE +13.8%, ADG +11.3%, NCS +11.2%, BDK +9%, NLS +8.9%, GMXR +8.3%, IVAN +8.2%, CLWT +7.9%, BBW +7.6%, PHG +7.1%, BX +6.9%; Trading down -- DRIV -38.6%, DEPO -35.5%, INPH -24.7%, KBH -7.7%, THLD -6.9%, CAGC -6.6%, BPHX -6.1%DJ30 +52.83 NASDAQ +14.13 SP500 +3.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/230 mln/791 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1927/109 mln/744

09:45 am : The stock market is putting together a strong start, currently led by the energy sector, which is sporting the best gain of any major sector as it jumps out to a 1.4% gain. Energy's advance comes amid strength among oil and gas equipment stocks (+2.1%) and oil and gas drilling stocks (+2.8%) as oil prices climb 2.4% to $73.50 per barrel.DJ30 +45.49 NASDAQ +12.53 SP500 +3.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/144 mln/697 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1915/78 mln/696

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Stock futures are off of their morning highs, but they continue to suggest a solid start for the major equity averages. A positive start would extend the stock market's recent string of gains, which currently stands at five. The continued buying interest comes amid renewed weakness in the U.S. dollar, which has been a primary driver of action in the stock market during recent weeks. The dollar Index is currently off by 0.2% so that it is only fractionally above its 52-week low. The dollar's drop has been particularly helpful to oil and gold prices, which are up 2.6% to $73.65 per barrel and up 0.5% to $1053.00 per ounce, respectively. Impressive gains by Europe's major markets are also helping keep a bullish bias intact among U.S. participants. Following a better-than-expected quarterly report from Europe's major electronics maker Phillips, the three major European bourses are up 1% or more.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Stock futures still suggest a strong opening for the major equity averages. Such a start would put the S&P 500 on track for its sixth straight gain, which has not yet happened this year. There have been a few notable upgrades to aid in keeping this morning's positive bias intact. Specifically, analysts at Credit Suisse upgraded their ratings on MasterCard (MA) and Visa (V), while analysts at UBS upgraded shares of Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and Amgen (AMGN). Wells Fargo analysts upgraded shares of Infosys (INFY).

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.80. The major markets in Europe continue to sport solid gains following a better-than-expected quarterly report from Phillips Electronics. As such, Germany's DAX is up 1.5%. Deutsche Post and Adidas trading are currently the only two companies in the 30-member bourse that are in the red. Gains are also broad-based in France's CAC, which is up 1.3%. Leadership is focused to shares of Total (TOT), though. Energy giants BP PLC (BP) and Royal Dutch Shell (RDS.A) are providing leadership to Britain's FTSE, which is up 1.2%. Barclays (BCS) is lagging amid news from Financial Times that the bank is planning to spin off a portfolio of complex credit assets as it tidies its balance sheet. Meanwhile, The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.K. government hopes to cut GBP16 billion from its massive debt pile by selling off a portfolio of state-owned assets. In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slipped 0.2%. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.9%. New World China Land tumbled after it proposed a rights issue. Coal stocks were also trimmed. Sinopec (SNP) closed down after a chunk of its capital was converted to free float following a lock-up period. In Shanghai, the Shanghai Composite slipped 0.6%. Japan's Nikkei was closed.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +7.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.80. Impressive gains among Europe's major indices and a weaker dollar have given U.S. stock futures support this morning. Renewed weakness in the greenback has also helped prop up commodity prices. As such, oil futures are being priced 2.2% higher at $73.35 per barrel, while gold prices are up 0.7% to $1055.60 per ounce. Without any items on the economic calendar and no major earnings announcements to speak of, this will likely be a slow-news session.

06:40 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.30.

06:35 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...21299.35...-200.10...-0.90%.

06:35 am : FTSE...5215.86...+54.00...+1.10%. DAX...5791.02...+78.80...+1.40%.

Go Back To TheStrategyLab.com Homepage