Post subject: September 4th Friday 2009 Emini ES ($ES_F) points +11.00
Posted: Fri Sep 04, 2009 5:33 pm
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm Posts: 4341 Location: Canada
Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name wrbtrader. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=61&t=294
Not much to say other than that I got with trading today and then took two breaks away from the computer because of such. Unfortunately, the price action decided to make it's best moves of the trading day while I was gone.
Other than that, careful trading today.
Have a nice and safe weekend all.
FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand along with being able to exploit the changes in supply/demand.
Also, I strongly believe that profitable trading involves more than just trade signals and that's why most traders fail because they put all their interest in trade signals while ignoring the impact of their trading habits/routine or personal lifestyle. If you don't understand this perspective...please ask questions here at the forum for more info or you can tweet me on twitter @wrbtrader.
My Trading Performance: +11.00 Emini ES ($ES_F) points
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Stocks In Pre-Holiday Rally Wall Street advances after the August labor market report shows a slower pace of job cuts and a rising unemployment rate. By Alexandra Twin, CNNMoney.com senior writer Last Updated: September 4, 2009: 4:12 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Friday in a thinly traded session ahead of the Labor Day weekend, as investors focused on the positives in a mixed report on the labor market.
The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 96 points, or 1%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index added 13 points, or 1.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) advanced 35 points, or 1.8%.
However, all three indexes ended the week lower.
Employers cut less jobs in August than they have in months, but the unemployment rate still rose to a fresh 26-year high.
"It's a good report that generally suggests more healing in the economy," said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist, LPL Financial. "But the market has been saturated with good news and is starting to show fatigue after the S&P 500 rallied 50%."
A roughly six-month rally propelled the S&P 500 more than 50% through last week, leaving the broad index at its highest point since just after the collapse of Lehman Brothers last September.
But stocks tumbled in the first three sessions of this week as investors worried about the health of the economy. There was a late-session advance Thursday as some of the bank and tech shares that slumped earlier in the week bounced back.
That carried over to Friday's session.
Trading volume was light ahead of the three-day Labor Day weekend. On the New York Stock Exchange, advancers beat decliners four to one on volume of 1.02 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, winners topped losers almost three to one on volume of 1.71 billion shares.
Economy: Employers cut 216,000 jobs from their payrolls in August, the Labor Department reported, after paring a revised 276,000 jobs in July. The month brought the smallest number of job cuts since August 2008. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com expected 230,000 job cuts
The unemployment rate, generated by a separate survey, rose to 9.7% from 9.4%, a 26-year high. Economists expected unemployment to rise to 9.5%.
Unemployment is expected to hit 10% by the end of the year or early 2010, even as the economy is starting to recover. Although a jobs recovery typically lags a broader recovery, the rise in unemployment remains the market's biggest economic worry right now.
Without a healthier labor market and a burst in consumer spending, inventory rebuilding and fiscal and monetary stimulus are the main factors fueling a recovery.
"In the last few weeks, we've gone from pricing in a recovery to worrying about a double-dip recession in 2010 when all the stimulus money gives out," said Kleintop.
Stock movers: Select financial shares rose, including Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), US Bancorp (USB, Fortune 500) and Regions Financial (RF, Fortune 500). The KBW Bank (BKX) index added 0.9%.
A number of truckers, airlines and railroad shares rose, now that oil prices have come down off 10-month highs set last week. Fuel prices are directly linked to the profitability of transportation companies. The Dow Jones Transportation (DJT) average gained 1.7%.
Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares rose ahead of its media event next week where it is expected to introduce iPod Nano and Touch models that include digital cameras. Investors are also wondering if CEO Steve Jobs, now back at work after a six-month medical leave, will make an appearance. Apple shares have nearly doubled this year.
Other big tech gainers included Microsoft, IBM, Cisco Systems,
Oil and gold: U.S. light crude oil for October delivery rose 6 cents to settle at $68.02 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Oil prices have been slipping since hitting a 10-month high just below $75 a barrel late last month.
COMEX gold for December delivery fell $1 to settle at $996.70 an ounce, after inching closer to the psychologically significant $1,000 level over the last few sessions.
World markets: Global markets continued to recover, with major European markets up at least 1% in the afternoon. Most Asian markets ended higher, with the exception of Japan's Nikkei.
Bonds and currency: Treasury prices slipped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.44% from 3.34% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
In currency trading, the dollar fell versus the euro and the Japanese yen.
4:10 pm : Buyers continued to push stocks higher in the face of some rather ugly unemployment headlines as strong momentum from the previous session and pent up buying fed a positive bias.
The latest jobs report showed that 216,000 nonfarm payrolls were slashed in August. That marked the lowest job loss tally in one year and wasn't as bad as the 230,000 job losses that economists had come to expect, but the difficulty of finding a job sent the unemployment rate to a 25-year high of 9.7% from 9.4%. The consensus estimate had been pegged at 9.5%.
Though stocks struggled a bit to set forth on a clear trajectory in the minutes following the report, they benefited from some residual buying interest stemming from the previous session's late squeeze higher. Given that stocks had lost roughly 2.5% in the four sessions leading up to Friday's trade, participants also felt compelled to chase the gains registered in recent weeks.
This session's buying effort came on light trading volume, but that was generally expected going into Memorial Day weekend. Still, a lack of participation is often associated with a lack of conviction among broader-market participants, even though low-volume trade has been a hallmark of the stock market's summer rally. Hardly 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE this session, below the 50-day moving average of 1.2 billion shares.
Nonetheless, this session's gains were broad-based as roughly 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 settled with a gain. Seven of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 posted gains between 1.3% and 2.0%. Financials (+0.8%), consumer staples (+0.7%), and utilities (+0.3%) were relative laggards.
Stocks did stall as the S&P 500 ran into some near-term resistance. They then spent the afternoon drifting sideways before making a final upward push to close at the top end of the 1014 to 1016 zone.
Steady strength among stocks put Treasuries under pressure. That left the benchmark 10-year Note to drop 25 ticks, which put its yield back above 3.4%.
Gold prices also lost favor among investors, even though the U.S. dollar declined 0.3% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Gold prices settled this session fractionally lower at $996.70 per ounce after making their way to six-month highs and flirting with the $1,000 mark in the previous session. DJ30 +96.66 NASDAQ +35.58 NQ100 +2.0% R2K +1.4% SP400 +1.3% SP500 +13.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1982/1.72 bln/677 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2436/1.02 bln/582
3:30 pm : Stocks continue to trade with modest gains on light volume.
Natural gas futures rallied throughout the session. Gains came on a short covering following yesterday's dramatic losses, ahead of the holiday weekend. The October futures closed 8.3% higher at $2.73 per contract. Despite the impressive gain, The October contract was still down over 10% for the week.
Crude oil futures had a quiet session. After hitting a session low of $67.12 per barrel soon after the open of the pit trade, the October futures recovered and closed up a penny at $67.97 per barrel.
Precious metals retreated following two consecutive very strong sessions. Weakness in the dollar allowed them to recover from session lows, however. December gold futures closed down fractionally at $996.70 per ounce after flirting with the $1000 level in the prior session. December silver futures closed down fractionally at $16.29 per ounce.DJ30 +82.52 NASDAQ +31.01 SP500 +11.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1795/1.39 bln/841 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2223/705 mln/767
3:00 pm : The stock market has climbed a couple of points back toward its recent highs, but it continues to encounter resistance in the zone of 1014 to 1016. In turn, stocks remain confined to a relatively narrow trading range, which has often been the case in afternoon trading during recent sessions.DJ30 +91.21 NASDAQ +31.36 SP500 +12.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1723/1.28 bln/896 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2221/648 mln/753
2:30 pm : Stocks are moving sideways after easing off of session highs. This session's bullish bias remains intact, though, with more than 80% of the S&P 500 components sporting gains.
Treasuries continued to be mired in weakness, especially at the long end of the yield curve. The benchmark 10-year Note is down a considerable 24 ticks, which has pushed its yield several basis points above 3.4%. Meanwhile, the 30-year Bond is down nearly 2 points, which has lifted its yield up to nearly 4.27%.DJ30 +77.16 NASDAQ +29.12 SP500 +10.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1742/1.19 bln/867 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2234/596 mln/744
2:00 pm : Stocks are drifting off of their session highs, which were reached as the S&P 500 moved into a near-term resistance zone between 1014 and 1016. Gains in the broader market remain strong, though.
Trading volume remains light, suggesting a lack of participation ahead of the long weekend. Consequently, low-volume trade is often associated with a lack of conviction among broader-market participants.
Trading volume has been exceptionally low in recent weeks. During the last 50 sessions, trading volume on the NYSE has averaged 1.2 billion shares. The 50-day moving average prior to the end of June stood at roughly 1.5 billion shares. DJ30 +79.05 NASDAQ +28.86 SP500 +10.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1749/1.10 bln/845 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2218/560 mln/747
1:30 pm : The stock market's recent advance stalled just before the S&P 500 came in close range of a near-term resistance zone at 1014 to 1016. However, the S&P 500 has since pushed a few points higher to trade near the upper end of that resistance zone.
Industrial stocks are faring the best this afternoon. The sector is up 2.0%, more than any other in the S&P 500.
Utilities stocks continue to underperform on a relative basis. The sector is up just 0.4%.DJ30 +99.07 NASDAQ +33.04 SP500 +12.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1803/1.01 bln/776 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2314/517 mln/646
1:00 pm : A late squeeze in the previous session provided stocks with enough momentum to trend higher this morning, but the latest monthly payrolls report put a wrinkle into things. Buyers have since stepped in with some more conviction and taken stocks another leg higher, though.
Stocks started the session in higher ground, but struggled to establish a clear direction in the early going as the August jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls fell 216,000, which isn't as bad as the 230,000 job losses that were widely expected. The latest tally marked the fewest monthly layoffs in one year.
Though companies may be slowing their layoffs, they certainly aren't expanding their payrolls. That was made evident with the jump in the unemployment rate, which now stands at a 25-year high of 9.7%, up from 9.4% and above the 9.5% that was widely expected.
Despite the ugly headline unemployment rate and its implications for workers' psyches and consumer spending, which represents the lion's share of economic activity, investors have shown a willingness to continue paying higher prices for stocks. As such, the major indices have shaken the early erratic trade to push higher. They have run into a bit of near-term resistance, however.
Still, gains are broad-based with all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 trading higher. Large-cap tech is showing some of the best gains, which has helped the Nasdaq Composite outperform its counterparts.
Amid the broad-based buying effort, Treasuries have come under pressure. The benchmark 10-year Note is down 20 ticks, which has its yield back above 3.4%.
Gold prices had showed weakness early on by pulling back from their six-month highs, but they have since rebounded to trade near the neutral line at $996.00 per ounce.
As a reminder, U.S. markets will be closed on Monday for holiday observance.DJ30 +79.42 NASDAQ +29.04 SP500 +10.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1663/910 mln/887 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2161/474 mln/757
12:30 pm : According to Dow Jones, Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair said in a French central bank publication that international banking regulators should raise required capital across-the-board for the financial industry.
That statement comes as some investors begin to argue that higher capital levels at financial institutions are diminishing shareholder returns, whether through share repurchases, dividend increases, or foregone profits. For example, amid the turmoil that rocked the financial system during the past year and the decision to reorganize itself as a bank holding company, Goldman Sachs (GS 163.40, +1.74) began ratcheting up its cash cushion. As of the second quarter, Goldman held more than $22 billion in cash and short-term investments. That's up sharply from the near $14 billion the company held the year before. Though that cash makes for better capital reserves, it is yielding little.DJ30 +82.30 NASDAQ +26.68 SP500 +9.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1627/823 mln/908 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2067/436 mln/824
12:00 pm : The major indices have made their way to fresh session highs, but strength among large-cap tech continues to make the gains most impressive in the Nasdaq Composite and the Nasdaq 100 (+1.3%).
Meanwhile, shares of airlines are garnering solid support. That has the Amex Airline Index up 1.1%, which means it is now up more than 5% since Tuesday's close. However, weakness during Monday and Tuesday has the index facing a week-to-date loss of roughly 2.5%.
Nonetheless, this session's strength comes at the hands of Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY 27.35, +0.76) and Alaska Air Group (ALK 24.24, +0.62). Meanwhile, airline giants AMR Corp (AMR 5.49, +0.00) and UAL Corp (UAUA 6.19, +0.01) are lagging after reporting their latest metrics. AMR said that it that its August capacity fell some 9% from the year before, while UAL said that its capacity fell 6%.DJ30 +39.37 NASDAQ +18.43 SP500 +6.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1437/692 mln/1070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1807/375 mln/1054
11:30 am : Stocks have surrendered some of their gains after making a solid rebound. The major indices remain in positive territory, though.
Despite a pullback by the broader market, large-cap tech stocks continue to sport some impressive gains. That has the Nasdaq 100 up 0.7%.
Apple (AAPL 169.09, +2.54) is a primary leader among large-cap tech outfits. The company's stock has benefited, in part, by an increased target price from analysts at Societe Generale.DJ30 +9.97 NASDAQ +6.60 SP500 +2.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/586 mln/1270 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1495/326 mln/1316
11:00 am : Stocks have rebounded after making an early morning reversal. The move has been broad-based, taking nine of the 10 major S&P 500 sectors into higher ground -- only utilities (-0.2%) remain in the red.
Weakness in the utilities sector is largely being driven by multiutilities companies (-0.6%), like generation giant Exelon (EXC 48.46, -0.26). Dynegy (DYN 1.91, +0.08) is providing support to the utilities sector, though. The electric utility had actually been a primary source of weakness for the sector earlier this week.DJ30 +26.82 NASDAQ +1182 SP500 +4.48 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1281/471 mln/1138 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1596/275 mln/1174
10:30 am : After trading higher overnight, October crude oil fell over $1.50 per barrel this morning, pushing the energy component into negative territory and to morning lows of $67.12 per barrel. Currently, crude is 0.3% lower at $67.72 per barrel.
October natural gas traded near the unchanged line overnight before falling modestly to morning lows of $2.409 per MMBtu an hour before pit trading began. Natural gas has since pushed off lows into positive territory and to fresh highs of $2.618 per MMBtu following yesterday's sell-off. Natural gas is currently 3.5% higher at $2.596 per MMBtu.
The US Dollar Index spiked just after the open of U.S. equity markets, adding selling pressure to the commodity complex. The index has pulled back somewhat, but remains in positive territory.
December gold and December silver opened in negative territory and remain there is current trading activity. Gold is 0.8% lower at $990.10 per ounce, while silver is 1.5% lower at $16.045 per ounce.DJ30 +24.71 NASDAQ +7.83 SP500 +3.2 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1214/339.1 mln/1133 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1489/207.3 mln/1192
10:00 am : Sellers have stepped in to reverse the stock market's initial gains. That has all three major indices trading near the neutral line.
The reversal hasn't come at the hand of any particular news item or amid sudden weakness in any particular sector. Rather, the downward move has been broad so that only health care (+0.3%), financials (+0.1%), and energy (+0.1%) remain in positive ground.
09:45 am : Stocks had been swinging without a clear direction in premarket action, but they have managed to make their way to modest gains in the early going. The early advance has been broad-based without any individual company or sector acting as a clear-cut leader.
Materials stocks are lagging, however. The sector had made strong gains in the past two sessions as precious metals prices pushed higher. Materials stocks are currently contending with a 0.5% loss as the price of gold pulls back from a six-month high to trade at $989.40 per ounce.DJ30 +17.98 NASDAQ +8.98 SP500 +2.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1319/136 mln/769 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1372/105 mln/1130
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.30. Stock futures are struggling to establish a clear direction in the wake of the August nonfarm payrolls report, which saw the unemployment rate climb more than expected to a 25-year high of 9.7%. The heightened unemployment rate comes even though monthly nonfarm payrolls fell more than expected to their lowest level in one year, proving that companies may be slowing their layoffs, but they certainly aren't expanding their payrolls. Such a scenario doesn't bode well for consumer spending, which is a primary component of GDP.
09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.50. European stocks have bounced to their best levels of the session following the U.S. jobs report, though there was a brief skirmish of selling. Germany's DAX is currently up 1.5% amid broad-based buying. Daimler (DAI) is currently a primary leader, but Volkswagen is a primary laggard. Volkswagen's losses are relatively limited, though. As for Britain, its FTSE is up 1.3%. Global banking outfit HSBC (HBC) is a primary leader in British action, but natural resource players are excending recent gains, which has benefited Rio Tinto (RTP) and BHP Billiton (BHP). France's CAC is currently sporting a 1.1% gain as energy giant Total (TOT) provides leadership. In economic news, G-20 finance ministers will begin meeting today. Reports suggest their discussions will focus on stimulus exit strategies. ECB President Trichet stated specifically that the ECB may raise interest rates before fully withdrawing extra liquidity. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 2.8% higher amid news that officials followed up on their pledge to promote a healthy equity market. That was done by increasing the amount that institutions can invest in the country's stock markets and followed a 23% slide in Shanghai shares during August. Gains during the week's final session were broad-based. China Resources Enterprise was a standout after posting a smaller-than-expected fall in first-half profits. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite closed 0.6% higher. That was enough for its first weekly gain in five weeks. Meanwhile, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index closed with little change. As for Japan, its Nikkei eased back 0.3% to hit a five week low. Daiwa Securities Group dropped and Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group fell amid news that Daiwa plans to buy SMFG's stake in their investment banking joint venture.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30. Stock futures have pulled back a bit following the government's official nonfarm payrolls report, which was just released at 8:30 AM ET. According to the data, August nonfarm payrolls fell 216,000, which is a more shallow drop than the 230,000 job losses that were widely expected. The latest monthly job loss total marks an improvement from the downwardly revised 276,000 nonfarm job losses that were tallied in July and means that August's total marks the fewest number of monthly job losses in one year. Given the latest job loss totals, the unemployment rate now stands at 9.7%, which is above the 9.5% that was widely expected and up from 9.4% in July. The August unemployment rate is now at its highest level since 1983. Meanwhile, average weekly hours for August held steady at 33.1, as expected.
08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. A strong finish in the previous session has given stocks enough upward momentum so that they continue to push higher in this morning's premarket trading. The positive tone comes ahead of the August nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at the bottom of the hour. Investors will watch closely to see how stocks react to the data, since many of the better-than-expected reports released in recent sessions have given way to weakness as participants have opted to sell the news.
06:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30.
06:35 am : Nikkei...10187.11...-27.50...-0.30%. Hang Seng...20318.62...+556.90...+2.80%.
06:35 am : FTSE...4841.36...+44.60...+0.90%. DAX...5347.10...+44.90...+0.90%.
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with trading today and then took two breaks away from the computer because of such. Unfortunately, the price action decided to make it's best moves of the trading day while I was gone. 
@ 