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 Post subject: May 18th Monday 2009
PostPosted: Mon May 18, 2009 4:29 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 2:06 pm
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Key WRB Price Action

2min Regular Session Chart - The 1226pm est interval provided support for price reversals around 1428pm est back to the upside to continue the trend day. However, that same key WRB was also a nice profit target . Later it became a nice profit target area for any short positions that had been open in the price pullback between 1248pm - 1424pm est.

FYI - The above discussion is about one key WRB price action even though there were other key WRB price actions that occurred during the trading day that could be used to confirm entry signals, exit signals, profit targets et cetera.

Simply, knowledge of different types of key WRB's is what results in a complete understanding of the price action being traded as it is occurring in real-time.

Today's trades that were posted in real-time in #FuturesTrades chat room via my IRC user name NihabaAshi. You can review each trade from entry to exit along with commentary and an occasional trading tip because its all archived @

My Trading Performance: +9.00 Emini ES points

051809NihabaAshiPnLBlotterProfit.png [ 32.53 KiB | Viewed 582 times ]


Stocks Get High On Lowe's
Dow climbs 240 points on home improvement retailer's upbeat outlook, a positive housing report and an upgrade of Bank of America's stock.
By Ben Rooney, staff writer
Last Updated: May 18, 2009: 4:14 PM ET

NEW YORK ( -- Stocks rallied Monday, with the Dow adding more than 200 points, after positive news about the U.S. housing market and banking sector encouraged investors to step back in to the market after last week's selloff.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 240 points, or nearly 2.8%, according to early tallies. The S&P 500 (SPX) index rose 3% to close above 900. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) advanced 3.1%.

Bond prices fell. The dollar tumbled against the euro and pound. Oil prices jumped nearly 5%.

Lowe's (LOW, Fortune 500), the No. 2 home-improvement retailer, projected a higher fiscal second-quarter profit after posting a 22% decline in the first quarter that still managed to top analysts' forecasts. Shares rose 8%.

"The housing issue is front and center in the economic recovery," said Quincy Krosby, chief investment strategist at The Hartford. "Lowe's is a major player in that space and their comments are important."

Two private reports helped bolster confidence in the housing market.

The National Association of Home Builders said its index of homebuilder confidence rose for the second month in a row. Separately, NAR said home prices are at their most affordable in nearly two decades.

Shares of financial services companies were boosted after Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500) was upgraded to "buy" by Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500). Analysts said the bank will be able to raise needed capital thanks to gains in mortgage and capital markets activity. BofA gained 10%.

Financial holding company State Street (STT, Fortune 500) announced a $1.45 billion stock offering and said it would also offer non-guaranteed senior notes. The company said it plans to repay its government bailout funds.

Stocks slumped Friday, capping the first weekly decline in all three major indexes in 10 weeks, as investors responded to dour economic news and word of General Motors' (GM, Fortune 500) dealership closings.

"I think we're seeing a bounce after the weakness last week," said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer's Investment Research. "For investors who think the market is going to continue higher, now might be a good time to get back in at prices that are a bit lower."

World markets: Indian stocks soared 17% after election results raised hopes of more political stability. Trading was halted after the surge.

Peter Cardillo, chief market economist for Avalon Partners, said signs of stabilization in India, an emerging economic powerhouse, are helping support the U.S. market.

"The prospects of more stability in India and the surge in their stock market could be beneficial to us," said Cardillo. "I think it's a stabilizing factor for the market."

Most other Asian markets fell. Stocks in Europe closed nearly 2.5% higher.

Rally or bust: A growing sense of economic optimism has lifted shares since the March 9 multi-year lows that many analysts believe represent a bear market bottom.

But the rally hit a wall last week after weaker-than-expected reports on retail sales, housing and weekly jobless claims. That called into question the outlook for economic growth and put investors on the defensive.

Market participants are trying to determine if last week's pullback was a temporary dip on the way up, or a sign of more weakness to come.

To that end, Krosby said investors are watching key technical levels on the S&P 500, which closed near the bottom of its recent trading range Friday. She said a close above the 900 level Monday, with a high degree of participation, would set the scene for a push higher.

"This week is very important for both bulls and bears," she said.

Bonds: Treasury prices slumped, raising the yield on the benchmark 10-year note to 3.21% from 3.13% Friday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

Other markets: In currency trading, the dollar rose versus the yen, but fell sharply against the euro and British pound.

U.S. light crude oil for June delivery rose $2.69 to settle at $59.03 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

COMEX gold for June delivery fell $9.60 to settle at $921.70 an ounce.

The national average price of a gallon of unleaded gasoline rose to $2.31, its 20th consecutive increase, according to a daily reading released by the motorist group AAA. The price of gas has increased by about 25 cents a gallon in the last three weeks, according to the Lundberg Survey.


Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Stocks closed at session highs as diversified bank stocks and financial services stocks steadily led the broader market to its best single-session percentage advance in nearly two weeks.

Bank of America (BAC 11.73, +1.06) was a primary leader among financials after reports indicated that analysts at Goldman Sachs added shares of BAC to their Conviction Buy List. Even in the face of persistent capital concerns, regional banks jumped 7.1%, diversified banks finished 8.5% higher, and diversified financial services companies advanced 7.6%. The KBW Banking index climbed 7.5%.

Strength in bank stocks led the financial sector to a 7.2% gain, and helped carry the S&P 500 back above 900 as the broader market's advancing issues outnumbered its decliners by 10-to-1.

The positive bias also helped pare losses in the utilities sector, which looked as if it would close lower for its fourth straight session. Instead, utilities finished flat.

Buyers favored cyclical stocks for most of the session, bidding materials stocks (+3.6%), industrial stocks (+3.2%), and shares of retailers (+4.5%) higher. Retailers received added support amid better-than-expected top and bottom line quarterly results and an upbeat earnings outlook from home improvement outfit Lowe's (LOW 20.13, +1.68) helped home improvement retailers tack on 7.0%.

Home improvement retailers will likely have their gains tested Tuesday as April housing starts and building permits data hits news wires (8:30 AM ET). No other economic data is scheduled for release ahead of tomorrow morning's opening bell.

According to Reuters, Macy's (M 12.14, +0.81) was added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs, winning additional favor for retailers. Reuters also reported that Goldman cut its rating on Nordstrom (JWN 22.96, +0.38), but shares of JWN were able to overcome sellers' initial efforts and close higher with its peers.

Energy stocks (+3.1%) climbed as crude oil futures rallied 4.8% to settle pit trading just above $59 per barrel at a six-month closing high.

Precious metals fell out of favor, though, as equities bounded in broad-based fashion. Gold prices settled 1.0% lower at $921.70 per ounce, while silver slipped 1.3% to settle the session at $13.93 per ounce.

Also a defensive benchmark, the 10-year Treasury Note dropped 23 ticks, lifting its yield to roughly 3.22%.

Trading volume during the session was rather low, however. Roughly 1.4 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE.DJ30 +235.44 NASDAQ +52.22 NQ100 +2.8% R2K +4.0% SP400 +3.8% SP500 +26.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2158/2.02 bln/543 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2722/1.42 bln/361

3:30 pm : Stocks continue to log impressive, broad-based gains in the final hour of trading, while commodities have closed pit trading with energy contract prices markedly higher and precious metals prices markedly lower.

Crude oil futures traded in the green for the entire session, rallying 4.8% to $59.03 per barrel, which marks crude's highest closing level in six months. Meanwhile, natural gas prices advanced a more modest 0.9% to $4.14 per contract.

Amid strength in equities, precious metals prices were pressured for the entire session. Gold prices were bid 1.0% lower to $921.70 per ounce, while silver slipped 1.3% to settle the session at $13.93 per ounce.

Though falling gold and silver prices weighed on the CRB Commodity Index, the outsized advance by crude prices has propelled the CRB 2.1% higher.DJ30 +187.49 NASDAQ +44.44 SP500 +21.64 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2110/1.58 bln/592 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2646/905 mln/421

3:00 pm : After trading sideways for most of the afternoon, stocks have moved another leg higher to register fresh session highs. Strength in financial stocks continues to underpin the broader market's advance; financials are currently up 5.4%.

Utilities remain in a rut, however. Utilities are down 0.4% and make up the only major sector in the S&P 500 to trade with a loss.

Meanwhile, AT&T (T 24.63, -0.26) is the only Dow component currently trading in the red. The rest of the telecom sector is up 0.2%.DJ30 +202.38 NASDAQ +44.27 SP500 +21.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2099/1.45 bln/590 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2637/824 mln/418

2:30 pm : The major indices continue to head mostly sideways as they trade with strong gains.

Buying interest is broad-based, with advancers outpacing decliners by 5-to-1 on the NYSE and by 3-to-1 on the Nasdaq.DJ30 +169.81 NASDAQ +32.90 SP500 +17.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1988/1.28 bln/666 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2541/735 mln/500

2:00 pm : Stocks are stuck in a narrow trading range, moving sideways for the last hour.

Gains in the broader market remain strong, but telecom has surrendered its early advance to trade with a 0.1% loss. Telecom had been up 1.5% at its session high.

The downward move by telecom comes as integrated telcos AT&T (T 24.54, -0.34) and Verizon (VZ 29.72, +0.11) retreat. According to earlier reports, AT&T is considering cutting the price of its monthly service package for iPhone owners. DJ30 +175.94 NASDAQ +32.35 SP500 +17.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1989/1.21 bln/659 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2514/696 mln/518

1:30 pm : Stocks are easing back from recent session highs. Still, gains remain healthy and broad-based.

In a midday speech, Treasury Secretary Geithner stated that financial markets have clearly stabilized, according to Dow Jones. Meanwhile Reuters reported that Geithner stated that government should not set caps on executive compensation, but should look at creating an incentive structure instead. DJ30 +174.83 NASDAQ +32.74 SP500 +18.31 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1968/1.12 bln/647 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2499/642 mln/517

1:00 pm : Though there haven't been any headlines to motivate buying, the stock market has been trading with solid gains for the entire session. The upward move is largely owed to strength in the financial sector.

There weren't any economic reports released this morning and Lowe's (LOW 20.13, +1.68) was the only widely-held company to announce its latest earnings results ahead of the opening bell. However, the home improvement retailer's better-than-expected earnings and upbeat forecast helped support an early bias to the upside.

Strength in shares of LOW is providing support to peer Home Depot (HD 26.01, +1.61), and helping drive shares of retailers to a 4.0% gain. Interest in retailer stocks has also supported a 25% surge in shares of Dillard's (DDS 9.52, +2.01), which had reported surprise earnings heading into the weekend.

Despite the impressive move by retailers, financial stocks have been the primary driver behind the stock market's advance this session. Financials are up 5.3%, more than any other sector.

Bank of America (BAC 11.785, +1.08) is garnering some of the strongest interest amid reports that analysts at Goldman Sachs have added shares of BAC to their Conviction Buy List. The vote of confidence has also won support for other diversified bank stocks (+6.3%) and diversified financial services companies (+5.9%).

Regional banks (+5.5%) are also finding support in the face of a Financial Times report suggesting that small to mid-size U.S. banks may need roughly $24 billion in capital.

With many financial firms looking to raise capital, whether to satisfy regulators' requirements or to take advantage of the surge in financial share prices during recent weeks, State Street (STT 41.16, +2.65) is the latest financial outfit to announce a public offering. The company is looking to raise $1.5 billion.

Leadership from the financial sector has taken nine of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 into the green (utilities lag with a 0.7% loss). That has helped put the S&P 500 back above 900. DJ30 +188.29 NASDAQ +34.65 SP500 +19.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1963/1.03 bln/628 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2495/586 mln/505

12:30 pm : The S&P 500 is attempting to push through 900 from the underside, but has run into a bit of resistance. The S&P 500 has been trading below the 900 level for the last four sessions, including this morning.DJ30 +164.87 NASDAQ +30.24 SP500 +17.44 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1927/914 mln/663 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2437/528 mln/520

12:00 pm : The major indices have reached fresh session highs. The advance remains broad-based.

The upward move has even helped health care, which had been trading with losses for most of the morning; health care is now trading at the unchanged mark. Health care facilities stocks (-4.3%) remain a considerable drag on the sector, though.DJ30 +151.65 NASDAQ +24.32 SP500 +15.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1871/821 mln/683 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2405/477 mln/535

11:30 am : Utilities stocks are down for the fourth straight session. Including this session's 0.5% slide, the sector has shed almost 6% since last Tuesday's close.

Electric utilities (-1.0%) have been under particular pressure. Amid slower economic conditions and tighter credit conditions, FirstEnergy (FE 36.40, -0.07) announced last week disappointing rate results for one of its Midwest auctions. Allegheny Energy (AYE 23.18, -2.61) also disclosed weak auction results late last week, which led analysts at Barclays to cut its target for Allegheny. Shares of AYE were also downgraded by analysts at Goldman Sachs, according to Dow Jones.DJ30 +158.66 NASDAQ +24.04 SP500 +16.41 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1890/727 mln/637 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2390/418 mln/530

11:00 am : Trading has been relatively choppy in the early going, but stocks have still managed to build on their initial gains. Financials remain the strongest performing sector.

Financial stocks are currently up 4.3% as Bank of America (BAC 12.03, +1.36), Wells Fargo (WFC 26.13, +1.26), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM 35.83, +0.92) provide leadership. Financials have been leading the broader market since the opening bell; even at its session low, the financial sector was up 2.3%.DJ30 +152.44 NASDAQ +25.35 SP500 +15.60 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1876/600 mln/577 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2373/347 mln/489

10:30 am : Precious metal prices are making a rather sharp pullback, but energy prices are bounding to provide support to the CRB Commodity Index.

Precious metals are under pressure in commodity trading. Gold prices were recently quoted 1.1% lower at $920.90 per ounce. The pullback in gold is the sharpest single-session decline by percent since late April.

Meanwhile, silver is currently down 2.0% to $13.73 per ounce.

Crude oil prices are up a robust 3.1% to $58.10 per barrel. The upward move comes after prices fell 3.6% during last Friday's pit trade.

Natural gas prices are making a healthy advance of their own. Natural gas contracts are currently being priced at $4.20 each, up 2.4%.

The advance by energy prices has the CRB Commodity Index sporting a 0.9% gain. The CRB is up 3.8% year-to-date.DJ30 +136.04 NASDAQ +17.81 SP500 +13.09 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1749/447 mln/616 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2283/258 mln/518

10:00 am : Telecom (+0.4%), consumer staples (+0.3%), utilities (-0.1%), and health care (-0.5%), all relatively defensive sectors, are lagging the broader market's early advance. Meanwhile, financials (+2.6%) and energy stocks (+2.2%) are outpacing the broader market.

Small- and mid-cap stocks are putting together strong gains of their own. The S&P 400 Mid-Cap Index is up 1.2% and the Russell 2000 Small-Cap Index is up 1.5% as growth stocks find favor in the wake of a 17% surge by India's Sensex, which scored a victory for emerging markets with encouraging election results.

Early movers: Trading up -- KONA +86.9%, IDMI +53.5%, IBN +37.4%, PIN +23.9%, INP +23.6%, EPI +23.5%, HDB +22.8%, IIF +20.6%, SLT +19.8%, IFN +19.5%, TTM +17%, SAY +16.6%, KWK +16.4%, DDS +15.7%, CNTF +14.5%, INFY +13.6%, ABG +12.6%, WIT +11.4% Trading down -- EDZ -10.8%, OPTR -9.7%, TRF -9%, AYE -7.9%, FXP -7.6%, EEV -6.6%DJ30 +100.04 NASDAQ +15.15 SP500 +9.88 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1726/285 mln/567 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2201/171 mln/549

09:45 am : Stocks are making solid, broad-based gains in the early going as all 10 major sectors in the S&P 500 march higher.

Financial stocks are seeing the most support. The sector is up 2.6% as diversified banks climb 2.9% and diversified financial services companies climb 4.2%. Bank of America (BAC 11.60, +0.93) is a primary leader among the bunch; shares of BAC were added to the Conviction Buy List at Goldman Sachs, according to reports.

Semiconductor stocks are also making solid gains after shares of Broadcom (BRCM 21.54, +0.71) and Micron (MU 4.45, +0.21) were upgraded by analysts at Morgan Stanley. Semiconductor stocks are up 2.3%, currently.DJ30 +112.94 NASDAQ +19.97 SP500 +11.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1763/177 mln/447 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2291/112 mln/406

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +10.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. Overall news flow is slow this morning, but the lack of headlines hasn't prevented participants from bidding stocks higher in premarket trading. Better-than-expected earnings and an upbeat forecast from Lowe's (LOW) has only helped support the positive bias. Banking issues and shares of other financial services companies are garnering particular support following reports that analysts at Goldman Sachs have added shares of Bank of America (BAC) to their buy list, and participants are shrugging off a Financial Times report stating that small to mid-size U.S. banks may still be in need of some $24 billion in capital. An early rebound crude oil prices is winning favor for energy stocks; oil prices are up 3% to $58.00 per barrel in early pit trading. Meanwhile, a surge in India's Sensex following positive election results has won favor for emerging markets, and strong gains in European markets are also helping support a positive bias.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.30. Following a marked decline Friday, crude oil futures prices are advancing just ahead of pit trading. Crude oil was last quoted 3% higher at $58 per barrel. Oil prices are currently up 30% year-to-date, but still down 60% from the highs registered last summer. The uptick this morning in crude oil prices is helping garner support for integrated oild companies and oil exploration and equipment companies in premarket trading.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +8.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.50. Shares of banks and financial services companies are leading Britain's FTSE to a 1.2% gain. HSBC (HBC), Standard Chartered, and Barclays (BCS) are among the session's primary leaders. Lloyds Group (LYG) is also showing strength after its Chairman, Victor Blank, decided he would leave his post within roughly one year. Also, the bank will raise funds intended to pay back shares currently held by the government, according to reports. Meanwhile, mining companies Xstrata (XTA) and Rio Tinto (RTP) are trading as laggards. Shares of RTP were actually upgraded by analysts at Royal Bank of Scotland. France's CAC is up 0.7% with Societe Generale providing leadership. Energy giant Total (TOT) is also showing strength. Germany's DAX is making a 1.2% gain amid a broad-based advance. Allianz (AZ) is currently the primary leader in the DAX. In Asia, Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 1.4% as banking issues garnered support. China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank were among the session's primary leaders. In Japan, the Nikkei slipped 2.4% amid broad-based declines. Canon (CAJ) and Honda Motor (HMC) were primary laggards for the session, but Chugai Pharmaceuticals did offer some support. In India, the Sensex soared over 17% before being halted after India's ruling Congress party won an election.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +9.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.30. There are no economic reports this morning and only a handful of companies are scheduled to issue earnings announcements, making for slow news flow. Among those few companies issuing earnings announcements, Lowe's (LOW) posted first quarter earnings of $0.32 per share, which topped the $0.25 per share consensus estimate. The company expects second quarter earnings to range from $0.51 to $0.55 per share, which exceeds the $0.50 per share that analysts are currently forecasting. As for fiscal 2010, Lowe's expects earnings to range from $1.13 to $1.25 per share, which surpasses the $1.11 per share that analysts have forecast. Shares of LOW are being priced roughly 11% higher at $20.50 per share in premarket trading. Broader stock futures currently point to an upward start for the stock market as participants provide a bid after watching stocks slide 1.1% Friday, and 5% for the week.

06:21 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.50.

06:20 am : Nikkei...9038.69...-226.30...-2.40%. Hang Seng...17022.91...+232.20...+1.40%.

06:20 am : FTSE...4388.20...+39.80...+0.90%. DAX...4745.51...+7.80...+0.20%.

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