TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
wrbanalysis@gmail.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $530.00 dollars or +5.30 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $1,125.00 dollars or +22.50 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $1,655.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab free chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=143&t=2072


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via Advance WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Analysis -----> Trade Signals

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR). All WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1 - 12 are included in the purchase of the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=263&t=2757 contains brief information about trading plan, market context, brokers, trading time frames, position size management and other discussions.

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets


4:15 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market followed up Friday's broad-based rally with an outing on Monday that never got on track due to a variety of reasons:

Technical resistance
The S&P 500 got brushed back early following a test of its closing high for the year (2117.69)
Rising long-term rates with the yield on the 10-yr note hitting new highs for the year at 2.27% and the 30-yr bond yield jumping 13 basis points to 3.03%
Selling was steady all day and unwound all of Friday's post-employment report gains
A particularly weak showing from the energy sector (-2.1%), which failed to get on track after news reports indicated OPEC expects oil prices to stay below $100 for the next decade
Concerns about the state of China's economy after the People's Bank of China announced an interest rate cut for the third time in the last six months
Main lending rate was lowered 25 basis points to 5.10%
Deposit rate was reduced 25 basis points to 2.25%
Ongoing angst about Greece's ability to win access to the next bailout tranche
Relative weakness in Apple (AAPL 126.32, -1.30, -1.0%); and
A lack of leadership in general
Every sector finished lower
The energy sector was the only sector to lose more than 1.0%

By and large, the lack of follow through after testing the all-time closing high took the wind out of the market early and then the market trended steadily lower as long-term rates crept steadily higher.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.2%), and S&P 500 (-0.5%) all ended the day in red figures. The Russell 2000 (+0.2%) finished off its highs for the day, but still managed to close the session higher.

There wasn't any economic data of note out of the U.S. today, yet things will get more interesting on that front later in the week with the release of the April Retail Sales report on Wednesday, the April Producer Price Index on Thursday, and the April Industrial Production report on Friday.

On a related note, San Francisco Fed President Williams (an FOMC voter) told CNBC that he believes the first quarter weakness was an anomaly and that he expects the economy to rebound. That didn't help sentiment at the front of the Treasury curve either as the yield on the 2-yr note jumped four basis points to 0.62%.

The three major indices ended the day with a whimper, finishing at or near their lows for the session. After falling 15% on Friday, the CBOE Volatility Index increased 7.3% on Monday

Trading volume was light with just 680 million shares changing hands at the NYSE. That was approximately 14% below the volume seen in Friday's rally effort.

3:40 pm: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar index remained in positive territory all day today, which helped weigh on commodities prices today
However, in early morning trade, commodities including oil, gold and silver were showing some gains despite seeing strength in the dollar
WTI crude oil ultimately ended the day -$0.18 at $59.24/barrel. June nat gas dropped 3% to $2.80/MMBtu
Precious metals closed lower as well
June gold lost $6.20 to $1182.90/oz, while July silver fell $0.18 to $16.30/oz
Copper ended at $2.91/lb, down one cent.

2:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Slowly but surely, longer-dated Treasuries have been on the defensive all day. That has been a deterrent for the equity market, which is witnessing the 10-yr yield hit its highest level this year at 2.27% and the 30-yr bond yield climb above 3.00% (now 3.02%).

The adjustment in yields today has completely erased Friday's post-employment report gains and then some.

Some will be tempted to call the unwinding a reflation trade so to speak, yet so far the money coming out of longer-dated Treasuries today hasn't found its way into stocks to any noticeable extent.

The Dow and S&P 500 are plumbing their lows for the session while the Nasdaq is to stay in positive territory. The energy sector continues to extend its losses and is now down 2.0% for the session.

2:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The afternoon trade continues with the Dow and S&P 500 dipping to new session lows in the last half hour as the yield on the 10-yr note has revisited its high for the year at 2.24%.

Overall, things have remained pretty consistent since the opening bell. Neither buyers nor sellers are showing much conviction (although sellers have had the upper hand in the broader market); the energy sector (-1.9%) continues to lag badly despite some M&A activity in the space, and market rates continue to back up.

On the M&A front, Noble Energy (NBL 46.19, -2.93) announced today that it is going to acquire Rosetta Resources (ROSE 24.64, +5.31) in a $2.1 billion stock deal.

Notably, the CBOE Volatility Index is up 4.0% at 13.37, pushing its best levels of the day as stocks hang near their worst levels.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major indices remain stuck in their mixed state as neither buyers nor sellers have shown a great deal of conviction to this point.

With no new economic data, we look ahead to the April retail sales report.

Retail sales increased 0.9% in March after declining 0.5% in February. The Briefing.com Consensus expects retail sales increased 0.2% in April.

A significant portion of the March gain was the result of a rebound in motor vehicle sales. According to the motor vehicle manufacturer sales reports, those sales likely reversed again in April. Only 16.5 mln SAAR vehicles were sold in April. That was down from 17.1 mln SAAR in March.

Excluding motor vehicle sales, retail sales increased 0.4% in March after sales were flat in February. The consensus expects these sales increased 0.4% in April.

The April employment data showed that aggregate earnings increased by 0.3%. If consumers keep their savings rate stable, the increase in income is enough to maintain positive consumption growth.

1:35 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major U.S. indices remain mixed in a quiet trading session so far. The Nasdaq continues to lead the Dow and S&P 500.

In equities, shares in Zulily (ZU 14.34, +1.05) are off their earlier highs but continue to show meaningful gains following a filing late Friday from Alibaba Group (BABA 87.14, +0.04) which showed they had purchased about $56 mln in Zulily shares in the days after the online e-commerce site reported Q1 earnings and provided disappointing Q2 and FY15 guidance. Alibaba previously had a stake in the name, but the share purchases last week pushed their stake over 5%, requiring them to formally disclose their position to the market. Zulily shares were trading above $16 this morning on the news, but have trended lower since the market open. ZU is up ~58% from the all-time lows it hit following the company's Q1 report last week.

Elsewhere, Caterpillar (CAT 89.32, +2.01) and Joy Global (JOY 44.39, +2.36) are outperforming after both were upgraded to Outperform at Robert W. Baird.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] There isn't a whole lot to say about today's market because it hasn't produced a lot of action to say much about. The major indices have pretty much been mixed and relatively close to where they began the day for most of today's session.

Some of the lackluster behavior can be attributed to uncertainty about what comes next after Friday's big rally returned the S&P 500 to the top end of the trading range it has been locked in this year. That uncertainty revolves around whether there will be a breakout or a breakdown.

Economic releases later in the week, which include the Retail Sales, PPI, and Industrial Production reports, could hold some answers, as could any developments out of the Eurogroup meeting currently underway to discuss the Greek situation.

Greece is expected to make a EUR 750 million payment to the IMF on Tuesday. Reports today have suggested the country is on track to do that, but the added overhang is whether Greece is able to convince its lenders that it is worthy of the next bailout tranche.

Time will tell, but a wait-and-see attitude has pervaded the market today.

There was an ostensible catalyst to get things going today in the Sunday announcement from the People's Bank of China that it is cutting its main lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each to 5.10% and 2.25%, respectively. That news gave the Shanghai Composite (+3.0%) a jolt, yet it failed to ignite similar enthusiasm elsewhere, perhaps because the third rate cut in six months has created some angst that China's economy is in worse shape than people think.

Another limiting factor today has been the jump in market rates . Following a brief reprieve from selling interest on Friday, selling activity has resumed today in Europe and the U.S. The yield on the German bund has risen six basis points to 0.61% while the yield on the 10-yr Treasury note has risen seven basis points to 2.22%, leaving it on the cusp of testing yield resistance at 2.24%.

Within the stock market, there hasn't been much leadership to speak of. The health care sector (+0.2%) is the only sector in positive territory. The energy sector (-1.7%) has been weak from the start and is the worst-performing area in the S&P 500. Other influential laggards include the information technology (-0.4%) and basic materials (-0.4%) sectors.

Small-cap stocks are outperforming their larger brethren, evidenced by the 0.5% gain in the Russell 2000.

Volume is on the lighter side with 279 mln shares traded at the NYSE while market internals reflect the mixed action overall. Decliners lead advancers at the NYSE by a 17-to-13 margin while advancers lead decliners at the Nasdaq by an 8-to-5 margin.

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Some brushback for the major indices in the last half hour as the Dow and S&P 500 hit new intraday lows. There wasn't a specific news catalyst for the dip; everything just kind of headed south in unison.

With the recent weakness, the health care sector (+0.1%) is the only sector that is sporting a gain at this time.

The energy sector (-1.7%) remains the primary source of weakness.

Traders are no doubt keeping an eye on the Treasury market's behavior, knowing that the spike in rates last week caused some angst before the April employment report eased some of the rate-hike concern. The yield on the 10-yr note has jumped eight basis points today to 2.23%.

12:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] There's not much happening in terms of broad market movement. The indecision perhaps marks a bit of a cooling off period following some big moves last week that included a big reversal in oil, a crack in the bond market, and a spike in stocks back up to range highs.

"What next?" is probably a question on the front of participants' minds as they wait to see if there is a breakout or a breakdown for the S&P 500 in coming days.

The only area of real weakness today is the energy sector (-1.4%), which is seeing most of the oil service/drilling and integrated oil companies trade lower.

ExxonMobil (XOM 87.35, -0.91) is the worst-performing stock in the Dow Jones Industrial Average in terms of percentage loss, but only by a whisker ahead of Apple (AAPL 126.32, -1.30).

11:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] More of the same mixed action as the major indices hold relatively close to where they started the day.

The best performer among the averages today is the Russell 2000, which is up 0.5%, bringing its month-to-date gain to 1.7%.

The utilities sector, up 0.7% a short time ago, has rolled over in recent action and is now up just 0.1%. The yield on the 10-yr Treasury note is at 2.21%, but 2.24% is the real point of interest as that has provided resistance in yield since the start of the year.

Separately, higher market rates have provided a kick of late to the financial sector (+0.1%), which is the market's second best-performing sector this month with a 2.5% gain, trailing only the health care sector, which is up 2.6%.

11:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market hasn't shown a propensity to get anywhere fast today. Early action has been somewhat choppy and has been accented with a slightly downward bias.

The S&P 500 dipped below 2111 at the bottom of the last hour, but appeared to catch a little bounce on headlines suggesting Greece has executed an order to make its EUR 750 million payment to the IMF on Tuesday.

There hasn't been a lot of strong leadership today, but modest gains in the utilities (+0.6%), consumer staples (+0.3%), and health care (+0.2%) sectors have helped keep losses in check. Notably, those three sectors are all considered to have a defensive orientation.

While there hasn't been much in the way of stock market movement today, the CBOE Volatility Index is up 3.7% to 13.34 after declining 15% on Friday.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

The dollar has been trading in the black for most of the session and has put modest pressure on certain commodities this morning.
The index is currently trading at +0.2% at 94.96
Precious metals and crude oil seem to be trading more-so on non-dollar catalysts however, as June gold is up $0.10 to $1189/oz, while May Silver is +0.3% to $16.57/oz
WTI has been moving on a mixture of global demand data from China and the US and rose as high as $59.77/barrel about 30 minutes after floor trade opened
June crude oil is now -0.2% to $59.27/barrel
Copper rallied from overnight lows on renewed bullish sentiment from a Chinese interest rate cut, but has given up those gains in most recent trade and has spent all morning in the red.
The July copper contract is now -0.6% to $2.90/lb
July natural gas is flat at $2.88/MMBtu, trading on mixed regional weather forecasts over the near term.

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The trading action is mixed at the start of today's session. Five sectors are and five sectors are down. The biggest laggard is the energy sector (-1.2%).

The health care (+0.3%) and consumer discretionary (+0.3%) sectors are doing what they can to provide some offsetting support, but without any convincing leadership elsewhere, the market is finding it challenging to gain upside traction.

In turn, the lackluster effort to break above 2120 and challenge the all-time intraday high of 2125 has curtailed buying efforts.

There isn't any economic data of note out of the U.S. today, so the market will be left to deal with corporate news and other headlines.

9:45 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The stock market started lower as suggested by the futures market and then sprung back just as quickly as if it was allergic to negative territory. The test for the S&P 500 will be at the 2120 level, which has basically been the top end of its trading range in 2015.

The energy sector (-0.5%) is a soft spot in the early going even though crude futures (+0.5% at $59.66/bbl) have pressed higher in morning trade.

Separately, the utilities sector (+0.3%) quickly worked its way back from an opening dip as it tries to recoup recent losses stemming from the recent jump in market rates.


9:17 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -0.50. The S&P futures continue to sit pretty tight, pointing to a slight downward bias when trading begins.

There isn't any economic data of note out of the U.S. today, but key reports later in the week include the April Retail Sales report on Wednesday, the April PPI report on Thursday, and the April Industrial Production report on Friday.

9:05 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.80. The S&P futures have moved off their overnight lows, but continue to point to a modestly lower start for the cash market.

Some halting influences in the early-going include range-top resistance with the S&P 500 pressing its highs for the year again, the latest Eurogroup meeting on Greece, which is taking place today, and the nagging notion that China's third interest rate cut in six months points to an economy in worse shape than many had thought.

In turn, bond rates in Europe and the U.S. have pushed higher again, which is providing an early distraction for market bulls.

8:30 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -2.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -2.00. Coming off Friday's broad-based rally in the U.S. stock market, the S&P futures are up one point this morning but are still trading slightly below fair value. The futures, however, have shown some upward momentum in the last hour or so, recovering from some larger losses in overnight action. One of the lead headlines today relates to the People's Bank of China's decision on Sunday to cut its lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each to 5.10% and 2.25%, respectively. That marks the third rate cut in six months.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

Actavis (ACT 300.00, +7.18): Trading up 2.5% in pre-market action following better than expected first quarter results and in-line guidance for FY15
Dean Foods (DF 17.65, +1.37): Up 8.4% in pre-market trading after better than expected Q1 results and issuing Q2 guidance above analysts' average expectations
FMC Corp (FMC 60.95): Reported Q1 results that fell short of expectations and guided FY15 EPS below consensus estimates

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mostly higher following the PBOC interest rate cut announcement. China's Shanghai Composite led the way with a 3.0% gain
In economic data:
China's April CPI +1.5% month-over-month (expected +1.6%; last +1.4%).
Australia's April NAB Business Confidence 3 (prior 3); April NAB Business Survey 4 (last 6)
In news:
Japanese company Sharp plummeted 26% after a capital reduction report
Major European indices are mostly lower. England's FTSE 100 +0.2%, but Germany's DAX Index -0.3% and France's CAC 40 -1.0%.
Economic data was limited:
Sweden's April PES Unemployment rate 3.8% (expected 3.9%)
Norway April CPI +0.4% month-over-month (expected +0.3%)
The Netherlands March Manufacturing Production -1.4% (prior +1.7%)
Denmark March CPI +0.1% (expected +0.1%)
News of note:
The Bank of England left its key interest rate and the purchasing program unchanged at their respective 0.5% and GBP375 billion
Eurogroup ministers meeting to discuss Greece and related matters

5:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -4.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.20.

5:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...19620.91...+241.70...+1.30%. Hang Seng...27718.20...+140.90...+0.50%.

5:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...7069.62...+22.60...+0.30%. DAX...11658.41...-47.00...-0.40%.

Dollar Climbs on Fed Rate Bets as U.S. Shakes Off Winter Chill

The dollar is rising in May as investor confidence grows that the Federal Reserve will lift interest rates this year while global peers stick to unprecedented easing.

The greenback gained Monday along with U.S. yields as San Francisco Fed President John Williams reiterated policy makers could lift borrowing costs at any meeting, after employment indicators showed signs of recovering from a harsh winter. Trading patterns suggest momentum is turning after a gauge of the U.S. currency slumped to a three-month low last week. New Zealand’s dollar has been the worst performer this month as traders raised bets its central bank will need to cut rates.

“It looks like the downturn in the U.S. data was due to the winter weather, so the expectation now is for a rebound,” supporting the dollar and pushing up yields, said Naohiro Nomoto, an associate for currency trading at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in New York. A Fed rate increase is still likely this year, but “it’s really going to depend on the data,” he said.

The dollar was little changed at $1.1162 per euro as of 11:50 a.m. in Tokyo, following Monday’s 0.4 percent gain. It climbed 0.1 percent to 120.18 yen, adding to a 0.3 percent advance.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was at 1,168.33 after jumping 0.4 percent to 1,168.96 in New York. It touched 1,157.11 on May 6, a level unseen since Feb. 6.

It is now up 0.3 percent in May, after a 3 percent drop in April -- the first losing month since June.

Shifting Momentum

The gauge broke above its 10-day moving average on Monday, a sign that momentum may be shifting in the dollar’s favor following a drop of as much as 5.4 percent from the highest in data going back to 2004. Another measure known as slow stochastics crossed its signal line on May 7, indicating a potential bottom.

U.S. payrolls increased 223,000 last month after an 85,000 gain in March that was revised down from 126,000 and was the smallest since June 2012, figures from the Labor Department showed in Washington on Friday.

Recent labor market data “has breathed some life into the U.S. dollar in that it has heightened sentiment the slowdown in economic growth is indeed transitory,” Nordine Naam, a strategist at Natixis SA in Paris, wrote in a client note dated May 11. The rally “will pick up gradually over coming months,” the note said.

Rate Outlook

The yield on benchmark 10-year Treasury notes ended Monday at 2.28 percent, the highest close since Dec. 5. The premium over Group of Seven peers was 1.39 basis points, near the highest this year.

Swaps traders predict about 65 basis points of policy tightening by the Fed over the next 12 months, according to a Credit Suisse Group AG index. That compares to 43 basis points of easing at the Reserve Bank of New Zealand.

Kiwi bears continue “to gorge on the now seemingly consensus expectation that the RBNZ will be cutting rates, starting as early as next month,” Ray Attrill, global co-head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney, wrote in a note Tuesday.

The New Zealand dollar has tumbled 3.5 percent against the greenback so far this month, to 73.49 U.S. cents.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, Briefing, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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