TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Phone: +1 708 572-4885
Free Chat Room: http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164
Business Hours: 8am - 5pm est (Mon - Fri)
questions@thestrategylab.com (24/7)
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader (24/7)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Price Action Trade Performance for Today: Emini TF ($TF_F) futures @ $3,020.00 dollars or +30.20 points, Emini ES ($ES_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +00.00 points, Light Crude Oil CL ($CL_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points, Gold GC ($GC_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.00 points and EuroFX 6E ($6E_F) futures @ $0.00 dollars or +0.0000 ticks. Total Profit @ $3,020.00 dollars

Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures: 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Light Crude Oil CL (WTI) Futures: 1 tick or 0.01 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
Gold GC Futures: 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup
EuroFX 6E Futures: 1 tick or 0.0001 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup

Trade Log: All of my trades were posted real-time in the timestamp ##TheStrategyLab chat room. You can read today's price action trading information about my trades (e.g. time, price entry, contract size, price exit) as the trade traversed to its completion. Also, sometimes I'll post real-time trading tips in ##TheStrategyLab chat room involving WRBs, WRB Hidden GAPs, Key Market Events (KME), Tutorial Chapters 2 & 3, WRB Zones, Reaction Highs/Lows, Contracting Volatility or Expanding Volatility. Its all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=136&t=1942


Also, posted below are direct links to information about my price action trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis). I'm primarily a day trader because it suits my personal lifestyle but I do occasionally swing trade and position trade. Simply, my trade method is applicable for position trading, swing trading and day trading.

##TheStrategyLab Chat Room is free. Members and I use the chat room to post WRB Analysis commentary, real-time trades and to post anything else related to trading. The chat room helps me tremendously in my own trading because I use it to document (journal) general volatility analysis involving WRB Analysis so that I can easily review at a later date my thoughts as I interacted with the markets...info I can not get from my broker statements. Also, this is not a signal calling chat room where a head trader tells you when to buy or sell and I do not have the time/energy/resources to manage a signal calling chat room. Access instructions for chat room @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=164

Price Action Analysis via WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718

Trade Signal Strategies via Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our price action trade strategies with support (answering your questions) prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=250&t=2561

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Market Context Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/BOE/IMF actions or any important global economic events (e.g. Eurozone, MarketWatch.com) that had an impact on today's price action in many trading instruments I monitor during the trading day. Simply, I'm a strong believer that key market events causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility resulting in trade opportunities (swing points and strong continuation price actions) that reach profit targets. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events, intermarket analysis (e.g. Forex EurUsd, EuroFX 6E futures, Gold GC futures, Light Crude Oil (WTI) CL & Brent Oil futures, Eurex DAX futures, Euronext FTSE100 futures, Emini ES futures, Emini TF futures, Treasury ZB futures and U.S. Dollar Index futures) while using WRB Analysis from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for price action trading before the appearance of my technical analysis trade signals. Therefore, I maintain these archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past involving key market events to help better understand my trade decisions (day trading, swing trading, position trading)...something I can not get from my broker statements alone. Further, most financial websites remove (delete) their archives after a few years to make room for new content. Therefore, I maintain my own archives of the news content so that I have it available for me when financial websites no longer archives their content.


click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

3:00 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 trades flat with one hour remaining in the session. The benchmark index spiked at the start in reaction to a better than expected revision to Q3 GDP, but was unable to build on its early strength. The index returned to its flat line 30 minutes into the session and has traded within four points of its unchanged level since then.

With the market closed on Thursday, tomorrow will bring a full slate of economic data. The MBA Mortgage Index will cross the wires at 7:00 ET while weekly Initial Claims, October Durable Orders, and October Personal Income/Spending Data will be released at 8:30 ET. The Chicago PMI for November will cross at 9:45 ET while the final reading of the Michigan Sentiment Survey will be released at 9:55 ET. The busy day will be topped off with New and Pending Home Sales reports with both set to be reported at 10:00 ET.

2:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices continue hovering just above their flat lines, but Treasuries have climbed to new highs for the day. The 10-yr note spiked following today's strong 5-yr auction and has continued advancing since then. The benchmark yield is now lower by four basis points at 2.27% while the long bond has also dropped four basis points to 2.98%.

Also of note, the Dollar Index (87.88, -0.27) has slipped to a new low with the euro and yen gaining ground against the greenback. The Index spiked to highs in reaction to the GDP report, but was back in the red by the opening bell.

1:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Not much change in the major averages with the S&P 500 trading just a point above its flat line. Six of ten sectors hold gains with the leading group-industrials-trading higher by 0.4%.

The industrial sector has been able to overtake technology (+0.3%) for the lead with help from transport stocks. The Dow Jones Transportation Average is higher by 0.7% with all but two components trading in the green. Including today's gain, the bellwether complex is higher by 9.2% so far this quarter versus a 5.0% gain for the S&P 500.

1:25 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major US indices remain at break-even levels in another thin trade. While there was conflicting economic data this morning, investors seem to be intrigued by the weak consumer confidence data ahead of the biggest shopping weekend of the year.

Oil continues to experience a volatile session ahead of Thursday's much anticipated OPEC meeting, with crude prices currently down 1.6% on the day, reaching levels earlier not seen since 2010.

In equities, Merck (MRK 59.50, +0.25) announced it is increasing its quarterly dividend 2% to $0.45 per share, the first increase in a year. There are no scheduled Fed speakers nor any notable economic data the remainder of the day.

12:55 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages are little changed at midday with the Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all trading within 0.1% of their respective flat lines.

Equities began the day on a modestly higher note after receiving a pre-market boost from the Q3 GDP report, which was revised up to 3.9% from 3.5% (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%). However, the opening spike marked the session high for the benchmark index, which has spent the bulk of the first half near its flat line.

Over the past few sessions, investors have been reminded time and time again that the S&P 500 is due for a pullback after soaring more than 13.0% from its mid-October low. Strikingly, the index has resisted selling efforts repeatedly and is doing so once again today.

The energy sector (-0.9%) weighs, with the decline coming after a meeting between Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Venezuela did not result in an agreement to reduce output. Crude responded by sliding to lows, but recently inched up from those levels amid reports OPEC members may opt for a supply cut. Crude remains lower by 1.1% at $74.93/bbl. The recent OPEC news lifted the energy sector off its low and sent the benchmark index back into the green. Outside of energy, the remaining sectors trade closer to their flat lines.

On the upside, the technology sector (+0.4%) has shown strength since the start. The early outperformance was fueled by shares of Apple (AAPL 117.73, -0.90), but the top-weighted sector component has slid into the red. Other large cap components have filled the void with Google (GOOGL 551.31, +3.83), Qualcomm (QCOM 72.18, +0.49), and Intel (INTC 36.40, +0.15) up between 0.4% and 0.7%.

Elsewhere among influential sectors, the consumer discretionary space (+0.3%) holds a modest gain after several components reported earnings. Brown Shoe (BWS 31.02, +2.54), DSW (DSW 34.31, +0.66), and Signet Jewelers (SIG 129.72, +6.73) beat estimates while Tiffany & Co (TIF 107.03, +2.02) missed by a penny.

Treasuries hover in the middle of their trading range with the 10-yr yield lower by a basis point at 2.29%.

Economic data included Q3 GDP, Case-Shiller 20-city Index, FHFA Housing Price Index, and Consumer Confidence:

Third quarter GDP was revised up to 3.9% in the second estimate from 3.5% while the Briefing.com consensus expected a reading of 3.2%
All of the gain in third quarter GDP resulted from an upward swing in inventories
Real final sales were revised down to 4.1% from 4.2%
The positive surprise was mostly the result of an unexpected upward revision to personal consumption expenditures with goods spending in the third quarter revised up to 4.3% from 3.1%
The Case-Shiller 20-city Index for September rose 4.9%, which was ahead of the Briefing.com consensus (4.6%)
The September FHFA Housing Price Index was unchanged to follow last month's 0.4% uptick
The Consumer Confidence Index dropped to 88.7 in November from a downwardly revised 94.1 (from 94.5) while the Briefing.com consensus expected an increase to 96.0.
The Present Conditions Index declined to 91.3 from 94.4 while the Expectations Index fell to 87.0 from 93.8

12:30 pm: [BRIEFING.COM] Recent action saw the S&P 500 try to turn positive, but the index has been rejected by its flat line. That being said, narrow ranges remain in effect amid light intraday volume.

With 241 million shares having changed hands at the NYSE, today's volume is tracking below yesterday's tally, which came in at 693 million. That was a little below the 200-day average of 698 million and well behind the 50-day average of 793 million. Traditionally, the final few weeks of the year tend to see lighter trading activity with several holidays on the horizon.

Elsewhere, Treasuries remain near their highs with the 10-yr yield lower by two basis points at 2.29%.

11:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages remain inside narrow ranges near their flat lines. The Dow (+0.1%) and Nasdaq (+0.1%) hover just above their unchanged levels while the S&P 500 (-0.1%) continues hovering in the red.

Similar to the major averages, most sectors trade within earshot of their flat lines while energy (-1.5%) and technology (+0.5%) represent the only two movers of note. The utilities sector (-0.5%) has also distanced itself from the broader market, but the group accounts for just 3.0% of the entire market.

With stocks trading little changed, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX 12.62, 0.00) is also flat, suggesting participants have not done much with their hedges.

11:25 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Equity indices have slipped to new lows with the S&P 500 widening its decline to 0.2%. The continued retreat has caused the consumer discretionary sector (-0.1%) to join seven other groups in negative territory.

Similar to the discretionary space, other heavily-weighted sectors like industrials (-0.1%) and health care (-0.2%) trade little changed while energy (-1.7%) and financials (-0.4%) weigh.

Notably, the energy sector has dropped to a session low amid comparable weakness in crude oil. The energy component is lower by 1.8% at $74.39/bbl after a meeting between Russia, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, and Venezuela did not result in an agreement to reduce output.

10:55 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (-0.1%) trades near its session low after dipping into the red about an hour ago. However, it is worth noting that the benchmark index has held within a two-point range since turning negative while its intraday range is only a bit wider at seven points.

The technology sector (+0.4%) grabbed the lead at the start and the top-weighted sector remains strong at this juncture. Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (+0.1%) has inched away from its high, but remains ahead of the broader market. Homebuilders have contributed to the retreat from highs as the iShares Dow Jones US Home Construction ETF (ITB 25.90, -0.18) trades lower by 0.7%.

Elsewhere, Treasuries have returned to their morning highs. The 10-yr yield is lower by two basis points at 2.29%.

10:35 am: [BRIEFING.COM]

Oil prices are higher this morning, following weakness yesterday, ahead of Thursday's OPEC meeting
OPEC is scheduled to meet on Thursday to decide if they will cut production or not in an attempt to give global oil prices a boost by providing a better supply/demand balance.
Since June, oil prices have declined notably. More specifically, since June 16, WTI crude oil fell as much as 31% to $74.21/barrel (continuous).
Meanwhile, since June 19, and Brent crude has declined 33% to as low as $77.83/barrel (continuous).
In current action, WTI crude oi is +0.6% at $76.26/barrel, while Brent crude is +0.6% at $80.18/barrel
Natural gas futures have been in the red this morning, largely driven by the current mild weather outlook
Dec nat gas is now -0.6% at $4.28/MMBtu
Dec gold is trading +0.3% at $1199.20.oz, Dec silver is +1.6% at $16.65/oz and Dec copper is -0.5% at $2.99/lb

10:00 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 has slipped from its high, but remains just above its flat line.

Just released, the consumer confidence reading for November came in at 88.7, while economists polled by Briefing.com expected the survey to come in at 96.0. This followed the prior month's revised reading of 94.1 (from 94.5).

9:40 am: [BRIEFING.COM] The major averages have climbed out of the gate with the Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%) showing relative strength for the second consecutive day. The index has been underpinned by Apple (AAPL 119.68, +1.06), which trades up 0.9% with its market cap surpassing the $700 billion mark.

With Apple showing early strength, the technology sector (+0.6%) trades ahead of the broader market. Meanwhile, chipmakers trade ahead of the broader market, but behind the sector with the PHLX Semiconductor Index up 0.3%.

Outside of technology, seven other sectors trade in the green while telecom services (-0.1%) and utilities (-0.4%) hover in the red.

Treasuries have inched up from their lows after holding support at the unchanged level. The 10-yr yield is lower by one basis point at 2.30%.

The Consumer Confidence report for November (Briefing.com consensus 96.0) will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:09 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.20. The stock market is on track to begin the Tuesday session on a modestly higher note. The S&P 500 futures trade three points above fair value with a portion of the advance coming after the second revision to Q3 GDP showed an increase of 3.9% versus 3.5% that was reported in the preliminary reading. The revision surpassed the Briefing.com consensus, which expected a downward adjustment to 3.2%.

The news gave a small boost to the Dollar Index (88.25, +0.09) while the 10-yr note slipped from its best level of the morning, leaving the benchmark yield flat at 2.31%.

On the corporate front, discretionary components will be in focus after DSW (DSW 36.15, +2.50), Signet Jewelers (SIG 126.50, +3.51) and Movado (MOV 27.27, +0.34) reported better than expected results while Tiffany & Co (TIF 109.00, +3.99) missed by a penny.

The Consumer Confidence report for November (Briefing.com consensus 96.0) will be released at 10:00 ET.

9:01 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. The September Housing Price Index from the FHFA was unchanged.

Separately, the Case-Shiller 20-city Home Price Index for September rose 4.9% against a 4.6% increase expected by the Briefing.com consensus. This followed the previous month's increase of 5.6%.

8:58 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +3.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. The S&P 500 futures trade three points above fair value.

Markets ended mixed across Asia. The Bank of Japan released the minutes from its latest meeting, which revealed concerns about potential side effects from the recent easing decision among several policymakers. Elsewhere, Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Lowe suggested the Aussie remains overvalued.

In economic data:
Hong Kong's trade deficit narrowed to HKD49.80 billion from HKD50.40 billion (expected deficit of HKD45.30 billion) as exports rose 2.7% month-over-month (consensus 4.0%; prior 4.5%) and imports increased 5.6% (expected 4.3%; last 6.3%)
Japan's Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6% year-over-year, as expected (prior 3.5%)
Singapore's GDP rose 3.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 1.4%; last 1.2%) while the year-over-year reading increased 2.8% (consensus 2.5%; previous 2.4%)
New Zealand's Inflation Expectations ticked down to 2.1% from 2.2%

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Japan's Nikkei gained 0.3% as traders returned to work following Labor Thanksgiving Day. Sony Corp surged 6.1% to its best levels since April 2011 after announcing it would stop making smartphones for China.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng slipped 0.2% amid a quiet trade. Energy led to the downside as PetroChina and Sinopec fell 2.5% and 2.3%, respectively.
China's Shanghai Composite climbed 1.4% to fresh 38-month highs. Real estate developers and automakers provided support as Poly Real Estate added 1.4% and SAIC Motor advanced 2.8%.
India's Sensex slipped 0.6% off all-time highs. ITC tumbled 5.2% following word the country was considering a ban on the sale of loose cigarettes.

Major European indices trade higher across the board with Spain's IBEX (+1.4%) pacing the advance. The European Finance Minister meeting regarding 2015 budgets has been postponed once again. The meeting was originally scheduled for November 21 and was expected to take place on December 1 prior to the news of a second delay.

Economic data was limited:
Germany's Q3 GDP was left unrevised at 0.1% quarter-over-quarter while the year-over-year also held at 1.2%
Great Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 37,100 (expected 38,500; prior 39,100)
French Business Survey ticked up to 99 from 98 (expected 97) o Spain's PPI slipped 0.2% year-over-year (expected -0.1%; last -0.3%)
Italy's Retail Sales ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%; previous -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading fell 0.5% (last -3.0%)

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Great Britain's FTSE is higher by 0.2% with media names in the lead. ITV, Sky, and Reed Elsevier are up between 1.7% and 2.4%. Miners lag with Anglo American and BHP Billiton down 2.5% and 1.9%, respectively.
In France, the CAC has advanced 0.6%. Financials outperform for the second day in a row with BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale up between 2.4% and 3.6%.
Germany's DAX trades up 1.2% amid broad strength. Utilities lead with E.On and RWE both up near 3.7%. Infineon Technologies is the weakest performer, down 0.5%.
Spain's IBEX is higher by 1.3% with bank shares contributing to the strength. Banco Sabadell, Banco Popular, and Caixabank hold gains between 2.1% and 3.0%.

8:31 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.20. The S&P 500 futures trade four points above fair value.

The second estimate of third quarter GDP pointed to an expansion of 3.9%, up from the 3.5% increase observed in the preliminary reading. The upwardly revised increase is higher than the 3.2% growth that economists polled by Briefing.com had expected. The fourth quarter GDP Deflator was revised up to 1.4% from 1.3%.

7:56 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.70. U.S. equity futures trade modestly higher amid upbeat action overseas. The S&P 500 futures hover two points above fair value. Once again, the overnight session was quiet with news limited to Germany's second reading of Q3 GDP, which came in at +0.1%, confirming the engine of the Eurozone narrowly avoided falling into recession. Also of note, yields across the eurozone have slipped to record lows.

Domestically, investors received a modest batch of earnings and a few economic reports will be released over the course of the morning. The second estimate of Q3 GDP (Briefing.com consensus 3.2%) will be reported at 8:30 ET while September Case-Shiller 20-city Index (consensus 4.6%) and FHFA Housing Price Index will both be released at 9:00 ET. The data will be topped off with the 10:00 ET release of the Consumer Confidence report for November (expected 96.0).

Treasuries are modestly higher with the 10-yr yield down almost two basis points at 2.29%.

In U.S. corporate news of note:

DSW (DSW 36.10, +2.45): +7.3% in reaction to better than expected results.
Palo Alto Networks (PANW 114.20, +0.94): +0.8% after beating estimates and guiding Q2 revenue above consensus.
Signet Jewelers (SIG 122.35, -0.64): -0.5% despite beating bottom-line estimates.
Tiffany & Co (TIF 104.25, -0.76): -0.7% after reporting a one-cent miss and reaffirming its guidance.
Workday (WDAY 85.05, -7.44): -8.0% despite beating earnings and revenue estimates.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Asian markets ended mixed. China's Shanghai Composite +1.4%, Japan's Nikkei +0.3%, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng -0.2%
In economic data:
Hong Kong's trade deficit narrowed to HKD49.80 billion from HKD50.40 billion (expected deficit of HKD45.30 billion) as exports rose 2.7% month-over-month (consensus 4.0%; prior 4.5%) and imports increased 5.6% (expected 4.3%; last 6.3%)
Japan's Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.6% year-over-year, as expected (prior 3.5%)
Singapore's GDP rose 3.1% quarter-over-quarter (expected 1.4%; last 1.2%) while the year-over-year reading increased 2.8% (consensus 2.5%; previous 2.4%)
New Zealand's Inflation Expectations ticked down to 2.1% from 2.2%
In news:
The Bank of Japan released the minutes from its latest meeting, which revealed concerns about potential side effects from the easing decision among several policymakers

Major European indices trade higher across the board. Great Britain's FTSE +0.2%, France's CAC +0.7%, and Germany's DAX +1.1%. Elsewhere, Italy's MIB +1.1% and Spain's IBEX +1.2%
Economic data was limited:
Germany's Q3 GDP was left unrevised at 0.1% quarter-over-quarter while the year-over-year also held at 1.2%
Great Britain's BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 37,100 (expected 38,500; prior 39,100)
French Business Survey ticked up to 99 from 98 (expected 97)
Spain's PPI slipped 0.2% year-over-year (expected -0.1%; last -0.3%)
Italy's Retail Sales ticked down 0.1% month-over-month (consensus 0.2%; previous -0.2%) while the year-over-year reading fell 0.5% (last -3.0%)
Among news of note:
The European Finance Minister meeting regarding 2015 budgets has been postponed once again. The meeting was originally scheduled for November 21 and was expected to take place on December 1 prior to the news of a second delay

6:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +5.00.

6:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] Nikkei...17,407.62...+50.10...+0.30%. Hang Seng...23,843.91...-49.20...-0.20%.

6:50 am: [BRIEFING.COM] FTSE...6,738.23...+8.80...+0.10%. DAX...9,883.87...+98.50...+1.00%.

U.S. Crude Tumbles to Four-Year Low Before OPEC Meeting

By Moming Zhou Nov 25, 2014 5:04 PM ET

West Texas Intermediate crude fell to the lowest level in more than four years after nations supplying a third of the world’s oil failed to pledge output cuts before this week’s OPEC meeting.

Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Russia said they plan to start quarterly monitoring of oil prices. Today’s talks in Vienna didn’t result in any joint commitment to reduce supplies, said Igor Sechin, who runs Russian state oil producer OAO Rosneft.

“Even those four countries are not agreeing to any kind of cut, and the last thing the Saudis want is to be the ones doing all the cutting,” said Tariq Zahir, a New York-based commodity fund manager at Tyche Capital Advisors. “You have to get an above 2-million-barrel cut from OPEC to stabilize the market.”

WTI for January delivery fell $1.69, or 2.2 percent, to $74.09 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest settlement since September 2010. The volume of all futures was 21 percent below the 100-day average.

Prices were little changed after the American Petroleum Institute released its inventory data. The API reported that U.S. crude supply grew by 2.8 million barrels last week, ForexLive said on Twitter.

Brent for January settlement lost $1.35, or 1.7 percent, to $78.33 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Volume was 1.4 percent below the 100-day average. Brent’s premium to WTI was $4.24.

Bear Market

Crude prices plunged into a bear market this year amid the highest U.S. oil production in more than three decades and signs of slower demand growth. Speculation that OPEC’s leading producers were more interested in preserving market share than propping up prices contributed to the rout.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, will meet in two days in Vienna to assess its collective output. The 20 analysts surveyed last week by Bloomberg were divided, with half predicting a cut and the rest no action.

“It’s certainly possible that if there is absolutely nothing that comes out of OPEC, you are going to see the downward trend resume, probably getting to $60 at least,” said Bill O’Grady, chief market strategist at Confluence Investment Management in St. Louis, which oversees $2.4 billion. “No one knows what OPEC is going to do.”

Russia, which isn’t a member of OPEC, wouldn’t need to cut production if oil fell to $60 a barrel, according to Sechin.

“Russia is basically saying that we are going to continue to pump oil no matter how low the price is,” said Zahir. “They are throwing some fuel on the fire.”

Cut Inevitable

OPEC produced 30.97 million barrels a day in October, exceeding its 30 million target for a fifth month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

A coordinated output cut by OPEC is inevitable, Deutsche Bank AG said in a report earlier today.

“An examination of oil market fundamentals suggests that a coordinated cut in OPEC production is inevitable,” the bank said in an e-mailed report. Brent may move back to $87 a barrel early next year if OPEC announces a “credible reduction,” the bank said.

The group is unlikely to make a reduction large enough to remove market oversupply, Citigroup Inc. said.

“Absent a convincing cut, Citi expects oil prices to resume their slide,” analysts including Seth Kleinman said in a report.

Iraq Exemption

OPEC is considering exemptions for three nations from any potential oil-production cuts, according to two people with knowledge of the proposal said. Iraq, Iran and Libya wouldn’t have to reduce supplies should the group agree to cut output.

U.S. oil futures rallied earlier after U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 3.9 percent annualized rate last quarter, up from an initial estimate of 3.5 percent.

“The GDP number came in strong and it’s feeding into the expectation that oil demand in the U.S. will rise,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at the Price Futures Group in Chicago. “OPEC is over-producing and needs to make a significant cut.”

U.S. crude inventories rose 500,000 barrels last week, a Bloomberg survey showed before the Energy Information Administration’s report tomorrow. The refinery utilization rate increased to 91.5 percent, the survey showed.

To contact the reporter on this story: Moming Zhou in New York at mzhou29@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Marino at dmarino4@bloomberg.net Charlotte Porter

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney, Reuters and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader @ http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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