TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +27.00 points or $2700 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1064.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.





Market Update

4:30 pm : Set against an already bearish backdrop, market participants reacted negatively to the Fed's decision to increase capital controls for banks and underwhelming data from both home and abroad. That left stocks to record their sixth straight loss and settle at new monthly lows.

The stock market's slide was extended to a sixth straight session, including an incremental loss late last week. In that time the S&P 500 has fallen more than 7%. In the face of the swoon, Deere & Co. (DE 74.72, +2.80) displayed strength, thanks to an upside earnings surprise and an optimistic outlook.

Broad market participants saw little reason to alter their bearish mindset when it was learned last evening that the Fed ruled that top-tier domestic banks with total consolidated assets of at least $50 billion must submit annual capital plans for review, bringing the number of banks under surveillance to 31. The decision comes at the same time that many investors have shown aversion to bank stocks and other financial issues for fear of their exposure to the precarious conditions in Europe.

The perception of Europe was hardly helped by news that Germany, the continent's strongest and most diverse economy, held a debt auction that drew disappointing demand. Germany also reported that its PMI Manufacturing reading for November fell to 47.9 from 49.1 in the prior month. The November Manufacturing PMI for the broader eurozone eased to 46.4 from 46.5 in October.

China also issued disappointing data. The country's Flash PMI Manufacturing reading for November fell to 48.0 from 51.0 in the prior month. Asia's major averages all moved lower in overnight action.

As for domestic data, initial jobless claims for the week ended November 19 totaled 393,000, which is barely changed from what was posted in the prior week. It is also on par with what had been expected by many economists.

Personal spending during October increased by 0.1%, which is less than the 0.3% increase that had been broadly expected, but personal income increased by 0.4% to exceed the 0.3% increase that had been anticipated.

Durable goods orders for October fell 0.7%, but that is still less than the 0.9% decline that many had expected. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders actually jumped by 0.7% in the face of the consensus call for no change.

Although still short of 1 billion shares, trading volume on the NYSE proved greater than what many had suspected ahead of a holiday. U.S. markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of Thanksgiving. They will re-open Friday for a half day of trade.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples -1.4%, Utilities -1.5%, Health Care -1.5%, Consumer Discretionary -2.1%, Telecom -2.1%, Industrials -2.3%, Tech -2.4%, Materials -2.8%, Energy -2.9%, Financials -2.9%DJ30 -236.17 NASDAQ -61.20 NQ100 -2.3% R2K -3.2% SP400 -2.7% SP500 -26.25 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 382/1.71 bln/2165 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 358/876 mln/2692

3:30 pm : Efforts to pare risk prompted market participants to extend their efforts into the commodity complex. Selling pressure dropped the CRB Commodity Index for a 1.4% loss.

News of a surprise inventory draw failed to improve sentiment surrounding oil trade today. That left the energy crude oil prices to fall 1.9% to $96.15 per barrel. Natural gas prices also succumbed to selling pressure. The energy component closed at $3.61 per MMbtu, which was comfortably above its session low, but it still made for a 1.4% loss. Inventory numbers for natural gas also proved surprisingly positive.

Precious metals were able to trim losses after falling sharply in morning trade. Gold prices settled at $1696.80 per ounce for a 0.3% loss. Silver settled with a 2.8% loss at $32.02 per ounce. DJ30 -178.84 NASDAQ -47.65 SP500 -19.76 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 410/1.35 bln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 395/555 mln/2655

3:00 pm : The S&P 500 has spent the past five hours trading in a seven-point range. While that may be a ordinarily be a fairly wide range, it is actually quite narrow in the context of today's sharp drop.

Stocks enter the final hour near the low end of their daily trading range. The pessimistic posture comes in response to precarious fiscal and financial conditions across the globe, as well as macro headwinds, all of which have been hanging over stocks for some time. DJ30 -192.08 NASDAQ -50.68 SP500 -21.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 395/1.17 bln/2105 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 370/480 mln/2670

2:30 pm : Although the action this afternoon has generally kept stocks confined to a narrow trading range, the market has moved down to the lower end of that span in recent trade. The slip by stocks toward session lows coincides with increased buying in the dollar, which is now at a session high with a 1.2% gain against competing currencies. Most of the dollar's advance is owed to a weaker euro, which is down 1.4% to $1.333.DJ30 -205.51 NASDAQ -54.77 SP500 -23.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 390/1.05 bln/2100 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 370/430 mln/2650

2:00 pm : Stocks remain caught in a sideways drift that is running only modestly above session lows. The steady action has made for rather dull theater this afternoon. That said, the story over the past several sessions is much more interesting in that stocks are now on pace for their sixth straight loss. During that time the stock market has surrendered more than 7%.DJ30 -197.76 NASDAQ -50.33 SP500 -21.22 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 415/965 mln/2070 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 375/395 mln/2635

1:30 pm : Treasuries continue to hug the neutral line, even after the latest auction of 7-year Notes drew strong dollar demand. The auction finished with a bid-to-cover of 3.20, dollar demand of $92.8 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 39.9%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.59, dollar demand of $75.1 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 33.9%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.81, dollar demand of $81.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 41.1%.DJ30 -154.20 NASDAQ -41.39 SP500 -17.14 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 385/895 mln/2085 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 375/360 mln/2625

1:00 pm : Widespread weakness has taken the broad market down to its lowest level in more than a month. The descent comes as market participants, already bearish from recent market action, react to more weakness abroad, further capital controls for domestic banks, and an underwhelming dose of data.

A weak debt offering from Germany along with disappointing data from Europe and China made for a dour backdrop this morning. That only supported the pessimistic posture displayed by market participants in recent sessions.

Uncertainty about the exposure of banks to the precarious conditions in Europe has been hanging over the sector for some time. Concern about their ability to absorb possible losses has hardly been quelled by the Fed's final rule requiring top-tier domestic banks with total consolidated assets of $50 billion of more to submit annual capital plans for review. The number of banks under surveillance now stands at 31, all of which will undergo stress tests in 2012.

As for data, initial jobless claims for the week ended November 19 totaled 393,000, which is barely changed from what was posted in the prior week. It is also on par with what had been expected by many economists.

Personal spending during October increased by 0.1%, which is less than the 0.3% increase that had been broadly expected, but personal income increased by 0.4% to exceed the 0.3% increase that had been anticipated.

Durable goods orders for October fell 0.7%, but that is still less than the 0.9% decline that many had expected. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders actually jumped by 0.7% in the face of the consensus call for no change.

The revised November reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan came in at 64.1 after a reading of 64.2 in the preliminary post earlier this month. DJ30 -165.52 NASDAQ -43.69 SP500 -18.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 345/822 mln/2110 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 340/325 mln/2655

12:30 pm : Stocks continue to crawl along their session lows. There isn't a single sector that has limited its loss to 1%.

Banks and natural resource plays are generally under the most pressure today. As such, the financial sector, energy sector, and materials sector are all down 2.3%. Consumer staples stocks have managed to limit their collective losses to only half of that. The sector's relative strength stems from its defensive nature. DJ30 -193.78 NASDAQ -49.33 SP500 -20.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 375/745 mln/2065 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 325/295 mln/2645

12:00 pm : Stocks are drifting along their lows for the day. The broad market hasn't probed such deep depths since mid-October.

Despite such an ominous scenario, traditional safety plays like Treasuries and gold aren't garnering much buying interest. That has left the benchmark 10-year Note to dance along the neutral line. Meanwhile, gold prices are down 0.8% to $1689 per ounce.

However, the dollar is looking strong today. It currently boasts a 1.1% gain against a basket of major foreign currencies. The greenback is flat for the year, though. DJ30 -190.26 NASDAQ -49.64 SP500 -20.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 345/660 mln/2075 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 300/260 mln/2665

11:30 am : Stocks recently resumed their descent after stabilizing for a few minutes. The action has made for new session lows.

With stocks stuck in such negative price action, the S&P 500 is on pace for its sixth straight loss. During that time the broad market measure has shed more than 7%. That has left the stock market to trade at its lowest level in more than a month.

The downward drift has been driven primarily by debt concerns in Europe, but more recently market participants have been concerned about domestic conditions. In the face of such sluggishness at home, the Fed recently increased its capital requirements on banks. The onus stemming from that decision, combined with concerns about exposure to Europe and broad market weakness, has dropped the KBW Bank Index for a loss of almost 3% today. DJ30 -205.70 NASDAQ -52.29 SP500 -23.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 335/530 mln/2045 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 275/210 mln/2655

11:00 am : Stocks have stabilized in recent trade, but overall bias remains decidedly weak with declining volume outpacing advancing volume by nearly 10-to-1 on the NYSE.

Despite a substantial dose of data this morning and concerted efforts on the part of participants to pare risk, overall share volume could be dampened by tomorrow's holiday since many traders will be likely opt for an early start to Thanksgiving. A half day of trade on Friday is also hardly enough reason to keep trading desks fully staffed. DJ30 -155 NASDAQ -42.88 SP500 -18.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 310/395 mln/2010 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 250/160 mln/2620

10:35 am : Weak sentiment among market participants has left commodities to slide in conjunction with stocks.

Oil has been a particularly heavy drag on the commodity complex. The energy component was last quoted at $95.95 per barrel, which makes for a 2.1% loss. Weekly oil inventory numbers showed a draw of 6.22 million barrels when a build of 1.4 million barrels had been expected.

Natural gas inventory numbers are due at noon ET. Natural gas prices are down 1.6% to $3.51 per MMBtu ahead of that report.

Precious metals are also under sharp pressure. As such, gold prices are down 1.0% to $1685 per ounce, while silver prices trade at $31.55 per ounce for a 4.2% loss. DJ30 -175.92 NASDAQ -51.30 SP500 -21.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 325/290 mln/1935 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 250/130 mln/2575

10:00 am : The revised November reading on Consumer Sentiment from the University of Michigan was released a few minutes ago. Hardly changed, it came in at 64.1 after a reading of 64.2 in the preliminary post earlier this month.

Stocks didn't really react to the consumer sentiment reading when it was released, but they have moved another leg lower in more recent trade. All three major averages are now at session lows, facing sizable losses. DJ30 -148.71 NASDAQ -37.59 SP500 -18.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 385/102 mln/1715 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 285/58 mln/2410

09:45 am : A slide at the open has the S&P 500 at its lowest level since mid-October and on pace for its sixth straight loss. Weakness is widespread with all 10 major sectors in the red with marked losses.

Despite the weakness displayed by equities, Treasuries aren't attracting any buying interest. That has left the benchmark 10-year Note to decline by almost a dozen ticks.

The greenback has garnered support, however. It was last quoted with a 0.7% gain against a collection of competing currencies. DJ30 -131.00 NASDAQ -27.69 SP500 -14.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.50. Sentiment among market participants remains weak. As such, stock futures suggest that the broad market will open with a marked loss that takes it to a new monthly low. The extension of the stock market's downtrend comes amid ongoing concerns related to debt dealings in Europe, but also because new capital controls for domestic banks have been issued. Data from Europe and Asia have also been underwhelming. Domestic data hasn't done anything to inspire. In the wake of a surprise downward revision to third quarter GDP yesterday, participants have been dealt an in-line initial jobless claims report, mixed durable goods orders data, and a mixed reading on personal income and spending. Amid such significant macro concerns, earnings and corporate news continue to be placed on the back burner.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.00. Stock futures remain under pressure. The weak sentiment has imbued the commodity complex, taking down the CRB Commodity Index to a 1.0% loss. Among its most closely tracked components, oil prices are down 1.8% to $96.25 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. Weekly oil inventory numbers are due at 11:00 AM ET.

Elsewhere in the energy complex, natural gas prices have been pushed down to $3.50 per MMBtu for a 1.8% loss. Weekly natural gas inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET.

Precious metals are also under pressure after trading sharply higher in the prior session. Specifically, gold prices are down 0.6% to $1692 per ounce. Meanwhile, silver is down deeply to $31.58 per ounce for a 4.2% loss.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -11.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -14.50. A large dose of data was released just minutes ago. Stock futures have made modest ticks higher in the wake of its release.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended November 19 totaled 393,000, which is just 2,000 claims greater than both what had been expected by many economists and what had been logged last week.

Personal spending during October increased by 0.1%, which is less than the 0.3% increase that had been broadly expected. Personal income increased by 0.4%, which exceeds the 0.3% increase that had been anticipated, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

Durable goods orders for October were also just released. They extended the prior month's downwardly revised 1.5% drop by falling 0.7%, but that is still less than the 0.9% decline that many had expected. Excluding transportation related items, durable goods orders actually jumped by 0.7% when no change had been expected. Durable orders less transportation for the prior month were revised lower to reflect a 0.6% increase.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.80. Weakness ahead of the open suggests that stocks will start trade today on course for another loss. The broad market has already shed more than 5% in the past five sessions.

Concerns about the precarious debt situation in Europe continue to hang over the heads of traders. Uninspiring data in recent sessions hasn't been helpful to market sentiment either. That said, a bevy of reports is due at the bottom of the hour. It features the latest in durable goods orders, personal spending, and weekly initial jobless claims. A revised reading on consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan will be posted at 9:55 AM ET. Also on the docket, weekly oil inventory numbers are due at 10:30 AM ET, followed by weekly natural gas inventories at noon ET. Results from an auction of 7-year Notes will be released at 1:00 PM ET.

Even amid all of the data, participation will likely be poor with U.S. markets closed tomorrow in observance of Thanksgiving and open for only a half day of trade on Friday.

06:48 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -9.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30.

06:48 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...17864.43...-387.20...-2.10%.

06:48 am : FTSE...5449.40...+1.70...0.00. DAX...5552.63...+15.20...+0.30%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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