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 Post subject: November 22nd Tuesday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +20.30
PostPosted: Wed Nov 23, 2011 2:38 am 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +20.30 points or $2030 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1063.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall, GDP Data Overshadows Bets on Stimulus

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks fell, driving the Standard & Poor's 500 Index to its longest slump in almost four months, as slower-than-estimated economic growth overshadowed signs the Federal Reserve may provide more stimulus.

Stocks Slip On Worries Over Growth and Europe

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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- Stocks ended in the red Tuesday, amid worries about U.S. economic growth.

But losses were trimmed after the International Monetary Fund unveiled an enhanced lending program to help countries struggling with short-term liquidity problems from Europe's debt crisis.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) ended down 54 points, or 0.5%. The S&P 500 (SPX) slipped 5 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 2 points, or 0.1% Earlier, all three indexes were down about 1%.

The turnaround came after the IMF announced that it is revamping its lending facility to better serve "crisis-bystanders," the countries with strong economic policies and fundamentals that are struggling with urgent financing needs during periods of "heightened economic or market stress."

The intergovernmental agency said that its program could be used "as insurance against future shocks" and help "break the chains of contagion."

Though the major indexes bounced off their lows following the news, they remained stuck in negative territory as investors weighed the effectiveness of the IMF's new credit line.

"It's more stimulus, but it doesn't seem that it's going to be enough," said Joseph Saluzzi, co-head of equity trading at Themis Trading. "This is certainly not the bazooka that will end all bailout talks, but it's a step in the right direction."

Meanwhile, investors remained on edge following a downbeat reading on U.S. economic growth.

* Eurobonds: The 'solution' that just won't stick

Investors were disappointed by a weaker reading of economic growth in the third quarter, as it "reinforced concerns about the strength in the global recovery," said Kathy Lien, director of currency research at Global Forex Trading.

The ongoing rise in bond yields in Italy and Spain didn't help either.

"European bond holders are very likely to continue pressing for some reason to hold Spanish and Italian bonds," wrote analysts at Wells Fargo Advisors in a research note.

While recent leadership changes in Europe are steps in the right direction for the long term, they do "little to reassure investors that there is a backstop to these bond markets," the analysts wrote.

Market confidence will remain shaky until investors "know who will be Europe's lender of last resort, the ultimate guarantor of European debt," they added.

* Spanish bonds signal tough road ahead

Tuesday's move lower came after stocks capped off a brutal day on Wall Street Monday, ending down about 2%, as investors reacted to the congressional super committee's failure to reach a budget deficit deal.

Congress' super committee, which had been given extra powers to tackle the country's seemingly intractable debt problems, said Monday that it could not agree on $1.2 trillion in budget reductions.

There was some relief Tuesday after major ratings agencies reaffirmed the U.S. credit rating.

With no default or downgrade threat looming, the market impact of the super committee's letdown is likely to be "muted" relative to the summer's debt ceiling debacle, said Jeff Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial.

Still, the collapse of budget talks could have longer-term ramifications, said Sebastian Galy, a senior currency strategist at Societe Generale, in a research note.

* Debt committee failure: Red flag for investors

"The super committee's failure didn't stress the rating agencies, but if payroll tax cuts can't be extended -- the risk of recession in 2012 goes up materially," Galy said. "And the 'better than expected' economic data we have been seeing becomes far less relevant, as we all peer through fog at the bleak outlook for 2012. And that makes the S&P look vulnerable or at least, well capped."

Economy: The economy grew at a 2% annual rate in the third quarter -- a half-percentage point slower than originally reported, according to the government's second estimate of third-quarter GDP growth released Tuesday.

Analysts surveyed by Briefing.com expected the estimate would remain unchanged -- an annualized increase of 2.5%.

Investors welcomed signs that the Federal Reserve is at least debating whether or not it should further ease monetary policy in the future.

While members of the central bank's monetary policy committee "generally preferred to retain the existing" measures, "a few members indicated that they believed the economic outlook might warrant additional policy accommodation," according the the Fed's minutes from its November meeting.

Still, the Fed is not willing to use all the arrows in quiver just yet, said Mark Lamkin, chief investment strategist at Lamkin Wealth Management, adding that the minutes prove that "the Fed is still in a wait-and-see mode."

World markets: European stocks closed lower. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) slipped 0.1%, while the DAX (DAX) in Germany slumped 1.1% and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) lost 0.4%.

Asian markets ended little changed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) edged down 0.1%, the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong ticked up 0.1% and Japan's Nikkei (N225) slid 0.4%.

Companies: Shares of Netflix (NFLX) slumped after the video-streaming subscription service announced that it expects to be unprofitable in 2012. Netflix also said that it will sell $400 million in common stock and convertible notes.

* Netflix will lose money for all of 2012

Fusion-io (FIO), which first debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in June, said it will price its follow-on public offering of 8.84 million in common stock at $33 per share. Shares of the company fell.

Shares of Gilead Sciences (GILD, Fortune 500) jumped after the HIV drugmaker announced it is buying Pharmasset (VRUS) for $11 billion.

Campbell's Soup (CPB, Fortune 500) stock dropped after the company's fiscal fourth quarter profit tumbled 5%, as price increases failed to offset lower volumes.

* Should you move out of the dollar?

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the euro, and the Japanese yen, but rose versus the British pound.

Oil for January delivery gained $1.09 to settle at $98.01 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery rose $23.80 to settle at $1,702.40 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose slightly, pushing the yield down to 1.94% from 1.96% late Monday.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : Debt and macro concerns continue to underpin pessimism among market participants, prompting many to pare risk. As such, the broad market logged its fourth straight loss.

Sentiment among early traders turned sour with the release of the second estimate of third quarter GDP, which expanded at a clip of just 2.0%. In general, economists had thought that the headline number would go unrevised at a 2.5% growth rate. The downward revision made it less surprising to learn from the latest FOMC minutes that some Committee members believe that the outlook should be eased further.

Uncertainty about the progress of eurozone bailout plans also continues to hang over financial markets. However, headlines that the IMF has established a new liquidity line helped stocks extend a rebound that began when stocks successfully held their ground at the prior session's low, which also marked a monthly low.

Even though the rebound effort took the major equity averages into positive territory, their stay there was brief. The eventual evaporation of buying interest left stocks to drift lower into the close, culminating in another down day for the major averages. Including an incremental loss late last week, the S&P 500 has finished lower in four straight sessions for a cumulative loss of more than 5%.

Advancing Sectors: Health Care +0.2%, Consumer Staples +0.1%
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary -0.1%, Tech -0.2%, Telecom -0.4%, Industrials -0.8%, Materials -0.8%, Financials -0.9%, Energy -1.0%, Utilities -1.3%DJ30 -53.59 NASDAQ -1.86 NQ100 +0.2% R2K -0.8% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -4.94 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 896/1.79 bln/1595 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1160/876 mln/1862

3:30 pm : Aside from a modest pullback in late morning trade, precious metals remained strong throughout the session. Gold ended higher by 1.4% at $1702.40 per ounce, while silver posted gains of 5.1% to close at $32.81. Both metals traded to their best levels, at $1706.40 and $33.04, respectively, into the close of pit trade.

Crude oil prices pulled back to the flat line in mid-morning trade, pressured by weakness in equities. Their about-face followed headlines about enhanced IMF Liquidity and Emergency Lending Windows. They did attempt to rebound, but the move stalled around the $98.50 mark, leaving prices to drift lower and close at $98.01 per barrel. Still, that made for a 1.1% gain. Natural gas prices settled higher by 0.5% at $3.42 per MMBtu. DJ30 -45.79 NASDAQ +0.11 SP500 -3.97 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 965/1.41 bln/1510 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1150/555 mln/1850

3:00 pm : Participants are pressuring stocks. The effort has been gradual, but it has put the broad market at a new afternoon low.

Only an hour remains in today's trade, but only a half billion shares have exchanged hands on the NYSE thus far. The drop in participation comes as many traders opt for a head start to the Thanksgiving holiday. U.S. markets will be closed Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving, but will re-open for a half day of trade on Friday. DJ30 -60.17 NASDAQ -2.66 SP500 -5.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1110/1.30 bln/1355 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/510 mln/1650

2:30 pm : The major equity averages are muddling along in mixed fashion following a recent slip.

The lackluster action this afternoon comes in the absence of leadership. Financials, which frequently dictate the direction of trade because of their sensitivity to macro trends and global financial conditions, are down 0.5% today. Meanwhile, tech stocks, which make up the largest sector by market weight, are mired near the neutral line. DJ30 -39.36 NASDAQ +1.68 SP500 -2.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1115/1.20 bln/1315 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1385/460 mln/1580

2:00 pm : Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting were scheduled to be released at 2:00 PM ET, but instead they were leaked a short time ago. According to preliminary reports, some members believe that the outlook may warrant more easing. Stocks didn't have much of a reaction to the mention of that possibility, most likely because it would hardly be a surprise to participants, but the major averages have seen some increased selling pressure in more recent trade.DJ30 -31.33 NASDAQ +1.88 SP500 -1.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1290/1.11 bln/1120 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1680/425 mln/1270

1:30 pm : Results from an auction of 5-year Notes were released at 1:00 PM ET. Treasuries have ticked higher in the wake of the offering.

The auction drew a bid-to-cover ratio of 3.15, dollar demand of $110.3 billion, and an indirect bidder participation rate of 45.3%. For comparison, the prior auction drew a bid-to-cover of 2.90, dollar demand of $101.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 49.3%. An average of the past six auctions results in a bid-to-cover of 2.84, dollar demand of $99.5 billion, and an indirect bidder rate of 43.3%. DJ30 +1.21 NASDAQ +7.38 SP500 +1.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1185/1.03 bln/1240 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/390 mln/1465

1:00 pm : Stocks overcame disappointment over a downward revision to third quarter GDP to squeeze higher in the opening minutes of trade, but a loss of momentum left the major averages to roll over. Support at the prior session's lows and a headline that the IMF has established a new liquidity line have helped drive a rebound. The major averages are still stuck near the neutral line, however.

Leadership remains lacking. Consumer staples stocks, up 0.6%, are in the best shape overall. Utilities stocks, also defensive in nature, are at the opposite end of the spectrum with a 0.6% loss.

Corporate news flow has been sluggish in recent sessions, but Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 26.09, -0.77) recently released its latest quarterly results. The company's bottom line bested what Wall Street had expected, but that has been shrugged off because of downside guidance. The stock has been left to wrestle with aggressive selling pressure as a result.

Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will be posted at 2:00 PM ET. Participants will be looking for new clues about the mindset of the policy setting committee amid stubbornly weak macro conditions and precarious fiscal and financial conditions in Europe. DJ30 -7.91 NASDAQ +2.16 SP500 +0.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/950 mln/1385 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/355 mln/1670

12:30 pm : All three major equity averages recently rallied off of session lows, but each was rebuffed when it came in contact with its neutral line. The move began as stocks successfully held their ground at prior session lows, but gained momentum in response to recent headlines regarding efforts by the IMF to create a new liquidity line intended to help cut chances of contagion.DJ30 -47.15 NASDAQ -8.41 SP500 -4.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1010/855 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1255/315 mln/1640

12:00 pm : After pausing at the prior session's low, which was also the stock market's monthly low, stocks have started to rebound. However, overall losses remain sizable and there still isn't a single sector in positive territory.

Amid persistent pressure, shares of Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 25.94, -0.92) continue to contend with a loss in excess of 3%. The stock's weakness comes as market participants look past an upside earnings surprise to focus on the company's downside forecast. DJ30 -81.25 NASDAQ -13.40 SP500 -7.68 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 740/725 mln/1600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 830/265 mln/2060

11:30 am : Stocks have stabilized since rolling over. The pause comes as the S&P 500 comes in contact with the intraday low that it set during the sell-off in the prior session. The action has many market participants on edge, waiting to see whether or not stocks will hold the line or break down for another leg of losses.DJ30 -93.92 NASDAQ -17.34 SP500 -9.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 825/620 mln/1480 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 995/215 mln/1865

11:00 am : Stocks wavered after failing to attract additional buying interest shortly after the open. Pressure has since intensified to take stocks lower for marked losses.

Recent selling interest has been broad. In turn, all 10 major sectors are in the red. Losses are steepest among energy issues, which are down 1.0%, collectively. Still, materials stocks have suffered the sharpest reversal. The sector had been up solidly this morning, about 0.6% at its session high, but it has since rolled over to trade with a 0.8% loss. DJ30 -67.32 NASDAQ -15.10 SP500 -7.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 875/480 mln/1385 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1075/170 mln/1740

10:30 am : The CRB Commodity Index is now up 0.8%, which makes for a new session high.

Oil prices have ticked up to $98.60 per barrel, which makes for a 1.8% gain, but remain about a dime shy of their session high. However, natural gas prices have come under pressure after a positive start. In turn, natural gas prices are now down 0.3% to $3.55 per MMBtu.

Building on early strength, precious metals are performing very well. Gold prices are now up 1.5% to $1704 per ounce for a fresh session high. Meanwhile, silver is sporting a 4.3% gain at $32.44 per ounce. DJ30 -21.80 NASDAQ -1.08 SP500 -1.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/305 mln/1055 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/115 mln/1390

10:00 am : Stocks were recently squeezed higher, but the move has neither generated the momentum nor attracted enough new money to continue its climb. Without the backing of buyers, stocks are now drifting lower.

Materials plays are holding steady in positive territory, though. The sector is sporting a 0.4% gain with help from basic materials and commodities prices, which have been bid higher to give the CRB Commodity Index a 0.7% gain. DJ30 -17.71 NASDAQ +4.59 SP500 +0.69 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/110 mln/820 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/55 mln/1110

09:45 am : Stocks slipped at the open, but are now being squeezed higher. The move has put both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq in positive territory, but the Dow has paused near the neutral line.

There still isn't any single source of leadership for the broad market to rally behind and follow higher. That said, financials have managed to muster a 0.4% gain, making it a top performing sector in early trade. DJ30 +1.06 NASDAQ +9.14 SP500 +2.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.00. Stock futures had been higher in early pre-market trade, but bargain hunting efforts on the back of yesterday's sell-off eventually tapered off. Bias was further weakened with the release of the second reading on third quarter GDP, which was downwardly revised to the surprise of many economists. With participants inclined to pare risk, stocks look like they are headed for a lower open, although it doesn't yet look like the broad market will test the monthly lows that it set in the prior session.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.30. Many commodities were caught up in the prior session sell-off, but the asset class is putting on an improved performance this morning. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.4%. Oil prices, in particular, are up 0.9% to $97.75 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Natural gas prices are up 0.6% to $3.58 per MMBtu. As for precious metals, gold prices are up 0.8% to $1691 per ounce, while silver sports a 1.8% gain at $31.69 per ounce. In contrast to the action surrounding commodities, stock futures continue to encounter pressure ahead of the open.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -10.80. Stock futures have slipped in response to the second estimate of third quarter GDP. It indicates that economic output in the third quarter expanded at a clip of just 2.0%, which is down from the 2.5% growth rate that was posted in the preliminary report. Economists, on average, had expected no change to the preliminary headline number. However, the third quarter GDP Deflator went unrevised so that it continues to show an increase of 2.5%, as had been expected.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.00. An aggressive sell-off in the prior session took stocks to their lowest level in more than a month, but overnight bargain hunting efforts have dissipated. That has left stock futures to trade flat ahead of the open. The flat action follows reports that U.S. officials failed to compromise on plans needed to get a grip on the fiscal deficit. Meanwhile, overseas action has been relatively underwhelming. A second look at third quarter GDP will come at the bottom of the hour. Results from an auction of 5-year Notes are due at 1:00 PM ET. Minutes from the most recent FOMC meeting will be posted at 2:00 PM ET.

06:41 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.30.

06:41 am : Nikkei...8314.74...-33.50...-0.40%. Hang Seng...18251.59...+25.70...+0.10%.

06:41 am : FTSE...5259.95...+37.40...+0.70%. DAX...5663.78...+57.80...+1.00%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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