TheStrategyLab.com Price Action Trading Support Forum

Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)


click on the above image to view today's performance verification

Trade Performance for Today: +11.00 points or $1100 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=1057.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=119&t=718.

Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=145&t=1269

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

U.S. Stocks Fall as Fitch Says Europe a Risk to Banks

Nov. 16 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Ellen Braitman reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks tumbled, erasing yesterday's gains, as Fitch Ratings said further contagion from Europe's debt crisis will pose a risk to American banks and amid concern higher oil prices will hamper economic growth.





Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks rolled over in the final hour of trade to logg sizable losses. The move lower coincided with a retreat by the euro.

The major equity averages opened trade today with marked losses, but stocks gradually worked their way up to the neutral line. The lack of leadership left stocks to lose momentum and drift back into negative territory.

Selling accelerated in the final hour, right around the time that the euro began its pullback from positive territory. The euro, generally a barometer of confidence in the eurozone, had been down against the greenback in morning trade, but eventually mustered a modest gain. That move proved unsustainable, though, as it forfeited its gain to trade with a 0.3% loss against the dollar by session's end.

Although it wasn't a revelation, analysts at Fitch reminded market participants about the risk of contagion by suggesting that domestic banks could be hurt if the fiscal and financial problems of Europe worsen. For now, though, the analysts have a stable outlook on the U.S. banking industry. In contrast, analysts at Moody's downgraded credit ratings on 10 banks in Germany, which is Europe's strongest, most diversified economy.

Financials had been relatively weak all session and, perhaps appropriately, suffered some of the steepest losses. The sector's 2.5% drop was driven by shares of large-cap diversified financial services players like Bank of America (BAC 5.90, -0.23), which set a new monthly low.

Even energy stocks were imbued by broad market weakness, despite a rally by oil prices to a multi-month high above $100 per barrel. The energy component closed pit trade more than 3% higher at almost $102.60 per barrel, but energy stocks, as a group, logged a 1.5% loss.

Tech stocks tried to offer support on a few occassions, but efforts were repeatedly checked by sellers, culminating in a 1.5% loss for the largest sector by market weight. Dell (DELL 15.25, -0.38) was a steady drag after its tepid guidance cast a pall over an upside earnings surprise.

For the second straight session data did little for traders. The economic calendar featured an October Consumer Price Index that slipped by 0.1%, which is not too different than the consensus call for no change. Core prices made a 0.1% increase, just as had been generally expected. Separately, industrial production increased in October by 0.7%. That exceeded the 0.4% increase that had been broadly expected.

Advancing Sectors: (None)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples -0.8%, Utilities -1.3%, Tech -1.5%, Energy -1.5%, Industrials -1.5%, Telecom -1.6%, Health Care -1.8%, Consumer Discretionary -1.9%, Materials -2.4%, Financials -2.5%DJ30 -190.57 NASDAQ -46.59 NQ100 -1.8% R2K -1.8% SP400 -1.4% SP500 -20.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 682/1.95 bln/1880 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 720/918 mln/2309

3:35 pm : Trade in crude oil was focused around news that Enbridge and Enterprise plan to change the direction of crude oil flows on the Seaway pipeline, pending regulatory approval, to enable it to transport oil from Cushing, Oklahoma to the U.S. Gulf Coast. While the reversal may not happen until the back half of 2012, the Dec contract rallied sharply today. Futures, which closed the WTI-Brent spread, put in highs at $102.46, their best levels since June 10. This morning’s inventory data was more-or-less a non-event as futures saw a very modest pullback before resuming their rally. Crude posted gains of 3.2% to close at $102.59 per barrel. Natural gas futures extended their recent sell-off after shedding 1.7% to close at $3.34 per MMBtu. Futures put in fresh +1 year lows at $3.33 and closed just above those lows.

Precious metals quietly bounced off of their respective lows, at $1753.90 and $33.57, in mid-morning trade. Gold, which posted losses of 0.4% at $1774.30, closed at levels seen in overnight trade. Silver, which settled lower by 1.8% to close at $33.82, gave back most of its bounce heading into afternoon trade.DJ30 -144.57 NASDAQ -33.98 SP500 -6.42 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 868/1.4 bln/1658 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 874/575.1 mln/2171

3:00 pm : Stocks have gone on the backslide with the arrival of the final hour. The major equity averages are still up comfortably from session lows, however.

Participation among investors has been paltry all week. In turn, share volume has been depressed. Today isn't any different, given that less than a half billion shares have traded hands so far on the NYSE and only 60 minutes of action remains. On average, daily share volume for the past 50 sessions has trended closer to 1 billion. DJ30 -43.32 NASDAQ -11.47 SP500 -5.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1315/1.23 bln/1200 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/465 mln/1430

2:30 pm : Stocks continue to chop along with narrow losses after failing to extend their push into positive territory. Meanwhile, Treasuries continue to hover along with slight gains.DJ30 -18.77 NASDAQ -5.52 SP500 -1.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/1.14 bln/1290 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1435/425 mln/1530

2:00 pm : The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 each poked into positive territory minutes ago, but none has managed to extend the move. Instead, the three headline averages remain mired near the neutral line.

Energy stocks have successfully added to their gains, though. The sector is now at a session high, sporting a 0.7% gain. The sector has been helped by oil's steady climb, which is now up to a new session high of $102.30 per barrel for a 3.0% gain. DJ30 -3.33 NASDAQ -2.64 SP500 -0.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/1.05 bln/1160 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1590/390 mln/1365

1:30 pm : The major equity averages are startng to climb, but they aren't yet at the neutral line.

Energy stocks are showing leadership. The sector has climbed to a 0.4% gain, which presently makes energy the best performing group. Energy's newfound strength comes as oil prices extend their climb to sport a 2.6% gain at $102 per barrel. Oil prices haven't been this high in months.

Not to be ignored, consumer staples stocks are showing strength. The sector is up 0.3% as names like Colgate-Palmolive (CL 89.47, +0.68) attract interest. DJ30 -20.47 NASDAQ -3.31 SP500 -1.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1080/945 mln/1375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/350 mln/1755

1:00 pm : Stocks have been stuck in negative territory all session. Limited leadership is largely the cause.

Widespread weakness weighed on stocks this morning, leaving the major averages to open with marked losses. Efforts to take stocks higher were stymied by sellers redoubling early efforts.

Tech stocks showed some relative strength earlier, but the group's attempt to push into positive territory lost momentum once it came upon the neutral line. Dell (DELL 15.25, -0.38) has been a drag all day after its issued tepid guidance cast a pall over an upside earnings surprise. Tech stocks, which collectively make up the largest sector by market weight, are now down 0.4% for the day. Overall, tech's inability to turn positive has hampered the Nasdaq, which also lost momentum as it moved within striking distance of the flat line.

Perhaps the heaviest drag on broad market action, financials are down 1.0% today. The sector has lagged all session as shares of large-cap diversified financial services issues encounter relatively pronounced selling pressure.

Pressure against stocks persists even though the euro, generally regarded as a barometer of confidence in the eurozone, has managed to move into positive territory. It is now up 0.2% against the greenback following two straight slides.

Data hasn't seemed to matter a great deal to traders today. The October Consumer Price Index slipped by 0.1%, which is not too different than the consensus call for no change. Core prices made a 0.1% increase, just as had been generally expected. Industrial production increased in October by 0.7%, which is greater than the 0.4% increase that had been broadly expected. DJ30 -59.71 NASDAQ -12.88 SP500 -6.28 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/850 mln/1395 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1195/315 mln/1735

12:30 pm : Stocks have stabilized since pulling back from near neutral territory. Leadership is still lacking, though. In fact, all 10 major sectors remain in negative territory.DJ30 -74.85 NASDAQ -15.43 SP500 -7.35 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 920/770 mln/1495 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1060/290 mln/1850

12:00 pm : Sellers have redoubled their efforts since stocks failed to sustain upward momentum once they came in close contact with the neutral line. The action has left the major equity averages to trade with marked losses.

The timing of the downturn comes shortly after the close of trade in Europe, where the major bourses finished in relatively mixed fashion. That contrasts with action in the prior session, whcih saw stocks begin to bounce from session lows once trade across the Atlantic had settled. DJ30 -69.40 NASDAQ -15.19 SP500 -6.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1050/665 mln/1360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/255 mln/1670

11:30 am : Tech stocks are now mired near the neutral line. Their inability to extend their climb has kept the Nasdaq from advancing out of the red. Just recently the tech-rich Index came within striking distance of an actual gain, but it has since wavered.

Even though favor for many tech stocks has improved since the early going, shares of Dell (DELL 15.40, -0.23) continue to wrestle with sellers. The stock's weakness comes in response to a tepid forecast, which has cast a pall over an upside earnings surprise in the company's latest quarterly report. DJ30 -31.29 NASDAQ -4.21 SP500 -2.86 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1015/575 mln/1335 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1260/220 mln/1600

11:00 am : Stocks have worked their way up to session highs, but the major equity averages all remain in the red and there still isn't a single sector in positive territory.

Although all 10 sectors are stuck in the red, tech is flirting with the flat line as semiconductor stocks show signs of positive leadership. Overall, the sector is currently down 0.1%, but the Semiconductor HOLDRs ETF (SMH 32.49, +0.36) is up in excess of 1%. Tech's relative strength comes after the sector outperformed in the prior session by advancing to a gain greater than 1%. DJ30 -59.18 NASDAQ -7.87 SP500 -5.37 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 695/410 mln/1615 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 755/170 mln/2060

10:30 am : The dollar index is modestly higher this morning, while commodities, as measured by the CRB Commodities Index is slightly lower. By sector, the energy and agriculture complexes are mixed, while metals are in the red.

Crude oil futures are showing gains today following news that Enbridge and Enterprise Products have agreed to reverse the direction of crude oil flows on the Seaway pipeline to enable oil it to transport oil from Cushing, Oklahoma to the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Crude oil rose as high as $102.13/barrel on this news, but was back at around $101.30, up 1.9%, just ahead of crude inventory figures. Following the data, which showed a draw of 1.1 million barrels versus consensus which called for a draw of 1.2 million barrels, crude pulled back modestly and is now trading 2.1% higher at $101.40/barrel.

Natural gas is up 0.6% at $3.56/MMBtu, while RBOB gasoline is 0.9% higher at $2.61/gallon.

Metals are in the red with silver underperforming the rest of the complex. Gold and silver extended losses when pit trading opened and hit new session lows in recent trade (Gold $1753.90, Silver $33.63). Copper is down 1.3% (or -5 cents) at $3.45/lb, platinum is 1.4% lower at $1619.70/oz and aluminum is down 1.9% at $2041/ton.DJ30 -114.01 NASDAQ -20.55 SP500 -10.91 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 655/363 mln/1635 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 682/154 mln/2123

10:00 am : Stocks are trying to trim losses, but weakness remains widespread as all 10 sectors trade in negative territory.

Even most energy stocks, which are collectively down 0.3%, have been unable to shake off broad market pressure, despite a rally in oil prices. Oil prices were last quoted with a 2.1% gain at new multi-month high of $101.45 per barrel. That said, offshore drilling outfit Transocean (RIG 49.02, +1.16) is up sharply after it sold off during the prior session amid reports that it may be involved in a recent oil leak. DJ30 -114.35 NASDAQ -17.95 SP500 -10.29 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 495/95 mln/1620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 465/55 mln/2200

09:45 am : Stocks are down markedly this morning. There isn't a single sector in positive territory, but the slide has been led by financials, which are currently down 1.3%, making them the worst performing group of the bunch. Asset management plays and regional banks are presently among the poorest performers in the financial pack.DJ30 -106.56 NASDAQ -15.51 SP500 -9.47 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec NA/NA/NA

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -13.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.80. Stock futures point to a lower start for the session. In the backdrop is lackluster action in Europe and a dearth of relatively mixed earnings reports. With participants turning more defensive, Treasuries have ticked higher ahead of the open. The dollar is also up modestly this morning. Despite the greenback's gain, oil prices have pushed past $100 per barrel for the first time in several months. Economic data haven't been too exciting. CPI for October barely budged, as had been expected. Just released, industrial production increased in October by 0.7%, which is greater than the 0.4% increase that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -18.30. For the first time in five months oil prices are trading above $100 per barrel -- the energy component is currently up 1.3% to $100.70 per barrel in the opening minutes of pit trade. Weekly oil inventory numbers will be released at 10:30 AM ET. Natural gas prices are up 0.3% to $3.55 per MMBtu. Precious metals are under a bit of pressure this morning. Specifically, gold prices are down 0.5% to $1773 per ounce, while silver was recently quoted with a 0.7% loss at $34.23 per ounce. In the backdrop, the dollar is up 0.3% against a collection of competing currencies.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -14.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -17.00. Stock futures haven't made much of a move in response to the latest dose of data, most likely because of the absence of surprises. Not too different than the Briefing.com consensus call for no change in the October Consumer Price Index, overall consumer prices slipped by 0.1%. Core prices made a 0.1% increase, just as had been generally expected. Year-over-year, overall CPI is up 3.5% and core CPI is up 2.1%. Still on tap for today are Treasury International Capital numbers at 9:00 AM ET, then industrial production data at 9:15 AM ET. The monthly Housing Market Index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET and weekly oil inventory numbers will be released at 10:30 AM ET.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -12.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -15.80. The major equity averages settled the prior session with varied gains, but any strength from that move has been checked in overnight trade, leaving stock futures to lag fair value this morning. Relative weakness comes amid lackluster action in Europe, where the region's major bourses already logged sizable losses in two straight sessions.

Only a handful of earnings announcements have been made since the prior session's close. Dell (DELL 15.20, -0.43) posted an upside earnings surprise, but issued a relatively tepid forecast. Meanwhile, Target (TGT 54.90, +1.72) complemented a better-than-expected earnings report with in-line guidance.

On tap for today is the latest CPI reading, which is due at the bottom of the hour. It is followed by Treasury International Capital numbers at 9:00 AM ET, then industrial production data at 9:15 AM ET. The monthly Housing Market Index will be posted at 10:00 AM ET and weekly oil inventory numbers will be released at 10:30 AM ET.

Note: all stock quotes reference pre-market prices

06:59 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -13.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -19.80.

06:58 am : Nikkei...8463.16...-78.80...-0.90%. Hang Seng...18960.90...-387.50...-2.00%.

06:58 am : FTSE...5461.11...-56.30...-1.00%. DAX...5870.91...-62.20...-1.10%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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