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 Post subject: October 10th Monday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +19.70
PostPosted: Mon Oct 10, 2011 5:05 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +19.70 points or $1970.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=95&t=1023.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=1237

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

S&P 500 Gains Most Since August on European Pledge

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Bloomberg's Deborah Kostroun reports on the performance of the U.S. equity market today. U.S. stocks advanced, giving the Standard & Poor's 500 its biggest rally since August, after the leaders of France and Germany pledged a plan to support European banks and stem the region's debt crisis.

Stocks Rocket On Europe Hopes

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By Hibah Yousuf October 10, 2011: 4:24 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks rallied strongly Monday as investors cheered a pledge from European leaders to unveil a plan for solving the eurozone's debt crisis by the end of the month.

The optimism pushed the euro up nearly 2% against the dollar. Commodities also joined in the party, with oil and silver prices gaining 3%.

Over the weekend, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy said they have come up with a plan to get Europe's festering debt problems under control. The plan, which will include recapitalizing European banks, will be presented to world leaders at the G20 meeting in Cannes Nov. 3 and 4.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) gained 329 points, or 2.9%, to close at 11,433. The S&P 500 (SPX) added 39 points, or 3.4%, to 1,195. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) rose 86 points, or 3.5%, 2,566.

All 30 Dow components were higher, and only a handful of S&P 500 companies traded in the red, including Sprint and Netflix.

French banks Credit Agricole, Societe Generale and BNP Paribas finished up between 3% to 7%. Shares of Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), Citigroup (C, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Morgan Stanley (MS, Fortune 500), Goldman Sachs (GS, Fortune 500) and Wells Fargo (WFC, Fortune 500) gained between 3% and 7%.

"The Europe debt crisis cloud has been hanging over the market for a year-and-a-half now," said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James. "The risks and worries have been intensifying over the last couple of weeks, but after this weeknd, the market is expecting something big and concrete that will put the crisis behind us."

While talk of a strategy is encouraging, the lack of details is still concerning.

"There is still a healthy bill of skepticism because we've been here before -- many times before," said Michael Hewson, analyst at CMC Markets in London. "All Merkel and Sarkozy have done is reiterated their statements from earlier, and kicked the can down to Cannes."

Meanwhile, troubled Franco-Belgian bank Dexia became the first casualty of the eurozone's money woes. On Monday, the bank accepted a €90 billion joint bailout from France, Belgium and Luxembourg.
Europe's debt crisis: 5 things you need to know

Investors have been quick to react to headlines concerning Europe's debt crisis.

"Dexia passed the stress test earlier this summer with flying colors -- yet here we are now, three months later, and it needs a bailout," said Hewson. "I think that begs the question as to whether Dexia is a special case, or if it's one in a long line of other bailouts.

On Friday, U.S. stocks ended lower as downgrades for Italy, Spain and 12 U.K. financial institutions overshadowed a better-than-expected report on the U.S. job market.

* Video - Whitney: Many European banks will fail

World markets: European stocks finished higher. Britain's FTSE 100 (UKX) added 1.8%, the DAX (DAX) in Germany gained 3%, and France's CAC 40 (CAC40) climbed 2%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) slipped 0.6%, while the Hang Seng (HSI) in Hong Kong inched higher. Tokyo was closed for holiday.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar lost ground against the British pound and Japanese yen.

Oil for November delivery rose $2.43 to $85.41 a barrel.

Gold futures for December delivery added $35 to $1,670.80 an ounce.

Companies: Sprint's (S, Fortune 500) stock tumbled after six banks downgraded the stock -- the selling followed a 20% slide on Friday. Sprint said it is running out of money and may need to draw down its credit line or raise more capital to fund itself.

Netflix (NFLX) shares turned lower after an initial rally as the company ditched a plan announced last month to spin off its DVD streaming business and rename it Qwikster.

Shares of Yahoo (YHOO, Fortune 500) climbed, as talk about a possible buyout of the struggling company continued to swirl. Following chatter that Microsoft (MSFT, Fortune 500) and Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba were considering a bid for Yahoo, Reuters reported that the company could also be sold to a private-equity firm.

Dow components Alcoa (AA, Fortune 500) and JPMorgan Chase report quarterly financial results later this week, as well Pepsico (PEP, Fortune 500) and Google (GOOG, Fortune 500). All four heavyweights are among the S&P 500 companies.

Overall earnings for the companies in the S&P 500 are expected to be up 12.6% in the third quarter versus the same period last year, according to analysts at S&P Capital IQ.

Bonds: The bond market is closed for Columbus Day.

Image

Market Update

4:30 pm : The stock market scored its best single-session percentage gain in almost seven weeks. The effort was broad based and came on the back of a commitment by leading officials in Europe to recapitalize the region's flagging financial institutions.

Early participants focused on news that over the weekend Germany's Chancellor Merkel and France's President Sarkozy pledged to support a plan intended to shore up capital at European banks and financial outfits. Their commitment came across as more unified than what had been previously displayed by the pair. The notion that eurozone leaders will be more concerted in their efforts to stabilize the region's precarious financial conditions, thereby reducing the risk of contagion, emboldened buyers, who engaged in an aggressive bout of buying.

The S&P 500 rallied more than 3% for its best one-day jump since August. That helped the broad market measure push through its 50-day moving average and close above that technical trend line for the first time since July.

No specifics regarding plans to improve financial conditions in Europe are currently available, but bank stocks and financial issues performed as if the risks inherent to their positions in Europe were reduced dramatically. That gave both the KBW Bank Index and the broader financial sector gains of more than 5%.

The euro also won support from traders. The currency rallied 2.0% to $1.365 for one of its best single-session percentage gains in a year.

The euro's bounce put pressure on the dollar, helping to amplify buying interest among commodities. Oil was an especially strong performer in the commodity complex. The energy component climbed almost 3% to close pit trade at $85.41 per barrel.

The combination of higher oil prices and a stronger equity market helped energy stocks rally to a 4.5% gain. They were second only to financials. Materials plays, also helped by higher commodity prices, swung to a 4.2% gain.

Bonds will re-open for regular trading hours tomorrow. The market was closed today in observance of Columbus Day.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +5.1%, Energy +4.5%, Materials +4.2%, Industrials +3.6%, Consumer Discretionary +3.5%, Tech +3.4%, Health Care +2.5%, Telecom +2.1%, Utilities +2.0%, Consumer Staples +1.6%
Declining Sectors: (None) DJ30 +330.06 NASDAQ +86.70 NQ100 +3.5% R2K +4.4% SP400 +3.6% SP500 +39.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2125/1.57 bln/435 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2784/888 mln/256

3:30 pm : Weakness in the dollar and corresponding strength in the euro, following commentary from French President Sarkozy and German Chancellor Merkel, was the focus of commodities today. The two leaders met in Berlin this weekend for a bilateral summit, and they set a deadline at the end of Oct to reach an agreement on a comprehensive package of measures to stabilize the eurozone... Precious metals rallied on the dollar weakness. Gold posted gains of 2.2% to close at $1670.80 per ounce, while silver prices added 3.2% to finish at $31.98 per ounce.

Crude oil futures rallied on the dollar's weakness, as well as the strength in equity markets. Futures gained 2.9% to close at $85.41 per barrel. Crude put in highs at $86.09, its best levels since Sept 21. Natural gas ended up 1.7% at $3.54 per MMBtu.DJ30 +237.31 NASDAQ +57.37 SP500 +29.79 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1945/1.2 bln/600 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2721/559.8 mln/326

3:00 pm : Stocks climbed sharply in the first hour of trade, but have been adrift ever since. In fact, for almost five hours the S&P 500 has been confined to a five-point trading range that has run alongside the 1190 line. With the final hour at hand, it will be interesting to see whether or not stocks hold their gains into the close or experience some volatility.

News flow has been slow all afternoon. Things will pick up in coming days as earnings season gets underway. Dow component Alcoa (AA 9.99, +0.28) unofficially kicks off earnings season with its latest quarterly report tomorrow night. DJ30 +264.34 NASDAQ +70.02 SP500 +31.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2045/1.03 bln/475 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2770/480 mln/250

2:30 pm : Stocks made just about all of their gains in the first hour of trade. Ever since, the major equity averages have drifted sideways in a relatively tight range. That has made for a rather unexciting afternoon for market watchers. Despite the lack of theatrics, bullish investors have to be applauding the fact that stocks are up almost 3% today, or about 8% over the last five sessions.DJ30 +274.47 NASDAQ +75.78 SP500 +33.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2060/950 mln/80 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2785/440 mln/215

2:00 pm : Stocks have eased off of session highs, but continue to trade with heady gains. The steady, broad-based buying effort has come in the wake of word that Germany's Chancellor Merkel and France's President Sarkozy offered a more unified commitment to shoring up financial conditions in Europe, where a weakened banking system and precarious fiscal conditions have been a source of weakness for stocks for months.DJ30 +274.70 NASDAQ +76.56 SP500 +33.70 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 2010/860 mln/400 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2800/420 mln/200

1:30 pm : The stock market has managed to muster a few more points, which are enough to take the S&P 500 across 1190 to set a fresh new high.

Share volume has been solid, but nothing extraordinary. It is possible that some regular participants are off of their desks because the bond market is closed today in observance of Columbus Day. The bond market will re-open for regular trading hours on Tuesday. DJ30 +289.76 NASDAQ +78.63 SP500 +35.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1990/785 mln/375 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2790/390 mln/180

1:00 pm : A more unified, concerted commitment to a bank recapitalization plan by eurozone leaders has brought about a barrage of buying interest that has sent the stock market up sharply to a near two-week high above its 50-day moving average.

Stocks made a strong run early, but have spent the past couple of hours drifting sideways. That has kept the S&P 500 just a couple of points shy of the 1190 line.

Financials were up in excess of 4% earlier, but have eased back to trade with a 3.7% gain. Yet the sector continues to provide considerable support to the broad market today. It's strength comes as many participants show want for bank stocks and diversified financial services issues since the riskiness related to their exposure to Europe has been reduced by recent efforts to shore up the region's financial conditions.

Natural resource plays have been strong performers, too. Energy stocks are up 4.1% while materials stocks are up 3.6%. In addition to a positive tone in the broad market, their shares have been helped by higher commodity prices, which are collectively up 2.1%, according to the CRB Commodity Index. While strength in the commodity complex is broad, oil is sporting one of the most impressive gains. It is currently up 3.5% to $85.90 per barrel.

A deep drop by the dollar, down 1.6% against a collection of competing currencies, has bolstered the case for commodities. Most of the dollar's downturn is due to the euro's rally following the commitment of France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel to shoring up eurozone banking outfits. DJ30 +275.19 NASDAQ +74.54 SP500 +32.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1980/730 mln/390 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2785/355 mln/200

12:30 pm : Action remains steady, leaving stocks to trade alongside session highs.

Meanwhile, commodities continue to climb, taking the CRB Commodity Index to a 2.0% gain. Oil has been a primary driver of that move; the energy component is currently up 3.4% to $85.80 per barrel.

Oil's ascent has been helped by a weaker dollar, which continues to trend lower against the euro. The euro is now up 2.2% to $1.368, which makes for an October high. DJ30 +274.88 NASDAQ +75.82 SP500 +33.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1975/705 mln/360 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2780/330 mln/180

12:00 pm : Stocks have spent the past 90 minutes drifting along near session highs. The steady sideways movement is allowing gains to consolidate.

Although the broad market is little changed in recent trade, financials have managed to rise steadily. In turn, the sector is now up more than 4%. Morgan Stanley (MS 15.39, +1.15) and Citigroup (C 26.45, +1.82) are leaders there. Aon (AON 44.20, +0.72) and Moody's (MCO 31.36, +0.53) are at the back end of the spectrum, but even they are both spoting gains beyond 1%. DJ30 +274.85 NASDAQ +77.36 SP500 +33.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 560/625 mln/60 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2780/290 mln/180

11:30 am : Stock averages are only slightly below their best levels of the day, still sporting big gains. Despite the broad market's strength, shares of Sprint (S 2.21, -0.20) have slumped to a loss of more than 8%. The stock's dive comes amid several analyst downgrades and news that analysts at S&P have placed the company's ratings on Watch Negative. Shares of S are also atop the list of today's most actively traded names by share volume.DJ30 +273.41 NASDAQ +73.91 SP500 +32.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1940/580 mln/310 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2760/265 mln/140

11:00 am : Stocks are at new session highs. The run today marks a resumption of a three-session streak of gains that was snapped on Friday. Including today's bounce, the stock market has climbed 8% over five sessions.

While stocks climb, the dollar continues to tumble. It now trails a basket of major foreign currencies by 1.6%. Most of that is owed to a resurgent euro, which was last quoted at $1.365 for a 2.0% gain. The euro's rally follows commitment to a bank recapitalization plan by France President Sarkozy and Germany Chancellor Merkel. DJ30 +265.05 NASDAQ +73.99 SP500 +32.00 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1935/465 mln/315 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2765/215 mln/145

10:35 am : The dollar index has been on a downtrend all morning, which has been providing price support to the commodity complex, excluding the livestock sector (lean hogs futures -1.4%, live cattle -0.4%)

Crude oil has been in positive territory all session and added to its gains when U.S. equity markets opened. Minutes ago, crude hit a new session high of $85.92/barrel and is currently up 3.5% at $85.84/barrel. Natural gas is currently 1.3% higher at $3.53/MMBtu.

Precious metals are showing solid gains as well this morning. Gold ran as high as $1673.10/oz two hours ago and is currently up 1.9% at $1667.40/oz. Silver is the best performing commodity in the CRB Commodity Index this morning with gains of over 4%. Silver's session high of $32.34/oz was hit around 8:00am EST, and after moving higher in recent activity and breaking through the $32 level, silver is back near that high; now at $32.31, up 4.2%.DJ30 +271.29 NASDAQ +75.13 SP500 +32.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1966/331 mln/343 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2730/167 mln/145

10:00 am : The S&P 500 has pushed past the 1180 line, moving to its best level of October. Buying has been broad based, such that all 10 major sectors are up by 1% or more.

Materials have replaced financials as the top performing sector. Materials are up 3.3% amid strength in diversified metals and mining plays. Still, financials aren't far behind; they're up 3.2% amid strength in banks and diversified financial services issues. Utilities, up 1.0%, are at the back end of the bunch. DJ30 +222.59 NASDAQ +57.25 SP500 +26.27

09:45 am : The major equity averages are up sharply this morning. The effort has the broad market back in touch with its 50-day moving average for the first time in more than two months.

Financials dragged on trade this past Friday, but the sector is leading this morning. It is already up 3.0% as bank stocks and diversified financial services stocks bounce. Many are taking their cues from European banks, which have been bid sharply higher in response to a more concerted, unified commitment by Europe's officials to shore up financial institutions in their region. DJ30 +210.01 NASDAQ +45.86 SP500 +22.95 NASDAQ Vol N/A NYSE Vol N/A

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +35.00. Stock futures suggest that the cash market will open with a gain in excess of 1%. That would build on last week's positive performance, which saw the S&P 500 climb about 2% as market participants showed an increased willingness to take on risk. As was the case last week, the positive tone to premarket trade has come in response to more concerted efforts by Europe's officials to commit resources to the stabilization of the region's banks and financial institutions. That has helped bolster buying interest in the euro, but put pressure on the dollar, which was last quoted with a 1.3% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies. The dollar's deep decline and the generally positive tone of premarket trade is helping to prop up commodity prices, which are collectively up more than 1%, according to the CRB Commodity Index. As for bonds, the market is closed today in observance of Columbus Day.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +35.00. Following a 4.5% weekly gain, oil prices are up another 2.0% to $84.60 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade today. In the backdrop is news of violence in the streets of Egypt. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are up 1.1% to $3.52 per MMBtu after they tumbled 3.1% last week. Among precious metals, gold prices are up 1.9% to $1667 per ounce after a 0.8% gain last week. Silver prices ascended 3.2% last week and are up this morning by another 3.5% to $32.07 per ounce. Overall strength in the commodity complex has the CRB Commodity Index up 1.2%.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +18.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +32.20. Europe's bourses are up with varied gains today. The effort follows news that officials in the region plan to recapitalize eurozone banks. Although no specifics are currently public, the plan has been backed by France's Sarkozy and Germany's Merkel. News of the plan comes after Italy and Spain were both downgraded by analysts at Fitch, while analysts at Moody's downgraded a bevy of banks in the United Kingdom and Portugal. Earlier today analysts at S&P affirmed their AAA rating on France. France's CAC has climbed to a 0.9% gain. BNP Paribas is showing leadership. Germany's DAX has responded by moving up to a 0.4% gain. Buying has been broad based, but Volkswagen is sporting the best percentage gain -- it is up almost 4%. Britain's FTSE is currently up 0.8%. ARM Holdings, Anglo American, and Rio Tinto (RIO) are in the strongest shape. Lloyds Group (LYG) is also in strong shape, despite news that it will incur a substantial markdown on its real estate portfolio.

Overnight action in Asia left Hong Kong's Hang Seng to settle unchanged after a late-session slide. Property plays were a primary point of weakness, as were energy plays like PetroChina (PTR) and Sinopec. It was announced over the weekend that Sinopec has made a move to acquire Canada-based Daylight Energy. During the weekend it was also announced that China cut fuel prices. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite re-opened after holiday observance kept it closed for all of last week. It slid to a 0.6% loss.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +19.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +33.00. Coming off of a 2% weekly gain, stocks appear poised to start the new week on a positive note. Premarket bidding comes as the bourses of Europe sport varied gains following commitment by France and Germany to support the region's banking institutions through a recapitalization plan. That commitment comes after analysts at Fitch cut their debt ratings on Italy and Spain, and analysts at Moody's downgraded the debt of a bevy of banks in the United Kingdom and Portugal. The U.S. equity market will maintain regular trading hours today, but the bond market is closed in observance of Columbus Day. There are no economic releases on tap.

06:53 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +19.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +31.80.

06:53 am : Nikkei...Holiday......... Hang Seng...17711.06...+4.10...0.00.

06:53 am : FTSE...5353.36...+50.00...+0.90%. DAX...5701.44...+25.70...+0.50%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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