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 Post subject: October 6th Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +21.30
PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2011 11:00 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)

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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Trade Performance for Today: +21.30 points or $2130.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, all trades were posted real-time in the free #FuturesTrades chat room. Today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details (e.g. time, price, contract size) about each one of my trades from entry to exit along with price action commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=95&t=1021.

To join our free chat room...registration instructions located at a different forum @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=630

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=144&t=1237

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Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED/ECB/IMF actions or any important global economic events that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables (key market events) causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that results in swing points and strong continuation price actions. Thus, I pay attention to these key market events from one trade to the next trade to give me the market context for my technical analysis. Just as important, these summaries becomes my archives to allow me to understand what was happening on any given trading day in the past...something I can not get from my broker statements alone.

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Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks overcame intraday resistance to settle at session highs for another big gain. The stock market has now scored three strong gains in just as many days.

Financials fueled today's rally, but only after the sector overcame early selling pressure. Following a relatively lackluster performance in the prior session, financials faltered this morning, falling to a loss well in excess of 1%. But bank stocks brought the sector back from the red. Bank of America (BAC 6.28, +0.51), one of the most actively traded names by share volume, rallied nearly 9% to its weekly high. It drove the KBW Bank Index to a 4.5% gain and led the financial sector to a 3.2% gain.

Consumer discretionary stocks also scored strong gains, finishing 2.2% for the better. Retailers were in focus amid a relatively mixed round of same-store sales reports for September. J.C. Penney (JCP 28.42, +0.78) managed to stage a strong gain, even though the company cut its earnings forecast.

While financials drove most of the action for the day, it was a broad push into the close that helped the S&P 500 overcome resistance at the 1160 line, which had rebuffed the broad market measure several times throughout the trading session. Stocks didn't breach the line until the final 30 minutes of action.

Strength among stocks put pressure on Treasuries. The corresponding rise in yields took that of the 10-year Note back to 2.00%.

The dollar dove to a loss of about 0.6% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Its tumble came after the euro rallied out of the red to end the day with a 0.6% gain at $1.344. The sterling pound slashed a loss of more than 1% to settle at $1.544 for a loss of only 0.2%. The pound's initial punishment came in response to a decision by the Bank of England (BoE) to increase its asset purchase plan by 75 billion to 275 billion pounds. The BoE kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, though. The European Central Bank (ECB) kept its target at 1.50%, which surprised many since some sort of accommodative measure had become widely expected among market pundits.

Data had little impact on today's trade. The only item on the docket was the latest weekly initial jobless claims count, which increased by 6,000 week-over-week to 401,000. It barely differed from the Briefing.com consensus call for 402,000 initial claims.

Tomorrow brings the always pivotal official non-farm payrolls report. Participants were given a glimpse of the September number by a better-than-expected ADP Employment Change earlier this week, although the ADP is not always statistically identical. No matter the number, though, the reaction to the report should be telling of market sentiment, especially since stocks have rallied 6% during the course of the past three sessions.

Advancing Sectors: Financials +3.2%, Materials +2.5%, Consumer Discretionary +2.2%, Industrials +2.2%, Tech +1.7%, Energy +1.6%, Utilities +1.6%, Health Care +1.1%, Consumer Staples +1.0%, Telecom +0.6%
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +183.38 NASDAQ +46.31 NQ100 +1.6% R2K +2.4% SP400 +2.5% SP500 +20.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1934/2.25 bln/596 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2592/1.12 bln/461

3:30 pm : Crude oil futures extended their rally to a second consecutive session after posting a gain of 3.7% to close at $82.59 per barrel. Over the past two sessions futures have now gained 9%, and have recouped close to all of their losses from the recent three session pullback. Strength in equities helped crude oil futures trade to the upside today. Natural gas ended higher by 1% at $3.60 per MMBtu. Futures sold off following this morning's inventory data, which more-or-less came in line with expectations, but managed to rally off of lows to finish the day in positive territory.

Following the volatile trade in gold this morning, it was a relatively quiet session for the precious metal. Futures chopped around the flat line for a majority of the day but managed to push into positive territory heading into the close of pit trade to post gains of 0.7% at $1653.20 per ounce. Silver futures, which gained 5% to close at $32 per ounce, traded steadily higher throughout the session to close near highs.DJ30 +93.09 NASDAQ +24.67 SP500 +15.12 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1668/1.7 bln/840 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2383/732.7 mln/671

3:00 pm : For the third time today the S&P 500 struggled to push past the 1160 line. Despite such resistance, stocks continue to sport impressive gains. As things stand, the broad market is on pace for its third straight advance, which has the stock market up about 5% since the close of trade on Monday.

Given the positive tone of recent trade, the Volatility Index, a commonly used statistical index to measure investor sentiment, has dropped to 37 after it had been at a monthly high above 45 earlier this week. DJ30 +115.45 NASDAQ +31.94 SP500 +12.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1735/1.55 bln/755 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2430/625 mln/575

2:30 pm : The broad market has retraced its recent pullback so that it is back at its session high. Financials continue to lead the effort; the sector is back at its best level of the day, sporting a 2.0% gain.DJ30 +143.15 NASDAQ +35.33 SP500 +15.85 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/1.43 bln/725 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2435/575 mln/560

2:00 pm : Telecom stocks have trailed the broad market for the past two sessions. Yesterday the telecom sector logged a loss of 0.3%. It is stuck at the flat line today.

The push against telecom stocks comes as participants display a sense of increased confidence and, as a result, favor riskier issues that are often more cyclical in nature. Given telecom's relatively stodgy nature, participants are likely looking for opportunities for capital appreciation over dividend income. DJ30 +100.58 NASDAQ +27.10 SP500 +12.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1695/1.32 bln/765 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2375/525 mln/635

1:30 pm : Stocks are still shy of their session highs, but they're not exactly backing down after the S&P 500 failed to overcome resistance at the 1160 line. As such, stocks continue to sport strong gains.

Given the stock market's strength, Treasuries are still wrestling with significant selling pressure. The action there has taken the yield on the benchmark 10-year Note to within only a few basis points of 2.00%. DJ30 +79.58 NASDAQ +22.21 SP500 +9.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1750/1.21 bln/695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2400/475 mln/580

1:00 pm : Financials have been the driving force in today's action. The sector led an early slide, but its subsequent rebound has boosted the broad market to its third straight gain.

Many participants were disappointed this morning by the lack of accommodative measures taken during the latest meeting by the European Central Bank, which kept its target interest rate at 1.50%. The Bank of England also left its target rate unchanged, at 0.50%, but increased its asset purchase plan by 75 billion to 275 billion pounds. The sterling pound dropped in response, but it has since halved its loss so that it is now down 0.5% for the day. Meanwhile, the euro has rallied out of the red so that it is up 0.3% for the session.

Financials had lagged in the prior session, but got a late lift from the broad market. Sentiment surrounding the sector soured again this morning, resulting in an early drop that took financials down in excess of 1%. However, financials battled back amid leadership from bank stocks. The group's climb to a collective gain of more than 1% has also boosted the broad market.

Although renewed strength in the financial sector has helped inspire broad market buying interest, the S&P 500 has been unable to push past the 1160 line. After two failed attempts to trade above that mark, stocks have drifted to afternoon lows. Nonetheless, the stock market is up for the third straight session and boasting a cumulative gain of about 5% over that time.

Data has had little sway with trade today. The latest weekly initial jobless claims tally of 401,000 was almost spot on with what had been generally expected by economists polled by Briefing.com. Tomorrow brings the latest monthly non-farm payrolls report. In a preview of that report, the ADP Employment Change for September showed yesterday that private payrolls increased by about 90,000, which is double what had been broadly anticipated ahead of that report. DJ30 +83.97 NASDAQ +28.35 SP500 +10.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1800/1.08 bln/620 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2450/430 mln/510

12:30 pm : Both the Dow and S&P 500 have returned to session highs after a brief pullback. As for the Nasdaq, it is at its best level of the day, sporting a modest lead over each of its counterparts. The Nasdaq's relative strength is consistent with its performances in recent sessions, mostly because large-cap tech has been in favor among market participants.DJ30 +109.74 NASDAQ +34.71 SP500 +14.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1670/955 mln/705 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2410/385 mln/525

12:00 pm : The S&P 500 recently moved another leg higher so that it came in touch with the 1160 line, but it has been unable to hold that position. In turn, stocks are sitting just shy of their session highs.

Financials continue to provide leadership, which comes in stark contrast to how they started the session. In the early going the financial sector slid to a loss of more than 1%, but it has since rallied to a 2.0% gain. Bank of America (BAC 6.11, +0.34) has been a primary leader. Not only is it the top performing stock in the financial sector by percent gained, it is also the most actively traded name by share volume. Notably, today's trading volume in shares of BAC is already almost half of what the stock averages on a daily basis. DJ30 +93.36 NASDAQ +27.50 SP500 +12.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1660/860 mln/695 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2380/345 mln/530

11:30 am : The S&P 500 is back near its best level of the day, but it is having a relatively difficult time making much of a move beyond the 1150 line.

The dollar has dropped into negative territory after it had been bid higher in response to statements this morning from the European Central Bank and Bank of England. The sterling pound has since slashed its loss in half so that it trades 0.5% lower on the day at $1.539. Meanwhile, the euro has rallied from a morning loss to a 0.5% gain at $1.342. Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel, was recently reported to have stated that the dollar may give way to a multipolar system in time. This concept isn't necessarily anything new, though. DJ30 +63.20 NASDAQ +23.90 SP500 +9.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1500/700 mln/800 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2240/275 mln/630

11:00 am : Action in the past hour of trade has seen stocks rebound from their morning retreat. The major equity averages are now up with varied gains.

The market's bounce has come with help from the financial sector, which tumbled to a loss well in excess of 1% this morning, but has since rallied to a 0.8% gain. The move has been led by large-cap banking and financial services giants like Bank of America (BAC 5.98, +0.21) and Citigroup (C 25.64, +0.93).

For the second straight session, though, materials stocks are out in front. The sector has already run ahead to a 1.5% gain. The move comes coincides with a bounce by commodities, which are collectively up 0.8%, as measured by the CRB Commodity Index. DJ30 +27.62 NASDAQ +14.33 SP500 +4.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1360/545 mln/875 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2110/215 mln/710

10:35 am : Weakness in the dollar index, which recently fell below the 79.00 level, has provided price support to the commodity complex this morning.

Natural gas futures have been in positive territory for over the past hour now, following a rally from $3.54 to its currently session high of $3.58/MMBtu, hit just minutes ahead of today's inventory data. Following the data, which showed a build of 97 bcf versus consensus of a build of 100 bcf, natural gas are now trading in the red; currently at $3.56, down 0.2%.

Crude oil has been trading between approx. $79-81.15 over the last six hours. About 15 minutes before pit trading began, crude sold off, losing about $1.73/barrel and hitting a new session low of $79.15/barrel about 25 minutes later. The energy component has moved back into positive territory and is currently up 1.3% at $80.69/barrel.

Silver has been in positive territory all session. The precious metal put in its session high of $31.77/oz. in early morning activity and is currently heading back in that direction after its recent $0.80 move higher. Gold futures have been rather choppy and put in a new session low of $1633.20/oz. about 30 minutes ago. It's since moved back into positive territory and is now up 0.5% at $1649.60/oz. Silver is 4% higher at $31.54/oz.DJ30 +41.40 NASDAQ +18.74 SP500 +5.90 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1382/499 mln/842 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2124/203 mln/682

10:00 am : A flurry of selling has caused stocks to slide into negative territory. The downturn has been led by the financial sector, which has tumbled quickly to a 1.5% loss.

Financials hampered action yesterday, although the broad market was still able to stage a strong gain and ultimately lift the financial sector along with it. The weakness of the financial sector remains underpinned by concerns related to the exposure of banks to the eurozone, which continues to contend with precarious fiscal and financial conditions. Despite such conditions, the European Central Bank opted to keep its benchmark lending rate at 1.50%, and refused to introduce any kind of plans for new accommodations to monetary policy. DJ30 -52.75 NASDAQ -6.22 SP500 -6.77 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1025/112 mln/920 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1515/62 mln/1090

09:45 am : The major equity averages are mired near the neutral line, but shares of retailers are up nicely, as measured by the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 48.03, +0.54), following a flurry of same-store sales results for September. Of the bunch, Buckle (BKE 44.18, +2.33) and Target (TGT 51.96, +2.20) posted surprisingly strong results, which have boosted their shares up to big gains in the early going.DJ30 -5.00 NASDAQ +1.66 SP500 -0.32

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -6.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -9.60. Stock futures have surrendered their gains as participants react to the decision by the European Central Bank to keep its target interest rate unchanged at 1.50% without taking any kind of new accommodative action. Many market participants and pundits had come to expect some kind of move by the ECB to help bolster conditions in the eurozone, where precarious fiscal and financial conditions have been at the center of investor concerns for months. That said, the Bank of England did make the decision to increase its asset purchase plan by 75 billion pounds to 275 billion pounds, but kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%. Other headlines this morning have featured an in-line initial jobless claims for the week ended October 1 and an underwhelming round of same-store sales reports for September.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -8.30. Europe's bourses have forfeited some of their gains, but continue to trade markedly higher for the day. Action comes amid the decision by the European Central Bank to keep its target interest rate at 1.50%. Many had expected some kind of a rate cut, but in a press conference ECB President Trichet said that rates remain appropriate. He did indicate, though, that the ECB will conduct two longer term lending programs. Trichet acknowledged that the region's banking sector needs particular attention, and that countries should move to recapitalize banks. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept its benchmark interest rate at 0.50%, but increased its asset purchase plan by 75 billion pounds to 275 billion pounds. The sterling pound has tumbled 1% in response to that decision. Britain's FTSE is currently up 2.1%. Buying has been broad, leaving only a few names behind to trade with losses. Admiral Group, BP Plc (BP), and Man Group Plc are among the few that have failed to find positive territory. Lloyds Group (LYG), Standard Chartered, Rio Tinto (RIO), and Xstrata are among the top performers by percent gained. In France, the CAC has climbed to a 1.7% gain. BNP Paribas and Axa (AXA) are top performers. Carrefour and Essilor International have lagged noticeably. Germany's DAX has advanced to a 1.1% gain. Thyssenkrupp, Allianz (AZ), and Commerzbank are atop the list of leaders. Merck KGAA and Fresenius Medical Care are at the opposite end of the spectrum.

Overnight action in Asia was strong. Japan's Nikkei moved 1.7% higher, boosted by broad-based buying. Fujitsu Ltd. was especially strong; it climbed more than 6%. Sony (SNE) also offered leadership by advancing nearly 5%. Earlier this week the electronics company set a 25-year low. Losses were limited in scope. Hong Kong's Hang Seng surged to a 5.7% gain. CNOOC (CEO) spiked more than 8% as it rallied back from a sharp loss suffered earlier this week. Other natural resource related plays also performed well. Mainland China's Shanghai Composite remained closed for holiday observance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.50. Stock futures have reclaimed some of their gains in recent trade. The effort comes despite news that weekly initial jobless claims moved back above the 400,000, though just barely. After last week's surprise decline to an upwardly revised 395,000, the latest initial claims tally increased to 401,000, which is in line with what had been widely expected. On a side note, continuing claims decreased to 3.70 million from 3.75 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.50. Another bounce by Europe's bourses had helped promote a sense of optimism among premarket participants, such that stock futures were bid makedly higher. However, futures have since drifted off of their morning highs so that a flat start is expected to follow the robust back-to-back gains already booked by the broad market. Early headlines feature the decision by both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank to keep their interest rates at 0.50% and 1.50%, respectively. However, the BoE announced an increase of 75 billion pounds to its asset purchase plan, which now totals 275 billion pounds. That news has put pressure on the sterling pound, which was last quoted with a 1.0% loss at $1.531. ECB President Trichet is scheduled to begin a press conference at the bottom of the hour. Speculation abounds about what plans are in store for European policy, especially since many had expected some kind of rate cut. Only a small dose of domestic data is on tap for today -- weekly initial jobless claims are due at 8:30 AM ET. Same-store sales for September are flooding newswires at the moment. Results, thus far, have been somewhat mixed relative to consensus forecasts. On a separate, and sad note to Apple (AAPL) fans, former Apple CEO and master innovator Steve Jobs has passed away.

06:50 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: flat.

06:50 am : Nikkei...8522.02...+139.00...+1.70%. Hang Seng...17172.28...+922.00...+5.70%.

06:50 am : FTSE...5196.61...+94.40...+1.90%. DAX...5595.61...+122.60...+2.20%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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