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 Post subject: March 31st Thursday 2011 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +7.00
PostPosted: Sun Apr 03, 2011 11:48 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Attachment:
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click on the above image to view today's trading summary

Quote:
The goal for March was to slow down a little to re-energize because I felt like somewhat complacent in my trading. It's an ongoing problem I have almost every March. Regardless, I'm glad to close the month at a profit and I did reach my goals for the month (greater than 10k) although they were less than the prior trading months. As for my trading today, first trade of the day was my best trade. If you have any questions about my trading, want more details about the trade signal behind a particular trade or want to reply about something stated in this message post...click here.

Trade Performance for Today: +7.00 points or $700.00 dollars in the Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
Russell 2000 Emini TF Futures - 1 tick or 0.10 = $10.00 dollars and there's more contract information @ The ICE.
S&P 500 Emini ES Futures - 1 tick or 0.25 = $12.50 dollars and there's more contract information @ CMEGroup.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades trading chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=88&t=798.

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm and there's a free trade signal strategy @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=89 so that you can freely test drive one of our trade strategies with support prior to purchasing the Volatility Trading Report (VTR).

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=135&t=965

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks Quiet Before Friday's Jobs Report
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click on the above image to view today's price action of key markets

By Ken Sweet, contributing writer
March 31, 2011: 4:11 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- U.S. stocks quietly ended a turbulent, headline-filled first quarter on Thursday, with investors remaining in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow's jobs report.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) fell 31 points, or 0.2%. Intel (INTC, Fortune 500) shares were among the biggest decliners on the Dow, falling 1.4% after analysts at FBR Capital cut their price target on the chipmaker.

The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 2.4 points, or 0.2%; and Nasdaq Composite (COMP) rose 4 points, or less than 0.2%.

U.S. stocks posted solid gains this quarter, despite three months of geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East, the March earthquake and nuclear crisis in Japan, and lingering concerns about the U.S. economy. The Dow rose 6.5%, the S&P 500 up 5.6% and the Nasdaq up 4.8% in the first three months of the year.

"You've had a very resilient market in light of the headline news this quarter," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist with Prudential Financial. "But this market has been enjoying very loose monetary policy, which has helped offset the geopolitical concerns."

Fund managers and traders said they don't expect the second quarter to be a repeat performance of the last three months, especially with the lingering geopolitical uncertainty.

"If I had known these headlines were going to cross this past quarter, I would have cashed out of the market and hid under my bed," said Jack Ablin, chief market strategist for Harris Private Bank. "It's remarkable how well this market has held up."

It was a mostly quiet session on Thursday, with traders focusing on the jobs market. The Labor Department said weekly jobless claims fell to 388,000 in the week ended March 26, which was slightly higher than what economists expected.

On Friday, the government will release the closely watched monthly jobs report. A CNNMoney survey of 18 economists forecasts a 180,000 jump in payrolls for March, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 8.9%.

Dick Del Bello, senior partner with hedge fund service provider Conifer Group, said investors are relatively optimistic about the job market, despite being frustrated with its slow recovery.

"I think the anticipation is that the job market is improving," he said. "It's slow, but it's improving. I think everyone would like to see it happen faster, but that's not going to happen."

U.S. stocks ended Wednesday with solid gains, after two upbeat reports on job growth.

Economy: The Chicago-area purchasing managers' index for March fell to a reading of 70.6, compared to February's reading of 71.2. Economists were looking for a reading of 68.9.

The Commerce Department said factory orders fell by 0.1% in February. Economists had expected a 0.4% rise.
0:00 /1:53Berkshire stock under pressure

Companies: Shares of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA, Fortune 500) fell 2% , after Buffett's heir apparent, David Sokol, quit. In a press release Wednesday, Buffett said the resignation was a "total surprise," but he also revealed that Sokol had purchased shares of Lubrizol (LZ, Fortune 500) before pushing him to buy the company in March for $9.7 billion.

Shares of defense contractor Northrup Grumman (NOC, Fortune 500) fell 9% after analysts at Citigroup cut their price target for the company.

World markets: European markets closed broadly lower following the stress test results in Ireland. Britain's FTSE 100 fell 0.7%, the DAX in Germany fell 0.2%, while France's CAC 40 slipped 0.9%.

Asian markets ended mixed. The Shanghai Composite fell 0.9%, while the Hang Seng in Hong Kong ticked up 0.3% and Japan's Nikkei added nearly 0.5%.

Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, in China for a meeting of G-20 finance ministers, said developing nations need flexible exchange rates to help absorb economic shocks. His comments came a day after criticism of U.S. monetary policy by a Chinese economist.

Currencies and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and the Japanese yen, but was flat versus the British pound.

Oil for May delivery gained $2.36 to $106.63 a barrel.

Gold futures for June delivery rose $15.10 to $1,438.90 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose slightly, pushing the yield down to 3.43% from 3.45% late Wednesday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : Stocks finished the first quarter in lackluster fashion, but still scored their best first quarter performance since 1998.

Buying in recent sessions helped the S&P 500 work its way to a quarterly gain of more than 5%. However, momentum was lost today as participants digested some relatively uninspiring data and showed caution ahead of tomorrow's pivotal payrolls report.

Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 26 totaled 388,000, which is down from the prior week, but slightly greater than the 383,000 initial claims that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com.

The Chicago PMI for March came in at 70.6, which is slightly stronger than the 69.5 that had been widely anticipated, but less than the prior month's figure of 71.2.

Factory orders figures for February fell 0.1% in the face of the Briefing.com consensus call for a 0.4% increase.

Late comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota, an FOMC voting member, indicated that the Fed funds rate may need to increase by 75 basis points in late 2011. Stocks wavered a bit in response, but their movement only looked meaningful because of the session's narrow trading range.

Stocks lacked leadership all session long. Energy stocks displayed strength in the early going, but retreated to a 0.3% loss, even though oil prices pushed past $106 per barrel to a new two-year high. Oil prices in the continuous contract gained almost 17% in the first quarter.

Materials stocks and industrial stocks scored a 0.4% gains, collectively, but neither has the weight to provide a broader lift.

Financials fell 0.4% in one of the poorest sector performances. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 83.63, -1.83) was a key source of weakness after the company announced the resignation of David Sokol, who many had considered to be a possible successor for Warren Buffett.

Mosaic (MOS 78.75, -1.70) and CarMax (KMX 32.10, -2.49) both battled selling pressure, too. Both posted better-than-expected earnings.

Although participants exercised restraint ahead of the tomorrow's jobs report, the end of the quarter brought about a slight increase in share volume as investors moved to reposition portfolios. In turn, trading volume on the NYSE exceeded 1 billion shares for the first time in over a week.

Advancing Sectors: Industrials (+0.4%), Materials (+0.4%)
Unchanged: Telecom, Health Care
Declining Sectors: Consumer Staples (-0.3%), Energy (-0.3%), Utilties (-0.3%), Tech (-0.3%), Financials (-0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%)DJ30 -30.88 NASDAQ +4.28 NQ100 +0.1% R2K +0.4% SP400 +0.4% SP500 -2.43 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1494/1.91 bln/1117 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1746/1.08 bln/1241

3:30 pm : Commodities, aside from softs (-0.2%), finished higher today, led by a 4.1% surge in grains. May wheat rallied for 4.9% to close at $7.63 per bushel, May corn gained 4.5% to end at $6.9325, while May soybeans added 2.8% to finish at $14.105 per bushel. All three contracts rallied on this morning's qtrly USDA report, which showed a 15% YoY decline in corn inventory as of March 1, a 5% increase in wheat inventory, and a 1.7% decline in soybeans.

May crude oil surged 2.5% to close at $106.72 per barrel, its best settling levels in ~2.5 yrs and just shy of its ~2.5 yr highs at $106.95. Concerns about a prolonged battle between rebels and Libyan forces pushed crude higher today. May natural gas finished up 0.9% to $4.39 per MMBtu, after recouping its inventory induced losses, which showed a build vs expectations for a modest draw down.

April gold finished higher by 0.8% to $1436.90 per ounce, while May silver gained 0.7% to end at $37.82 per ounce. DJ30 -3.22 NASDAQ +5.30 SP500 -0.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1357/1.4 bln/1239 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1743/509.8 mln/1212

3:00 pm : Tomorrow brings the highly anticipated payrolls report for March. The Briefing.com consensus expects nonfarm payrolls increased 185,000 in March after they increased by 192,000 in February. The initial claims level has stabilized below 400,000, which should help drive strong nonfarm payroll gains. Furthermore, Wednesday's strong ADP report suggests the consensus forecast may be low. The unemployment rate is still a misnomer and has been very difficult to predict. The 8.9% rate from February does not include the vast number of discouraged unemployed workers who left the labor force during the recession.

Manufacturing activities are thought to have held steady in March as the ISM Index is expected to remain at 61.4. The regional manufacturing surveys were decidedly mixed in March -- the Empire State Manufacturing Index increased from 15.43 in February to 17.5 in March; the Philadelphia Fed's Business Outlook increased from 35.9 in February to 45.5 in March, and; the Kansas City Fed's Survey of Manufacturing increased from 23 in February to 39 in March. DJ30 -1.29 NASDAQ +4.34 SP500 +0.51 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/1.27 bln/1258 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1744/473 mln/1196

2:30 pm : Financials and tech have traded with relative weakness all session long. The two sectors are down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Among financials, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 8359, -1.87) is the worst performer by percent lost following news of the resignation by Sokol, who had been considered by many to be a possible replacement for Buffett. Jabil Circuit (JBL 20.69, -0.49) is the poorest performing tech play as its shares are imbued by general weakness among semiconductor stocks.

However, there have been a few bright spots in those two sectors. Specifically, Google (GOOG 586.84, +5.00) is up nicely and so is Morgan Stanley (MS 27.48, +0.25) even though the financial services provider had its earnings estimates cut by analysts at Deutsche Bank. DJ30 -6.66 NASDAQ +1.63 SP500 -0.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1333/1.17 bln/1233 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1742/435 mln/1184

2:00 pm : Listless trade has left the stock market to continue its sideways drift. The slow, steady crawl comes ahead of tomorrow's monthly payrolls report, which is expected to show an increase of 185,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate on the order of 8.9%.

Tomorrow's calendar also features the ISM Index for March and construction spending figures for February. Auto sales will also be released throughout the day. DJ30 +2.80 NASDAQ +1.23 SP500 +0.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1277/1.08 bln/1279 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1727/400 mln/1184

1:30 pm : Energy stocks were early leaders, but the sector has pared its gains over the past few hours. The sector is now up only 0.3% after it had been up 1% this morning.

Materials stocks have maintained their strength, though. The sector is up 0.7%, which makes it today's strongest sector.

Financials and consumer discretionary stocks make up this session's worst performers. Both sectors are down 0.3%. DJ30 +10.63 NASDAQ +1.33 SP500 +0.92 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1216/988 mln/1307 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1699/374 mln/1203

1:00 pm : Stocks have spent the entire session stuck near the neutral line in lackluster trade. The pause in action precedes tomorrow's payrolls report.

Despite the upward trend of the stock market in recent sessions, participants have exercised restraint today. Their caution comes ahead of the always pivotal unemployment report, which will be posted tomorrow morning.

The latest dose of data was rather unexciting. Specifically, the latest initial jobless claims tally totaled 388,000, which is down from the prior week, but slightly greater than the 383,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected.

The Chicago PMI for March came in at 70.6, which is slightly stronger than the 69.5 that had been widely anticipated, but below the prior month's figure of 71.2.

Factory orders figures for February fell 0.1% in the face of calls for a 0.4% increase.

In addition to uninspiring data, corporate news has also failed to motivate broad market trade. In turn, the stock market has been without any clear leader. That has left its underlying sectors divided between positive and negative territory.

Amid the listless action participants have shrugged off upside earnings surprises from Mosaic (MOS 79.70, -0.75) and CarMax (KMX 32.11, -2.48). Shares of KMX are actually among this session's worst performers.

Shares of Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B 83.48, -1.98) are down to a fresh session low. The stock's weakness comes amid news that David Sokol, who had been considered by some to be a possible Buffett successor, has resigned from the company.

Although action today has made for an anticlimactic conclusion to the quarter, the stock market is still sitting on a 5.5% quarterly gain. That makes for its best first quarter performance since 1998.DJ30 +11.58 NASDAQ +1.38 SP500 +0.93 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1163/916 mln/1344 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1659/340 mln/1220

12:30 pm : Amid the stock market's lackluster action today, shares of Las Vegas Sands (LVS 41.61, -1.86) have tumbled more than 4%. The stock's slide comes in response to news that the company has received a request for documents from the Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission regarding alleged regulatory breaches.

However, CarMax (KMX 32.06, -2.53) is one of this session's worst performers. Its 7% slump comes despite its upside earnings surprise for the latest quarter. DJ30 +7.57 NASDAQ -0.43 SP500 +0.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1099/830 mln/1393 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1592/310 mln/1285

12:00 pm : Treasuries have been stuck in a whipsaw session of trade. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note has oscillated back and forth between positive and negative territory. It is currently flat, though. That has its yield sitting at 3.44%.

Oil has managed to maintain most of its gain today. Although the energy compoent is off of its session high, it continues to sport a 1.6% gain at $106 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the dollar is still down about 0.5% against the euro and down about 0.4% against the Japanese yen. DJ30 -9.27 NASDAQ -4.37 SP500 -1.58 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1081/730 mln/1388 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1545/285 mln/1293

11:35 am : Results from Ireland's bank stress tests were just released. The report indicates that four banks, including Allied Irish Banks (AIB) and Bank of Ireland (IRE), need a total of 24 billion euros of additional capital. The euro hasn't really reacted to the news. At $1.418, the euro is currently up about 0.5% against the greenback.DJ30 -14.23 NASDAQ -5.60 SP500 -2.83 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1171/637 mln/1262 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1608/245 mln/1212

11:00 am : Semiconductor stocks are caught in a spell of selling pressure. The group is currently down 0.7% after it butted up against its 50-day average in the prior session. Although its lack of direction in the past few sessions has made for a lackluster finish to the first quarter, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is on pace for a 6.5% quarterly gain. That compares favorably to the S&P 500's first quarter gain of 5.5%.DJ30 +15.63 NASDAQ +2.32 SP500 +0.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1190/500 mln/1167 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1622/195 mln/1174

10:35 am : Oil prices are off of their morning highs, but they continue to sport a gain of about 2% as the energy component trades for $106.20 per barrel.

In contrast, natural gas prices are under pressure. Natural gas inventories for the week ended March 25 had a build of 12 bcf, which contrasts with the consensus call for a draw of 2 bcf. Natural gas prices have pushed lower in response. They now stand at $4.25 per MMBtu, down 2.2%.

Gold has attracted strong support this morning. Prices for the precious metal are up almost $15, or 1%, to $1439.40 per ounce.

The USDA released its latest annual planting report and quarterly grain stocks report this morning. The planting report expressed expectations for a slight increase in corn plantings. Wheat plantings are also expected to increase, but soybean plantings are expected are expected to be lower than originally thought.

As for the grain stocks report, physical corn stocks are down 15% year over year. Soybean inventories are also lower from the prior year while wheat stocks are higher. Corn prices are currently up daily limit to $6.93 per bushel for a 4.5% gain, soybean prices are up 3.3% to $14.17 per bushel, and wheat prices are up 3.0% to $7.49 per bushel.DJ30 +26.94 NASDAQ +2.14 SP500 +0.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1034/355 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1433/150 mln/1284

10:00 am : Energy stocks were up 1.0% just minutes ago, but they have since pulled back bit so that the sector now trades with a 0.6% gain. The sector's slip has aligned it with the materials sector, which is up 0.6%, too. Preference for natural resource plays has made the two sector's this morning's strongest performers.

In contrast, financial stocks, which collectively carry the some of the most market weight, are under pressure. The sector's 0.5% loss is among this morning's worst.

Factory orders figures for February were just released. They fell 0.1%, which is a negative surprise since the consensus call among economists polled by Briefing.com had been pegged at a 0.4% increase. DJ30 +3.03 NASDAQ -2.58 SP500 -1.34 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1003/141 mln/1101 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1422/86 mln/1199

09:45 am : The major equity averages are currently mired near the neutral line as underlying stocks trade in mixed fashion.

However, energy stocks have made a strong bounce in the early going. The sector's early sprint to a 1.0% gain has been helped by oil's rally in early pit trade. Oil prices were last quoted with a 2% gain at $106.30 per barrel.

The Chicago PMI for March was just posted. It came in at 70.6, which is slightly stronger than the 69.5 that had been expected, on average, among economists polled by Briefing.com, but it is down from the prior month's figure of 71.2.DJ30 +4.84 NASDAQ +0.58 SP500 -0.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 850/50 mln/1116 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/42 mln/1257

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -2.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -5.20. Lackluster action abroad, an in-line initial jobless claims tally, and caution ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm paryrolls report have allowed stock futures to weaken so that a slightly lower start to the final session of the quarter looks to be in order. Still, the stock market still sports a first quarter gain of more than 5% to date. That makes for the best first quarter performance since 1998. Crude oil prices are rallying in early pit trade. The energy component was last quoted with at $106.40 per barrel, which makes for a gain of about 2%. Prices in the continuous futures contract are up approximately 16% in the first quarter.

09:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -3.70. Domestic stock futures are flat to slightly lower versus fair value. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are down ahead of bank stress test results from Ireland. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.1%. Economic data out of the country indicate that the unemployment rate for March edged lower to 7.1% from 7.3% in February. Meanwhile, retail sales for February fell 0.3% after they had increased 0.4% in the prior month. France's CAC has been cut down to a 0.5% loss. Financial outfits have been hit with stiff selling pressure. That has BNP Paribas down 1.6%, Societe Generale down 2.0%, and Credit Agricole off by 2.2%. Total (TOT) is sporting a 1.0% gain, though. It is among the CAC's primary leaders. Data indicate that France's PPI increased by 0.8% in February after a 0.9% increase in January. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.2% at the moment. The United Kingdom Consumer Confidence Survey for March came in at -28, which is unchanged from February. In broader data, eurozone CPI increased by 2.6% in March. That was the sharpest increase since 2008.

Japan's Nikkei put together a 0.5%. Tokyo Dome Corp was a top performer with a 6.5% gain. Sumco and Advantest complemented its efforts. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial (MTU) also traded with strength and, as a result, staged a 2.2% gain. Fuji Heavy Industries and Asahi Breweries were at the opposite end of things. Their shares fell 3.3% and 2.7%, respectively. According to data, construction orders spiked 19.5% in February after a 10.7% drop in January. Note that these orders are from February and that the massive earthquake that hit the country occured just a few weeks ago. Hong Kong's Hang Seng mustered a 0.3% gain. That was enough to take the Index to a three-week high. Financial and property plays paved the way for the advance.

08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -4.20. There hasn't been much of a reaction among stock futures to the latest weekly jobless claims data. Initial jobless claims for the week ended March 26 totaled 388,000. That's 6,000 below the prior week's upwardly revised tally of 394,000, but slightly greater than the 383,000 initial claims that had been broadly expected. The four-week moving average increased by 3,250 to 394,250. As for continuing claims, they fell by roughly 50,000 to 3.71 million.

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.50. Stock futures are essentially flat this morning. Overseas markets have failed to offer the same spark that they did in the prior session, when a broad-based bid helped the stock market extend its climb back toward recent highs. Corporate news has been rather light, but Mosaic (MOS) announced last evening an upside earnings surprise for its latest quarter. The stock was recently quoted with a loss of more than 1% in premarket trade. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) announced the resignation of David Sokol, who had been considered by some to be a possible Buffett successor. Shares of BRK.B are down almost 3% this morning. Outside of equities, oil prices are up about a buck to more than $105 per barrel. The bottom of the hour brings the latest weekly initial jobless claims tally. After that, the latest Chicago PMI will be posted at 9:45 AM ET, then Factory Orders figures at 10:00 AM ET. At 10:30 AM ET the latest weekly natural gas inventory data will be released. This week's headlining report -- nonfarm payrolls -- isn't due until tomorrow, though.

06:53 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: +1.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +2.60.

06:53 am : Nikkei...9755.10...+46.30...+0.50%. Hang Seng...23527.52...+76.10...+0.30%.

06:53 am : FTSE...5941.28...-7.10...-0.10%. DAX...7060.09...+2.90...0.00.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Trading (no technical indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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