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 Post subject: November 30th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +4.30
PostPosted: Tue Nov 30, 2010 4:52 pm 
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Trade Results of M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)

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Quote:
I wasn't comfortable with the price action today considering it's the end of the month and usually strange price action appears. Thus, I lowered my overall position size for today's trading session to better manage the increased risk exposure for last trading day of the month. Best trade of the day was my 9th trade of the day that netted +1.20 on a 1 contract position. Yet, usually this would have been a 3 - 4 contract trade during this type of increasing volatility conditions.

Trade Performance for Today: +4.30 points or $430 dollars in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures.
1 tick or 0.10 = $10 dollars and to find out more contract information about the Russell 2000 Emini TF...click here.

In addition, today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs provides details about each trade from entry to exit along with commentary as the trade traversed...all archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=690

Also, posted below are direct links to information about my trade methodology and trading plan (there's a difference between the two) that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis).

Image WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here.

Image Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm

Image Trading Plan Daily Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=125&t=825

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Image Market Summaries

The below summaries by Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance helps me to do a quick review of the fundamentals, FED actions, global economics that had an impact on today's price action. Simply, I'm a strong believer that many variables causes key changes in supply/demand and volatility that's arguably just as important as my technical analysis.

Image CNNMoney.com - Stocks End November With A Whimper
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By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
November 30, 2010: 4:31 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks started November with a bang but ended it with a whimper, as all three major indexes closed the day and month lower on Tuesday.

A stronger-than-expected report on consumer confidence muffled some losses, but the market couldn't fully recover from a weak housing report and concerns about Europe's economy.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 46 points, or 0.4%, but remained barely above the 11,000 mark at 11,006.02. The S&P 500 (SPX) fell 7 points, or 0.6%, to close at 1,180.55, and the Nasdaq (COMP) dropped 27 points, or 1.1%, to end at 2,498.83.

It was a downbeat end to a month that started out strong. The Dow and Nasdaq shot to two-year highs in early November after the Republican success in the Congressional election and the Federal Reserve's announcement of a second round of economy-boosting asset purchases.

But U.S. markets have been whipsawed by overseas worries about debt-ridden European economies, including Ireland, Portugal and Spain. Late Tuesday, S&P said it put Portugal's long- and short-term credit ratings on watch.

The Dow fell by triple digits at Tuesday's open. But the market got a boost when the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence came in above forecasts.

"Clearly we're not seeing a complete breakdown, but cautiousness is definitely in the air," said Kenny Landgraf, principal and founder at Kenjol Capital Management.

"On the upside, the domestic market is much stronger than international markets," Landgraf added. "Europe concerns have really been prolonged, and it seems like new countries keep tacking on more worries."

Stocks ended lower Monday, although a late-session surge eased early losses.

* Only one of the PIIGS matters: Spain

Economy: The Conference Board's index of consumer confidence rose more than expected to 54.1 in November from a downwardly revised 49.9 in October. Economists expected the index to come in at 52.

The Case-Shiller index of home prices in 20 major U.S. markets brought bad news: Home prices fell 2% in the third quarter after mostly steady gains since early 2009. Economists expected prices to rise 1% in September, according to a consensus of economists by Briefing.com.

A measure of manufacturing in the Chicago area showed an unexpected uptick in the pace of activity this month. The Chicago PMI index ticked up to 62.5 in November from 60.6 in October. Economists expected a slight drop. Any index reading over 50 indicates expansion.

Late Tuesday, the co-chairmen of President Obama's debt panel said they will delay a vote on final recommendations until Friday. The panel will release a report Wednesday as originally scheduled.

World markets: Asian markets closed lower. The Shanghai Composite lost 1.6%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei dropped 1.9%.

European stocks ended mostly flat. Britain's FTSE 100 and the DAX in Germany were unchanged, but France's CAC 40 closed off by 0.8%.

Companies: Google's (GOOG, Fortune 500) stock ended down more than 4.5% after the European Commission said it will investigate whether the Internet search company violated antitrust rules. Search service providers allege that Google gives its own services preferential placement on searches.

News reports also said Google is looking to acquire the discount coupon retailer Groupon. The New York Times' DealBook blog reported Google may be bidding as much as $6 billion for Groupon.

* Video - The case for $6,000 gold

Currencies and commodities: The dollar was up against the pound and the euro, but it fell against the yen. Investors tend to move toward the dollar as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty.

Oil for January delivery fell $1.62 to settle at $84.11 a barrel.

Gold futures for January delivery rose $18 to settle at $1,384 an ounce.

Bonds: The price on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury rose, pushing the yield down to 2.80% from 2.82% late Monday.

Image

Image Yahoo! Finance - Market Update

4:30 pm : For the second straight session the stock market was down sharply before it slashed losses. This time, though, stocks failed to finish near their highs for the day.

Continued concern that the financial troubles of less fiscally responsible countries in the eurozone periphery could spill into the broader global financial system caused yield spreads on the debt of Spain, Portugal, and their ilk to widen. To little surprise, analysts at S&P announced late that they have put Portugal's ratings on Credit Watch with Negative implications.

In order to trim risk market participants dumped stocks in favor of traditional safe havens like the dollar and U.S. Treasuries. The dollar settled with a 0.6% gain against competing currencies, but Treasuries ultimately surrendered most of their gains.

The early push against stocks sent the S&P 500 down more than 1%. Prior session lows were probed near the 1174 line, but support at that point held so as to provide stocks with a floor for a rebound.

Losses were cut further following the latest Consumer Confidence Index, which improved in November to a five-month high of 54.1 from 49.9 in October. The Index had been widely expected to improve to a more moderate 52.0.

Stocks set their highs for the day after President Obama expressed that the White House is currently involved in efforts to extend unemployment benefits. Efforts to extend the Bush tax cuts are also broadly believed to be underway.

Still, the S&P 500 never did manage to push into positive territory. That failure invited some late selling.

Tech stocks had the most adverse impact on trade. The sector, which is the largest by market weight, suffered the worst loss of any sector with a 1.4% drop. Weakness in the tech space proved especially damaging to the Nasdaq, which trailed its counterparts for the entire day.

Tech was also one of the poorest performing sectors of November. For the month it fell 1.8%, which was enough to drag down the broad-based S&P 500 to a 0.2% loss for November after it had set a two-year high earlier in the month.

Telecom was the only major sector to muster a gain. It advanced just 0.1%. It still logged a 1.4% monthly loss.

Worth mention, though, is that the materials sector completely erased an early loss of more than 1% to finish flat today. That was helped by precious metals plays after gold prices finished pit trade up 1.3% at $1386.10 per ounce and silver settled gained 3.2% higher at $28.21 per ounce. Materials stocks collectively gained 0.9% in November.

End-of-the-month trade brought about an increase in trading volume, such that more than 1.5 billion shares were traded on the NYSE today. That makes for the biggest one-day total in two months.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.1)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-1.4%), Health Care (-0.8%), Financials (-0.7%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.3%), Energy (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.3%), Utilities (-0.1%)
Unchanged: MaterialsDJ30 -46.47 NASDAQ -26.99 NQ100 -1.3% R2K -0.7% SP400 -0.6% SP500 -7.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 857/2.32 bln/1784 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 994/1.53 bln/1948

3:30 pm : Commodities finished lower day, led by the 1.6% decline in energy. Jan crude oil dropped 1.9% to settle at $84.11 per barrel. A stronger dollar and weaker equities helped crude oil prices lower today. For the month of Nov, however, crude oil gained 3.3%. Jan natural gas had a rather uneventful session, closing lower by 0.4% to $4.19 per MMBtu.

Feb gold finished up 1.3% to $1386.10 per ounce, while March silver gained 3.2% to end at $28.21 per ounce. Both metals rallied on a flight to safety on worries about the widening debt problems in Europe. DJ30 -10.41 NASDAQ -20.18 SP500 -3.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 808/1.6 bln/1804 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1104/702.8 mln/1861

3:00 pm : Stocks are attempting to make a come back after falling under renewed selling pressure in the wake of a failed attempt to turn positive. The latest upturn has left only tech (-1.1%), health care (-0.6%), consumer staples (-0.2%), and financials (-0.2%) in the red.

Volatility remains elevated, however. In fact, the Volatility Index is up 7%. That puts it back near the highs that it set in the prior session, when it set a two-month high. DJ30 -10.67 NASDAQ -21.50 SP500 -3.17 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 771/1.47 bln/1827 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1084/633 mln/1858

2:30 pm : The broader market continues to pull back from the session high that it set little over an hour ago. Initially the decline was rather gradual, but selling has since accelerated.

Though the S&P 500 itself never managed to make a gain, the materials (+0.3%), telecom (+0.2%), and consumer discretionary (+0.1%) sectos are all in positive territory. In contrast, tech continues to display considerable weakness; the sector is down 1.2%. DJ30 -24.37 NASDAQ -25.89 SP500 -5.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 756/1.33 bln/1834 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 997/577 mln/1952

2:00 pm : The stock market has backed down since its failure to push into positive territory. Still, the tone of trade this afternoon remains markedly improved from that of this morning.

With little over a half billion shares already traded on the NYSE participation has been solid, but not by any means impressive. It is too early to determine whether December will likely be a month of increased share volume since some money managers may opt to sit on the sidelines in order to protect the gains that they have generated while others may look to exit their positions in order to book profits or lock in losses for tax purposes. DJ30 -2.23 NASDAQ -18.25 SP500 -1.98 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 872/1.20 bln/1696 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1177/520 mln/1745

1:30 pm : Stocks have pushed up from their recent trading range in the wake of comments from President Obama, who recently discussed in a press conference efforts to extend unemployment benefits, and seemed to suggest that efforts are also underway to extend the Bush tax cuts.

Despite the strong flurry of buying that followed Obama's comments, the S&P 500 has yet to push into positive ground. Still, it has come a long way since this session's opening minutes, when it was down more than 1% to test the prior session's low. DJ30 +3.90 NASDAQ -16.18 SP500 -0.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 881/1.12 bln/1662 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1231/480 mln/1686

1:00 pm : Continued contagion concerns caused stocks to start the session with steep losses. Pressure has since eased, but the overall tone of trade remains weak.

Weekend news that Ireland has secured a bailout has failed to quell concern over the health and stability of sovereign debt issued by countries in the eurozone periphery, where yield spreads and the cost of guarding against default continues to climb.

Fear that default in the eurozone would carry dire repercussions for the global financial system and the distribution of capital has made many market participants inclined to sell equities in favor of the dollar and yen -- the dollar is currently up 0.4% relative to a basket of competing currencies while the yen is actually up 0.8% against the greenback.

The stock market's opening slide took the S&P 500 down more than 1% to the prior session's low near the 1174 line, but support at that point helped stocks stage a nice rebound.

The early morning bounce was further helped by the November Consumer Confidence Index, which proved better-than-expected at 54.1.

Though many of the major sectors in the S&P 500 have managed to slash losses, tech stocks continue to hamper overall action. Tech, still down 1.2%, has also weighed heavily on the Nasdaq, which is still down about 1%.

Seagate Tech (STX 13.47, -0.39) is among the weaker names in the tech sector. The company announced that it has terminated discussions with private equity firms, but did authorized a plan to repurchase $2 billion of stock.

Just as it did in the prior session, materials stocks have managed to attract considerable support after a weak start. The sector is now up 0.4%, which makes it the best performing sector of the day. It had been down 1.2% at its session low. More impressive is that the sector's swing comes in the face of a stronger dollar. DJ30 -29.21 NASDAQ -23.97 SP500 -4.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 748/1.01 bln/1795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 957/430 mln/1956

12:30 pm : The stock market has been unable to build on its recent bounce. It has been left to chop along in negative territory.

Tech continues to hobble broader market action. The sector is down 1.2%. In addition to the outsized slide, which is more than that of any other major sector, tech's weight as the largest sector by market cap has only amplified its effect on overall action.

With stocks stuck in negative territory Treasuries have attracted strong support. As such, the benchmark 10-year Note is up 18 ticks and the 30-year Bond is up more than a full point. That has their yields at 2.76% and 4.07%, respectively. DJ30 -41.59 NASDAQ -26.26 SP500 -6.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 712/925 mln/1823 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 860/396 mln/2039

12:00 pm : A sudden spurt higher recently took the S&P 500 to its best level of the past hour. Though the move has been relatively modest, it has helped many of the major sectors trim losses. Despite that, the overall tone of trade is still weak as declining issues outnumber advancers by 3-to-1 in the S&P 500.

The dollar has pulled back from its morning levels, but it continues to sport a modest gain over competing currencies -- the Dollar Index is up 0.3% at the moment. The greenback's pullback comes amid the euro's rebound; the euro has just about halved its loss so that it is down 0.6% against the dollar. DJ30 -30.46 NASDAQ -24.54 SP500 -5.52 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 647/839 mln/1866 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 840/358 mln/2031

11:30 am : Semiconductor stocks have come under increased pressure in recent trade. That has them down 1.4% as a group.

Semiconductor-related plays have had a relatively strong year, however. More specifically, so far this year the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up more than 8% while the benchmark S&P 500 is up not quite 6%.

As an aside, the current price level of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has put it at a little more than 14x trailing earnings, which is much less than its five-year weekly average of 37x trailing earnings. DJ30 -51.27 NASDAQ -26.12 SP500 -7.50 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 598/718 mln/1874 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 749/310 mln/2115

11:00 am : The S&P 500 had halved its loss, but it has since reversed course so that it is now on the backslide. Telecom (+0.2%) remains the only major sector to put together any kind of a gain.

Tech stocks, which represent the biggest sector by market cap, are in the worst shape. Collectively, tech plays are down 1.0% at the moment. Apple (AAPL 312.80, -4.07) and Google (GOOG 565.99, -16.12) are a couple of the weakest performers in the space. That and their market weight have made them two of the most damaging issues within the tech sector. DJ30 -48.02 NASDAQ -22.66 SP500 -7.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 571/606 mln/1859 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 725/260 mln/2099

10:30 am : The dollar index is up for a third consecutive session, but this doesn't seem to phase some commodities such as crude oil and gold, which are higher since late last week.

On a percentage basis, commodities are modestly higher and lower this morning. The best performing commodity in the CRB Index is cotton futures, which are 1.5% higher, while natural gas is the worst performer and is 1.4% lower.

This morning, precious metals are trading higher, while the energy market is in the red. December gold rallied to a new session high of $1387.80 per ounce a couple of hours ago, while December silver pushed to its own fresh session high of $27.70 per ounce. Gold is now up 1.4% at $1386.60 per ounce and silver is 2.1% higher at $27.76 per ounce.

In the energy space, January crude oil has been in the red all session, showing modest losses. About an hour ago, it fell to new session lows of $84.63 per barrel, but has since rebounded notably and is currently 0.4% lower at $85.40 per barrel.

January natural gas fell into negative territory around 9:00am ET to new session lows of $4.13 per MMBtu, which were hit about an hour ago. Natural gas is still just above that level, now at $4.15 per MMBtu, down 1.4%.DJ30 -31.45 NASDAQ -17.19 SP500 -4.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 622/482.4 mln/1771 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 817/213.0 mln/1978

10:00 am : Stocks continue to cut into losses. The latest leg higher comes in response to news that the Consumer Confidence Index climbed to 54.1 for November after it had been at 49.9 in the prior month. Economists polled by Briefing.com had expected, on average, that the Index for November would come in at 52.0.

Advancing Sectors: Telecom (+0.4)
Declining Sectors: Tech (-1.0%), Energy (-0.9%), Health Care (-0.8%), Materials (-0.7%), Financials (-0.7%), Industrials (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.4%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.3%)DJ30 -51.69 NASDAQ -21.50 SP500 -7.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 500/306 mln/1823 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 642/145 mln/2097

09:45 am : Stocks are down sharply in the opening minutes of trade. Weakness is widespread as all 10 major sectors retreat into the red. Their downturn recently took the S&P 500 to the 1174 line, but support there has helped to stem the slide.

Of the major sectors, energy is in the worst shape. The sector had led a rally in the prior session that helped the broader market slash its loss, but today energy plays are collectively down 1.3%. It hasn't helped that oil prices are off by 0.6% at $85.20 per barrel.

Defensive-oriented telecom and utilities stocks have managed to limit their losses. The two sectors are down 0.1% and 0.4%, respectively. DJ30 -74.47 NASDAQ -29.67 SP500 -9.95 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 344/177 mln/1907 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 428/101 mln/2263

09:15 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -20.20. Stiff selling has stock futures down sharply, such that the major equity averages look like they will return to the lows of the prior session. The negative tone comes mostly as a consequence of ongoing concerns about the state of finances and health of sovereign debt among countries in the eurozone periphery. That concern has also stirred selling in the euro and buying in the dollar, which is up 0.6% to trade at its best level more than in two months against a basket of competing currencies. Premarket participants haven't paid much attention to news outside of the sovereign debt story since corporate announcements have not had any broad implication and data has been limited to a home price report that produced little real surprise. The November Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET) and the Consumer Confidence Index for November (10:00 AM ET) are on their way, though.

09:00 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -10.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -21.20. Stock futures remain at their morning lows after showing no real reaction to the latest home price data. The S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for September came in at 147.5, which is down slightly from the 148.6 that was posted for the prior month. The 20-city Composite slipped 0.8% month over month after it logged a 0.5% monthly decline for August.

08:30 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -11.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -22.20. Contagion concerns continue to drive selling, such that futures for the S&P 500 have tested the 1175 line, which is on level with the low of the prior session. Europe's major bourses are down with varied losses, though the euro has fallen 1.1% against the dollar as yield spreads widen among the debt issues of countries in the eurozone periphery. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.2%. BMW and Volkswagen have provided the leadership necessary to offset losses among Deutsche Post and Commerzbank. In France, the CAC has fallen 0.8%. BNP Paribas and Societe Generale have been the heaviest drags. ArcelorMittal (MT) has provided some support, though. Britain's FTSE is off by 0.4%. Banking issues Barclays (BCS) and Standard Charter have had the most detrimental impact on trade. As for data, the Gfk NOP United Kingdom Consumer Confidence Index declined to -21 for November. Eurozone unemployment for November increased to 10.1% from 10.0% in September.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei dove 1.9% as only seven of its 225 members posted gains. Fast Retailing was atop the list of losing issues. A stronger yen, which was last quoted 0.7% higher at 83.71 yen per dollar, exacerbated weakness. As for data, Japan's unemployment increased to 5.1% for October. The country's household consumption expenditures for October decreased 0.1% year-over-year and industrial production declined 1.8% month-over-month. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.7%. HSBC (HBC), CNOOC (CEO) and China Mobile led the slide. Industrial & Commercial Bank provided some support, however. The Shanghai Composite closed 1.6% lower after Industrial & Commercial Bank and China Life slid sharply. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by more than 6-to-1. PetroChina (PTR) was atop the short list of those that staged gains.

08:00 am : [BRIEFING.COM] S&P futures vs fair value: -7.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -16.00. Stocks slashed losses in the prior session, but sellers have since renewed their efforts in premarket action. That has left stock futures to trade markedly lower ahead of today's open. The weakened tone comes amid ongoing concern about the state of sovereign debt in Europe, even after a bailout for Ireland was announced. Such concern has dropped the euro 0.9% to the 1.30 per dollar mark. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are mixed after they had suffered losses in excess of 2% yesterday. Ongoing speculation about tighter monetary policy in China has added to selling interest. Asia's major averages all moved sharply lower in overnight trade. Today's docket brings the latest in S&P/CaseShiller home prices (9:00 AM ET), the Chicago PMI (9:45 AM ET), Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET). Corporate news has been generally inconsequential for the broader market.

07:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -1.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.40.

07:00 am : Nikkei...9937.04...-189.00...-1.90%. Hang Seng...23007.99...-158.20...-0.70%.

07:00 am : FTSE...5562.93...+12.00...+0.20%. DAX...6741.11...+42.90...+0.60%.

Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body/bar analysis)
Price Action Only Trading (no indicators)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader

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