Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.
Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=77&t=602
Quote:
Today's results are NO TRADES (see above #FuturesTrades log). On vacation (no trading) from Aug 23rd Mon - Aug 25th Tues. Then will only trade the first hour of trading on Aug 26th Thurs and Aug 27th Fri because I have personal appointments that includes getting the kids ready for their first week of school.
FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtraderIn addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).
WRB Analysis Tutorials @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm and there's a free study guide of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3 @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewforum.php?f=119. However, you must join the TSL Support Forum to access the free study guide. To register...click here. Volatility Trading Report (VTR) @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/VolatilityTrading.htm Daily Trade Routine @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=120&t=731------------------------------
Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.
Stocks Slump At The Close
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By Blake Ellis, staff reporter
August 23, 2010: 5:01 PM ET
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- U.S. stocks ended a choppy day of trading lower Monday, as a dismal economic outlook overshadowed earlier optimism fueled by takeover talk.
After starting the session sharply higher and seesawing throughout the day, the Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 39 points, or 0.4%, the S&P 500 (SPX) ticked down 4 points, or 0.4%, and the Nasdaq (COMP) composite dropped 20 points, or 0.9%.
It's been a rocky ride for Wall Street over the past couple of weeks, as investors have shifted their focus between positive company news and gloomy economic readings.
Disappointing reports on jobs, manufacturing and economic activity battered confidence last week, dragging the Dow and S&P lower for the second straight week.
5 investing bubbles
With little economic news on tap Monday, investors turned their attention to talk about takeover activity. But an early comeback failed to gain steam, ending in yet another down day for the three major indices.
"We're trying to reverse some of those losses," said Steven Goldman, a market strategist at Weeden & Co. "But since economic data has been showing gradual signs of weakness there's still an overshadowing concern that will likely keep any rally narrow and in a defensive tone."
Economy: No major economic releases were scheduled Monday, so investors were already looking ahead to the government's revised reading of GDP due Friday, said Dave Rovelli, managing director of U.S. equities at Canaccord Adams.
Stocks in for summer slip 'n' slide
Gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of the nation's economic activity, is forecast to be revised down to an annual rate of 1.4%, a significant drop from its previous reading of 2.4%.
"Everybody knows it's going to be revised down, so everybody is nervous and just waiting for that number," said Rovelli. "But because it's the last two weeks of August and stocks tend to drift higher when trading volume is so light, you may see the market start to rally until that GDP number comes out."
Last week, investors were hit with a slew of dismal indicators, including a report showing that weekly jobless claims surged to the highest level since November.
Companies: Hewlett-Packard put in a bid early Monday for data-storage company 3PAR, offering $1.6 billion, a 33.3% premium on the offer proposed by rival Dell last week. Shares of 3PAR (PAR) spiked nearly 45%, while Dell's (DELL, Fortune 500) stock slipped 1% and shares of HP (HP) fell 2%.
Shares of fertilizer producer Potash (POT) closed slightly higher after its board of directors told shareholders to reject a hostile takeover bid of $38 billion from mining company BHP Billiton (BHP), saying "superior offers or other alternatives are expected to emerge." Shares of BHP fell less than 1%.
The Gulf Coast Claims Facility, led by Kenneth Feinberg, will take over the BP oil spill claims process Monday. The claims will be paid using the $20 billion escrow account established by BP (BP). Shares of the oil company dipped less than 1%.
0:00 /2:04How to start investing
World markets: European shares closed higher. The CAC 40 in France rose 0.8%, Britain's FTSE 100 gained 0.8% and the DAX in Germany was up 0.1%.
Asian markets slipped. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index ended down 0.7%, the Hang Seng in Hong Kong fell 0.4% and the Shanghai Composite edged lower 0.1%.
Currencies and commodities: The dollar rose against the euro and the U.K. pound, but fell versus the Japanese yen.
Oil futures for October delivery slipped 72 cents to settle at $73.10 a barrel. Gold for December delivery edged down 30 cents to $1,228.50.
Bonds: Treasury prices were higher, and the yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.60% from 2.62% late Friday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite direction.
Market breadth: Market breadth was negative. On the New York Stock Exchange, losers outnumbered winners by two to one on volume of 865 million shares. On the Nasdaq, decliners beat advancers by nearly three to one on volume of 1.7 billion shares.
Yahoo! Finance
4:30 pm : More merger and acquisition activity boosted stocks at the beginning of the session, but technical resistance was quick to send the broader market back to the neutral line. Trade was then range bound until a late session slip left stocks to settle at their lows.
Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 39.04, -0.81) announced this morning that it will pay cash to acquire 3Par (PAR 26.09, +8.05) for $24 per share, which marks a 33% premium over the $18 per share that Dell (DELL 11.94, -0.13) had already offered to pay for 3Par. The preference for an all cash transaction suggests to some that HP believes its shares are undervalued.
Last week BHP Billiton (BHP 67.13, -0.31) offered to acquire Potash (POT 150.20, +0.53) for $130 per share, but Potash officially refused. Instead, the company is interested in alternative transactions with third parties.
Though nothing has been confirmed, Campbell Soup (CPB 36.90, +0.26) is reportedly interested in a unit of Britain's United Biscuits, while SABMiller is contemplating Aussie brewer Foster's.
All of the M&A activity, whether rumored or actual, was treated as a bullish sign as stocks climbed almost 1%. However, early participants showed their lack of conviction when the S&P 500 lost momentum upon hitting 1081, which marked the 50% retracement of its downturn from last week's intraday high to last week's intraday low.
Buyers never tried their efforts again and stocks were left to plod along the neutral line before slipping late in the session. The final leg down made for the stock market's lowest close in over one month.
Tech stocks fell 1.0%. Given that they make up almost 20% of the S&P 500's capitalization, they had the most adverse impact on trade. Tech's weakness was even more pronounced in the Nasdaq, which lagged its counterparts for the entire session.
Defensive-oriented utilities were strong. The sector finished with a 0.6% gain as multi-utilities advanced 0.8%.
The greenback booked a 0.2% gain as participants showed a preference for the currency once stocks in the broader market started to weaken. The dollar had actually been down in the early going.
Trading volume was unimpressive amid this session's lackluster action. For the seventh time in two weeks share volume on the NYSE failed to break 1 billion shares.
Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+0.6%), Health Care (+0.3%), Consumer Staples (+0.2%), Energy (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Industrials (-1.1%), Tech (-1.0%), Materials (-1.0%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Financials (-0.6%), Telecom (-0.1%)DJ30 -39.21 NASDAQ -20.13 NQ100 -1.0% R2K -1.3% SP400 -0.9% SP500 -4.33 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 673/1.71 bln/1937 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1105/864 mln/1889
3:30 pm : The CRB Commodity Index started the session modestly higher, but it settled with a 0.4% loss.
Most of the move lower stemmed from a downswing in oil prices. Oil prices had been almost as high as $74.50 per barrel before they settled pit trade with a 1.0% loss at $73.11 per barrel. Prices actually set a new one-month low of $72.75 per barrel prior to the close.
Natural gas prices gave up 1.1% to close at $4.07 per MMBtu. They spent the session between $4.03 and $4.13 per MMBtu.
Gold prices fell fractionally to close at $1228.60 per ounce, while silver settled 0.1% higher at $17.99 per ounce. Respectively, their highs were $1228.90 and $18.07 per ounce, while their lows were $1222.90 and $17.89 per ounce. DJ30 -8.40 NASDAQ -13.13 SP500 -1.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 852/1.35 bln/1733 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1369/590 mln/1606
3:00 pm : The stock market has failed to attract any additional support after breaking free from the narrow trading range that had restrained activity for the first part of the afternoon. In turn, the Dow and S&P 500 continue to drift along with modest gains and the Nasdaq remains mired in negative territory.
No major companies are scheduled to make announcements after this session's close and only a handful of names will post quarterly results tomorrow morning. With so few companies of consequence making headlines, market participants are focusing on the latest existing home sales numbers, which will be released midmorning tomorrow. Ahead of the report, the homebuilders ETF (XHB 14.17, -0.18) is under stiff pressure. DJ30 +19.07 NASDAQ -7.74 SP500 +1.71 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 957/1.22 bln/1632 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1527/530 mln/1447
2:30 pm : The S&P 500 spent three straight hours in a four-point range before it recently worked its way out of that range and up to an afternoon high. The subsequent gain has been modest, however.
Though the broader market has been restricted to a marginal gain, energy stocks are now up 1.0%. That puts them the among the best performers of the day -- only utilities, up 1.1%, are in better shape. DJ30 +31.06 NASDAQ -4.52 SP500 +2.87 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1024/1.14 bln/1542 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/488 mln/1376
2:00 pm : Stocks remain range bound. The steady sideways drift has made for some rather mundane trade on this slow moving Monday afternoon.
Trading volume is consistent with the low levels of recent weeks. Even on this past Friday's options-expiration session trading volume on the NYSE barely broke 1.1 billion shares. The expiration of options usually leads to a surge in volume to above-average levels, but total share count for that session was still shy of the stock market's 200-day average of nearly 1.2 billion shares. DJ30 +7.64 NASDAQ -9.22 SP500 +0.39 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 937/1.03 bln/1622 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1466/440 mln/1479
1:30 pm : The stock market continues to plod along the neutral line amid a lack of leadership. The tone has been mixed for the past few hours.
Treasuries have had a quiet session. A lack of interest there has left the benchmark 10-year Note (2.61%) to trade flat. The 30-year Bond (3.68%) is down a dozen ticks, though. DJ30 +12.64 NASDAQ -7.72 SP500 +1.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 993/964 mln/1543 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1541/406 mln/1393
1:00 pm : Stocks are mixed after a strong start ran into resistance near key retracement levels and buyers began to back away.
Merger and acquisition activity, both actual and speculated, was widely credited with this morning's opening bounce. Leading the list of news items was a proposal from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 39.07, -0.78) to acquire 3Par (PAR 25.66, -7.62) for $24 per share in cash. That offer marks a 33% premium over what Dell (DELL 11.90, -0.17) had offered to pay for 3Par.
Additionally, Potash (POT 151.84, +2.17) is interested in discussing alternative, third-party transactions since it rejected a bid from BHP Billiton (BHP 67.48, +0.04) to be acquired for $130 per share.
There have also been reports that Campbell Soup (CPB 37.04, +0.40) might make a move on a unit of Britain's United Biscuits, while SABMiller might add Australia's Foster's to its portfolio of global brewers.
Early strength took the stock market up almost 1% before the S&P 500 lost momentum near the 50% retracement of its downturn from last week's intraday high to last week's intraday low. Resistance in that zone led buyers to back away from the action.
The subsequent pullback coincided with a modest bounce by the greenback. The dollar had been down in the early going, but it is now up to a session high with a 0.2% gain.
There hasn't been any economic data of consequence today, but Kansas City Fed President Hoenig stated that he expects to see consolidation continue in the banking industry. Bank stocks are flat after collectively hitting a six-month low this past Friday.
Utilities stocks have been this session's best performers. The sector is up 0.9%, despite its stodgy, defensive oriented nature.
In contrast, tech stocks have underperformed. The sector is currently down 0.7%. DJ30 -6.93 NASDAQ -12.17 SP500 -0.61 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 942/899 mln/1586 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1441/370 mln/1478
12:30 pm : The S&P 500 and Dow have managed to poke back into positive territory, but that has yet to translate into anything material.
The dollar was down very modestly this morning, but it is now up to a slight gain of 0.1%. Most of the move has come at the expense of the euro, which is now down 0.3% against the greenback. DJ30 +9.31 NASDAQ -7.61 SP500 +1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1020/825 mln/1490 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1567/345 mln/1328
12:00 pm : The KBW Bank Index dropped to a new six-month low this past Friday, but rather than make any kind of a meaningful bounce it has only mustered a fractional gain. Ever since the start of August, the trend of the KBW has been one of lower intraday highs and lower intraday lows.
Members of the KBW are currently evenly split into advancers and decliners. Atop the list of advancing issues is Bank of America (BAC 12.98, +0.11), which has benefitted from an analyst upgrade, while Wells Fargo (WFC 24.38, -0.22) weighs on the overall group. DJ30 -14.76 NASDAQ -14.28 SP500 -1.21 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 813/730 mln/1670 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1307/310 mln/1590
11:30 am : All three major indices are in the red, but their slide has steadied so that they remain in-line with their session lows. The weakened state of trade hasn't come in response to any sort of negative news item, but rather the loss of support from buyers who initially thought that stocks were due for a bounce after falling almost 2% during the course of trade this past Thursday and Friday. Those losses were enough to give the stock market a weekly loss of almost 1%, which immediately followed a 3% weekly loss. DJ30 -15.52 NASDAQ -14.95 SP500 -1.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 779/651 mln/1686 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1221/274 mln/1654
11:00 am : The Nasdaq has dug its way deeper into negative territory, but the Dow and S&P 500 are at the neutral line as they try to fight off selling efforts.
Recent weakness stems largely from the tech sector, which is down 0.6% at the moment. Not only do tech stocks represent the worst performing sector, but they are also make up the largest sector by market weight. Hewlett-Packard (HPQ 38.68, -1.17) is one of the heaviest drags on the tech sector following news that it has attempted to outbid Dell (DELL 11.97, -0.10) with its offer to pay $24 in cash for each share of 3Par (PAR 25.42, +7.38). DJ30 -3.94 NASDAQ -10.22 SP500 -0.08 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 938/520 mln/1479 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1325/220 mln/1521
10:30 am : Stocks have extended their pullback. The downturn has actually taken the Nasdaq into the red after it was up almost 1% in the first half hour of trade.
The commodity picture is a bit mixed at the moment. That has the CRB Commodity Index just above the unchanged line.
Oil prices had been as high as $74.48 per barrel, but the commodity is now flat at $73.85 per barrel. Meanwhile, natural gas prices are down 1.2% to $4.07 per MMBtu.
Gold prices are down to morning lows of $1225.50 per ounce, which translates to a 0.1% loss. The yellow metal was up to almost $1229 per ounce earlier this morning. In the meantime, silver prices are unchanged at $18 per ounce after oscillating between $18.07 per ounce and $17.90 per ounce. DJ30 +36.85 NASDAQ -1.20 SP500 +4.19 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1307/376 mln/1046 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1836/164 mln/943
10:00 am : The S&P 500 has pulled back to the 1080 line, but overall gains remain strong.
Defensive-oriented utilities stocks are now the best performing sector in the broader market. As a group, they are up 1.2%. Electric utilities plays like Exelon (EXC 40.99, +0.58), Dominion Resources (D 44.59, +0.66), and American Electric (AEP 35.28, +0.46).
Financials and tech, up 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, are this morning's laggards. Together they make up more than one-third of the stock market's total capitalization.
Advancing Sectors: Utilities (+1.2%), Health Care (+1.1%), Energy (+1.0%), Telecom (+0.9%), Industrials (+0.8%), Consumer Staples (+0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.7%), Materials (+0.6%), Financials (+0.4%), Tech )+0.3%)
Declining Sectors: (None)DJ30 +71.59 NASDAQ +15.20 SP500 +8.32 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1647/207 mln/573 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 226/104 mln/534
09:45 am : Stocks are up solidly in the first few minutes of the session. This morning's advance paused as the S&P 500 came in contact with the 1080 line, but stocks have since regrouped to push even higher.
Health care stocks are out in front. The sector currently sports a 1.2% gain. Health care equipment plays (+1.3%), pharmaceutical plays (+1.2%), managed care providers (+1.1%), and biotech issues (+1.0%) have been key sources of support. DJ30 +84.08 NASDAQ +19.45 SP500 +9.57 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1727/138 mln/432 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2287/75 mln/426
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +9.00. Stock futures have drifted off of their morning highs, but a positive start still appears to be in order. Corporate headlines have been dominated by an increase in merger and acquisition activity, or at least rumored activity. Specifically, 3Par (PAR) has become the target of a bidding battle between Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and Dell (DELL). HP has proposed to pay $24 per share in cash for 3Par after Dell had already offered 3Par's shareholders $18 per share in cash. To some, the decision to make offer cash instead of stock suggests that companies believe cash is cheap and shares are undervalued. Meanwhile, the board of Potash (POT) officially rejected a $130 per share bid from BHP Billiton (BHP). News of the refusal has been accompanied by word that Potash has had contact with third parties interested in alternative transactions. There have also been reports that Campbell Soup (CPB) might offer $2.3 billion for the biscuit-making unit of Britain's United Biscuits, while SABMiller may have the Aussie brewer Foster's in its sight. No economic data is scheduled for today, but Kansas City Fed President Hoenig will speak at 10:30 AM ET.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +4.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +8.70. The dollar is currently down just 0.1% against a basket of competing currencies. Meanwhile, the yen is up about 0.5% against the greenback so that it trades at 85.2 yen per dollar. The yen was as high as 85.1 per dollar overnight. Commodities are up slightly this morning, such that the CRB Commodity Index currently trades with a 0.2% gain. Among the CRB's chief components, oil prices are up 0.6% to $74.30 per barrel in the first few minutes of pit trade. On Friday oil prices put in their lowest close in over a month.
08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.40. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +11.20.
Despite a lower-than-expected August PMI reading out of Germany, the country's DAX has made its way to a 0.5% gain. Technology plays are the strongest performers. They currently sport a 1.5% gain. Industrial stocks are lagging as they balance the neutral line. France's August PMI was better than expected. Broad gains have ensued with BNP Paribas and Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) providing leadership to the CAC, which is currently up 1.0%. Losses are relatively limited. In Britain, the FTSE has made its way to a 1.0% gain. Materials stocks, collectively up 1.9%, are in the best shape. Utilities trail with a gain of just 0.2%.
Stocks in Asia slid amid an absence of data. Specifically, Japan's Nikkei fell to a 0.7% loss. Telecom stocks dropped 1.6% and tech stocks dropped 1.4% to lead losses. The Japanese yen made its way back to 85.10 per dollar overnight, but it has since eased back to 85.20 yen per dollar. Renewed strength in the currency made for an added drag on shares of exporters. Oil and gas plays showed strength in the face of broader market weakness by putting together a 0.6% gain. Weakness in heavily capitalized energy plays like PetroChina (PTR) and China Petroleum (SNP) dragged down China's Shanghai Composite to a 0.1% loss, even though advancing issues actually outnumbered decliners. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng shed 0.4%. The brunt of selling hit basic materials stocks, which fell 1.3%. Utilities traded with strength, such that they settled with a 1.1% gain.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +13.50. Some relief from last week's near 1% loss looks to be in order as stock futures sport a solid lead over fair value. Their strength comes amid gains in Europe, where a lighter-than-expected eurozone PMI figure was released for August. Action in Asia was largely subdued overnight, but the yen made a move back to 85.10 per dollar. It has since eased back to 85.20 yen per dollar. No domestic data of major consequence is scheduled for release today and earnings announcements continue to dwindle. However, Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) has proposed to acquire 3Par (PAR) for $24 per share in cash. The offer price marks a 33% premium over the $18 per share cash bid that Dell (DELL) had already offered to 3Par.
06:20 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +5.00. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +10.00.
06:20 am : Nikkei...9116.69...-62.70...-0.70%. Hang Seng...20889.01...-92.80...-0.40%.
06:20 am : FTSE...5230.27...+35.00...+0.70%. DAX...6028.36...+23.30...+0.40%.
Special thanks to Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo! Finance for their market summaries.
Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader and http://stocktwits.com/wrbtrader Phone: +1.708.572.4885
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