Post subject: June 25th Friday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +10.00
Posted: Sat Jun 26, 2010 8:45 am
Joined: Sat Jan 10, 2009 1:06 pm Posts: 2805 Location: Canada
Trade Journal By M.A. Perry Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, this public trade journal contains useful trading tips a few times per week to encourage readers to return for more information and to help ensure I myself don't forget the importance of basic concepts within my own trading plan. Further, there are market summaries from Youtube Bloomberg, CNNMoney and Yahoo Finance as a quick archive of what happened in the markets on a particular day of trading. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips and market summaries that can improve your trading and/or understanding of what happen on a particular day that involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader.
Today's results are 8 wins : 6 losses : 2 breakevens (see above #FuturesTrades log). Tough trading day but only because I missed the entire a.m. trading session. Simply, when I begin my trading day in the p.m. trading session it takes a lot longer for me to understand the price action to prevent late entries, early entries or trade management problems after entry.
Trading Tip: Your trade signal strategy is just one piece of the puzzle in your trading plan. Simply, if you have a good trade signal strategy but a poor trading plan...there's a very good chance that you will not be a consistent profitable trader.
FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about any thing related to today's trading or related to your own trading.
In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Financial shares rallied Friday on relief that the new version of the Wall Street reform bill is less restrictive than had been expected, but the broader market was mixed at the end of a down week on Wall Street.
Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 9 points or 0.1%. The S&P 500 (SPX) gained 3 points or 0.3% and the Nasdaq (COMP) composite gained 6 points or 0.3%.
Stocks seesawed in the morning after economic growth in the first quarter was revised lower. Initially, investors showed little reaction to the news that lawmakers in the House and the Senate finalized negotiations on the most sweeping financial reform since the New Deal. But as the session wore on, the tone improved and the rally in bank shares spread to the broader market.
However, markets turned mixed near the close and trading volume amped up amid the impact of the annual rebalancing of the the Russell indexes. They include the Russell 1000 index of the largest American companies and the Russell 200 index of smaller companies.
Banks, techs, drugmakers and energy shares were among the gainers on the day, but some of the consumer product names stumbled, leaving markets mixed on the session. Blackberry maker Research in Motion (RIMM) lost nearly 11% in very active trading after it reported a rise in fiscal first-quarter revenue and earnings that disappointed investors on the revenue side.
Stocks lost ground this week after a two-week advance, as economic worries resurfaced after a brief reprieve. The market has been firmly in "correction" mode - down at least 10% from the highs - for over a month now.
The recent attempt to erase those losses petered out this week amid worse-than-expected reports on housing, manufacturing and on Friday, GDP. Golden parachute unlikely for Hayward
GDP: Economic growth in the first three months of the year progressed at a slower pace than originally reported, the government said Friday, with consumers spending less than originally thought.
GDP grew at a 2.7% annualized rate in the first quarter versus the previously reported 3%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com thought growth would hold steady at 3%.
In other economic news, the University of Michigan's final consumer sentiment index for June was revised up to 76 from the previous reading of 75.5. Economists thought it would hold steady, on average. The index stood at 73.6 in May.
Wall Street reform: After two weeks of negotiations following a year of work, lawmakers in Washington have combined two versions of a reform bill that will overhaul the financial system. The final bill won't be passed for a few days.
Proposed in the wake of the financial market meltdown, the bill's highlights include: the establishment of a consumer protection agency inside the Federal Reserve; mortgage help for the jobless; and the establishment of a council to look out for problems at major banks and throughout the financial system.
While most of the stock market was flat to lower, the financial sector rallied on relief that the part of the bill that regulates trading was not as strident as some had feared.
The government would be given the ability to regulate derivatives - complex securities that were used by speculators in a way that contributed to the collapse of the housing market. But the regulations are looser than initially proposed. Also, the government will be able to limit, but not stop, banks from making trades on their own accounts.
Financial shares rallied, with the KBW Bank (BKX) sector index adding 2.9%. Components Bank of America (BAC, Fortune 500), JPMorgan Chase (JPM, Fortune 500), Comerica (CMA) and PNC Financial Services Group (PNC, Fortune 500) were among the gainers. 0:00 /2:24Will this G-20 be remembered?
Currency: The euro inched higher versus the dollar but remained well above the four-year low of $1.188 hit last week. The dollar was down 0.3% versus the yen. The direction of the euro and the state of global debt are expected to be in focus at this weekend's G-20 meeting.
World markets: European markets slipped. Britain's FTSE 100 lost 1%, Germany's DAX gave back 0.7% and France's CAC 40 fell 1%.
Asian markets slipped. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.2% and China's Shanghai Composite lost 0.5%.
Commodities: U.S. light crude oil for August delivery rose $2.11 to $78.62 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
COMEX gold for August delivery gained $10.60 to $1,256.70 an ounce after closing at a record $1,258.30 last Friday.
Bonds: Treasury prices rallied, lowering the yield on the 10-year note to 3.11% from 3.12% late Thursday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.
Market breadth: Market breadth was positive and volume was robust because of the rebalancing. On the New York Stock Exchange, winners beat losers seven to three on volume of 2.56 billion shares. On the Nasdaq, advancers topped decliners two to one on volume of 5.14 billion shares.
4:30 pm : A finalized financial reform bill drove banks and a bevy of other financial services firms sharply higher Friday, but the broader market had to fight for even a modest gain.
The House and Senate reached an agreement on financial regulation this morning. The bill, which is expected to be passed in coming weeks, will prohibit banks from making risky bets with their own money, but some will still be able to participate in hedge funds and private equity funds. Though there are still some uncertainties related to the bill's implications, its finalization removes an overhang from the financial sector. Diversified financial services spiked 3.4%, investment banks and brokerages bounced 3.1%, and specialized finance stocks climbed 3.0%. The overall financial sector settled with a 2.8% gain, which was twice the 1.4% gain of the next best performing sector -- materials.
The materials sector was led by strength in gold and silver stocks like Newmont Mining (NEM 61.67, +2.72) and diversified metals plays like Freeport McMoRan (FCX 66.57, +3.13). Their gains came partly in response to a pullback by the greenback, which fell to a 0.5% loss against competing currencies.
The dollar's decline and the euro's resulting climb also coincided with an afternoon advance by the broader market, but the move proved difficult to sustain as stocks chopped lower into the close. Still, stocks were able to settle with a modest gain that snapped their recent losing streak at four sessions.
While the broader market saw mixed interest, small caps in the Russell 2000 spiked 1.9% ahead of the annual reconstitution of the Russell indices. The rebalancing occurs after the close, but preparation for the change stoked trading volume.
The latest in economic data and corporate headlines seemed to have little lasting impact on the overall mood of market participants this session.
The final GDP reading for the first quarter showed that the overall economy grew at a slower-than-expected rate of 2.7% from January through March. Meanwhile, personal consumption growth increased at a softer-than-expected rate of 3.0% and core personal consumption expenditures made a 0.7% increase, which is slightly stronger than many had anticipated.
Traders also got their hands on the final Consumer Sentiment Survey for June from the University of Michigan. It improved slightly to 76.0, which represents the best reading since January 2008.
Oracle (ORCL 22.60, +0.38) was one of the more widely held companies to recently report quarterly results. The company's earnings topped what Wall Street had expected. The company also issued solid guidance.
Research In Motion (RIMM 53.26, -5.32) also brought in a better-than-expected bottom line, but that was overshadowed by a relatively mixed forecast. Shares of RIMM plummeted to a fresh 52-week low in their worst single-session percentage drop in roughly nine months.
3:30 pm : Commodities gained 1.5% this session as weakness in the dollar boosted an initial bid.
Energy was especially strong. It rose 2.9% this session and closed near session highs. August crude oil hit highs not seen since Tuesday; it closed 3.1% higher at $78.83 per ounce. Natural gas climbed 2.5% to $4.87 per MMBtu.
Silver saw a boost as the dollar broke down mid-day. It closed 1.7% higher at 19.06 per ounce. Gold traded moderately higher in the morning and then flat for the reminder of the session. It closed 0.7% higher at $1254.60 per ounce. DJ30 +1.40 NASDAQ +10.29 SP500 +0.5 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1820/1.66 bln/795 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2222/833 mln/772
3:00 pm : Sideways trade has stocks heading into the final hour of Friday's trade with a week-to-date loss of more than 3%. That puts the stock market on track for its worst weekly performance since the week ended May 21, when the S&P 500 gave up more than 4%.
Trading volume has been unimpressive this session. Given the current pace of trade it might seem unlikely that share volume on the NYSE will exceed 1 billion shares this session, but activity ordinarily heats up in the final hour of trade. That may be even more so today since the annual reconstitution of the Russell 2000 occurs after the close. DJ30 +22.60 NASDAQ +14.31 SP500 +7.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1874/1.49 bln/726 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2309/739 mln/681
2:30 pm : Unable to extend its advance, the stock market is stuck near the highs that it set roughly one hour ago. Financials continue to climb, though. In turn, the financial sector is now up nearly 3%, which makes for its best single-session percentage gain in two weeks.
Volatility continues to cool, such that the Volatility Index is now down more than 5%. The VIX is still up more than 17% for the week, though. DJ30 +33.56 NASDAQ +16.57 SP500 +8.24 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1833/1.39 bln/744 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2274/688 mln/702
2:00 pm : Stocks have eased off of their session highs, but gains remain impressive, especially in light of the lackluster action that dominated the first several hours of trade.
Financials continue to boast the best gains. The sector is now up 2.6%, which is almost twice as much as the next best performing sector (materials, +1.4%).
As was the case, telecom stocks continue to trail. The sector is down 0.5%. DJ30 +34.62 NASDAQ +18.75 SP500 +8.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1851/1.28 bln/711 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2285/625 mln/690
1:30 pm : Stocks have worked their way to session highs amid another pullback in the dollar, which is now at a session low with a 0.5% loss against a basket of major foreign currencies.
Despite the recent flurry of buying, the Dow continues to lag its counterparts. It has been weighed down by weakness in shares of Coca-Cola (KO 51.04, -0.76), Procter & Gamble (PG 60.39, -0.48), and Exxon Mobil (XOM 59.50, -0.57).
Volatility has cooled, such that the Volatility Index is now down more than 2%. It had been up more than 1% earlier this morning. DJ30 +27.66 NASDAQ +14.85 SP500 +7.01 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1802/1.14 bln/746 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 2185/557 mln/771
1:05 pm : A positive reaction to the financial reform bill has helped financials trade with strength for the entire session, but the broader market has spent the better of the day stuck in choppy trade.
Banks and financial services stocks have displayed strength for the entire session. Their strength follows the finalization of the financial reform bill, which will prohibit banks from making risky bets with their own money, but allows room for some firms to participate in hedge funds and private equity funds. The bill is expected to be passed in coming weeks and removes an element of uncertainty for the sector, but there are still uncertainties about its implications.
Market participants showed a brief negative reaction to the final GDP reading for the first quarter. It showed that the economy grew at a slower-than-expected rate of 2.7% in the first quarter. Personal consumption growth was also revised downward to reflect a softer-than-expected increase of 3.0%. One positive from the report was an upwardly revised 0.7% increase in core personal consumption expenditures.
The GDP report had little lasting effect on the mood of the market, but stocks did see some buying interest surface after the final June Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan came in at a slightly improved 76.0, which is not only above the 75.5 that many had anticipated but it is also the best reading since January 2008.
In earnings news, Oracle (ORCL 22.90, +0.68) posted an upside surprise for the latest quarter and issued solid guidance. However, Research In Motion (RIMM 53.26, -5.32) issued a relatively mixed outlook that overshadowed an upside surprise of its own. The contrast in the reports has left the tech sector, which is the largest by market weight, mired with moderate weakness.
The broader market's inability, or unwillingness, to be inspired by the financial sector's 1.5% gain has made for mixed action overall this session. In turn, the stock market continues to chop along. The directionless trade makes it uncertain whether stocks will log their fifth straight loss, which would make for the stock market's longest losing streak of 2010.
While action in the broader market remains lackluster, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is up a sharp 1.1%. Its strength comes ahead of the annual reconstitution of the Russell averages after the close. DJ30 -9.97 NASDAQ +6.54 SP500 +2.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1722/1.05 bln/814 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1956/506 mln/972
12:30 pm : The stock market is up modestly at the moment, but its gain appears tenuous given that underlying action in the broader market is mixed. Nonetheless, the financial sector is still a strong source of support with its 1.4% gain.
Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index is up a sharp 1.1%. Its strength comes ahead of the annual reconstitution of the Russell averages after the close. DJ30 -14.13 NASDAQ +7.35 SP500 +2.30 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1697/935 mln/804 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1930/452 mln/970
12:00 pm : Though overall action remains choppy, stocks recently benefited from a sudden bid that put the S&P 500 just over the flat line into positive ground. There wasn't any immediate news item to account for the bounce, but it did coincide with a pullback by the greenback to a 0.2% loss, which puts it at a session low. The dollar is down only fractionally week-to-date.
The dollar's dip appears to have had an even more positive impact on commodities. Specifically, the CRB Commodity Indes is now up 1.1% to a session high as oil prices are pushed to a 2.0% gain at $75.55 per barrel. DJ30 -24.56 NASDAQ +1.37 SP500 +0.38 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1556/824 mln/905 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1766/402 mln/1092
11:30 am : Telecom stocks are having a tough time this session. The sector has sunk to a 1.2% loss, which makes it the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. The sharp slide comes after telecom had outperformed during the recent sessions. In fact, telecom stocks had limited their losses to 1.5% for the four session's leading up to today's open, while every other sector had shed 2% or more during that time. DJ30 -43.23 NASDAQ -3.32 SP500 -1.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/699 mln/968 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1619/350 mln/1212
11:00 am : Stocks just dropped to fresh session lows amid a sudden flurry of selling. The move has caused the Volatility Index to make a sudden spike. Despite that spike, the VIX is only up 1.5% for the session.
This session's selling effort has been broad based, similar to those of recent sessions. Should this sessin's pessimism persist, stocks will log their fifth straight loss. That would be the stock market's longest losing streak of 2010. DJ30 -54.26 NASDAQ -8.34 SP500 -4.74 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1283/586 mln/1113 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1401/295 mln/1383
10:35 am : After moving into positive territory 3-4 hours ago due to a pullback in the US Dollar Index, the energy and precious metals complex have continued to trade in positive territory.
August crude oil traded in the red for the majority of the overnight session. Around 5:00am ET, crude hitting session lows of $75.90, but has rallied from there, eventually hitting fresh session highs of $77.58 near the open of pit trading. In current action, crude is trading just under those lows, up 0.8% at $77.15 per barrel.
July natural gas rallied into positive territory over three hours ago, hitting today's current highs of $4.85 per MMBtu just before 10:00am ET. Natural gas has since pulled back, giving back a small portion of its current gains on the day and is currently trading 1.4% higher at $4.82 per MMBtu.
August gold and July silver rallied earlier due to weakness in the dollar index and have continued to show strength ever since, after the S&P 500 sold off in the last 15-20 back near the unchanged line. Gold hit session highs of $1258.00 per ounce, while silver hit today's highs of $18.95 per ounce. Currently, both commodities are trading just below those levels, gold at $1255.50 up 0.7% and silver 0.7% higher at $18.87 per ounce. DJ30 -23.27 NASDAQ -3.41 SP500 -1.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1288/425.6 mln/1030 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1464/217.8 mln/1258
10:00 am : The final reading on the June Consumer Sentiment Survey from the University of Michigan came in at a slightly improved 76.0, which is above the 75.5 that many had anticipated and also the best reading since January 2008.
Stocks have made a modest bounce in the wake of the data, but overall action remains rather uninspiring.
09:45 am : The stock market is chopping along the neutral line at the moment. The directionless trade comes despite considerable strength in the financial sector, which has sprinted out to a 1.2% gain in the wake of finalized financial regulatory reform.
The other major sectors are down with moderate losses.
Commodities have attracted interest this morning. In turn, the CRB Commodity Index is up 0.4% -- oil, natural gas, gold, and silver prices are all higher. DJ30 -20.55 NASDAQ -6.13 SP500 -0.53 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1152/141 mln/986 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1223/88 mln/1331
09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.60. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.80. The broader market appears poised for a slightly higher start after it had been undermined in earlier action by a disappointing final reading on first quarter GDP. Pockets of strength are seen among bank stocks, which have benefited from a positive reaction to the finalized financial reform bill. Among tech plays, Oracle (ORCL) is strong after it posted an upside surprise for the latest quarter and issued solid guidance. However, Research In Motion (RIMM) is under sharp pressure after it reported an upside surprise of its own, but issued a relatively mixed outlook.
Overseas action had any positive influence from a sentiment standpoint -- Europe's major bourses are all in the red at the moment and Asia's major market averages already succumbed to selling in their final session of the week.
Traders should also take note that today is the annual rebalancing of the Russell indices, an event that could lead to heightened volume and volatility on what would otherwise be a slow, end-of-week summer session.
Market participants get their hands on the final Consumer Sentiment Survey for June from the University of Michigan at 9:55 AM ET.
09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.00. Futures for the S&P 500 are stuck near the neutral line, while overseas action remains weak. Specifically, Germany's DAX is down 0.7% at the moment. Weakness is broad based, but Daimler (DAI) and Volkswagen are a couple of key laggards. Commerzbank has bounced back from its recent fit of weakness to sport a 1% gain, though. Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Credit Agricole have provided support to France's CAC, but weakness among the likes of Total (TOT), GDF Suez, and ArcelorMittal (MT) have dragged the French index to a 0.7% loss. In Britain, the FTSE is off by 0.4%. Oil and gas stocks, down 2.3%, have had the most detrimental effect on trade as BP Plc (BP) catches another beating. Telecom plays are strong, though; they are up 1.5% as a group.
Sellers controlled action in Asia overnight. Their efforts were largely influenced by the late slide that sank stocks on Wall Street during the prior session. Japan's Nikkei fell 1.9% as declining issues outnumbered its advancers by almost 10-to-1. Weakness was exacerbated by a stronger yet. Downgrades in the tech sector didn't help - tech stocks dropped 3.8%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng settled 0.2%. Tech stocks actually traded with strength there. The tech sector's 2.2% gain helped offset weakness in materials stocks (-1.9%) and consumer discretionary stocks (-0.9%). China's Shanghai Composite shed 0.5% amid broad-based weakness. It settled just above the critical support level of 2500. PetroChina (PTR) was a primary drag on trade.
08:35 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.50. Stock futures recently made a sudden retreat in response to some disappointing data, but their slide appears to have steadied for now. The final GDP reading for the first quarter showed that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.7% from January through March. Many had expected growth to remain at 3.0%. Personal consumption growth for the quarter was revised lower to 3.0%, but that is below the 3.5% growth rate that had been expected. However, core personal consumption expenditures increased 0.7%, which is more than the 0.6% increase that had been expected.
08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +3.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.00. Stock futures are up modestly following news that the Senate and House delivered an agreement on financial regulation. Reports indicate that the finalized bill prohibits banks from risky bets with their own money, as expected, but financial services companies won't be completely barred from hedge funds and private equity funds. Highly regarded analyst Dick Bove stated in an interview on CNBC that the bill will not hurt banks and that he would buy their shares. US Bank (USB), PNC Financial (PNC), Comerica (CMA), and Fifth Third (FITB) were among those he mentioned specifically.
There's also been a handful of quarterly reports from some widely-held companies. Oracle (ORCL) announced better-than-expected earnings and issued guidance that allows for a narrow beat over the current consensus. Research In Motion (RIMM) posted an upside surprise of its own and issued upside earnings guidance, even though its revenue outlook was in-line with expectations. Accenture (ACN) posted better-than-expected earnings, but it issued downside guidance.
Economic data for the day features the final reading on first quarter GDP (8:30 AM ET) and the final consumer confidence reading from the University of Michigan (9:55 AM ET).
06:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +1.00.
06:45 am : Nikkei...9737.48...-190.90...-1.90%. Hang Seng...20690.79...-42.70...-0.20%.
06:45 am : FTSE...5067.25...-33.00...-0.70%. DAX...6070.91...-44.50...-0.70%.
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