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Posted by M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of
WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
------------------------
Session Start: Fri Jan 08 09:29:16 2010
Session Ident: #futurestrades
[09:29] * Now talking in #futurestrades
[09:29] <@X> [NihabaAshi] Announcement: The new trade posting script v3.7 (replaces v3.6) is posted at your forum in the "Announcements" thread.
[09:29] <rickf>
all
[09:29] <drt>
[09:30] <@wrbtrader> Good morning all.
[09:31] <pat255>
[09:31] <@wrbtrader> As I stated on Jan 6th Weds...we were setting up for good volatility and a strong directional price action...
[09:32] <@wrbtrader> Yesterday we got the first signs via the volatility increasing...today we've got the strong directional price movement.
[09:32] <@wrbtrader> Unfortunatley the strong price movement happen BEFORE the regular trading session of 0930am est
[09:32] <@wrbtrader> Thus, I hope there's more steam in the market.
[09:34] <@wrbtrader> Anybody watch the Eurex BUND or Treasury Futures this morning...a big wow.
[09:34] <Forex2stay> yes..was watching and trading it
[09:34] <+Forex2stay> NFP blew the socks off it
[09:34] <+rickf> nope
[09:36] <jbuch> Long ES @ 1135
[09:36] <pdays> Long TF @ 638.7
[09:36] <@wrbtrader> Forex2stay...hope you made some good money because it was a strong directional price movement.
[09:36] <+pdays> Exited all TF Long @ 639.0 --> + 0.3
[09:37] <+rickf> short es 1135.25
[09:38] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1134.75 --> - 0.25
[09:38] <+Forex2stay> Yes, no as much as i should....but hindsight is a beutiful thing
[09:39] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1133.50 -> large size
[09:39] <@wrbtrader> 9 only
[09:39] <@wrbtrader> Volatility rising fast
[09:39] <@wrbtrader> lets see if it last
[09:40] <@wrbtrader> That 1132 level has been a good pivot recently
[09:40] <+rickf> exit es 1133 +2.25
[09:40] <@wrbtrader> That's my initial profit target on this trade
[09:40] <+pat255> vn
[09:41] <+rickf> ty - was an 'instinct' trade
[09:41] <@wrbtrader> volatility now losing it's steam
[09:43] <@wrbtrader>
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> punks
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1130.00 --> + 3.5
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> ooops
[09:43] <+rickf> vn
[09:43] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1133.00 --> + 0.5
[09:43] <+rickf> kinda nice
[09:44] <@wrbtrader> well...I had a exit stop at 1131.75
[09:44] <@wrbtrader> Price action hit a wall at that 1132 level
[09:44] <@wrbtrader> Then it bounced up quickly and easily stole my trailing stop
[09:44] <+rickf> ;(
[09:45] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1133
[09:46] <Nesi> hi all
[09:47] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1133.5 --> - 0.5
[09:47] <+Forex2stay> Shorts EURUSD @ 1.4367
[09:47] <@wrbtrader> support developed
[09:48] <+Forex2stay> counter trend so small size
[09:48] <+Forex2stay> SL moved to BE...moving fast
[09:50] <+Forex2stay> Covered 1/2 EURUSD Short @ 1.4347 --> + 0.002
[09:51] <+pat255> vn
[09:51] <+Forex2stay> BE on remainder...some slippage there on close
[09:51] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1134
[09:52] <+Forex2stay> next target 1.4335
[09:54] <+Forex2stay> Covered Remainder EURUSD Short @ 1.4338 --> + 0.0029
[09:54] <+Forex2stay> Flat
[09:54] <+pat255> wtg
[09:54] <+Forex2stay> ty pat
[09:54] <+rickf> vn
[09:56] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1133.5 --> - 0.5
[09:56] <werner>
all
[09:56] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1133.25 -> small size
[09:56] <@wrbtrader> 3 only
[09:57] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1134.25 --> - 1
[09:57] <@wrbtrader> That went 2 ticks against me as soon as I entered
[09:57] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1134 -> large size
[09:57] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1135.00 -> large size
[09:58] <@wrbtrader> 6 only
[09:58] <@wrbtrader> Increasing volatility again
[09:59] <@wrbtrader> prior 3 contract position trade was because it was within "contracting volatility".
[09:59] <+pat255> good read missed it
[10:01] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1137.00 --> + 2
[10:01] <+rickf> nice
[10:01] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.5 --> + 2.5
[10:01] <+rickf> wholesale trade news at 10
[10:01] <+rickf> vn
[10:02] <+jbuch> thanks
[10:02] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD testing 1.4335 area again
[10:02] <@wrbtrader> Yeah...they ran it up before the release of the 1000am est Wholesale Trade Report
[10:02] <+rickf> is out i think
[10:02] <+jbuch> tough holding on with a larger position size
[10:03] <+Forex2stay> Wholesale -1.5%
[10:03] <+Forex2stay> sorry 1.5%
[10:03] <+Forex2stay> Previous was also revised to .6% for .3%
[10:04] <+Forex2stay> EU 1.4335 broken to downside
[10:04] <+Forex2stay> lets see if its a trap
[10:06] <+rickf> gut thinks yes ... but what do i know
[10:06] <+Forex2stay> pullback test now
[10:08] <+Forex2stay> Sell stop 1.4324
[10:09] <+Forex2stay> if this 5m candle turns bearish might go fast
[10:09] <@wrbtrader> Here are my most recent "tweets" on twitter...
[10:09] <@wrbtrader>
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader/status/7521198622[10:09] <@wrbtrader>
http://twitter.com/wrbtrader/status/7521216456[10:10] <+pat255> forex u S eur?
[10:10] <+werner> yes i have seen them
[10:10] <+rickf> how u liking twitter wrbtrader ... i tried it, but found there a ton of RTing that made it far too noisy for me
[10:10] <+Forex2stay> no...Sell stop order in place
[10:10] <@wrbtrader>
[10:10] * codehead_afk is now known as codehead
[10:10] <+Forex2stay> stop hit
[10:10] <+Forex2stay> Shorts EURUSD @ 1.4324
[10:11] <+werner> i am kadtje on twitter wrbtrader
[10:11] <@wrbtrader> Ahh...cool
[10:11] <+Forex2stay> SL BE
[10:12] <+rickf> i am potomactrader
[10:12] <@wrbtrader>
[10:12] <+Forex2stay> Covered 1/2 EURUSD Short @ 1.4303 --> + 0.0021
[10:12] <+werner> ok thnx rickf
[10:12] <+rickf> not that it matters, i have stopped monitoring twitter a few weeks ago lol
[10:12] <+Forex2stay> BE on remainder
[10:12] <+rickf> nice froex
[10:12] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.5
[10:12] <+Forex2stay> ty
[10:12] <+jbuch> 1 only
[10:13] <@wrbtrader> Odd question...any 3D charting programs out there
[10:14] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.25 --> - 0.25
[10:14] <+rickf> i recall seeing ads for one a few years ago in a trading mag, but dont recall what it was calle -- will try to remember it if i can
[10:15] <@wrbtrader> I saw one once many years ago (it looked great) but the company went out of business because nobody was interested in it.
[10:15] <+rickf> wasn't for futures tho as i recall ... think it was for stock daytrading only
[10:15] <@wrbtrader> they also had heat maps and stuff along that lines.
[10:15] <+rickf> had volume 'skyscrapers' that were like heat maps to show activity
[10:16] <+rickf> you could 'fly' around them too to find trades, which i thought kinda neat but corny
[10:16] <@wrbtrader>
[10:16] <+Forex2stay> set limit on remainder near LOD 1.4270, and SL at BE on remainder
[10:16] <+Forex2stay> bbiab
[10:22] <+jbuch> messy
[10:23] <+rickf> looking to short es around 1138.50
[10:25] <+werner> yes yesterdays hod
[10:26] <+jbuch> nice wedge on TF forming
[10:27] <+werner> yep
[10:27] <+rickf> actually did not note that
[10:27] <+rickf> but neat to know
[10:27] <+Forex2stay> Covered Remainder EURUSD Short @ 1.4324 --> 0
[10:27] <+werner> lol
[10:27] <+Forex2stay> BE hit...FLAT now
[10:28] <+jbuch> nice trading forex thanks for sharing
[10:29] <+Forex2stay> ty jb
[10:33] <+jbuch> if we had not broken above 37 and then failed I would be trying to go long
[10:33] <+jbuch> but that confuses me
[10:34] <+rickf>
... gym
[10:34] <@wrbtrader> I keep seeing the "NFP" commentary online...what does it mean
[10:35] <@wrbtrader> For example...
[10:35] <@wrbtrader> "Selloff on news - couldn't break yesterdays low on NFP with 10% u/e rate and higher 85k payrolls - seems like strength to me."
[10:35] <+jbuch> hmm no idea
[10:36] <+jbuch> goggled it came up with natural family planning
[10:36] <@wrbtrader>
[10:37] <@wrbtrader> Here's another example...
[10:37] <@wrbtrader> "Ok thanks have a good NFP."
[10:38] <+jbuch> found the first quote u posted
[10:38] <@wrbtrader> In fact, I've seen traders use the "NFP" a lot last year.
[10:38] <@wrbtrader> Yeah...it was posted by MPConvert
[10:38] <@wrbtrader> on twitter
[10:39] <@wrbtrader> Prior to last year...NFP meant Non-Farm Payroll
[10:39] <+jbuch> JUST FOUND 1 IN REFERANCE TO NON FARM PAYROLL
[10:43] <+jbuch> your first quote I think NFP means non farm
[10:43] <+jbuch> the second no comprende
[10:49] <+Forex2stay> EU testing 1.4335 area again
[10:50] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[10:53] <+Forex2stay> EU price range is at 152 pips today, which is a little above average
[10:58] <+Forex2stay> 1.4335 on EURUSD holds
[10:59] <+Forex2stay> but no setup for me to trade it..Simply i'm over my profit mark today/week, so will be selective for remainder of my trading day, which is typically 13hr EST.
[11:01] <+pat255> vn forex
[11:06] <+Forex2stay> btw the 5m NFP candle on EURUSD was 92 pips.
[11:07] <+Forex2stay> crazy move
[11:07] <+pat255> NFP?
[11:07] <@wrbtrader> Yeah...what is that NFP
[11:07] <+jbuch> non farm payroll
[11:07] <+Forex2stay> lol
[11:07] <+pat255> k
[11:07] <+Forex2stay> i guess now it is called Non-Farm Employment
[11:08] <@wrbtrader> Another topic...someone recently asked me to explain why I also monitor SPY while trading Emini ES...
[11:09] <@wrbtrader> Best way to explain is via a chart example...I'm post a direct link to it in a minute.
[11:09] <+Forex2stay> k..cause i'm also interested in this, because i've been told the price action is the same however you can trade smaller with SPY...is that true?
[11:10] <+jbuch> yes
[11:10] <+Forex2stay> EU 1.4335 broken to upside
[11:10] <+jbuch> 500 spy per 1 ES contract
[11:10] <+Forex2stay> wow
[11:10] <+Forex2stay> what is the $ tick move on SPY?
[11:10] <+Forex2stay> is that correct question?
[11:11] <+Forex2stay> or what is the lowest dollar move?
[11:11] <+jbuch> spy is almost identical but I watch it as well because it has looser boundries.
[11:11] <+jbuch> 1 cent per tick
[11:11] <+Forex2stay> how is the volume?
[11:11] <+jbuch> basically 10 cents on spy = 1 point on es
[11:12] <+jbuch> huge huge vol
[11:12] <+jbuch> I think that it is the most heavily traded thing out there other than FX
[11:13] <+Forex2stay> Buy Stop set on EURUSD 1.4345...small size
[11:15] <+Forex2stay> Long EURUSD @ 1.4345
[11:15] <+Forex2stay> SL 1.4330
[11:16] <+Forex2stay> TP1 1.4365
[11:17] <+Forex2stay> momentum left
[11:23] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1137.25
[11:24] <+jbuch> tick fading like a champ
[11:27] <@wrbtrader> Ok...here's that chart of Emini ES side by side with the Exchange Traded Fund SPY.
[11:27] <@wrbtrader>
http://chart.ly/2fg5qt[11:28] <@wrbtrader> If you're into Japanese Candlesticks, pivot point analysis, s/r levels or zones et cetera...
[11:28] <@wrbtrader> The two can be slightly different although the price action is highly correlated.
[11:29] <@wrbtrader> Simply, you can use the information in one to help trade the other if the other is different.
[11:31] <@wrbtrader> However, even if you don't use that stuff...
[11:32] <@wrbtrader> Visually, the SPY provides more information about the price action.
[11:32] <+Forex2stay> ty wrbtrader
[11:32] <+Nesi> thanks a lot, wrbtrader
[11:32] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.5 --> - 0.75
[11:33] <@wrbtrader> That's why when I use SPY with the Emini ES...I "often" see something in the SPY that I don't see in the Emini ES.
[11:33] <+Forex2stay> EU price action died
[11:34] <+Forex2stay> going to let this trade ride, simply being up on the day the risk is worth catching a runner...if i was not up today or this was my first entry i would look to close.
[11:46] <+Forex2stay> come on pop already
[11:48] <@wrbtrader> Long ES @ 1136.50 -> small size
[11:48] <@wrbtrader> 2 only
[11:49] <@wrbtrader> Entry signal @ 1135.75 but had a distraction at home.
[11:50] <@wrbtrader> I'll use that price as my stop.
[11:50] <+Forex2stay> i feel u wrbtrader, my kids are home from school today...luckily they
late
[11:51] <@wrbtrader> Yeah...last month my only losses occurred on trading days my mother-in law came to visit spouse and kids
[11:51] <+Forex2stay> yes mother-in = stress
[11:51] <@wrbtrader> big stress for me
[11:52] <+Forex2stay> lol
[11:54] <+Forex2stay> if this EU 5m bearish bar turns out to be a fake and takes out previous bar high we could get another little run...if not ride might be over
[11:58] <+rickf> back
[11:58] <+Forex2stay> okay fake-out it was then
[11:58] <+Forex2stay> SL moved to BE
[12:00] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.75
[12:02] <codehead> oil new hod
[12:03] <+Forex2stay> Exited 1/2 EURUSD Long @ 1.4365 --> + 0.002
[12:03] <+jbuch> exit stop set ES @ 1136.25
[12:04] <+jbuch> tough market
[12:05] <@wrbtrader> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.50 --> 0
[12:06] <+Forex2stay> TP on remainder moved to 1.4390, SL BE
[12:06] <+jbuch> second time the market has broke in my favor and then failed
[12:07] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.25 --> - 0.5
[12:07] <@wrbtrader> Be back later...going to lunch.
[12:08] * wrbtrader is now known as wrbtrader_away
[12:08] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.75
[12:12] <+Forex2stay> SL moved to 1.4360
[12:13] <+jbuch> moved that stop to tight last time
[12:13] <+jbuch> doubled up on this one
[12:14] <+Forex2stay> jb is it just the two of us?
[12:16] <+rickf> nope
[12:17] <+Forex2stay> hey rick
[12:17] <+rickf> just quiet market
[12:17] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD finally had a little action, but think its about over
[12:18] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136 --> - 0.75
[12:18] <+rickf> yeah it bounced after you got out -- was what i was expecting, just too too long to develop
[12:18] <+Forex2stay> i'm still in half...closed first part +20
[12:18] <+rickf> still short?
[12:19] <+Forex2stay> yep
[12:19] <+rickf> ah
[12:19] <+Forex2stay> sorry confusing you...still long
[12:19] <+rickf> oh ... new trade then.
[12:20] <+Forex2stay> i entered long earlier [10:15] <+Forex2stay> Long EURUSD @ 1.4345
[12:20] <+rickf> no worries
[12:20] <+rickf> oh - missed that while at gym.
[12:20] <+Forex2stay> closed 1/2 still have last 1/2 SL 1.4360. TP 1.4390
[12:21] <+rickf> gotcha
[12:22] <+jbuch> good ex of how different ES and SPY cann look on the 5 min shart right now
[12:23] <+Forex2stay> Exited Remainder EURUSD Long @ 1.4369 --> + 0.0024
[12:24] <+Forex2stay> Closing the books, so will just watch now
[12:24] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.5
[12:24] <+jbuch> 1 more time
[12:25] <+rickf> es perhaps setting up for a breakdown
[12:29] <+jbuch> hard to tell have a higher low and a lower high.
[12:29] <+rickf> instinct, fwiw
[12:29] <+jbuch> reminds me of yesterday keeps pushing against resistance hopefully will pop
[12:31] <+jbuch> tick fading
[12:33] <+jbuch> tried down and failed lets see what we have above 37
[12:35] <+jbuch> come on people buy
[12:40] <+Forex2stay> EU ran without me...good read bad 2nd exit
[12:53] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[12:55] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD at HOD
[13:00] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.5 --> 0
[13:01] <+jbuch> that was disapointing
[13:03] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD had some very nice price action today
[13:03] <+jbuch> ES choppy as hell likeusual
[13:04] <+Forex2stay> yeah i'm not sure i could trade ES...i watch and look at EOD, but never have a good feel for the price action
[13:05] <+codehead> i don't think it's so much choppy, as the lack of range
[13:05] <+codehead> always going to be some noise
[13:06] <+codehead> hard for me to call it choppy, anyway, when the perfect entry and perfect exit will net you 3-4 ticks max
[13:06] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 11137.25
[13:06] <+codehead> NQ strong today, after being a laggard recently
[13:06] <+jbuch> large size
[13:14] <+jbuch> brutal
[13:14] <+jbuch> good vol on that
[13:14] <+jbuch> hoping for a massive explosion up
[13:15] <+codehead> dollar still dropping
[13:15] <+codehead> oil sitll popping
[13:15] <+Forex2stay> dropping and popping baby
[13:15] <+jbuch> come on baby
[13:17] <+jbuch> shoot
[13:19] <+jbuch> third time that I have been up over 100 bucks just to lose $.
[13:19] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.75 --> - 10000.5
[13:20] <+codehead> :-)
[13:21] <+codehead> hm, not smiley
[13:21] <+codehead> YM didn't get thru, it's the dog today
[13:24] <+jbuch> man I thought for sure if it got above 37.5 would break to 40 ish
[13:24] <+Forex2stay> EURUS has increased its trading range today to 176 pips
[13:24] <+Forex2stay> sorry EURUS
[13:24] <+Forex2stay> lol
[13:24] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD
[13:25] <+Forex2stay> good thing i don't get paid to type
[13:25] <+jbuch>
[13:29] <+Forex2stay> +20
[13:30] <+Forex2stay> so was adding and typed in wrong screen
[13:35] <+werner> es yesterdays hod here
[13:36] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1138.25
[13:42] * wrbtrader_away is now known as wrbtrader
[13:43] <+jbuch> tick fading
[13:44] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1137.5 --> - 0.75
[13:46] <@wrbtrader> volatility rising
[13:46] <+Forex2stay> switching to simulator...still have urge to trade
[13:47] <+Forex2stay> Sell Stop put in at 1.4415
[13:48] <+Forex2stay> but as rule do not trade after 13hr EST
[13:51] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1137
[13:51] <+jbuch> 36 is critical
[13:52] <@wrbtrader> Shorts ES @ 1136.50 -> medium size
[13:52] <@wrbtrader> 4 only
[13:53] <@wrbtrader> went 4 instead of 2
[13:55] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1136.75 --> + 0.25
[13:56] <@wrbtrader> weak support developed
[13:56] <@wrbtrader> watching this carefully
[13:57] <+codehead> we have consumer credit coming
[13:57] <+codehead> in an hour i think
[13:58] <@wrbtrader> oh oh...volatility just died
[13:58] <@wrbtrader> watch out...it's going to spike
[13:58] <@wrbtrader> hopefully the spike takes prices down and not up
[13:59] <@wrbtrader> tighten my trail
[14:00] <+codehead> top looking in
[14:02] <+codehead> well, dang, earlier i was thinking to short yesty ES hod
[14:02] <+codehead> 1138.50
[14:02] <+codehead> and it was high of bounce
[14:02] <+codehead> we've going down
[14:02] <+jbuch> Shorts ES @ 1136
[14:03] <@wrbtrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1136.00 --> + 0.5
[14:04] <@wrbtrader> Target was 1135.50 but I lost my patience on the trade.
[14:05] <+jbuch> trade error on my part
[14:06] <+jbuch> Covered all ES Short @ 1136.5 --> - 0.5
[14:09] <+Forex2stay> Shorts EURUSD @ 1.4415 «« simulator »»
[14:20] <+codehead> oil sure rinsed
[14:20] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.25
[14:23] <+rickf> QOTD: "You know the DXY is making a major move when the Dollar Value Menu at Wendy's changes while you are ordering." -- comment over on a financial gossip blog
[14:24] <+Forex2stay> lol
[14:25] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136 --> - 0.25
[14:26] <+rickf> isnt obama supposed to speak sometime this hour?
[14:27] <+Forex2stay> Covered all EURUSD Short @ 1.4415 --> 0 «« simulator »»
[14:27] <+Forex2stay> got things to do...see you all next week
[14:27] <+rickf> cya
[14:28] * Forex2stay is now known as Forex2stay_Away
[14:41] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.75
[14:44] <+jbuch> no strength up or down today
[14:44] <+rickf> yupper ;(
[14:45] <+rickf> 3 pt range mostly
[14:47] <+codehead> wow, this late in the day... YM 23 contracts on recent 5 min bar
[14:47] <+codehead> Obama speaking i think
[14:47] <+codehead> and report due top of hour
[14:50] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1136.25 --> - 0.5
[14:50] <+jbuch> new I shoulda taken that off at breakeven
[14:58] <+jbuch> hopefully we get some volatility
[14:59] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @
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[15:02] <+jbuch> negative 17. 5 billion anticipated-4.9
[15:06] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1136.5
[15:09] <TraderG> when is option expiary this month?
[15:10] <+rickf> net friday
[15:10] <@wrbtrader> Very easy to see how tight the range has been via the 15min chart after 1000am est
[15:10] <+jbuch> good vol on that breakout
[15:11] <+TraderG> thanks rf
[15:11] <+jbuch> but every other breakout has failed on me today
[15:11] <+TraderG> is personal JB
[15:11] <+TraderG> the market is out 2 get u
[15:11] <@wrbtrader> I did a random stats on the LENGHT of range and it was 1.8x longer than the norm.
[15:12] <@wrbtrader> That's extremely tough trading conditions for last year.
[15:12] <@wrbtrader> I've heard this year is suppose to be worst
[15:12] <+rickf> would NOT surprise me
[15:14] <@wrbtrader> Could be a year to live off past years profits and take it easy
[15:15] <@wrbtrader> Spouse already trying to convince me to take a 2 month vacation this summer to go to United States and Europe to travel and visit relatives.
[15:16] <@wrbtrader> starting to sound good
[15:17] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1137.25 --> + 0.75
[15:18] <+jbuch> many more days like this and I will be looking for something else to do.
[15:18] <@wrbtrader> I don't have charts of the 70's but I do remember my old man talking about low volatility trading ranges like this two years in the 70's
[15:18] <@wrbtrader> Some of his floor trading buddies left the floor and took up other trading jobs.
[15:20] <+TraderG> or they stayed as floor sweepers
[15:21] <+rickf> i skind of why i went into options last fall ... check the position once daily and move on
[15:22] <+rickf> also why i went to a larger time-based timeframe on the intraday charts too
[15:22] <+rickf> well 1 of the reasons
[15:23] <+jbuch> Long ES @ 1137.5
[15:37] <+jbuch> come 38
[15:38] <+TraderG> is there a 2 stroke keyboard representation of a yawn? I am 2 tired to write.....
[15:38] <+rickf> zzzzz
[15:38] <+TraderG>
[15:38] <+jbuch> come on baby break it
[15:39] <+rickf> absolutely nothing since this morning
[15:39] <+TraderG> now u woke me up JB
[15:39] <+rickf> for me anyway
[15:41] <+Forex2stay_Away> most of my trades come during the London session, which for me is quite early. Most days i'm done trading about 10am-11am CST
[15:42] * Forex2stay_Away is now known as Forex2stay
[15:42] <+TraderG> i would like to live in Europe
[15:43] <+jbuch> Exited all ES Long @ 1140.25 --> + 2.75
[15:43] <+TraderG> nice
[15:43] <+jbuch> pheww finally
[15:43] <+TraderG> now i can go back 2
[15:43] <+Forex2stay> Sha-Pow!!
[15:43] <+Forex2stay> nice jb
[15:43] <+jbuch> 4 on that
[15:43] <tomosyn57> bravo
[15:44] <+rickf> wtg
[15:45] <+jbuch> 2 nice lil runners and about 10 tiny losses or breakeven stops brutal day.
[15:46] <+Forex2stay> that's what makes trading tough...if i can get a least one runner i'm having a good day (profit wise) however mentally keep taking the small loss or Break evens is tough.
[15:46] <+jbuch> yeah
[15:47] <+jbuch> gotta keep your cool and try to see clear and unbiased
[15:47] <+rickf> and not get impatient
[15:47] <+Forex2stay> so very nice...most would have thrown in the towel, and missed out.
[15:47] <+jbuch> I have a hard time not losing my temper
[15:47] * +rickf made my trades this morning, saw the boring tape, just did other stuff while every now and then checking the chart to see what was happening
[15:47] <+jbuch> woulda been a shitty weekend
[15:48] <+jbuch> great way to do it rick if u can catch it right off
[15:48] <+jbuch> thanks forex
[15:49] <+jbuch> I am BEEEAAATT
[15:49] <+Forex2stay> just finished reviewing the day, and even though i had a good day, i missed a few and mis-managed a few, so some good learning material today.
[15:49] <+rickf> oh from around 1515 i'd pay attention into the close ... but quiet tape from 1130-1500 i will multitask
[15:50] <+jbuch> THESE DAYS ARE TOUGH BUT U CAN LEARN A LOT FROM THEM
[15:50] <+jbuch> oops on the caps
[15:50] <+rickf> yeah you can
[15:50] <+rickf> big one is to not force a trade on a dull tape
[15:50] <+rickf> impatience = kiss of death
[15:50] <+jbuch> this area now in my book becomes very critical
[15:51] <+jbuch> lots of folks ocked in here
[15:51] <+rickf> o dpm
[15:51] <+rickf> the weekly is kinda ominous imho
[15:51] <+jbuch> should just keep tmoving that stop up
[15:52] <@wrbtrader> Great volatility spike on that...only just watching...not trading due to some family distractions.
[15:53] <+Forex2stay> man ES knocked on the 1137 area several times today
[15:53] <+jbuch> yeah and what arock 36 ended up being
[15:53] <+Forex2stay> lot of pressure...lot of shorts got caught with the pants down probably, thus the violent move up.
[15:55] <+Forex2stay> i think that pretty much sums up my philosophy on the market.. I try to figure where/when others will get caught on the wrong side...thus getting the fast move.
[15:55] <+tomosyn57> NQ stalling at Jan 6 HOD
[15:56] <+Forex2stay> by the who is the man?
[15:56] <@wrbtrader> FYI - 1200 is a key price level that Emini ES fell through back in Sept 2008.
[15:56] <+jbuch> same here forex
[15:56] <@wrbtrader> We all know what happen soon after that...straight down.
[15:56] <+Forex2stay> lol?
[15:57] <+Forex2stay> funny stuff
[15:59] <+Forex2stay> you mean straight down to 650 area?
[15:59] <+Forex2stay> my charts don't go back that far
[16:00] <@wrbtrader> Yes...but not in a straight line...there was some nice failed counter-thrusts all the way down to 650
[16:00] <+rickf> 1190 range in sept 2008 dowwwwn to 666
[16:01] <+jbuch> thought I was in two of those bear traps today forex was all excited was already adding the 600 bucks into my account but they both failed.
[16:01] <+rickf> now bouncing backup to the bottom of that range (weekly chart)
[16:02] <+Forex2stay> meaning u were in the bear trap jb or playing with the bear trap?
[16:02] <+jbuch> yeah that isgoing to be tough to get back through
[16:02] <@wrbtrader> I'll expect volatility to get back to normal if/when ES can get above that 1200 level.
[16:02] <+rickf> if not? another hard charge down
[16:02] <+jbuch> I was long thinking the bears would cover
[16:02] <+Forex2stay> got it thanks!
[16:02] <@wrbtrader> Normal as in the LENGTH of the trading ranges will began to get smaller instead of larger.
[16:03] <+rickf> cuz the retail traders/public will not want to ride their portfolios down again now that many have recouped their losses
[16:03] <+jbuch> but I think a lot of people were reversing breakouts today
[16:03] <+rickf> oh
[16:03] <+Forex2stay> looks like it....triangle 5m just kept getting smaller then a few failed breakouts
[16:04] <+Forex2stay> that would have been nasty to trade
[16:04] <+jbuch> it was
[16:04] <+rickf> the 1505-1520 timeframe
[16:04] <+rickf> er 1505-1535
[16:05] <+Forex2stay> k..calling it quits you guys have a great weekend, see ya Monday
[16:06] <+rickf> me too
[16:06] <+rickf> have a good w/e all
[16:06] * Forex2stay is now known as Forex2stay_Away
[16:08] <+TraderG> LENGHT of trading range >> ATR
???
[16:09] <+jbuch> takeforex
[16:09] <+jbuch> take care forex
.
[16:10] <+jbuch> trader G whatis ur above
[16:10] <+TraderG> what did Mark mean by LENGTH of trading range?
[16:12] <+jbuch> ahh
[16:13] <+jbuch> studying todays chart
[16:13] <+jbuch> taking a pic going to label it fake out
[16:43] <@wrbtrader> [16:10] <+TraderG> what did Mark mean by LENGTH of trading range?
[16:43] <@wrbtrader> Here's an example if someone else is interested...
[16:46] <@wrbtrader> The average LENGTH of a trading range after a strong directional price movement is 37 mins in length.
[16:47] <@wrbtrader> However, if the next few months show the LENGTH increasing to 74 mins...
[16:47] <@wrbtrader> It was correlating with the decline in profit levels.
[16:47] <@wrbtrader> Simply, less volatility = less profits
[16:48] <@wrbtrader> Another way to look at it...the longer the duration of the volatility...there's less of a duration of RANGE
[16:49] <@wrbtrader> Most traders are condition to ignore or stay on the sidelines when the markets are volatile...
[16:49] <+jbuch> thanks wrbtrader very interesting
[16:50] <@wrbtrader> That trading plan back fires big time when the LENGTH of trading ranges increases because traders sit on the sidelines when prices are moving and are more lost when "nothing looks interesting to trade" when that low volatility trading range hits.
[16:51] <@wrbtrader> Someone recently told me he's profitable but not making enough money to continue trading.
[16:51] <@wrbtrader> That sums it up I guess.
[16:52] <+jbuch> thanks
[16:53] <+jbuch> so if you see an increasing length of time in ranges
[16:53] <+jbuch> do u lower your size
[16:53] <+jbuch> trade less
[16:53] <@wrbtrader> Yes and here's why...
[16:54] <@wrbtrader> If losses occurs in trading ranges that are increasing in LENGTH (duration)...we have less time to recover from those losses.
[16:54] <@wrbtrader> To be able to recover from losses...we need an increase in the LENGTH of volatility.
[16:56] <+jbuch> yes makes sense.
[16:56] <@wrbtrader> I also see a statistical DECREASE in the number of trade signals when I'm sticking to my trading plan (no intution trades) in comparison to prior years.
[16:57] <@wrbtrader> There's this CONTENT in the markets right now and have been there for most of 2009.
[16:58] <+jbuch> on avg these ranges are lasting about 74 min now.
[16:58] <@wrbtrader> Yes
[16:59] <@wrbtrader> I call them "killers" for those traders that are impatient or have the need to be always trading.
[16:59] <@wrbtrader> Meant the range is "killing" those types of traders.
[16:59] <+jbuch> after a stronge move then do u stayout for an hour or so then
[17:00] <@wrbtrader> Lets put it this way...it's what I've been trying to do the past few months.
[17:00] <+jbuch> yes very hard and maybe a bad Idea to switch your style around.
[17:02] <@wrbtrader> I tried last year to increase my number of trades during the few volatility durations we had in a trading day.
[17:02] <+jbuch> But with this in mind I was up several times today and after such an extended range perhapes I should have been scalping portions of my positions
[17:02] <@wrbtrader> That didn't work to well.
[17:02] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[17:03] <+jbuch> so hard to tell when it will be range bound and when it will move
[17:03] <@wrbtrader> It's getting easier now to determine
[17:03] <+jbuch> yes because it is more common
[17:04] <+jbuch> a ranging market can be quite profitble but different set of rules.
[17:05] <@wrbtrader> Some ranges are ok...the ones that have volatility within them.
[17:05] <+jbuch> if you had faded every break out today and scalped at the other extreme would have done well
[17:05] <@wrbtrader> It's those ranges that have no volatility that are Killers.
[17:06] <@wrbtrader> Well...so far this year...it's scalper heaven
[17:06] <+jbuch> wierd day seemed like it was waiting for consumer credit all day
[17:06] <@wrbtrader> Fade anything that spikes
[17:06] <+jbuch> that was horrible and the market rallied
[17:07] <@wrbtrader> That's why there's a shift of movment from stocks/futures into Forex Currencies.
[17:07] <@wrbtrader> Traders looking for stronger directional price movements.
[17:07] <+jbuch> yes I have that as a rule if sideways fade breakouts
[17:08] <@wrbtrader> I see more Forex Vendor sites late last year than I've seen the past few years put together.
[17:08] <@wrbtrader> They know traders are moving into Forex
[17:08] <+jbuch> used to do it well but have gotton more into the mindset of looking for strength
[17:08] <+jbuch> hard to switch back in forth.
[17:09] <@wrbtrader> exactly...it is difficult to switch back in forth.
[17:09] <+jbuch> and going with momentum works better in the long haul in my opinion
[17:10] <+jbuch> but after 3 hours ofa 2 point range should be able to see it.
[17:10] <+jbuch> I didn't but should have.
[17:12] <+jbuch> look at EU today
[17:12] <@wrbtrader> Yep
[17:12] <+jbuch> man what a different chart
[17:13] <+werner> nice wk all
[17:13] <+jbuch> hard to change ur style every few days and just as hard to change ur instrument
[17:14] <+jbuch> take care werner
[17:14] <+jbuch> I am off as well thanks wrbtrader
[17:23] <@wrbtrader> Take care all and have safe/good weekend
[17:23] * wrbtrader is now known as wrbtrader_away
[19:05] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @
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