taotree wrote:
This is supposed to end with "What is your favorite color?", and after responding with doubt I get catapulted into a very deep canyon, right?
1) It sounds like you use time charts, but suggest that it works on other chart types as well. I would expect that one might get very different results on time vs. volume charts since the meaning of wide bodies would be different?
2) There is mention of applicability to market conditions. Do the materials give a deterministic way of discerning the market condition, or is that something that comes only through experience?
3) Does this approach provide a bias/info/explanation for the behavior of the market at all times, or does it only deal with identifying/explaining things at certain points? IOW, does it provide a constant story as I watch the market, or is it a matter of waiting until some event/pattern occurs and the rest is just "noise"?
Hi Toatree,
Answer #1Yes, I myself use time charts although clients use time charts or other types of charts. So far, I haven't heard any clients that uses time charts and volume charts state they see differences in the behavior of wide range bodies when comparing different types of charts.
As for trade results if that's what you're referring too...different types of charts implies that entries are not the same when comparing one type of chart to a different type of chart. Therefore, trade results should be different as expected due to the simple fact that entries and exits are different.
Answer #2 In reference to the trade strategies from the AJCTR, APAOR, STR and VTR...yes, some strategies tend to produce more trade opportunities in specific types of market conditions. Further, when that type of market condition changes...the strategies will produce less trade signals.
For example, lets pretend strategy A produce 20 signals per week in current market conditions while strategy B only produces 5 signals per week.
Yet, when market conditions change...strategy A may only produce 5 signals per week while strategy B increases in frequency via producing 20 signals per week.
Simply, when market conditions change...you'll know it because you'll see a change in the number of trade opportunities when comparing one strategy to another particular strategy.
Answer #3 The relates more to the WRB Analysis Tutorials and not the trade strategies (AJCTR, APAOR, STR and VTR) because it's the WRB Analysis Tutorials that provides the understanding of the price action while the trade strategies provide entry/exit signals only.
Therefore, yes, the WRB Analysis Tutorials are not trade signals because they provide the bias/info/explanation for the behavior of the price action regardless if you use our strategies or your own custom strategies...
Providing you with the story if you have access to all 12 tutorial chapters.
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By the way, I got your email questions that's a little different from your posted questions here at the forum. Therefore, I'll respond to the parts not answered aboved.
taotree wrote:
I just read through some of your web site. I am interested in your products/services.
Some questions about your strategy reports:
1) Could you give me a general idea of how many trade setups occur each day on the ES for the criteria in your strategy reports? Also, typical stop and target sizes? I know it might vary, but there's a big difference between strategies that require 2-4 pt stops, and .5 - 1.5 pt stops. Just trying to get a feel for drawdown possibilities and risk/reward.
2) Just to confirm, the information in your strategy reports include stop and target calculation (or patterns) as well, right?
3) I saw on your FAQ that the strategies are programmable, though you have not done so. I am a professional software developer. Would you consider allowing me access in exchange for software development (ie.
coding an indicator/strategy, data analysis, software utilities, etc.)?
4) There is mention of applicability to market conditions. I'm inferring that certain strategies are only applicable for certain market conditions? If so, is there a deterministic way of discerning the market condition, or is that something that comes only through experience? Or is it that the strategy will simply not have any entries show up if the market conditions are not right? In other words, will the strategies always work when they do have entries, or do you have to be careful to only apply them in certain "market conditions" or else they may result in lots of losses?
Thank you,
Joel
Answer #1 The VTR produces the most trade opportunities than the STR, APAOR and AJCTR combined. On a range day with high volatility...I would guess that the VTR produces about 8 trade signals. In comparison, on a range day with low volatility...the VTR produces about 5 trade signals. However, on a trend day with high volatility...the VTR produces about 5 trade signals while on a trend day with low volatility...the VTR produces about 3 trade signals.
As you can see, more trade opportunities on high or rising volatility in comparison to low or declining volatility.
In addition, you asked about typical stop and target sizes. The strategies (AJCTR, APAOR, STR and VTR) do not use fixed stops nor fixed profit targets. Simply, the stops or targets change from one trade to the next trade and they are determined only by the price action itself.
For example, it's recommended that clients exit trades at the first profit target that is called WRB pt1 regardless to how much the profit may be. Then after your experience grows with the strategies...that's when you can stay in trades longer for WRB pt2, pt3, pt4 et cetera because you'll have a better understanding of the price action that comes with the growing experience.
In addition, as stated in each strategy...if the stop seems too big for your taste...either don't take the trade or lower your position size to better manage the increased risk you see.
However, I would say I see clients using on average about -1.00 or -1.25 stops on ES and the WRB pt1 seems to be around +1.50 or +1.75. In contrast, as for myself, my stops tend to be around -0.75 on average while my WRB pt1 seems to be around +1.50 on most trading days. It's just a guess because I do not keep track of stats involving my stops and profit targets except for if it's a WRB pt1, pt2, pt3 or so on where I exited a trade.
Answer #2 Yes, the trade management section of the strategies includes recommendation for initial stop placement, trailing stop adjustments, profit targets and contingency plan when something goes wrong.
Answer #3 The strategies are not programmable as a whole as in a mechanical trading system. However, some aspects of the strategies and WRB Analysis Tutorials are programmable as stated by several programmers that are clients.
By the way, a 30 day free trial is available for the WRB Analysis Tutorial chapters 1, 2 and 3. Simply, you can use the free trial to take a closer look at the foundation of the trade strategies.
http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum/viewtopic.php?f=5&t=180 Answer #4 It's simple...when volatility is low...I get more trade signals in the AJCTR, APAOR or STR in comparison to the VTR. However, as volatility begins to rise or is high...the number of trade signals begin increasing via the VTR while decreasing for the AJCTR, APAOR and STr.
As for their reliability...it's about the same regardless to the volatility. With that said, if you have further questions, don't hesitate to post them here at the forum.
Edit: You attached the required chart example after your initial message post for access to the 30 day free trial of the WRB Analysis Tutorial Chapters 1, 2 and 3. I'll setup you access when I've completed trading for the day. Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
http://www.thestrategylab.com
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