##TheStrategyLab Price Action Chat Room Logs

Note: The chat log below represents the free chat room called #FuturesTrades . Also, any trader can use the chat room to post their trades. Simply, you don't need to be a client of TheStrategyLab.com to use the chat room nor do you need to be a price action only trader (no indicators) because some members use indicators while others do not.

Therefore, we welcome all traders with their own methods and different perspective of the markets.

Also, our primary job in the free chat room is to moderate the room (keep the peace) because with so many members using different methods along with different opinions about the market...debates or arguments can easily flare up without moderating. In addition, our presence in the chat room is to ensure it's a spam free chat room during trading although these archived chat logs may contain advertisments for guest visitors. More information about #FuturesTrades @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm

Further, to prevent the usual mix-up about our different chat rooms, most of our fee-base clients do not use chat rooms just like most retail traders do not use chat rooms. Yet, the few clients that do use chat rooms, our fee-base clients are discussing market analysis or trade signals via concepts from our strategies in the private chat rooms called #VolatilityTradingTSL or #SwingTradingTSL and they're not allowed to do such in #FuturesTrades.

By the way, our Terms of Use (TOU) Policy is a must read to prevent any misunderstandings along with revealing that #FuturesTrades is a serious professional trading chat room and we expect members to act professional.

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Session Start: Wed Aug 05 09:15:48 2009
Session Ident: #futurestrades
[09:15] * Now talking in #futurestrades
[09:15] <@X> [NihabaAshi] Announcement: The new trade posting script v3.7 (replaces v3.6) is posted at your forum in the "Announcements" thread.
[09:25] <rickf> all
[09:29] <drt>
[09:32] <@NihabaAshi> We got some good volatility without the range out of the gate so far...
[09:33] <@NihabaAshi> That will help with making trading easier in comparison to yesterday's morning out of the gate.
[09:34] * codehead_afk is now known as codehead
[09:35] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 1000.75 -> large size
[09:35] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:36] <Forex2stay> EURUSD still trading within it's 80 pip range that it has been stuck in the last 2days.
[09:37] <+drt> s es 02.50
[09:37] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 1002.00 --> - 1.25
[09:37] <@NihabaAshi> Pres. Obama is on TV now
[09:38] <+Forex2stay> discussing Clinton getting the hostages released.
[09:38] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 1002.00 -> large size
[09:38] <+drt> cs es 02
[09:38] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:39] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 1002.75 --> - 0.75
[09:39] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...his speech had nothing to do with the econmy...just the recent release of the journalist from N. Korea
[09:40] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 1002.00 -> large size
[09:40] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 1003.75 --> - 1.75
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 1003.50 -> large size
[09:43] <@NihabaAshi> 6 only
[09:44] <werner> all
[09:48] <+werner> wow nice wrbtrader
[09:49] <+werner> 99 sup ...next 97
[09:49] <+Forex2stay> Long EURUSD @ 1.4379
[09:50] <+werner> next 92
[09:51] <@NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ES Short @ 998.75 --> + 4.75
[09:51] <+werner> vn
[09:52] <+werner> i didnt hold it
[09:52] <@NihabaAshi> I kepted hammering at it
[09:52] <+rickf> wtg wrbtrader
[09:53] <+rickf> short 6E 1.4390
[09:54] <+Forex2stay> Exited 1/2 EURUSD Long @ 1.4389 --> + 0.001
[09:54] <+Forex2stay> trail remainder
[09:54] <+werner> brb
[09:55] <+rickf> exit 6E 1.4386 +4
[09:56] <+rickf> sheesh by the time i type the trade it's 'off to the races'
[09:56] <+Forex2stay> yep
[09:56] <@NihabaAshi> Economic Report Alert (volatility spikes) - 10am est Factory Orders and ISM Non-Mfg Index in a few minutes.
[09:56] <+rickf> the joys of not using tradestation and the wrbtrader-posting script
[09:59] <@NihabaAshi> Oil and Gold still declining...they haven't tried to find some stability.
[09:59] <@NihabaAshi> Covered ES Short @ 908.00 --> + 95.5
[09:59] <@NihabaAshi> ooops
[09:59] <@NihabaAshi> Covered ES Short @ 998.00 --> + 5.5
[09:59] <@NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract remainder
[10:00] <+rickf>
[10:00] <+Forex2stay> Exited Remainder EURUSD Long @ 1.4379 --> 0
[10:01] <+rickf> sheesh
[10:01] <+Forex2stay> economic numbers pushed EURUSD below it's range...looking for BO
[10:01] <+rickf> again with the early bail.
[10:01] <+rickf> oh n/m -- 1000
[10:01] <@NihabaAshi> I've been having some data problems again with Oil and Gold for the past few trading days...
[10:02] <@NihabaAshi> Can only see the recent 5 mins worth of data.
[10:03] <Nesi> today probably starts the downtrend to 950 area or lower ..imho
[10:03] <+Nesi> kinda swing trade for few days..imo
[10:03] <+werner> maybesup here on nq
[10:03] <@NihabaAshi> Meant...can only see it on regular session charts and not the all session chart that shows the overnight info.
[10:04] <@NihabaAshi> Eurex DAX made an intraday low
[10:06] <+Forex2stay> EURUSD retraced back into it's 2 day trading range..BO shorts probably got caught with their pants down
[10:07] <@NihabaAshi> Took most of yesterday to get profitable...
[10:07] <@NihabaAshi> In comparison, only took 30mins today to get profitable.
[10:07] <@NihabaAshi>
[10:08] <+rickf> short 6E 1.4380
[10:11] <@NihabaAshi> rickf...I notice the EuroFX has been ranging since Monday afternoon.
[10:11] <+Forex2stay> getting some help from EURJPY Rick hopefully it will pull it down for ya
[10:11] <+rickf> out 6E 1.4367 +13
[10:11] <+rickf> got the move i wanted
[10:11] <+rickf> yeah wrbtrader
[10:11] <+Forex2stay> yep nice
[10:11] <+rickf> it doesnt seem to chop around like the ES
[10:12] <+rickf> and when it goes, it GOES
[10:12] <@NihabaAshi> It's not often I see it range like that...
[10:12] <@NihabaAshi> something is going on.
[10:12] <+rickf> i only started watching the 6E recently as an alterantive to the ES
[10:13] <+Forex2stay> 6E is the futures equivelant to EURUSD correct?
[10:13] <+rickf> yep
[10:13] <@NihabaAshi> yes
[10:13] <+rickf> same tick value as the ES
[10:13] <+rickf> there's also a micro future too but i hear it's horrible
[10:13] <+Forex2stay> yes i tried it...nasty
[10:13] <+rickf> no liquidity -- ie it's the CME's way of attracting forex folks
[10:14] <+werner> 6e is that the full tikker name?
[10:14] <+rickf> 6EU9
[10:14] <@NihabaAshi> depends on the broker.
[10:15] <+werner> ah ok tx
[10:15] <@NihabaAshi> some use EC
[10:15] <+rickf> for me, anyway - 6E is the CME's base symbol I think, might try EC as well
[10:17] <@NihabaAshi> Gold, Oil and DAX still declining...EuroFX moving on the intraday but still stuck in that overall range since Monday
[10:18] <+Forex2stay> seeing overall USD weekness
[10:18] <+Forex2stay> sorry strength
[10:18] <@NihabaAshi> Treasury yields nose dive today which means treasury futures are moving strongly higher today.
[10:20] <@NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 992.50 --> + 11
[10:20] <+rickf> vvvv n
[10:20] <kosmipt> nice
[10:22] <+werner> wow
[10:24] <+werner> i only see in tradestation E7U09 and that has a horrible 1 min chart
[10:25] <@NihabaAshi> Looks like Gold and Oil have finally found a little support.
[10:25] <@NihabaAshi> Will be interesting to see if they can use it to stabilize the overall markets.
[10:25] <@NihabaAshi> If not...will see lower lows in Eminis and Eurex
[10:30] <+Forex2stay> Shorts GBPUSD @ 1.6964
[10:31] <@NihabaAshi> 1030am est EIA Pettroleum Status Report just released...so far the market is absorbing the info without an additional volatility.
[10:32] <+luffy>
[10:32] <+luffy> what a run this mornig
[10:33] <@NihabaAshi> Oil now spiking down
[10:33] <+Forex2stay> Covered all GBPUSD Short @ 1.6964 --> 0
[10:34] <+Forex2stay> they shook me out
[10:34] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 993.75 -> small size
[10:35] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[10:36] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 993.25 --> + 0.5
[10:37] <+luffy> wrbtrader +11 nice...
[10:37] <+luffy> didnt know u hold for swings too
[10:37] <@NihabaAshi> Yes...too bad it was on the remaining contract (1 contract) from a 6 contract position.
[10:38] <+luffy> icic still good money
[10:38] <@NihabaAshi> I usually enter a trade to catch points (not ticks).
[10:38] <+werner> long sim 1.43710
[10:39] <+werner> djeez that move fast
[10:39] <@NihabaAshi> However, what the market does after my entry...I can't control.
[10:39] <@NihabaAshi> Thus, I can only react to it and that sometimes results in exiting a profitable trade only for a few ticks.
[10:40] <@NihabaAshi> That's ok as long as I get another chance at trying to catch points.
[10:41] <+Forex2stay> stepping aside and just watching until EURUSD decides where it wants to go...chop city
[10:43] <+werner> out 1.43805
[10:43] <+werner> pff back too nq
[10:43] <+rickf> it moooooves
[10:43] <+rickf>
[10:43] <+luffy> ic wrbtrader
[10:43] <+luffy> oic
[10:43] <+werner> indd rickf
[10:43] <+rickf> gotta give it wiggle-room, and that can be painful to watch @ times
[10:44] <+werner>
[10:45] <+rickf> yeah - i've bailed at +1 only to see it blast in my favor 10 secs later ... if you can't take 4-8pt noise on the 6E regularly, don't trade it
[10:45] <+rickf> still not 100% comfy myself
[10:45] <+rickf> then again it's not theDAX
[10:45] <+rickf> lol
[10:46] <+werner> lol
[10:46] <+luffy> do u guys play with the dax?
[10:46] <+luffy> really thin vol...
[10:47] <+rickf> i paper traded it last year -- can be really really scary @ times
[10:47] <+rickf> iirc a "wiggle" on the DAX can scare you
[10:47] <+werner> a + is you can trade it 24hours
[10:47] <+luffy> if u dont need
[10:47] <+luffy> lol
[10:47] <+rickf> back in a bit
[10:48] <+werner> lol i mean i can trade it in the morning here
[10:48] <+luffy> icic
[11:01] <+werner>
[11:09] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 924.50 -> small size
[11:09] <@NihabaAshi> 1 only
[11:10] <@NihabaAshi> Exited ES Long @ 995.75 --> + 71.25
[11:10] <@NihabaAshi> ooops
[11:10] <+Forex2stay> Shorts GBPUSD @ 1.6984
[11:10] <@NihabaAshi> entry @ 994.50 and exit @ 995.75 for +1.25
[11:14] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[11:27] <+Forex2stay> Covered all GBPUSD Short @ 1.6992 --> - 0.0008
[11:31] <+Forex2stay> not a good close...could have worked my way out at a better price...lost patience
[11:32] <+Forex2stay> going to replay my last 3 trades be back later...
[11:40] <+werner> Long NQ @ 1605.25
[11:42] <@NihabaAshi> Key markets are stabilized but going sideways since the strong price drop.
[11:43] <+werner> Exited all NQ Long @ 1605.50 --> + 0.25
[11:43] <+werner> mm no action
[11:49] <+werner> 92 es is still working as sup
[11:50] <+werner> res 97 next 99
[11:52] <+werner> very slow pice action
[11:54] <+werner> pfff very hot in europe... i stay in the house ...airco
[11:56] <+Forex2stay> Obama speaking
[12:12] <+rickf> back
[12:32] <+Forex2stay> Long EURUSD @ 1.4415
[12:39] <+Forex2stay> Exited all EURUSD Long @ 1.4415 --> 0
[12:53] * forex2stay_2 is now known as forex2stay
[13:08] <forex2stay> calling it quits for the day while i'm still in profit...feel like i'm trying to play catch up with reading the market...will trade demo from here on out
[13:20] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[13:35] <+luffy> shorted 998 area got out be
[13:35] <+luffy> got scared
[13:40] <+codehead> a decent bet
[13:40] <+codehead> we had some extreme tick there, mkt trying to figure out if a fake move or not i think
[13:41] <+codehead> oil will not stay down--green now
[13:42] <+codehead> 999.5 is .500 on day globex
[13:55] <+codehead> 998.75 there is symmetry on globex
[14:04] <+codehead> 999.0 i meant on .500
[14:05] <+codehead> so that's a key level
[14:30] <+luffy> code i noticed that too
[14:35] <+forex2stay> EURUSD trying to challenge HOD
[14:36] <JimL14> lets see if the sellers have exhausted the supply here & let it go up?
[14:38] <+Nesi> 1000 big magnet
[14:40] <+JimL14> 997.75/es-562/tf is electro-magnet right now, i'd like 1000
[14:41] <JimL28> Long TF @ 562.1 «« simulator »»
[14:41] <+JimL28> 1
[14:45] <@NihabaAshi> A few point price rise on rising volatility
[14:46] <+forex2stay> EURUSD temporarily popped through the top of the 2-day range.
[14:46] <+forex2stay> could get a squeeze here
[14:47] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 563.5 --> - 4.9 «« simulator »»
[14:51] <+Nesi> are there numbers coming on at 3 pm?
[14:51] <+Nesi> or some report...
[14:52] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 565.5 «« simulator »»
[14:52] <+JimL28> 1
[14:53] <@NihabaAshi> easy short with an easy position reversal if wrong
[14:54] <+JimL28> Covered all TF Short @ 565.5 --> 0 «« simulator »»
[14:54] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 565 «« simulator »»
[14:54] <+JimL28> 1
[14:54] <+JimL28> corrected input
[14:54] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 1001.25 -> small size
[14:54] <@NihabaAshi> 2 only
[14:55] <+JimL28> Covered all TF Short @ 564 --> + 1 «« simulator »»
[14:56] <@NihabaAshi> oh oh...volatility dropping fast.
[14:56] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 563.8 «« simulator »»
[14:56] <+JimL28> 1
[14:56] <@NihabaAshi> I'm expecting a volatility spike here soon.
[14:56] <@NihabaAshi> hopefully down instead of up
[14:56] <@NihabaAshi> If it goes up...I'll position reverse into the price spike
[14:57] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 563.5 -> Add «« simulator »»
[14:57] <+JimL28> 1
[14:58] <+forex2stay> eurusd fell pushed back into the 2day range
[14:58] <+Nesi> thanks forex to keep me informed about the eurusd
[14:59] <+forex2stay> yw
[14:59] <@NihabaAshi> volatility still declining
[14:59] <+JimL28> Exited 1/2 TF Long @ 564 --> + 0.5 «« simulator »»
[15:01] <+JimL28> Exited Remainder TF Long @ 564.1 --> + 0.3 «« simulator »»
[15:01] <@NihabaAshi> Covered ES Short @ 1001.75 --> - 0.5
[15:01] <@NihabaAshi> Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1001.75
[15:03] <@NihabaAshi> volatility spike down and its looking for support
[15:04] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 1001.00 --> - 0.75
[15:05] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 1001.00 -> medium size
[15:05] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:07] <@NihabaAshi> volatility just died
[15:08] <+JimL14> 3:00 pause b4 the fun
[15:09] <@NihabaAshi> Anyone here uses one of those Wireless 3G or 4G networks ??
[15:10] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 564 «« simulator »»
[15:10] <+JimL28> 1
[15:10] <+rickf> long 6E 1.4428
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 1001.75 --> - 0.75
[15:11] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 564.5 --> + 0.5 «« simulator »»
[15:11] <@NihabaAshi> 1.75 range the past 15 minutes
[15:13] <@NihabaAshi> key markets ranging together now
[15:13] <+rickf> out 1.4429 +1
[15:13] <+rickf>
[15:13] <+JimL14> wedge forming on top of last run, usually a powerful move out of this wedge pattern, just got t/b right on choice :/
[15:14] <+rickf> yeah - but when the price 'hovers' and goes nowhere, i get nervous and start looking for the exit
[15:15] <+JimL14> that's just what i did
[15:15] <+rickf> me too
[15:15] <+Nesi> jbuck on vacation?
[15:15] <+rickf> sure the pop might work for us, but then again, it could pop the other way
[15:15] <+rickf> < does not like uncertainty
[15:16] <+Nesi> uncertanty is the only sure thing in trading..imo
[15:16] <+rickf> you know what i mean
[15:16] <+rickf>
[15:16] <+Nesi> i know
[15:18] <+rickf> wrbtrader - thx
[15:19] <drt> s es 01.25
[15:23] <@NihabaAshi> still stuck in that tight trading range
[15:23] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[15:25] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 1002.75 -> medium size
[15:26] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:26] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 565.1 «« simulator »»
[15:26] <+JimL28> 1
[15:26] <@NihabaAshi> lets see if it can stay above that prior range and not retrace back down into it.
[15:29] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 565.9 --> + 0.8 «« simulator »»
[15:30] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 1002.75 --> 0
[15:33] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 999.75 -> medium size
[15:33] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:34] <@NihabaAshi> missed 1001.25 entry
[15:37] <+drt> cs es 99.25
[15:37] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 562.5 «« simulator »»
[15:37] <+JimL28> 1
[15:37] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 999.50 --> + 0.25
[15:37] <@NihabaAshi> stalling
[15:38] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 563.5 --> + 1 «« simulator »»
[15:41] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 1001.50 -> medium size
[15:41] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:42] <@NihabaAshi> ooops
[15:42] <+JimL28> Long TF @ 563.5 «« simulator »»
[15:42] <+JimL28> 1
[15:42] <@NihabaAshi> Long ES @ 1000.50 -> medium size
[15:44] <@NihabaAshi> starting to look like the Emini ES is going to stay in that prior price range I mentioned earlier
[15:44] <@NihabaAshi> spiking back n forth through it to only return to it.
[15:44] <+luffy> jeez es justing following stocks
[15:44] <+JimL28> Exited all TF Long @ 563.7 --> + 0.2 «« simulator »»
[15:45] <+drt> s es 00.25
[15:47] <@NihabaAshi> Exited all ES Long @ 999.75 --> - 0.75
[15:48] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 999.00 -> medium size
[15:48] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:48] <@NihabaAshi> support being tested
[15:50] <+drt> cs es 98.75
[15:51] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 562.5 «« simulator »»
[15:51] <+JimL28> 1
[15:52] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 563.3 -> Add «« simulator »»
[15:52] <+JimL28> 1
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 999.75 --> - 0.75
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> Shorts ES @ 999.25 -> medium size
[15:52] <@NihabaAshi> 4 only
[15:55] <+rickf> ok guys out for the day - going to take a break before the 4:15 ToS chat
[15:55] <+rickf> have a good one - see ya tomorrow
[15:55] * rickf is now known as rickf_away
[15:56] <@NihabaAshi> Covered all ES Short @ 999.00 --> + 0.25
[15:56] <@NihabaAshi> took the 999 escape the market gave...
[15:57] <+JimL28> Covered 1/2 TF Short @ 562.7 --> + 0.6 «« simulator »»
[15:57] <+werner> gn all
[15:57] <@NihabaAshi> I hate to be short in the last few minutes with traders still highly profitable on those swing longs since July
[15:58] <+JimL28> Shorts TF @ 564.2 -> Add «« simulator »»
[15:58] <+JimL28> 1
[15:59] <+forex2stay> k...i'm done for the day met my profit goal...although a little sloppy. catch everyone tomorrow.
[16:02] * forex2stay is now known as Forex2stay_Away
[16:04] <@NihabaAshi> FYI - While on vacation in Magog (northern part of the Lake Memphremago)...one day I went boating with a trading pal (he's an institutional trader that moves a few million worth of trades in Emini ES and/or Treasuries ZB
[16:05] <@NihabaAshi> He was talking about how important in their office about "masquerading trades via showing stuff on the bid/offer and then pulling them".
[16:05] <+rickf_away> flash trades
[16:06] <@NihabaAshi> They'll push it up a few ticks with the true intentions of Shorting or push it down a few ticks with the intentions of getting Long
[16:06] <@NihabaAshi> rickf...exactly
[16:06] <@NihabaAshi> I asked him if it was just him or a few...
[16:06] <@NihabaAshi> He saids its EVERYBODY doing it at the institution firms in U.S., Canada and Europe.
[16:08] <@NihabaAshi> I asked if it's just the day traders in their office...
[16:08] <+rickf_away> i just posted a paper on that in the forums for anyone interested
[16:08] <@NihabaAshi> He saids no...even the swing guys/gals are doing it.
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> He then summed it up via saying that "trading has gotten more tougher for you retail folks" because the firms or institutional traders have a bigger advantage now.
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> It started in the financial meltdown last quarter.
[16:09] <@NihabaAshi> More firms are now using systems that make trades in "miliseconds".
[16:10] <@NihabaAshi> I can't remember whom it was...maybe Goldman Sachs or somebody...
[16:10] <+JimL14> if you do a search on High Freq Trading (HFT) and Flash trading you'll find a ton of recent reserach & commentary about the problems its causing all "human" non-"bot" traders
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> I heard on CNBC that those guys recently had the most record breaking trading profits the past quarter.
[16:11] <+luffy> why does it cause such programs?
[16:11] <+luffy> does it disrupt paterns?
[16:11] <+luffy> i know they frontun equities
[16:11] <+luffy> they dont do that in futures right?
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> I'm talking ONLY about futures...
[16:11] <Siddhartha> luffy... they front everything!
[16:11] <+Siddhartha> front run
[16:11] <@NihabaAshi> Emini ES and Tresury futures
[16:12] <+JimL14> they do it everywhere on everything recently
[16:12] <@NihabaAshi> don't know about equities
[16:12] <+luffy> WTF
[16:12] <+rickf_away> HFT like this is really only if you're scalping-for-fracitons-of-cents though ... prolly not the think we have to worry about as retail folks looking to buy 100 or 1000 shares of something for a longterm investment / swing trade
[16:12] <+luffy> that should be illegal
[16:12] <+luffy> kill them all
[16:12] <+rickf_away> my only 'games' familiarity is the stop-running antics played by MMs on retailers
[16:13] <+luffy> stop runs offer great entries
[16:13] <+JimL14> follow the commnets on zerohedge.com et al it screws up all the shortterm patterns,
[16:13] <+luffy> if u have balls
[16:13] <+Siddhartha> while I understand that market microstructure is constantly changing, surely it's simply a challenge to retail traders to recgonise new patterns...
[16:13] <+luffy> i'm guessing that
[16:13] <+luffy> wrbtrader, u been trading forever, what do u notice about change in patterns
[16:13] <@NihabaAshi> Patterns in flash trades or milisecond trades...
[16:14] <+luffy> just patterns in es in general
[16:14] <@NihabaAshi> Would need a computer for such to look for patterns or robot habits in that.
[16:14] <@NihabaAshi> Meant...a special program for such.
[16:14] <+rickf_away> and proximity to the exchange servers helps them in terms of network latency
[16:15] <+rickf_away> shave a few hundred milliseconds off and you're in like flynn
[16:15] <+Siddhartha> I think the great advantage retail traders have is flexibility... to think outside the box... and adapt...
[16:15] <+luffy> and small size
[16:15] <+Siddhartha> most of these guys at institutions would get absolutely murdered if they stood on a floor and tried to trade...
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi> Sid...yes but the flip side is that MOST retail traders don't want to or not able to adapt.
[16:16] <@NihabaAshi> Retail traders tend to get MARRIED to stuff.
[16:16] <+Siddhartha> the advantage they have is bundles of ammo & trading with someone else's money...!!
[16:16] <+Siddhartha> wrbtrader... sure. I guess we all need to be careful of that tendancy...
[16:16] <+JimL14> the best way i heard that shows the problem to the retail traders is the overlap of all the micro-moves, which grabs all trailing stops & then resumes, that's one of the multitude of difficulty of staying in trends
[16:17] <@NihabaAshi> Jim...agree
[16:17] <+rickf_away> which all comes back to having a plan, sticking to the plan, changing with the market conditions, not being married to one technique, and accepting that a trade can move against you for a bit before going in your direction
[16:17] <@NihabaAshi> I'm sure recently you've guys seen me complaining on a few "directional obvious" moves.
[16:18] <+JimL14> its all happening so fast that a normal person is in circles & just stops to figureout what's going on
[16:18] <@NihabaAshi> I could be Long several times in a up movement of many points but my trades results as small losers on those Longs.
[16:18] <+Siddhartha> wider stops...
[16:19] <+JimL14> the computers DON'T STOP, they accelerate the transactions at virtually no transaction cost
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah but the problem with changing your stops to wide stops is that it's a "strong movement".
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> You usually don't know when they will stall or retrace.
[16:19] <@NihabaAshi> Simply, best to stay with whatever stops you're use to using and let the chips fall where they fall
[16:19] <+luffy> so u guys think tradings getting harder?
[16:20] <+JimL14> if you wien your stops, you better be right &/or have alot of capital
[16:20] <@NihabaAshi> Luffy...I'm not really trying to say it's harder...
[16:20] <+JimL14> if you move... your stops, sorry
[16:21] <@NihabaAshi> I'm leaning more to specifically saying we "need to learn more" because there's more complex things going on now that has a HUGE impact on the markets and price movement.
[16:21] <+Siddhartha> so wrbtrader, what you're saying is we're seeing more chop than we used to...
[16:21] <+luffy> ic
[16:21] <+Siddhartha> more randomised non directional volatility...
[16:22] <@NihabaAshi> Yes...more chop that's a big facade by these firms as they prepare/try to move the price in a particular direction.
[16:23] <@NihabaAshi> Also, don't be mistaken, he saids big firms are now competing more with each other this year in comparison to any other prior trading years.
[16:24] <@NihabaAshi> I plan on learning more about this over the next few months.
[16:24] <+luffy> they cant live off retailers
[16:24] <TraderG> who were they competing agains in prior years?
[16:24] <+JimL14> i agree with that, the institutions are each other, the retail traders are bubbles in the wake
[16:24] <+TraderG> against
[16:24] <@NihabaAshi> I think in prior years they tended to "help" each other.
[16:24] <+Siddhartha> I agree that if markets become more randomised in nature it's got to be harder to trade & consistently make money.... that stands to reason.
[16:24] <+Siddhartha> I blame Goldmans
[16:25] <@NihabaAshi> TraderG...just a guess on the following observations...
[16:25] <+Siddhartha> they almost own the market these days... and market microstructure is something they are very strong in... they had 46 $100m+ trading days the last quarter...
[16:26] <@NihabaAshi> The few institutional friends I have no longer talk about how they are doing things amongst each other and they are from different firms.
[16:26] <@NihabaAshi> In contrast, they each have no problem in telling "me" to be more careful.
[16:26] <+Siddhartha> all this said, the markets have always been, and always will be to some extent, crooked & manipulated...
[16:26] <+JimL14> the "start-up" hedge funds (ex Goldman, etc, etc) perfected the business model & now its being adopted by the GS etc in a bigger framework & across all financial markets & derivaties
[16:27] <+luffy> jim what's the model?
[16:27] <@NihabaAshi> Last of all, I asked him is this stuff going on in Eurex BUND or DAX...
[16:28] <@NihabaAshi> He said it will be at their firm because they will soon be hiring a few guys to specifically work those markets.
[16:28] <@NihabaAshi>
[16:28] <+luffy> damn
[16:28] <+Siddhartha> great!
[16:28] <+luffy> nothing is safe
[16:28] <+luffy> when u guys so microsturcture
[16:28] <+luffy> what do u mean exactly
[16:28] <+luffy> the smaller waves
[16:28] <+luffy> in price?
[16:29] <+luffy> like how price likes to test entries
[16:29] <+luffy> before taking off
[16:29] <+Siddhartha> I'll go back to selling teapots at the market...
[16:29] <+JimL14> algo-bot trading computers working micro slices of the market, making .0001 a trade
[16:29] <+luffy> k
[16:29] <@NihabaAshi> [16:08] <+rickf_away> i just posted a paper on that in the forums for anyone interested.
[16:29] <+Siddhartha> luffy... down to tick level... market structure when you at tick level trading...
[16:29] <+luffy> link?
[16:29] <+luffy> ok
[16:29] <@NihabaAshi> rickf...please post a link...thanks.
[16:29] <+rickf_away> sec
[16:30] <+rickf_away> viewtopic.php?f=41&t=265&p=281#p281
[16:32] <+luffy> thnx
[16:32] <+rickf_away> np
[16:32] <+JimL14> there's several excellent papers out there from several hedge funds geeks that got crushed by the natural course of competition in the last fall in markets, sort of spilling the beans, but from what I've read its only the tip of the iceberg of whats really going on & what's going to happen as GS & others look for New ways to make money
[16:32] <+rickf_away> hey TraderG is that you in TOS chat with me? lol
[16:34] <+luffy> jim if u got anything i'd love to read them... can u plz post in the forum?
[16:34] <@NihabaAshi> thanks rickf
[16:34] <+rickf_away> np
[16:34] <+luffy> rick good stuff man
[16:34] <+rickf_away> ty
[16:35] <+Siddhartha> yeah, I mean the flip side of this stuff is that so many quant funds got absolutely destroyed last year...
[16:35] <+Siddhartha> thanks rick.
[16:35] <+rickf_away>
[16:36] <+luffy> can human eyes dtect these algos...
[16:36] <+TraderG> I am reading the file you refered 2 rickf. I am wondering. How is it that the people who wright these papers with so much apparent authority, have to write them in the first place instead of just using the knowledge to profit from it....
[16:36] <+Siddhartha> depends what sort of algos they are luffy... is they are based on esoteric mathematical models... probably not.
[16:36] <+JimL14> what I'm hoping (for self preservation) is that once it all settles down the natural course of auction market theory will resume & we can just see some of the market tells via PA & divergences and follow along just behind the big moves and grab a few ticks at a time
[16:37] <+Siddhartha> JimL14... are you finding it tougher...
[16:37] <+luffy> i've been trying to look at the tick for div
[16:37] <+rickf_away> G -- it's analysis not a trading technique per se
[16:37] <+rickf_away> so not surprising at all to see someone say "this is how the game is played"
[16:37] <+luffy> at key points in the mkt... so far its tough
[16:37] <+luffy> seems to be after the fact...
[16:37] <+rickf_away> cuz they know how it's played and can play around it
[16:38] <+JimL14> Luffy i don't save anyhting (cause i can't do anything about it) do a Google serach of follow zerohedge, alphatrader, safe haven etc there filled with this stuff
[16:38] <+Siddhartha> i worked for merrill & barcap for 11 years doing statistical arbitrage among other things... i met a lot of very smart guys who wrote & developed models that didn't make a bean... double PhD's in maths...
[16:39] <+luffy> jim thnkx
[16:39] <+luffy> rick, u mean they make fake readings on tick?
[16:39] <+rickf_away> *shrugh*
[16:39] <+luffy> sid, are u englightened
[16:39] <+rickf_away> Sid -- maybe it's cuz these folks embrace the SCIENCE of trading and not the ART of trading
[16:39] <+luffy> haha
[16:39] <+rickf_away> since they have such high volume needs they can't look @ the ART but need to automoate the SCIENCE
[16:40] <+rickf_away>
[16:41] <+Siddhartha> of course this is just the tip of the iceberg... they slice & dice it anyway you want...
[16:41] <+JimL14> for me so far the NYSE tick is still working, the ADD and U/D vol works (not as timely), but i'm starting to try learn forex also to prepare for loss of
[16:42] <+Siddhartha> rickf... well, those are my thoughts exactly... the stuff they do you can only do with zero cost, a ton of client flow, and a shed load of ammo...
[16:43] <+rickf_away> yupper
[16:44] <+luffy> hmmm maybe i shoulda went and got that mfe and be a better programmer
[16:44] <+Siddhartha> masters in finaancial engineering...
[16:44] <@NihabaAshi>
[16:44] <+luffy> thought discretionary wont need all that mumble jumbo
[16:44] <+luffy> yea
[16:44] <+luffy> i looked at the curriculum
[16:44] <+Siddhartha> I almost did one at berkley myself... bailed at the last minute
[16:44] <+luffy> didn't think it would hlep me trade
[16:44] <+JimL14> I started out 3 yrs ago thinking I could swing trade emins for a living, everyone teacher/trader said it was possible, now I'm trading (off & on real/sim) range charts & intraday scalping the divergences & universal patterns in the eminis, gold, oil, bonds & currencies
[16:45] <+Siddhartha> luffy, I don't think it will...
[16:45] <+TraderG> does any one here have an explanation of how is it possible for most of the index futures to move together almost down to the tick?
[16:45] <+luffy> same here i almost did one
[16:45] <@NihabaAshi> I plan to visit the offices of a few pals in the next few months to see if things have "really change" or if they are just smoking more dope.
[16:45] <@NihabaAshi> I suspect both
[16:46] <+Siddhartha> trader G... yes. they have automated index arbitrage models keeping these things locked to their stock indices... and endless spread models trading between the indices...
[16:46] <+Siddhartha> ;-)
[16:46] <+Siddhartha> well, lets buy them some stronger weed...!
[16:46] <@NihabaAshi>
[16:46] <+luffy> what happened to the idea if u flipped a coin at a pivot with big rr and small stop i'll win expected payoff
[16:47] <+luffy> so simple..
[16:47] <+TraderG> would i be correct assuming that these companies have a different data feed coming from the exchanges comoared with what we as retail traders get?
[16:47] <+JimL14> exactely, that's what I was told when I started looking 5 yrs ago
[16:48] <@NihabaAshi> TraderG...we retail folks DO NOT have the same exchange feeds as institutional traders.
[16:48] <+luffy> dtn iq is not institutional level?
[16:48] <+Siddhartha> I tell you, since I left the 'biz' and joined the retail trading community, I have been endlessly impressed by the quality of the people at the top, their ability to think outside the box, be creative, ingenious etc... I met a lot of smart people in the 'biz' but it definately locks you into certain thought patterns... sometimes you can't see the wood for the trees from in there!
[16:48] <@NihabaAshi> They have a distinct advantage there.
[16:49] <+TraderG> the latency of the computer of a retail trader will not allow any such trading aas mentioned in the article not to mention the commisions that we pay.
[16:49] <@NihabaAshi> Yeah...commission disadvantage is a big killer.
[16:49] <+luffy> i'm curious if these computer trading is killing off patterns...
[16:49] <+Siddhartha> Indeed Trader G. DTN is not a market microstructure feed...
[16:49] <+luffy> or if i'm better off looking at 10 different charts for patterns that i know
[16:50] <+luffy> since they come less and less often
[16:50] <+JimL14> if you read the HFT & flash stuff the hedge funds invest $millions in people, computers, servers physically right next to the exhcnages to cut latency & are upgrading every couple of months
[16:50] <@NihabaAshi> I plan on learing more and watching more of the chop price action we see just before those volatility spikes...
[16:50] <+Siddhartha> these guys get so utterly obsessed about their connection speed they worry about the length of the cables they use as a backbone to the exchange.... that's how much they care
[16:50] <+TraderG> what is DTN?
[16:50] <@NihabaAshi> May be something useful there or something new to learn.
[16:50] <+Siddhartha> IQ Feed
[16:50] <+TraderG> ?
[16:51] <+Siddhartha> It's a data feed... DTN IQ...
[16:51] <+Siddhartha> data provider
[16:51] <+TraderG> ok thanks
[16:51] <+TraderG> would't all data come from the CME?
[16:52] <+TraderG> or does DTN bypass the CME?
[16:52] <@NihabaAshi> Gotta go guys...hopefully this conversation will spark more research to learn more of what's going on the inside to better understand things if that's even possible.
[16:52] * NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away
[16:52] <+luffy> cya
[16:52] <+Siddhartha> yeah... but the top firms have direct links, with their own hardware... and as I say, they literally care how close their boxes are to the xchange
[16:52] <+Forex2stay_Away> just catching up on the topic
[16:53] <+luffy> that's crazy
[16:53] <+Forex2stay_Away> i still think no matter what game they play they can't do it without leaving foot prints...volume
[16:53] <+rickf_away> cya tomorrow folks -- gonna head out to dinner w/friends in a bit
[16:53] <+luffy> true
[16:53] <+Siddhartha> forex... I agree. it's just new patterns
[16:53] <+JimL14> i read one paper that said the best quants roll out a complete new hardware sytem with each new algo program (it take about 6mos to create) they get newset equip to work with there latest model & roll to the next
[16:53] <+TraderG> that is what I thought before I knew about DTN
[16:53] <+TraderG> so that means that their systems collect data parrallel to the CME machines?
[16:53] <+Forex2stay_Away> for example if price is going down on low volume you know there is no supply there, so someone is trying to push it on lite volume
[16:54] <+Siddhartha> forex... you know much about VSA...
[16:54] <+luffy> that in context of the price action
[16:54] <+luffy> vsa is good stuff
[16:54] <+Forex2stay_Away> not an expert, but can tell when something doesn't look right
[16:54] <+Siddhartha> well, both on it's own, and together with wrbtrader's stuff...
[16:54] <+Forex2stay_Away> yep
[16:55] <+Forex2stay_Away> use it with wrbtrader's stuff
[16:55] <+luffy> whats wrbtrader's stuff?
[16:55] <+TraderG> )
[16:55] <+Siddhartha> I've read alot about VSA... definately something there I think... I'm yet to exploit it... but I def. think it could add something to wrbtrader's stuff somewhere...
[16:55] <+Forex2stay_Away> i think it just comes down to nowing your instrument and what a typical 5m candle/bar/volume should be
[16:55] <+JimL14> that's why I same that hopefully it will all balance out over time & eventhough its all moving so fast that you maynot be able to the indivual #'S that patterns & divergences will continue to appear
[16:56] <+Siddhartha> luffy... you've been to wrbtrader's website right... strategylab....
[16:56] <+luffy> yea
[16:56] <+luffy> i'm on it now...
[16:56] <+luffy> tools of the trade?
[16:56] <+luffy> section
[16:56] <+Siddhartha> sorry... http://www.thestrategylab.com
[16:56] <+luffy> yup there
[16:56] <+TraderG> I wrote a script that devides the volume of a bar by the price range of the bar. >>> no conclusions at all
[16:57] <+TraderG> so the tipical volume is useless. at least 2 me
[16:57] <+luffy> ic to see the effot
[16:57] <+Siddhartha> TraderG... have you read much about VSA...
[16:57] <+luffy> how well vol is working through price
[16:57] <+luffy> i thought of that concept alot
[16:57] <+Forex2stay_Away> okay got to really get...will keep this up in case more conversation on this topic...hopefully it will resume tomorrow
[16:58] <+Forex2stay_Away> later all
[16:58] <+luffy> but it seems the effort could change direciton really quick
[16:58] <+luffy> later
[16:58] <+Siddhartha> a very good book (apparently) on volume, which I am yet to read, is this one...
[16:59] <+Siddhartha> http://www.amazon.com/Value-Time-Tradin ... 923&sr=8-1
[16:59] <+Siddhartha> too many on my 'to read' list
[17:00] <+JimL14> gotta run, my hope/plan is that its useless to understand the why & how, but to survive to be able to watch, recognize, & follow a shorttime (e.i. a few ticks or pts) and keep doing it for as long as another method is required bye guys
[17:00] <+luffy> cya
[17:00] <+luffy> thanks sid
[17:00] <+luffy> i'll look into that book
[17:01] <+luffy> do u have it already?
[17:02] <+TraderG> Sid, r u trading manually or auto-trade?
[17:08] <+luffy> have u guys all bought wrbtrader's traiding lessons?
[17:09] <+TraderG> me y
[17:09] <+luffy> some of u guys were talkinga bout trading with wrbtrader's stuff
[17:10] <+luffy> so i'm assume that's his lessons he sells right
[17:12] <+TraderG> http://www.effectivevolume.eu/
[17:13] <+luffy> who's that?
[17:14] <+TraderG> that is a link to the web site of the author of the book that Sid mentioned
[17:14] <+luffy> k
[17:15] <+luffy> i'm very skeptical already
[17:15] <+luffy> book + site + pay more
[17:15] <+luffy> hmmm
[17:21] <+TraderG> this guy collect money for some sick children fund, or atleast that is what he sais
[17:21] <+TraderG> could be a scam
[17:22] <+TraderG> anyway, c u guys 2morrow
[17:26] <@X> #FuturesTrades Info -> You must read #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits @ viewtopic.php?f=5&t=36 and TOU policy @ viewtopic.php?f=2&t=55 to prevent any misunderstandings.
[17:28] <+luffy> cya
[17:28] <+luffy> wrbtrader is a baller out of control http://www.thestrategylab.com/tsl/forum ... m.php?f=10

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