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#FuturesTrades December 4th Monday 2006 Trade Log

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In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts for the trading day.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+10.10 +0.0000

$1,010.00 $0.00

Trading Perspective

Profit/Loss Blotter

It was a mentally slow trading day for me due to lack of sleep for the past four days.

Regardless, I took it easy and pick my spots...was only aggressive on one trade in comparison to the other trades I took today.

In fact, it was my last trade of the day and it had my largest position size of the trading day.

Unfortunately, I had an appointment today and had to exit the position very early prior to any profit targets being reached...a target of 798.00

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of December...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


Session Start: Mon Dec 04 09:27:33 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:27

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<eminitrader> hi niha,pj 09:28

<PapaJon> heya et.. wb 09:30

<eminitrader> thx pj :))

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 785.90 -> large size 09:31

Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 787.20 --> + 1.3 09:37

Exited ER2 Long @ 787.00 --> + 1.1 09:38

holding a few 09:39

Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 786.90 --> + 1 09:40

be right back

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 09:41

<RussellDaytrade> i think there is a setup, 783.5 in approx 35

<pat255> gm all 09:42

<RussellDaytrade> nq down 8 and es 5 from highs, if these turn out to be the highs,etc, ie, prices don't go higher in a meaningful way 09:44

<szubaark> ? 09:45

Shorts NQ @ 1787.50 «« paper »» 09:46

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 787.1 «« paper »»

<yo> gm all 09:49

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1787.75 --> - 0.25 «« paper »» 09:52

Buys NQ @ 1788.50 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts NQ @ 1787.5 «« paper »» 09:54

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1786.75 --> - 1.75 «« paper »» 09:55

Shorts NQ @ 1786.75 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1405.75 10:02

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1793 --> - 6.25 «« paper »» 10:04

Buys NQ @ 1793 «« paper »»

real tough opening AGain 10:05

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 790.1 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts NQ @ 1793.25 -> Add «« paper »»

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 789.1 --> + 1 «« paper »» 10:12

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1404.25 --> + 1.5 10:15

<pat255> vn emini ...

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* NihabaAshi_away is now known as NihabaAshi

<eminitrader> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1505.75

thx pat

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 789.10 -> small size

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1793 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:16

:((

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 788.80 --> + 0.3

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 788.60 --> + 0.5 10:17

<eminitrader> be back

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1798 «« paper »» 10:24

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1505.75 --> - 100

oops..

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1405.75 --> 0

<szubaark> tough to catch this.. quick sudden volatility spikes tp upside 10:26

<eminitrader> yep...tough holding shorts in this mrkt... 10:27

Long ES @ 1404.25 10:30

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:31

<eminitrader> Exited ES Long @ 1404.25 --> 0 10:33

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1404.25

<szubaark> im scared to Short.. my last Short got hit with a -6 Volatility spike to upside :(( 10:34

<eminitrader> mine was a good signal szu...will hold this for at least a 2 pointer

<szubaark> Double Top? 10:35

<eminitrader> kinda ...with chart pattern breaking 1404.25

Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1402.25 --> + 2 10:38

<szubaark> nice 10:39

<eminitrader> thx szu

<szubaark> Im "hoping" this up trend is still intact :(( 10:40

<eminitrader> nice short pattern on the NQ @ 97 also

<Brutus> Jpearl what are the settings you use for the Linear regression 5min chart? how many bars? thx

<eminitrader> 3 min @ 10:36

<jperl> I don't use linear regression.....

I use std dev of VWAP line 10:41

<Brutus> Oh OK

<jperl> ER2 sitting on VWAP 788.32

<eminitrader> have a bearish bias this wk szu ..ES may retest 1380's

<jperl> Messy day....I think I have had enough for now..... 10:42

here are the executions....

<eminitrader> looks like it jper1 ...with no reprts due ...may chop

<jperl> http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-12-04/JP ERL_0113.png 10:43

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1402.75 --> + 1.5 10:47

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1404.25 --> 0 10:52

<RussellDaytrade> jp, will you briefly explain Std Dev? and how it is calculated? the short version. the quick read i get on it is that it = approx 3.5 bucks or so on the er. essentially, i am knowing how it's derived, and the usual values, so that in my mind i can quickly assess that if it has moved a set amount, i will know where it is in relation to std dev's, etc, and then from there evaluate the liklyhood of a reversal. thx 10:55

<jperl> The std deviation is computed by taking the difference between each price and the present VWAP... 10:57

for all prices since the start of the day.....

squaring each difference..... 10:58

multiply by the volume for each price.... 11:00

summing that all up and divide by the total volume.... 11:01

and then taking the square root

sounds complicated but its not

standard formula for standard deviation of data

<RussellDaytrade> well, makes me wish i had paid more attention in math class!

<jperl> let me see if I can find a reference.....sec 11:03

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Standard_de viation 11:04

<RussellDaytrade> ok, lets try it this way. in your experience, would you say that 1 std dev in the er usually equals about .45-.50% or so? so that if has dropped or climbed in price by that much, (or approx 3.5-3.75), one can quickly assess that it moved 1 std dev, and if moves 7-8 bucks, it has moved 2 std dev's, and so on? or do yuo think it varies by a significant difference from the usual values to make a notable difference, dollarwi 11:06

<jperl> unfortunately no 11:07

the STd dev is dynamic throughout the day... 11:08

right now it is 18 ticks

<szubaark> exit stop set NQ @ 1798 «« paper »» 11:10

Russell where is your Stop on your Shorts? 11:11

<RussellDaytrade> thx for all that info. have you established any guidelines fro estimating the probalities of reversals if/when price has moved 1, 2, or 3 std dev's, etc? 11:12

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1804 --> + 6 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 794.2 -> Add «« paper »» 11:13

<jperl> simple answer to your question is no

<RussellDaytrade> short 2 at ap of 791.3

on paper. 11:14

<szubaark> if this is a all day up move with no retracements Shorts will get cooked

<RussellDaytrade> did short nq this am 1798.25, cover at 1794.75

<jperl> But I watch the price action and Time and Sales when price reaches a std dev line

I also don't trade when price is near VWAP itself 11:15

<Brutus> SS

Shorts ER2 @ 795.6

Shorts ER2 @ 795.6

<szubaark> time for chop... 11:16

* szubaark is now known as szubaark-away

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1408.75 11:18

<RussellDaytrade> i recently reas somewhere, that when price moves 2 std dev's, there is approx 98% chance that it will reverse at that point. thought you may have some first-hand experience that coroboates that.

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1407.75 --> + 1 11:33

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 795.40 -> small size 11:34

<jperl> I would take that with a grain of salt RD 11:35

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 795.10 --> + 0.3 11:36

<yo> gij short dien 5 ma 5

<RussellDaytrade> ok, thx jp. 11:37

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 795.1 --> + 0.5 11:38

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:43

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1406.75 --> + 2

<pat255> nice emini ..got out way early ...dang 11:44

<eminitrader> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1408.75

thx pat ..patience

was the key here

<pat255> yes ....this is what happens i play 1 ctrct ... 11:45

<eminitrader> when shorting this mrkt, guess any # of ticks r okay :)

<pat255> need to play min 2 ctrcts ... 11:46

<Brutus> Just a quick thought, anyone looked at trading one contract and using the SPY, QQQQ or IWM to do a partial exit, what would be the cost and correlation, # of shares? 12:13

The partial exit would just be an option if needed. 12:16

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1407.75 -> Add 12:18

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1406.50 --> + 1.25 12:28

Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1407.75 --> + 1 12:32

<pat255> c u all later back to office..ty 12:45

<eminitrader> later pat 12:46

<pat255> later emini

<Brutus> eminitrader - how long have you been trading/emini's ? 12:54

<eminitrader> 5 yrs brutus

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:55

<Brutus> How long have you been profitable on the eminis, if you dont mind me asking?

<eminitrader> been consistantly profitable ( meaning + 10k per month min ) from feb of this yr 12:57

<Brutus> Thats great, keep it up :)

<eminitrader> thx but had to go thru hell and back to get here :)) 12:58

<Brutus> also, I like your trading style

<eminitrader> u mean the scalping ?

<Brutus> Yes 12:59

<eminitrader> simple method .. i .identify swings, wait for pullbacks, enter trade depending on profit factor...use price action combined with fibs and ma...thats abt it 13:01

for countertrends i use key supp/res with price action 13:02

took me 4 + yrs to figure out MY holy grail :)) 13:03

<Brutus> Holy grail - meaning indicator or just general method? 13:04

<eminitrader> the entire combo ...risk mgmt/position sizing etc.............. 13:05

basically - how to make money in the mrkts 13:06

<jperl> that's about par for the course

<eminitrader> for my personality

lol

<Brutus> great EMT :) 13:08

<eminitrader> yep..certainly gives a great feeling ...key is making it fir ur style/personality ...thats when u really start enjoying trading ...and the moolah that comes in is a added bonus 13:09

<Brutus> NQ lagging, Naz up 1.5, Rus up 1.8 Spx .76 13:10

%

<pdays> Shorts YM @ 12190 13:12

<eminitrader> uptrend for the day now cofirmed for the ES only longs from now on for me...unless key supp is taken out for trend to change today

Long ES @ 1408.25 13:16

<RussellDaytrade> i think the markets are gonna fal over the next hour and a hlf, er as much as 12 bucks 13:21

<Brutus> RD your question on 2 std deviations, yeah I have seen that as well and I think a few traders follow it

<eminitrader> any particular reason ?

<pdays> Covered all YM Short @ 12285 --> - 95

oops 13:22

<Brutus> I have recording 1 std dev on 30 bars as its a dynamic thing

have = am

<RussellDaytrade> would like to do more work on that std dev, get more familiar with it.

<Brutus> do a ET search on steve46 and standard deviation 13:23

<eminitrader> inot safe to go against uptrend , given this mrkt..not ultill change in trend

<RussellDaytrade> emini, it is mostly derived from my perpspective that the markets spend an alomost equivalent amount of time going up as going down, in time and price. 13:24

<Brutus> Soryy I mean linear regression, keep mixing it up, doh

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1409.25 --> + 1

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<Brutus> Search steve46 and linear regression 13:25

<eminitrader> thx RD ...was just expressing my feel

<RussellDaytrade> for example, today, if one draws a line from the open at 783, to the center point of todays highs(between the double top, approx 12:17 et) and calls that the balance point, strike a vertical line there extending to near todays lows (783), and then measure out an near equal price giveback in approx the equal time, etc. now, i admit it seems unlikely, and it doesn't happen all the time, but it occurs often enough to pay attent 13:28

hope that helps.

also, just to keep things interesting, it can be, (and most often is) a bit of a 'moving target', and must be treated as such, and viewed as such. so, for example, i first thought today the balance point may be at the first highs of 11:24. then i amended that to the split between the highs. and there is the possibility that it may change again to the highs at 1:05, or even furhter out. just saying what and where i think it w 13:35

like i said, it seems unlikely, and it usually does. that much is constant!

curious how you derive your long only call on es, when you have time to elaborate. 13:37

<eminitrader> Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1412.50 --> + 4.25 13:44

my charts read a cofirmation of uptrend on break of 1409.25 @ 1:06 pm 13:46

purely price action ...thats abt it

entry was based on 40% fib retrace @ 1408.25 13:48

Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1411.75 --> + 3.5 13:56

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:07

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1410.25 14:22

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 795.00 -> small size 14:23

<RussellDaytrade> feels like its rolled over to me. bottoms tomorrow morning a couple hours into the day.

thats my best guess at this time. 14:25

<Brutus> Im thinking tomorrow could be a strong uptrend day RD

<eminitrader> Es still in uptrend will prolly retrace till 1407.75 or 1406.25...if it breaks that then change in trend...my 2 cents :) 14:26

<RussellDaytrade> ok, got a basis fro that?

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 795.30 -> Add 14:28

<RussellDaytrade> seems like we may already have trendchnaged, er below 80ema, with both going lower. 14:29

it had been above it vurtuallty all day.

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<eminitrader> not in the ES and NQ so far ...dont know if ER will pull it down but as of now still abull 14:30

<Brutus> SPX and R2k mad new yearly highs today

<szubaark-away> heeh.. i remember Niha saying pullbacks will have small even bodies when in a trend.. thats what we have

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 796.00 --> - 1.7 14:31

<RussellDaytrade> ok, try this one on for size, you have to use some imagiantion for this, but i have seen this unfold many times...

<szubaark-away> all White WRB to the upside. 14:32

<NihabaAshi> That's a -1.00 and a -0.70

<Brutus> Also Fiday 0830 Nov Non-farm Payrolls

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 796.00 -> large size 14:33

<szubaark-away> My biggest losing days were caused by my Stop eating a WRB spike with 5-8 Points

<RussellDaytrade> if the market were going to go higher in the pm/close, it usually would have pulled back earlier in the day, before agthering steram again as it goes into close. if, on the other hand, it keeps rallying beyond the timeframe it usually pullsback, it signifies a chamge in normal dynamic...

i know it seems counter-intuitive. right now, it has continued tro rally, instead of a pullback. makes me think we've seen the highs for the day and the move, and we'll go lower, close lower,perhaps 790ish, and finish a downmove tomorrow am. 14:35

<Brutus> RD down into the close does not have to indicate tomorrow being down 14:36

<RussellDaytrade> true, brut, it would just mark the cahrt in a manner that creates a balancing appearance, which i think will continue to manifest until it is (mostly) fulfilled. 14:38

same sceanrio i outlined earlier, just the time for it has advanced forward in time soem. 14:39

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 795.80 -> Add 14:41

<eminitrader> exit stop raised ES @ 1409.75

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 796.30 --> + 0.5 14:46

Holding remainder of original position.

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1411.75 --> + 1.5 14:47

exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1410.25 14:49

<NihabaAshi> Longs just lost the volatility for support...hopefully it returns in our favor.

I have an appointment here soon...will need to cut this trade short prior to reaching any profit target goals. 14:52

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 796.50 --> + 0.5 14:53

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1412.25 --> + 2 14:55

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 796.90 --> + 0.9

Take care and see all tomorrow.

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

<eminitrader> exit stop raised ES @ 1410.75 15:01

Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1410.75 --> + 0.5 15:09

see u all tommorow guys...good trading 15:10

<RussellDaytrade> feels like its losing enertia with every thrust. 15:12

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:16

<yvberj> Sht ER 795. Covered 795 15:35

<yo> gn all 16:07

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:28

* DisconnectedSession Close: Mon Dec 04 18:15:32 2006 18:15

Google:

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