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#FuturesTrades October 31st Tuesday 2006 Trade Log

#FuturesTrades is a private and free realtime trading posting chat room on the IRC Othernet server that allows traders from all over the world to communicate.

Click here for the instructions on gaining access to #FuturesTrades.

In addition, trades posted by members of #FuturesTrades in the below trade post chat log are by traders that do not have access to TheStrategyLab.com strategies except for NihabaAshi.

Fee-based clients of TheStrategyLab.com strategies use the private IRC rooms called #TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL.

Further, you'll find below the chat room time stamped text log of realtime trades (real money and simulator) that were posted by full-time, part-time traders from around the world and the timestamp is eastern standard time (est).

Also, below NihabaAshi's trading blog like comments, you can read the time stamped trades (prices, entries, exits et cetera) and market discussions that sometimes contains trading tips or insights that are more useful than what you will see at any other futures blog or chat room.

Trading Blog Below is not your traditional trader's blog in the usual blog format. However, you will find informative commentary on a few occasions as time permits and such will contain trading tips that should help your trading as I attempt to sum up my thoughts as I traversed from the first trade to the last trade that was posted in #FuturesTrades realtime trade posting chat room.

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ER2 EuroFX EC

+29.40 +0.0000

$2,940.00 $0.00

Volatility Analysis

Profit/Loss Blotter

The month of October has finally come to an end and its another year where the high probability bullish price action for October has occurred to continue its presence as a key market seasonal pattern.

Today I was very aggressive as planned and did some good size when it was needed.

Another way to look at it...there's no overtrading in October for me.

Thus, key to today's profits were the large size position on profitable trades (increasing my size when the volatility had returned in the late afternoon trading size) in comparison to the large size positions in the morning session and early afternoon trading session.

Simply, the volatility was not good most of the trading day until the late afternoon trading session.

Luckily I was still trading and was able to exploit the volatility when it appeared late in the afternoon trading session to dig myself out of the red and finish the day via reaching my profit goal for the day although the numbers posted above don't tell the entire store...a lot of it belongs to the broker via commissions.

End of the Month Summary:

* I can better manage my losses and profits via position size management that's a direct result of Volatility Analysis.

Today's results (real money and simulator trading) shown above are that of NihabaAshi only. To see his total accumulated points for the month of October...click here. To see results for the months of 2006 and prior years...click here.

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to involve interconnecting key price action of different markets and such is represented by a particular type of price action from one of the key markets. You can view the charts and their clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.

Session Start: Tue Oct 31 09:29:31 2006Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now #FuturesTrades purpose and benefits...click here. 09:29

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<piet> gm all 09:30

<pat255> gm niha..

still bullish niha?

<PapaJon> gm all

<NihabaAshi> Good morning all.

<eminitrader> morn all

<NihabaAshi> pat255...yes...

<pat255> emini...

<asuni> gm niha, emini, papa, gm all

<eminitrader> hi pat .asuni 09:31

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 775.9

Shorts ER2 @ 776.2 -> Add

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 775.80 -> medium size 09:33

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1386.75 09:35

<NihabaAshi> :(

ER2 should have broken further to the upside by now. 09:36

<szubaark> Globex high Stop run?

<NihabaAshi> Volatility dropping :(

<Brutus> Covered all ER2 Short @ 775.4 --> + 1.3

<NihabaAshi> I do have the 10am est key economic reports pending "volatility" to help me if I'm stopped out for a loss. 09:37

<jperl> Very green opening this morning for the TotalMarket....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-31/JP ERL_011.png 09:38

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 774.90 --> - 0.9 09:39

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 774.90

<yo> gm 09:40

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 774.00 --> + 0.9 09:41

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1384.75 --> + 2

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 773.70 --> + 1.2

Went from a medium size Long to a large size Short...still holding 3 contracts. 09:42

Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 774.70 --> + 0.2 09:43

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<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1385.25 --> + 1.5

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1747 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> exit stop moved to breakeven ES @ 1386.75

<jperl> ER2 at VWAP 775.30 09:44

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<jperl> YM at VWAP 12139

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 774.80 -> medium size

Long ER2 @ 774.10 -> Add 09:46

<jperl> all indices still green 09:47

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1743.75 --> - 3.25 «« paper »» 09:49

Shorts NQ @ 1743.75 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Volatility back to being equal again... 09:51

Be very careful of the chop :(

<pat255> yes staying out .. 09:52

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 773.5 09:54

Exited ER2 Long @ 773.6 --> + 0.1 09:56

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 773.50 -> Add 09:58

<szubaark> frikin chop

Covered all Short NQ at 1745 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»

Buys NQ @ 1745 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 774.50 --> + 1 09:59

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1743 --> - 2 «« paper »» 10:00

:(((

Shorts NQ @ 1743 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1382.75 --> + 4 10:01

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 773.30 -> Add

Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 773.70 --> + 0.4 10:02

Volatility slowly declining...making it too risky to ADD to protect my original position. 10:05

Will try to dump some at a small profit to reduce my risk exposure that's slowly increasing now. (Volatility Analysis) 10:06

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1744.50 --> - 1.5 «« paper »»

:((

Buys NQ @ 1744.50 «« paper »»

Brutal Chop 10:07

<NihabaAshi> Exited all ER2 Long @ 772.60 --> - 2.2

szu...agree...had to dump it all to get a fresh perspective. 10:08

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1741 --> - 3.5 «« paper »»

Shorts NQ @ 1741 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 772.10 -> large size 10:09

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 772.0

<NihabaAshi> :( 10:10

Geeesh

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 772.5 --> + 0.5 10:11

Looks close to a short term bottom 10:12

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 772.00 --> + 0.1 10:13

<szubaark> one of those days "Equalizer" days :((

<NihabaAshi> Yep...so far.

<PapaJon> There seems to be more and more of those days with er... :( 10:14

<NihabaAshi> However, we got too many key market events for the remainder of the week for this volatility to keep that "equalizing" pace too long. (Volatility Analysis)

<PapaJon> I suspect more and more scalping going on that contributes to the chop

<NihabaAshi> Agree...looks like quick trades may be the key today so far. 10:15

<PapaJon> yep.. seems so

<ItalianSharp> papjon, i dont think ER2 looks very attractive to scalpers...its the most volatile and less liquid of all markets...ES and NQ are much better for scalping...with ES being the king

<PapaJon> not necessarily IS... the volitility of er and $value of each move compared to the other eminis make it more attractive 10:17

ie: when es moves from a low to a high of say 3pts ($150), ER2 (in that same move) moves arouind 2.8 pts ($280) 10:18

but.. i am not typically a scalper.. so.. what the heck do i know???

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 772.0

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 771.70 -> large size 10:20

I'm upping my time frame to help with my patience...although my risk is a little larger because of such. 10:21

<pat255> geez niha u have guts to go S here ... 10:22

<NihabaAshi> Especially while I'm still bullish.

<pat255> yes that too...

<PapaJon> its halloween.. niha is jekle/hyde 10:23

<NihabaAshi> Only problem with my bullish bias is that I haven't had any Bullish Signals to support it...just intuition trades on such so far.

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 772.6 --> + 0.6 10:24

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 771.60 -> Add 10:25

Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 770.90 --> + 0.7 10:26

That gets me profitable for the day. 10:27

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 770.8

<pat255> nice niha ...oh man ..

<szubaark> nice Niha

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 771.00 --> + 0.7

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 771.3 --> + 0.5

<szubaark> Covered all Short NQ at 1738.25 --> + 2.75 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 771.50 --> + 0.2 10:28

Still in the red hole via commissions...

Only the broker making money today so far.

<WannaBeBOS> im sure they appreciate it

<pat255> yeah..

<NihabaAshi> :) 10:29

<silo1> hi gang

<pat255> dang i couln not take S where u too niha..

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1740.25 «« paper »»

<silo1> hey szu, how's trading so far 10:30

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 772.40 -> medium size

<szubaark> TOUGH.. Losing day so far :((

<NihabaAshi> szu...I don't mind trading days like today as long as I get my 1-3 big profitable days per month to make it all worthwhile. 10:31

Trading days like today gives us the "needed trading experience" to have a few very good trading days per month. 10:32

Difficulty at the 773.00 price area :( 10:33

<silo1> niha is having a tough time today as well? 10:36

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 773.00 --> + 0.6

Yes...when you see me getting ticks for profits instead of points...

<silo1> is it because the market moved unpredictably today? gap up then went lower than yesterday's close?

<NihabaAshi> I'm struggling just to stay ahead of the comission costs. 10:37

<Brutus> How much is a RT for you? 10:38

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 773.48

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead

<silo1> hey niha, how many trades do you do a day on an average and your usual commission for each day?

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 772.30 --> - 0.1 10:39

silo1...remove the month of October and I do about 4 trades per day about 3 contracts per trade. 10:40

<silo1> how much commission is 4 trades usually

<NihabaAshi> The month of October I bump my seize and number of trades up dramatically.

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1742.50 --> + 2.25 «« paper »»

<silo1> for t he size you trade

<NihabaAshi> You mean per rt...2.88 10:41

<yvberj> 3

<NihabaAshi> Depends on the broker I'm using.

As high as 3.50

<jperl> YM at VWAP 12113

<NihabaAshi> Meant per side...not rt.

<silo1> and you usually trade from 1-3 contracts?

<NihabaAshi> [10:40] <NihabaAshi> silo1...remove the month of October and I do about 4 trades per day about 3 contracts per trade. 10:42

<silo1> so one trade, in and out might cost you 6-18 bucks?

<NihabaAshi> Not sure where you got 6 from unless you meant my lowest number of trade. 10:44

<Brutus> With MB trading I pay $4.5 RT YM is $4.2

<NihabaAshi> I thought you asked for the average. 10:45

I average about 3 contracts per trade...that's about 17.28

<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1744.50 «« paper »» 10:46

<jperl> TotalMarket has now turned mixed....

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-31/JP ERL_012.png

<NihabaAshi> I average about 4 trades per day...that's about 69.12 in commissions per TRADING DAY on average.

That's my best case scenario because I have other brokers (back up brokers) that charge higher. 10:47

silo...there's more to it than commissions... 10:48

You also need to factor in how many missed trades your trading platform causes via whatever reasons.

I had a cheaper broker several years ago but overall...they were costing me more money in reference to Interactive Brokers (IB). 10:49

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 773.6 «« paper »» 10:50

<NihabaAshi> My point...there's comissions and there's the "real cost" of trading with someone.

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1384

<RussellDaytrade> Exited ER2 Long @ 774 --> + 0.4 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> The real cost has value once you have the opportunity to trade two brokers and do a comparison.

Here's another example of "Real Costs"... 10:51

I have a friend that use to use Esignal...

He always wanted to use Bloomberg but couldn't affort $1500 bucks per month or something like that. 10:52

Yet, when he sat down and tally up the "real cost" of using Esignal...it was costing him $2700 in missed profitable opportunities.

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:53

<asuni> agree niha, is very important what u are saying

<NihabaAshi> The math told him he could afford Bloomberg and he switched and haven't had any problems in 9 months of using Bloomberg.

<silo1> my trading platform is free basically

what do you mean missed trades?

<NihabaAshi> That's $1200 back in his pockets because he didn't miss a trade opportunity. 10:54

silo...missed opportunity causes are for example...

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1385 --> - 1

<NihabaAshi> Data vendor server is down for 5mins.

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1747 --> + 2.5 «« paper »»

<silo1> oh

i'm telling you man, mbtrading is pretty good

even premarket trades are free

<NihabaAshi> Data vendor server is sluggish or causing constant disconnections and so on.

silo...you don't trade futures. 10:55

<szubaark> Volatility picking up

<NihabaAshi> How do you know until you trade futures.

???

<silo1> i wouldn't

i'm just saying in general, mbtrading is pretty decent

<NihabaAshi> I don't think your broker stock data is on the same servers as the futures data.

My point...I've seen complaints about your brokers when trading futures... 10:56

<Brutus> MB Futures data lags on bursts

<silo1> ah i see

<NihabaAshi> I have not seen any complaints about your broker when trading stocks.

Overall, stock brokers have better data feeds in comparison to futures brokers. 10:57

Not sure why but that is the case.

<yvberj> Long ES @ 775.5 10:59

Error shld. be 774.5

And ER instead of ES

<pat255> what happened to les? missing for a while

<PapaJon> on vacation for 3 or so weeks 11:00

<pat255> ah ha k...thks papa

<PapaJon> yw

<szubaark> NQ on Steroids 11:01

<Brutus> Shorts ER2 @ 774.8

<NihabaAshi> This market bounced upwards off its lows on very equalized volatility and has been moving higher on the same type of volatility. (Volatility Analysis) 11:02

<Brutus> Covered ER2 Short @ 774.3 --> + 0.5 11:03

<NihabaAshi> Sometimes I call those "creeper trends"...very difficult to trade.

<szubaark> Niha NQ closing gap seemed to be the trigger

<NihabaAshi> ok 11:05

<yvberj> Exited all ES Long @ ER 774.0 --> + ER 774.0 - 775.5

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 774 -> small size «« paper »» 11:08

<pat255> k guys back to the office ty all... 11:15

later ..

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 773.60 -> small size 11:16

:(

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 773.7 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Trade error...need to dump this.

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 773.1 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 11:19

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 773.10 --> + 0.5

A very lucky trade and it enters my personal journal as such... 11:20

I'm usually profitable on my trade errors...somewhere around 59%

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<RussellDaytrade> lucky is good!

<NihabaAshi> It's the only reason why I "sit in the trade" to see what happens after I realize I made a mistake via seeing something that really wasn't there. 11:21

If the odds were against me...I would dump trades like that immediately. 11:22

<RussellDaytrade> i got lucky last time that occured to me

was closing a trade, and added to it instead

then it spiked up and i was instantly profitable 11:23

pure luck

<jperl> Done for the morning..... 11:26

http://charts.dacharts.com/2006-10-31/JP ERL_013.png

Not much ER2 action for me....mostly YM

Notice that MAE on the YM scale in.... 11:29

I had to go 72 ticks in the hole in order get out of it close to break even 11:30

Do I ever wonder whether these scale ins will blow up on me? 11:32

yes....and they do occaisionally

<RussellDaytrade> jp, on those occassions, how you found it was from adding to winners and price reversing, or from adding to losers and price continuing? 11:34

<jperl> But I do have a risk tolerance of about 2% of account size

Adding to what you call "losers"

On that Ym scale in I'm showing....would you call that a "winner" or a "loser" 11:35

For me a trade is a loser, if and only if it approaches my risk tolerance 11:36

<RussellDaytrade> did not see the scale in you reference, where, what is it? 11:37

<jperl> The YM trade starting at 10:02:46

scaled in two more times 11:38

10:16:31 and 10:23:02

<yvberj> So far it's a no win day for me and now we're going sideways.

<RussellDaytrade> ok, did not mean to imply that the trades were losers, just meant scaling into trades that continued to move in price beyond the expected price bounds, etc

<jperl> "expected price bounds" what do mean by that? 11:39

<RussellDaytrade> if you have a set scale in rate, with expectations that the price willremain within your expectations as you fill you scale in, and then it does not 11:40

<jperl> I don't have a set scale in rate 11:41

<RussellDaytrade> i was trying to get an idea whether your strategy works best when you add to trades that are positive or negative, in general 11:43

<jperl> ok

I usually don't add to a trade if it is going my way after entry

contrary to popular thinking

<RussellDaytrade> ok, thx, still developing my strategies, just wanting to get a sense of waht others may are doing that is working for them 11:45

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 771.8

<jperl> There are those who will tell you not to add to a "losing" trade, only to "winning" trades 11:47

I don't think this is correct

<RussellDaytrade> i think my own inclination, at this time, is to add to a position, even as it has moved against me in price 11:48

if i still feel the trade is correct

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 771.0 --> - 0.8 11:49

<jperl> Yes, I agree with that RD

It also requires you to rethink the whole concept of stops 11:50

<yvberj> What happened. I walked away for 5 mn. & the bottom fell out of the ER. 11:52

<jperl> That's because you walked away yvberj

<NihabaAshi> The failed counter-thrust has changed my bias from Bullish to Neutral. 11:53

<yvberj> Thanks. That's the story of my life.

<jperl> Sounds like you should enter trades every time you walk away

<yvberj> Good point. If I do that I can guarantee it will go the other way. 11:54

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 771.30 -> small size 11:59

My support level is much lower...making this a higher risk Long position than normal. 12:01

<szubaark> did u get a "pattern signal" or "intuition"? 12:02

<NihabaAshi> 767.90 to 768.80 is my current S/R Zone

<RussellDaytrade> if that was a low that holds, price target may reach 774 in approx an hour from low 12:03

<NihabaAshi> pat...pattern signal.

meant szu...it was a pattern signal.

<szubaark> ; 12:04

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 771.3 «« paper »» 12:05

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY)

<RussellDaytrade> will add on retest below 771

will sell above 772

<NihabaAshi> Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 771.70 --> + 0.4 12:07

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 770.8 -> Add «« paper »» 12:08

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 770.40 --> - 0.9 12:13

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 770.40

I'm short 5 contracts on the position reversal. 12:14

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 769.4 «« paper »» 12:15

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 769.20 --> + 1.2

<RussellDaytrade> add

<NihabaAshi> Holding 2 contracts

Got back my comissions from the broker on the exit :)

<RussellDaytrade> feels like a dicey tiem to be long

<NihabaAshi> Maybe I'll get lucky and dump a contract in my S/R Zone of 768.80 - 767.90 12:17

<RussellDaytrade> la 769.6 12:20

Long ER2 @ 769.6 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Tightning up my trailing stop. 12:24

<RussellDaytrade> will be happy to get 770.5

Exited all ER2 Long @ 770.4 --> + 1.8 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 770.20 --> + 0.2

2/3 of my profits today belongs to the broker :( 12:25

Not efficient trading. 12:26

<RussellDaytrade> will begin new scale in long below 769.7 12:27

Long ER2 @ 769.8 «« paper »» 12:29

Long ER2 @ 769.2 -> Add «« paper »» 12:30

* fseitun is now known as ItalianSharp 12:31

<RussellDaytrade> it that low holds, new target of 773 an hour from the first low, approx time and price 12:33

Long ER2 @ 770.2 -> Add «« paper »»

limiting myself to three bullets 12:35

Exited all ER2 Long @ 769.9 --> - 0.2 «« paper »»

768.9

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is now testing that Z/R Zone... 12:36

I'm sideline as long as it stays in that S/R Zone unless a Long signal appears near the lows of that zone.

Shorts ER2 @ 767.30 -> small size 12:38

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 767.4 «« paper »»

Long ER2 @ 766.9 -> Add «« paper »» 12:39

<Brutus> Long ER2 @ 766.9

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 766.80 --> + 0.5

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 766.80

Long 1 contract...not looking for much.

Exited ER2 Long @ 767.10 --> + 0.3 12:40

Trade exit error on that Long...

<RussellDaytrade> will sell 768 or near

<NihabaAshi> My finger slipped and I moved my trailing stop up too high by 2 ticks.

:)

I'm now Bearish in my Bias...although I should have been since 1105am est. 12:42

<RussellDaytrade> for the day? bearish? or longer timeframe? 12:44

<NihabaAshi> Just for today.

<RussellDaytrade> thx

<NihabaAshi> Overall until mid-November...I'm bullish.

<RussellDaytrade> ok

<NihabaAshi> Intraday bias currently bearish, short term bias until mid-November is very bullish and long term bias until mid January bullish but not as strong as my short term bias. 12:45

<RussellDaytrade> they're leaning on the offer, and it ain't going down, could be a bounce coming 12:48

<Brutus> Exited ER2 Long @ 767.5 --> + 0.6

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 766.6 -> Add «« paper »» 12:56

<NihabaAshi> Next s/r zone is 762.60 - 760.00 12:59

Shorts ER2 @ 766.20 -> small size 13:01

ER2 volatility dropping.

Covered ER2 Short @ 767.20 --> - 1 13:03

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 767.20

Volatility still dropping...expecting a volatility spike here soon.

Hopefully not downwards. 13:04

<RussellDaytrade> buy limit to enter long ER2 @ 769 «« paper »» 13:06

placing a buy above market to attract the price, at which point will cancel and sell what I am holding long 13:07

<NihabaAshi> :( 13:08

Didn't get the type of volatility spike I was looking for.

There's a good battle here with a good s/r zone above and a s/r zone below. 13:10

Price will eventually move out of this range into one of those s/r zones.

The one above has more of a price action attraction at the moment. 13:11

<RussellDaytrade> time seems to be standing still 13:14

<NihabaAshi> That's because volatility is trying to equalize again :(

<RussellDaytrade> r2 weak relative to dow today 13:15

Exited 1/3 ER2 Long @ 776.6 --> + 10 «« paper »» 13:16

766.6

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 766.10 --> - 1.1

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 766.10

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:17

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 766 --> - 3 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 765.90 -> Add

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 765.8 «« paper »» 13:18

cancelled all open limit orders «« paper »» 13:19

<NihabaAshi> That was a volatility spike downwards...

On chop days they usually bounce back but on trend days...they don't...there's more follow through to the next level.

<RussellDaytrade> feels like it going to break 765 13:21

will add 765.3

* Retrieving #futurestrades modes... 13:23

<NihabaAshi> Reminder: Password for access into #FuturesTrades will change tonight after the close. New password will be posted here @ http://p207.ezboard.com/fthestrategylabf rm88 13:25

Shorts ER2 @ 766.60 -> Add 13:29

<RussellDaytrade> Exited ER2 Long @ 767 --> + 1.2 «« paper »» 13:30

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 767.40 -> Add

Shorts ER2 @ 767.60 -> Add 13:31

:( 13:32

I did two ADDS too close to each other...I prefer them about 5 ticks apart of more when in a losing position. 13:33

It's not 2pm est and this price action still has plenty of time to turn into a rally back upwards. 13:34

Just started dumping it all 13:36

Covered all ER2 Short @ 768.20 --> - 2.7

That's the worst price of the bunch :( 13:37

ER2 volatility declining again. 13:39

Long ER2 @ 769.00 -> large size 13:46

<ItalianSharp> tough trading day niha...friday we have NFP comin up, most important number of the month...either we get a trending day before Friday or it'll be choppy until Friday... 13:48

<NihabaAshi> The week of trading will get better as the volatility will by more up and down with less equalizing. 13:49

I'm in a deep hole but nothing too difficult to get out of.

Just need to keep my patience for a good 1.2 point move.

<ItalianSharp> well, you had a great month so far...i wouldnt get stubborn on one bad trading day...if you see things arent working out today, call it quits and kick some ass the rest of the week...:) 13:50

<NihabaAshi> The reason why I'm having record breaking month is because I have been "stubborn" all month and didn't quit when things got tough on me. 13:51

<szubaark> Sometimes ill OVERTARDE killer days like today trying to go POSITIVE for the day

<NihabaAshi> I have a profit goal for the day and still plenty of time remaining to achieve that goal. 13:52

Once we near 3pm est...reality will set in at what ever level I'm at.

If I can get that 1.2 I'm back in the ball game and will try to load up the bases. 13:54

Will be very tough...those dark WRB that occurred in the drop are tough to beat and get above. 13:55

Sparky Anderson walks out ot the plate to talk to the picture... 13:58

Picture will either say its cool (keep the long) or say its not cool (reverse the Long into a Short). 13:59

<szubaark> heheh 14:00

<Brutus> This bounce has been showing weakness for a while. Low volume as well. 14:03

<NihabaAshi> Low volume just got lower. 14:04

Volatility declining too.

Gotta hold and let the next volatility spike prove me wrong or right. 14:05

<Brutus> If ES breaks yest low (again), then we will make new lows. m2c 14:08

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 768.30 -> Add

Still no volatility spike :( 14:10

<ItalianSharp> niha, it looks like some support was built down there...hopefully its enough for you to hold on and get a volatility spike in your direction 14:12

<NihabaAshi> It keeps testing that entry into the s/r zone...

Tough work for price action to get out of the x/r zone on low volatility. 14:13

x/r = s/r

<ItalianSharp> here you go niha 14:17

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 769.70 --> + 1.4

Exited 1/4 ER2 Long @ 769.40 --> + 0.4

That's a +1.10 on those contracts and not +0.40 14:18

<ItalianSharp> well done niha...being patient rewarded you 14:20

<NihabaAshi> Only need a +0.9 on my remainders instead of a +1.2 thanks to the ADDs.

If I can get that...I will load the bases. 14:21

<ItalianSharp> and then comes barry bonds for the GRAND SLAM!

<NihabaAshi> I just took an "injection"...I'm ready :)

<ItalianSharp> lol

canseco style 14:22

<RussellDaytrade> i have a theory, that when the price is dropping, it will continue to do so, until traders stop buying, ie, cry uncle, and vice versa, price will rise until traders stop selling / shorting

<szubaark> Niha! Niha we rootin' for ya 14:23

I see 3 good swings today.. market might need a little rest=KILLER CHOP 14:24

<ItalianSharp> russell, would you elaborate on your theory please? sounds interesting

<RussellDaytrade> and defining those levels makes for entry points, to go counter 14:25

use your own trading as a guidepost, or, you can use mine, as i do, in developing this theory

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 14:26

<RussellDaytrade> in many instances, i will buy on a decline, only to see the price decline furhter

i may buy again, and the price may also decline more yet

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 767.90 -> Add 14:28

<Brutus> ES new lows to come...

<NihabaAshi> Sorry...that's a Short...will correct.

<RussellDaytrade> and then, i may give up on the trade, ie, cry uncle, and even as the price may hold or drop a little more, and may be near the point where it represents a better RR profile

<NihabaAshi> Long ER2 @ 769.00 -> large size

Exited ER2 Long @ 767.90 --> - 1.1 14:29

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 767.90

<RussellDaytrade> i am no longer willing to buy it, ie, i have stopped buying

<NihabaAshi> Back to where I started at an hour ago :( 14:30

Not much time left in the trading day.

<RussellDaytrade> i am interested to hear if others may have encountered a similar experience and have felt the same way, even if they have not fully recognized it as i have described 14:34

<NihabaAshi> Shorts ER2 @ 768.50 -> Add 14:35

Russell...which comments...these...

[14:25] <RussellDaytrade> and defining those levels makes for entry points, to go counter 14:36

[14:25] <RussellDaytrade> use your own trading as a guidepost, or, you can use mine, as i do, in developing this theory

[14:22] <RussellDaytrade> i have a theory, that when the price is dropping, it will continue to do so, until traders stop buying, ie, cry uncle, and vice versa, price will rise until traders stop selling / shorting

<RussellDaytrade> yes, the general theory, and whether anyone else has encountered the same dynamic 14:37

or similar dyanmic

for example, today my real trade was a buy at 768.4, on the drop in the middle of the day 14:39

i closed the trade at 767.3 a short while after

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 768.80 --> - 0.9 14:40

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 768.80

<RussellDaytrade> and when it was at 765.5 -766 range, it actually represented a better rr profile, in my opinion, and yet, i was unwilling to buy it there, ie, i was no longer willing to buy it, 14:41

so, it reached a level where traders are not willing to buy it

thats the theory

usually a good turning point 14:42

<NihabaAshi> Not sure if this is in line with what you see...

When I see volatility get to the point that its declining to a extreme low... 14:43

I consider it a point where traders aren't willing to take action...

Then when someone or a few show up with some size...not much is needed...

The price action pops (volatility spike) to encourage traders to join in sort'uv speak. 14:44

<RussellDaytrade> i think there is correlation..

how do you measure and define volatilty N? 14:45

<NihabaAshi> I eye ball it (visual) via comparing small bodies (price contraction) to wrb bodies (price expansion) 14:46

As long as they are contracting for several intervals and then expanding for several intervals... 14:47

That's when I trade well.

It's when they equalize where the struggles begins in my trading.

Yet, that's normal for me to see about 5 trading days per month...trading day's like today.

Sometimes a little more. 14:48

Exited all ER2 Long @ 769.10 --> + 0.9 14:49

<RussellDaytrade> ok , i may need to reach for a dictionary that speaks your language, i'll get clear on the meanings over time. will likely see the market prices relative to your mentions (volatiltiy) and make adjustments

<NihabaAshi> That's a +0.30 and not a +0.90 14:50

Script error...its lost in my ADDs.

For example...for the past 6 intervals on the 3min chart...volatility has been equalize...contractions similar to expansions... 14:52

When I see that...I'm expecting a volatility spike.

However, during the middle of the trading day...its more difficult (darn near impossible) to do volatility analysis when some of the key participants are out stuffing their faces for lunch :) 14:53

May be good for a few ticks but not for points unless its a key market report day with something pending between 11am - 2pm est. 14:54

Shorts ER2 @ 769.40 -> large size 14:59

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 768.9 -> small size «« paper »» 15:00

<NihabaAshi> lost the volatility on that...it showed up for about 15 seconds :( 15:01

<RussellDaytrade> sell limit to enter short ER2 @ 767.6 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Covered all ER2 Short @ 769.20 --> + 0.2 15:04

<RussellDaytrade> trying to expand my repetoire of trading methods, and jump on buying and or selling type action, as denoted by the chart appearance on a 1 minute chart

<NihabaAshi> I'm trying to jump on any volatility and then cross my fingers that it will last for at least a point... 15:05

Last 10 trades or so hasn't been the case.

<RussellDaytrade> not my usual setp preference, therefore, my percieved 'edge' my not have as much validity 15:06

Covered all ER2 Short @ 769.3 --> - 1.7 «« paper »» 15:07

<NihabaAshi> Geeesh. 15:11

Shorts ER2 @ 768.70 -> large size 15:12

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 768.8 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Volatility has been drying up fast in the past hour...gotta grab what we can get even if its a few ticks. 15:13

Covered ER2 Short @ 769.10 --> - 0.4 15:15

Reverse and Enter Long ER2 @ 769.10

<RussellDaytrade> Covered ER2 Short @ 769.1 --> - 0.3 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> There's some contracts in at 768.70 but the worst ADD was 769.10 15:16

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 769.6 «« paper »» 15:17

.e 769.4

Exited ER2 Long @ 769.4 --> - 0.2 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 769.60 --> + 0.5 15:18

Long ER2 @ 769.60 -> Add 15:19

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 770 «« paper »» 15:20

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 77010 --> + 152481.3 15:21

<RussellDaytrade> Exited ER2 Long @ 769.8 --> - 0.2 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 770.10 --> + 1

Long ER2 @ 770.70 -> large size 15:23

<RussellDaytrade> got a good sense of what its gonna do, when it s gonna do it, just keep hetting shaken out 15:24

<NihabaAshi> A few more ticks on this size and I could go to breakeven for the day... 15:25

Time to load the bases.

Long ER2 @ 771.20 -> Add 15:26

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 771 «« paper »» 15:29

Shorts ER2 @ 771.5 -> Add «« paper »» 15:31

Shorts ER2 @ 772 -> Add «« paper »» 15:32

<NihabaAshi> :)

Green again.

Not quite yet...just took a look at my PnL statement. 15:34

<RussellDaytrade> Covered ER2 Short @ 771.5 --> 0 «« paper »»

Shorts ER2 @ 771.9 «« paper »» 15:35

prob no fill on that one 15:36

watch it continue to climb, until i am no longer willing to sell it! 15:37

<NihabaAshi> Volatility starting to decline again :(

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 771.6 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Only chance now if this goes up as a "creeper price action" where the buyers are barely ahead of the sellers.

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 15:38

<NihabaAshi> Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 772.20 --> + 1

Geeesh...still in the red hole with comissions on that exit :( 15:39

Need a 772.50 on this exit of my remainders to get green for the day including commissions.

<RussellDaytrade> Shorts ER2 @ 772.5 -> Add «« paper »» 15:40

out of bullets, no longer willing to sell it!

<NihabaAshi> Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 772.90 --> + 2.2 15:41

<RussellDaytrade> self imposed 3 contract limit

<NihabaAshi> I loaded the boat (made bases full) on that one plus a few extra contracts :) 15:42

I'm still looking to buy.

Never mind...ER2 currently testing the last remaining Dark WRB from that initial drop... 15:44

Will not do any size...maybe a few contracts.

Long ER2 @ 773.00 -> small size 15:45

<RussellDaytrade> Covered ER2 Short @ 772.5time --> + 771.6 - 772.5time + 772.5 - 772.5time «« paper »»

scratch that! 15:46

covering at 772.5, if can get

<NihabaAshi> 773.40 - 772.60 is the s/r zone of that WRB range.

<RussellDaytrade> was going to say that time was standing still again 15:47

<NihabaAshi> Exited ER2 Long @ 772.30 --> - 0.7 15:48

Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 772.30 -> large size

<RussellDaytrade> cancelled all open limit orders «« paper »» 15:51

<NihabaAshi> Covered 2/3 ER2 Short @ 770.00 --> + 2.3 15:53

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 769.3 «« paper »» 15:54

<NihabaAshi> I've gotten an extra lucky point on this...still counting. 15:55

A 769.00 gets me my profit target for the trading day... 15:56

It'll also be a huge turn around from the big red into decent green.

<RussellDaytrade> Exited ER2 Long @ 769.8 --> + 0.5 «« paper »» 15:59

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 768.70 --> + 3.6 16:00

<RussellDaytrade> my broker would be proud today!

<NihabaAshi> Same here :( 16:01

He's saying..."Mark, I'm glad we both made some money today".

"If you trade like that every month instead of just October...will give you cheaper comissions due to the volume of trades you do" 16:02

<RussellDaytrade> i am a little out of sync, gotta tough it out / thru those early entries, and wait for my setups

time to go vote, vote early and often! 16:05

<NihabaAshi> I normally don't trade this long into the close. 16:07

In the past when I've had a big losing day by 12noon est or so...

I've just called it quits and would wait for the next trading day.

However... 16:08

I usually miss a one or two big moves in the afternoon trading session.

That would bother me because my little stats showed that those losing trading days could have resulted in a decent profit had I continue.

Simply, it came down to my energy level today. 16:09

By 1pm est...I was still mentally in the game but had to do a lot of self talking to stay in the game and not panick.

<Brutus> Yes, nice comeback Niha, very impressive. The DST change has left me to sleepy to trade this afternoon. 16:10

<NihabaAshi> Brutus...I gain energy when the DST occurs...

It's the spring DST change to gets me mentally down for awhile. 16:11

<Brutus> Its 7:30 am here

<NihabaAshi> Sorry...I was talking about the time change in the fall and spring.

Brutus...where are you at ?

Australia

<Brutus> Yes

<NihabaAshi> Ok.

Don't forget all... 16:13

I will be changing the password tonight for #FuturesTrades access. 16:14

<yvberj> Being fairly new here. I've forgotten how to get the password. 16:17

<yo> gn ,all 16:34

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:50

<NihabaAshi> Take care all and see all in November :) 17:02

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away 17:03

<Awash> anyone around? 19:01

<NihabaAshi_away> Yes...I am. 19:04

Changing the passwords to the new password. 19:05

<Awash> how are you?

k

<NihabaAshi_away> Will post in a minute.

<Awash> cool

<NihabaAshi_away> Good...just got back with the toddler and spouse from trick n treating about 5 blocks of homes.

<Awash> nice

<NihabaAshi_away> Got enough junk food for the remainder of the decade :)

<Awash> i'm going to trade the morning session of the NK225 and then go out 19:06

<NihabaAshi_away> Ahhh...ok.

<Awash> :)

decade

lots of candy

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 19:11

* DisconnectedSession Close: Tue Oct 31 19:12:02 2006 19:12

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