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| Session Start: Fri May 04 08:23:47 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades |
* Now | talking in #futurestrades | 08:23 |
<X> | [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm |
| #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 09:13 |
* subq | market profile charts for today, url changed up a bit |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/er2_mp_rth.png |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/es_mp_rth.png | 09:14 |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/nq_mp_rth.png |
| http://www.charthub.com/images/2007/05/0 4/ym_mp_rth.png |
<ItalianSharp> | morning all | 09:20 |
| NFP #s came in a little below expectations | 09:21 |
| surprisingly enough, mkts are still going to open with an up-gap |
<NihabaAshi> | The markets are trying much harder to go up in comparison to going down. | 09:22 |
<ItalianSharp> | yes, that's my feeling too |
| either the NFP numbers aren't seen as that negative... |
| or there is some other reason why mkts weren't crushed yet... | 09:23 |
| also, Eurofx is holding for now... |
| and US 10yr yields were down by only 2 bps | 09:24 |
<NihabaAshi> | New York Fed President Geithner (FOMC voting member) is speaking about global economy on my side of town in Montreal at 0945am est. |
<ItalianSharp> | thanks niha | 09:25 |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1512.50 | 09:31 |
<PapaJon> | gm all | 09:32 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1511 --> + 1.5 | 09:34 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 833.00 -> medium size |
| Stole a great entry...lets see if it pays off via giving me a WRB exit. |
| Exited ER2 Long @ 832.40 --> - 0.6 | 09:38 |
| Reverse and Enter Short ER2 @ 832.40 |
<jperl> | yesterdays VWAP 831.93 |
<eminitrader> | Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1510 --> + 2.5 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 832.30 -> Add | 09:39 |
| Now my trade is in the time slot of that FED speech :( | 09:41 |
| Shorts ER2 @ 832.90 -> Add | 09:42 |
| Covered 1/3 ER2 Short @ 832.80 --> + 0.1 | 09:48 |
| Shorts ER2 @ 833.10 -> Add |
<eminitrader> | Covered Remainder ES Short @ 1512.50 --> 0 | 09:51 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered all ER2 Short @ 833.90 --> - 2.3 | 09:52 |
| Shorts ER2 @ 833.70 -> large size | 09:54 |
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<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1512 | 09:56 |
<NihabaAshi> | :( | 09:57 |
<ItalianSharp> | niha, i guess your intuition before the open about nothing stopping these mkts from going down is turning out true |
<AmazingJason> | still stuck in this range so far | 09:58 |
<ItalianSharp> | still earling in the day though...anything can happen |
<AmazingJason> | alot of resistance here |
<NihabaAshi> | It's ranging right now "within" a WRB...a WRB that shouldn't have any importance :( |
<szubaark> | Shorts NQ @ 1910 «« paper »» | 09:59 |
<NihabaAshi> | I've taken trades on the opposite side of that range and got nailed :( |
| Shorts ER2
@ 834.10 -> Add | 10:01 |
| Looking to exit when it gets back within the range of that so called "unimportant WRB". |
<eminitrader> | be back ...stpo in | 10:03 |
<jperl> | ER2 stuck in the range of the 1st STd Dev of 3 |
| VWAPs |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered ER2 Short @ 833.10 --> + 1 |
<Chilly> | Shorts ES @ 1512.00 |
<NihabaAshi> | Still holding the original Short large. | 10:04 |
<jperl> | yesterday: 833.20 |
| 1 week: 833.81 |
| 1 month: 833.66 |
<ItalianSharp> | tough price action thus far this AM | 10:09 |
<eminitrader> | Covered all ES Short @ 1512 --> 0 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 833.80 -> Add | 10:11 |
| Still jumply and retracing back into that range. |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1513. | 10:12 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 834.00 -> Add |
<jperl> | peak volume @ 833.50 | 10:13 |
| VWAP 833.28 | 10:14 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered all ADD of Short @ 833.60 -> +0.60 | 10:15 |
<jperl> | actiion still within the 1 STdDev congestion area |
<ItalianSharp> | still lots of buyers for mkts to be flirting around the highs |
<NihabaAshi> | Still holding original large Short position. | 10:16 |
<ItalianSharp> | great battle between bulls and bears | 10:17 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered all Short @ 834.20 -> -0.50 | 10:18 |
<szubaark> | Covered all Short NQ at 1913 --> - 3 «« paper »» |
| :( |
<eminitrader> | Shorts ES @ 1514.25 -> Add | 10:19 |
<jperl> | touching yesterdays 2nd STdDev 834.46 |
<szubaark> | Buys NQ @ 1913.25 «« paper »» | 10:20 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 834.10 -> small size | 10:21 |
| Covered all ER2 Short @ 834.60 --> - 1.1 | 10:23 |
| -0.50 |
<jperl> | peak volume still 833.50 |
<eminitrader> | pity the shorts ..including myself :(( | 10:24 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 834.30 -> small size |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 10:25 |
<AmazingJason> | i still think the market's headed down |
<Chilly> | Covered all ES Short @ 1514.00 --> - 2 |
| :( |
<NihabaAshi> | I finally realized its choppy and spikey...decided it was best to drop my position size dramatically. |
<szubaark> | its Friday, this could Creep higher all day Long :) |
<AmazingJason> | it's just been chopping and spiking in this trading range |
<pat255> | yup ..too choppy .. |
| got connection prob ontop of that ... | 10:26 |
<PapaJon> | yah.. i have had only one signal and it barely made me my pt1 then stopped at b/e for remainger |
<eminitrader> | i went with the daily on the ES which called for a reversal....but looks like the short term momemtum players are winning |
<AmazingJason> | damn | 10:27 |
<eminitrader> | maybe later in the day .. | 10:28 |
<NihabaAshi> | Shorts ER2 @ 835.00 -> Add |
* WannaBeBOS | is now known as BOS-lazy |
<jperl> | VWAP=peak volume=833.50 | 10:30 |
<PapaJon> | looking like a balanced day .. eh jperl? at least for now... | 10:31 |
<jperl> | volume distribution is now symmetric about the peak volume |
| yes |
<PapaJon> | churn and burn |
<Chilly> | Shorts ES @ 1515.00 |
<PapaJon> | unless ur strats are geared toward such action | 10:32 |
<Brutus> | Mexico Stocks Near Intraday Record In Early Trade; IPC +0.9% |
| So many markets at record hihgs |
| Carlos may pass Bill gates soon | 10:34 |
<NihabaAshi> | Covered all ER2 Short @ 834.20 --> + 0.9 | 10:35 |
| Geeesh...my first WRB exit all day. |
<eminitrader> | Covered ES Short @ 1513.50 --> - 0.5 | 10:36 |
| Reverse and Enter Long ES @ 1513.50 |
<Chilly> | Covered all ES Short @ 1513.50 --> + 1.5 | 10:37 |
<eminitrader> | tthats b/e +commission :) |
<NihabaAshi> | Be right back...unexpected guests as in grandparents. | 10:38 |
<eminitrader> | :)) |
* NihabaAshi | is now known as NihabaAshi_away |
<jperl> | here's what the symmetric distribution looks like..... | 10:41 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_016.png |
| volume histogram is on the left edge |
| yellow lines across the chart are the StdDevs from previous VWAPs | 10:42 |
| curvy lines are todays VWAP data |
| You want to trade this going from the low volume area to the high volume central area | 10:44 |
| as I did this morning |
<RussellDaytrade> | nice chart JP. are those SD lines dynamic also, like the vwaps? | 10:45 |
<jperl> | trades are here.... |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_017.png | 10:46 |
<pat255> | jper the std lines are drawn thry espl? |
<jperl> | RD.....SD lines are static....I could make them dynamic but they don't change much since they are from previous day, week, month | 10:47 |
| Pat.....std lines are drawn manually by me in the morning before the open |
<RussellDaytrade> | so you use then set from previous days activity, for the current day? | 10:48 |
<jperl> | yes |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1514.50 --> + 0.25 | 10:49 |
<pat255> | jper the std dev line is for today only rigth? | 10:50 |
<jperl> | The yellow lines are std Devs from previous day,week,and month |
| the curvy lines are for today | 10:51 |
| monday...I will erase these and put new ones on.... |
| lines are good for one day only |
<pat255> | so the trae if I recall is that u trade on L side if above the vwap? |
| trade |
<jperl> | Usually that would be true pat...but today because the distribution is normal.... | 10:52 |
| I did the opposite |
<pat255> | i c.. |
| so i imagine when hits the 3rd dev u short? | 10:53 |
<jperl> | correct.... | 10:54 |
| almost had that trade....but it didn't touch |
<RussellDaytrade> | let me see if I can read your thought process, as I intepret your chart construct...since I see no 2nd and 3rd SD on the downside, as there are for the upside, does that signify you are not expecting mkt to trade in that direction, so no need to include them? :) |
<pat255> | the std dev for vwap & what value u use for the 1st dev 2nd dev etc? |
<jperl> | RD... there are down side SD's but they are off the chart on the bottom | 10:55 |
<RussellDaytrade> | ok, thx, that was my second guess! |
| alright, they're really down there, would like them to appear, sometime today. :) | 10:56 |
<jperl> | pat...don't understand your question....rephrase it | 10:57 |
<pat255> | u have vwap value & then u calculate 1st std dev what value is that ? |
<Brutus> | 1929 daily, weekly and monthly |
| http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/attachment .php?s=&postid=1457005 |
<eminitrader> | Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1515 --> + 1.5 | 10:58 |
<jperl> | The std dev is computed from the VWAP and the price data.... |
| are you asking for todays values? |
<pat255> | yes ... |
<jperl> | ah...ok.... |
| right now.... |
| VWAP= 833.70 | 10:59 |
| 1std dev = 834.38 |
| 2nd std dev = 835.05 | 11:00 |
<pat255> | & 3rd |
<jperl> | 3rd STd dev = 835.72 | 11:01 |
<pat255> | ty jper ..wil look at it to c how to show it .. |
<jperl> | keep in mind these values are dynamic | 11:02 |
<pat255> | yes ... |
<eminitrader> | Exited Remainder ES Long @ 1513.50 --> 0 | 11:08 |
| Long ES @ 1513 | 11:13 |
| Exited all ES Long @ 1513 --> 0 | 11:20 |
<RDT> | test | 11:27 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 11:37 |
* codehead_afk | is now known as codehead | 11:48 |
<eminitrader> | Long ES @ 1511.75 | 12:10 |
<jperl> | ER2 still in the STd DEv congestion zone....as seen here... |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_018.png |
<RussellDaytrade> | looks promising to the downside | 12:11 |
| I'd like seeing all those vwap SD's angling down for a day and a hlaf or so. :) | 12:13 |
<eminitrader> | odds r we see new highs | 12:14 |
| the ES is what i' refer to |
| my llast line of supprt - my ma's ...if this breks ...then maybe new lows ...till then i say new higs | 12:15 |
<RussellDaytrade> | JP, on those vwap SD that are dynamic, you ever thought about incoporating the 'carry-over' values from the prvious day, so that in effect, it a dynamic continuation? | 12:16 |
<jperl> | no |
| may program it sometime if I seed the need | 12:17 |
| see |
<eminitrader> | Exited all ES Long @ 1510.75 --> - 1 |
| nq supp brokrn ..es still holding ..my pull the nq | 12:18 |
<RussellDaytrade> | the moving averages on IB charts, (the charts I use show only the current day) carry over from the previuos day, and 'enter' the chart with the previous days last values, etc...have found that specific charateristic a benefit, in many instances...thought that same effect may have value in the vwap SD, etrc | 12:19 |
<eminitrader> | supp broken on the es |
| prolly test lows | 12:20 |
<jperl> | yesterdays VWAP 831.96 | 12:22 |
<RussellDaytrade> | I have a target that is fairlky close to the 1st Sd down on your chatr...830 area, posted it earlier, have to calculate it agin to get the specific price |
| 830.76...fairly close..hopefully it goes way lower | 12:24 |
<jperl> | -1st STdDev of yesterday 830.68 | 12:25 |
<szubaark> | anybody know what caused this drop? :)) | 12:27 |
<RussellDaytrade> | 830,76 represents a modulated target, whicjh is less than the model target, so hopefully full model takes precedence and re-establishes itself. |
| pretty fkn close, I'd say |
| I need 828 and lower | 12:28 |
<jperl> | -2nd StdDEv from yesterday = 829.40 | 12:29 |
<RussellDaytrade> | 826.58 is full model...not so strongly inclined we'll see it, but it would be a treat | 12:30 |
<jperl> | 1 week VWAP = 826.33 | 12:31 |
<NihabaAshi_away> | Long ER2 @ 831.00 -> large size | 12:34 |
* NihabaAshi_away | is now known as NihabaAshi |
<NihabaAshi> | Looks like I missed a nice little down movement while away from the computer entertaining guests. | 12:35 |
| Exited 2/3 ER2 Long @ 832.60 --> + 1.6 | 12:42 |
| I caught a WRB exit (2nd one of the day) but had an error on my position size in the exit. | 12:44 |
| I only wanted to dump 1/2. |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 12:46 |
<NihabaAshi> | Long ER2 @ 832.10 -> Add |
| Exited 1/2 ER2 Long @ 832.60 --> + 0.5 | 12:50 |
| Still holding 1/3 from the original position. |
<jperl> | VWAP = 833.36 | 12:53 |
<NihabaAshi> | Exited Remainder ER2 Long @ 833.10 --> + 2.1 |
<RussellDaytrade> | modulated t on this up move is 833.27 |
<jperl> | ER2 peak volume now 832.70 | 13:50 |
| VWAP 833.30 |
<NihabaAshi> | I just got back...too many at home distractions for me today :( | 13:57 |
<RussellDaytrade> | I am detecting relative weaknesses developing, ie, muted ride this am, muted bounce that last upmove, etc, deeper selloff this midmorning, relative to price structures of yesterday, those types of things |
| this leg better break 830 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 13:58 |
<RussellDaytrade> | them vwap SD angling down yet? |
<jperl> | slightly | 13:59 |
<RussellDaytrade> | oh good, well, thats a start, will enjoy seeing them take stronger hold in the down direction | 14:00 |
| barely traded today, just a few small shorts in both acct, all winners, go figure, still short core in both accts, ap now near 828 or so | 14:07 |
<NihabaAshi> | Anybody in here having "disconnection problems" besides Asuni and Karsat ??? | 14:14 |
<ItalianSharp> | nope |
<jperl> | no |
<RussellDaytrade> | had a couple earlier today |
<ItalianSharp> | i think asuni has been having disconnection problems of his own |
<NihabaAshi> | Its something that's been going on for just a few traders for a few months now. | 14:15 |
| I'm using mIRC version 6.12 and though the problems may be due to a newer version. |
<jperl> | using 6.2 here...no problem | 14:16 |
| ER2 Chart update here.... | 14:21 |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_019.png |
| You can see how the price action took bounces off of the 1st STd Dev below yesterdays VWAP |
<RussellDaytrade> | the past two days have worked great for shorts, I began building a short too early, since then , every rally has come back in. I'll enjoy seeing them vwap SD's when and if they take a decided down move with price extensions, with vwap SD's at steeper angles down. thx for posting. :) | 14:26 |
<jperl> | yw | 14:27 |
| I'm done for the day..... | 14:28 |
| P/L statement here.... |
| http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-05-04/JP ERL_0110.png |
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<RussellDaytrade> | net 450 or so, looks good | 14:30 |
| breaktime, union job. :) | 14:31 |
* BOS-lazy | is now known as WannaBeBOS | 14:40 |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 15:10 |
<NihabaAshi> | Geesh...I missing everything today :( | 15:59 |
| Long ER2 @ 836.10 -> small size | 16:02 |
| First sunny day around here outside and every body shows up and thinks I'm not trading today :( |
| Exited all ER2 Long @ 836.40 --> + 0.3 | 16:07 |
| It was a good week of trading and a small profit today amongst all the distractions and didn't accomplish any trading goals today. | 16:09 |
| Take care all and have a safe/good weekend :) |
<X> | #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) | 16:22 |
* DisconnectedSession | Close: Fri May 04 16:31:48 2007 | 16:31 |
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