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#FuturesTrades April 11th Wednesday 2007 Trade Log

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Russell 2000 Emini ER2 Futures

Today Month Year

+27.40 +64.50 +1007.40

$2,740 $6,450 $100,740

FED Chairman Bernanke Speech and FOMC Minutes Meeting

Profit/Loss Statement

One of the keys to profitable trading is to understand the price action and one of the best ways to understand the price action is to learn about what causes the volatility.

Volatility Analysis should give you a list of usual culprits and today one of those culprits is the Fed Chairman.

Simply, keep a detailed schedule on your desk when Chairman Bernanke is speaking or any of the other Board members are speaking and wait to see if any of your favorite pattern signals appears.

Knowing when this particular type of volatility will appear will give you 1-3 big profitable trading days per month along with giving you clues when to add to a profitable position as shown in the chat log below.

Key news of the day

Commentary by M.A. Perry (a.k.a. NihabaAshi)
intradaystrategies@yahoo.com
Note: Each month there are a few trading days that we consider to produce big price movement as the result of other key trading instruments in its own market or within other markets (intermarket analysis).
You can view the charts and a few clues that's associated with the key price action at our key market archives.


#FuturesTrades purpose, benefits and access info...click here.

Session Start: Wed Apr 11 09:30:02 2007Session Ident: #futurestrades

* Now talking in #futurestrades 09:30

<X> [NihabaAshi] #FuturesTrades info @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/FuturesTradesChatRoom.htm and trade log archives @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/RecentTrades.htm

<NihabaAshi> I have a BEARISH bias at the open.

Shorts ER2 @ 819.00 -> large size 09:31

<WannaBeBOS> good entry niha 09:32

<RussellDaytrade> Covered all ER2 Short @ 818.2 --> + 1.5 «« paper »» 09:34

<jperl> ER2 1 week VWAP 817.76

<NihabaAshi> Covered 1/2 ER2 Short @ 818.00 --> + 1 09:35

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1456 «« paper »»

<AmazingJason> Long ER2 @ 818.50 09:36

* Nana_CO ----[ Covers ER2 @ 817.8 +1.5 flat ]----

<AmazingJason> Long ER2 @ 817.8 -> Add 09:37

<jperl> ER2 pausing at 1 week VWAP 09:38

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1456.25

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1455 -> Add «« paper »» 09:40

<AmazingJason> Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.90 --> - 2.5 09:41

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 Short @ 817.00 --> + 2 09:46

<jperl> ER2 peak volume 817.20

<NihabaAshi> Holding 2 contracts

Covered ER2 Short @ 815.90 --> + 3.1 09:48

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1453.5 -> Add «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Holding 1 contract for a possible "low probability" trend development.

<eminitrader> Covered 1/2 ES Short @ 1453.75 --> + 2.5 09:49

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<szubaark> Buys NQ @ 1824 «« paper »» 09:50

exit stop set NQ @ 1821 «« paper »» 09:52

<jperl> ER2 peak volume now 816.30 10:00

VWAP 817.40 10:01

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1455 --> + 0.5 «« paper »»

<RussellDaytrade> up targets on

<Brutus> u not buying RD? 10:03

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 816.5 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> :)) 10:04

<RussellDaytrade> not as strongly inclined to the longside B, actually waitng for a bounce to sell into

Exited all ER2 Long @ 816 --> - 0.5 «« paper »» 10:05

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 10:07

<RussellDaytrade> possible 818.5 if this can hold without having another bout of queasiness

Long ER2 @ 816.6 «« paper »» 10:10

Exited all ER2 Long @ 816.3 --> - 0.3 «« paper »»

<szubaark> Exited all Long NQ at 1824 --> 0 «« paper »» 10:11

<jperl> Market appears to be waiting for the EIA numbers 10:12

<NihabaAshi> If this turns into a trend day (low probability)...my 1-2 window analysis for such after the Easter Holiday was one day off :( 10:14

<Brutus> 1400/1800 Mar FOMC minutes 10:15

<jperl> Interesting seeing pictures from the NYME..... 10:16

traders just standing around waiting

<eminitrader> nice call szu 10:19

<szubaark> thx 10:20

<NihabaAshi> Volatility was low until that volatility spike a minute ago.

<RussellDaytrade> yesterday, i said 814.13, THAT is a nice call!

<eminitrader> didn't wait to get stopped out ...rather proactive reading the flow ...way to go

<NihabaAshi> Not sure if it will develop into anything especailly with the pending 1030am est EIA Petroleum Status Report just waiting to bring in "more volatility". 10:21

<eminitrader> es hovering near yest low ...will prolly see a bounce here

Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1452.25 --> + 4 10:22

holding 3

<NihabaAshi> Wish I had 3 remainders right now instead of just one contract remainder. 10:23

<eminitrader> u had a very good entry niha ...dont think it will come back there ...at least today ...prolly get a tenner on that one :) 10:27

<NihabaAshi> I was looking for a 10er yesterday and I had a good size for such. 10:28

Today I was on the light side of a large position...

<eminitrader> happens

<NihabaAshi> Reason why I only have one remainder instead of 3-4 contract remainders. 10:29

<AmazingJason> Long ER2 @ 813.60 10:30

<pdays> Number out

<NihabaAshi> Oil Index, futures and ETF's powering upwards. 10:32

EuroFX EC and EurUsd not impress so far :) 10:34

They look bored.

<eminitrader> er2 showing a srtong downtrend as compared to es/nq 10:37

<NihabaAshi> ER2 is feeling guilty after kicking my butt on Monday...

<eminitrader> he he he 10:38

<NihabaAshi> It's giving me some easy opportunities yesterday and today.

<AmazingJason> Exited all ER2 Long @ 812.8 --> - 0.8 10:44

<Nana_CO> ER to fill gap from Apr3? 10:48

<NihabaAshi> It has the volatility now for such...if it's going to do it...today's the day for such.

<eminitrader> Covered 1/3 ES Short @ 1449.25 --> + 7 10:49

holding 2

<NihabaAshi> Nice

<eminitrader> thx niha

<NihabaAshi> Starting to look like you've been hanging out with Jazz.

<Nana_CO> If so would also be 23% retracement of the low from Mar 5

<eminitrader> jazz ?

<PapaJon> Jazz .. used to visit here... is awesome trader 10:50

<NihabaAshi> The guy (former member) that ritually made 5 to 10 point trading day's in ES.

<eminitrader> k thx pj

wish i cld do that consistantly 10:51

my avg is 3 pts this yr..on a daily basis i mean 10:52

<NihabaAshi> We're now in the s/r zone of that April 3rd GAP. 10:54

<eminitrader> Es gao is 1433 ...long way to go 10:55

<NihabaAshi> Geesh...that volatility spike a minute ago pushed through several price levels like a hot knife in butter. 10:56

Had Oil not made that push upwards... 10:58

There would have been more of a "Flight to Quality" in Treasury Futures. 10:59

<jperl> this mornings trades.... 11:05

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-11/JP ERL_017.png 11:06

<NihabaAshi> FED Alerts Today: 1pm est Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks and 2pm est FOMC Minutes Meeting 11:18

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 11:19

<NihabaAshi> Welcome back Venedom 11:21

:)

<venedom> ty gm everyone

* codehead_afk is now known as codehead 11:28

<RussellDaytrade> built and sold long positions, now flat, up 280 less comm 11:52

* Looking up thn user info... 11:53

<NihabaAshi> I see the counter-thrust upwards weakening around 813.50 11:55

<RussellDaytrade> 818.86 11:56

<eminitrader> 816.50 max for today....for this trend to hold ...dont see price break thru that level as of now 11:57

prolly see a pullback 814-815.30 level 11:58

<jperl> ER2 VWAP 814.08

<RussellDaytrade> as it climbs farther, if it climbs farther, the probabilities of full up targets fullfilling increase. 11:59

<Nana_CO> thanks, jperl...much appreciated :)

<jperl> yw

<eminitrader> as per my read 816.50 is considered normal ...now breaking that wld make me think brefore selling again 12:00

only a bernarke splke wld do that today...if at all 12:01

<RussellDaytrade> great short signal yesterday when mkt didn't gain traction on that BO

<eminitrader> bottom line - never know ..just go with the moment 12:02

<RussellDaytrade> yes, i'm expecting that my target projections will fulfill off the back of the mkt reaction to burnwanke

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1451.5 «« paper »» 12:04

<eminitrader> Shorts ES @ 1451.50 -> Add 12:09

will add a 3 lot 52.75 if it gets there.. 12:10

be back t1 for this lot 49.50 12:14

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 12:31

<pat255> hi all... 12:52

@office these days ..:( dang seminars etc

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1451.5 --> 0 «« paper »» 12:56

<eminitrader> Covered all ES Short @ 1452.25 --> + 3.25 13:09

<pat255> hi em u da man...

<Brutus> Shorts ES @ 1453.5 «« paper »» 13:10

<eminitrader> thx...sorry u missed that trade pat

<pat255> yes em @office these days ...:(

wish they could just send mucheck very 2 weeks & I trade from home .lol

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1455 «« paper »» 13:12

<eminitrader> :)

<RussellDaytrade> setting up nicely for an acceleration into my targets 13:13

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1453.75 «« paper »» 13:30

<pat255> 22 minutes til FOMC minutes 13:38

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 13:43

<jperl> ER2 @ 1st StdDev of VWAP 816.37 13:45

<Brutus> cancelled all open stop orders «« paper »» 13:47

Will wait for FOMC

<NihabaAshi> Short ER2 ADD @ 815.40 -> small size (2 contracts) 13:55

<pat255> niha report coming ..

<NihabaAshi> Yep...worth the risk due to the increasing volatility.

<pat255> & niha takes a position ..

k... but u are right .. 13:56

<NihabaAshi> Easier to reverse a loser when I'm wrong in comparison to low volatility price action.

<pat255> i c good point ..

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 ADD @ 815.00 -> +0.40

<Brutus> Covered all ES Short @ 1451.25 --> + 2.25 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> Still holding my 1 contract remainder from the original Short position.

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<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1451.50 13:59

Exited all ES Long @ 1450.50 --> - 1 14:00

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1449.25 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> that was fast

<NihabaAshi> Short ER2 ADD @ 813.70 -> small size (2 contracts)

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1448 «« paper »» 14:01

<RussellDaytrade> Long ER2 @ 813.6 «« paper »»

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1448 --> - 1.25 «« paper »»

<eminitrader> Long ES @ 1448

Exited 1/2 ES Long @ 1450 --> + 2 14:02

fast or what

<NihabaAshi> Covered ER2 ADD @ 812.50 -> +1.20 14:04

Still holding the original remainder position.

I expected more follow-through below but it spooked me out early with the weird jumpy price action. 14:05

<eminitrader> Exited 1/3 ES Long @ 1449.50 --> + 1.5

Exited ES Long @ 1448 --> 0 14:07

Reverse and Enter Short ES @ 1448

looks like a bit early on this sell 14:09

Covered all ES Short @ 1448 --> 0 14:11

<NihabaAshi> Had it not been for that counter-upthrust price action prior to the recent drop... 14:16

<Brutus> Long ES @ 1447.5 «« paper »»

<NihabaAshi> I would have easily reached my 809.60 WRB pt level for the remaining contract.

<Brutus> exit stop set ES @ 1446 «« paper »» 14:18

<NihabaAshi> There's some support here at current price levels. 14:19

<jperl> ER2 peak volume now 811.80 14:22

<Brutus> Exited all ES Long @ 1446 --> - 1.5 «« paper »» 14:35

<NihabaAshi> Covered Remainder ER2 Short @ 808.90 --> + 10.1 14:45

<eminitrader> nice one :))

<pat255> gl vvn niha ...

<asuni> great niha :-)

<NihabaAshi> Thanks and I'm done for the day. 14:46

Just found out spouse is going out for the evening with her girlfriends...leaving me to take care of the toddler and infant till 11pm.

See all later...going to get some extra rest. 14:47

<eminitrader> well u have fun ..

* NihabaAshi is now known as NihabaAshi_away

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<pat255> niha read the fomc meetings right ..so many times ..

<eminitrader> yep 14:48

<pat255> lot of folks stand aside on fomc niha makes money lol 14:51

<jperl> done for the day.....trades here... 15:12

http://charts.dacharts.com/2007-04-11/JP ERL_018.png

<RussellDaytrade> Exited all ER2 Long @ 812.2 --> - 1.4 «« paper »» 15:28

<X> #FuturesTrades Info -> Chat room for realtime trade posting by traders of Emini Futures (ER2, ES, NQ, YM), EuroFX Futures (EC), Eurex Derivatives (DAX, ESTX50), Euronext Futures (FTSE100, CAC40), Treasury Futures (ZF, ZN, ZB), NYMEX Futures (CL, NG, HO, QM) and Exchange Traded Funds (DIA, GLD, IWM, OIH, QQQQ, SPY) 16:04

<WannaBeBOS> nice trading today niha 16:05

* DisconnectedSession Close: Wed Apr 11 16:45:35 2007 16:45

Google:

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We are proud to say that our chat room members are from the following geographical areas in the world:

Argentina, Australia, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Hong Kong (China), Israel, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Portugal, Puerto Rico (U.S.), Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Spain, United States and Venezuela.

In addition, below are the trading instruments our chat room members monitor closely to make trade decisions:

CME Emini Futures ES, NQ and ER2

CBOT mini-sized Dow Futures YM

Eurex Index Derivatives (futures) DAX and DJ Euro Stoxx50

Eurex Fixed Income Derivatives BUND, BOBL and Schatz

Euronext Futures FTSE-100 and CAC-40

CME Futures EuroFX EC

Treasury Futures T-Notes ZN, ZF and T-Bonds ZB

Forex Currencies EurUsd, EurYen and UsdCdn

Exchange Traded Funds DIA, IWM, QQQQ, SPY, OIH, XLE and GLD

NYMEX Energies Light Crude Oil CL, e-miNY QM and Natural Gas NG

COMEX Metals Gold GC

Hang Seng Index Futures HSI

Last of all, if you have any questions about the above blog like commentary, listing of our favorite trader blogs, above realtime posted trades or about the strategy discussion chat rooms associated with our fee-based strategies (#TheStrategyLab and #SwingTradingTSL)...

Don't hesitate to ask your questions and we'll reply back as soon as possible.