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 Post subject: March 31st Wednesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +12.70
PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 8:47 pm 
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Trade Journal By M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)

Trade journals are crucial in preventing us traders from becoming complacent or content with our trading plan or the markets because without having the ability to review archives of past trading days in a forever changing market...we won't know it's time to adapt when change occurs in the markets because broker statements alone doesn't help us keep that edge in comparison to a trade journal. In addition, although this journal contains advertisements involving my trade methods, it does contain useful trading tips a few times per week. Thus, if you're looking for trading tips that can improve your trading and understand that profitable trading involves more than just entry signals...consistently read this trade journal and the #FuturesTrades chat room logs where I post my trades in real-time from entry to exit (see link below) via my IRC user name wrbtrader that's the same as my user name on twitter.

Today's #FuturesTrades chat room logs is archived @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ftchat/forum/viewtopic.php?f=72&t=487.

Quote:
Today's results are 8 wins : 2 losses. Nice ending to the month of March considering the prior two trading days produced only small profits due to missed trade opportunities. Today's key change in supply/demand occurred when the 2:40pm est 5min interval engulfed an open WRB Zone (1:25pm est interval).
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Trading Tip: Price Action only trading involves charts or bid/ask/sales screens without any indicators.


FYI - You can ask me questions here at the forum or you can tweet me on twitter about anything related to today's trading or related to your own trading.

Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader


In addition, posted below are direct links about my trade methodology or trading approach that enables me to identify key trading areas in the price action that represent changes in supply/demand and volatility along with being able to exploit these changes via WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis).

http://www.thestrategylab.com/WRBAnalysisTutorials.htm

http://www.thestrategylab.com/TradeStrategies.htm

Also, if you're interested in having free access to one of my profitable trade strategies along with earning extra income with little effort...join my referral program @ http://www.thestrategylab.com/ReferralProgram.htm

My Trading Performance: +12.70 points in the ICE Russell 2000 Emini TF ($TF_F) Futures
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Stocks: Strong Quarter Ends With A Loss
Stocks: Strong quarter ends with a loss
By Julianne Pepitone, staff reporter
March 31, 2010: 7:21 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks ended lower Wednesday, but higher for the quarter after a strong showing in March, as downbeat jobs and manufacturing reports cooled a recent runup.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) lost 50 points, or 0.5%, to end at 10,857.31. The S&P 500 index (SPX) slipped 4 points, or 0.3%. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) lost 7 points, or 0.3%.

Wall Street reached the end of a solid quarter, even with Wednesday's losses. The Dow gained 4.1% over the first three months of the year, after a 5.2% advance in March, while the S&P added 4.9% for the quarter. The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the strongest quarterly showing, up 5.7%.

Wednesday's declines were broad based, with 25 of the blue-chip Dow's 30 components ending lower.

"The market has finished higher on 23 of 25 trading days, so now it's taking a break and adopting a wait-and-see attitude," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co., noting that the market is closed on Good Friday.

Stocks ended slightly higher Tuesday, pushing the Dow to a fresh 18-month high as investors digested mixed reports showing a rise in consumer confidence and continued weakness in the housing market.

Jobs: ADP released its monthly report on employment before the opening bell, showing that private-sector employers cut 23,000 jobs in March. This was in sharp contrast to expectations of a 40,000 job increase, according to economists surveyed by Briefing.com.

In February, the private sector cut a revised 24,000 jobs. ADP has not reported an increase in monthly payroll numbers since January 2008, when 34,000 private-sector jobs were added.

ADP was "a disappointment," said Hogan, especially because expectations are fairly high for Friday's government report on the unemployment rate.

"Census jobs should boost Friday's data, but it's a tree that falls in the forest where no one stands," Hogan said. "I can't remember the last time such an important report came out when the market is closed."

Economy: The Chicago PMI, a regional reading on manufacturing, was released shortly after the market opened and pushed equities further down. The index slipped to 58.8 in March from 62.6 the previous month. Economists predicted a smaller drop, to 61.

Also after the market opened the Census Bureau reported factory orders for manufactured goods rose 0.6% in February, slightly higher than analysts' expectations but significantly less than January's 2.5% increase.

"We've gotten to that point in time when we need Goldilocks-type data, meaning it falls in just the right range," Hogan said. "If reports are too positive, people will be worried the [Federal Reserve] will raise interest rates; too negative, and concerns are raised that the recovery is weak or nonexistent."

Energy stocks and oil prices gained earlier in the session after President Obama announced plans to open large sections of the eastern Gulf of Mexico and an area off the Virginia coast for oil drilling.

Companies: Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) plunged 5% in after-hours trading after the company reported a profit of $710.1 million, or $1.27 per share. That missed estimates from analysts polled by Thomson Reuters, who estimated earnings of $1.28 per share.

With the first quarter of the year ending with Wednesday's session, Hogan said the market will be looking to see if company earnings estimates are hiked for 2010.

"The new focus is going to be on corporate America's ability to start earning money," Hogan said. "We'll see more mergers and stock buybacks -- and investors will be watching to see how companies deploy their cash."

Outlook: The strong showing in the first quarter of the year means the market will likely see a pullback or about 5-7% in the next quarter, said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners.

"We could see a mild correction as early as mid-April, even when companies are in the middle of reporting strong first-quarter earnings," Cardillo said. "That sentiment is already priced into the market."

Throughout the rest of 2010, Cardillo expects continued focus on job market data and corporate earnings. Stocks could end the year 3-5% higher, he said.

World markets: Asian stocks finished lower. In Japan, the Nikkei index lost 0.1%, and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong slipped 0.6%.

In Europe, London's FTSE 100, France's CAC 40 and Germany's DAX ended slightly higher after a choppy session.

The dollar and commodities: The dollar fell against the euro and British pound but rose on the yen.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose $1.39 to settle at $83.76 a barrel, the highest closing price in almost 3 months.

COMEX gold for June delivery added $7.80 an ounce to $1,116.10.

Bonds: Treasury prices were higher, with the 10-year yield falling to 3.83% from 3.87% late Tuesday. Bond prices and yields move in opposite directions.

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Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Disappointment over the latest ADP Employment Report hampered stocks for the entire session, which concluded on a relatively weak note.

Another 23,000 private payrolls were cut in March, according to the most recent ADP Employment Report. Though that was the smallest decline in two years, the news prompted participants to pressure stocks since the addition of 40,000 jobs had been expected.

The surprise drop in payrolls has called into question projections for the official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due Friday and is expected by many to show an increase of 185,000 jobs. Unlike the ADP figure, the government's tally is subject to a weather-related rebound and will include 2010 census workers.

The mood among market participants dwindled further with the midmorning release of the Chicago PMI for March. It came in at 58.8, but the consensus had called for 61.0 after a reading of 62.6 in February.

Though generally disregarded, factory orders figures offered a positive surprise to participants. Orders for February increased 0.6%, which was slightly more than the expected 0.5% increase, while orders for January were revised higher to reflect a 2.5% increase.

Despite that small dose of positive data, participants remained fixated on the ADP numbers. Given that jobs data is a key consideration in the Fed's monetary policy decisions, the slower-than-expected improvement in the jobs picture put added pressure on the dollar, which fell 0.5% against a basket of foreign currencies. Still, the dollar's decline didn't do anything for the broader market this session.

Energy stocks outperformed the broader for the entire session, but couldn't compel the rest of the stock market to follow it. Energy advanced 0.4% amid news that the Obama administration will propose allowing offshore oil and natural gas exploration in part of the Gulf of Mexico. The news drove drillers to a 2.6% gain.

Higher crude oil prices also helped. The price of oil climbed 1.7% to close pit trade at $83.76 per barrel. Contracts had actually encountered some midmorning pressure amid news of a larger-than-expected build of 2.93 million barrels, but it didn't take long before sellers backed off.

Financials made up the only other sector to finish in positive territory. They netted a collective 0.2% gain amid strength in regional banks (+1.4%) and multiline insurers (+1.5%).

Trading volume was rather unimpressive, given that this session marked the the quarter's end. Some expected that a degree of portfolio rebalancing would lead to an increase in share volume at the major exchanges. Instead, volume on the NYSE was in-line with recent averages.

The Fed's planned purchases of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities also came to an end today. The plan's expiration makes for an inflection point in the capital markets.

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.4%), Financials (+0.2%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.8%), Tech (-0.6%), Industrials (-0.6%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Materials (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.5%), Utilities (-0.3%), Health Care (-0.3%) DJ30 -50.79 NASDAQ -12.73 NQ100 -0.5% R2K -0.8% SP400 -0.5% SP500 -3.84 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1008/2.37 bln/1668 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1211/1.15 bln/1815

3:30 pm : Oil and gas prices diverged in the latest session of pit trade. Specifically, crude oil prices climbed 1.7% to close pit trade at $83.76 per barrel. Oil prices had actually encountered some midmorning pressure amid news of a larger-than-expected build of 2.93 million barrels, but it didn't take long before sellers backed off.

As for natural gas, contract prices dropped 2.5% to $3.88 per MMBtu. Natural gas prices had been up overnight, but sellers stepped in at the start of pit trade and kept the pressure on for the entire session.

With some help from a drop in the dollar, precious metals made impressive gains this session. Gold prices closed with a 0.8% gain at $1114.50 per ounce. Silver settled at $17.53 per ounce, up 1.1%.

Despite considerable strength in oil and precious metals, the CRB Commodity Index still slipped to a 0.1% loss. Such a slight decline means the CRB still stands above its 50-day moving average. DJ30 -49.20 NASDAQ -7.91 SP500 -3.23 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1149/1.66 bln/1492 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1324/660 mln/1668

3:00 pm : A sudden flurry of selling pressure has undercut the stock market. The slide has been generally modest, but nonetheless broad based.

Shares of retailers have been hit especially hard. As a group, retailers are down 0.9%. That trims the group's year-to-date gain to just above 9%.

Weakness among shares of retailers has the consumer discretionary sector down 0.7%, which makes it the worst performing sector this session. Year-to-date, consumer discretionary plays make up the third best performing sector; they are up slightly more than 10% since the start of the year. Besting the sector, financials (+0.2%) are up almost 11% year-to-date and industrials (-0.4%) are up more than 13% in 2010. DJ30 -42.70 NASDAQ -6.36 SP500 -2.55 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1202/1.50 bln/1424 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1379/588 mln/1601

2:30 pm : Action remains mixed in the broader market. That has left the major equity averages to drift sideways along the neutral line.

Though this is the final session of the quarter, there hasn't been much of an increase, if any, in trading volume. Many market pundits had expected the quarter's end to bring a certain degree of portfolio rebalancing that would lead to an increase in share volume at the major exchanges.

This date also marks the end of the Fed's planned purchases of up to $1.25 trillion of agency mortgage-backed securities. According to The Wall Street Journal, the Fed's purchases of such securities absorbed a flood of assets that otherwise would have needed buyers. DJ30 -12.55 NASDAQ +3.48 SP500 +0.62 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1502/1.35 bln/1101 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1637/537 mln/1331

2:00 pm : The stock market continues to struggle to make its way up from the neutral line. Still, stocks are up markedly from the lows that they set in the early going. At its worst point of the session, the S&P 500 was down 0.6%.

Stocks were dropped to those lows as lingering disappointment over a discouraging ADP employment report was exacerbated by a worse-than-expected Chicago PMI reading. Those reports have generally overshadowed a weaker dollar, which remains near its session low with a 0.6% loss. DJ30 -15.12 NASDAQ +2.64 SP500 +0.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1448/1.22 bln/1144 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1561/495 mln/1361

1:30 pm : The broader market continues to trade sideways at the flat line, but financial stocks have garnered enough support to ascend to a 0.4% gain, which is second only to the energy sector's 0.7% gain. Regional banks (+1.7%) and multiline insurers (+1.7%) are the primary sources of strength in the financial sector, whereas drillers (+3.0%) continue to drive the energy sector. DJ30 -15.42 NASDAQ +2.08 SP500 +0.03 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1436/1.14 bln/1155 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1526/467 mln/1394

1:05 pm : Strength among energy stocks has helped the broader equity market recover from disappointment related to the latest ADP Employment Report. However, the stock market has become stuck at the neutral line.

The mood among market participants quickly deteriorated this morning when it was learned that the latest ADP Employment Report showed that 23,000 private payrolls were shed in March. Though that was the smallest decline in two years, an addition of 40,000 jobs had been expected. The report has brought into sharper focus the official nonfarm payrolls report, which is expected by many to show an increase of 185,000 to payrolls, given weather-related rebounds and the addition of government workers for the 2010 census. The government's official report is due Friday.

The ADP's portrayal of slower-than-expected improvement in the jobs picture has acted as a reminder to many that the outlook for interest rates is expected to remain at exceptionally low levels for an extended period of time, as the Fed has said in past statements. Though lower borrowing rates are a positive for stocks, they can be detrimental to the dollar, which is currently at a session low with a loss of 0.6% to competing currencies.

Stocks have traded inversely with the dollar during recent months, but the broader market has been unable to benefit from the dollar's decline this session. Instead, stocks have generally been bogged down by the disappointing jobs data.

The jobs data has been a particular burden for consumer discretionary stocks, which are often most challenged by softer consumer spending amid a persistently challenging job market. The consumer discretionary sector is down 0.5% at the moment. Even Dollar General (DG 25.43, -0.36), a discount retailer that recorded double-digit growth in its top line and exceeded earnings expectations for the latest quarter, is under pressure.

Honeywell (HON 45.70, +0.75) has secured support, however. The company recently increased its earnings outlook.

News that the Obama administration will propose allowing offshore oil and natural gas exploration in part of the Gulf of Mexico has given a boost to drillers (+2.2%), which have sent the energy sector to a 0.5% gain. A rebound in oil prices to a 1.1% gain at $83.25 per barrel after a larger-than-expected build in weekly crude oil inventories has also helped the sector.

Weakness in the broader market has mired the benchmark S&P 500 where it started the session, though. DJ30 -17.76 NASDAQ -0.10 SP500 -0.40 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1340/1.05 bln/1228 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1491/435 mln/1428

12:30 pm : Unable to extend its move up from its session low, the stock market is stuck where it started the session. Small-cap stocks and mid-cap stocks have managed to make modest gains, though. As such, the Russell 2000 is up 0.3% and the S&P 400 is up 0.2%.

Airlines have ascended to some of the best gains this session. In turn, the Amex Airline Index is up 1.1%. DJ30 -22.45 NASDAQ +0.63 SP500 -0.26 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1333/940 mln/1206 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1497/401 mln/1391

12:00 pm : The stock market has made its way to the neutral line, while the Nasdaq has poked into positive territory to trade at a session high. The Dow is stuck in negative territory, though.

Energy stocks have extended their lead over the broader market. The sector is now up 0.6% as drillers ascend to a 2.7% gain, which has been linked to news that the Obama administration will propose allowing offshore oil and natural gas exploration in part of the Gulf of Mexico.

Meanwhile, oil prices have reclaimed some of their gains from earlier this morning. The commodity, though still shy of its session high, is currently up 0.9% to $83.10 per barrel. DJ30 -16.25 NASDAQ +2.22 SP500 +0.02 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1370/832 mln/1165 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1514/360 mln/1364

11:30 am : The stock market remains mired in negative territory, even though the dollar remains near session lows with a 0.5% loss relative to a basket of major foreign currencies.

Consumer discretionary stocks are under the most pressure at the moment. The sector is currently down 0.6% as participants push against shares of the companies that are expected to be challenged most by softer consumer spending amid a persistently challenging job market, which saw another 23,000 private payrolls shed in March, according to the latest ADP Employment Change Report.

Amid such consumer headwinds, some discount retailers have exhibited relative strength. Specifically, Dollar General (DG 25.23, -0.56) saw its top line for the fourth fiscal quarter improve at a double-digit clip from the prior year and exceeded earnings expectations. Despite those feats, the stock has fallen amid broader market weakness. DJ30 -26.23 NASDAQ -0.93 SP500 -1.54 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1243/705 mln/1230 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1354/319 mln/1507

11:00 am : Despite a larger-than-expected build in weekly oil inventories and a subsequent pullback in oil prices, energy stocks have recovered from their morning slide so that they now trade with a collective gain of 0.4%.

Financials also made an upward push in recent action, but the sector has slipped some and now trades just above the neutral line. Financials were weakened by diversified financial services stocks in the prior session, but that group has steadied in the latest round of action to trade with a tame 0.2% gain. However, multiline insurers are up substantially with a 1.2% gain.

Despite leadership from the two sectors, the broader market has yet to make its way out of negative territory. Instead, it remains hampered by weakness among the eight other major sectors. DJ30 -26.00 NASDAQ -0.34 SP500 -2.06 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1282/575 mln/1136 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1350/270 mln/1473

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index has moved back near session lows, currently near 81.00, which has provided some upside to most commodities.

May crude oil moved into positive territory overnight and pushed to morning highs of $83.76 per barrel around the open of pit trading. Ahead of today's inventory data, crude was trading 1.2% higher at $83.37 per barrel. Following the data, which showed a build of 2.929 million barrels vs. consensus of a build of 2.5 million barrels, crude ticked lower and is currently 1% higher at $83.16.

May natural gas traded in positive territory overnight. However, at the open of pit trading, the energy component fell sharply into negative territory and to new session lows of $3.94 per MMBtu. Currently, natural gas is trading just above those lows at $3.94 per MMBtu, down 0.1%.

Weakness in the dollar index continues to provide price support to the precious metals group, which is trading near session highs. April gold and May silver hit its morning highs of $1118.70 per ounce and $17.63 per ounce, respectively, in recent trade and are sitting just under those highs. Gold is 1% higher currently at $1117.20 per ounce and silver is 1.5% higher at $17.59 per ounce. DJ30 -42.25 NASDAQ -4.06 SP500 -3.36 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1138/396.6 mln/1225 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1232/194.0 mln/1527

10:00 am : Stocks recently extended their morning slide as a disappointing Chicago PMI reading for March hit news wires. The figure came in at 58.8, but the consensus had called for 61.0 after a reading of 62.6 in February.

In the latest dose of data, factory orders for February increased 0.6%, which is slightly more than the expected 0.5% increase. Orders for the prior month were revised markedly higher to reflect a 2.5% increase.

Early movers: Trading up -- ARQL +85.7%, ATSG +22.1%, IMMR +12.9%, OMER +10.1%, FSII +9.8%, AKF +8.9%, ISIS +7.8%; Trading down -- APWR -13.1%, ONP -12.8%, HEAT -12.4%, AEN -12%, WXCO -11.3%, BIOF -10.4%, ENCO -10.1%, ZZ -9%, ZOOM -7.8%, HHGP -7.5%, CAGC -7.1%

Advancing Sectors: Energy (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Consumer Discretionary (-0.7%), Utilities (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.5%), Consumer Staples (-0.5%), Tech (-0.4%), Telecom (-0.3%), Industrials (-0.3%), Financials (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Materials DJ30 -38.55 NASDAQ -7.74 SP500 -4.13 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 877/268 mln/1407 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1021/145 mln/1695

09:45 am : The broader market is down with a modest loss, but materials stocks and energy stocks have benefited from a 0.5% drop in the Dollar Index. More specifically, the materials sector is up 0.3% and the energy sector is up 0.2%; they are the only two sectors that currently trade in positive territory.

Within the materials sector, gold stocks are up 1.9% as the price of gold bullion rises 1.1% to $1117 per ounce. As for the energy sector, oil and gas drillers are up 1.2% as oil prices bounce 1.3% to $83.45 per barrel ahead of the weekly oil inventory report, which is due at 10:30 AM ET. DJ30 -27.36 NASDAQ -3.55 SP500 -3.73 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 853/145 mln/1314 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1035/90 mln/1566

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.00. Disappointment over the March ADP Employment Report has pressured stock futures this morning, such that a lower start to the session looks to be in order. The report precedes the government's official nonfarm payrolls report, which is due Friday, so market participants have started to question the soundness of the consensus call for an increase of 185,000 payrolls in the tally from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, the ADP report does not incorporate the sort of weather-related rebound that could be seen in the BLS data.

There is still some more data yet to come this morning; the Chicago PMI for March is due at 9:45 AM ET and factory orders figures for February are due at 10:00 AM ET.

Though there were a few corporate news items, including increased guidance from Honeywell (HON), this morning's dose of data is likely to drive early action in the stock market. That said, though, increases in participation should also take into consideration that this is the final session of the quarter, so some portfolio juggling could come into play.

Also, the Fed ends its planned $1.25 trillion purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities today.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -4.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -7.50. U.S. stock futures are near premarket lows as pressure persists in the wake of a disappointing ADP Employment Report.

The mood in Europe has also deteriorated. As such, the continent's major bourses have retreated to varied losses. In its own economic news, inflation in the 16 countries that use the euro spiked to its highest level in 15 months as consumer prices in the eurozone increased 1.5% during March. Meanwhile, unemployment across the eurozone increased to 10% in February from 9.9% a month earlier. However, the unemployment rate in Germany declined to 8.5% in March. Germany's DAX is currently down 0.5%, even though advancing issues currently outnumber decliners in the bourse. However, Deutsche Bank (DB) has been a considerable source of weakness. In France, the CAC is currently down 0.9%, though its declining issues and advancers are in perfect balance. Financial services giant BNP Paribas is especially weak, though. Britain's FTSE was last quoted 0.5% lower. Its decliners outnumber its advancers by nearly 2-to-1.

Elsewhere in Europe, Bank of Ireland (IRE) said it is working with a syndicate of international investment banks to help raise capital, according to The Wall Street Journal. Bank of Ireland posted a steep loss for the nine months ended Dec. 31.

Also, Moody's reportedly raised its outlook for the Baltic economies as the economies stabilize and prospects for recovery improve. Specifically, Moody's lifted the outlooks for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania - the three worst economies in the European Union in terms of economic decline last year - from negative to stable, according to Associated Press.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.5% and Japan's Nikkei slipped 0.1%. Toshiba was weak after the company decided to withdraw from overseas LCD panel production and to sell its Singapore plant to AU Optronics (AUO). In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng closed 0.6% lower. Heavyweight HSBC (HBC) proved to be the biggest drag on the big board. However, several mainland banks were strong as Bank of Communications hit a four-month high after it reported a quarterly profit that exceeded expectations. In mainland China, the Shanghai Composite shed 0.6% to end a three-session streak of gains. According to reports, China launched its long-awaited trial program for margin trading and short selling Wednesday. According to The Wall Street Journal, the rollout of the new businesses is meant to better prepare investors for the April 16 launch of stock index futures.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -3.70. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -6.00. Stock futures have weakened markedly in the wake of the latest payroll numbers. Released at 8:15 AM ET, the latest ADP Employment Report showed that 23,000 jobs were shed from private payrolls in March. While that is the smallest decline since an uninterrupted streak of job losses started in February 2008, it still came as a negative surprise since the consensus had called for an addition of 40,000 jobs for the month. Further, figures for February were revised downward to reflect 24,000 job losses.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.80. The dollar is down against competing currencies, but that hasn't helped stock futures, which are flat-to-slightly lower at the moment.

The caution among premarket participants precedes the 8:15 AM ET release of the latest ADP Employment Report, which often provides a directional indication for the government's official jobs number (due Friday) relative to expectations. Economists, on average, expect the ADP Report to show an addition of 40,000 jobs to March private payrolls. Later this morning, a Chicago PMI reading (9:45 AM ET) and factory orders figures (10:00 AM ET) are due.

A few companies have made announcements since the prior session's close; among them, Honeywell (HON) raised its earnings guidance, Dollar General (DG) posted better-than-expected bottom line results, while SAIC (SAI) missed the consensus earnings estimate and lowered its earnings forecast. Research In Motion (RIMM) and Mosaic (MOS) are scheduled to report quarterly results after the closing bell.

06:45 am : S&P futures vs fair value: -0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: -1.30.

06:45 am : Nikkei...11089.94...-7.20...-0.10%. Hang Seng...21239.35...-135.40...-0.60%.

06:45 am : FTSE...5685.89...+13.50...+0.20%. DAX...6156.58...+14.10...+0.20%.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

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