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 Post subject: March 30th Tuesday 2010 Emini TF ($TF_F) points +3.90
PostPosted: Wed Mar 31, 2010 9:20 am 
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Dow Carves Out New 18-Month Highs
By Alexandra Twin, senior writer
March 30, 2010: 6:47 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The Dow Jones industrial average ended at a fresh 18-month high and the rest of the market churned Tuesday as investors weighed a rise in consumer confidence, more weakness in the housing market and a stronger dollar.

The Dow Jones industrial average (INDU) added 11 points, or 0.1%, closing at 10,907.42, the highest finish since 11,143.13 on Sept. 26, 2008. The S&P 500 index (SPX) was little changed. The Nasdaq composite (COMP) added 6 points, or 0.3%.

Stocks rose early in the session as investors welcomed a better-than-expected reading on consumer confidence and took in stride a report showing continued weakness in the housing market.

But the advance petered out near midday after an extended run-up over the last few weeks. Bank shares slipped, dragging down the KBW Bank (BKX) index by 0.8%.

The afternoon saw the major stock indexes bouncing around both sides of the unchanged line before finally turning higher in the last hour. Gains in 3M (MMM, Fortune 500), Verizon Communications (VZ, Fortune 500) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ, Fortune 500) gave the Dow a boost.

Stocks have risen in six of the last seven weeks as investors looked past worries about a global debt crisis and instead focused on signs of an economic recovery. On Monday, the government said personal spending rose for the fifth month in a row.

The market is in a bit of a tug-of-war right now, with Greece and other euro zone debt issues, questions about higher interest rates, higher taxes and the deficit all on the negative side, said Alan Lancz, president at Alan B. Lancz & Associates.

But Lancz said that on the positive side are the economic strength, the improvement in earnings and, in the short term, the impact of end-of-quarter rebalancing, which tends to bring in new money.

"Consumer confidence today was better than expected, and while that's not enough to be a catalyst for the market, it is enough to keep the tug-of-war going," he said.

The major indexes are also struggling with those 18-month highs, he said. The Dow ended at an 18-month high Tuesday and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 ended at 18-month highs a week ago.

Economy: The Consumer Confidence index rose to 52.5 in March from 46.4 in February, according to a report from the Conference Board, released shortly after the start of trading. Economists expected the index to rise to 51.

Home prices fell in January, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city index released in the morning. Prices eased 0.4% in January from December levels and were down 0.7% from year-earlier levels, in line with estimates. Prices in December fell 3.1%. After rising for five straight months, prices have now fallen for four in a row.
0:00 /3:09Better alternatives to 401(k)

Apple: Shares of the company surged to an all-time high Tuesday after the Wall Street Journal said late Monday that the company is developing an iPhone for the Verizon (VZ, Fortune 500) network. Currently, the iPhone is only available on the AT&T (T, Fortune 500) network. Apple (AAPL, Fortune 500) shares gained 1.5%, AT&T shares lost 2.1% and Verizon shares added 3%.
Treasury's Citi sale: The last jackpot

The dollar and commodities: The dollar gained versus the euro and the yen, pressuring dollar-traded gold prices. However, oil prices still managed gains.

COMEX gold for May delivery fell $6.80 to settle at $1,103.50 per ounce.

U.S. light crude oil for May delivery rose 20 cents to settle at $82.37 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Bonds: Treasury prices tumbled, raising the yield on the 10-year note to 3.87% from 3.86% late Monday. Treasury prices and yields move in opposite directions.

World markets: In overseas trading, European markets were mixed. Asian markets ended higher, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng index up 0.7% and Japan's Nikkei index up 1%. To top of page

Image

Yahoo! Finance

4:30 pm : Large-cap tech issues gave a modest lift to the Nasdaq, but the broader market finished flat after interest in a better-than-expected consumer confidence report dissipated.

A stronger-than-expected improvement in the May Consumer Confidence Index to 52.5 further improved what was already a generally positive tone in the early going. Though gains were modest, the morning advance was broad based.

However, the mood among market participants deteriorated as the dollar made a move up from negative territory to finish with a 0.3% gain against competing currencies. The greenback's gain was somewhat restricted by strength in the British pound, which garnered support amid news that Britain's fourth quarter GDP was upwardly revised to reflect a 0.4% increase.

Still, credit analysts at S&P remain concerned about Britain's fiscal deficit. Such concern offers another reminder that even historically stable global economies face sovereign debt challenges. To its credit, though, France's AAA rating was affirmed by Fitch analysts, who also said the outlook for France's grade is stable.

Strength in the dollar dragged down the broader market, but tech stocks showed resilience. That gave the sector a 0.5% gain and helped the Nasdaq edge out its counterparts.

Apple (AAPL 235.83, +3.44) was a primary leader in its space after reports indicated that the company is developing a network that will enable its highly coveted iPhone to team with more companies than just AT&T (T 25.95, -0.56). The news dropped shares of T, but Verizon (VZ 31.23, +0.78) staged a strong gain.

Financials were part of the reason that the broader market struggled to post a gain. The sector, which is second to tech by market weight, finished with a 0.7% loss. That made it the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. Diversified financial services stocks (-1.3%) were the weakest performers in the sector; they were also among the most actively traded names by volume in the entire market.

Overall trading volume was underwhelming once again as fewer than 1 billion shares traded hands on the NYSE. The low-volume trade has been consistent in recent weeks as participants continue to take a cautious stance, wary of jumping in or out of the market for fear of a correction or missing further gains.

Advancing Sectors: Tech (+0.5%), Materials (+0.2%), Industrials (+0.2%), Health Care (+0.1%), Consumer Staples (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: Financials (-0.7%), Telecom (-0.4%), Utilities (-0.2%)
Unchanged: Energy, Consumer Discretionary DJ30 +11.56 NASDAQ +6.33 NQ100 +0.3%% R2K +0.3% SP400 +0.1% SP500 +0.05 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1446/2.07 bln/1246 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1552/907 mln/1462

3:30 pm : The equity markets are trading in the middle of the session's range, near an afternoon high.

Commodities were also little changed this session. They finished 0.3% higher, collectively.

May Crude oil chopped above the $82 level for most of the session. It closed 0.2% higher at $82.37 per barrel. After bouncing off a 6-month low at $3.85 per MMBtu, May natural gas actually closed 1.5% higher at $3.98 per MMBtu this session. Natural gas futures had been down 30% since mid-February and 36% since early January.

Strength in the dollar this morning caused precious metals to trade modestly lower this session. April gold closed down 0.5% at $1104.50 per ounce while May silver closed down 0.3% at $17.33 per ounce. DJ30 +16.32 NASDAQ +6.50 SP500 +0.82 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1424/1.68 bln/1235 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1529/653 mln/1466

3:00 pm : Stocks recently made a modest, upward push into positive territory. The move was somewhat stronger among large-cap tech issues, which have taken the Nasdaq 100 to a 0.4% gain.

Though overall action remains rather underwhelming, 49 stocks in the S&P 500 have managed to set fresh 52-week highs this session. There weren't any names that fell to new 52-week lows. DJ30 +16.24 NASDAQ +6.50 SP500 +1.10 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1447/1.56 bln/1217 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1570/607 mln/1412

2:30 pm : Declining issues have a slight edge over advancers in the S&P 500, but the generally balanced tone has kept many traders on the sidelines. In turn, trading volume remains low.

Though the tone of trade this session has been rather quiet and action has been largely uneventful of late, volatility has fallen. Specifically, the Volatility Index is down 1.0%. DJ30 -4.77 NASDAQ -0.06 SP500 -1.15 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1222/1.45 bln/1415 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1359/560 mln/1623

2:00 pm : Stocks are still stuck in a sideways crawl. That has made for some rather listless and lackluster action this afternoon.

Commodities are also mixed. As such, the CRB Commodity Index is up a tepid 0.2%. However, natural gas prices are up solidly. They were recently quoted 1.1% higher at $3.96 per MMBtu. DJ30 -2.35 NASDAQ +0.32 SP500 -1.18 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1228/1.34 bln/1392 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1398/520 mln/1566

1:30 pm : Stocks recently slipped back into negative territory after they had drifted sideways along the flat line for about an hour. The dip has been modest.

Financials remain out of favor. The sector is down a tad more than 0.8%, which puts it in-line with its session low. Of the 79 financial sector components, 61 are in negative territory. Citigroup (C 4.10, -0.08) is a primary laggard. On the other end, E*TRADE (ETFC 1.63, +0.04) has been able to assemble a solid gain. DJ30 -7.94 NASDAQ -0.51 SP500 -1.65 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1168/1.25 bln/1438 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1310/485 mln/1645

1:00 pm : Stocks in the broader market slipped from a 0.4% gain to a 0.4% loss as a modest bounce by the buck induced a flurry of selling pressure, but the major equity averages have since recovered to trade at the unchanged mark.

The generally positive mood this morning was helped by a better-than-expected consumer confidence reading for March. Retailers responded best as they climbed to a near 1% gain. They are now up just 0.2%, collectively.

The tone of trade waned as the dollar turned a modest loss into a modest gain. The greenback is currently up 0.2% against a basket of competing currencies, but the British pound continues to outperform the buck.

Strength in the British pound comes amid news that Britain's fourth quarter GDP was upwardly revised to reflect a 0.4% increase. Still, credit analysts at S&P remain concerned about Britain's deficit, which has called into question the country's AAA rating.

As an aside, analysts at Fitch affirmed France's AAA rating and said the outlook for the grade is stable, according to Dow Jones.

Financials have hampered the broader market. The sector is currently down 0.6% and remains the worst performing sector in the S&P 500.

Large-cap tech has shown relative strength, but the broader market has failed to rally behind it. Apple (AAPL 235.70, +3.31) is one of the better performers this session. The company is reportedly developing a network that will enable its highly prized iPhone to team with more companies than just AT&T (T 26.01, -0.50). DJ30 +1.51 NASDAQ +1.39 SP500 -0.49 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1213/1.15 bln/1364 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1398/450 mln/1530

12:30 pm : The Dow has poked back into positive territory. Its counterparts are close behind. There is no direct news item to account for the recovery from session lows, rather it appears that sellers have simply taken a step back.

Overall trade remains somewhat listless, though tech stocks continue to trade with a modest gain -- the tech sector is currently up 0.3%. While tech is the largest sector by market weight and its members currently sport some of the best gains, the broader market has been slow to follow it. DJ30 +8.46 NASDAQ +0.13 SP500 -0.46 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1180/1.08 bln/1399 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1418/408 mln/1498

12:00 pm : Stocks have made a move up from their session lows, but both the Dow and the Nasdaq ran into resistance at the unchanged mark. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 lags by a slight margin.

As for the broader market's underlying sectors, tech has managed to make its way back into positive territory. The sector is currently up 0.2% with help from large-cap plays like Apple (AAPL 236.02, +3.63).

Though not an official member of the 10 major sectors in the S&P 500, retailers have rallied to a 0.3% gain. Still, that is less than half of the gain that they sported in the early going, when a better-than-expected consumer confidence reading spurred gains.

Financials remain under stiff pressure. The sector is down 0.8%, which is considerably more than the next worst performing sectors, energy (-0.2%) and health care (-0.2%). DJ30 -1.66 NASDAQ -0.89 SP500 -1.16 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1182/980 mln/1373 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1312/370 mln/1577

11:30 am : Stocks recently surrendered their gains, but were able to find some support at the neutral line. That support has since faded and given way to another bout of selling pressure, which has dropped stocks to fresh session lows in negative territory.

An advance by the Dollar Index to a fresh session high appears to be the primary reason for the stock market's downward move, which has left all 10 major sectors to trade with a loss. The Dollar Index is now up 0.3%. DJ30 -13.23 NASDAQ -5.70 SP500 -2.81 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1101/840 mln/1416 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1205/321 mln/1666

11:00 am : Financials have faltered. The sector now trades with a 0.3% loss after it was up modestly in the early going. The loss makes it the worst performing sector in the S&P 500. Investment banks and brokerages (-1.0%) are presently among the weakest financial issues.

Though still in positive territory, the broader market also retreated in recent action. Stocks secured support at the neutral line and managed to reclaim some of their gains, but overall gains are only half of what they were at session highs. DJ30 +22.52 NASDAQ +5.79 SP500 +1.89 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1498/660 mln/965 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1729/240 mln/1092

10:30 am : The US Dollar Index pushed back into positive territory and to fresh session highs of around 81.38. This caused a modest sell-off in most commodities, some of which hit fresh morning lows in recent trade.

May crude oil touched lows of $81.90 per barrel earlier this morning, but has since recovered its losses. Crude began to rally around 9:45am ET, almost hitting the $82.60 level, which is just under overnight highs of $82.74 per barrel. Currently, crude is up 0.2% at $82.37 per barrel.

May natural gas has spent most of its session trading modestly lower. Around 30 minutes before the open of pit trading, natural gas hit today's highs of $3.95 per MMBtu. Immediately after hitting those highs, the energy component fell sharply into the red and to fresh session lows of $3.85 per MMBtu. Natural gas spiked back into positive territory minutes ago, but is now back near the flat line at $3.93 per MMBtu

The recent strength in the dollar index pushed April gold and May silver to new morning lows of $1104.80 and $17.30, respectively. Gold just pushed to a fresh session low at $1104.30 per ounce, currently down 0.5%, while silver is 0.4% lower at $17.32 per ounce.

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lost 39 points overnight, or 1.3%, to close at 2,982 and extend its losing streak to 11 days, falling 16.6% in that time. That follows a period where the BDI advanced in 19 of 20 sessions, gaining 39.3%. DJ30 +15.19 NASDAQ +3.94 SP500 +1.04 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1458/447.0 mln/925 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1676/171.5 mln/1073

10:00 am : Despite a relatively lackluster start, stocks recently made a strong, upward move that made for broad-based gains. Notably, the move came even though the dollar turned fractionally positive against competing currencies. It also preceded the latest reading on consumer confidence.

The Consumer Confidence Index for March came in at 52.5, which marks a stronger-than-expected improvement from the 46.4 that was recorded for February. The consensus had called for a reading of 51.0 for March.

Shares of retailers have responded to the data by making a run up to a 0.8% gain.

Early movers: Trading up -- LGL +40.3%, ENCO +29.9%, WEDC +27.3%, AEN +24.7%, WHRT +16.3%, OPXA +14.5%, BNHNA +14.2%, HNR +12.8%, ALN +12.1%; Trading down -- FONR -15.8%, CHGS -13%, HPJ -11.9%, OXM -10.3%, LDK -8.5%, TNDM -8.3%, MPG -7.7%, AIB -7.5%, IPCI -6.9%, MSN -5.9%

Advancing Sectors: Materials (+0.7%), Tech (+0.7%), Industrials (+0.6%), Consumer Discretionary (+0.4%), Consumer Staples (+0.3%), Utilities (+0.2%), Telecom (+0.2%), Energy (+0.1%), Financials (+0.1%)
Declining Sectors: (None)
Unchanged: Health Care DJ30 +39.22 NASDAQ +12.34 SP500 +4.27 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1508/290 mln/801 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1877/120 mln/806

09:45 am : The three major indices are flat-to-slightly higher in the first few minutes of trade. Underlying action is a bit mixed.

However, the telecom (+0.3%) and tech (+0.4%) sectors have put together a strong start as participants react to news that Apple (AAPL 236.68, +4.29) is developing a network that will enable its highly prized iPhone to team with companies like Verizon (VZ 31.07, +0.62).

Energy is under a bit of pressure after it led gains in the previous session with a 1.8% gain, though. The sector is currently down 0.3%, more than any other major sector. DJ30 +11.03 NASDAQ +5.25 SP500 +0.56 NASDAQ Adv/Vol/Dec 1356/160 mln/842 NYSE Adv/Vol/Dec 1465/82 mln/1097

09:15 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.50. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.00. Stock futures have slipped from their morning highs, but a slightly positive tone persists. The mood has been helped by a modest dip in the Dollar Index, which is currently off by 0.1%.

The British pound has shown considerable strength against the dollar. The pound's strength comes amid news that Britain's fourth quarter GDP was upwardly revised to reflect a 0.4% increase and word that credit analysts at S&P have warned that Britain's deficit may have put the country's AAA rating in jeopardy. As for British equities, action has been lackluster. Such is also the case among Europe's other major bourses.

Corporate news flow has been slow for the second straight day although Apple (AAPL) is reportedly developing a network that will enable its highly prized iPhone to team with more companies than just AT&T (T).

As for economic news, the S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index for January came in as expected, but the seasonally adjusted 20-city composite made a surprise 0.3% increase. Consumer confidence data for March is still to come at 10:00 AM ET.

09:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.80. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +3.80. Stock futures have eased back so that they now point to a flat start for the session. There hasn't been any individual news item to account for the dip, but the greenback has gained some ground against competing currencies to now trade with a fractional loss.

Commodities are a bit mixed in early trade as gold prices slip to a 0.2% loss at $1108.40 per ounce and oil prices trade flat at $82.17 per barrel in its first few moments of pit trade. The CRB Commodity Index is up 0.1%.

Just released, the S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index for January came in at 145.3, which is in stride with the 145.0 that had been expected. The 20-city composite came in with a 0.3% month-over-month increase, which is better than the 0.3% decrease that had been expected.

08:30 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +1.10. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +6.30. Action is lackluster in Europe, where Britain's FTSE is flat amid news that in the fourth quarter the country's economy grew at 0.4%, which is a faster rate than previously estimated, and comments from analysts at Standard & Poor's that Britain may lose its top notch credit rating unless drastic cuts to the country's deficit are made. The warning follows recent news that even though an AAA rating was affirmed for the country, a negative outlook also remained. France's CAC is up just 0.1% at the moment, though declining issues have a 3-to-2 advantage over advancers in the index. Total (TOT) is a primary source of support as it rebounds from the prior session. In Germany, the Dax is up roughly 0.1% at the moment. E.On is leading the advancing issues, but Siemens (SI) has been a considerable drag on trade.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei advanced 1.0%. Canon (CAJ) and Kyocera (KYO) were primary leaders. According to reports, industrial production in Japan was down a seasonally adjusted 0.9% in February. That was worse than expectations for a 0.5% monthly contraction. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng advanced 0.7%. Banking issues of Industrial & Commercial Bank and Construction Bank of China led the advance. The Shanghai Composite mustered a 0.2% gain, which came on top of its 2.1% advance in the prior session.

08:00 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +2.30. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +7.00. Though moderate, continued weakness in the dollar has helped prop up stock futures. Meanwhile, Europe's major bourses are essentially flat after Asia's major markets scored varied gains.

Corporate news flow remains light, but The Wall Street Journal has reported that Apple (AAPL) is developing a network that may allow more companies to carry its iPhone. Shares of AAPL are up 2.1% to $237.38 each in premarket trade, while shares of Verizon (VZ) are up 3.0% to $31.36 each and AT&T (T), the current carrier of the iPhone, has seen its shares pushed 1.6% lower to $26.10 each ahead of the opening bell.

Home price data from the S&P/CaseShiller Index is due at 9:00 AM ET, then the widely-watched Consumer Confidence Index at 10:00 AM ET.

06:25 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +0.90. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +4.80.

06:25 am : Nikkei...11097.14...+110.70...+1.00%. Hang Seng...21374.79...+137.40...+0.70%.

06:25 am : FTSE...5703.15...-7.50...-0.10%. DAX...6155.44...-1.40...0.00.

Special thanks to Yahoo! Finance and CNNMoney for their market summaries. gm

Best Regards,
M.A. Perry
Trader and Founder of WRB Analysis (wide range body analysis)
Image@ http://twitter.com/wrbtrader

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